Future violent conflict risk is highly mediated by socioeconomic development trajectories . Development trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk . Hegre et al.  forecast future conflict under the SSPs and found that SSP1, which prioritises sustainable development, is associated with lower risks of conflict. Using data from sub-Saharan Africa, Witmer et al.  forecast conflict along the SSPs and find that any increases in conflict that may be associated with climate change could be offset by increases in political rights. Strong predictors of future conflict are a recent history of conflict, large populations and low levels of socioeconomic development .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report