A Sensor Technology Survey for a Stress-Aware Trading Process
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paper_title: Stock Trading Using RSPOP: A Novel Rough Set-Based Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

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This paper investigates the method of forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data using neuro-fuzzy systems and neural networks. As trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, this paper proposes a novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy stock trading decision model called stock trading using rough set-based pseudo outer-product (RSPOP) which synergizes the price difference forecast method with a forecast bottleneck free trading decision model. The proposed stock trading with forecast model uses the pseudo outer-product based fuzzy neural network using the compositional rule of inference [POPFNN-CRI(S)] with fuzzy rules identified using the RSPOP algorithm as the underlying predictor model and simple moving average trading rules in the stock trading decision model. Experimental results using the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model on real world stock market data are presented. Trading profits in terms of portfolio end values obtained are benchmarked against stock trading with dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) forecast model, the stock trading without forecast model and the stock trading with ideal forecast model. Experimental results showed that the proposed model identified rules with greater interpretability and yielded significantly higher profits than the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model and the stock trading without forecast model
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paper_title: TRADER: an expert system for trading commodities futures

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An expert system is described, written in PROLOG, for trading commodities futures. The system uses a blackboard architecture to develop a set of confidence factors for buying and selling futures. It also has an elaborate user interface, which displays the technical studies that its decisions are based on in graphical form and provides feedback to the user on its decisions. This interface played a major role in the knowledge acquisition phase of the project. The program is a real-time system using tick data provided by Tick Data Inc. of Chicago, IL. It has been extensively tested on historical data with encouraging results; the authors are refining the confidence factor computation and adding a training aspect to the program. >
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paper_title: Expert Trading Systems: Modeling Financial Markets with Kernel Regression

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From the Publisher: ::: With the proliferation of computer programs to predict market direction, professional traders and sophisticated individual investors have increasingly turned to mathematical modeling to develop predictive systems. Kernel regression is a popular data modeling technique that can yield useful results fast. ::: Provides data modeling methodology used to develop trading systems. * Shows how to design, test, and measure the significance of results ::: John R. Wolberg (Haifa, Israel) is professor of mechanical engineering at the Haifa Institute in Israel. He does research and consulting in data modeling in the financial services area.
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paper_title: Acute Stress Modulates Risk Taking in Financial Decision

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People's decisions are often susceptible to var- ious demands exerted by the environment, leading to stressful conditions. Although a goal for researchers is to elucidate stress-coping mechanisms to facilitate decision- making processes, it is important to first understand the interaction between the state created by a stressful envi- ronment and how decisions are performed in such envi- ronments. The objective of this experiment was to probe the impact of exposure to acute stress on financial decision making and examine the particular influence of stress on decisions with a positive or negative valence. Participants' choices exhibited a stronger reflection effect when partic- ipants were under stress than when they were in the no- stress control phase. This suggests that stress modulates risk taking, potentially exacerbating behavioral bias in subsequent decision making. Consistent with dual-process approaches, decision makers fall back on automatized reactions to risk under the influence of disruptive stress.
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paper_title: Developing Actionable Trading Strategies for Trading Agents

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Trading agents are useful for developing and back-testing quality trading strategies for taking actions in the real world. The existing trading agent research mainly focuses on simulation using artificial data. As a result, the actionable capability of developed trading strategies is often limited, and the trading agents therefore lack power. Actionable trading strategies can empower trading agents with workable decisionmaking in real-life markets. The development of actionable strategies is a non-trivial task, which needs to consider real-life constraints and organisational factors in the market. In this talk, we first analyse such constraints on developing actionable trading strategies for trading agents and propose a trading strategy development framework for trading agents. We then develop a series of trading strategies for trading agents through optimising, enhancing and discovering actionable trading strategies. We demonstrate working case studies using agent mining technology in real market data. These approaches, and their performance, are evaluated from both technical and business perspectives. These evalualtions clearly show that the development of trading strategies for trading agents, using our approach, can lead to smart decisions for brokerage firms and financial companies.
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paper_title: Judgment and decision making under stress: an overview for emergency managers

