Vegetation changes interacting with climate and land use change have impacted fire regimes across Africa. The frequency of weather conducive for fire has increased in southern and west Africa and is expected to continue increasing in the 21st century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 . Increased grass cover in arid regions introduced fire into regions where fuel was previously insufficient to allow fire spread, such as the arid Karoo in South Africa . In contrast, shrub encroachment, increased precipitation , vegetation fragmentation and cropland expansion have reduced fire activity in many African grasslands and savannas . These drivers are expected to negate the effect of increasing fire weather and ultimately lead to a reduction in the total burned area under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report