Vegetation is a key factor adapting to and mitigating climate change. The quantitative analysis of vegetation dynamics including climate and human activities is necessary to take appropriate actions to adapt to climate change and optimize vegetation distribution to mitigate it. This article integrates the relationship between climate, soil, socioeconomic factors and vegetation change using redundancy analysis (RDA) and partial redundancy analysis (pRDA): which also considers the time-lag effect of climate change. The correlation between vegetation and dynamics of the three periods at land-use and vegetation group levels in the 14 counties in Heihe River basin (HRB) of China was revealed. Results showed that the most important driving factor was groundwater depth and mean annual temperature with 15-year lag times. More variation of vegetation change was determined at land-use level (54.7%) than that at vegetation group level (42.0%): Climate change factors explained more variations than human activities both at vegetation group and land-use level, so did the time-lag effect. Land use planning not is only necessary in urban area but also in rural area in HRB. To increase resilience of agriculture, we suggest appropriate grazing management strategy. Meanwhile time-lag effects are quite important for better evaluating vegetation dynamics under climate change.
Gao, NN; Li, F; Zeng, H; Zheng, R
THE IMPACT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES, NATURAL FACTORS AND CLIMATE TIME-LAG EFFECTS OVER 33 YEARS IN THE HEIHE RIVER BASIN, CHINA
Applied Ecology And Environmental Research