While most climate change vulnerability assessments focus on regional or city-levels, this paper studies villages and their different forms of vulnerability vis-a-vis climate change. In the African context, the village level proves to be central for land-use related decision-making given the traditional role of village communities. The paper analyses two different regions, namely the Mkomazi Water Basin in Tanzania and the Keiskamma River Catchment in South Africa. Due to the differing roles of agriculture, income sources and village structures, we developed and applied specific vulnerability indicators in the different regions. In both regions, we harness the Socio-Ecological Systems Framework to study explanatory factors for the variation in vulnerability between villages. In doing so, vulnerability has been found to be determined by an aggregate of ecological factors including water availability and soil depletion and social determinants including conflicts, strength of institutions and leadership as well as knowledge. Climate-change related factors play a role with regard to rainfall frequency and quantities, but need to be analysed together with other drivers of change, including population dynamics and migration. Our comparative conclusions focus on the need for explicit and clear institutional structures, legitimized leadership and good knowledge about land use options and their consequences.
Grothmann, T; Petzold, M; Ndaki, P; Kakembo, V; Siebenhuener, B; Kleyer, M; Yanda, P; Ndou, N
Vulnerability Assessment in African Villages under Conditions of Land Use and Climate Change: Case Studies from Mkomazi and Keiskamma
Sustainability