|No.4 October 2008|
|Crop Prospects and Food Situation|
North African countries have been seriously affected by high international cereal prices due to their high dependence on imports. Governments have implemented a series of measures aimed at offsetting the sharp increase in world prices, including the waiving of tariffs, price controls and subsidies, which have put a considerable strain on public finances. In Algeria for example the bread subsidy system is estimated to cost the Government about USD 50 million each month, while in Egypt total expenditure on subsidies (including food and energy subsidies) in fiscal year 2006/07 (July-June) was estimated to be 56 percent higher than in 2006/07. In spite of these measures high inflation continues to undermine purchasing power and limit access to food across the subregion. In Egypt, the most affected country, the year-on-year rate of inflation in urban areas reached 23.6 percent in August 2008 up from 6.9 percent in December 2007, driven mainly by price increases in the food sector where the year-on-year rate of inflation jumped from 8.6 percent in December 2007 to 30.9 percent percent in August 2008. The inflation rate for the country as a whole is much higher, estimated at 25.6 percent. Similarly, in Morocco and Tunisia, inflation remains relatively high although a slight decrease was observed in August. This year’s increased wheat production in the subregion, notably in Morocco and Egypt, is expected to ease the effects of rising international commodity prices on access to food in these countries.
Harvesting of the winter grains (mainly wheat and barley), which make up the bulk of the subregion's cereal crop, has been completed. FAO’s latest estimates put the subregion’s aggregate output of wheat (the main crop) at 15.6 million tonnes, 16 percent up from the previous year's drought-reduced level, while that of barley is put at some 3.16 million tonnes, about 8 percent up from 2007. In Egypt, the largest producer of the subregion, 2008 wheat output is about 9 percent up from last year’s average crop. In Algeria, the wheat crop is also estimated above average by about 7 percent. In Morocco, cereal production recovered significantly from last year's drought-reduced crop, although output remained below average. By contrast, in Tunisia in spite of Government incentives to farmers to increase production, wheat output declined about half, mainly as a consequence of insufficient soil moisture at planting and subsequent erratic rains in the main growing areas.
High and rising food prices continue to affect consumers’ purchasing power and access to food across the subregion in spite of the various measures taken by governments. Prices of imported rice have shown the highest increases. In Senegal, where rice is one of the major staple foods, the price in Dakar in July 2008 was more than double its level a year earlier. The situation is not better for domestically produced millet, the major staple in countries like Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, as prices in August in Niamey, Bamako and Ouagadougou were about 39, 28 and 46 respectively above their levels a year ago . Cereal prices usually increase during the lean season when availability is limited and demand high, but they are also influenced this year by the exceptionally high levels of international commodity prices. Latest data show, however, that coarse grain prices have started declining in September in some countries, reflecting the arrival of new crop supplies from this year’s harvests in the markets. In Accra ( Ghana) for instance, the price of maize declined by 20 percent in September compared to August. Slight price decreases were also reported in several areas in Niger. Improved food supply is expected to lower prices further after widespread harvesting begins in October across the subregion.
In addition to measures taken by governments to support immediate food availability and access of the vulnerable to emergency food assistance, productivity enhancing safety nets have been provided in several countries, in most cases in the framework of large agricultural development initiatives. For instance, the target of Senegal’s Great Offensive for Food and Abundance (GOANA) is to more than double rice production to 500 000 tonnes this year. About 34 000 tonnes of subsidised fertilizer have been distributed as of late August according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Similarly, nearly 117 000 tonnes of fertilizer have been sold at subsidized prices in the framework of the Government of Mali’s “rice initiative” whose aim is to increase the country’s rice production by 50 percent in 2008/09. Several other Governments have launched similar programmes in recent months, which included inputs distribution to farmers. Although there are very few yield and area data available now to assess the impact of these programmes, early forecasts point to substantial increases in areas planted to food crops. According to the results of the mid-term assessment carried out by the Government of Mali in August, the area planted with rice increased by over 53 percent compared to last year. The coarse grains area is also estimated to have increased significantly. Similar trends are anticipated in other countries. Moreover, since the beginning of the growing season rains and soil moisture have been generally adequate to allow satisfactory development of crops. Indeed, rains were so abundant in some cases that localized flooding was reported in August in several countries. In particular, precipitation has been sufficient and well distributed in Nigeria, the largest producer of the subregion.
In short, overall early crop prospects are favourable in Western Africa and the current tight food situation is expected to ease somewhat from October onwards, provided favourable weather conditions continue through October.
In Cameroon and the Central African Republic, harvesting of the first maize crop is nearly complete in southern parts, while the later maturing cereal crops are generally developing satisfactorily in northern areas. Rains and soil moisture have been generally adequate since the beginning of the cropping season, allowing satisfactory development of crops. Larger domestic crops in 2008 would ease the impact of rising international commodity prices. In the Central African Republic, however, agricultural recovery continues to be hampered by persistent civil unrest and inadequate availability of agricultural inputs, notably in northern parts where nearly 300 000 people have reportedly been uprooted from their homes over the past two years. Continuing insecurity in both Chad and the Darfur region of Sudan threaten to further destabilize the situation in northern parts of the country.
The harvesting of the 2008 main season cereal crops has been concluded in Somalia and Uganda, while it is well underway in Kenya and Tanzania. In Ethiopia the harvest of the secondary “belg” crop has been recently completed. The harvest of the main 2008 cereal crops in Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, sown earlier in the year, will start in few weeks’ time.
Successive seasons of poor rainfall in parts of Kenya and Ethiopia and inadequate rainfall from April to June 2008 in Somalia, has led to the failure of seasonal crop production, deterioration of pastures and low availability of drinking water. September rains in southern Somalia and western Kenya have eased conditions but more rainfall is needed for water supplies and pastures to recovery.
