Since AR5, significant progress has been made in understanding how changes in climate influence the seasonal and geographical range of malaria vectors, transmission intensity and burden of disease of malaria across Africa. Yet projecting changes remains challenging given the range of factors that influence transmission and disease patterns, and model outputs contain high degrees of uncertainty . Models have limited ability to account for population changes and development trends , investments in health sectors and interventions , and confounders such as age, socioeconomic status, employment, labour migration and climate variability . Nevertheless, available models do allow for projections of malaria transmission under different climate change scenarios to be made with high levels of certainty.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report