Multi-year droughts have become more frequent in west Africa, and the 2015-2017 Cape Town drought was three times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Above 2℃ global warming, drought frequency is projected to increase, and duration will double from approximately 2 to 4 months over north Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa. Estimates of increased exposure to water stress are higher than those for decreases. By 2050, climate change could expose an additional 951 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to water stress while also reducing exposure to water stress by 459 million people. Compared to population in 2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to triple for a scenario of low population growth and 1.6℃ global warming. Changing rainfall distributions together with warming temperatures will alter the distributions of disease vectors like mosquitoes and midges. Malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase in east and southern Africa and the Sahel under even moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by the 2030s, exposing an additional 50.6-62.1 million people to malaria risk.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report