The same lack of general causality is largely concluded on the specific link between climate change and conflict , but a minority of quantitative studies argue for a stronger causal association . Mach et al.  found considerable agreement among experts that climate variability and change have influenced the risk of organised armed conflict within countries, but they also agreed that other factors, such as state capacity and level of socioeconomic development, played a much larger role. These factors also play a role in determining adaptation possibilities and in shaping the enabling environment .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report