A decline of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emission is expected worldwide over the coming decades. But the climate effects of aerosol removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission at regional scale are poorly distinguished and constrained. Taking the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as an instance, analyses of the state-of-the-art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project imply that while the observed warming from 1961 to 2020 is predominantly attributed to GHG emission, the future temperature rise will be influenced by the combined effects of persistent increase in GHG concentration and reduction of AA emission. Here, we develop a new constraint method considering the changed contribution of AA forcing. Constrained by detected individual external forcings, the joint contributions of GHG (1.74 & DEG;C) and AA forcings (0.10 & DEG;C) will lead to a warming around 1.85 & DEG;C over the TP during mid-century (2041-2060) relative to 1995-2014 under SSP2-4.5 scenario, which is 0.44 & DEG;C cooler than the raw projection. The rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has led to increased risks to ecological environment and even the livelihoods and health of the people. A reliable projection on future warming and a deeper understanding of the contributions of the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA) removal and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission are necessary for climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Here, using the state-of-the-art climate models participating in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, we found that the while the GHG emission has and will continue to warm the TP from 1961 to 2100, the changes in AA emission have partly offset the warming trend induced by GHG forcing before the late 2000s but will accelerate the warming rate induced by GHG forcing in the future. According to on our new constraint method considering the changed emission condition of AA, the joint contributions of GHG emission (1.74 & DEG;C) and AA removal (0.10 & DEG;C) will lead to a warming around 1.85 & DEG;C over the TP during mid-century (2041-2060) relative to 1995-2014 under intermediate-emission scenario. Both the effects of GHG and AA to TP future warming are overestimated by the state-of-the-art climate models. Anthropogenic aerosol removal will accelerate the Tibetan Plateau (TP) warming induced by greenhouse gas emission over the coming decadesThe TP will warm by 1.85 & DEG;C (2.69 & DEG;C) in 2041-2060 (2081-2100) relative to 1995-2014 under intermediate-emission scenarioConstrained responses to individual external forcings projects weaker TP warming than the raw projections
Jiang, J; Zhou, TJ
Observational Constraint on the Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Anthropogenic Aerosol Removal to Tibetan Plateau Future Warming
Geophysical Research Letters