Understanding the processes of individual adaptation to the consequences of climate change and of the public reaction to adaptation strategies defined in policy is a challenging field of research. We address this issue using the case of the Northern Hesse region located in the centre of Germany by developing a spatially explicit, multi-agent simulation model. Agents are grouped according to their social stratification by lifestyle and initialised by large scale, spatially explicit socio-empirical data. One important adaptation requirement will be volunteering activities that provide local neighbourhood support to supplement public health care during heat waves. We present modelling results on this topic and demonstrate how simulations may support the formation of health policies. As a result, we identify (areas with) populations with low potential for self-organised neighbourhood assistance and those with potentially efficient neighbourhood support. Furthermore, we investigate two different intervention scenarios that aim to mobilise passive subpopulations. The results of the presented scenario assessment may be used to inform policy makers and stakeholders on possible targets of information campaigns and will provide insights into the interplay of barriers and incentives regarding the individual actions regarding adaption to climate change and their trajectories.
Krebs, F; Holzhauer, S; Ernst, A
Modelling the Role of Neighbourhood Support in Regional Climate Change Adaptation
Applied Spatial Analysis And Policy