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This paper discusses human judgment and decision making under stress. The authors review selected recent literature across various disciplines and suggest a definition of stress within the context of decision making during the management of emergencies. They also discuss fieldwork by the Pittsburgh Research Laboratory, NIOSH, which explores traumatic incident stress, the relationship between previous training and performance under stressful conditions, and human behaviour in underground mine fires. The authors assert that stress is one of the factors that decision makers must contend with in most life-or-death situations. They suggest that a better understanding of individual judgment and decision making activities whilst under stress would yield a better understanding of how people reach the choices they make in emergencies. This enhanced understanding would be of enormous value to emergency managers, researchers and policymakers.
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paper_title: Theoretical and empirical examination of cognitive resource theory.

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Two assumptions and seven hypotheses defining Fiedler and Garcia's (1987) cognitive resource theory are critiqued and examined with data from 48 four-man groups. Information for leaders and subordinates was available on the dimensions of IQ, directiveness, group atmosphere, rank, and group performance on seven tasks
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paper_title: Finance organizations, decisions and emotions

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Analyses of global financial markets are dominated by atomized models of decision-making and behavioural psychology (‘exuberance’ or ‘panic’). In contrast, this paper argues that overwhelmingly, finance organizations rather than ‘individuals’ make decisions, and routinely use emotions in formulating expectations. Keynes introduced emotion (business confidence and animal spirits) but in economics, emotion remains individualistic and irrational. Luhmann's system theory lies at the other extreme, where emotions like trust and confidence are central variables, functional in the reduction of complexity in sub-systems like the economy. The gap between irrational emotions aggregated to ‘herd’ behaviour in economics, and ‘system trust’ applied to finance and money as a ‘medium of communication’ in sociology, remains largely unfilled. This paper argues that while organizations cannot be said to ‘think’ or ‘feel’, they are rational and emotional, because impersonal trust, confidence and their contrary emotions are unavoidable in decision-making due to fundamental uncertainty. These future-oriented emotions are prevalent within and between organizations in the financial sector, primarily in generating expectations. The dynamic of corporate activities of tense and ruthless struggle is a more plausible level of analysis than either financial ‘manias’ in aggregate or ‘system trust’.
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paper_title: The effects of time pressure and completeness of information on decision making

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The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has developed a simulation system to train its top commanders in how to use defensive resources in the face of an aerial attack by enemy combat aircraft. During the simulation session, the commander in charge allocates airborne and standby resources and dispatches or diverts aircraft to intercept intruders. Seventy-four simulation sessions were conducted in order to examine the effects of time pressure and completeness of information on the performance of twenty-nine top IAF commanders. Variables examined were: (1) display of complete versus incomplete information, (2) time-constrained decision making versus unlimited decision time, and (3) the difference in performance between top strategic commanders and mid-level field commanders.Our results show that complete information usually improved performance. However, field commanders (as opposed to top strategic commanders) did not improve their performance when presented with complete information under pressure of time. Time pressure usually, but not always, impaired performance. Top commanders tended to make fewer changes in previous decisions than did field commanders.
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paper_title: The role of emotion in decision-making: Evidence from neurological patients with orbitofrontal damage

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Abstract Most theories of choice assume that decisions derive from an assessment of the future outcomes of various options and alternatives through some type of cost-benefit analyses. The influence of emotions on decision-making is largely ignored. The studies of decision-making in neurological patients who can no longer process emotional information normally suggest that people make judgments not only by evaluating the consequences and their probability of occurring, but also and even sometimes primarily at a gut or emotional level. Lesions of the ventromedial (which includes the orbitofrontal) sector of the prefrontal cortex interfere with the normal processing of “somatic” or emotional signals, while sparing most basic cognitive functions. Such damage leads to impairments in the decision-making process, which seriously compromise the quality of decisions in daily life. The aim of this paper is to review evidence in support of “The Somatic Marker Hypothesis,” which provides a systems-level neuroanatomical and cognitive framework for decision-making and suggests that the process of decision-making depends in many important ways on neural substrates that regulate homeostasis, emotion, and feeling. The implications of this theoretical framework for the normal and abnormal development of the orbitofrontal cortex are also discussed.
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paper_title: Modeling Human Error in a Real-World Teamwork Environment

