The vulnerability of communities in the Himalayas to water stress caused by climate change depends on changes in the availability of water as well as how it is used. There has been little work done to reconcile these drivers of water stress in the Himalayas. This paper evaluates how climate change may affect water availability in two Nepalese mountain communities, Panglin and Tallo Lorpa, and assesses whether these changes drive vulnerability to water stress. First, estimates of hydrological change are made based on climate model output and hydroclimatological theory. Household surveys, focus group discussions and participatory rural appraisal techniques are used to assess vulnerability and adaptive capacity in each community. Finally, the expected effects of climate change on water availability are linked to findings on the communities' vulnerability to these changes. The results show that both communities are vulnerable to changes in water availability under climate change, but this vulnerability is small in comparison to adaptation opportunities. However, the ability to appropriate benefits from these opportunities is constrained, and it is the extent of this inhibition that determines vulnerability. These findings demonstrate that Malthusian interpretations may be inappropriate in the Himalayas, and highlight the importance of the constraints to climate change adaptation.
Gawith, D; Hill, D; Kingston, D
Determinants of vulnerability to the hydrological effects of climate change in rural communities: evidence from Nepal
Climate And Development