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I mean, AI can be very creative.
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We know that right now.
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It s gonna be very creative.
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There s this myth that it s not creative.
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Well, it s very creative, but it s creative in a different way, and we re gonna use that creativity.
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There ll be designers and other people who will use our creativity of AI, but it s not gonna be creative in the way humans are creative.
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Hey everybody, welcome to The Art of Charm.
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I m your host, Jordan Harbinger.
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Today I m talking with Kevin Kelly, founding editor of Wired Magazine and author of The Inevitable, understanding the 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
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You should listen to this if you re interested in knowing what s driving technology and what our future will look like.
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Why artificial intelligence, or AI, is the biggest thing since electricity.
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Yes, electricity.
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And the ways humanity, this means you and I, will interact with technology, AI, and how this will change our lives in ways we can scarcely imagine right now, both good and bad.
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And last but not least, how technology will actually make us
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better humans.
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So enjoy this one with Kevin Kelly.
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And by the way, if you re new to the show, we d love to send you some of our top episodes and the AOC toolbox where we discuss topics like body language, nonverbal communication, persuasion, networking, negotiation, mentorship, everything else we teach here at the Art of Charm.
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If you re in the United States, you can text charmed, that s C-H-A-R-M-E-D to 33444.
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Everywhere else, just go to theartofcharm.com.
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Also, at theartofcharm.com slash podcast, you can find the full show notes for this and all previous episodes.
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All right, here s Kevin Kelly.
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First of all, the book I read, which I really enjoyed, it s cool to look at predictions for things because me and my girlfriend who you just met,
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We like to say, wait, in the future, this is probably gonna be different, and here s how it s gonna be different.
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And it s always really simple stuff, and seldom do we think, and then it s gonna be like this, and then it s gonna be like that.
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We kind of predicted, for example, that self-driving cars will obviously be ubiquitous in the future, but the kind of late 21st century gun nuts, if you will, will be the people who say,
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I have a right to drive my car, even though the accident rate is so much higher and they ll have arguments like, well, it s safer because humans don t make the same mistakes that this AI does when it comes to deciding how many people to run into at the same time.
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Would you say that you have a science of predicting?
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No, first of all, most of what s going to happen in the specifics, like a product or a company, is totally inherently unpredictable.
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Sure.
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There s only another set of larger scale, larger level forms that are in any way inevitable, and those have to do with the fact that any technology, including digital stuff, runs on physical
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apparatus and the physics of this sort of governs these reoccurring patterns and my job is sort of to look for these reoccurring patterns and I look for the ways technology wants to be used in the sense of it s not being supervised so it s like how criminals and outlaws use it, how kids use it, how the street uses it and that gives you a little bit more hint of its kind of natural tendencies.
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into me when you said criminals and outlaws.
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I appreciate that.
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That s good for the brand.
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The street.
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Morons use it this way.
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And it s these unsupervised ways that reveal sort of the underlying tendency or leaning that technologies have.
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And they all have leanings.
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They re biased in certain directions.
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So what I m looking for is the biases in technologies.
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And the biases, to give you an example, it s like copying.
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And so, the thing about the internet, it s the world s largest copy machine.
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It wants to copy everything.
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If it can be copied and it touches the internet, it will be copied.
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And so, the bias is to copy.
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Your computer is copying just in a day-to-day basis.
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When it goes across the internet, it s being copied thousands of times.
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That s just how the thing is set up.
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And so companies, like music companies, and others, who wanna resist that trend, they re going against the grain, because the bias is to copy.
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And therefore, I say, this tendency for copy is inevitable, and if you want to work with the grain, do something, assuming that things will be copied, which is what we now call viral videos.
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Viral videos, yeah, viral anything.
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Viral anything.
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It s like, okay, we re gonna take advantage of the fact that there s this bias.
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And so, if you re working against it,
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you re gonna be frustrated, and you re gonna just postpone things.
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And so, there are other biases, and my job was sort of to say, what are some of these other biases in digital technology?
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And this has to be really tricky, because if you look at, I m a former finance guy, and that talk about a profession that pretends to be able to predict something that they can t predict, that s it.
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What s different about the mental models that you use versus, say, someone who is purely speculating on securities or trends in the market?
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Yeah.
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Well, first of all, again, I go back to the point is that you can t predict the specific, the particulars.
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Those things are much more of the immediate ups and downs that day traders are trying to predict.
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And that is inherently stochastic.
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It s inherently just random.
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And so if you re trying to make money that way, you have to have a much bigger view, much bigger framework than just trying to predict whether things are gonna go up and down.
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And so I don t do that.
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I think it s not even possible.
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And we know actually from the studies of finances that it s very hard to beat the market as a whole.
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pretty much impossible.
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For long term, more than just a few quarters or years or decades.
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But for the long term, everything kind of evens out.
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And so I m interested in those long term trends.
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And so I m not trying to tell you whether the iPhone 7 is going to succeed, or whether you should have an Apple Watch, or whether is Google going to be the dominant player in two years.
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Those, I think, really are inherently unpredictable.
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Sure, this completely makes sense, and I do think, though, over my life, and I m 36, so I assume you re a little bit older than that, I don t actually know, but when I was younger, I d seen things like Yahoo come out, or even before that, I think I was using Gopher or something to find things on the internet, I don t even think that was a search engine, I think it was just a menu that some college kids had whipped up, and I told my dad about it, and I said, look, you can search for things on the internet, and I think it was AltaVista or Yahoo, or one of those early search engines.
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And I said, dad, you ve got to look at this.
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You ve got to check this out.
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And he said, oh, that s kind of neat.
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You can find information.
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And I said, can we buy stock in this or something?
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Because my dad bought investments in stocks and Ford and things like that.
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And he said, well, I don t know.
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I ll have to look.
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And I kept bugging him.
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And I kept bugging him.
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And he found some technology companies that were working with this stuff.
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And I said, let s buy stock in this, because then maybe we can sell it when I go to college.
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And he said, Jordan,
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everybody s just going to the library.
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There are libraries everywhere.
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Not many people are gonna use this.
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I know you think it s cool, but not many people are gonna use this.
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People don t even know how to do it.
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I thought, yeah, maybe you re right, but I feel like they re onto something with this, this whole search the internet thing.
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And I constantly joke with him about this, because he remembers it too.
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It was Yahoo, I think.
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And he remembers it, too, because I told him later, I said, you know, Tesla, they re going to redo batteries and they re doing electric cars.
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And he went, well, I don t know.
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And I said, remember the Yahoo thing?
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And he went and he bought a bunch of shares of Tesla.
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And it went up and he called me.
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He goes, Merry Christmas.
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I think you just made like 80 grand.
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And I was like, I told you.
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Imagine what we d be driving if you d bought that Yahoo stock.
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We d be having this conversation on your jet.
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It s true.
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Well, yeah, I mean, looking back, it s always hindsight is that way.
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But I ve been wrong about many, many things, including, like, say, virtual reality, which I had the privilege to try out in 1989 and earlier.
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In fact, I organized the first virtual reality public access we call a jamboree.
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It was called the Cyberthon.
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For 24 hours, you could buy a ticket and try all the VR that existed in 1989.
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What existed in 1989 in the VR space?
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The whole thing, the goggles, the glove, social, more than one person in it was pretty good.
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But I never thought it was gonna happen in five years.
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The problem was it was equivalent of $1 million today to set it up.
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It was just way too expensive.
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The head tracking, all that technology, hundreds of thousands of dollars.
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Today, it s a $3 chip in your phone.
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in your phone, sure.
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Which it does accelerometer and all that kind of stuff.
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So that s why we have it now.
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That s why we have VR now, is they took all these technologies which are now chips in your phone and put them into the headset and now we can have commodity consumer oriented VR.
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But I thought it was gonna take only five years in 89.
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So I was totally wrong in that sense.
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But I mean, if you re gonna be wrong on VR, getting the time frame wrong, a very forgivable kind of thing, especially looking at where VR is now.
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I ve got some Art of Charm program graduates that are really in the VR space, and they said something interesting, which is, oh, we re not experts in VR, because no one is.
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And I thought that was a really cool comment, because usually people can t wait to brand themselves as experts in something.
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And they said, look, nobody even knows what this stuff is gonna do, it s just all of us enthusiasts know that something s gonna happen.
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And it reminded me of when I thought,
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These guys with the search thing are onto something.
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They know it s there, they re just trying to put the pieces together until something takes shape.
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We know how VR works on the brain.
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The curious thing, it s kind of recursive, is that the main tool for understanding and how we can get better VR is VR itself.
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VR is kind of like the biggest brain tool that we have.
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And we re gonna discover things about ourselves through virtual reality.
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By using it and making it better.
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And the thing that I like to emphasize about VR, the reason why I think it s so important, is that what you get inside of VR is an experience.
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When you take it off and you come back out and you recollect what happened, you don t remember seeing things.
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You remember feeling them, experiencing them.
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And the real typical demo for VR for first timers is you put the goggles on and then they show you re in a room and then they drop off half of the room right in front of you and you re now standing on a ledge that goes a mile down.
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And your brain knows that you re just standing in the room, but your body
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your other kind of lower brain is in panic and your legs are shaking and you re backing up thinking, I m gonna die.
