The Cynefin contexts relate to how well the system is understood for knowing precisely the outcomes of actions that may be taken, ranging from known, knowable and complex to chaotic. If a context is known or knowable, then it will be possible to build sophisticated models and make sound predictions. If the context is complex and chaotic the outcomes of actions will be less predictable, no matter how complex the models may be, although more complex dynamic models may be useful to test 'what if' scenarios in these cases . Under complex and chaotic circumstances an ensemble of models and approaches may be needed to help categorise a satisfactory 'solution space' across the broad knowledge of relationships and dependencies, but will need to have iterative processes to update and refine adaptations as knowledge improves .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report