In this article, we analyze the impact of climate change on the nomadic migration flows through a cliometric study conducted on Historical China throughout two thousand years. Our econometric results enable us to outline different regimes - both climatic and historical - via a time series analysis taking into account nonlinearity. When the rainfalls have been scarce, nomadic migrations from North to South China have been aggravated. During these periods/regimes, the temperatures, probably at a too high level, have reinforced these migrations; this result has not been demonstrated in the previous literature. The role of precipitations has probably been overestimated in previous literature while the role of temperatures changes has been a bit underestimated, at less the interaction between both climatic variables has maybe been underestimated. The climate change, by modifying the agricultural yields from pastoralists in arid or semi-arid regions, has been at the origin of many migrations' flows. Nomadic populations adaptation to climate change generated many migrations from North to the South where agricultural crops were more likely to grow. However, these migrations flows lead to interpersonal conflicts initiated by pastoralists nomads and to which agriculturalists from the South responded. These results are wondering about the interrelationships between climate, migrations and conflicts in developing countries that are likely to increase in a near future.
Damette, O; Pei, Q
Climate change and migrations : taking a fresh look through nomadic migrations in historical China analysis
Region Et Developpement