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Even though your brain, you keep saying, I m just in a room, I m just in a room.
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What it is is the VR is working on a different part of your brain than the conscious visual side.
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Sounds a little bit like LSD or mushrooms from what I ve read.
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Right, right, right, exactly.
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And so it s an experience, and so what you re getting is that when you have a virtual character there, this avatar, your avatar right now today may not be exactly 100% photorealistic like you, but it s giving you eye contact, it s your voice, and it has all your body language, and all the little mannerisms, and the micro-expressions on your face.
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And so what you feel from that is that you are there.
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Even though I know you couldn t possibly be sitting in this chair,
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I feel as if you are really there.
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I feel as if this virtual thing is there.
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I feel it.
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And that feeling is transferring the internet of information to the internet of experiences.
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And that s what we re going to get with VR, is that we re going to have the currency as experiences,
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and the internet will become this internet of experiences.
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And experiences are, by the way, one of the few things that we can t manufacture in a commodity way, make it cheaper and cheaper.
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And so experiences are things that we re gonna be paying more and more for.
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We re gonna move our economy to an experience economy, and this is where the jobs will be.
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If you want something that s gonna be manufactured, you give it to the robots, it s a commodity, but experiences are very, very human.
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That s super interesting, and I can see that making a lot of sense, especially once we get the data, the kind of uploading your brain, or at least getting enough data from you.
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If you use VR for 300 hours, how much does that computer, that AI at that point, know about what I would do if I m not even... Everything.
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And this is, by the way, my prediction.
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quote me on this, is that I think the biggest companies in 20 years are going to be VR companies because they have this data about every aspect of your life, what you re afraid of, what you re interested in, what you find fascinating just from looking at your eyes and your dilation.
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I mean, they ll know you so, so well and they re going to gather petabytes
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of information about you individually.
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And that s gonna be the value.
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They re not gonna make money selling you goggles.
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It s the fact that you are gonna be in these worlds capturing everything about these social dynamics in minute detail, in a way we can t do in real life.
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And they re gonna have virtual economies as well, where you re buying and selling all this virtual stuff.
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And so these VR are gonna be the biggest companies in the world.
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They re gonna be VR companies.
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I can see that.
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I can definitely see that.
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It s fascinating, right, because people freak out about, wow, Facebook knows my birthday and it knows where I was because I took a vacation, knows where those pictures were.
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Wait till Facebook knows what types of foods accelerate your heart rate, make you happier, release dopamine in your brain, or the VR company knows what type of people you find attractive at a visceral level versus, I mean, they re gonna be able to make things for you in real time that are exactly what you want to eat or exactly what you want to see.
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So that s where the money is.
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It s not in selling you gear.
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Right, the gear, at some point, the gear could be next to free, because it could be a loss leader just to get you in there.
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Yeah, it s like the Kindle.
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Yeah, unbelievable.
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I was thinking about this, and this is more augmented reality.
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My friend earlier, who you were speaking with before the show, was selling a house, and he said, you know, staging is, this thing I hadn t thought about, the cost of staging a house, which is where they put all the fake furniture in it, it s like $6,000 to $8,000, depending on how nice you want it to look and how big your house is,
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And I said, well, we re talking to Kevin Kelly.
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You should tell him you could do even the phone VR.
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And you could have that be completely free because they come in and they map your house.
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And the way they make money is every time new people walk in your house, it s like they re looking at the corner of a room and it says $350 crate and barrel armoire.
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And then it s like posturepedic mattress ranges from $1,000 to $2,000.
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And it s like, if you want that and you want it to go right there,
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You can go, dink, dink, and then it ll buy it with your credit card, and they ll come and move it in and set it up just like you saw.
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One of the first VR experiences I had in the second go-around was doing a walkthrough of this Malibu mansion from Fort Mason, San Francisco.
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And I was walking through, and it was an incredibly visceral, authentic experience of walking through a house that was for sale.
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What does your brain do when things aren t photorealistic?
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Does it just kind of go into the same mode it does when you re playing a video game?
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The bar kind of recalibrates to, all right, this is all the input I m taking in.
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Yeah, so photorealism is, as we know, not necessarily 100% needed, and you only have to watch a Pixar movie or something to be swept up in someone s personality and deciding that s real.
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But I have to also say that the photo realism is coming along very well.
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I saw a demo of what they call volumetric capture, which is the technical term for doing a complete 3D capture of somebody, like you right now.
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Right, like where it makes the grid on me.
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Well, no, 3D meaning that I can look at you from any angle, up or down, or back or side, but it s also you re live.
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It s not just a static photo.
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Oh, wow.
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You re living, and I can see every hair in your head move and your eyelashes move.
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I can see the fabric on this in 3D, and I can walk around it.
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That s where we are right now in the lab.
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Wow.
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It s as good as seeing there, and the belief, the feeling, the experience is total, so much that I felt
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uncomfortable getting too close to that.
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Because you felt that you had psychological space.
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Yeah, the psychological space.
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Even though I could walk through them, it was like, I don t want to get that close.
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Right.
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It was a woman, it was a beautiful woman.
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It was like, you can see the implications of that.
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Yeah, sure.
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Exactly.
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And so it was like, I can even step back here.
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You re a gentleman, what can I say?
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Exactly, you re right.
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For somebody I don t know, sure.
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Yeah, sure, plow right through.
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And so I think that avatars could do more than we think, cartoon versions.
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I think we re gonna be very close to having that resolution of saying this is good enough.
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And it won t matter at a certain point.
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Especially if you spend 16 waking hours in a VR and then you take it off for a few minutes to reset your eyes or get some food, if you even need to do that in 50 to 100 years.
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and it won t matter.
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SPEAKER_00
That ll be the low resolution.
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They ll have a slang term for real life that will be sort of pejorative, right?
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Yeah, I think what happens when you take it off is that you realize how amazing
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reality is every time.
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I think that you ll always be able to tell the difference between a projection and the real thing, always, if you want to.
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Most of the time you don t care, but if you want to, you ll be able to care.
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And when you take it off, you just realize there s just so much else going on.
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And it s not just going to be the visuals, it s the smells.
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It s the wind, it s the quality of the experience that we have in real life that s just really going to be hard to beat.
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So you ll appreciate reality simply that much more real than the thing you ve already experienced.
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It s like, oh, there s all kinds of things going on here.
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That s been the experience of people who ve spent time in it.
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SPEAKER_00
I could see that, because we are, at some level, well, at every level, evolved to realize that this is what s real, and something, no matter how amazingly programmed it is, up to a point, will still seem, at some level, not quite as real as what our brains think is real.
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SPEAKER_00
When you say that, in order to predict, we look where people put their time and energy without compensation, Wikipedia, Instagram, whatever, we re curating this podcast, for example, although now I m compensated for it, I wasn t before,
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SPEAKER_00
How do you know what s going to grow?
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SPEAKER_00
And it looks like you re aiming towards what people are paying attention to.
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SPEAKER_00
And how do you measure those trends?
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How are you looking at what humans are paying attention to when it s not already happening?
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SPEAKER_00
I mean, we know Instagram and Facebook are catching on because we re on them all the time.
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SPEAKER_00
What do you look for in terms of those types of trends?
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SPEAKER_00
You mentioned white space.
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Yeah, white space is this idea that came from, I think, people studying the pattern of science is the white space is sort of the space in between things where there s nothing and there should be something.
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And we can kind of explore that pretty easily by the idea of AI right now.
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So it s like white space would be if you take, you know, AI here and fashion,
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There s gotta be something between AI and fashion.
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AI, fashion, I don t know what it is.
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That s a white space right now.
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That s something that s gonna be filled in with businesses, opportunities, expertise at some point in the future.
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But right now it s empty, so it s this idea
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There are these empty spaces where there should be something, but there isn t.
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And you d mentioned AI, especially in the book, as the next 10,000 startups are gonna be adding AI to literally just about anything else.
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SPEAKER_03
And we re gonna look back, when I m old and gray, saying, man, if I d only known about adding AI to drapes, I would be a billionaire.
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SPEAKER_00
Exactly.
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SPEAKER_00
Or, you know, the recent one is, let s take something like really old-fashioned, boring, dumb taxis.
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We ll add AI.
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SPEAKER_03
Sure.
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SPEAKER_03
Uber.
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There you go.
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SPEAKER_03
I heard that s on the upswing, that company.
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SPEAKER_00
Yeah, right.
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SPEAKER_00
So, but that gives you a sense of what we can do with that, and I think there s going to be, you know, in food, furniture, toys, in a certain sense, the more unobvious and the more obscure the thing is, I think the more powerful the transformation will be.
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SPEAKER_03
Let s talk about what AI kind of really is, because I think a lot of folks, and especially in the last few years, before I really started thinking about AI,
2
SPEAKER_03
What that meant was something that talks.
2
SPEAKER_03
That was pretty much it.
2
SPEAKER_03
It wasn t what AI really is, which is something that almost thinks.
2
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, so I like to use the word artificial smartness because we have so much intellectual baggage with intelligence.
2
SPEAKER_00
We think we know what it is.
2
SPEAKER_00
It s the robot, it s how, whatever it is.
2
SPEAKER_00
There are many different ways to be smart, and there are many different kinds of smartness, and animal intelligence is another good example.
