Many heritage sites are threatened by rising sea levels under climate change as they lie within the coastal zone. A continental assessment of exposure of 284 African heritage sites shows that 20% of sites are currently at risk, which more than triples under moderate and high emission scenarios. The African coast contains heritage sites of 'Outstanding Universal Value' that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.
Vousdoukas, MI; Clarke, J; Ranasinghe, R; Reimann, L; Khalaf, N; Duong, TM; Ouweneel, B; Sabour, S; Iles, CE; Trisos, CH; Feyen, L; Mentaschi, L; Simpson, NP
African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates
Nature Climate Change