With high warming, the CMR for malaria among children under the age of 1 year could increase by 5.2-10.1/10,000 yr-1 in Africa under current vulnerability levels. This estimate assumes a net increase of 70-130 million more people exposed to potential disease transmission due to climate change in a high-warming scenario  , representing a 14-27% increase in the current population at risk , and assumes children under 1 year of age are facing the same crude mortality in the future as for the African region today . The largest increase is observed in Eastern Africa, where the population exposed could nearly double by 2080  without accounting for population growth, driven mainly by changes among previously unexposed populations at higher altitude areas . Actual future disease burden of malaria will be highly sensitive to regional socioeconomic development and the effectiveness of malaria intervention programs.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report