2
SPEAKER_00
The thing to keep in mind is that this artificial smartness is not gonna think like humans primarily.
2
SPEAKER_03
How will it be different?
2
SPEAKER_03
How can we even conceive of it being different if we have to think about it, and it s a different thing?
2
SPEAKER_00
Well, right now we have an AI that s smarter than you are by miles.
2
SPEAKER_00
That s not surprising.
2
SPEAKER_00
In arithmetic.
2
SPEAKER_00
Well, that s definitely not surprising.
2
SPEAKER_00
That s your calculator.
2
SPEAKER_03
Oh, man.
2
SPEAKER_00
Your calculator is a genius in arithmetic compared to you.
2
SPEAKER_00
Are we freaked out by that?
2
SPEAKER_00
No, because it s a very narrow thing.
2
SPEAKER_00
Your GPS is smarter than you are in spatial navigation.
2
SPEAKER_00
Google is way smarter than you are in recall.
2
SPEAKER_00
It has memorized.
2
SPEAKER_00
60 trillion webpages.
2
SPEAKER_00
Every word on 60 trillion webpages has it in its head right now.
2
SPEAKER_00
It just knows it.
2
SPEAKER_00
That s how you search for it.
2
SPEAKER_00
All these things are much greater than us.
2
SPEAKER_00
What we re going to do is we ll make these AIs more complicated by adding many different kinds of thinking, but our own brains
2
SPEAKER_00
have many different types of thinking in them.
2
SPEAKER_00
Deductive reasoning, symbolic reasoning, emotional intelligence, spatial navigation, all these things.
2
SPEAKER_00
They re very complicated, not one IQ, which is just one vector.
2
SPEAKER_00
It s a multi-dimensional space, and the AIs that we make are also gonna be the same way.
2
SPEAKER_00
In some cases, some parts of those will be greater than us, and others will be more quieter.
2
SPEAKER_00
You can t optimize everything.
2
SPEAKER_03
Right, I don t need my cat toy to be smarter than me, except in the arena of entertaining my cat while I m trying to sleep or whatever.
2
SPEAKER_00
Right, your car, the self-driving car, will have an AI that s not like humans on purpose, because we don t want it to be like humans.
2
SPEAKER_00
We don t want it to be conscious.
2
SPEAKER_00
You don t want to be distracted.
2
SPEAKER_03
I don t want my car distracted.
2
SPEAKER_00
You just want it to drive, and it s going to drive much better than the humans are.
2
SPEAKER_00
As you were saying, people might complain that they don t have the right to drive anymore, and they may not, and there s lots of problems to overcome.
2
SPEAKER_00
But in general, it will drive better than humans, and that s why we re going to have them do it, because they don t think like humans.
2
SPEAKER_00
And they ll probably be really lousy with the conversation.
2
SPEAKER_00
And if you want a conversation, you have to have another kind of AI, the conversation bot.
2
SPEAKER_00
And so, all these are different ways of thinking, and we re actually going to invent wholly new ways of thinking, just as we invented new ways of flying.
2
SPEAKER_00
We didn t flap wings.
2
SPEAKER_00
We said, well, no, the way you make an artificial bird is you make a stiff wing with a huge propeller on it.
2
SPEAKER_03
A flap wing.
2
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, yeah, or the orthocopter.
2
SPEAKER_00
The way we re gonna make AI is not
2
SPEAKER_00
like humans thinking.
2
SPEAKER_00
It s like a barn door with a propeller and we re going to make it think in a new way.
2
SPEAKER_00
And those different ways of thinking are going to be the most valuable thing about it.
2
SPEAKER_00
And so we re going to invent, for some of the hardest problems in business and in science, we probably require new types of brains to figure them out and solve them.
2
SPEAKER_00
So we re going to be working with them because we think differently than they think and they think differently than we do.
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2
SPEAKER_03
Right, so instead of a calculator that s just good for doing math, we might have a bot that shows us how to keep water clean at an optimum level across the entire planet, or something like that.
2
SPEAKER_00
Right, right.
2
SPEAKER_00
You know, like when we re trying to solve some problems, say like taxation fairness.
2
SPEAKER_00
Well, there s no perfect taxation thing, because it can t be fair for seven billion people.
2
SPEAKER_00
But you might have ways to actually try and level it in many different dimensions all at once, something we can t do.
2
SPEAKER_03
Right, by making seven billion different calculations.
2
SPEAKER_00
Right, right.
2
SPEAKER_00
Similar things like that.
2
SPEAKER_00
So there s some real kinds of social level, not just trivial, but really significant things that we may use this other kind of thinking to do for us.
2
SPEAKER_03
That s gonna require a lot of what you had mentioned, tracking, which scares the crap out of maybe half the population, the other half of the population is voluntarily wearing things like you and I are right now to track more stuff because we want to accelerate this process.
2
SPEAKER_03
Why is tracking so uncomfortable?
2
SPEAKER_03
What is it about that us as humans just find tracking a little bit off-putting?
2
SPEAKER_00
Well, so first of all, I don t think we find it off-putting in general because we evolved in little clans.
2
SPEAKER_00
In those clans, everybody knew everything about you.
2
SPEAKER_00
If we were in the same clan, man, we would know
2
SPEAKER_00
And we were living, we had no technology.
2
SPEAKER_00
It s like, I know everything about you, day and night.
2
SPEAKER_00
It s like high school, but times 10.
2
SPEAKER_00
Times 10, everything about you.
2
SPEAKER_00
There was no escape.
2
SPEAKER_00
We re sleeping in the same big room.
2
SPEAKER_00
I mean, they literally were.
2
SPEAKER_00
And so, we have comfort there, and the reason why we are comfortable with that is because it was symmetrical, it was mutual.
2
SPEAKER_00
I saw you, you saw me, and you knew everything about me.
2
SPEAKER_00
And if you got a wrong idea, or I could correct you, I could hold you accountable, I got some benefit from all that.
2
SPEAKER_00
Where we re uncomfortable now is when we have tracking and it s not symmetrical.
2
SPEAKER_00
They, whoever they are, are watching me.
2
SPEAKER_00
I don t know what they re gathering.
2
SPEAKER_00
they re not accountable to me, they could be totally wrong, and I get no benefit.
2
SPEAKER_00
So that is what feels uncomfortable, is this asymmetry.
2
SPEAKER_00
And so I talk about covalence, which is restoring that symmetry so that we are watching the watchers, the watchers are watching us, there s a mutual respect and accountability.
2
SPEAKER_00
So if something s being tracked, I want to have access to it, I need to be able to hold them accountable for what happens with that information, and I need to get direct benefit from it.
2
SPEAKER_00
If we can do that, I think we can restore some of that covalence.
2
SPEAKER_00
Now that is a big task to do when you have a government or a big company like Google, because obviously it s not symmetrical.
2
SPEAKER_00
They are huge, and they know everybody s, and I don t even know me.
2
SPEAKER_00
Restoring that kind of symmetry is a big challenge, but I think we can go a lot further to where we are by enabling that mutual surveillance.
3
SPEAKER_00
This makes sense because, of course, getting big data companies to share data, which is essentially the industry that they re in, could be a little tricky.
3
SPEAKER_00
It s going to be like an arms race, where you put your data out there first.
3
SPEAKER_00
Well, no, you put your data out there first.
3
SPEAKER_00
But what data do we want to share?
3
SPEAKER_00
What data should everyone have access to?
3
SPEAKER_00
Is there going to be a government oversight body that s going to try to do this?
3
SPEAKER_00
Which, let s not even go into the efficiency of that.
3
SPEAKER_00
It could be really tricky.
3
SPEAKER_01
It is gonna be tricky, and we re gonna be talking about it forever now, and I would even argue with some of the basic ideas of data ownership.
3
SPEAKER_01
I don t believe you can really even own data.
3
SPEAKER_00
How s that?
3
SPEAKER_00
I mean, you can collect it, right, but it s not yours?
3
SPEAKER_01
Well, okay, so let s take the data, the one thing that I am here right now.
3
SPEAKER_01
How can I own that?
3
SPEAKER_01
First of all, because I m in a space that other people own, and they know that I m here, so how do I own it if they also have it too, right?
3
SPEAKER_01
There s these inherent difficulties of owning bits, but also owning bits whose meaning comes from the fact that there s more than one person, more than one stakes involved in it.
3
SPEAKER_01
And so even my heartbeat, in a certain sense, I m generating the heartbeat, but this device that s measuring it, they have a stake in that too.
3
SPEAKER_01
They have some responsibilities and duties and rights from the fact that they are collecting that information.
3
SPEAKER_01
So there s many different parts, and they have some ownership of that in a certain sense.
3
SPEAKER_01
So I think the idea of a single agent owning some device
3
SPEAKER_01
data I think is the wrong model is what I m saying.
3
SPEAKER_01
I think we want to think about it as like you have multiple factors, multiple agents, multiple stakeholders in every bit that s being generated.
3
SPEAKER_00
the first sort of subsection in the book, is it 12 subsections?
