With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing global extinction risk and biodiversity loss across more of Africa . Immigration of species from elsewhere may partly compensate for local extinctions and lead to local biodiversity gains in some regions . However, more regions face net losses than net gains. At 1.5℃ global warming, >46% of localities face net declines in vertebrate species richness of >10%, with net increases projected for less than 15% of localities . At >2ºC, 9% of species face complete range loss by 2100, regardless of their dispersal ability . With >4℃ global warming, a net loss of >10% of vertebrate species richness is projected across 85% of Africa . Mountain top endemics and species in north and southern Africa are at risk due to disappearing cold climates . For hot regions such as the Sahara, Congo Basin and Kalahari, no warmer-adapted species are available elsewhere to compensate for local extinctions, so the resilience of local biodiversity will depend entirely on the persistence of species . The capacity for species to avoid extinction through behavioural thermoregulation, plasticity or evolution is uncertain but will become increasingly unlikely under higher warming scenarios .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report