content: """Calibration of predicted probabilities."""
  
  # Author: Alexandre Gramfort <alexandre.gramfort@telecom-paristech.fr>
  #         Balazs Kegl <balazs.kegl@gmail.com>
  #         Jan Hendrik Metzen <jhm@informatik.uni-bremen.de>
  #         Mathieu Blondel <mathieu@mblondel.org>
  #
  # License: BSD 3 clause
  
  from __future__ import division
  import inspect
  import warnings
  
  from math import log
  import numpy as np
  
  from scipy.optimize import fmin_bfgs
  
  from .base import BaseEstimator, ClassifierMixin, RegressorMixin, clone
  from .preprocessing import LabelBinarizer
  from .utils import check_X_y, check_array, indexable, column_or_1d
  from .utils.validation import check_is_fitted
  from .isotonic import IsotonicRegression
  from .svm import LinearSVC
  from .cross_validation import check_cv
  from .metrics.classification import _check_binary_probabilistic_predictions
  
  
  class CalibratedClassifierCV(BaseEstimator, ClassifierMixin):
      """Probability calibration with isotonic regression or sigmoid.
  
      With this class, the base_estimator is fit on the train set of the
      cross-validation generator and the test set is used for calibration.
      The probabilities for each of the folds are then averaged
      for prediction. In case that cv="prefit" is passed to __init__,
      it is it is assumed that base_estimator has been
      fitted already and all data is used for calibration. Note that
      data for fitting the classifier and for calibrating it must be disjpint.
  
      Read more in the :ref:`User Guide <calibration>`.
  
      Parameters
      ----------
      base_estimator : instance BaseEstimator
          The classifier whose output decision function needs to be calibrated
          to offer more accurate predict_proba outputs. If cv=prefit, the
          classifier must have been fit already on data.
  
      method : 'sigmoid' | 'isotonic'
          The method to use for calibration. Can be 'sigmoid' which
          corresponds to Platt's method or 'isotonic' which is a
          non-parameteric approach. It is not advised to use isotonic calibration
          with too few calibration samples (<<1000) since it tends to overfit.
          Use sigmoids (Platt's calibration) in this case.
  
      cv : integer or cross-validation generator or "prefit", optional
          If an integer is passed, it is the number of folds (default 3).
          Specific cross-validation objects can be passed, see
          sklearn.cross_validation module for the list of possible objects.
          If "prefit" is passed, it is assumed that base_estimator has been
          fitted already and all data is used for calibration.
  
      Attributes
      ----------
      classes_ : array, shape (n_classes)
          The class labels.
  
      calibrated_classifiers_: list (len() equal to cv or 1 if cv == "prefit")
          The list of calibrated classifiers, one for each crossvalidation fold,
          which has been fitted on all but the validation fold and calibrated
          on the validation fold.
  
      References
      ----------
      .. [1] Obtaining calibrated probability estimates from decision trees
             and naive Bayesian classifiers, B. Zadrozny & C. Elkan, ICML 2001
  
      .. [2] Transforming Classifier Scores into Accurate Multiclass
             Probability Estimates, B. Zadrozny & C. Elkan, (KDD 2002)
  
      .. [3] Probabilistic Outputs for Support Vector Machines and Comparisons to
             Regularized Likelihood Methods, J. Platt, (1999)
  
      .. [4] Predicting Good Probabilities with Supervised Learning,
             A. Niculescu-Mizil & R. Caruana, ICML 2005
      """
      def __init__(self, base_estimator=None, method='sigmoid', cv=3):
          self.base_estimator = base_estimator
          self.method = method
          self.cv = cv
  
      def fit(self, X, y, sample_weight=None):
          """Fit the calibrated model
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples, n_features)
              Training data.
  
          y : array-like, shape (n_samples,)
              Target values.
  
          sample_weight : array-like, shape = [n_samples] or None
              Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
  
          Returns
          -------
          self : object
              Returns an instance of self.
          """
          X, y = check_X_y(X, y, accept_sparse=['csc', 'csr', 'coo'],
                           force_all_finite=False)
          X, y = indexable(X, y)
          lb = LabelBinarizer().fit(y)
          self.classes_ = lb.classes_
  