3
SPEAKER_00
The first one I noticed was becoming, in that we are endless newbies, which makes me feel really good, by the way, because I feel, my parents, when they look at things like iPhones, I have to, my dad just found out there was email on his phone, he s had an iPhone for I think three or four years now, and my mom said, oh, just check your email on your phone, and he said, I can check my email on my phone,
3
SPEAKER_00
And we laugh about it, but that s me in 20 years, right?
3
SPEAKER_00
Unless it s everybody in 20 years, then it s okay.
3
SPEAKER_01
Well, it is everybody in 20 years.
3
SPEAKER_01
Everyone s gonna be a newbie.
3
SPEAKER_01
So you think you re feeling really good because you finally mastered your smartphone, but in four years we ll have VR, and then a whole new set of gestures and logic and language that will be needed to learn anew for that.
3
SPEAKER_01
And, you know, you may be pretty cool because you just graduated, you know, Java.
3
SPEAKER_01
Well, Java is, you know, you re going to be in a whole new language you re going to have to learn in four years or so.
3
SPEAKER_01
And then after that, I mean, not just once, but twice and three times and four times.
3
SPEAKER_01
And so we re going to be in this perpetual state of all being newbies, no matter what age we are.
3
SPEAKER_01
of not being late, of being at this equivalent starting gate, where there are no experts.
3
SPEAKER_01
There really are no VR experts, there really are no AI experts, compared to what we know in 30 years.
3
SPEAKER_00
It seems like the gap between, well, for example, the 90s, if you knew stuff about computers, people were like, whoa, what s going on with the whole computer thing?
3
SPEAKER_00
My friend has a computer.
3
SPEAKER_00
So the gap between, I guess you d call it almost, not tribal knowledge, but having technology be esoteric in some fashion, that s quickly coming to a close.
3
SPEAKER_00
so fast and so quickly that now it s going to be the opposite where nobody actually has a grip on this entirely.
3
SPEAKER_00
It s just a matter of huge swathes of the population consistently learning things.
3
SPEAKER_00
It seems like we do that a little bit now.
3
SPEAKER_00
I mean, I didn t have Instagram until recently because I just didn t want to deal with it.
3
SPEAKER_00
and finally enough people had been tagging me and bugging me to do it that I started it.
3
SPEAKER_00
And it took me about, I don t know, 15 minutes to figure out how to use the whole thing.
3
SPEAKER_00
And even things are very intuitive on purpose to ease in this process.
3
SPEAKER_00
So I liked a photo the other day that my friend posted, and instead of trying to click the heart, because sometimes my finger misses and it hits something else, I just tapped the photo twice and sure enough, the heart popped up and it s like, it knew that I wanted to do that because enough people have probably tried to do that.
3
SPEAKER_00
And they said the most common functionality is a light.
3
SPEAKER_00
Just make the double tap do the most common thing.
3
SPEAKER_00
And so it seems like what you re saying is that s gonna consistently grow until you can pick up something like this as a two-year-old kid and go, huh, I know that this makes it grow and then this thing makes it shrink and then this makes it go that way and this makes it go that way.
3
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, I mean, it s very possible that we can actually have an AI-assisted UX design.
3
SPEAKER_01
So the design is being developed by how people think it should be used.
3
SPEAKER_00
So there s gonna be eight million two-year-olds, and that hive mind dictates how we use all of this stuff.
3
SPEAKER_01
Exactly, right, right.
3
SPEAKER_01
Well, I mean, in a certain sense, that s what spelling works.
3
SPEAKER_01
If enough people misspell something, that is the way it s all gonna be spelled.
3
SPEAKER_00
That s true, that s true.
3
SPEAKER_00
Ask the British, we ve basically done that to every word they once held dear.
3
SPEAKER_01
Right, exactly, and I think we could almost imagine, I don t know, a thousand years from now, when they would spell things logically in English.
3
SPEAKER_01
Just fanatics?
3
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, right.
3
SPEAKER_00
Right.
3
SPEAKER_01
Exactly.
3
SPEAKER_01
What s this, you know, lieutenant or I don t know.
3
SPEAKER_01
L-O-O-T-E-N-T.
3
SPEAKER_00
Or something like that.
3
SPEAKER_01
I don t know.
3
SPEAKER_01
I can t even spell fanatic.
3
SPEAKER_01
Yeah.
3
SPEAKER_01
Yeah.
3
SPEAKER_01
I mean, what was it?
3
SPEAKER_01
The difference between chief and chef.
3
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, there s an I in there somewhere.
3
SPEAKER_01
No, it s a C-H.
3
SPEAKER_01
One is sh, the other one s ch.
3
SPEAKER_01
Oh, I see what you mean, yeah.
3
SPEAKER_01
English is just notorious for this really illogical, irrational spelling.
3
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, we love our exceptions.
3
SPEAKER_01
Which is because it came from the fusion of French and Latin stuff, and here s the kicker, which many languages have the same thing, but in English,
3
SPEAKER_01
Those two joined just at the moment that we froze everything because of dictionaries, because we invented dictionaries.
3
SPEAKER_01
See, normally what would happen- Oh, right, right, sure.
3
SPEAKER_00
It would consistently evolve.
3
SPEAKER_01
It would evolve and everything was sorted out.
3
SPEAKER_01
But we invented dictionaries right at that point of this thing.
3
SPEAKER_01
So we have this frozen artifact of this incomplete fusion.
3
SPEAKER_00
It s like we dictated it all to the Pope, Webster.
3
SPEAKER_00
And he went, this is the way everything is.
3
SPEAKER_00
And if they want to make changes, now it makes news.
3
SPEAKER_00
Well, now selfie s a word.
3
SPEAKER_00
I knew it was a word before you put it in that dumb book that nobody buys anymore.
3
SPEAKER_00
So dictionaries are an artifact that will go away.
3
SPEAKER_00
I would imagine, yeah.
3
SPEAKER_00
Other than translation dictionaries, I think.
3
SPEAKER_01
If you haven t tried the new AI Translate from Google, which was released two days ago, try it.
3
SPEAKER_00
It s funny you should mention that, because I saw an ad the other day for these earbuds that you put in, and if you only speak French, and I only speak Chinese, it works.
3
SPEAKER_00
And I posted this, and everyone wrote, that won t work.
3
SPEAKER_00
Have you tried Google?
3
SPEAKER_01
That will absolutely work, because the new Google Translate is now just about as good as a human translator.
3
SPEAKER_00
That s impressive.
3
SPEAKER_00
Because it used to be ridiculous.
3
SPEAKER_01
It used to be ridiculous.
3
SPEAKER_01
It was only half as good because they were using a part thing.
3
SPEAKER_01
Now they have the new neural nets that they use to beat the Go player, and they ve imported that into that.
3
SPEAKER_01
And so perfect translation is considered a six.
3
SPEAKER_01
A normal human can translate a 5.1, and the Google can translate a 5.0.
3
SPEAKER_01
The old one was a 3.0.
3
SPEAKER_00
That s incredible.
3
SPEAKER_00
So Scott Wilson, who on my Facebook said, that ll never work with Vietnamese, you try that Google Translate.
3
SPEAKER_01
So it only works with Mandarin and Chinese and English right now.
3
SPEAKER_00
Try it later.
3
SPEAKER_01
But I think the idea of having the thing that you wear, and you need to be connected online, but I think the thing that you wear that will translate for you is within five years.
3
SPEAKER_00
So I spent the last five years learning Mandarin, and what you re saying is that may or may not have been a complete waste of my time.
3
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, yeah, right.
3
SPEAKER_00
Shoot.
3
SPEAKER_00
Buhao.
3
SPEAKER_00
Buhao.
3
SPEAKER_00
Langfei shijie.
3
SPEAKER_00
Dang it.
3
SPEAKER_00
What about the rate of progress, and especially AI?
3
SPEAKER_00
Are we gonna become future blind, where things are moving so fast that we just can t even keep up?
3
SPEAKER_00
Because we re no longer sort of bottlenecking the process of design and technology if AI starts to take this over.
3
SPEAKER_01
I want to emphasize again that AI thinks differently than humans and that we will team up with it and there s so much that we value in our own lives that we want human relationships which are terribly inefficient and not at all robotic.
3
SPEAKER_01
I mean, AI can be very creative.
3
SPEAKER_01
We know that right now.
3
SPEAKER_01
It s gonna be very creative.
3
SPEAKER_01
There s this myth that it s not creative.
3
SPEAKER_01
Well, it s very creative.
3
SPEAKER_01
But it s creative in a different way.
3
SPEAKER_01
And we re gonna use that creativity.
3
SPEAKER_01
There ll be designers and other people who will use our creativity of AI.
3
SPEAKER_01
it s not gonna be creative in the way humans are creative.
3
SPEAKER_00
And that s a relief to a lot of people, I think, but also kind of a bummer in some ways, because what if that could take off exponentially?
3
SPEAKER_00
Or do you think that s just a matter of time until that happens as well?
3
SPEAKER_00
With the creativity?
3
SPEAKER_01
It s already happened.
3
SPEAKER_01
The AlphaGo guys who lost, they said that a move 37 in the game three, which was this amazing move, was absolutely one of the most creative moves they ever saw.
3
SPEAKER_00
In the game of Go?
3
SPEAKER_01
In the game of Go.
3
SPEAKER_01
Okay.
