cccd9fdb_brary_of_Economics_and_Liberty__ast_Highlights_HIDE_HIGHLIGHTS
[Time] 22:42
Internal deliberation. Business or political applications. Survey CIA employees about Iraq's possessing weapons of mass destruction may result in less confidence than public statements. Internal deliberation process crucial. Roosevelt, Bush. Bush considered using prediction markets. Robin Hanson's proposal distorted. Deliberation is a bit oversold. In private sector and government it seems to be preferred way to make decisions. But after deliberation people sometimes end up taking more extreme positions of what they originally thought. Colorado example on affirmative action. Affects risk-taking behavior. Group polarization can lead to error. Additional problem: If people suffer from some sort of confusion, worse than garbage-in/garbage-out. Errors are amplified by deliberation. Availability heuristic. Also, groups often emphasize shared information at the expense of critical uniquely-held information. Bay of Pigs invasion. People sometimes keep their mouths shut in group situations. What experimental evidence is there about these results? In real world, do organizations relying on deliberation take measures to reduce these negative effects? Ex-post revelations may not tell us about the general run. Federal judicial behavior example. Private sector boards may be contentious and take steps to avoid the polarization phenomenon or avoiding the problem when unique information doesn't get out. Inculcation of norms of disagreement. Eureka problem, crossword puzzles. Goal should be to figure out how to make deliberation process better. Reagan administration successful in this, but how?
Sunstein on Infotopia, Information and Decision-Making | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty