As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to misleading policy advice. In some cases, trying to minimize climate impacts could lead to inferior outcomes. It is preferable to explore how policies influence the absolute level of metrics of interest in scenarios with climate change rather than to focus on how they influence incremental climate impacts. Evaluation of climate adaptation policies typically compares differences between scenarios with different levels of, or without, climate change. Many policies, however, address development simultaneously, and focusing only on climate change impacts may not identify the best outcome.
Jafino, BA; Hallegatte, S; Rozenberg, J
Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice
Nature Climate Change