 and especially between the means of the different ensembles . At 4℃ global warming, the 50th percentile projection is for increased annual maximum 1-d precipitation over virtually all global land, with the median increase being over 20% for a majority of the land. The 95th percentile increase is 20-40% over most mid-latitude areas and at least 40-70% over the tropics and subtropics, exceeding 80% over western Amazonia, central Africa and most of the Indian sub-continent. The 5th percentile also shows an increase over most global land; in other words, decreased heavy precipitation has less than a 5% probability in these regions , although decreases remain possible but of low probability in some regions, particularly northern South America and northern and western Africa. At the 50th and 95th percentiles, similar global patterns of change are projected at 2°C and 1.5℃ global warming, with smaller local magnitudes . At the 5th percentile, decreased Rx1 day is seen over much larger land areas , which may be a result of internal climate variability being relatively larger than the long-term trend at lower GWLs. In CMIP5, precipitation extremes are projected to be more likely to increase than to decrease on average over both the humid and arid regions of the world, but with larger uncertainty in arid areas .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report