In an assessment using multiple lines of evidence, including models, observational constraints and improved understanding of climate sensitivity, WGI project a central estimate of the 20-year average warming crossing the 1.5°C GWL in the early 2030s in all scenarios assessed, except SSP5-8.5 . This is about 10 years earlier than the midpoint of the likely range  assessed in SR1.5, which assumed continuation of the observed warming rate reported at that time. However, this does not imply that the projected impacts of 1.5℃ will be reached 10 years earlier, because roughly half of the 10-year difference is a result of updating the diagnosed historical rate of warming due to methodological advances, new datasets and other improvements . The other half of the 10-year difference arises because, for central estimates of climate sensitivity, most scenarios show stronger warming over the near term than was assessed as 'current' in SR1.5 .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report