Principle of method is in the analysis of external environment for key factors and their combining for creating alternative development scenarios. Alternatives formed in the scenario approach allow identifying an aggregate of possible directions of environment development and thus create a basis for making strategic decisions. This paper considers theoretical and methodological basis of scenario planning, including various approaches and methods of scenario formation. Experience of this method application in Kazakhstan and abroad was studied. The paper identifies natural factors affecting water-supply conditions. Advisability of forming external environment development scenarios was justified for further development of alternative strategies for hydrogeological survey improvement. Based on the algorithm of forming and transboundary levels until 2030 of the proposed principles, scenarios were developed for creating plans of sustainable water-supply under conditions of climatic and anthropogenic changes at the regional, national and transboundary levels. In order to develop strategies and scenarios, as well as to identify vulnerabilities and negative impacts of climate change, it is necessary to have complete information and data on the entire basin. Therefore, it is necessary to collect and share the necessary information, data and models related to the basin as a whole, as well as all components of the water cycle. Managing the process of adaptation to climate change, it is necessary to monitor the situation and regularly update assessments, climate change scenarios and forecasts of the state of the water balance. Climate change should be considered as one of the main causes of changes in the environment of water basins, and as one of the many factors that put pressure on water resources. Therefore, adaptation scenarios for specific basins should take into account not only climate change, but also changes in the demographic situation, economic growth dynamics, dietary preferences, and so on. These scenarios should be developed with the greatest possible cooperation with neighboring countries, and most importantly, using data and models that are consistent with them.
Mukhamedzhanov, MA; Sagin, J; Rakhimov, TA; Arystanbaev, YO
DEVELOPING SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE WATER-SUPPLY FOR KAZAKHSTAN POPULATION AND ECONOMY UNDER CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES AT THE REGIONAL, NATIONAL, AND TRANSBOUNDARY LEVELS UNTIL 2030
News Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The Republic Of Kazakhstan-Series Of Geology And Technical Sciences