108d4836_brary_of_Economics_and_Liberty__ast_Highlights_HIDE_HIGHLIGHTS
[Time] 38:59
Continuing on third theory: maybe we could do better, prediction markets--Hanson's own bias! If you are part of this process, if you are one of these people, get money from foundations for points of view, then your perception that your conclusions are well-justified by your data; look at others as biased. If you think people all over academia are allowing themselves to be tempted, you have to ask yourself: Why do I think I'm different? Like to think we'd threaten our relationships with our colleagues or jobs. Niche market. Can't do it more than once. Unless I have some evidence to think I'm more honest, more likely to have rejected these temptations, I'm likely to be affected, too. We humans leak our insincerity. Most of us can't lie very well. If we are in an environment that rewards us for believing something, we have to say we are not as careful and honest as I would have liked. I'm human. Challenge podcast interviewees: Yeah, you are probably right. They back off. You are not going to defend it, versus other times, listeners get upset when interviewees are not hammered. Philosophical note: influenced in college by philosophy profession, Richard Smyth, pragmatism. Charles Peirce. Your grandmother is right: is it okay to do xyz, but why? no answer, it's just wrong; Belief in reason, Descartes. Examine all my beliefs. Benjamin Franklin: "When fortresses and virgins get to talking, the end is in sight." Will eventually come up with a reason ex post, but that reason is not so reliable despite the hubris. Pragmatists argue there is wisdom in the community, not mere superstitions. Hayekian.
Roberts (and Hanson) on Truth and Economics | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty