A first approach to e-forecasting : a survey of forecasting Web services
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paper_title: E‐business strategy: how to benefit from a hype

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A fundamental approach to setting up an e-business initiative is needed to fully utilise the capabilities of Internet technology in a specific business setting. Such an initiative has to build on the strengths of the organisation and take full advantage of the opportunities in the market, meanwhile identifying costly unsuccessful projects and preventing unwanted market disturbances introduced by carelessly designed e-commerce solutions. In this paper, a method is presented for the development of an e-business, based on research in the area of strategic information systems planning. The proposed method is designed to help clarify a strategic e-business vision and to solicit management commitment to change and take action on new business opportunities. In addition, it takes into account the unique possibilities of an organisation’s IT architecture, thus further advancing the value of past investments in IT.
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paper_title: Experimental comparison of Web, electronic and mail survey technologies in operations management

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Abstract With the growing acceptance of the Web (Internet) and electronic mail, it is no surprise that researchers are using an increasingly diverse set of survey technologies to gather data from managers. However, the effectiveness of these electronic technologies has not been rigorously assessed, especially for gathering data from establishment-level surveys (i.e. firm- or plant-level). To that end, a stratified sample of large and small, service and manufacturing firms was constructed, followed by random assignment to one of four survey technologies: mail, fax, PC disk-by-mail and Web-page survey (combined with e-mail notification). For each treatment, managers are queried about their use of forecasting characteristics, yielding a sample of 118 firms. Unfortunately, only a low percentage (34%) of firms and managers assigned to the Web technology treatment both reported access to e-mail and were willing provide their e-mail addresses; they tended to be large firms and from the service sector. Moreover, those that did offer e-mail addresses were only about half as likely to respond to the Web-based survey as those targeted by other survey technologies. However, Web, fax and disk-by-mail technologies yielded higher item completion rates than mail. Limited statistical evidence indicated that respondents using computer-based survey technologies (i.e. Web or disk-by-mail) generally reported forecasting characteristics that are associated with firms exhibiting best practices. Thus, a multi-technology survey approach using the Web and fax can yield a strong combination of benefits over a traditional mail survey.
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paper_title: Turning innovation into profit

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The generic ‘stage and gate process’ is popularly accepted as a means for managing new product development. It advocates that a development project is divided into a series of pre-defined decision steps in order to balance investment against perceived market risk and return. ::: ::: ::: ::: ::: Its use implies a number of assumptions — first that the product can be characterized as having features and customers benefits; and second that the market for such a product is identifiable. ::: ::: ::: ::: ::: This paper describes a process to assist decision making where these two assumptions do not apply. It provides suggestions to assist in the management and development of innovation and new technology, advocating that a marketing-based perspective of supply-led innovation is adopted. ::: ::: ::: ::: ::: Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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paper_title: Integrating market, technology, and policy opportunities in e-business strategy

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Abstract This article is a call to arms for electronic business managers and researchers to increase their attention to the emerging “policy” frontiers and employ theories and methods integrating policy with market and technology issues. The e-business environment is growing more complex—not just economically, but socially, politically, and legally—and firms must manage this complexity with strategies that match the amount and variety of complexity in their environment. In many e-business firms, there is a notable disdain toward emerging policy developments or even a mind set that e-business is beyond emerging social conventions, politics and the law (or at least beyond the reach of regulators). In the emerging global policy landscape, few firms can afford this hands-off attitude toward policy and maintain their chance of survival. E-business firms must integrate their policy strategies with their technology and market strategies. We outline five broad questions for researchers to help e-business firms address the interdependent challenges of market, technology and policy environments.
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paper_title: There’s no business like e-business

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Seeks to address directly two assumptions that are inherent in current discussions concerning business and the role of technology. First, that business intelligence is, in fact, a feature of the business rather than the staff within that business. Businesses are simply entities with assets and capabilities but no cognitive processes, intelligence is a unique property of humans. Therefore there is a greater need to understand the social processes concerned in order to recognise this resource effectively. Second, that “e‐business” is distinct from “business”. Uses original research in the area of technological innovation as the basis for developing a wider argument with respect to e‐business. Argues that what is currently referred to as e‐business is a relatively poorly developed bundle of technologies that have yet to achieve full application in order to deliver optimum benefit. Also discusses the e‐business phenomenon, the role of technology and the importance of a social perspective of business to give more insightful understanding of the interactions between these areas.
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paper_title: Making enterprises Internet ready: e‐business for process industries