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Modeling Human Error in a Real-World Teamwork Environment Stephen Deutsch (sdeutsch@bbn.com) BBN Technologies, 10 Moulton Street Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Richard Pew (pew@bbn.com) BBN Technologies, 10 Moulton Street Cambridge, MA 02138 USA Abstract An initial model of human error in a real-world teamwork environment has been developed. The captain and first officer of a commercial aircraft and the air traffic controllers with whom they interact are modeled as the crew executes an approach and landing followed by taxi operations that take them to their assigned gate. Scenario details and human model development were based on the results of a series of full-task simulation experiments using commercial pilots as subjects. The focus of the experiment was on errors committed by the aircrews during taxi operations. The models developed exhibit the robust behaviors typically exhibited by aircrews and identify psychologically grounded windows for error within that robust behavior. Human Error Modeling Applied to Taxi Operations NASA Ames Research Center conducted two full-mission studies of airport taxi operations under low visibility and night conditions. The subject of the studies was the Taxiway Navigation and Situation Awareness (T-NASA) system, aircraft flight deck technology designed to improve commercial airport taxi operations in poor weather while maintaining a high degree of safety (Hooey, Foyle, & Andre, 2000). The T-NASA system includes a head-up display, a head-down electronic moving map display, and directional audio alerts. The studies included a series of baseline trials run without the T-NASA system and a series of trials using various configurations of the T-NASA system. The T-NASA system effectively eliminated very nearly all error, hence the focus of the human error modeling effort was on the baseline trials. The NASA Ames Advanced Concept Flight Simulator (ACFS) used in the studies provided a generic glass cockpit simulator with a 180-degree field of view and a high fidelity rendering of Chicago O’Hare Airport replicating the airport layout including runways, taxiways, signage, painted markings, lights, concourses, and structures (Hooey & Foyle, 2001). In the first study, 16 two-pilot commercial crews each completed six land and taxi-to-gate trials based on current operations using Jeppesen charts for navigation. Half of the trials were under low visibility conditions with runway visual range (RVR) of 700 feet, and half under night visual meteorological conditions (VMC). In the second study, 18 commercial two-pilot crews each completed three land and taxi-to-gate trials based on current operating conditions under 1000 foot RVR conditions. In evaluating these studies, Hooey and Foyle (2001) defined navigation errors as taxiing on a portion of the airport surface on which the aircraft had not been cleared and deviating from their cleared centerline by at least 50 feet. Their analysis revealed 26 navigation errors in 150 current-operation trials—errors were committed on 17.3% of the trials. Modeling Robust Nominal Performance as a Prelude to Modeling Error As we set out to identify the sources of error (c.f., Deutsch & Pew, 2001) and then to model error in taxi procedures, we started by refining earlier Distributed Operator Model Architecture (D-OMAR) models (Deutsch, 1998; Deutsch & Adams, 1995) that captured the robustness in aircrew procedures. The models represent the multiple task behaviors of each player as the product of a mix of goals and procedures that operate concurrently to proactively address the player’s agenda. Expectations integrate anticipated events while anticipated or unanticipated interruptions must be accommodated. Ongoing tasks determine their own execution times and run to completion unless another procedure defined as a competing procedure with greater priority intervenes. A mix of automatic and thoughtful behaviors are modeled without resorting to a central executive responsible for explicitly scheduling all future actions. A thoughtful cognitive act of decision- making is defined as just that, another procedure that determines the action to follow. The NASA Information to Modelers package included a Nominal Task Sequence (NASA, 2001a) for the T-NASA baseline conditions. This was used as the basis for the development of the approach-and-landing and taxi procedures that the models of the captain, first officers, and air traffic controllers employed. Approach-and-landing is one of the busiest phases of flight, making high demands on the aircrew. In spite of the high demands of getting the aircraft safely on the ground, it is also the time at which the first steps in the subsequent taxi operations are initiated. The crew is in the process of approaching a given runway and already know the concourse and gate toward which they will be heading. Moreover, as specified in the Nominal Task Sequence, at about eleven miles out they discuss with the air traffic controller and among themselves which runway exit
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paper_title: The emotional brain

