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Welcome back to the Advanced Selling Podcast, the longest running sales training podcast in podcast history.
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We are back at another episode.
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I m Bill Kasky.
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I m Brian Neal here.
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If you are new to the Advanced Selling Podcast, you will join about, what, 13 million people?
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At least.
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I mean, 13,000.
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No, no, no.
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Oh, the listened ever.
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I thought you meant the listened ever.
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No, 13 million downloads.
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Yeah, 13,000 people on LinkedIn.
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And go join us.
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There s good conversations there.
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And we post situations and questions occasionally.
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So join us on LinkedIn, advancedsellingpodcast.com slash LinkedIn.
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We re really happy you re here.
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And as I started this little bit about if you re a brand new listener, go to advancedsellingpodcast.com.
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There s the top, I don t know, 15 or 20 episodes of all time in terms of downloads.
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That s a good place to start.
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Absolutely.
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Let s see here.
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I was going to ask you a question about something here, Bill.
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Let me see if I can find it real quick.
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Here s a question I have.
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This is a language question, by the way.
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By the way, as you know, we talked a little bit about our friends at Exactly Corp, who help you with commission planning and forecasting and things like that, are our partners for the month of March.
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We re talking about all things that, forecasting, and we re gonna talk about forecasting in a minute, big, big topic.
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And so stay tuned for that.
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This is a word.
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Here s it, here s it.
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Words sometimes go together, right?
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I heard this word, this phrase, and I want to know if you ever heard the word outside of the phrase, if that makes sense.
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The word is tribulations.
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And the question I have, you always hear the word tribulations with the word trials.
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It goes along with trials and tribulations.
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And I was trying to think of a scenario where I ve heard the word tribulations without the word trials in front of it.
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And I couldn t think of one.
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And I thought, if anybody can think of one,
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Bill Caskey could be you, but you got to think about that.
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Yeah.
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So, and without it being even awkward and I thought, you know, just sort of goes together and you know, you also, it feels like you can t say, you know, if you look at the trials of his life, I m like, uh, you know,
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He s been through a lot of trials and problems.
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You kind of have to say tribulations.
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I don t even know what a tribulation is.
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It s almost like I could see myself really trying to use one of those and not being successful because he s been through a lot of trials and things.
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We re trying, yeah, try not to say that.
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Yeah.
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In other words, when you were explaining, I thought, well, there s other words like shits and giggles.
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I ve never, I ve never, I don t like that term, but I ve heard it before.
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It s like, well, there s never just, uh, let s do that for giggles.
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We re rated PG now.
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Welcome to the Disney Plus version.
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First time in 6,000 episodes.
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We re back on the E. I don t think the E matters anymore.
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Go to Spotify.
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Look at the top 50 songs in the United States.
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They re all E. Anything you say has got an E on it.
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It s funny, isn t it?
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Yeah, so let s get into the topic, because I ll have to think about that.
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Yeah, think about that, if you can come up with something.
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And or other word pairs, like you said, like that, blanks and giggles, or chars and tribulations, or things that sort of have to go, like intents and purposes, you know, those sort of have to go, you know, for all intents, I think we should do this.
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Like, it doesn t make any sense.
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You got to say for everything.
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See, I think for all purposes, we should do this.
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Now, you wouldn t say that you would only say,
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I think for all intents and purposes, we should go.
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So we should combine those into one word, because they re really just one word, even though they re three words.
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Or what s also funny is sometimes you ll hear people use one of the words correctly and the other word not correctly.
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Well, you know, we ve had a lot of threats and tribulations here.
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You mean trials?
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No, I mean threats.
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No, you don t.
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I know what you meant.
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That s not what you meant.
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Um, all right.
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So we re carrying on, uh, our, uh, monthly theme with our friends at exactly corp, uh, it s X, a C T L Y corp.com is where you find out, uh, stuff about their, their programs and products.
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Really, really cool stuff.
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We re going to talk a little bit today about forecasting and this you talk about bill.
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If we want to make a billion dollars, if we solve the forecasting problem for sales leaders in the United States and globally, it s all over.
