et al., 2014). Scenarios are limited by stakeholders' imaginations and, as such, new emergent challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, are difficult to anticipate in scenario planning. Nevertheless, recent studies and forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 on poverty conclude that in the near- and medium-term future major portions of the newly poor will emerge in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia . Since these countries are already characterised by high levels of absolute poverty and vulnerability to climate change, it is likely that these regions will face more severe challenges in overcoming vulnerability and will be confronted with a growing adaptation gap. Thus, the implication for scenario planning is that single crises or events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, might not significantly alter existing vulnerabilities, but rather reinforce them.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report