How the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution might inform climate change adaptation is hotly debated. Central to these debates is an understanding that event attribution's backward-looking orientation aligns poorly with the forward-facing goals of adaptation policy. Here, I analyze two new philosophical arguments that challenge this understanding and claim that probabilistic event attribution is not only forward-looking, but has a potentially significant role in risk-pooling adaptive strategies. I argue the purported forward-looking capabilities of event attribution are based on a mischaracterization of the scientific methodology, and one consequence of this mischaracterization is a limited role in adaptive risk-pooling schemes.
Lusk, G
Looking Forward and Backward at Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Policy
Ethics Policy & Environment