In Eritrea, the 2008 main “Kiremti” season cereal harvest will start soon. While poor rains in June had delayed the start of the season in both the traditional and mechanized sectors of Gash Barka, Debub and Maekel regions, about normal rains in July had a positive impact on the vegetation growth. However, satellite imagery indicates a vegetation index lower than average in North Red Sea region, reflecting below-average rains during the first months of the year. Thus, despite an increase in the area sown, the aggregate output of cereals, mainly sorghum and millet, is expected to be similar to last year’s crop. Notwithstanding significant increases in the last few years, domestic cereal production is inadequate to cover the requirements and large quantities of cereals have to be imported.
In Ethiopia, The poor secondary season “belg” rains led to delayed plantings and partial failure of the crop that was recently harvested, particularly in lowlands of Oromiya, Somali and SNNP regions. Although this crop accounts for only a small portion of the total national cereal production, in Amhara and Tigray regions, where output is severely reduced, a large number of people depend on this crop for about half of their annual food consumption.
After a late start to the current main “meher” season rains, precipitation began to increase in July improving crops and pasture conditions. However, notwithstanding the continued rains in August and early September, deficits remain in localized areas in Tigray and Afar. To the south, in the northern areas of Oromiya and Somali regions, unusual early September rains have benefited pastures and drinking water supplies.
In Kenya, the long rains maize season in the grain basket started well in April but the rains were irregular up to mid-June, followed by a dry spell before they resumed in July. Those farmers who could afford the use of adequate fertilizer are expecting a good crop but, on average, maize output from the grain basket is expected to be lower than the previous season’s as a result of erratic rainfall, reduced area, rising prices of fuel and agricultural inputs and the high cost of labour. In addition, in January, most farmers were displaced following the civil unrest and those not affected were able to cultivate only a portion of their farm due to the increased cost of agricultural inputs. The Ministry of Agriculture has estimated the long-rains maize production this year at 2.25 million tonnes, 11 percent lower than in the 2007/08 season. The output from the short-rains maize crop to be sown soon - should rains start on time and be adequate for the rest of the season – is forecast at an average level of 360 000 tonnes. In an effort to increase cereal production the Government has initiated a number of projects which include diversification of crops, intervention in the input supply with provision of seeds, tractors for hire and a credit facility for the farmers. In addition, the Government has recently announced to have set aside about USD 140 million to subsidize the imports of fertilizers, the cost of which increased considerably immediately after the post-election violence earlier in the year.
In Somalia, the main “gu” season cereal crop, recently harvested, has largely failed as a result of a late start and poor performance of the rains in most parts of the country. According to the Somalia Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU), the 2008 Gu cereal production, estimated at 85 000 tonnes, is about 42 percent below the post-war (1995-2007) average and follows two below-average seasons (Gu 2007 and Deyr 2007/08).
The overall poor performance of the Gu rains has also contributed to a deepening drought and water crisis in pastoral areas. Light rains in early June led to a replenishment of water resources but arrived too late to benefit the crop. Subsequent heavy rains have caused some flooding in Mogadishu. Dry conditions have prevailed also in the central pastoral regions of Galagadud and Hiran as well as in several pastoral areas of the north.
In Sudan, prospects for the main sorghum and millet crops to be harvested towards the end of the year are uncertain due to delayed onset of the rains. After a below-normal rainfall in July, precipitation began to increase in August. These rains had mixed consequences: caused floods in parts of Kassala State in the east and in parts of Aweil, East Twic, and Nassir, but alleviate persistent dryness in Upper Nile and Jonglei states and improved pasture conditions in Kapoeta. The area planted for the current season is reported to be average and the availability of agricultural inputs is reported as normal to above normal. Rains during the remainder of the season will be critical for the final outcome of the crops.
In the United Republic of Tanzania, the harvesting of maize is complete in the southern lowlands, but continues in the bimodal and unimodal growing areas. Reflecting normal rains, the output is expected to be slightly higher than last year and some 18 percent more than the average of the past five years. The good harvest is expected to meet national food requirements, putting downward pressure on wholesale cereal prices, which are already reported to have declined.
In Uganda, harvesting of the main coarse grain crops is near completion. Normal rains in most of the country’s growing areas point to a normal crop and livestock production. In contrast, severely reduced outputs, for the second consecutive year, are expected in the poor Karamoja region where many farmers have not planted their crops due to delayed and erratic March-September rains.
Food security in the subregion continues to worsen as a result of crop failures, trade disruptions, high food and non-food prices, conflicts, and inadequate availability of food, water and pasture. In several countries, needs continue to rise while food aid pipelines face shortages. As a result, a high level of food insecurity is reported in large areas of a number of countries.
In Djibouti, four consecutive poor rainy seasons, high staple food prices, soaring inflation and lack of adequate Government and donor resources, led to significant reductions in poor household food consumption in both rural and urban areas. Some 340 000 people, nearly half of the population, are reported to be currently in need of assistance. Limited food availability and access have resulted in mass migration of households to urban areas, rising level of child malnutrition and increased livestock mortality. In addition, urban and rural populations are facing severe water shortages which, in urban areas have resulted in water rationing. The most vulnerable and food-insecure people are in the north-west and south-east, where households depend heavily on livestock for food and income.
In response to the emergency, WFP started the distribution of food rations to 55 000 people in rural pastoral areas. Other interventions urgently needed to prevent a further deterioration in the food security conditions include: food distribution to cover all 155 000 rural residents in need; restocking and asset-building programmes; resources to increase the number of feeding distribution centres countrywide and, in urban areas, a voucher or cash-for-work programme and intensive water delivery by tanker.
