population growth  by the 2060s, with increases of 20-52 times 1985-2005 levels by 2080-2100, depending on the scenario . West Africa  has the highest absolute exposure and southern Africa the least. Considering the urban heat island effect, the more vulnerable populations under 5 and over 64 exposed to heat waves of >15 days over 42℃ are projected to increase from 27 million in 2010 to 360 million by 2100 for low population growth  with 1.8℃ global warming, increasing to 440 million for low population growth  with >4℃ global warming, with west Africa most affected . This portends increased vulnerability to risk of heat stress in big cities of central, east and west Africa  . Shifting to a low urban population growth pathway is projected to achieve a greater reduction in aggregate exposure to extreme heat for most cities in west Africa, whereas limiting warming through lower emissions pathways achieves greater reductions in exposure in central and east Africa .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report