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Discusses the efforts of manufacturing enterprises to make themselves Internet‐ready, to cope with future e‐ business. Changes brought by the Internet will force enterprises to become more agile and responsive. However, the same changes force a need to deploy integrated information systems, and to have business processes in place to facilitate rapid decision‐making, and optimize the extended supply chain by integrating internal business processes with those of business partners. Concludes that e‐business has not yet caused the revolutionary changes in asset‐intensive process industries that it has in information‐based industries.
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paper_title: Sales forecasting for strategic resource planning

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The purpose of this article is twofold. First, the article examines how managers can make more effective use of sales forecasts for strategic resource allocation decisions. Second, the article identifies those research issues in forecasting that must be addressed to better understand the managerial side of forecasting. Managers can improve resource planning by understanding the limitations of forecasts. These limitations are exemplified through several strategic forecasting paradoxes that managers must recognize. The paradoxes suggested here are: first, the most important managerial decisions a company can make are based on the least accurate forecasts; second, the most useful forecast information for resource planning is the least accurate; and, third, the organizations that need the most accurate forecast have the largest forecast error. By recognizing these paradoxes managers can devote their attention to improving the use and implementation of the forecast for better resource decisions. At the same time, future research should focus on broadening the understanding of the role of forecasts in strategic decision making.
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paper_title: The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting

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This paper presents a new univariate forecasting method. The method is based on the concept of modifying the local curvature of the time-series through a coefficient ‘Theta’ (the Greek letter θ), that is applied directly to the second differences of the data. The resulting series that are created maintain the mean and the slope of the original data but not their curvatures. These new time series are named Theta-lines. Their primary qualitative characteristic is the improvement of the approximation of the long-term behavior of the data or the augmentation of the short-term features, depending on the value of the Theta coefficient. The proposed method decomposes the original time series into two or more different Theta-lines. These are extrapolated separately and the subsequent forecasts are combined. The simple combination of two Theta-lines, the Theta=0 (straight line) and Theta=2 (double local curves) was adopted in order to produce forecasts for the 3003 series of the M3 competition. The method performed well, particularly for monthly series and for microeconomic data.
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paper_title: The impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain

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This paper presents a study on the impact of forecasting model selection on the value of information sharing in a supply chain with one capacitated supplier and multiple retailers. Using a computer simulation model, this study examines demand forecasting and inventory replenishment decisions by the retailers, and production decisions by the supplier under different demand patterns and capacity tightness. Analyses of the simulation output indicate that the selection of the forecasting model significantly influences the performance of the supply chain and the value of information sharing. Furthermore, demand patterns faced by retailers and capacity tightness faced by the supplier also significantly influence the value of information sharing. The result also shows that substantial cost savings can be realized through information sharing and thus help to motivate trading partners to share information in the supply chain. The findings can also help supply chain managers select suitable forecasting models to improve supply chain performance.
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paper_title: Forecasting ‐ key to good service at low cost

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Provides a summary of the main reasons for making forecasts, types of forecast and their methods of preparation and interpretation. The transformation of industrial markets from production led to market driven has compelled manufacturers to supply from stock instead of making to order. Demand forecasts prepared in detail are essential if customer expectations (just‐in‐time) are to be met reliably and economically. Since forecasts are always subject to error, buffer stocks or space capacity are needed to guarantee product availability. Short‐term forecasting is usually better done by computer than by humans.
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paper_title: Forecasting: The Key to Managerial Decision Making