In Eritrea, the current high food prices and inflation continue to affect a large number of vulnerable people while new and continuing regional tension could lead to further massive displacement and humanitarian needs. Disease outbreaks including cholera and malaria remain a concern. This condition will be further aggravated by the inadequate safe water sources and sanitation facilities and other endemic diseases, such as yellow fever and meningitis.
In Ethiopia, poor secondary season "belg" rains and a late start to the current main "meher" season rains have created a rather alarming food situation. More than 10 million people have been affected by the drought which, between January and May, has hit large sections of southern, central, western and north-eastern Ethiopia. The drought led to the failure of a harvest that has left 4.6 million people needing emergency food aid and 5.7 million in drought-affected areas requiring other handouts such as additional cash or food transfers. On 22 September 2008,WFPlaunched an appeal to the international donor communities for USD 460 million to feed 9.6 million people affected by drought, rising food prices and conflict. About one-fourth of the people in need live in the arid and troubled Somali regions in the east where has not rained for three years.
Large numbers of livestock have died and unusual migrations in search of water and pasture are reported in several parts of the country, particularly in the Somali region. By contrast, western Ethiopia has experienced abundant and well distributed rains since the season started in late March. WFP reports some improvement in the nutritional situation in parts of southern Oromiya and SNNPR due to a combination of food aid interventions and the start of green harvest of maize, potato and haricot beans. Livestock conditions have also reportedly improved in most areas. However, the supply situation remains critical in most areas. Gode, Zafder, Korahe, Warder and Liben zones in Somali region continue to report critical water and food shortages. Increased level of migration, reduced daily food intake, poor livestock conditions and subsequent mortalities are also reported. A recent report released by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) indicates that the food inflation rate in August was 46.9 percent, an increase of 28.3 percent compared to the food inflation rate in August 2007, but lower than the previous three months of this year. By contrast, the country’s overall level of inflation rate has been steadily increasing over the past six months to reach in August 33.6 percent – more than double the rate in August 2007- from 29.6 percent in July. In an effort to reduce the impact of the high food inflation rate on poor people, the Government decided to cancel the value-added and turnover taxes on food grains and flour - which constitute more than half of the country’s consumption. The Government has also set up measures which include provision of direct and indirect subsidies, and has spent ETB 372 million (USD 38 million) to subsidize wheat and ETB 3.52 billion (USD 366 million) to subsidize fuel.
In Kenya, according to a recent national food security assessment prepared by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), the food supply situation of more than 5 million people in urban slums and rural areas will deteriorate further in the coming six months if external support is not granted. In rural areas the people in need are estimated at 1.38 million and the slum-dwellers are between 3.5 to 4.1 million. The worst affected are the people living in the pastoral areas of the Northern and Rift Valley regions such as Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Baringo, Marsabit, Wajir, Moyale and Garissa. Other areas affected include the agro-pastoral and marginal agricultural areas and Tana River in the eastern and coastal parts of the country.
According to the KFSSG report, the current food insecurity is mainly due to the poor performance of the long-rains season compounded by the spread of the Peste de Petits Ruminants (PPR) livestock disease, sharp increases in food and non-food prices, and escalating conflicts over water and pasture in drought-affected areas in northern Kenya.
In Somalia, the evolving humanitarian disaster is one of the worst in world. The scale, magnitude and speed at which the crisis is deteriorating are alarming and profound. Within the first six months of this year the number of people requiring emergency livelihood and humanitarian support increased 77 percent, from 1.83 million to 3.25 million, affecting 43 percent of the entire population of the country. The rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation is due to a combination of several issues which include: increasing food prices, a significant devaluation of the Somali Shilling, disruption of internal markets and internal trade, massive displacement (currently estimated by FSAU at more than 1.1 million), and mounting civil insecurity. Moreover, the extreme current food insecurity is being exacerbated by reduced humanitarian access which - at a time of sharply increased requirements in the last few months - has held back response actions. In the southern and central regions, where almost three-quarters of the people in need of vital humanitarian aid are present, armed groups attack aid workers, severely restraining the extent and range of humanitarian activities. Urban and rural households in these areas have already utilized most coping mechanism to react to the current crisis caused by crop failure - as a result of below-normal April-June rains - high food and fuel prices, and continued unrest.
In Sudan, households in the eastern parts of the south remain highly food insecure due to food shortages as a result of crop losses, isolation from markets, and insecurity. Following armed conflict on 13 and 14 May 2008, an estimated 50 000 people fled from Abyei. Most of these people moved into households of relatives and friends, leading to 40 000 more people from the host communities being vulnerable and bringing the total number of people in need of relief assistance to 72 300. Displacements and loss of livelihoods are expected to continue in the western region of Darfur. Overall, the conflict affected and displaced populations and vulnerable residents in Darfur, returnees in South Sudan, in the East and Three Areas, and refugees in the East have been identified by WFP as the primary groups requiring international assistance due to the continuing conflict in Darfur and the post-conflict settlement problems in other areas of the country. The requirements of 5.9 million people most adversely affected have been estimated at 677 990 tonnes of food.
In Uganda, according to a report of the Ministry of Disaster Preparedness released in mid-September, many areas of the country in the next two months could be hit by heavy rainfall. The report indicates that the epicentre of the rainfall is expected to be in eastern Uganda where 3.5 million people are recovering after last year’s floods that destroyed their crops. Should the rains materialize, this would have a negative impact on the highly food insecure district of Karamoja where more than 700 000 people are food insecure and in need of emergency food aid as a result of prolonged insecurity, falling livestock prices, a severe attack of honeydew on sorghum, flood damage in 2007 and high cost of agricultural inputs. Compared to 2004 the current price of a 50 kg bag of nitrogen has risen three times. The Government has provided some farm equipment and seeds to farmers, but the population still needs food relief to bridge supplies up to the next harvest. Recent surveys indicate acute malnutrition at over 15 percent in Moroto and Nakapiripirit districts. Adequate food stocks and market supplies are ensuring constant food security in other bimodal areas of the country.
The prices of main staples throughout the subregion continue to be well above the long-term average. However, prices have started to decline in Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania and parts of Uganda in response to increased availability from new crop supplies and the effects of government measures adopted to improve domestic availability.
In Eritrea, prices for food in Asmara have steadily increased since July 2007 reflecting the general rises in international markets. The retail price of wheat flour in July 2008, quoted at USD 1 821 per tonne was more than double the price prevailing a year earlier. In Ethiopia, grain prices continued to increase in 2008 after weakening slightly at the end of 2007. Since food prices in Ethiopia have continued to increase despite successive bumper harvests, it is unlikely that prices will decline after the “meher” harvest, which will start soon. Thus, there are other factors, in addition to supply and demand forces, that contribute to the price rises in Ethiopia. Some of the reasons include: high liquidity in the economy, high fuel prices, an inadequate grain market system and price speculation. The price of wheat in Addis Ababa in July increased to USD 643 per tonne from USD 623 per tonne in June. In the same market, white maize was quoted in July at USD 563 per tonne compared to USD 536 per tonne a month earlier
In Kenya, the price of maize in August in the Nairobi market, quoted at USD 319 per tonne, was some 16 percent lower than the peak of USD 379 reached in May this year. Similarly, the price of maize in the Mombasa market in August declined to USD 329 per tonne compared with the peak of USD 363 per tonne in June this year. In Somalia, poor consecutive harvests, growing demand from IDPs, increased civil insecurity, rising price of fuel and international food commodities, and market disruptions resulted in a sharp increases in food prices. Recently, the price of imported sorghum and imported brown rice was reported to have increased five times and four times, respectively, compared to the prices prevailing a year earlier. In Sudan, the wholesale price of wheat in Khartoum, which fluctuated between USD 541.56 per tonne and USD 733.68 per tonne in the period October 2007 and February 2008, had increased to USD 766.79 per tonne in April; in June declined to USD 604.78 per tonne, to rise again to USD 752.41 per tonne in July. In southern Sudan, sorghum prices have increased in response to seasonal shortage of cereals, growing demand for IDPs, insecurity and high cost of transportation linked to the rainy season. These price trends are likely to continue until the green harvest of crops starts.
In the United Republic of Tanzania, the price of staple commodities is declining steadily in response to increased domestic stocks, following the maize harvest in the southern lowlands, and the continued export ban. However, prices are still above the five-year average primarily due to high fuel and transportation costs. Wholesale price of maize in Dar-es-Salaam declined from the peak of USD 335 per tonne in January 2008 to USD 239 per tonne in August. In Uganda, despite a harvested average crop, the retail price of maize in Kampala, after a decline in June to USD 259 per tonne, has risen again to USD 295 per tonne in August. However, in other maize producing areas, such as Arua, maize prices are reported to be lower than both last year’s levels and the long-term average.
The revised estimate of 2008 total cereal production (including forecasts for small amounts of wheat output of the current secondary season in a few countries) shows that the subregion harvested a record level of cereals. This, however, is primarily due to a significant increase in maize and other cereal harvest in South Africa. Excluding South Africa the aggregate output of the other countries was down compared to last year, although it remained above the five-year average (see Figures 6 and 7). A recovery in output from the previous poor year also in Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique did not offset reduced crops in Zambia, Malawi, Angola and Zimbabwe. Production of maize, the main staple crop in the subregion, is estimated at 20.2 million tonnes in 2008, some 28 percent higher than the less than satisfactory outcome of the previous year.
In South Africa, by far the largest producer of the subregion, the 2008 maize and total cereal harvests show 70 percent and 56 percent increases, respectively, compared to the drought affected harvests of the previous year.
According to FAO, in spite of the bumper crop in the subregion the cereal import requirement is estimated up slightly in the 2008/09 marketing year compared to 2007/08. Excluding South Africa, the maize and total cereal import requirements of the subregion are estimated to rise steeply by 43 percent and 13 percent, respectively (see Figures 8 and 9). As a result of the significant drop in per capita domestic cereal availability combined with significant reduction in commercial import capacity due to the high food and fuel prices, demand on food aid, especially for maize, is estimated to increase substantially.
As far as the speed at which the imports are acquired in the subregion is concerned, it seems that import of maize, whose export price from South Africa has remained relatively stable, has arrived (or is contracted) at a faster rate this year compared to the same time last year (see Table 5). By contrast, given that the international prices of wheat and rice have risen much more this year compared to the last, the import acquisition of these cereals has occurred at a slower pace.
Prices of the main cereal maize, in US dollar terms, remain higher at the start of this new marketing year than at the same time last year due to strong international and regional demand in most countries in Southern Africa , except in South Africa, where following a bumper harvest, the price of maize has weakened somewhat. In Malawi, prices continued to rise in recent months, largely attributed to private traders’ speculation on markets; the spike in the price in April 2008 seems to have been an exaggerated reaction of the market due to the uncertain and conflicting early forecast of the 2008 harvest. In Mozambique, prices in all regions have increased due to rising transportation costs, strong demand by local millers and the lack of government food reserves.
In Madagascar, the national average price of rice this year is higher than the corresponding months last year. The post-harvest rice price has started to go up in June, earlier than usual. The price of imported rice, although increased over the same period but without the significant dip during the post harvest period as observed for the local rice.
