There are three identified trade routes in the Arctic: Northern Sea Route , Northwest Passages  and the Transpolar Sea Route . Over the last decade, economic trends and reductions in sea ice have facilitated significant increases in ship traffic in the NSR , including a 79% increase in total transit tonnage from 2010 to 2017  related mostly to domestic resource development. Relative to an early 21st century baseline, it is expected that the NSR will become 18% more accessible by mid-century  and could be navigable even for non-ice strengthened vessels for 101-118 days annually by 2050 and 125-192 days by 2100 . The NWP has experienced a tripling of km travelled by ships since 1990, attributed mostly to resource extraction and increases in tourism opportunities . The NWP could become 30% more accessible by 2050 compared with current conditions . Before 4℃ global warming above pre-industrial, re-supply vessels  in the western NWP could gain an additional month of operating time, whereas the eastern NWP could gain just 2 weeks  due to the dynamic import of mobile and hazardous ice from the Arctic Ocean . Comparatively, the TSR has historically only been viable for nuclear icebreakers, submarines, and occasional military and scientific activity due to thick multi-year ice regimes . However, this most sought-after route offers the greatest reduction in sailing times compared with southern routes  of all Arctic Sea routes and could be 56% more accessible by mid-century compared with current conditions .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report