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And it s really, really big problem.
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Very difficult to do.
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exactly helps people do that.
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They really do it under the heading of helping people predict their incomes, which is interesting, because if you re an incented comp salesperson, you think you d want to predict your income pretty accurately over time, versus getting surprised and going, yeah, I thought I was going to make 10 grand in commission in June, and I only made four, or vice versa.
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Or I thought I was going to make six, and I made 20.
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That s not really good for the old household income planning.
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I want to get your take, first of all.
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So I start off by saying, I think this is a huge problem.
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Most of the clients that we deal with, if you talk to their CEO, CFO especially, and then also their sales leader would say, yeah, we pretty much suck at forecasting.
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Or we re getting better, but it s still a big problem.
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So what is it?
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Is it that they are overguessing?
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I think it s both.
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Honestly, it s both.
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And I think that s what some people think that it s always overguessing.
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A few of my clients who have, they have to buy either equipment or materials.
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It can be just as bad the other way.
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For sure, especially in these inflationary times we re in.
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as the cost of input goods go up quickly, a salesperson may be holding a deal back, not letting the company know that it s close.
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And they ve quartered it with two-month-old material pricing.
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Then when it actually goes to hit and get closed, the material prices have gone up.
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There s no margin left in the deal.
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That happens, too.
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So it s both, I think, on that one.
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Yeah, and even in the service industry, we talk to a lot of people.
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I know on the podcast here, our audience is made up of digital agencies and advertising people and consulting companies.
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As you pare down your staff and just work with people who you don t want to have a lot of people sitting around doing nothing, which is not.
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So you ve pared everything down.
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And then when a big deal comes in, you re not ready for it.
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So I think even services, it doesn t have to just be products where you re actually buying things in a supply chain.
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It could also be services where you re demanding that people be ready.
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You can t just a great hairstylist, you can t call her today.
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and have an appointment tomorrow morning.
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They re just too busy, there s no way.
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So don t think just because Brian s talking about products, we don t also mean services, because it could be the same there.
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Fantastic point, fantastic point.
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Do you go to a stylist, Bill?
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I do.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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I don t know what I go to a barber now.
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Yeah.
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I don t I wouldn t call him a stylist though.
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But when, when does that, when does that change?
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You know what I mean?
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Yeah.
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I mean, what price is it?
$30 20.
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Yeah.
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I m 30.
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I think I m 30 bucks for a good haircut.
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And I call it a stylist.
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So that s right.
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It s not a pricing thing.
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Is it?
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I don t know.
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My guy s Dominican.
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He s Dominican.
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Guy s not a cut hair.
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My girls are always brilliant.
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Awesome.
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Awesome.
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We digress.
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Let s talk about forecasting.
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So let s talk about like root cause.
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I ve got a couple takes on root cause.
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I d love to get your take on these Bill.
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First root cause, I believe, starts with leadership.
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And it s the inability of leadership to give permission to the sales team to tell them the truth.
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So what I think happens is the sales leader is under pressure from the CEO, CFO, or the board to have a big funnel built up of all this good forecast.
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They always want it to be good.
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And.
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They take that energy and they pass it along to the sales team.
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Hey, we gotta make sure we got deals.
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We gotta have enough deals.
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We need to be cooking at $50 million in the pipe at any point in time.
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And it s gotta be 50 million.
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We gotta make sure we get 50 million in the pipe.
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And so that the sales team, just so they don t get in trouble, they just put BS in there.
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Did to get it to 50 so everyone thinks it s good and it s not real and i think that starts with leadership i think leaders have to change their tune with that and say even if it s bad i still need to know where reality is i have to know where reality is.
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That s my first hit on it.
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It was described really well about the chain of events that happens.
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It s the board, and then it s CEO, and then it s this, and it s this.
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And then the VP of sales or sales manager, hey, come on, let s quote it.
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Let s quote it.
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Totally.
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Let s get a quote out there.
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Well, once it s quoted, now it s part of the equation.
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And I had a manager who used to do that.
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Now, we didn t monitor.
