events that would have occurred once in 50 years in the absence of anthropogenic climate change are projected to become 13.9 times more likely with 2ºC warming, and 39.2 times more likely with 4℃ warming , indicating a nonlinear increase with warming. Chapter 2 assessed that risk of wildfire transitions from moderate to high over the range 1.5℃ to 2.5℃ warming . The intensity of heavy precipitation events increases overall by about 7% for each additional degree of global warming , while their frequency increases nonlinearly. Events that would have occurred once every 10 years in a climate without human influence are projected to become 1.7 times more likely with 2ºC warming, and 2.7 times more likely with 4℃ warming . Several AR6 regions are projected to be affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts at 2°C of global warming, including western North America, central North America, northern Central America, southern Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, northeastern South America, South American Monsoon, southwestern South America, southern South America, West and Central Europe, the Mediterranean, western Southern Africa, eastern Southern Africa, Madagascar, eastern Australia and southern Australia . This is a substantially larger number compared with projections at 1.5℃ . In these drying regions, events that would have occurred once every 10 years in a climate without human influence are projected to happen 2.4 times more frequently at 2℃ of global warming . Urban land exposed to floods and droughts is very likely to have more than doubled between 2000 and 2030, and the risk of flooding accelerates after 2050 . At 2°℃ of global warming, there are also significant projected increases in fluvial flood frequency and resultant risks associated with higher populations exposed to these flood risks .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report