3
SPEAKER_01
Right, so this was the AlphaGo, Google, AI, making that move, and they said, the people who knew the best, said that was absolutely one of the most brilliant creative moves ever.
3
SPEAKER_01
Okay, so it was creative.
3
SPEAKER_01
We can see them doing AIs, doing painting, doing music.
3
SPEAKER_01
They can compose music that even experts couldn t tell whether it was a Mozart composition or not.
3
SPEAKER_00
Wow, so to put this in context, the game of Go is, and I might butcher this,
3
SPEAKER_00
kind of like it s Asian sort of chess-ish, checkers-ish, so complicated game that they said AI can never do this because there s just too much going on.
3
SPEAKER_00
It s too big picture and nuanced at the same time.
3
SPEAKER_01
Exactly.
3
SPEAKER_01
It was not something that was at all
4
SPEAKER_01
could be done in a mechanical way of exploring all the possibilities.
4
SPEAKER_01
There were just too many possibilities.
4
SPEAKER_01
The only way you could actually win it was to take a kind of holistic, intuitive snapshot of what was going on.
4
SPEAKER_01
And that s what they thought they couldn t tell a machine how to do, but this neural net from Google actually learned how to do that.
4
SPEAKER_01
And in the same way, it can translate.
4
SPEAKER_01
Translating is not just translate one word at a time.
4
SPEAKER_01
You have to translate the whole sentence at once.
4
SPEAKER_00
And you have to take in the context, if possible.
4
SPEAKER_01
So it s actually being creative.
4
SPEAKER_01
And the thing is, is that it s way of being creative is different from, let me say, the highest or the best way that humans are.
4
SPEAKER_01
And I think what we re gonna discover is that creativity is actually pretty mechanical.
4
SPEAKER_01
Creativity is actually not just creative.
4
SPEAKER_01
There are a lot of aspects of creativity that are gonna be very mechanical.
4
SPEAKER_01
We will teach those aspects to the machines.
4
SPEAKER_00
It looks like an amorphous shape that only humans can do because it really is just maybe hundreds or millions or whatever of little mechanical switches flipped in different directions that make it code, almost like Braille.
4
SPEAKER_01
Well, it s like a lot of things, like consciousness and all.
4
SPEAKER_01
It turns out that there ll be many different species of it, many different varieties of it.
4
SPEAKER_01
And so creativity itself is something we use in a broad term, but there s probably maybe 10, 15 different varieties.
4
SPEAKER_01
And what s gonna happen over time is that we re gonna
4
SPEAKER_01
Evolved the kind of language to understand that in the same way intelligence intelligence is not a single thing.
4
SPEAKER_01
It s a multi-dimension There are many different types of it and over time every person will have an idea of the different types of intelligence and thinking and creativity just like 30 40 years ago Typography was a very esoteric thing that only 200 people in the world knew the difference between serifs and sans serifs face right now everybody knows and
4
SPEAKER_00
Right, because you have Microsoft Word.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right, right.
4
SPEAKER_01
It s a general education in grammar school about kerning.
4
SPEAKER_01
Sure.
4
SPEAKER_00
Right?
4
SPEAKER_00
Yeah.
4
SPEAKER_01
Okay, well, the same thing.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right now, we have no idea about the differences in creativity or intelligence, but every grammar school kid in 50 years will be able to tell you, oh, what are the 10 types of intelligence?
4
SPEAKER_00
Sure.
4
SPEAKER_00
Oh, that s incredible.
4
SPEAKER_00
Right, because it ll be so common that there are different types.
4
SPEAKER_00
Right now, it s just, what do you mean different types of intelligence?
4
SPEAKER_00
There s smart people and dumb people.
4
SPEAKER_01
And the 15 ingredients for creativity.
4
SPEAKER_00
So, yeah.
4
SPEAKER_00
To give people an idea of how much this is a big deal is, you illustrated this really well, humans used to have animals pulling plows and things like that.
4
SPEAKER_00
And then we found engines and electric equipment.
4
SPEAKER_00
Artificial power, I call it.
4
SPEAKER_00
Artificial power, right?
4
SPEAKER_00
Or AP, for those of you who want to follow along at home, right?
4
SPEAKER_00
And it s like, wow, we can have these things working, they don t get tired, we don t have to feed them, they don t die and get sick, I mean, to an extent.
4
SPEAKER_01
They can live much higher, you know, we can make a skyscraper, yeah, right.
4
SPEAKER_00
AI is that times whatever exponential value, because not only are we able to power things and make them strong and infinitely large, small, whatever, we re then going to be able to say, you know what, you figure out the best way to do this, because you have type number 78 intelligence, which is what you re designed to do, I ll be over here not doing a thing, making sure you don t implode or something like that.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right, so like when you drive your car down the highway,
4
SPEAKER_01
with just your wrist and switch, turning a switch.
4
SPEAKER_01
You harness, you call forth, you beckon 250 horses.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right, I think about that sometimes.
4
SPEAKER_00
How many?
4
SPEAKER_01
250 horses?
4
SPEAKER_01
It s like, oh, there they are.
4
SPEAKER_01
And they re gonna run all day.
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SPEAKER_01
We ll use them to throw up a skyscraper like they re making across the street or railways or whatever.
4
SPEAKER_01
Okay, now we re gonna take 250 minds.
4
SPEAKER_01
They re not human minds, but they re 250 minds of some sort.
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SPEAKER_01
We re gonna add them to those 250 horses, and that s a self-driving car.
4
SPEAKER_01
That s the AI car.
4
SPEAKER_01
So the question you wanna ask yourself right now is what would you do
4
SPEAKER_01
If you had 24-7 access to really cheap, 1,000 mines, they re not human mines, but they re smart in many different ways.
4
SPEAKER_01
What would you do with it?
4
SPEAKER_00
Start solving problems or start horsing around?
4
SPEAKER_00
Probably both, I ll be honest.
4
SPEAKER_01
Do something.
4
SPEAKER_01
I mean, you could take the taxis and make Uber.
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SPEAKER_01
You could add them to the drapes.
4
SPEAKER_01
What would you do with 1,000 mines that you could beckon at any time
4
SPEAKER_01
and work for cheap for as long as you want.
4
SPEAKER_01
What could you do?
4
SPEAKER_01
And that s the second industrial revolution.
4
SPEAKER_00
And the people who figure out how to apply the minds are gonna be the people who, the Andrew Carnegie s.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right, and I kind of refer to, I talk about, well, you know, this is the formula for the next 10,000 startups to take X and add AI, because AI becomes a commodity.
4
SPEAKER_01
But if it s a commodity, you also have the reverse problem, which is, well, everybody has access to it, so it s actually take AI and add X.
4
SPEAKER_01
In other words, it s what you do with the AI.
4
SPEAKER_01
It s the interface for it.
4
SPEAKER_01
Because anybody can buy AI just like you can buy electricity.
4
SPEAKER_01
So it s not gonna be no differentiation.
4
SPEAKER_01
You have to do something special.
4
SPEAKER_01
You have to have a particular story and interface, something in addition to the AI.
4
SPEAKER_01
So it s going both ways.
4
SPEAKER_00
Can you give us examples of how this might work in general fields like medicine or construction or real estate or something?
4
SPEAKER_01
Medicine, it s already happening.
4
SPEAKER_01
I just talked to a guy last night doing diagnostics.
4
SPEAKER_01
So right now, an AI can do pretty good medical diagnostics.
4
SPEAKER_01
It s not as good as a human, but by the way, if you re in Africa and don t have access to a doctor and could get this on a phone,
4
SPEAKER_01
It s like 1,000 million times better than no doctor.
4
SPEAKER_00
Sure, sure.
4
SPEAKER_01
And eventually it ll be better than a human doctor with no AI.
4
SPEAKER_01
But the best diagnostician medically today is not an AI and is not a doctor, but it s the team of AI and a doctor.
4
SPEAKER_01
And so that is what will continue.
4
SPEAKER_01
But if you don t have that, again, just the AI by itself is better than no doctor at all.
4
SPEAKER_01
And that s happening very, very, very rapidly.
4
SPEAKER_01
There s a lot of legal issues which will prevent it from happening as quick as it could.
4
SPEAKER_01
the FDA wants to be involved.
4
SPEAKER_01
So this will happen overseas.
4
SPEAKER_00
There s something insidious about it.
4
SPEAKER_00
You gotta be careful.
4
SPEAKER_01
They re trying to kill off all the Armenians, right?
4
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, exactly.
4
SPEAKER_00
It s gonna be something like, be careful, you re 116th Armenian.
4
SPEAKER_00
Wait a minute, what?
4
SPEAKER_00
I m Googling this.
4
SPEAKER_00
Why does my mom not want me to go to the doctor?
4
SPEAKER_00
Photography is something that you re passionate about.
4
SPEAKER_00
How has this changed photography?
4
SPEAKER_01
Well, it s already changed photography.
4
SPEAKER_01
I mean, the reason why your cell phone is a camera is because of computation.
4
SPEAKER_01
So computational photography is replacing heavy lenses and dark rooms with bits, and that will continue to go forward.
4
SPEAKER_01
There s even a possibility of having a lensless photography.
4
SPEAKER_01
That just does computations that replace the lens?
