Increases in conflict-related deaths with climate change have been estimated but results are inconclusive . Some studies attempted to attribute observed conflict outbreaks to changes in the physical environment and quantify future conflict risk associated with climate change . Burke et al.  concluded that with each one standard deviation increase in temperature, inter-personal conflict increased by 2.4% and inter-group conflict by 11.3%. However, the statistical methods have been criticised for under-representing the known role that socioeconomic conditions and conflict history play in determining the prevalence of violence . Forecasting armed conflict is used as a heuristic policy tool rather than a representation of the future  and forecasts have limitations. For example, what constitutes and is experienced as hazards and as drivers of conflict will shift over time as societies adapt to climate change . The SSPs assume economic convergence between countries and do not reflect growth disruptions  that are often a key conflict risk factor .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report