Projected changes in aridity are expected to impose freshwater stress on many small islands, especially SIDS . It is estimated that with a warming of 1.5℃ or less, freshwater stress on small islands would be 25% less as compared to 2.0℃. While some island regions are projected to experience substantial freshwater decline, an opposite trend is observed for some western Pacific and northern Indian Ocean islands. Drought risk projections for Caribbean SIDS aligned with observations from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway  2 scenario indicate that a 1ºC increase in temperature  could result in a 60% increase in the number of people projected to experience severe water resources stress from 2043 to 2071. In some Pacific atolls, freshwater resources could be significantly affected by a 0.40-m SLR. Similar impacts are anticipated for some Caribbean countries with the worst-case scenario  indicating a 0.5-m SLR by the mid-century  and a 1-m SLR by the end-of-century . SIDS with high projected population growth rates are expected to experience the most severe freshwater stress by 2030 under a 2ºC warming threshold scenario 
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report