Climate change impacts carry the risk of amplifying or aggravating existing tensions within and between communities or countries . There is, however, limited evidence for a universal direct causal linkage between climate change and violent conflicts . The triggering of conflicts related to climate impacts is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the type of government or the level of development . A study of 156 countries  showed that an increase in periods of drought exacerbate the risk of conflict, especially in democratic countries. This influence was particularly marked during the period 2010-2012 in countries of western Asia and northern Africa that were undergoing political transformations, such as the Arab Spring. Conflict can then represent people's discontent in governments' inefficient responses to climate impacts . Research has noted conditions under which climate change can increase the risk of armed conflict, which includes ethnic exclusion, agricultural dependence, large populations, insufficient infrastructure, dysfunctional local institutions and low levels of development .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report