Models of vegetation response to climate project acceleration in the coming decades of observed increases in shrub dominance and boreal forest encroachment that have been driven by recent warming , leading to a shrinking of the area of tundra globally  . Simulating changes in tundra vegetation is complicated by permafrost dynamics , changes in precipitation and low nutrient availability  . Changes in vegetation, when combined with warming and increased precipitation effects on soil thawing and carbon cycling, are projected to modify GHG emissions and have biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. High uncertainty in modelled carbon cycle changes arises from differences between the vegetation models . In addition, climate change is expected to strongly interact with other factors, such as fire, to further increase uncertainty in projections of tundra ecosystem function .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report