Existing early warning systems remain insufficient and the complexity of urban landforms makes accurate and detailed early warning difficult  . This is particularly the case in low- and middle-income countries  where urban centres are often characterised by rapid expansion of interlinked formal and informal human settlements and land use zones. In such contexts, early warning services vary in effectiveness within the same urban centre . Often, forecast-based action follows linear structures where forecast information is applied mainly for responding to negative impacts rather than anticipatory decision-making and preparation to avoid such impacts . Early warning systems are effective for warning of threshold breaching events including cyclonic activity and riverine flooding but less able to provide localised warning, though capability is rapidly increasing. Probabilistic risk forecasting and forecast based early action are only beginning to be applied to urban contexts and often those that are most vulnerable do not receive warnings regarding hazardous events . There is less capacity for early warning systems in LMICs with key challenges linked to a lack of well-established risk baseline information; accessibility, communication and understanding of forecast information, as well as political and institutional barriers and limited resources and capacities to act on such information . Political and institutional barriers to the incorporation of climate information to decision-making are not limited to LMICs . For example, comprehensive studies on sectoral use of climate information in Europe revealed that, despite climate services becoming increasingly accessible and well resourced, there is limited organisational uptake of seasonal climate forecasts across key sectors  in informing their decision making processes . This is due both to technical and non-technical barriers such as lack of awareness and knowledge of climate information and forecasting .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report