Study region: The Bas-Loukkos catchment, a Mediterranean catchment in northern Morocco exposed to growing water withdrawal caused mainly by agricultural development.Study focus: For adaptation to climate change, water managers have to consider the high and various uncertainties. To assess impacts of climate change on projected water resources, this study aimed to develop a smart analysis framework to provide scientific information by exploring the complexity of many projections combined with hydrological models. Uncertainties were quantified using 13 pair-wise combinations of 5 regional climate models forced by 4 global climate models under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), data with and without bias correction (using empirical quantile mapping), and two sets of GR2M hydrological model pa-rameters corresponding to different precipitation conditions. The Budyko hypothesis was used to analyse combined effects of climate change on water resources according to water-withdrawal scenarios. Climate and hydrological projections have been analyzed over three periods: short-term [2020-2040], medium-term [2041-2060] and long-term [2081-2100].New hydrological insights for the region: Results from all simulations indicate that, in the long term (2081-2100), precipitation and discharge will decrease by ca. 21-38% and ca. 50-71%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1981-2005). Consequently, this decline in water resources will require water management strategies to adapt to the future climatic conditions and water demand.
Hrour, Y; Fovet, O; Lacombe, G; Rousseau-Gueutin, P; Sebari, K; Pichelin, P; Thomas, Z
A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios
Journal Of Hydrology-Regional Studies