Assessing the effects of weather and climate on agricultural production is crucial for designing policies related to climate change adaptation and mitigation. A large body of literature has identified the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields worldwide, and farm-level adaptation has been shown to mitigate the adverse effects on agricultural production. In this study, we employ a structural model to examine farm production responses to ongoing weather trends. We investigate how farmers adjust output and input decisions by estimating a system of output supply and input demand functions, controlling for nonrandom crop selection. Using panel data with 14,796 observations reflecting 1638 German crop farms (1996-2019), we find that both the expected and realized weather determine farmers' production decisions. In the event of a drought, the supply of most considered crops and the demand for fertilizer decrease. The drought shock has also lasting effects on farmers' production decisions, with a reduced supply of protein crops and an increased level of root crops production in subsequent years. These findings highlight the need to account for farm-level production responses when assessing weather and climate impacts.
Wimmer, S; Stetter, C; Schmitt, J; Finger, R
Farm-level responses to weather trends: A structural model
American Journal Of Agricultural Economics