The dynamics of a global world, and humans performing as a new geological force, require that an effort is undertaken to make robust decisions in order to devise strategies for the management and adaptation to climate change. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Aipe river basin in Huila, Colombia. The abcd Thomas model (four parameters) was calibrated and validated for the stream flows of the Aipe catchment (1992-2012). The sensitivity and identifiability of the parameters were evaluated using the Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT). The results show the ability of the model to simulate the monthly stream flow (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0,89). The most influential parameters are: a (water storage in the soil) and c (contribution to the aquifer). From the simulated scenarios, the baseline (1992-2012) was estimated to be an average flow of 15,44 m(3)s(-1); the trend extrapolation scenario estimated a rate 13,79 m(3)s(-1) (-10,64%); while for the multi-model assembly scenario it was 9,34m(3)s(-1) (-39,47%) and for the A2 scenario it was 5,74m(3)s(-1) (-62,60%). Lastly, we propose a set of strategies for adaptation to climate change that are committed to the integral management of water resources.
Romero-Cuéllar, J; Buitrago-Vargas, A; Quintero-Ruiz, T; Francés, F
Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Aipe river basin in Huila, Colombia
Ribagua-Revista Iberoamericana Del Agua