Since AR5, only a few studies focused specifically on the association between observed changes in the hydrological cycle linked to climate change and conflicts . Some studies associate conflicts with local abundance of water , mainly because of political mobilisation around abundant waters and the need for developing new rules of allocation among competing users. Others provide evidence that the increase in water availability in some areas compared with a decrease in other surrounding areas can affect the risk of a conflict in a region  . However, the large majority acknowledges reduction of water availability due to climate change as having the potential to exacerbate tensions , especially in regions and within groups dependent on agriculture for food production  . Particularly representative is the case of Syria, where drought aggravated existing water and agricultural insecurity . However, whether drought caused civil unrest in Syria remains highly debated . Additionally, there is no consensus on the causal association between observed climate changes and conflict . However, evidence suggests that changes in rainfall patterns amplify existing tensions ; examples include Syria, Iraq  and Yemen  . There is also medium evidence that in some regions of Africa , there are links between observed water stress and individual attitude for participating in violence, particularly for the least resilient individuals  . A reverse association from conflict to climate impacts has also been observed . For example, conflict-affected societies cannot address climate-change impacts due to other associated vulnerabilities such as poverty, food insecurity and political instability.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report