In Central Asia, water scarcity has been ranked in the top five global risks . Cross-boundary adaptation remains critically important in this region with abundant glaciers in the Pamir Plateau of Tajikistan  and areas with severe glacier retreat in the Tianshan Mountains . The spatial variations of glacier and other climate variables have added to uncertainty related to the dynamic of the water cycle. The headwater regions, such as Pamir area, would be significantly affected by the climate parameters, such as the stronger rainfall intensity, more frequent rainfall and higher temperature . The water resources in the Pamir Plateau will range from -0.48 to 5.6% , and the crop phenological period in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be about 1-2 weeks earlier. The threat of agricultural water stress is increasing as well. The oasis in downstream areas will face more complex water resource fluctuations, water crisis and desertification. In particular, rain-fed agriculture in northern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and western Turkmenistan is particularly dependent on water resources. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, considering CO2 fertilisation effects and land-use projections, the increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration and accumulated temperature can contribute to a 23% increase in cotton yield in Central Asia , but extreme climate, such as drought, heatwaves and rainstorms, will have a 10% negative impact on agricultural production and the ecological environment . High-efficiency water-saving technology will help the upstream and downstream water resource management in Central Asian countries to adapt to the variation in water resources quantity, frequency and spatial pattern.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report