The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects climate change effects based on several scenarios and highlights the potential regional changes of bioclimatic pressures up until 2100. Understanding the effects of climate change on the ecosystems is of utmost importance for nature conservation; biodiversity in riverine and coastal areas is threatened by temperature increase by weather-related events like floods and droughts. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the performance of a given nature-based solution and nature conservation management plan's success (or failure) to account for climate change. For the purpose of the evaluation, management plans are analysed against the UN Sustainable Development Goals targets. The case studies analysed include twelve nature-based solution sites in riverine and coastal areas, distributed across Europe, Oceania and North America. Their sustainable development goals performance is analysed quantitatively for the Sustainable Development Goals-Sustainable Index Score, open-source indicator data and qualitatively for the nature conservation management plans. Sustainable development goals considered include the following: clean water and sanitation (6); industry, innovation & infrastructure (9); sustainable cities and communities (11); responsible consumption and production (12); climate action (13); life below water (14); life on land (15). The International Panel on Climate Change projections under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways1-2.6 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways5-8.5 scenarios are used to gain evidence of the role nature-based solutions and nature conservation management plans can play in adaptation trajectories for climate change and biodiversity conservation. The results highlight that most nature conservation management plans and the nature-based solution they typically rely upon, do not pay sufficient attention to climate change. The evidence suggests that the studied nature-based solution sites are not on track to achieve selected sustainable development goals when climate change impacts under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways1-2.6 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways5-8.5 scenarios are factored in. Through this evaluation, riverine conservation areas are identified as requiring more rigorous climate adaptation strategies and nature conservation planning to enhance resilience and to have the potential of fulfilling the addressed SDGs.
Hielkema, TW; Schipper, CA; Gersonius, B
Global nature conservation and the apparent ineffective adaptation to climate pressures
Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management