There is a recognised need to adapt and chose development pathways that are resilient to climate change while addressing key developmental challenges within dryland regions, notably, poverty, water and food insecurity, and a highly dispersed population with poor access to services . The current vision for development of dryland regions comes with both opportunities and threats to achieve a more climate-resilient future. For example, the growth in and exploitation of renewable energy resources, made possible through increased connectivity, brings climate mitigation gains but also risks. These risks include the uneven distribution of costs in terms of where the industry is sited compared with where benefits primarily accrue, and may exacerbate issues around water and food insecurity as strategic areas of land become harder to access . While LAPSSET will bring greater freedom of movement for commodities, benefitting investors, improving access to markets and urban centres, supporting trade or ease of movement for tourists supporting economic goals, it can also result in the relocation of people and impede access to certain locations for the resident populations. Mobility is a key adaptation behaviour employed in the short and long term to address issues linked with climatic variability . With modelled changes in the climate suggesting decreases in income associated with agricultural staples and livestock- dependent livelihoods, development that constrains mobility of local populations could retard resilience gains . The likely increase in urban populations and the growth in tourism and agriculture may lead to increases in water demand at a time when water availability could become more constrained owing to the reliance on surface water sources and the modelled increases in evapotranspiration due to rising mean temperature, more heatwave days and greater percentage of precipitation falling as storms . These pressures could make it harder to meet basic health and sanitation goals for rural and poorer urban populations, issues compounded further by likely increases in child malnutrition and diarrheal deaths linked to climate change . Development must pay adequate attention to these interconnections to ensure that costs and benefits of achieving climate mitigation and adaptation goals are distributed fairly within a population.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report