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The successful businesses of the future are being created today by individuals and teams in tune with fast‐moving technologies, new markets and changing lifestyles. New disciplines have sprung up, new professions are born and new skills are in demand. There is a need to blend the new skills with those of the older professions. Many business decisions involve forecasting. In recent years its scope has expanded well beyond technical aspects. Addresses a broader set of managerial concerns through down‐to‐earth descriptions of forecasting, its advantages and limitations, and its role in the managerial decision‐making process. Uses a case study to demonstrate the application of a forecasting method.
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paper_title: Forecasting accuracy: comparing the relative effectiveness of practices between seven developed countries

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Abstract This study investigates the effect of forecast practices on forecast error for seven developed countries. The questions it addresses are: What are the differences and similarities between countries in how the forecast is developed and how accurate it is? Does the purpose of the forecast affect its accuracy? Does the use of quantitative techniques improve forecast error? How does the forecaster's use of subjective factors affect forecast accuracy? And are there significant differences in the underlying country's cultural traits that affect these practices? Most forecast empirical studies investigate the degree of accuracy and the quantitative methods used to estimate forecast accuracy ( Mentzler and Cox, 1984 ). However, to date, no study has investigated the cultural variables underlying the forecast variables. These variables are well-known in the international behavioral literature ( Hofstede, 1980 , Hofstede, 1983 , Hofstede, 1994 ; Ronen and Shenkar, 1985 ). This study investigates forecasting practices in Germany, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden and the United States to determine the differences among managerial behaviors that affect forecast accuracy. According to Hofstede (1994), there are distinct cultural differences between countries in terms of power–distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and masculinity/femininity. These cultural differences provide reasons for believing there exists between country differences in: forecast development, how the forecast is used, the degree of use of models, and subjective factors used. This study's results suggest that each country has a different perspective on the basic forecasting development, methods subjective factors considered in the forecast. These differences partially can be explained by Hofstede's four cultural values dimensions: power–distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and masculinity/femininity indices. The statistical analysis suggests that power–distance tends to increase computer use along with statistical methods and decrease the use of internal subjective information. Uncertainty avoidance does not significantly affect forecast procedures. Firms in countries with high individualism tend to rely more heavily on subjective information. Firms in countries that have high masculinity tend to use subjective information to gain an advantage over their competitors. Therefore, the general conclusions are that between country differences in decision-making practices can be partially explained by cultural factors.
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paper_title: 1 Building an Agent-Mediated Electronic Commerce System with Decision Analysis Features

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Abstract This paper describes a web-based electronic commerce system in which customers and merchants delegate the related tasks to their personal software agents. Messages passed between these agents can fully encapsulate the associated parties' points of view towards a market transaction. More specifically, an offer request consists of a list of the product attributes the customer wants to know about, a partial order of their importance, and the constraints imposed. On the other side, an offer proposal can be tailored according to the information conveyed in the corresponding offer request. Advanced features of the system include the permanent existence of our agents in the market, thus being able to learn from it, their ability to act proactively in order to initiate a transaction, and the integration of an interactive multiple criteria decision-making tool, with which a buying agent performs a comparative evaluation of the proposals in a semi-autonomous way.
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Title: A first approach to e-forecasting: a survey of forecasting Web services

Section 1: Introduction
Description 1: Introduce the evolution of enterprise management and the relevance of e-business applications, highlighting the importance of e-forecasting.

Section 2: Forecasting and managerial implications
Description 2: Discuss the significance of accurate forecasting in resource planning and management, and the impact on company operations.

Section 3: The definition
Description 3: Define e-forecasting and explain its basis and functionality using the Internet.

Section 4: The need for e-forecasting
Description 4: Explain why companies need e-forecasting in the context of e-business, focusing on cost and resource efficiency.

Section 5: Main issues
Description 5: Identify key issues related to the implementation and operation of e-forecasting, including data exchange, security, system reliability, and scalability.

Section 6: The framework
Description 6: Describe the categorization of Web services for forecasting, providing various modes of service delivery and user interaction.

Section 7: The findings
Description 7: Present the results of the survey, detailing existing services and their functionalities within the identified categories.

Section 8: Conclusions
Description 8: Summarize the importance of forecasting in business, the transition from traditional to Web-based forecasting, and future research directions.