          # Check that we each cross-validation fold can have at least one
          # example per class
          n_folds = self.cv if isinstance(self.cv, int) \
              else self.cv.n_folds if hasattr(self.cv, "n_folds") else None
          if n_folds and \
             np.any([np.sum(y == class_) < n_folds for class_ in self.classes_]):
              raise ValueError("Requesting %d-fold cross-validation but provided"
                               " less than %d examples for at least one class."
                               % (n_folds, n_folds))
  
          self.calibrated_classifiers_ = []
          if self.base_estimator is None:
              # we want all classifiers that don't expose a random_state
              # to be deterministic (and we don't want to expose this one).
              base_estimator = LinearSVC(random_state=0)
          else:
              base_estimator = self.base_estimator
  
          if self.cv == "prefit":
              calibrated_classifier = _CalibratedClassifier(
                  base_estimator, method=self.method)
              if sample_weight is not None:
                  calibrated_classifier.fit(X, y, sample_weight)
              else:
                  calibrated_classifier.fit(X, y)
              self.calibrated_classifiers_.append(calibrated_classifier)
          else:
              cv = check_cv(self.cv, X, y, classifier=True)
              arg_names = inspect.getargspec(base_estimator.fit)[0]
              estimator_name = type(base_estimator).__name__
              if (sample_weight is not None
                      and "sample_weight" not in arg_names):
                  warnings.warn("%s does not support sample_weight. Samples"
                                " weights are only used for the calibration"
                                " itself." % estimator_name)
                  base_estimator_sample_weight = None
              else:
                  base_estimator_sample_weight = sample_weight
              for train, test in cv:
                  this_estimator = clone(base_estimator)
                  if base_estimator_sample_weight is not None:
                      this_estimator.fit(
                          X[train], y[train],
                          sample_weight=base_estimator_sample_weight[train])
                  else:
                      this_estimator.fit(X[train], y[train])
  
                  calibrated_classifier = _CalibratedClassifier(
                      this_estimator, method=self.method)
                  if sample_weight is not None:
                      calibrated_classifier.fit(X[test], y[test],
                                                sample_weight[test])
                  else:
                      calibrated_classifier.fit(X[test], y[test])
                  self.calibrated_classifiers_.append(calibrated_classifier)
  
          return self
  
      def predict_proba(self, X):
          """Posterior probabilities of classification
  
          This function returns posterior probabilities of classification
          according to each class on an array of test vectors X.
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples, n_features)
              The samples.
  
          Returns
          -------
          C : array, shape (n_samples, n_classes)
              The predicted probas.
          """
          check_is_fitted(self, ["classes_", "calibrated_classifiers_"])
          X = check_array(X, accept_sparse=['csc', 'csr', 'coo'],
                          force_all_finite=False)
          # Compute the arithmetic mean of the predictions of the calibrated
          # classfiers
          mean_proba = np.zeros((X.shape[0], len(self.classes_)))
          for calibrated_classifier in self.calibrated_classifiers_:
              proba = calibrated_classifier.predict_proba(X)
              mean_proba += proba
  
          mean_proba /= len(self.calibrated_classifiers_)
  
          return mean_proba
  
      def predict(self, X):
          """Predict the target of new samples. Can be different from the
          prediction of the uncalibrated classifier.
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples, n_features)
              The samples.
  
          Returns
          -------
          C : array, shape (n_samples,)
              The predicted class.
          """
          check_is_fitted(self, ["classes_", "calibrated_classifiers_"])
          return self.classes_[np.argmax(self.predict_proba(X), axis=1)]
  
  
  class _CalibratedClassifier(object):
      """Probability calibration with isotonic regression or sigmoid.
  
      It assumes that base_estimator has already been fit, and trains the
      calibration on the input set of the fit function. Note that this class
      should not be used as an estimator directly. Use CalibratedClassifierCV
      with cv="prefit" instead.
  
      Parameters
      ----------
      base_estimator : instance BaseEstimator
          The classifier whose output decision function needs to be calibrated
          to offer more accurate predict_proba outputs. No default value since
          it has to be an already fitted estimator.
  
      method : 'sigmoid' | 'isotonic'
          The method to use for calibration. Can be 'sigmoid' which
          corresponds to Platt's method or 'isotonic' which is a
          non-parameteric approach based on isotonic regression.
  
