Communication theory suggests that interactive dialog rather than information transmission is necessary for climate change action, especially for complex systems like agriculture. Climate analogs-locations whose current climate is similar to a target location's future climate-have garnered recent interest as transmitting more relatable information; however, they have unexplored potential in facilitating meaningful dialogs, and whether the way the analogs are developed could make a difference. We developed climate context-specific analogs based on agriculturally-relevant climate metrics for US specialty crop production, and explored their potential for facilitating dialogs on climate adaptation options. Over 80% of US specialty crop counties had acceptable US analogs for the mid-twenty-first century, especially in the West and Northeast which had greater similarities in the crops produced across target-analog pairs. Western counties generally had analogs to the south, and those in other regions had them to the west. A pilot dialog of target-analog pairs showed promise in eliciting actionable adaptation insights, indicating potential value in incorporating analog-driven dialogs more broadly in climate change communication.
Chaudhary, S; Rajagopalan, K; Kruger, CE; Brady, MP; Fraisse, CW; Gustafson, D; Hall, SA; Hoogenboom, G; Melnick, RL; Reyes, J; Stöckle, CO; Sulser, TB
Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation
Scientific Reports