26% probability, assuming no change from present levels in non- climatic drivers . That judgement refers to impacts that exceed the threshold for severity considered here, suggesting that global warming of 4℃ would produce severe risks to peace under present societal conditions . Future risks to peace will remain strongly influenced by socioeconomic development . A study of Sub-Saharan Africa that accounts for both temperature and socioeconomic changes, 2015-2065, concludes that determinants other than rising temperatures, notably quality of governance, will remain most influential in shaping overall levels of violence even in the high-warming RCP8.5 scenario .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report