Climate change is expected to increase dengue risk and facilitate its global spread, with the risk being greatest under high emissions scenarios . Future exposure to risk will be influenced by the combined effects of climate change and non-climatic factors such as population density and economic development . Overall, risk levels are expected to rise on all continents . Compared to 2015, an additional 1 billion people are projected to be at risk of dengue exposure by 2080 under an SSP1-4.5 scenario, 2.25 billion under SSP2-6.0, and 5 billion under SSP3-8.5 . In North America, risk is projected to expand in north-central Mexico, with annual dengue incidence in Mexico increasing by up to 40% by 2080, and expand from US southern states to mid-western regions . In China, under RCP8.5, dengue exposure would increase from 168 million people in 142 counties to 490 million people in 456 counties by the late 2100s . In Nepal, dengue fever is expected to expand throughout the 2050s and 2070s under all RCPs . In Tanzania, there is a projected shift in distribution towards central and northeastern areas and risk intensification in nearly all parts of the country by 2050 . Dengue vectorial capacity is projected to increase in Korea under higher RCP scenarios .
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report