Abana bafite amabendera mu kwiyamamaza muri leta ya Delaware Iyi nshuro ariko ntibisanzwe kuko abakandida Donald Trump na Joe Biden nta witeguye kwemera ko yatsinzwe, Abanyamerika bafite ubwoba bw'urugomo. Kongera kubarura amajwi, ibirego mu nkiko byanga ibyayavuyemo, imidugararo mu gihugu, ibi ni ibintu bamwe babona ko byitezwe muri Amerika. Gusa ibi bishobora kwirindwa mu gihe Abanyamerika bemeye gutegereza ibyavuye mu matora. Ariko gutegereza igihe kingana gute? Iki ni cyo kibazo nyamukuru. Ikibazo ni ikihe? Gutora n'iposita. Mu matora yo mu 2016, Abanyamerika miliyoni 33 batoye bakoresheje iposita. Uyu mwaka, kubera coronavirus, abagera kuri miliyoni 82 basabye gutora batyo. Ariko umunsi w'itora wageze leta nyinshi zikirwana no gukuraho amategeko ashaje agena igihe amajwi yo ku iposita afungurirwa akabarwa. Bakora ari babiri bo mu mashyaka abiri atandukanye, aha ni muri leta ya Maryland yabaye iya mbere muri Amerika gutangira kubarura amajwi y'abatoye bakoresheje iposita Urugero muri Michigan, imwe muri leta z'ingenzi zitagira uruhande ruhoraho zitora, abantu bagera kuri miliyoni eshatu biteganyijwe ko batora n'iposita. Ariko, kuko badashobora gutangira kubara amajwi mbere y'umunsi w'itora, bishobora gufata iminsi kugira ngo Michigan ivuge ibyavuye mu matora. Aho kandi bikaba nta kongera kubara amajwi kwabaye. Uburyo bwo kugeza ubutumwa bw'iposita aho bugenewe ubu birimo ibibazo kubera iki cyorezo n'amatora, Perezida Trump nawe yahagaritse amafaranga y'ibikorwa byihutirwa yari agenewe Serivisi y'Iposita ya Amerika kuko avuga ko gutora muri ubwo buryo bibangamiye uruhande rwe. Imibare yerekana ko Abademokarate ari bo bari gutora muri ubu buryo ari benshi kurusha Abarepubulikani bo bashaka kwigira ku biro by'itora uyu munsi. Umukozi w'iposita atunganya amakarito yuzuyemo amajwi y'abatoye muri leta ya Oregon Ikibazo cya kabiri ni ibirego mu nkiko. Iyo ibyavuye mu matora byegeranye cyane ku buryo hatahita havugwa uwatsinze, abantu benshi batinya ko bigera mu nkiko barega ko hari amajwi atabazwe, ibi bitinza itangazwa ry'ibyavuye mu matora. Impamvu ikunze kubaho cyane ni amajwi yanga kubarwa kuko yoherejwe akagera aho abarurirwa yatinze cyane. Izindi mpamvu zibamo imikono itari ukuri cyangwa kubura kw'urupapuro rw'itora rw'ibanga. Kubera umubare munini cyane bidasanzwe w'abatoye bikazoherezwa n'iposita, gukerererwa no kutabarwa kw'amajwi amwe nabyo byitezwe ko biziyongera. Mu matora ya 2016, Perezida Trump yatsinze muri leta ya Michigan arusha uwo bahatanye amajwi ari munsi ya 11,000. Icyo ni ikinyuranyo gito iyo utekereje ko mu matora y'ibanze yabaye muri iyi leta mu kwezi kwa munani amajwi arenga 10,000 atabaruwe kubera ko yageze aho abarirwa atinze cyane kubara byarangiye. Iyo mu ijoro ry'amatora amajwi yerekana ko abahatana begeranye cyane, muri leta nyinshi zisanzwe zidafite uruhande ruzwi zitora ya majwi aba atabaruwe kuko yakererewe ahinduka ikibazo gikomeye. Byashoboka ko ibyayavuyemo bimenyekana uyu munsi? Yego. Nubwo bwose haba ubukerererwe bw'iposita, urebeye ku makusanyabitekerezo ariho ubu, mu mibare birashoboka ko hari uwarara atsinze. Ariko bigasaba ko uwo mukandida aba yatsinze ku bwiganze. Biden mu kwiyamamaza muri leta ya Michigan Kugira ngo Biden cyangwa Trump hagire utsinda biramusaba kurenza amajwi atora 270. Ibi ni ukubera ko perezida wa Amerika adatorwa mu buryo butaziguye n'abaturaga batoye, ahubwo n'amajwi atora agenewe buri leta mu zigize Amerika. Muri Amerika yose habarwa amajwi atora (electoral votes) yose hamwe 538. Ayo majwi atora atangwa hashingiwe ku mubare w'abatuye buri leta zose zigize Amerika. California ni yo igira umubare munini w'ayo majwi - 55 - mu gihe izindi leta zifite abaturage bacye nka Wyoming, Alaska na North Dakota usanga zibarirwa atatu. Muri buri leta, umukandida wagize amajwi menshi ahita ahabwa uwo mubare wose w'amajwi (electoral votes) y'iyo leta. Urugero: Uyu munsi umukandida uri bubone amajwi 50,1% y'abaturage batoye muri leta ya Texas arahita ahabwa amajwi yose atora 38 