Harvesting of the main rice crop is completed or drawing to a close in the subregion. Given the incentive of attractive prices and following good precipitation throughout the season across most of the subregion, FAO forecasts the 2008 aggregate output of rice at 403.3 million tonnes, 7.1 million tonnes above the previous year’s record. The major increase is expected from Bangladesh, India, China, Indonesia, Viet Nam, and the Philippines. In China (Mainland), the 2008 paddy output is expected to reach another record at 187.3 million tonnes, compared to the 185.5 record of the previous year. The Government announced in September an increase in the minimum support price to CNY 1 580 per tonne for Indica rice (middle and late) and CNY 1 640 per tonne for Japonica rice, up by CNY 140 per tonne, respectively. In India, the 2008 southwest monsoon was close to the long-term average until the middle of September. The region-wise distribution of rains, too, has been satisfactory for agriculture. The 2008 milled rice output is tentatively forecast at 98 million tonnes, compared to the 96.4 million tonnes of last year.
Harvesting of 2008 winter wheat was completed throughout the subregion. FAO estimates a good season as a whole with the 2008 aggregate output of wheat at 215 million tonnes, 3.5 million tonnes above the previous year. However, the production situation was mixed at the country level. Good crops are estimated in China and India, but very bad harvests are reported in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan.
In China (Mainland), the 2008 aggregate wheat output is estimated at a record 112.5 million tonnes, 2.4 percent above the previous record set last year, reflecting Government support and favourable weather. Similarly a good wheat crop was collected in India, with the 2008 output estimated at a record 78.0 million tonnes, the highest in the last 8 years and 2.2 million tonnes above the previous record set last year, as a result of favourable weather and increased inputs available during the main growing season. This production is expected to be adequate for the domestic demand in 2008/09 after large imports in the past two years. The country imported some 6.7 million tonnes of wheat in 2006/07 (April/March) and then some 2 million tonnes in 2007/08. In contrast to the record production in China and India, the 2008 wheat crop registered a significant reduction in Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pakistan’s wheat output in 2008 is now estimated at 21 million tonnes, 1.5 million tonnes lower than last year, as a result of reduced area due to sowing delays, less availability of irrigation water, substandard seeds, and high fertilizer prices. The 2008 wheat output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is estimated to fall by some 5 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes from last year’s record because of dry conditions.
Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar on 2 and 3 May 2008 with winds up to 200 km per hour, sweeping through the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) delta region and the country’s main city and former capital. The adverse impact of the cyclone on household food security has been significant with many families having lost their food stocks. With scarce employment opportunities and the next harvest to take place only in November, there is an urgent need to provide relief food until households can recover their livelihoods. A joint FAO/WFP team will visit the country in October to assess the 2008/09 crop and food supply situation and needs for food aid and agricultural assistance. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continues to suffer chronic food insecurity, high malnutrition rates and economic problems, and remains reliant on external food assistance to meet the needs of its 23 million people. The WFP/FAO Rapid Food Security Assessment (RFSA) conducted in June 2008 confirmed a significant deterioration in food security in most parts of the country. Harvesting of rice, the most important cereal in the country, is underway. The poor, especially those living in urban areas, have also been affected by the soaring food and fuel prices. Nepal faces a precarious food situation as a result of crop failure due to drought and recent floods in parts of the country. In August, tens of thousands of people in eastern Nepal have been displaced due to a breach in the banks of the Koshi River which flooded the area. Since 19 September, the incessant downpours in western Nepal have triggered floods and landslides that have claimed at least 38 lives and left around 90 missing. In the affected districts of the Far Western and Mid-Western regions 180 000 people have been reportedly displaced. Despite a bumper crop this season expected in Sri Lanka, the country’s food security situation continues to be affected by the resurgence of civil conflict, as well as rising cereal prices. Since the beginning of 2008, more than 7 000 people have been reportedly killed in fighting and the security situation has deteriorated. Rice and wheat flour prices in June 2008 in Colombo city increased by 67 percent and 75 percent, respectively, compared to the same period in 2007.
An earthquake of magnitude 8 on 12 May rocked the south-western province of Sichuan in China, the worst in 30 years. Recent figures indicate that over 69 000 people were killed, more than 374 000 people injured and over 18 457 are still missing. Some 4.5 million families lost their homes in the earthquake. Some 1 million urban households have moved into transitional houses and most of the 3.5 million rural families have reportedly rebuilt their transitional homes through their own efforts with Government subsidy. Typhoon Fengshen in the Philippines on 18 June 2008 compounded the effects of the southwest monsoon, triggering landslides, flooding and storm surges, bringing severe damage to infrastructure and agriculture. Latest figures from the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) indicate the more then 4 million people were directly affected, some 81 000 houses completely destroyed and over 326 000 damaged.
Based on a recent FAO assessment, the overall food supply situation in Timor-Leste is satisfactory. Crop production is expected to be better compared to last year, reflecting relatively good weather conditions and high market prices. Imported rice is available widely throughout the country. The Government is expected to import more rice and continue to provide the subsidy for the transportation cost for the districts. However, the insecurity situation needs to be monitored in Timor-Leste, due to country’s high dependence on cereal imports, social instability, and the high unemployment rate. Wheat and barley are the main crops cultivated during the winter period in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Harvesting of wheat was complete in August and the 2008 wheat output is estimated to have fallen by some 5 million tonnes from last year’s record to 10 million tonnes, the lowest in the last six years, as a result of drought conditions in the coutry as well as crop damage due to winter frost. With this reduced production, wheat imports in 2008/09 (April/March) may rise to 5 million tonnes. This would represent the largest level of imports in six years during which time the country remained largely self-sufficient in wheat. In Bangladesh, large-scale humanitarian relief operations are still ongoing to assist the 1.5 million people most affected by Cyclone Sidr, which hit up to 30 districts on 15 November. The reduction in 2007 paddy production and rising food prices are significantly impacting the food security of the vulnerable population in both urban and rural areas.
