Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results are applied over several warming periods in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China's future heatwave population exposure under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios. Our results show a significant increase in projected future annual heatwave days (HD) under both scenarios. With an additional temperature increase of 0.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C of warming, by mid-century an additional 20.15 percent increase in annual HD would occur, over 1.5 degrees C warming. If the climate warmed from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C by mid-century, population exposure would increase by an additional 40.6 percent. Among the three influencing elements that cause the changes in population exposure related to heatwaves in China-climate, population, and interaction (e.g., as urbanization affects population redistribution)-climate plays the dominant role in different warming scenarios (relative contribution exceeds 70 percent). Therefore, considering the future heat risks, humanity benefits from a 0.5 degrees C reduction in warming, particularly in eastern China. This conclusion may provide helpful insights for developing mitigation strategies for climate change.
Wang, LB; Rohli, RV; Lin, QG; Jin, SF; Yan, XD
Impact of Extreme Heatwaves on Population Exposure in China Due to Additional Warming
Sustainability