The aim of the present study is to use data from relevant government agencies to understand the change in rice production and land use since 2000 in North Sumatra, Indonesia, and to examine the combination of climatic and socio-economic factors affecting the change. Interviews and focused group meetings were also held to overcome the limitation of data availability. This study finds that the consistent increase in rice productivity has been offset by the reduction in rice harvest area, resulting in almost no growth in rice production over the last decade in North Sumatra. In contrast, oil palm plantations, particularly smallholder estates, have been expanding in the province. Four factors are identified as those affecting the change in land use: (1) climate conditions, (2) economic environment, (3) rice planting index, and (4) distance from palm oil enterprise estates. At the time of substantial reduction in rice harvest area, unusual climate conditions were observed across different regencies in North Sumatra, as was the case in 2006, when Medan, the provincial capital, recorded the highest annual rainfall during the last 20 years. The responses of the farmers to the rice planting index and the proximity to palm oil enterprise estates, both of which vary across the province, are differentiated into three types: (1) land use conversion from rice production to oil palm plantation, (2) conversion to other cash crops, and (3) staying with rice production. As oil palm is more resilient to rainfall variability, land use conversion from rice to oil palm can be considered a good adaptation from the farmers perspective. The large scale of the conversions, however, may be a threat to the food security of the society as a whole. This indicates that the countermeasures face trade-offs between different social groups, as well as between adaptation actions and other development priorities.
Kawanishi, M; Mimura, N
Rice farmers' response to climate and socio-economic impacts: a case study in North Sumatra, Indonesia
Journal Of Agricultural Meteorology