Prices of staple foods remain high and volatile in several countries in Asia (figures 12 and 13). In Sri Lanka, rice prices declined with the good 2008 paddy harvest in March but by August were almost twice their level of a year earlier. Similarly, in Nepal, the rice price declined from its peak in March following the harvesting of the main season paddy crop, but subsequently increased from May and by September was 85 percent above the same period last year. In Pakistan prices have risen sharply and were very volatile since February 2008. In Bangladesh, the rice price declined from its peak in May following a record main season paddy crop, but subsequently increased.
In Iraq, generally unfavourable weather for most of the growing season led to drastically reduced 2008 winter grain production and created new uncertainties about the safety of drinking water. The aggregate output of wheat and barley crops is estimated at 1.9 million tonnes, some 40 percent lower than the average level in 2007 and the smallest crop in recent history. Thus, imports of wheat in the year ending in June 2009, are anticipated to increase to about 3.8 million tonnes, against 3.6 million tonnes estimated for the previous year. Many Iraqi refugees in Jordan and Syrian Arab Republic have decided to return to their homes encouraged by the improved security situation and financial incentives offered by the Government to help them resettle, particularly in Baghdad. The incentives are mostly for travel expenses and for financial help and compensation for those whose properties were damaged during their absence. The Iraqi Ministry of Health continues to fight an outbreak of cholera that had spread in late August resulting in casualties in central and southern areas.
In the Syrian Arab Republic, poor and irregular rains during the 2007/08 growing season have threatened the food security of farmers and herders in the affected areas and seriously jeopardized their livelihoods and nutritional status. A recent UN Inter-Agency (FAO, WFP, WHO, UNICEF and IOM) Drought Impact Assessment Mission has reported that, this year, the average yield of wheat, barley, lentil and chickpeas dropped by some 32 percent in the irrigated areas and as much as 89.9 percent in the rain-fed areas. The total wheat production in 2008 was estimated at 2.0 million tonnes, half the poor crop harvested last year and below average for the third consecutive year. As a result of inadequate pastures herders sold their animals for 60-70 percent below the normal prices and in many areas they even exhausted their herds. The Government has responded by distributing feed on loan to be repaid next season, as well as providing free veterinary assistance and vaccines. Moreover, the Government distributed food rations to 27 000 families. Reduced availability of wheat and barley has contributed to further increases in prices of food items in the market. This has adversely affected household incomes and purchasing power of the people particularly in the drought-affected areas. The Mission has estimated at some 1 million the food insecure people in north-eastern Syria where also availability of drinking water has considerably decreased. The situation is not expected to improve until the spring of 2009 when the crops now being sown will be harvested. Considering that the needed assistance is beyond government capacity and resources, the Inter-Agency Mission has launched an appeal for USD 20.23 million to address the emergency humanitarian needs and prevent further negative impacts on about 1 million drought-affected people for a period of six months (October 2008-March 2009).
The Government of Yemen has recently appealed to the international community for funds to provide humanitarian assistance to internally displaced people (IDPs) affected by the four-year conflict in the northern governorate of Saada as well as affected areas in Amran. In addition, the appeal also addresses the rehabilitation of infrastructure and houses damaged in the conflict. Out of an initial requirement for USD 190 million, the Government has contributed USD 55 million. The rest represents the gap that should be filled by the donor community. WFP in Yemen has recently launched a USD 30 million emergency programme to offset the high prices of food staples that are hitting food insecure people. The objective of the operation is to mitigate the impact of high food prices and reduce acute malnutrition. The programme addresses the needs of some 700 000 people, with the focus on children between two and five and pregnant/lactating women. The output from the 2008 sorghum and millet crops, now being harvested, is estimated at 630 000 tonnes and 129 000 tonnes, respectively. Overall favourable weather, adequate availability of agricultural inputs and above-average plantings, led to a 2008 production higher than both last year and the average for the previous five years. Imports of cereals in 2009 – mostly wheat - are forecast to increase slightly to 3.1 million tonnes.
In Afghanistan, the 2008 cereal harvest is officially estimated at 3.8 million tonnes, well below average and one-third less than in 2007 mostly reflecting unfavourable weather at both planting time and during the growing season. Wheat output is estimated at only 2.6 million tonnes (2007:4.3 million tonnes).
As a result, the cereal import requirement in 2008/09 is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes more than double the almost 1 million tonnes imported in 2007/08. Wheat imports account for 2.2 million tonnes. The commercial import capacity is estimated at 1.5 million tonnes leaving 0.7 million tonnes to be mobilized with assistance. In recognition of the severity of the grain production shortfall, the Government and the United Nations have appealed to the world community to donate USD 400 million to cover the sizeable wheat import and food aid needs of approximately 4.5 million affected Afghans, as well as to prepare for the next winter cropping season beginning this month.
A bitterly cold winter, below-normal precipitation and shortages of irrigation water have adversely affected crop yields in southern parts of central Asia. The 2008 harvests are well below average in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, this is the second poor harvest in succession. In Kazakhstan the 2008 cereal harvest is provisionally forecast at 17 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes less than last year’s near record but still above average. The ban on wheat exports, introduced on 15 April, 2008 has been lifted with effect on 1 September. This should assist the neighbouring drought affected countries to mobilize their wheat import needs. However, purchasing power, rather than supply of grains, is the limiting factor in the food security situation in this region. Uzbekistan was also affected by the drought but to a lesser extent. The harvest is officially reported to be over 6 million tonnes, about average but less than last year. By contrast growing conditions in the Caucasus have been satisfactory this year and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have good harvests for the second year in succession.
