Complex causal pathways and lack of long-term projection studies presently prevent making confident quantitative judgements about how risks to peace and human mobility will materialise in response to specific warming levels, development pathways and adaptation scenarios. Literature concludes with medium confidence that risks to peace will increase with warming, with the largest impacts expected in weather- sensitive communities with low resilience to climate extremes and high prevalence of underlying risk factors . However, climate-driven impacts on societies will depend critically on future political and socioeconomic development trajectories , suggesting that risks due to climate change are relevant primarily for highly vulnerable populations and for pessimistic development scenarios. Overall risks to peace may decline despite warming if non-climatic determinants are reduced sufficiently in the future.
IPCC
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
IPCC Report