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What happens in our brains to make us feel fear, love, hate, anger, joy? Do we control our emotions, or do they control us? Do animals have emotions? How can traumatic experiences in early childhood influence adult behavior, even though we have no conscious memory of them? In , Joseph LeDoux investigates the origins of human emotions and explains that many exist as part of complex neural systems that evolved to enable us to survive. The Emotional Brain
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paper_title: Relationship of life stress and body consciousness to hypervigilant decision making.

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I. L. Janis and L. Mann's (1977) model was used to study the relationship of naturally occurring life stress and private body consciousness (PBC; L. Miller, R. Murphy, & A. Buss, 1981) to decision making. Students (N=61) performed an analogies task developed by G. Keinan (1987). Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that performance quality could be explained byaversive life event stress, PBC, state anxiety, and their interaction. The greater the state anxiety, the poorer the performance. For low PBC individuals there was little relationship between life stress and decision quality or strategies
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paper_title: Cognitive biases and time stress in team decision making

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This experiment investigates the impart of time stress on the decision making performance of command and control teams. Two person teams were trained to execute a set of simple decision procedures. Some of these procedures required subjects to make judgments that were inconsistent with normal heuristic decision processing. The principal hypothesis was that these decision procedures would be vulnerable-to-bias, and would therefore be more vulnerable to the effects of time stress than other decision procedures. The results support this hypothesis. In addition, the results suggest that the subjects adapted inappropriately to time stress. As time stress increased, they began to use a decision processing strategy that was less effective than the strategy they were trained to use.
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paper_title: Probability judgment and subadditivity: The role of working memory capacity and constraining retrieval

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In this research, we examined the role that individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity, the strength of alternatives, and time constraints play in probability judgment and subadditivity. With a laboratory-based learning task, Experiment 1 revealed that the degree to which participants’ probability judgments were subadditive was negatively correlated with a measure of WM capacity, even when variance due to short-term memory capacity was removed. In addition, participants were more subadditive when the viable alternatives were all rather weak. Experiment 2 extended the WM-capacity-subadditivity correlation to a population judgment task and revealed that subadditivity increases when the judgment task is performed under time constraints. Results support a model that assumes that people make probability judgments by comparing the focal hypothesis with relevant alternatives retrieved from long-term memory and that people high in WM span include more alternatives in the comparison process. Time constraints are assumed to truncate the alternative generation process, leading to fewer alternatives being recalled from long-term memory.
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paper_title: The Hassled Decision Maker: The Effects of Perceived Time Pressure on Information Processing in Decision Making

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Managers are often required to make complex decisions under severe time constraints. We predicted that the perception of time pressure, even when there is sufficient time to make a decision, may impair decision making activity. A pilot study and two experiments were conducted on a sample of 162 university students, who were assigned to a time-pressure condition or a no time-pressure condition. In support of the prediction, time-pressured students generated fewer objectives and alternatives and considered fewer consequences. The â€œhassled decision makerâ€ effect may be due to: the disruptive effects of psychological stress; the need for rapid cognitive closure; interruptions due to continual monitoring of time and deadlines; and, resentment at the demand to work quickly. Implications of the findings for management practice are discussed.
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paper_title: Traces of fatigue in an attention task

