Temperature increases are projected to exceed critical risk thresholds for six key climate-sensitive health outcomes, highlighting the criticality of building adaptive capacity in health systems and in other sectors that influence health and well-being . Recently reported research illustrates the temperature thresholds under three adaptation scenarios describing the effectiveness of health systems to manage additional risks from climate change for heat-related morbidity and mortality; ozone-related mortality; malaria incidence rates; incidence rates of Dengue and other diseases spread by Aedes sp. mosquitos; Lyme disease; and West Nile fever . As shown in Figure 7.9, these adaptation scenarios significantly alter the warming thresholds at which risks accelerate, with the proactive adaptation scenario, a scenario that emphasises international cooperation towards achieving sustainable development, having the greatest potential to avoid significant increases in risks under all but the highest levels of warming. The incomplete adaptation scenario describes a world with moderate challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The limited adaptation scenario describes a world with high challenges to adaptation and mitigation. In the figure, transitions are based on the peer-reviewed literature projecting risks for each of the health outcomes. Projections for time intervals were changed to temperature increase above pre-industrial levels based on the climate models and scenarios used in the projections. The assessed projections were based on a range of scenarios, including SRES, CMIP5, and ISIMIP, and, in some cases, demographic trends. The black dots are levels of
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report