Rising temperatures are likely to cause poleward shifts and overall expansion in the distribution of mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the principal vectors of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika . Globally, the population exposed to disease transmission by one of these vectors is expected to increase significantly due to the combination of climate change and non-climatic processes including urbanisation and socioeconomic inter-connectivity, with exposure rates rising under higher warming scenarios . For example, approximately 50% of the global population is projected to be exposed to these vectors by 2050 under RCP6.0 . The effect of climate change alone is projected to increase the population exposed to Aedes aegypti by 8-12% by 2061-2080 , and its abundance is projected to increase by 20% under RCP2.6 and 30% under RCP8.5 by the end of the century . Exposure to transmission by Aedes albopictus specifically would be highest at intermediate climate change scenarios and would decrease in the warmest scenarios . Under scenarios other than RCP2.6, most of Europe would experience significant increases in exposure to viruses transmitted by both vectors .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report