Climate change may increase susceptibility to violent conflict, primarily intra-state conflicts, by strengthening climate-sensitive drivers of conflict . Future violent conflict risk is highly mediated by socioeconomic development trajectories  and so trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk . Future climate change may exceed adaptation limits and generate new causal pathways not observed under current climate variability . Economic shocks are not included in many models of conflict risks currently used, and some projections do not incorporate known socioeconomic predictors of conflict . As such, future increases in conflict- related deaths with climate change have been estimated, but results are inconclusive .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report