Studies on propensity to emigrate have uncovered conflicting results. Some findings suggest in low-income countries high temperatures 'trap' people at home and lower migration rates abroad, but in middle-income countries, these same high temperatures encourage emigration . However, other research finds in poor and agriculturally dependent countries, high temperatures encourage international out-migration, particularly to the OECD . Some evidence indicates people who leave tend to be more educated, possibly leading to 'brain drain' . Recent evidence suggests hotter-than-normal temperatures across 103 countries, including many in Africa, increased asylum applications to the European Union . Assuming no change in present-day vulnerability, asylum applications are projected to increase 34% across Africa  at 2.2°℃ global warming , although this finding has been challenged in the literature .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report