      References
      ----------
      .. [1] Obtaining calibrated probability estimates from decision trees
             and naive Bayesian classifiers, B. Zadrozny & C. Elkan, ICML 2001
  
      .. [2] Transforming Classifier Scores into Accurate Multiclass
             Probability Estimates, B. Zadrozny & C. Elkan, (KDD 2002)
  
      .. [3] Probabilistic Outputs for Support Vector Machines and Comparisons to
             Regularized Likelihood Methods, J. Platt, (1999)
  
      .. [4] Predicting Good Probabilities with Supervised Learning,
             A. Niculescu-Mizil & R. Caruana, ICML 2005
      """
      def __init__(self, base_estimator, method='sigmoid'):
          self.base_estimator = base_estimator
          self.method = method
  
      def _preproc(self, X):
          n_classes = len(self.classes_)
          if hasattr(self.base_estimator, "decision_function"):
              df = self.base_estimator.decision_function(X)
              if df.ndim == 1:
                  df = df[:, np.newaxis]
          elif hasattr(self.base_estimator, "predict_proba"):
              df = self.base_estimator.predict_proba(X)
              if n_classes == 2:
                  df = df[:, 1:]
          else:
              raise RuntimeError('classifier has no decision_function or '
                                 'predict_proba method.')
  
          idx_pos_class = np.arange(df.shape[1])
  
          return df, idx_pos_class
  
      def fit(self, X, y, sample_weight=None):
          """Calibrate the fitted model
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples, n_features)
              Training data.
  
          y : array-like, shape (n_samples,)
              Target values.
  
          sample_weight : array-like, shape = [n_samples] or None
              Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
  
          Returns
          -------
          self : object
              Returns an instance of self.
          """
          lb = LabelBinarizer()
          Y = lb.fit_transform(y)
          self.classes_ = lb.classes_
  
          df, idx_pos_class = self._preproc(X)
          self.calibrators_ = []
  
          for k, this_df in zip(idx_pos_class, df.T):
              if self.method == 'isotonic':
                  calibrator = IsotonicRegression(out_of_bounds='clip')
              elif self.method == 'sigmoid':
                  calibrator = _SigmoidCalibration()
              else:
                  raise ValueError('method should be "sigmoid" or '
                                   '"isotonic". Got %s.' % self.method)
              calibrator.fit(this_df, Y[:, k], sample_weight)
              self.calibrators_.append(calibrator)
  
          return self
  
      def predict_proba(self, X):
          """Posterior probabilities of classification
  
          This function returns posterior probabilities of classification
          according to each class on an array of test vectors X.
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples, n_features)
              The samples.
  
          Returns
          -------
          C : array, shape (n_samples, n_classes)
              The predicted probas. Can be exact zeros.
          """
          n_classes = len(self.classes_)
          proba = np.zeros((X.shape[0], n_classes))
  
          df, idx_pos_class = self._preproc(X)
  
          for k, this_df, calibrator in \
                  zip(idx_pos_class, df.T, self.calibrators_):
              if n_classes == 2:
                  k += 1
              proba[:, k] = calibrator.predict(this_df)
  
          # Normalize the probabilities
          if n_classes == 2:
              proba[:, 0] = 1. - proba[:, 1]
          else:
              proba /= np.sum(proba, axis=1)[:, np.newaxis]
  
          # XXX : for some reason all probas can be 0
          proba[np.isnan(proba)] = 1. / n_classes
  
          # Deal with cases where the predicted probability minimally exceeds 1.0
          proba[(1.0 < proba) & (proba <= 1.0 + 1e-5)] = 1.0
  
          return proba
  
  
  def _sigmoid_calibration(df, y, sample_weight=None):
      """Probability Calibration with sigmoid method (Platt 2000)
  
      Parameters
      ----------
      df : ndarray, shape (n_samples,)
          The decision function or predict proba for the samples.
  
      y : ndarray, shape (n_samples,)
          The targets.
  
      sample_weight : array-like, shape = [n_samples] or None
          Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
  
      Returns
      -------
      a : float
          The slope.
  
      b : float
          The intercept.
  