4
SPEAKER_01
What the lens does, there s a sensor and there s a lens, and it s focusing the light, and you have to point it in the general direction.
4
SPEAKER_01
But you could take a flat
4
SPEAKER_01
Sensor on put it out on the table and it gets the light from every single part of the room But they re all different lens if it was smart enough
4
SPEAKER_01
that lens could reverse engineer the entire room.
4
SPEAKER_00
Right, the sensor can reverse engineer the whole room.
4
SPEAKER_01
Without even the lens.
4
SPEAKER_00
And then it just shows you what everything looks like based on mathematical calculations.
4
SPEAKER_01
Right, it reconstructs the entire room just by the fact that this little pixel here will get light from different directions compared to the one next to it.
4
SPEAKER_01
So it s like an insane amount of computation.
4
SPEAKER_01
But it s theoretically possible.
4
SPEAKER_01
So what that means is that, in a certain sense, anything could become a camera.
4
SPEAKER_00
Sure, man, that s gonna be cool to put something like that in space and be able to see 1,000, 10,000, a million times more things than we can see now with Hubble because of this technology.
4
SPEAKER_00
That s gonna be how we discover things that are... That s one way where you make it even more sensitive to photons.
4
SPEAKER_01
That s a separate thing, but that is another possibility, which we could send them into space.
4
SPEAKER_01
But VR, this idea of having a volumetric capture,
4
SPEAKER_01
in real time will occupy photography for a long time.
4
SPEAKER_01
And then the other thing that AI is gonna change photography is right now, if you upload all your photos to Google, the Google AI will search through all your photos and tell you, like you could say, show me all the pictures of my mom.
4
SPEAKER_01
And it ll just get you all the pictures of the mom.
4
SPEAKER_01
You don t have to tag them or anything.
4
SPEAKER_00
Thanks for listening and supporting the Art of Charm.
4
SPEAKER_00
For a list of all the amazing sponsors and discount codes, visit theartofcharm.com slash advertisers.
4
SPEAKER_00
Now, back to the show.
4
SPEAKER_00
what I ve always wanted to do, and I m waiting for somebody to make this on Facebook for literally 10 years, I wanna find all the people in the world that look pretty much exactly like me with different haircuts.
4
SPEAKER_00
You could do that too.
4
SPEAKER_00
Is that possible even now?
4
SPEAKER_00
There have to be, just sheer probability.
4
SPEAKER_00
There s gonna be people who live in China, people who live in Russia, people who live in South America, who basically look like me with hopefully a better haircut.
4
SPEAKER_01
So Facebook says they have the technology to do that.
4
SPEAKER_01
In fact, Facebook says that they have
4
SPEAKER_01
the technology that could identify every human on Earth, even if they re not on Facebook, just because they have their friends probably.
4
SPEAKER_00
Sure, someone got a photo of them.
4
SPEAKER_00
And they ve tagged them.
4
SPEAKER_00
That s incredible.
4
SPEAKER_01
But they don t really want to do that, because they don t think that s their business, and they were somewhat afraid that they would be forced to do that on a regular basis by three
5
SPEAKER_00
three-letter agencies.
5
SPEAKER_01
Sure, well, China can do it first for their own government, and then somebody could say, you know, we can market this, and then we ll all be using that licensed version of the web.
5
SPEAKER_00
So that s possible now.
5
SPEAKER_01
That s incredible.
5
SPEAKER_00
That s possible now, but even if you go on to your, upload your own photos, which I ve uploaded almost 200,000 photos to Google, and I can search for anything in any of my photos.
5
SPEAKER_00
That s so cool.
5
SPEAKER_00
I can say, like, show me all the photos that have, like, apples in them.
5
SPEAKER_00
There they are.
5
SPEAKER_00
Really?
5
SPEAKER_00
Show me all the photos that, I remember there was this guy with a pirate hat.
5
SPEAKER_00
There it is.
5
SPEAKER_01
Oh wow, that s incredible.
5
SPEAKER_01
Right, so that s today.
5
SPEAKER_01
That ties together the world in a really cool way.
5
SPEAKER_01
The other week, I got an email from somebody who said, hey, this is random, but.
5
SPEAKER_01
literally 10 years ago almost now, we did a show on the radio where we were doing, it was an article about Halloween or something like that, and we did a show about it.
5
SPEAKER_01
And we found some guy with a Halloween costume on that he had made that was an ingenious beer keg that he had a drinkable spout, and it was hilarious.
5
SPEAKER_01
And we took that picture and we uploaded it.
5
SPEAKER_01
And last week or so, somebody said, hey, this is weird, but do you know,
5
SPEAKER_01
the guy in the photo and I said, no, we just got on the internet.
5
SPEAKER_01
And he goes, dang, you know what?
5
SPEAKER_01
It s my brother.
5
SPEAKER_01
And we re looking for his friends and he d passed away and we don t have a connection with his life.
5
SPEAKER_01
And we were hoping maybe you knew him.
5
SPEAKER_01
And he goes, I just can t believe I found this picture in your article because he wasn t looking for the picture.
5
SPEAKER_01
He wasn t looking for his brother.
5
SPEAKER_01
He was just reading an article.
5
SPEAKER_01
And it s like, if you re looking for somebody,
5
SPEAKER_01
and you can type in or upload a photo of them that you have of them as a kid and a computer says, well, this is what they would look like now.
5
SPEAKER_01
This person lives in another country.
5
SPEAKER_01
I mean, you could track people in a way that s unprecedented.
5
SPEAKER_00
Well, actually, the Google face recognition will recognize people independent of their age.
5
SPEAKER_01
Really, how does that, so there s certain things in your face that don t change?
5
SPEAKER_00
So he had pictures and he tied to his daughter and when he uploaded his earlier pictures of her when she was really young, it recognized her.
5
SPEAKER_01
That s so cool, oh my gosh.
5
SPEAKER_00
So we re very close to this point where the AIs can understand photos and remember everyone they ve ever seen, that s the thing, is they will remember every single photo and everybody in every single photo forever.
5
SPEAKER_01
This reminds me of when smartphones, or phones in general, that you fit in your pocket.
5
SPEAKER_01
You know how no one knows phone numbers now?
5
SPEAKER_01
Just nobody does.
5
SPEAKER_01
I just don t know my wife.
5
SPEAKER_01
Maybe you should learn at least one, right?
5
SPEAKER_01
And you don t know how to navigate anywhere.
5
SPEAKER_01
Well, maybe you do, and I barely do, but I ll tell you right now, a lot of my friends, especially younger ones, they couldn t find their way out of a paper bag because they have GPS all the time.
5
SPEAKER_01
is recognizing people gonna be something that we eventually stop doing.
5
SPEAKER_01
Like, you look familiar, it s your mother, Jordan, come on.
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SPEAKER_01
My phone s not with me, sorry, I left it in the car.
5
SPEAKER_00
Well, my glasses, it s your glasses that s gonna do it, right?
5
SPEAKER_01
So it ll say, this is Kevin Kelly, you met in 2016.
5
SPEAKER_00
I want that so, so bad.
5
SPEAKER_00
I want it right now.
5
SPEAKER_00
Because I had gone to conferences, and the next day, I m sorry, what was your name?
5
SPEAKER_01
Never again, that ll never happen again.
5
SPEAKER_00
I just spent an afternoon with him, it was terrible.
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, you ll know his name, his wife s name, his kid s birthday, his salary, where he went on vacation.
5
SPEAKER_01
And if you re one of the guys who likes to break things and set them up, you ll be able to add your own notes or you ll be able to crowdsource stuff.
5
SPEAKER_01
Jane thought he was a real jerk.
5
SPEAKER_01
She went out with him three years ago.
5
SPEAKER_01
Here s what happened.
5
SPEAKER_01
Would that change behavior?
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah.
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, I think so.
5
SPEAKER_01
Hopefully for the better.
5
SPEAKER_01
You re always on your best behavior because something that happens with you and I today is going to come back in 10 years with a mutual friend.
5
SPEAKER_00
This is that covalence that I m talking about.
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, we ve got to be careful.
5
SPEAKER_01
Remember, next time you feel like acting up with somebody, covalence.
5
SPEAKER_01
Just remember.
5
SPEAKER_01
And we re training this AI every day, right?
5
SPEAKER_00
Absolutely.
5
SPEAKER_00
You think you re surfing around, clicking on random things, but each time you click, you are training the AI.
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, man.
5
SPEAKER_01
Will AI replace us largely, or will it help us become better humans, mostly?
5
SPEAKER_00
Right now, a lot of the tasks that we do in our lives, any kind of a task where efficiency or productivity is an issue, goes to the bots.
5
SPEAKER_00
But a lot of the things that we value the most, like innovation, science, are inherently inefficient, because you have failure after failure after failure.
5
SPEAKER_00
So those are the things that we re gonna gravitate to, and human experiences, and interpersonal relationships, which, by the way, are inherently inefficient.
5
SPEAKER_00
Those are things that we will continue to do, because we like other humans.
5
SPEAKER_01
And so... Well, we re in San Francisco.
5
SPEAKER_01
I don t know if everybody shares that same view.
5
SPEAKER_01
This is Silicon Valley.
5
SPEAKER_01
Not everybody likes other humans.