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We didn t measure anything like that back in the 1920s.
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But we always defaulted to, let s get a quote.
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Let s get a quote.
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But we don t even know what s going on today.
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Let s get a quote.
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Let s have one.
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Then we can work on the problem.
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root cause is we re dealing with human nature.
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We re dealing with human beings, the CEO, the sales professional, the customer, the customer s CFO.
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I mean, there s a lot of people in the chain.
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And people are just unpredictable.
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And I think that s what we re dealing with.
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And I think that s what we re dealing with.
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What might be a promise today from a customer to buy by the end of the month, four hours from now, turns into a massive problem inside the company and we re going to halt all purchases for 90 days.
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And I had this happen about, uh, I may have mentioned about three months ago.
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I ve been working with this company for three or four months, you know, back and forth.
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And there was a, there was strikes and there was things in the labor force and we got ready to start.
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We re going to start in February.
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And he, he emails me the day before we re supposed to start and said, Hey, the CEO just, uh, put a cap on all expenses.
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And I said, I m out.
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I m done.
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Yeah.
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Done.
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Yes.
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And, and he basically said, I don t blame you.
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Yeah.
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I mean, leave a company, it would have been a short three month thing anyway.
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And it wouldn t, it just felt so crappy when he did that.
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It s like, okay.
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But it s still, I don t blame him.
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I know he got the memo, but everything is unpredictable, especially today, especially with people coming and going.
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And there s, there s a lot of vagueness in where companies are going.
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And so you might, you as a sales professional selling them something, we ll pay the price for that at some point.
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That s fantastic.
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So true, isn t it?
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And everyone wants to solve like all AI and all this jazz, but they re humans involved There always will be I believe that to be true and then Yeah, human beings are human beings, aren t they?
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They can just be fickle.
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They can be fickle.
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I
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And it s us too.
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It s not just the manager and the customer.
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It s we who don t ask that question that really is destined to determine, will determine when they re going to buy because we re a little bit leery, a little bit afraid.
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And then we assume, well, we ll put it on the forecast for April.
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We ll give it an extra 30 days in April.
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We never even ask them.
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So they don t know when we re expecting them to buy because we didn t ask the question.
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So it s all of us.
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So good.
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So good.
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And that then leads me to the next level down is the sales person s role in this.
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And if you look at what exactly does to help sales people is it s really about helping them forecast, not just their sales, but it helps them then forecast their commissions.
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So you can predict what you re going to make in that sort of thing.
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Well, that starts to me, and this is a core principle we teach all of our clients, is you have to live a life of extreme objectivity, extreme objectivity.
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And you can t settle for anything less than that.
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And so what happens is, here s the easiest way to prove, and I can prove it any sales org I go into for the first time that I ve never worked with before.
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that they don t live in an objective and extreme objective world is I ll open up their CRM, they can use HubSpot or Salesforce or doesn t matter, Goldmine, anything, any of them, Microsoft CRM.
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And I ll get pull up all your open opportunities.
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This is where the funnel comes in.
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So here s the big funnel forecasted fundraise $50 million there.
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Go look at the projected close dates and count the number that are in the past.
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And I guarantee you there will be at least 10% of the open opportunities will be closed date in the past.
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Meaning the anticipated close date today is February 26th.
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10% is all.
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Well, that s what I mean.
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At the minimum 10% usually, usually it s in the 30 to 40% 30 to 40% of your open opportunities have closed dates in the past.
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Like, just think about that for a second.
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It, you talk about like making absolutely no sense.
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Then we justify that with, well, I just haven t updated it yet.
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That s not true either.
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You re just keeping it in there.
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Just hoping that at some point it closes.
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You have no control over process.
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You have no agreed to dates or anything like that.
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You re just blowing in the wind.
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You haven t talked to them for six weeks.
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Yeah, they haven t said no yet, so I m going to keep it open.
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It s like, what are we doing?
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They are saying no.
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So that s a first thing.
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It s a real mechanical thing to do.
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And when you do this, if you do it right, without any, with zero debate, your funnel will shrink, as it should, because now it s real.