      References
      ----------
      Platt, "Probabilistic Outputs for Support Vector Machines"
      """
      df = column_or_1d(df)
      y = column_or_1d(y)
  
      F = df  # F follows Platt's notations
      tiny = np.finfo(np.float).tiny  # to avoid division by 0 warning
  
      # Bayesian priors (see Platt end of section 2.2)
      prior0 = float(np.sum(y <= 0))
      prior1 = y.shape[0] - prior0
      T = np.zeros(y.shape)
      T[y > 0] = (prior1 + 1.) / (prior1 + 2.)
      T[y <= 0] = 1. / (prior0 + 2.)
      T1 = 1. - T
  
      def objective(AB):
          # From Platt (beginning of Section 2.2)
          E = np.exp(AB[0] * F + AB[1])
          P = 1. / (1. + E)
          l = -(T * np.log(P + tiny) + T1 * np.log(1. - P + tiny))
          if sample_weight is not None:
              return (sample_weight * l).sum()
          else:
              return l.sum()
  
      def grad(AB):
          # gradient of the objective function
          E = np.exp(AB[0] * F + AB[1])
          P = 1. / (1. + E)
          TEP_minus_T1P = P * (T * E - T1)
          if sample_weight is not None:
              TEP_minus_T1P *= sample_weight
          dA = np.dot(TEP_minus_T1P, F)
          dB = np.sum(TEP_minus_T1P)
          return np.array([dA, dB])
  
      AB0 = np.array([0., log((prior0 + 1.) / (prior1 + 1.))])
      AB_ = fmin_bfgs(objective, AB0, fprime=grad, disp=False)
      return AB_[0], AB_[1]
  
  
  class _SigmoidCalibration(BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin):
      """Sigmoid regression model.
  
      Attributes
      ----------
      a_ : float
          The slope.
  
      b_ : float
          The intercept.
      """
      def fit(self, X, y, sample_weight=None):
          """Fit the model using X, y as training data.
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          X : array-like, shape (n_samples,)
              Training data.
  
          y : array-like, shape (n_samples,)
              Training target.
  
          sample_weight : array-like, shape = [n_samples] or None
              Sample weights. If None, then samples are equally weighted.
  
          Returns
          -------
          self : object
              Returns an instance of self.
          """
          X = column_or_1d(X)
          y = column_or_1d(y)
          X, y = indexable(X, y)
  
          self.a_, self.b_ = _sigmoid_calibration(X, y, sample_weight)
          return self
  
      def predict(self, T):
          """Predict new data by linear interpolation.
  
          Parameters
          ----------
          T : array-like, shape (n_samples,)
              Data to predict from.
  
          Returns
          -------
          T_ : array, shape (n_samples,)
              The predicted data.
          """
          T = column_or_1d(T)
          return 1. / (1. + np.exp(self.a_ * T + self.b_))
  
  
  def calibration_curve(y_true, y_prob, normalize=False, n_bins=5):
      """Compute true and predicted probabilities for a calibration curve.
  
      Read more in the :ref:`User Guide <calibration>`.
  
      Parameters
      ----------
      y_true : array, shape (n_samples,)
          True targets.
  
      y_prob : array, shape (n_samples,)
          Probabilities of the positive class.
  
      normalize : bool, optional, default=False
          Whether y_prob needs to be normalized into the bin [0, 1], i.e. is not
          a proper probability. If True, the smallest value in y_prob is mapped
          onto 0 and the largest one onto 1.
  
      n_bins : int
          Number of bins. A bigger number requires more data.
  
      Returns
      -------
      prob_true : array, shape (n_bins,)
          The true probability in each bin (fraction of positives).
  
      prob_pred : array, shape (n_bins,)
          The mean predicted probability in each bin.
  
      References
      ----------
      Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil and Rich Caruana (2005) Predicting Good
      Probabilities With Supervised Learning, in Proceedings of the 22nd
      International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML).
      See section 4 (Qualitative Analysis of Predictions).
      """
      y_true = column_or_1d(y_true)
      y_prob = column_or_1d(y_prob)
  
      if normalize:  # Normalize predicted values into interval [0, 1]
          y_prob = (y_prob - y_prob.min()) / (y_prob.max() - y_prob.min())
      elif y_prob.min() < 0 or y_prob.max() > 1:
          raise ValueError("y_prob has values outside [0, 1] and normalize is "
                           "set to False.")
  
      y_true = _check_binary_probabilistic_predictions(y_true, y_prob)
  
      bins = np.linspace(0., 1. + 1e-8, n_bins + 1)
      binids = np.digitize(y_prob, bins) - 1
  
      bin_sums = np.bincount(binids, weights=y_prob, minlength=len(bins))
      bin_true = np.bincount(binids, weights=y_true, minlength=len(bins))
      bin_total = np.bincount(binids, minlength=len(bins))
  
      nonzero = bin_total != 0
      prob_true = (bin_true[nonzero] / bin_total[nonzero])
      prob_pred = (bin_sums[nonzero] / bin_total[nonzero])
  
      return prob_true, prob_pred
  