The paper discusses the reasons for the stabilization of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. The decrease in emissions cannot be explained by economic reasons. Interannual temperature variations do not have a strong impact on the global dynamics of CO2, because energy consumption for air conditioning and heating in the world almost neutralize each other. Stabilizing emissions does not mean that they will go down - it is more likely that global emissions will be around the same level until 2030. Thus, the assessment of global dynamics according to the 3 degrees C pathway (based on the country's current national goals - INDC/NDC) remains valid. The active process of replacement of coal with gas, renewables and nuclear generation in China and the United States is the main reason of this stabilization. The decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is already clearly demonstrated across the world, except some underdeveloped countries, despite the fact that a definite correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions is expected to be observed for a long time. Obviously, decoupling for developing countries is still far away. It is too early to judge the global dynamics of emissions after 2030, but with some confidence we can say that until 2030, international payments for emissions will most likely not be introduced. The situation will depend both on climate change risks and possible damage caused by the consequences of climate change for the largest countries, and on the economic parameters of the use of various energy sources.
Kokorin, AO; Potashnikov, VY
Global Low Carbon Trend of Development as a Driving Force for Paris Agreement Implementation
Ekonomicheskaya Politika