agenewe leta ya Texas. Kugeza kuri uyu munsi w'amatora Abanyamerika barenga miliyoni 70 bamaze kohereza amajwi yabo cyangwa se bamaze kujya gutora ubwabo. Uyu mubare usobanuye ko abarenga 1/2 cy'abatoye bose hamwe mu 2016 ubu bamaze gutora mbere y'umunsi nyirizina. Mu 2016, Donald Trump yishimiye intsinzi ahagana saa munani z'ijoro ry'umunsi w'itora (hari saa moya z'igitondo ku isaha ngengamasaha, GMT), hari nyuma y'uko leta ya Wisconsin imugejeje hejuru y'amajwi atora 270. Gusa uyu mwaka kubera ubwiyongere bw'abatoye n'iposita, ziriya leta nyinshi zisanzwe ari isibaniro ry'abakandika kuko zisanzwe zitagira uruhande ruzwi zitora, ibyavuye mu matora yaho bishobora kutamenyekana iri joro. Michigan, Pennsylvania na Wisconsin ni zimwe muri ziriya leta zifite amategeko ko amajwi y'iposita atangira kubarurwa ku munsi gusa w'amatora. Ndetse byaba ngombwa hakaba kongera kubara amajwi bwa kabiri no kuregera inkiko, mu gihe amajwi yegeranye cyane ku kuba hakemezwa uwatsinze. Gusa, ahari icyizere, ni muri Florida. Trump mu kwiyamamaza kurimo abantu benshi muri Pennsylvania Iyi ni imwe muri leta nini ziri muri ziriya zitagira uruhande - igira amajwi atora 29. Iyi leta ni imwe mu zigena niba umukandida runaka ashobora kurara amenye niba yatsinze amatora. Amategeko ya Florida avuga ko kugenzura no kubara amajwi y'iposita bishobora gutangira iminsi 40 mbere y'amatora. Ibi rero hano byaratangiye kandi biteganyijwe ko bishobora kurangira uyu munsi. Niba Biden, uri imbere mu makusanyabitekerezo, atsinzwe muri Florida, biraba ikimenyetso ko ashobora kudatsinda mu ijoro rya none. Gusa nanone ashobora kurenga ya majwi atora 270 aramutse atsinze amajwi akomatanyijwe ya leta za North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa na Ohio. Joe Biden avugana n'abanyamakuru muri North Carolina Mu gihe Trump ari inyuma mu makusanyabitekerezo, mu gihe yaba atsinze Florida, byamusaba gutsinda n'ahandi kugira ngo arare yegukanye intsinzi kubera bene ziriya leta nyinshi bitazwi niba zirara zitangaje uwatsinze. Niba kandi hatabayeho kwibeshya mu kubara amajwi. Amateka ya vuba, harimo no mu 2016, yerekana ko hari ukwibeshya kuba mu kubara amajwi amwe. Ibinyamakuru biraza nanone kuvuga uwatsinze mbere? Imbaraga z'itangazamakuru rya Amerika mu ijoro ry'amatora ziba ziteye inkeke. Mu matora yabayeho mbere, televiziyo zikomeye zagiye "zivuga" ibyavuye mu matora mbere cyane ko amajwi anabarwa. Mu gukorana n'inzobere mu makusanyabitekerezo zivugana n'abatoye, ibinyamakuru bikomeye biba bitanguranwa kuba aba mbere gutangaza uwatsinze. Iyo hari "uwatsinze" uvuzwe n'itangazamakuru, umukandida "watsinzwe" kenshi biba byitezweho ko ahita yemera ko yatsinzwe, mbere y'uko abantu bajya kwiryamira, rero uwatsinze ashobora kwemeza ko ari we watsinze kuri ibyo bitangazamakuru. Ariko ubu muri 2020 kubera miliyoni z'amajwi y'iposita aza kuba atarabarwa uyu munsi nijoro, agahenge karatangwa no kuba ibinyamakuru muri Amerika biza kubasha kwihangana. Benshi baratinya ko hashobora kuba akajagari kabaye mu 2000 igihe George W Bush yari ahatanye na Al Gore. Kuri iyi nshuro bwo byitezwe ko byarenga akajagari bikaba imidugararo mu gihugu. Icyo gihe mu ijoro ry'amatora, nubwo bwose ibiro byinshi by'amatora byavugaga ko amajwi yegeranye cyane ku buryo batavuga uwatsinze, televiziyo nyinshi zahaye Al Gore intsinzi muri leta ikomeye mu matora ya Florida, mbere y'uko bihinduka bagasanga ari Bush wahatsinze. Gore yemeye ko yatsinzwe, ariko Florida iba isibaniro kurusha uko byibazwaga mbere, nyuma Gore yavuze ko yisubiyeho ku kwemera gutsindwa. Byafashe iminsi 36 nyuma n'ikirego mu Rukiko rw'Ikirenga, Abanyamerika bamenye ko Gore yatsinze mu majwi menshi y'abaturage batora, ariko Bush atsinda kubera amajwi menshi atora (electrola college), bityo aba perezida. George W Bush yishimira intsinzi ye mu 2000 muri leta ya Florida Amerika mu 2020 yashegeshwe na coronavirus, icikamo ibice kubera inkubiri ya Black Lives Matter, none ubu Abanyamerika bagomba no gutegereza perezida wabo muri aya matora.