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And we talk about accurate forecasting.
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That s the first thing we do is we clean that up.
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We get all of the dates if you live in extreme objectivity 100% of the time all of the closed dates in the CRM are in the future.
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They re never ever in the past.
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Yeah, so that s easy My take is a little different.
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I don t I don t think it s at odds with that, but I feel like I
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You know, when we start thinking about forecasting and when is something going to close and we re not sure and we re off, it seems like that problem starts way earlier than when we re having our forecasting meeting on a Friday afternoon over cocktails.
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Yes.
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It starts early in the sales process when we erred.
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We didn t do something we should have done.
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We did something we shouldn t have done.
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We screwed it up.
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Somehow we screwed it up.
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And now, in the 11th hour, we re paying the price.
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And now it s hard to go back and change something that wasn t covered in call number two.
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And so what we do then as we push was, well, what about April?
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Can we count on you April 15?
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We start negotiating this BS.
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It really had nothing to do with that.
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It had to do with we never compelled them to want to even buy it in the first place.
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And we have them at 80%.
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They have us at 20%.
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Right.
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So I m always trying to figure out, well, are we spending our time in the right place if we re only considering forecasting?
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I think it s important.
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Plus, I think when we get ready to go down a path with a prospect, I think it s really good to have a forecast.
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It s really good to say, well, here, generally, this is where I think it s going to close.
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Don t hold me to it.
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But generally, I think these things take four or five months, and I m looking for June 1st.
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I think that s really healthy.
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Hmm.
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Never really thought about that.
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Thought about the customer side of forecasting our deal with them.
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Cause if it s significant, if we re going to ask them to write us a check for 5,800 grand or 2 million bucks, it needs to be in their forecast too, in a different column.
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Right.
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So we got, you know, then people say we ve got a budget for this.
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We don t that sort of thing, but we should ask that question.
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If we ve got it at 80%, where do they have it?
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Cause they got to present their budget and their case back to their person.
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That s a really interesting thing.
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I ve never really thought of is we ve got it at 90%.
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Where do they have it?
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That s a great question to ask.
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Because I remember when I was at Woods Wire, we used to sell extension cords and cabling to large Home Depot and Walmart and these guys, Lowe s.
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And I remember one day, I was at Woodwire, and I was talking to one of the guys.
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And he said, you know, I m going to tell you something.
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I m going to tell you something.
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I m going to tell you something.
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I m going to tell you something.
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I always remember that certain customers we would be in sales role with.
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But Home Depot, you re not in sales role.
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You re in planning role.
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Yeah, right, right, right.
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You re going to need 40,000 cords at the end of June.
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And they come to us and say, look, some from China, some from India.
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Where are they coming from?
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And so we would align around that.
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And then we would talk about price.
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And they would nickel and dime us.
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It was a whole much more of a joint venture thing.
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Because in a joint venture, we can ask the question, when do you plan on purchasing this?
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What s your forecast on purchasing and dates?
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Here s where I need to be.
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Here s where I need to be price-wise.
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Here s where I need to be order-wise.
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What do you think?
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It s a total negotiation.
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That s a true partnership.
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And I don t think we get there often enough.
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No.
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No, there s absolute, with absolute, certainly we don t get there.
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And I think it s not difficult to do.
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The first step in that is just to talk about that.
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It s like this goes through all of it.
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When it starts, we don t know each other.
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Our goal is to get to collaborative partnership mode as quick as we can.
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And here s the thing that people miss.
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Being in true good collaborative partnership mode, it s easy to say no.
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Cause I trust you.
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If I bring it, I don t, I ve been friends and for decades and it s, it makes it real easy for, we may not like it, but you know what?
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Bill s going to go, I m just not interested in that.
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No, thanks for me too.
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Cause we had a good part where you can say that to each other versus like some behind the scenes game playing or anything like that.
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Yeah.
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Maybe that s it.
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Maybe that get out of the game, because the gamesmanship is why the forecast doesn t work, too.
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There you go.
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Absolutely.
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Absolutely.
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And we re teaching people gamey things in the sales process.