The aggregate output of cereals in the region is 29.9 million tonnes, about average but 4 million tonnes less than production in 2007. Output of wheat is provisionally estimated at 24.4 million tonnes, 3.1 million tonnes less than last year. Production of coarse grains, at 4.8 million tonnes, is also less (5.7 million tonnes in 2007). Output of rice is estimated to be close to last year’s level.
The 2008 aggregate cereal output of the subregion is forecast by FAO at 41.5 million tonnes, about 800 000 tonnes more than the previous year’s record level and above the average of the last five years. In Mexico, harvesting of the 2008 main rain-fed summer coarse grain crops, accounting for some 75 percent of the annual production, is expected to start from late October in the states of Guanajuato, Mexico, Jalisco and Puebla. Seasonal production is expected to be very similar to the record level obtained in 2007 as a consequence of widespread use of better seed varieties and higher sowing density that improved average yields. In addition, the country is receiving normal to above-normal monsoon rains that maintained favourable soil moisture levels across the main producing areas. The same positive situation is reported in the case of sorghum crop with a record output at 6.2 million tonnes. Land is being prepared for planting the important winter wheat crop for harvest in 2009 in the almost fully irrigated areas of north-western states.
In Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, harvesting of the 2008 first season maize crop is well underway and planting of the second season crops, especially beans, has already begun. In these countries, 2008 aggregate maize output is provisionally estimated at about 3.5 million tonnes, some 10 percent above the good level of 2007, as a result of the various governmental programmes to support local production against the rise of international food prices.
In the Caribbean, the islands of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba were hit by four tropical storms (named Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) in less than four weeks, between mid-August and mid-September, which caused severe damages to urban and rural infrastructures and losses of human lives. In Haiti, where about 850 000 people have been affected and more than 400 people died, early assessments of food situation report damages to summer season crops still to be harvested, such as maize and beans, and to banana plantations, especially in south and south-east regions and in the Artibonite valley. Practically the same crops have been affected in central and southern provinces of the Dominican Republic. In Jamaica, the Ministry of Agriculture has reported severe damage to banana plantations, especially in the eastern parishes of St. Mary, St. Thomas and Portland where losses are estimated at about 70-85 percent of the existing crop. In Cuba, major agricultural losses are reported in the Isla de la Juventud and the western province of Pinar del Rio, but also in the eastern provinces of Holguín and Las Tunas. Staple crops as plantains, cassava, rice, maize and sugar cane crops have been seriously affected and the damage caused by hurricane Ike alone is officially estimated at about 490 000 tonnes of staple food. In addition, about half a million chickens have been lost. In all Caribbean countries, there is high concern for the next two months until the end of the hurricane season because food vulnerability has increased dramatically, soils are widely saturated and even only limited amounts of rainfall can have very negative consequences on local livelihoods and food supply.
In most countries of the subregion, the price of rice continues its upward trend, which started at the beginning of 2007 (figure 14). As of August 2008, the price of rice was between 25 and 90 percent up compared to earlier months, while prices of wheat and maize have showed a slight decrease since July. The situation is expected to adversely affect food access of the poorest households who are highly dependent on purchased food.
Harvesting of the 2008 winter wheat crop has recently started in centre-south states of Brazil and in Paraguay and will continue until November. By the end of October, harvesting is expected to start in the important growing areas of Argentina and Uruguay. Aggregate wheat production for the subregion is tentatively forecast at 21 million tonnes, about 1.5 million tonnes below the average of the last five years. The aggregate planted area is reported at a low level of 8.2 million hectares, largely as a consequence of the prolonged drought that affected Argentina since May. The most affected departments are Córdoba, southern Santa Fe, Santiago del Estero, Chaco and La Pampa, where cumulative precipitation from May to September was the lowest in the last forty years. As a result of the very limited soil moisture, planting operations have been delayed and planted area is estimated at 4.6 million hectares, the lowest area since 1996. In addition, dryness and frequent freezing temperatures are preventing a uniform germination and proper establishment of crops in the most affected areas, with negative consequences on yields that, in some cases, may drop up to 40 percent compared to previous year. However in south-eastern Buenos Aires department, the largest wheat producing region, yield prospects are still favourable due to near to above normal precipitations in August. On the contrary, in Brazil, good weather conditions in main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul and a widespread increase in planted area (up to 30 percent in Parana) as a response to high international prices are positively influencing current production that is expected to reach 5.4 million tonnes, the largest wheat crop since 2004.
Harvesting of the 2008 second season maize crop has been completed in August and the 2008 aggregate production (first and second season) is estimated at a record 89.4 million tonnes, some 6 percent above the previous record set last year. As in 2007, this good output is due to an increase in the area planted in response to high international prices, coupled with excellent weather conditions during the growing season that boosted yields to record levels. In particular, the 2008 aggregate maize output in Brazil, the main producer in the subregion, is officially estimated at 58.6 million tonnes, about 13 percent above the record level obtained in 2007 and 33 percent above last five years average.
Planting of the important 2009 summer maize crop has started in southern countries of the subregion and will be concluded by mid-October. In Argentina, official planting intentions point to an area of about 2.7 million hectares, some 15 percent less than last year as a consequence of relatively high prices of inputs, low internal prices and export limits imposed by the government that may induce a shift toward more profitable crops such as soybean and sunflower. Moreover, if current dry weather conditions persist in key growing areas, the total planted area may be further reduced. Better precipitations are also needed in central Brazil and Uruguay, where soil moisture is not yet ideal for planting 2009 summer season secondary cereal crops.
