Climate change risk to the productivity of this rapidly expanding hydropower and irrigation infrastructure compound the overall WEF nexus risk. Future levels of rainfall, evaporation and runoff will have a substantial impact on hydropower and irrigation production. Climate models disagree on whether climates will become wetter or dryer in each river basin. Cervigni et al.  modelled revenues from the sale of hydroelectricity and irrigated crops in major African river basins under different climate scenarios between 2015 and 2050 . The study found that hydropower revenues in the driest climate scenarios could be 58% lower in the Zambezi River basin, 30% lower in the Orange basin and 7% lower in the Congo basin relative to a scenario with current climate conditions. Hydropower revenues in the wettest climate scenario could be more than 20% higher in the Zambezi river basin and 50% higher in the Orange basin. The biggest risk to the production of irrigated crops is in the eastern Nile where irrigation revenue could be 34% lower in the driest scenario and 11% higher in the wettest than in a scenario without climate change .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report