Some studies also seek to evaluate potential indirect links between climate and weather anomalies and prevalence of armed conflict via food price shocks or forced migration. While there is robust evidence that the likelihood of social unrest in the developing world generally increases in response to rapid growth in food prices , the magnitude of the climate effect on unrest via food prices is less well established . Similarly, research shows with high confidence that climate variability and extremes have affected human mobility , but there is low agreement and limited evidence that weather-induced migration has increased the likelihood of armed conflict . Research on weather-related effects on interstate security generally concludes that periods of transboundary water scarcity are more likely to facilitate increased international cooperation than conflict .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report