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The present study is one in a series undertaken to analyze the influence of physical fatigue on a visual perception task. Thirty minutes after being exhausted on a bicycle ergometer, 20 subjects executed a visual perception task involving tachistoscopically presented random groups of 3 to 12 dots. The subjects responded by reporting the number of dots, and their response times were measured. Under the influence of fatigue, the number of correct responses decreased, especially for the larger groups of dots. No significant differences in response times were found between fatigued and nonfatigued subjects. We conclude that fatigued subjects avoid attention that demands controlled processing and tend to adhere to uniform automatic processing.
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paper_title: Development of categorization and reasoning in the natural world: Novices to experts, naive similarity to ecological knowledge

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Two experiments investigate the role of similarity and causal– ecological knowledge in expert and novice categorization and reasoning. In Experiment 1, university undergraduates and commercial fishermen sorted marine creatures into groups; although there was substantial agreement, novices sorted largely on the basis of appearance, whereas experts often cited commercial, ecological, or behavioral factors, and systematically subdivided fish on the basis of ecological niche. In Experiment 2, experts and novices were asked to generalize a blank property or novel disease from a pair of marine creatures. Novices relied on similarity to guide generalizations. Experts used similarity to reason about blank properties but ecological relations to reason about diseases. Expertise appears to involve knowledge of multiple
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paper_title: How Positive Affect Modulates Cognitive Control: Reduced Perseveration at the Cost of Increased Distractibility

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A fundamental problem that organisms face in a changing environment is how to regulate dynamically the balance between stable maintenance and flexible switching of goals and cognitive sets. The authors show that positive affect plays an important role in the regulation of this stability–flexibility balance. In a cognitive set-switching paradigm, the induction of mild increases in positive affect, as compared with neutral or negative affect, promoted cognitive flexibility and reduced perseveration, but also incurred a cost in terms of increased distractibility. Rather than influencing set switching in an unspecific way, positive affect thus exerted opposite effects on perseveration and distractibility. Results are consistent with neuropsychological models according to which effects of positive affect on cognitive control are mediated by increased dopamine levels in frontal brain areas.
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paper_title: The Causal Role of Fatigue in the Stress-Perceived Health Relationship: A MetroNet Study

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BACKGROUND ::: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 4 primary care MetroNet centers in metropolitan Detroit. Our objective was to describe the causal role of fatigue in the relationship among stress, stress resiliency, and perceived health in primary care. Fatigue is a public health problem that has been linked to stress and poor health. The causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health is unknown. ::: ::: ::: METHODS ::: Four hundred surveys were distributed to adult patients in 4 primary care centers in metropolitan Detroit between 2006 and 2007. Internal consistency reliabilities and principal factor analyses were calculated for the key psychological scales. Perceived health is the primary outcome. Path models were used to study the relationship among stress, fatigue, and perceived health. We also modeled the impact of select stress resiliency factors including sleep, recovery, and social support. ::: ::: ::: RESULTS ::: Of the 400 distributed surveys, 315 (78.7%) had a response rate of 70% or more and were included in the analysis. Respondents were predominantly middle aged (median age, 43 years); female (58.7%); and African American (52.0%). The majority worked full time (56.5%); did not have a college degree (77.7%); and were not married (55.2%). Fatigue was reported by 59% of respondents, 42.7% of which was unexplained. The path model supported the causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health. The positive effects of sleep, recovery, and social support on fatigue, stress, and perceived health were validated. ::: ::: ::: CONCLUSION ::: Fatigue was common in this metropolitan primary care environment and completely mediated the relationship between stress and poor perceived health. Therefore, stress, when significant enough to cause fatigue, may lead to poor health.
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paper_title: Pilot Ability to Anticipate the Consequences of Flight Actions as a Function of Expertise

