Separating between climatic and non-climatic factors in impact attribution is often challenging, as highlighted by the debate surrounding the causes of the Syrian civil war. During the years 2006-2010, the Fertile Crescent region in Eastern Mediterranean and Western Asia was hit by the worst drought on meteorological record, compounding a consistent drying of the region over the past half century ). The magnitude of the multi-year drought is estimated to have become two to three times more likely as a result of increased CO2 forcing . The drought had a devastating impact on agricultural production in the northeast of Syria. In 2007-2008 alone, average crop yields dropped by 32% in irrigated areas and as much as 79% in rain-fed areas , and herders in the northeast lost around 85% of their livestock . Successive years with little or no income eventually forced people to leave their farms in great numbers and seek employment in less affected parts of the country, adding to existing pressures on housing, labour market and public goods provision . In March 2011, by which time the 'Arab Spring' uprisings had gained momentum and spread across much of the region, anti-regime protests broke out in Syria, first in the southern city of Dara'a and then in Damascus and throughout the country.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report