Causes of migration and violent conflict need to be seen in a wider historical, agrarian, political, economic and environmental context, in a multi-scalar perspective integrating levels of analysis from the local to the global . Quantitative studies tend to conclude that climate change has so far not significantly impacted migration including in drylands , although with some disagreement . In a study of the climate change-migration-conflict interface, Abel et al.  found limited empirical evidence supporting a link between climatic shocks, conflict and asylum-seeking for the period 2006-2015 from 157 countries. The authors found evidence of such a link for the period 2010-2012 relating to some countries affected by the Arab Spring and concluded that the impact of climate on conflict and migration is limited to specific time periods and contexts.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report