As a crucially-needed adaptation to climate change, the United Nations plans to expand Early Warning Systems (EWS) for extreme weather to cover everyone on Earth. Given the growing interest in this climate change adaptation solution, we assess how well weather early warnings perform for extreme events in different parts of the world. First, we carry out a forecast verification for weather forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for 95th percentile extreme heat and extreme precipitation globally at 0.5 degrees resolution, with three days of lead time. We present the results alongside similar verification results from ECMWF forecasts and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast, to identify regions of the world with consistent forecast skill. We then overlay the skill of these short-term weather forecasts on top of climate change projections for the increasing frequency of the extreme events themselves. Based on these results, we offer policy implications for EWS investments in different regions. We find that in much of the tropics, weather forecasts have relatively poor skill in forecasting extreme temperature and precipitation events, calling for further investments in predictability. In the extra-tropics, most extreme heat and extreme precipitation events can be correctly forecasted, with better results for multi-day events and shorter lead-times. While there is room to improve predictability, end-to-end investments in EWS in these regions can focus on the use of existing skillful forecasts. Finally, most of the world's land area is projected to see an increase in the magnitude of extreme heat and precipitation events with climate change, and EWS investments in these regions should prepare for unprecedented extremes and changing vulnerabilities. These results provide a foundation for localized research on EWS in different parts of the world as well as evidence for policy and donors on how best to invest in EWS in different regions.
de Perez, EC; Harrison, L; Berse, K; Easton-Calabria, E; Marunye, J; Marake, M; Murshed, SB; Shampa; Zauisomue, EH
Adapting to climate change through anticipatory action: The potential use of weather-based early warnings
Weather And Climate Extremes