Only a very small number of studies have attempted to make systematic projections of future regional or global migration and displacement numbers under climate change. Key methodological challenges for making such projections include the availability of reliable data on migration within and between countries, definitional ambiguity in distinguishing climate-related migration from migration undertaken for other reasons, and accounting for the future influence of non-climatic factors. The most reliable example of such studies to date is a World Bank report by Rigaud et al.  that generated projections of future internal population displacements in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America by 2050 using multiple climate and development scenarios, resulting in a very large range of possible outcomes . An important outcome is the study's emphasis on how the potential for future migration and displacement will be strongly mediated by socioeconomic development pathways in low- and middle-income
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report