Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, the extent of urban land exposed to high-frequency flooding is projected to increase around 270% in north Africa, 800% in southern Africa, and 2600% in mid-latitude Africa by 2030 when compared to 2000, without considering climate change . In addition, global warming is projected to increase frequency and magnitude of river floods in east, central and west Africa . On average, across large African river basins, the frequency of flood events with a current return period of 100 years is projected to increase to 1 in 40 years at 1.5℃ and 2°℃ global warming, and 1 in 21 years at 4℃ warming, with Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo in the top 20 countries globally for projected damages . Compared to population in 2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase 600% by 2066-2096 with moderate-to-high population growth and 2.6℃ global warming, with risk reducing to a 200% increase for low population growth and 1.6℃ global warming .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report