In the absence of any adaptation, Egypt, Mozambique, and Nigeria are projected to be worst affected by SLR in terms of the number of people at risk of flooding annually in a 4℃ warming scenario . Recent estimates have explored the potential damages due to SLR and coastal extreme events in 12 major African cities using a stochastic approach to account for uncertainty . The aggreate of expected average damages to these cities in 2050 is USD 65 billion for RCP4.5 and USD 86.5 billion for RCP8.5, and USD 137.5 billion under a high-end scenario that incorporates expert opinion on additional ice sheet melting with damages up to . When considering low-probability, high-damage events, aggregate damage risks can be more than twice as high, reaching USD 187 billion and USD 206 billion under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, and USD 397 billion under the high-end scenario. City characteristics and exposure play a larger role in expected damages and risk than changes in sea level. The city of Alexandria in north Africa leads the
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report