5
SPEAKER_00
No, we all like other humans in the end.
5
SPEAKER_00
Some of us like machines, too.
5
SPEAKER_00
Yes, I guess that s true.
5
SPEAKER_00
I think that people forget is that we re going to invent so many new things that we want done with the aid of the AIs and robots.
5
SPEAKER_00
They will inspire us.
5
SPEAKER_00
force us to invent new things that we want done, that we want to happen.
5
SPEAKER_00
And these new things will be new jobs for us.
5
SPEAKER_00
And so there will be so many more new things to do and jobs than before.
5
SPEAKER_01
So they ll just be different jobs.
5
SPEAKER_01
It s not like the freak out that we had when we have an assembly line.
5
SPEAKER_01
Oh my gosh, we don t have to hammer these things into place anymore.
5
SPEAKER_01
All these jobs are going to go away.
5
SPEAKER_01
They re just going to become different jobs or see evolving.
5
SPEAKER_00
The most common job in America right now is truck driver.
5
SPEAKER_00
And what s gonna happen with a lot of the truck drivers, well, some will have to be retrained, but a lot of them are gonna have to keep those trucks going.
5
SPEAKER_01
Sure, they ll turn into auto truck mechanics.
5
SPEAKER_00
Otherwise it ll be a huge thing just to, you know, they ll think differently, there ll be all kinds of things necessary for them to do that we don t do with them right now.
5
SPEAKER_00
It s even possible, I was kind of imagining this, there might be people who you have to ride around inside of them, maybe because in the beginning there ll be certain parts that they can t drive.
5
SPEAKER_00
Right, it won t be too tricky.
5
SPEAKER_00
It ll be too tricky.
5
SPEAKER_00
Or maybe they re like pilots when they come into the harbor.
5
SPEAKER_00
You have pilots that just get in and they drive it there and then they give it back.
5
SPEAKER_00
So maybe they hang out at these tough intersections or whatever it is.
5
SPEAKER_01
They re gonna just watch this and then it s gonna beep and then they re gonna put this on pause and back down the switchback trail.
5
SPEAKER_01
Incredible.
5
SPEAKER_00
So I think we haven t even begun to imagine all the ways in which we are going to participate in this, but there are going to be so many new things for us to do.
5
SPEAKER_01
Elon Musk and Sam Harris and other guys like that have this fear of AI.
5
SPEAKER_01
Do you share this sort of, uh-oh, what happens if it gets too smart thing?
5
SPEAKER_00
Well, the idea there is that you have this intelligence explosion, we make an AI that can then itself design an AI smarter than itself, which then can make something smarter than itself, and you have this infinite regress upwards where it suddenly kind of explodes and becomes God.
5
SPEAKER_00
That s the vision, and of course, then if you re God, you don t need humans.
5
SPEAKER_00
You know, I think that is,
5
SPEAKER_00
has a probability greater than zero, but it s very, very unlikely for many reasons.
5
SPEAKER_00
And I think the main fallacy that makes it, again, is this idea of a single dimension in intelligence.
5
SPEAKER_00
Right, a general intelligence zone.
5
SPEAKER_00
Right, because as I said, AIs are already smarter than us.
5
SPEAKER_01
Right, like I m not afraid of my calculator, I can leave it alone with my fiancee.
5
SPEAKER_00
And so this is the idea that you have this sort of general purpose, and it s also that intelligence is infinite, which is a very interesting idea that we have no evidence for.
5
SPEAKER_01
Right, right, true.
5
SPEAKER_00
That intelligence, unlike, say, speed, speed has a limit, speed of light, temperature has a limit, coldness has a limit,
5
SPEAKER_00
Why do we think intelligence doesn t have a limit?
5
SPEAKER_01
Right, it s kind of like the Greeks, ancient Greeks, everything over, I think, 1,000, they said infinite in all the literature, because they were like, who s gonna need a high ground higher than that?
5
SPEAKER_01
So we re kind of at that point where if you can t see it because it s over the horizon, you just think, wow, it must just keep going forever.
5
SPEAKER_00
Exactly, but we don t have any evidence of that.
5
SPEAKER_01
It s like the flat Earth, right?
5
SPEAKER_01
Does it just go forever?
5
SPEAKER_01
And then, oh, it s a sphere.
5
SPEAKER_00
Oh, that makes so much sense.
5
SPEAKER_00
So is intelligence spherical?
5
SPEAKER_01
Yeah, I don t know, outside my pay grade right now.
5
SPEAKER_01
Robots farm and they manufacture better.
5
SPEAKER_01
Do you think they re gonna be doing the white collar work at some level?
5
SPEAKER_01
I mean, I m a former attorney.
5
SPEAKER_01
I think that a really smart monkey could have done a lot of what I was doing.
5
SPEAKER_01
Certainly I can see AI going through 8,000 legal cases in a certain district and saying, guess what, this is the outcome.
5
SPEAKER_00
Good thing I m not a lawyer anymore.
5
SPEAKER_00
That s one of the biggest things of AI in the law field is going through evidence in a way that the humans simply couldn t.
5
SPEAKER_00
You can t just memorize, but they can actually memorize every single page of, you know, in 10,000 documents.
5
SPEAKER_00
And so that s already happening.
5
SPEAKER_00
The concern people have is what if they re starting to making decisions?
5
SPEAKER_00
What if you have an AI judge?
5
SPEAKER_00
What if you have an AI making some kind of decisions that affects people s lives?
5
SPEAKER_00
And by the way, that s already happening too.
5
SPEAKER_00
How s that?
5
SPEAKER_00
They re using AIs and making mortgages.
5
SPEAKER_00
which would have a huge effect on people.
5
SPEAKER_00
And there will be even more so.
5
SPEAKER_00
Right now, the army is really interested in having drones who kill people, having them be autonomous.
5
SPEAKER_01
So that we don t have a guy in Nevada deciding whether or not to do it.
5
SPEAKER_01
That seems a little, I mean, that viscerally does something to me.
5
SPEAKER_00
Right, okay, and so here s the argument.
5
SPEAKER_00
No AI will ever be accused of a war crime
5
SPEAKER_00
because we ll make their ethics or decision completely waterproof.
5
SPEAKER_00
And so they will be less emotional about it.
5
SPEAKER_00
They will be much more rational.
5
SPEAKER_00
They will follow the orders all the time.
5
SPEAKER_00
And if you have orders that you agree with, then that s what you ll get.
5
SPEAKER_00
And so in a certain sense, you re kind of relieving the humans of some of this messy decision.
5
SPEAKER_01
You realize this is literally how Skynet started, right?
5
SPEAKER_01
Exactly, right.
5
SPEAKER_01
This is exactly what happened.
5
SPEAKER_01
Right.
6
SPEAKER_01
it s gonna be safer, but of course, that also presupposes that it was a generalized AI, which is what you said is not something that we have to worry about.
6
SPEAKER_00
No, you have one just manufactured to kill, that s all.
6
SPEAKER_00
It s not general purpose at all.
6
SPEAKER_01
That s why it s scarier than a calculator, because it has missiles on it.
6
SPEAKER_00
Right, exactly, but it s his only job is, it s not to do anything else but to kill.
6
SPEAKER_00
And by the way, if you re gonna have soldiers, isn t that what you want?
6
SPEAKER_00
I d rather send a robot into battle than my neighbor or my kid.
6
SPEAKER_00
Exactly, right, exactly.
6
SPEAKER_00
So the ethics and morality is something that we re gonna have a huge, or should be having a huge conversation about, and I don t think that s, I mean, that s just the beginning of the conversation, that s not the end.
6
SPEAKER_00
But I will say is that, of course, if the US doesn t do it,
6
SPEAKER_00
they re thinking about China and Russia, well.
6
SPEAKER_01
Somebody else will do it, that s the problem.
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SPEAKER_01
It s like saying, hey, these nuclear things are really dangerous, we should stay away from that.
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Wait, is everybody gonna abide by that?
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Probably not.
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Alright, get to work on these things.
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So people ask me if I m worried about anything in technology, and this is what I m worried about, is the weaponization of AI and cyber warfare, and cyber war, because
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We have no agreed rules.
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We have no consensus among all these big superpowers, big powers, what the rules should be.
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Is it okay to hack into a nation s banking system and take it down?
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Is that like chemical warfare or is that like, you know, that s just war?
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Fair play.
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That s just fair play.
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And what about, you know, taking out the traffic lights?
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It s like we have no rules at all about what s acceptable.
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And even though the U.S.
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has offensive cyber hacking and China and Russia and Iran and Israel, nobody is admitting to it and therefore there s no consensus on what s acceptable.
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Right, we re kind of in that rape and pillage phase where people used to go and burn down the whole village, and it s like, why did they do that?
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That was unnecessary.
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We re kind of there with cyber warfare.
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Well, they said it was necessary because they wanted to show strength.
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Sure.
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They had a justification.
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Right.
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But we ve come to say, no, that s unacceptable.
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Women and children are unacceptable, and killing them, or chemicals, maybe mines to some extent, but we should be.
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So we don t have the equivalent right now in cyber.
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Partly because it s really hard to verify.
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Quantify, exactly.
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Verify who s done it.
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But also because it s also new and we don t have these equivalencies right now in our minds.