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That s why the forecast sucks.
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You re a little gamey today, Brian.
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Gamey?
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Feet are gamey.
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Is that what you meant?
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Oh, that s not what I meant, but that s really funny.
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I saw a commercial this morning that I think is good, but it s not relevant.
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What s that topic?
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Maybe I ll tell you another day.
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Well, we ll get them as well.
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It s a female thing, so it s not for guys.
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It s a body deodorant for other places that need deodorant.
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on there.
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Thank you.
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See, told you, told you, you made me go there.
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Anyway, but it s on TV.
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So I m not like talking about a turn.
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It s a, it s a television commercial, which I thought was a little awkward for television.
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Anyway.
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Okay.
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I digress.
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Um, I think we re onto something here.
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I think the, the, when we look at forecasting and it s great, our friends at exactly, they have programs and software that helps all this.
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I think what we re doing on the podcast is we re helping that even more so by looking more upstream and saying, what are we doing or not doing upstream that impacts the accuracy of the forecast down the road.
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How are we in our relationship in a way that allows us to talk about things that maybe if we were different in the relationship, and it was a buyer-seller, and I m trying to convince you, and you re trying to not be convinced, that doesn t lead itself to positive and accurate forecasting.
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When we re in collaboration, we re in partnership, and we re working together,
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That s how we are.
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And I think you can be in that with anybody.
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I don t think that is only large retailers.
SPEAKER_00
I think you can be in that mode with anybody, but you got to get there first.
SPEAKER_01
Yes.
SPEAKER_01
We just had an opportunity come in.
SPEAKER_01
We met with the CEO owner whose name is on the company.
SPEAKER_01
His grandfather started it and their VP of sales.
SPEAKER_01
And if you would have left that meeting, you would have been like, they re going to buy this for sure.
SPEAKER_01
Guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01
That s what you would have thought.
SPEAKER_01
It felt that way.
SPEAKER_01
The next meeting was VP of sales.
SPEAKER_01
Cause the owner said, Hey, I trust this guy.
SPEAKER_01
Anything he wants to do, do the VP of sales.
SPEAKER_01
Second meeting.
SPEAKER_01
Put breaks.
SPEAKER_01
And you know what?
SPEAKER_01
He had a good logical reason for pumping breaks for this program to the point where he sold me.
SPEAKER_01
I m like, you know what?
SPEAKER_01
It s too soon to go in.
SPEAKER_01
Like all in, we need to start small.
SPEAKER_01
Cause he s got a new team.
SPEAKER_01
They did big restructure all that.
SPEAKER_01
It, that to me feels like a really good partnership where our, our revenue on the deal went in, like went down by 90% or more than that.
SPEAKER_01
Like it went down to a 10th of what it was, but it is a start of a great partnership.
SPEAKER_01
which will allow us to grow into the other, you know.
SPEAKER_01
When it s time.
SPEAKER_01
When it s time.
SPEAKER_01
Cause it wasn t time.
SPEAKER_01
That felt really good.
SPEAKER_01
Yeah.
SPEAKER_01
That s really, really great.
SPEAKER_01
That s a really good, good episode.
SPEAKER_00
So good topic.
SPEAKER_01
Okay.
SPEAKER_01
Once again, give us exactly Corp s website.
SPEAKER_01
X A C T L Y C O R P.com.
SPEAKER_01
If you want to plan accurately both your forecasts, more importantly, your commissions and for you sales leaders, if you want to do the same thing, go check out X A C T L Y C O R P.com.
SPEAKER_01
We re going to have a member of their leadership team, Taylor, on here with us in an episode here in a couple of weeks.
SPEAKER_01
Can t wait to hear his take on all this stuff.
SPEAKER_01
Like you, like Bill said, he s going to come on, listen to these three episodes and tell us where we re wrong.
SPEAKER_01
We should probably tell him not to listen to these.
SPEAKER_01
Totally.
SPEAKER_01
Hit him cold for sure.
SPEAKER_01
All right.
SPEAKER_01
Bye.
SPEAKER_01
Later.