Species distribution models of kelp project range shifts and local extirpations with increasing levels of warming . There is high agreement on the direction but not the magnitude of change , but effects of MHWs are not simulated. Where the length of higher-latitude coastlines is limited, range contractions are projected to occur, even with 2ºC of global warming  due to loss of habitat at the warm edge of species' ranges . Poleward expansion of warm-affinity herbivores, including urchins, could further reduce warm-edge kelp populations (Castro et al., 2020; Mulders and
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report