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Yeah, it s hard to say taking out the electrical grid during the winter time in Michigan was as severe as just carpet bombing Detroit.
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But it kind of, maybe it has the exact same effect in terms of human life.
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It could.
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And so I do worry that we might have or endure a huge disaster
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first before it kind of forces a demand for this.
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Sure, I can absolutely see that.
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And you outlined the seven stages of robot replacement.
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Am I getting that right?
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It was something like, I did the first three in my head, which is, oh, that s never gonna happen.
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That was stage one, I think, right?
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There was a Pew survey of the internet, did this very large-scale survey, which I replicated at my book launch, was 200 people from Silicon Valley, and it s important to remember that they re from Silicon Valley.
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And I asked the same question that Pew asked, and I said, how many people here would agree with the statement that in 50 years, 75% of the current jobs would be gone?
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Because 150 years ago, 70% of Americans were farmers,
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less than 1%, so basically 70% of all American jobs were gone, were completely eradicated by technology.
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How many people in this room think that in 50 years from now, 75% of all today s jobs will be gone?
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And it was almost universal.
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Everybody said, yes, I think 70% in 50 years.
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And then I asked the follow-up question, which Pew said,
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How many people here would agree with the statement that in 50 years, your job is going to be gone?
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Nobody.
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Nobody.
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Of course.
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So they think, oh, everyone else s job is going to be taken by them.
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But not mine.
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Poor bastards.
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But not my job.
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Luckily, I m smarter than that.
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I knew that coming.
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Saw it coming.
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Well, I think Jordan Bot would do pretty good.
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He probably wouldn t have to pee halfway through every single show, which is fine.
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I mean, that s an improvement if I ve ever seen one.
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It s true.
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I mean, I guarantee you, if you ask any lawyer right now if a robot can do their job, I would say that a much greater percentage than half is going to say, well, probably not what I do because it s a little more nuanced, but some of my first year and second year associates, those people are definitely going to be screwed, you know, in 20 years.
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I can see that for sure.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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What I really like about the future, according to Kevin Kelly, is personalization of everything.
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A lot of people are kind of scared of this.
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Oh, I saw an ad for a jacket on Facebook and I was just looking at it.
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That s creeping me out.
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I love that.
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I think that s one of the coolest things that we re going to see.
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And you took it a step further, which I thought was even more amazing.
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I was taking my vitamins this morning, for example, and I took, I don t know, some sort of multi things, liquid.
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and some garlic and then fish oil and oregano or whatever, but you re saying that in the future it s gonna be able to look at my DNA and say, or my metabolism or some combination of factors and say, all right, your multi has exactly this and none of that, and you re taking exactly this amount of this and none of this other stuff, and you might be able to even use 23andMe and order this combo from Amazon in the future.
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Pretty soon we ll probably be making them at home.
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day by day.
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Exactly, there s this guy in Silicon Valley who has a startup that is, he called it 3D pill printing, but it s actually a little more complicated.
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It has to do with quantified self stuff, where you re monitoring your own health, not just health.
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Nanobots in your bloodstream or something.
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Whatever, I mean, there s so many things right now.
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There s even ways to actually do blood tests without pricking you.
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One way is to actually look at, measure your exhalations.
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Turns out that when you exhale, you re actually exhaling a lot of body chemistry.
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And on the way is a way to actually suck blood through your skin without pricking it in a very tiny amounts that you can actually measure.
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So you can do kind of like ongoing blood test things that right now are done very infrequently and are expensive, but tell you everything about your blood.
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So imagine if you had some kind of thing at home where you had any kind of supplements or treatments that you were taking all in bulk.
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and each day you would make one pill.
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It would take all the things you were supposed to take and take one pill and you would take it and then your sensors would measure the results in your body, the changes.
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And it would send it back to the pill machine so that tomorrow it s going to readjust the dosages.
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SPEAKER_00
Oh, you got too much iron before lunch.
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We ll have that release a little slower.
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Right, and so we ll remix it so you have this daily personal therapeutic just for you.
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Great.
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That s where we re going with this kind of stuff.
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Too busy to have lunch?
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Try this Wi-Fi backpatch that sucks your blood through your skin, measures what you need, and manufactures it for you.
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Right, exactly.
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Might wanna work on that copy.
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So if we have all these medical cures, we ve got all this personalization, our healthcare is going to be great, our lifestyle is going to be great, hopefully a lot safer, are you worried about overpopulation at all?
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Oh my gosh, no.
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I m worried about underpopulation, severe underpopulation on a global level.
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There are a couple countries in the world that I spend a lot of time in, like Japan, where depopulation is a real issue.
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Every official UN projection that we ve seen has one version of it where the population peaks out in, I don t know, whatever it is, it s 2070 or somewhere, there s a peak population.
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What s interesting about all those curves is they never show you the other side, what happens on the other side.
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Right, it s always, here s the scary thing you gotta look forward to.
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It stops right here, but it s like, okay, what happens on the other side is it goes down, down, down, down, because you have basically low fertility, below replacement level throughout the world.
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And this begins in the developed countries, but it s happening very rapidly even in the developing countries.
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And China s aging faster than the US.
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Okay, Mexico s aging faster than the US.
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The US is sort of an exception,
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for only one reason.
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Immigration.
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Really?
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The U.S.
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would be in the same state as Italy and other countries if we didn t have immigration.
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So that s another reason for many good reasons to have immigration because we ll have a positive fertility rate.
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So send us your huddled masses as long as they re under 30.
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Exactly, right.
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So some people would say, well, that s really good for the Earth because we have less people, less stress on it.
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But here s the thing.
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Throughout history, throughout the entire 10,000 years of recorded history that we know about, every time there was rising standards of living, it always was accompanied by increasing population.
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SPEAKER_00
Oh, I see, okay.
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We have no evidence anywhere.
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There have been increasing populations and decreasing standards, but there s never been increasing standards and decreasing population.
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Because basically, the more people you have, the more minds you have, the more of a market you have, et cetera.
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So we have no evidence, no experience with increasing standards and decreasing population.
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So do you think our standards will potentially decrease when the population goes down?
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So one idea is, that s one idea.
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The second idea is we have to have a new kind of capitalism or a new kind of a market.
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Third idea is, well, we make artificial minds.
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And they will buy stuff or, you know, who knows.
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The main point is that we re in uncharted territory, that we don t know
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No, because imagine this, you re in a business where every year, there s fewer and fewer people to buy, you have fewer and fewer workers to work on it.
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SPEAKER_01
Your market is smaller and smaller, no matter what.
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No matter what, yeah.
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So, how do you increase prosperity over time?
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And so, AI may be part of that?
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Maybe, but you and I will be dead by then, so it s your problem now.
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Kevin, thank you so much.
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Hey, it was really great.
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Likewise.
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Really great, thank you.
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really interesting stuff, super fascinating guy and super fascinating research.
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Really, AI being the thing we add to everything, just like electricity was the thing we added to all of our machines, that s big news.
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And the fact that that s happening in our lifetime is really something special.
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So I hope to hear of a few of you future billionaires building something that includes AI.
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If you enjoyed this one, don t forget you can thank Kevin on Twitter.
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We ll have that linked in the show notes, as well as the other resources mentioned on the show, including the book, The Inevitable.
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You can tap our album art, that s a little picture of me and AJ, in most mobile podcast players to see the cheat sheet for this episode, and we link to the show notes directly on your phone.
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I m also on Twitter.
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I post a lot of stuff that never makes it to the show, articles, insights, other ways to engage with me and producer Jason.
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I m at The Art of Charm on Twitter.
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Our boot camps, our live programs taking place here in L.A., that s at bootcamp.theartofcharm.
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We sell out a few months in advance, so if you re thinking about it a little bit, you should get in touch with us, get some info from us so you can plan ahead.
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And yes, I know a lot of you overseas, but bear in mind, right now, we ve got people from Europe, Australia, and Asia, as well as the U.S.
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and Canada, so that can t really be your excuse anymore.
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And if it is, well, you shouldn t believe it, because I sure don t.
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I also want to encourage you to join us in the AOC Challenge.
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That s at theartofcharm.com slash challenge, or if you re in the US, text charmed, that s C-H-A-R-M-E-D, to 33444.
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The challenge is all about improving your networking and connection skills, and inspiring those around you to develop a personal and professional relationship with you.
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We ll also email you our Fundamentals Toolbox that I mentioned earlier in the show.
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I also do regular videos with drills and exercises to help you move forward.
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It ll make you a better networker, a better connector, and a better thinker.
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That s theartofcharm.com slash challenge or text charmed here in the US to 33444.
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For the full show notes for this and all previous episodes, head on over to theartofcharm.com slash podcast.
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This episode of The Art of Charm was produced by Jason DeFilippo.
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Jason Sanderson is our audio engineer and editor.
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Show notes on the website are by Robert Fogerty.
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I m your host, Jordan Harbinger.
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Go ahead, tell your friends, because the greatest compliment you can give us is a referral to someone else, either in person or shared on the web.
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So stay charming and leave everything and everyone better than you found them.
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Thanks for listening to The Art of Charm.
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Get more confidence, relationship skills, life hacks, and more at theartofcharmpodcast.com.