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Situation awareness (SA) is a term that refers to aviators' and air traffic controllers' characterization of incidents and accidents as being caused by a failure to develop and maintain awareness of the flight situation. This article reports on a study of pilot ability to anticipate consequences of actions, and how this ability changes with experience. In this research, anticipating the consequences of actions on future flight status was assumed to constitute one component of the complex cognitive, perceptual, and motor events that together constitute piloting skill. The study included novice and expert pilots who completed trials in which 3 screens depicted a control movement (or movements), a cockpit flight situation, or a change in flight situation. Pilots indicated whether the depicted change was inconsistent or consistent with their expectations. The accuracy results suggest that pilots' access to mental models is superior to their access for situation models and that experts are more sensitive to inconsistent change than are novices. Overall, both groups of pilots showed performance advantages in trials with interacting control movements. The authors conclude that expert ability to organize information into meaningful units appears to facilitate future flight state projections.
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paper_title: Decision making with the "adaptive toolbox": Influence of environmental structure, intelligence, and working memory load.

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In 2 experiments with a total of 220 participants, the tendency to use simple heuristics such as the take the best heuristic in an adaptive manner was investigated. In a simulated stock market paradigm, the payoff structure of environments was varied, favoring either compensatory or noncompensatory decision strategies in terms of expected long-term payoff. In both experiments, the majority of participants were classified as using strategies that were adequate for the environment, supporting the notion of adaptive strategy selection. These strategy shifts were moderated by intelligence, as measured with common tests. Neither an additional learning phase (Experiment 1) nor working memory load or working memory capacity (Experiment 2) had additional effects on strategy selection.
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paper_title: Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox

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In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
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paper_title: Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart

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Thank you very much for reading simple heuristics that make us smart. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have look hundreds times for their favorite books like this simple heuristics that make us smart, but end up in infectious downloads. Rather than reading a good book with a cup of tea in the afternoon, instead they are facing with some harmful virus inside their laptop. simple heuristics that make us smart is available in our digital library an online access to it is set as public so you can download it instantly. Our books collection hosts in multiple countries, allowing you to get the most less latency time to download any of our books like this one. Merely said, the simple heuristics that make us smart is universally compatible with any devices to read.
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paper_title: Decision making under stress: scanning of alternatives under controllable and uncontrollable threats.

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This study tested the proposition that deficient decision making under stress is due, to a significant extent, to the individual's failure to fulfill adequately an elementary requirement of the decision-making process, that is, the systematic consideration of all relevant alternatives. One hundred one undergraduate students (59 women and 42 men), aged 20-40, served as subjects in this experiment. They were requested to solve decision problems, using an interactive computer paradigm, while being exposed to controllable stress, uncontrollable stress, or no stress at all. There was no time constraint for the performance of the task. The controllability of the stressor was found to have no effect on the participants' performance. However, those who were exposed to either controllable or uncontrollable stress showed a significantly stronger tendency to offer solutions before all available alternatives had been considered and to scan their alternatives in a nonsystematic fashion than did participants who were not exposed to stress. In addition, patterns of alternative scanning were found to be correlated with the correctness of solutions to decision problems.
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paper_title: Selective interpretation in anxiety: Uncertainty for threatening events

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The role of event uncertainty on inferences predictive of threat was investigated in high and low trait anxious individuals. Participants read context sentences predicting threat or nonthreat outcomes. They subsequently named target words that were consistent with or unrelated to prediction. In Experiment 1, with predictability relatively low, anxious participants showed clear threat bias in their inferences: Although nonthreat targets were unaffected by context, shorter naming latencies were found for threat target words that followed a threat predicting context. A low anxiety group showed an opposite effect, that is, facilitation only for nonthreat words, suggesting an avoidance (of threat) bias. In Experiment 2, under higher predictability, this bias disappeared, as both high and low anxious groups performed similarly. The relevance of these data for different models of selective processing in anxiety is discussed. Of particular pertinence is the finding that, with increasing stimulus threat, low anxio...
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paper_title: Rationality and Psychology in International Politics

