Increased frequency of extreme heat events and long-term increases in average temperatures pose future risks to the habitability of settlements in tropical and subtropical regions, and may in the long term affect migration patterns in exposed areas, especially under high emissions scenarios . Greater research into the specific dynamics between extreme heat and population movements is required in order to make an accurate assessment of this risk. Recent studies suggest that future increases in average temperatures could expose populations across wide areas of the tropics and subtropics to ambient temperatures for extended periods each year that are beyond the threshold for human habitability . This effect would be amplified in urban settings where heat-island effects occur and create a heightened need for air conditioning and other adaptation measures. In addition to risks associated with average temperature changes, Dosio et al.  project that at 1.5℃ warming, between 9% and 18% of the global population will be regularly exposed to extreme heat events at least once in five years, with the exposure rate nearly tripling with 2℃ warming. How these changes in exposure to high temperatures will affect future migration patterns, particularly among vulnerable groups, will depend heavily on future adaptation responses . Multiple country-level
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report