108d4836_brary_of_Economics_and_Liberty__ast_Highlights_HIDE_HIGHLIGHTS
[Time] 28:13
Robin Hanson, conversation. Therapist, role is to repeat. In the end, no question here. Sounds like you know the answer but are not very happy with it. Not just random opinions, but correlation here, my side and their side. Debate try to appeal to the data, but it's not very reliable on either side. Theory more powerful when you understand it but listeners don't understand it and other theories exist. What comes out depends on what goes in. Worse: confirms a view that is repugnant, public's view of economists, lay 'em end to end and they don't reach a conclusion. Grading final exams [taping Dec. 17, 2008]; get impression that experts know a lot more than amateurs; answers so confused. Do we as economists know things that non-economists don't? Can we identify some things we agree on? Think we have that. Students before taking class versus after taking the class. Well, you know, the whole economy is just a house of cards, just built on debt. Strange over-reaction to the current situation. Problem is imprudent debt, totally guaranteed debt. Late-night TV, no such thing as risk-free. Two things: 1. Things we understand aren't very useful, don't apply to very much. Like astronomy, pretty pictures but what are you going to do with it? Sometimes applications. 2. Economics has applications but we like to talk about the areas where we disagree. Not giving credit for that. Glass is half-empty but it looks half-full, 7/8 full. Be thankful that we know some things and get listened to, in paper and in government because we know some things, and good when we argue because it shows the border of what we know. People should just listen to us when we don't argue. 3. Third theory: We know a lot about a lot of things, but the process by which these opinions come to public attention is biased by the incentives of that process. Anti-trust trial, both sides could hire lawyers to give compelling arguments even when every economist would agree side A is right and side B is wrong. Expert testimony. Translation from what we know to what matters. Distorting incentives. When something is at stake, can buy opinion, donate money to universities or foundations, or just by staking out a position raise probability of getting a job somewhere in particular, etc. Intensity and animosity in the public form of these debates versus private conversations. People accept physicists except when it's about something the public cares about, like global warming. String theory, get full page coverage. Global warming: evidence, complexity, skepticism perhaps because of money at stake. Topics interesting and matter. If it matters, level of deference goes down unless we are saying what outsiders want to hear.
Roberts (and Hanson) on Truth and Economics | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty