This study aims to specify the effect of the minimum temperature on the wheat crop by studying the economic variables that affect the productivity, and forecasting using general trend models. Showed the instability of cultivated area of wheat crop during the study period and the annual growth rate was about 0.6%, as a result of high temperatures, which causes deterioration in soil fertility and thus affect the productivity of wheat crop has a significant annual decrease rate about 3%, Which shows the negative effect of high temperature on the decline in productivity, which made Egypt a wheat importer, so there are a correlation relation between the temperature and productivity by about 0.900, when the required cold hours are reduced, the wheat yield is reduced too during the study period. Estimation of prediction models showed that there was an expected increase in cultivated area and can be maintained in it through the use of fertilizer but yield of it will decline to about 7.7 ardeb due to the continued high temperatures as a result of climate change. The results of the prediction show that expected minimum temperatures tend to gradually increase due to global warming and try to adapt to climate change by cultivating heat-tolerant varieties in the coming years.
El Khaliefa, Z; Zahran, HF; ElSheikh, MH
Economic analysis of the effect of climate change on yield of wheat crop in Egypt: case study temperature change
Bioscience Research