Due to wash-over events exacerbated by sea level rise and lens thinning due to pumping, recovery time for FWLs is projected to take substantially longer . Projections indicate that atolls may be unable to provide domestic freshwater resources due to the lack of potable groundwater by 2030 , 2040  or the 2060s  . Projections of future freshwater availability in small islands further underline these substantial risks to island water security . Population growth, changes in rainfall patterns and agricultural demand are projected to increase water stress in small islands . While some islands are projected to experience an increase in rainfall patterns, this may refer to shorter intense rainfall events, thereby increasing the risk of flooding during the wet season, while not decreasing their risk of droughts during dry periods . In addition, projected shifts in the timing of the rainfall season might pose an additional risk for water supply systems .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report