In a study with multiple climate models, global water models and scenarios, the choice of drought definition was the dominant source of uncertainty in the sign of projected change in drought frequency in over 17% of global land by 2070-2099, including several major wheat- and maize-growing areas where agricultural  drought is of high importance . Cook et al.  noted that in the CMIP6 projections, soil moisture and runoff drying are more robust, spatially extensive and severe than precipitation, resulting in the frequency of agricultural drought increasing over wider areas than for meteorological drought. At 1.5℃ global warming, the likelihood of extreme agricultural  drought is projected to at least double  over large areas of northern South America, the Mediterranean, western China and high latitudes in North America and Eurasia . The likelihood is projected to increase by 150-200% in these regions at 2℃ global warming, with an expansion of the affected areas, and increase by over 200% at 4℃ global warming. Agricultural drought likelihood also increases by 100-250% at 4℃ global warming in southwestern North America, southwest Africa, southern Asia and Australia. The likelihood of extreme drought is projected to decrease in central North America, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the eastern Indian sub-continent and parts of western and eastern Asia. Using eight global hydrological models driven by a subset of four of the CMIP5 climate models, Lange et al.  projected a 370%  increase of the global population annually exposed to agricultural  droughts in response to 2°℃ global warming. Therefore, it is essential to consider the drought type when applying drought projections to impact and risk in decision- making, especially for informing adaptation. For example, if responses are explicitly tailored to agricultural  drought changes, projected changes in a meteorological  drought metric may not provide accurate information.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report