The United States’ 2008 wheat output is officially estimated to have increased by about 21 percent from last year to 68 million tonnes. A sharp expansion of planted area and favourable weather contributed to raise output well above the average of the past five years. As of early October, planting of the winter wheat crop for harvest in 2009 was reported to be almost complete in some of the southern states and about 60 percent complete over the country as a whole, which is about average for this stage of the season. Planting conditions throughout are reported to be generally favourable. However, with a significant improvement in the global wheat supply situation estimated in 2008/09, wheat prices have been on the decline since June. Additionally, input costs are expected to remain high or increase for the next production season, thus, wheat production is expected to be a less attractive prospect for producers in 2009 than it has been this year and the area planted is expected to decline from the high level in 2007/08. With regard to coarse grains, as of early October, the progress of the maize harvest was well behind average because of this season’s slow pace of maturation. However, the crop remains in good to excellent conditions, and is mostly beyond the point where early frosts could have any significant impact on yields. This year’s maize output is now officially forecast at 306.7 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the record high last year.
In Canada, a cool rainy summer slowed crop development but was favourable for boosting yields. As a result, harvest results are reported to be better than expected earlier in the season. Official estimates in early October put the total wheat output at 27.3 million tonnes, about 36 percent up from last year’s reduced crop. Prospects for this year’s coarse grain crops (mainly barley, maize and oats)have similarly improved over the past weeks, but output is, nevertheless, forecast to be below last year’s level at 26.1 million tonnes after a reduction in maize area.
The forecast for the European Union’s aggregate cereal output in 2008 has been raised significantly since the previous report in July, to 309 million tonnes, almost 19 percent up from the aggregate output of the 27 countries in the previous year. Planted area increased significantly from the previous year, especially in the EU15 countries where the 10 percent compulsory set-aside was removed, while average yields also improved greatly, particularly in the eastern countries, reflecting generally favourable weather conditions. Of the total output, wheat is now estimated to account for about 148 million tonnes, 23 percent up from 2007. However, excessive wetness in parts this year has had an adverse affect on wheat quality, reducing the average protein content, which will result in a higher proportion than normal being destined for feed use. The aggregate output of coarse grains is now seen at almost 158 million tonnes, nearly 15 percent up from last year’s reduced level.
In the Balkan region among the non-EU countries, the 2008 cereal harvest outcome was also satisfactory and output recovered well from the drought' reduced level of 2007. In Serbia, good yields have partially offset a reduction in the area sown to wheat and output is estimated at over 2.1 million tonnes. This would be more than enough to cover domestic needs and could leave a small surplus available for export. Output of maize is forecast to rise from 4 to 6.5 million tonnes which, if materialized could leave an exportable surplus of about 1.5 million tonnes.
Growing conditions for both wheat and spring coarse grains have been good and output far exceeds the drought reduced crops of 2007. In Serbia, cereal output could exceed 9 million tonnes, 19 percent above average, despite a reduction in the area sown to wheat. Output includes 2 million tonnes of wheat and the balance is coarse grains. In Croatia the harvest of cereals is expected to recover to an about average 2.8 million tonnes, including 0.6 million tonnes of wheat; maize production is expected to reach 2 million tonnes. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, cereal output is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, 6 percent above average despite a reduction in the area sown.
The winter cereal planting for crops to be harvested in 2009 is already well underway in the main northern/western producing countries. Planting got off to a slow start in some northern/western countries because of rainy weather in early September, but conditions improved towards the end of the month allowing fieldwork to progress rapidly. In the southeast, some good rainfall in mid-September, although hampering the still ongoing 2007 harvests was beneficial in improving soil moisture levels for the upcoming winter grain planting after a dry harvesting period. At this early stage, the outcome of the winter grain planting season remains uncertain. However, the current scenario of weakening cereal prices, together with increasing input costs, firmly points to a decline in the winter grain area in the 27 member countries for next year's harvest.
In the European CIS, growing conditions have been very favourable and all countries have achieved good to record harvests. In Belarus, the 2008 grain harvest is officially estimated about 8.3 million tonnes. Cereal output in Moldova recovered to a bumper 2.9 million tonnes compared to about 800 000 tonnes in the drought affected 2007. Both the Russian Federation and Ukraine have harvested record crops. In the Russian Federation FAO’s provisional estimate is nearly 95 million tonnes, but some analysts are forecasting 100 million or more tonnes. FAO’s estimate includes 57 million tonnes of wheat and 37 million tonnes of coarse grains. Output in the Ukraine is forecast to reach 47 million tonnes compared to last year’s drought reduced 27.6 million tonnes. As a result of these good harvests, cereal production in the region increased by over 30 percent and cereal prices have fallen significantly. Both the Russian Federation and Ukraine have substantial exportable surpluses of wheat and coarse grains. In fact, exports are likely to be limited by infrastructure constraints and stocks in the subregion are expected to rise.
Winter crop planting is underway in Ukraine; some 8.8 million hectares are expected to be sown.
The prospects for the 2008 winter cereal crops in Australia have deteriorated over the past two months, largely reflecting the impact of dry weather in southwestern parts of New South Wales. However, the prospects for the coming harvest remain much better than last year when the country suffered widespread drought. The latest official estimate of September put wheat output in 2008 at about 22.5 million tonnes, already down from earlier forecast, but more recent indications in early October point to further losses that may bring the final output down to between 21 to 22 million tonnes. Nevertheless, this level of output will still be well up from the reduced crop of 13 million tonnes in 2007. The early outlook for the minor summer grain crop for harvest in 2009 (mainly sorghum and maize) to be planted in the coming weeks points to a decline in area. There is likely to be less fallow land available for summer cropping in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales as a result of the increased area currently sown to winter crops. Assuming a return to average yields from the records achieved in the 2007/08 season, sorghum production in 2008/09 is forecast to decline to slightly less than 2 million tonnes.
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