1) Why is reaching agreement in Copenhagen important?
Mankind has already added enough greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to raise temperatures to a
dangerous level, and this is already leading to increased incidences of drought, heatwaves and heavy
storms. The purpose of an ambitious and effective international climate change deal is to avoid
catastrophic climate change and to help the most vulnerable countries adapt. The world has only a
very narrow window of opportunity to undertake a first dramatic shift towards a low-carbon society
and to prevent the worst scenarios of scientists from coming true. The UN Climate Change Conference
in Copenhagen this year will be the moment in history in which humanity has the opportunity to rise
to the challenge.
2) Why is it so important that a deal be clinched this year?
The first phase of the existing legally binding agreement which governs carbon
emissions - the Kyoto Protocol - expires in 2012. In order to take mankind into a sustainable and
equitable future, an ambitious new deal needs to be agreed this year so that national governments
have time to prepare for implementation beyond 2012, to follow on the first phase.
3) What has to happen at COP15 so that it can be termed a success?
The Copenhagen agreed outcome need not resolve all details, but it must provide
clarity on four key issues: The first is clarity on the mid-term emission reduction targets that
industrialised countries will commit to. Second, there must be clarity on the actions that developing
countries could undertake to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. Third, it must define stable and
predictable financing to help the developing world reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the
inevitable effects of climate. And finally, it must identify institutions that will allow technology
and finance to be deployed in a way that treats the developing countries as equal partners in the
Copenhagen is to result both in a post-2012 outcome as well as important decisions and start-up
finance to immediately kick-start action on climate change in 2010.
4) Why is it appropriate to speak of the need to ‘seal the deal’at
Once the main political issues are dealt with, and, if need be, the deadline by which
the legal agreement must be decided, the question about the legal form of a Copenhagen agreed outcome
can be addressed. There are several proposals on the table. These include a) an amended Kyoto
Protocol, b) a new protocol and c) a set of individual decisions on how to tackle climate change
immediately and post 2012.. The outcome can also be a combination of these options. Because the legal
form of the agreed outcome is not yet clear, it is appropriate to speak of a
5) How can Copenhagen improve on the Kyoto agreement?
The Kyoto Protocol was designed as a first small step in the fight against climate
change. Copenhagen must be the ambitious and effective political response to what scientists are now
saying is required. The Kyoto Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations than on
developing countries as it recognizes that developed countries are principally responsible for the
current high levels of greenhouse gas emissions - and this principal will also apply to the
Copenhagen outcome. The main difference is that the mid-term emission reduction targets that
developed countries agree to must be in line with what the scientific community has set out as a
beacon, so in the range of minus 25 and minus 40 percent over 1990 levels by 2020. And developing
countries must engage in such a way that world-wide emissions decline by at least 50% by 2050.
6) Are developing countries expected to agree to emissions caps in Copenhagen?
No, industrialised counties are not asking major developing countries to accept
binding mid-term emission reduction targets, or “caps”. The international community, in
drawing up the broad parameters for a climate change deal in Bali two years ago, acknowledged that
industrialised countries must accept binding emission reduction targets. Developing countries are
asked to detail their actions to limit the growth of their emissions in line with their sustainable
development needs. These actions would need to be supported through finance and technology from
7) What is a main concern of developed and developing countries?
Whilst developing countries are clearly willing to make a contribution to mitigation
efforts, one of their main concerns is that they will be forced into a deal which will harm their
ability to grow economically and their aims to combat poverty. On the other hand, the Copenhagen
agreed outcome must also address the concerns of industrialized countries which fear that they may
have to subsidize competition in the developing world by being obliged to reduce their own emissions
whilst developing countries are not legally bound to do so. So a key challenge of Copenhagen will be
to ensure that the deal is equitable for the all.
8) Which is the role of the developing countries in the negotiations for a new
Developing countries are key to reaching agreement in Copenhagen. According to the IEA, global energy
demand will grow 55% by 2030. In the period up to 2030, the energy supply infrastructure worldwide
will require a total investment of USD 26 trillion, with about half of that in developing countries.
Even if the group of industrialised countries stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the emissions
rise in developing countries would make it impossible to stay under a two degrees temperature rise
under a business as usual scenario. At the same time, developing countries are the most vulnerable to
the impacts of the climate change and will need significant funding in order to adapt.
9) What are the forecasted costs/funds needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change? Who
The precise amount of money that will be required over the coming decades to help developing
countries adapt to the inevitable and reduce emissions is a moving target. A ballpark figure could be
on the order of USD 250 billion in 2020. But starting to raise immediate finance is more important
than determining its exact future size. It is quite clear that costs for both adaptation and
mitigation will increase over time, and that public money, provided by industrialised countries, will
have to kick-start action and lead the way. The essential issue is that mechanisms are put in place
which allow public and private sector finance to be significantly scaled up over time so that funding
for climate action in the developing world does not have to be renegotiated every year.
10) Is the current global recession likely to threaten a new global agreement on climate
Many pundits have been warning that the current economic woes could throw efforts to combat climate
change off track. But even the financial and economic crisis is being used by countries such as China
and the US as an opportunity to change direction and to shift towards the greening of their
economies. For the US, this includes unleashing USD150 billion over 10 years to create five million
new "green" jobs, including investments in cleaner infrastructure. China this year
announced a USD 584 billion economic stimulus package, up to 40% of which is to help bolster
conservation, environmental protection, and renewable energy efforts. All this has injected energy
into the negotiating process.