This research is based on the theoretical framework of risk in rural agricultural economy where farmers consider climate change as idiosyncratic risk of production. Under the inter-temporal household consumption smoothing model, this paper considers crop diversification as an ex ante measure to tackle permanent income shock from climate change. This paper examines empirically whether crop diversity is affected by climate change and how this diversity will respond to different climate scenarios. Negative binomial regression models are estimated from a nationally representative sample of 11,389 farmers across Bangladesh and 30-year average of seasonal climatic variables to find the effects of climatic variables on crop diversity. This paper finds that crop diversity is climate-sensitive and this diversity in different locations varies with climatic conditions. This research unveils structural instability between different single crosssectional models to simulate the effects of climatic variables on crop diversity. It also finds that increases in mean annual temperature by 1 degrees C by 2030 and 2.4 degrees C by 2100 have resulted in 26.40% and 149.83% increases in crop diversity compared to its baseline of 2010, respectively. The effects of rainfall scenarios on crop diversity are much lower compared to the effects of temperature.
Moniruzzaman, S
CROP DIVERSIFICATION AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: HOW DO BANGLADESHI FARMERS PERFORM?
Climate Change Economics