Tropical and subtropical islands face risks from vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, and the Zika virus. El Niño events can increase the risk of diseases such as Zika virus by increasing biting rates, decreasing mosquito mortality rates and shortening the time required for the virus to replicate within the mosquito . By combining disease prediction models with climate indicators that are routinely monitored, alongside evaluation tools, it is possible to generate probabilistic dengue outlooks in the Caribbean and early warning systems . Projections suggest that more individuals will become at risk of dengue fever by the 2030s and beyond because of an increasing abundance of mosquitos and larger geographic range . Projected increases in mean temperature could double the dengue burden in New Caledonia by 2100 . In the Caribbean, Saharan dust transported across the Atlantic can interact with Caribbean seasonal climatic conditions to become respirable and contribute to asthma presentations at the emergency department .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report