Adaptation to climate change is crucial for China due to its huge population and various and vulnerable ecosystems. Agriculture will, however, continue to be the most important sector to adapt to climate change: nearly 70 per cent of China's population depends directly on agriculture. Like other developing countries, China will need to develop adaptation strategies imposed by climate change against a background of existing poverty, resource and infrastructure constraints. Northeast China was selected for this case study because it illustrates how anticipatory adaptation can lead to positive impacts from climate change. This region is already one of the most important bases of commercial food grains (wheat, rice and maize) and economic crops (soybean, sugar beets). Recent climate warming has on the one hand created favourable conditions for agricultural development in Northeast China through a prolonged growth period, northward movement of accumulated temperature belts and decreases of cold stress. On the other hand, environment and natural resource problems (e.g. water shortage, urbanisation) have placed enormous regional stress on agricultural production and ecosystems, illustrating the complex nature of the impacts of climate change. This case study demonstrates that the positive opportunities provided by climate change will not happen automatically but will require communities to be supported through resources such as extension services, new crop varieties and institutional frameworks that allow experimentation and reward entrepreneurship. Over the longer term and at higher temperatures, the negative impacts of climate change, such as increased water stress and extreme events, may mean a decrease or even a reversal of the potential benefits of temperature increases in the short term.
Lin, ED; Yang, X; Ma, SM; Ju, H; Guo, LP; Xiong, W; Li, Y; Xu, YL
Case study 1: China benefiting from global warming: Agricultural production in Northeast China
Ids Bulletin-Institute Of Development Studies