News Releases and Op-Eds
Finlayson & Mullen Op-Ed: True or False: Canada is Falling Behind on Greenhouse Gas Emissions? (Vancouver Sun)
The latest international climate change meeting is underway in Bonn, Germany. There is the usual concern about insufficient progress in tackling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and finger pointing at countries seen as not doing their part. Some of this criticism is warranted. In certain quarters, Canada is once again chastised for being a laggard: not doing enough, fast enough, while the United States, which has withdrawn from the Paris Accord, is taking credit for big reductions in emissions.
The starting point for most global comparisons is 1990, with electricity generation being an important sector that accounts for a big slice of emissions in most countries.
Contrary to what some may believe, it is not true that US emissions from electricity generation have fallen since 1990. It is true if the starting point is 2005. In any case, Canada has outperformed the US in bringing down electricity-related GHG emissions, with a cumulative drop of 17 per cent since 1990. Over the same period, US electricity sector emissions rose by 17 per cent. Canada also fares well if the starting point is 2005, notching a 33 per cent decline in electricity-related emissions to 2015, compared to 29 per cent for the United States.
As for other sectors that contribute to GHGs — transportation, agriculture, commercial, residential and agriculture — the distribution of emissions in Canada and the US is similar. Both countries’ total emissions have climbed since 1990, but declined since 2005. The overall drop in emissions was larger for the US in the most recent decade. This mainly reflects one key factor: the shift from coal to natural gas in the electricity sector. Most of the recent fall in American energy GHG emissions came from replacing coal with more efficient natural gas generation – and, to a lesser extent, renewables.
It’s worth noting that the US electricity system is still dominated by hydrocarbons — 65 per cent of all power production is based on natural gas, coal and oil. As such, the US has ample latitude to further reduce GHG emissions in the electricity sector. Indeed, with almost half of the existing fleet of US hydrocarbon generating units at least 25 years old, a substantial portion of the US fleet is ready for normal capital stock roll-over. Most of these aging units will be replaced with natural gas-fired power plants, with renewables making up the rest. The net result will be further improvements in emissions per unit of energy produced, accompanied by lower operating costs.
In meantime, it would help if we stopped tying ourselves in regulatory and policy knots over the potential development of one or two LNG plants in British Columbia and a couple of pipelines across the country. The Americans have been eating Canada’s lunch, as they accelerate efforts to expand domestic oil and gas production, convert existing LNG import facilities into export plants to help feed a world hungry for natural gas, and export coal no longer needed in their own electricity industry. Canada’s natural gas, produced under some of the best environmental regulations in the world and using clean energy inputs, remains constrained, despite its attractive GHG attributes.
Exacerbating all of this is an international GHG accounting system that is palpably biased against energy exporting nations because it fails to differentiate between production- and consumption-driven emissions. This disadvantages Canada – a large net energy exporter – and absolves others around the world from the implications of their consumer choices.
Instead of delivering chest-thumping speeches, Canadian policy-makers need to do their analytical homework. The data, when assessed properly, does not tell the story of Canada as a climate laggard, despite what some appear to believe. In electricity, Canada is a global leader in decarbonizing power generation. Measuring in absolutes does not account for starting base years or the age of existing capital stock. Nor does it do justice to the details of our country’s size, climate, industrial structure, export mix, and population density — all critical elements in understanding how we compare to other jurisdictions
Jock Finlayson is executive vice-president and chief policy officer and Denise Mullen is director of environment at the Business Council of British Columbia.
As published by the Vancouver Sun.