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The ubiquitous yet inaccurate belief in international relations scholarship that cognitive biases and emotion cause only mistakes distorts the field's understanding of the relationship between rationality and psychology in three ways. If psychology explains only mistakes (or deviations from rationality), then (1) rationality must be free of psychology; (2) psychological explanations require rational baselines; and (3) psychology cannot explain accurate judgments. This view of the relationship between rationality and psychology is coherent and logical, but wrong. Although undermining one of these three beliefs is sufficient to undermine the others, I address each belief—or myth—in turn. The point is not that psychological models should replace rational models, but that no single approach has a lock on understanding rationality. In some important contexts (such as in strategic choice) or when using certain concepts (such as trust, identity, justice, or reputation), an explicitly psychological approach to rationality may beat a rationalist one. I thank Deborah Avant, James Caporaso, James Davis, Bryan Jones, Margaret Levi, Peter Liberman, Lisa Martin, Susan Peterson, Jason Scheideman, Jack Snyder, Michael Taylor, two anonymous reviewers, and especially Robert Jervis and Elizabeth Kier for their thoughtful comments and critiques. Jason Scheideman also helped with research assistance.
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paper_title: Assessing the empirical validity of the "Take-The-Best" heuristic as a model of human probabilistic inference

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The boundedly rational Take-The-Best heuristic (TTB) was proposed by G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, and H. Kleinbolting (1991) as a model of fast and frugal probabilistic inferences. Although the simple lexicographic rule proved to be successful in computer simulations, direct empirical demonstrations of its adequacy as a psychological model are lacking because of several methodical problems. In 4 experiments with a total of 210 participants, this question was addressed. Whereas Experiment 1 showed that TTB is not valid as a universal hypothesis about probabilistic inferences, up to 28% of participants in Experiment 2 and 53% of participants in Experiment 3 were classified as TTB users. Experiment 4 revealed that investment costs for information seem to be a relevant factor leading participants to switch to a noncompensatory TTB strategy. The observed individual differences in strategy use imply the recommendation of an idiographic approach to decision-making research.
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paper_title: IPRA — ENHANCING THE SENSING ABILITIES OF AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE

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The ability of ambient intelligence to serve a person could be considerably enhanced, if intelligent devices would take into account the person's current cognitive and affective state. One primary source for state information are physiological measures. However, obtaining state information requires concertedly employing a multitude of different techniques. To facilitate the use of physiological signals as sources of state information and thereby allow improving ambient intelligence, we developed Ipra, an integrated pattern recognition approach which (a) employs all techniques necessary to appropriately analyze physiological data, (b) is broadly applicable, and (c) is easy to use even for nonexperts. This approach together with results of its first application are presented in this contribution.
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paper_title: Social neuroscience: Autonomic, neuroendocrine, and immune responses to stress

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The immune system is influenced by central nervous system processes that are shaped by social and psychological factors. Considerations of social factors, intrapersonal processes, and autonomic psychophysiology therefore may contribute to a fuller understanding of both immune and brain function. Research reviewed here (a) examines the socioemotional factors that contribute to, or moderate, responses to brief and chronic stressors, (b) determines whether or not stable individual differences in heart rate reactivity predict neuroendocrine and immune responses to a brief psychological stressor and to an influenza virus vaccine, and (c) investigates the autonomic origins of individual differences in low and high heart rate reactivity and their relationship to neuroendocrine and immune responses to chronic and acute stressors. Among our findings are: (a) acute psychological stressors activate the sympathetic adrenomedullary system across individuals and affect immune function; and (b) individuals characterized by high sympathetic cardiac reactivity to acute psychological stressors also show a relative activation of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenocortical system and altered immune function.
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paper_title: Convenient evaluation of mental stress with pupil diameter.

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This study proposes a convenient method of evaluating mental stress. The potential of monitoring changes in pupil diameter as a measure of human reliability while operating human-machine systems was examined experimentally. An experiment was carried out to clarify the relation between changes in pupil diameter and autonomic nervous activity by measuring an electrocardiogram and pupil diameter when 10 subjects completed a time-sensitive task. The electrocardiogram was measured using a multitelemeter system and pupil diameter was measured using an eye-mark recorder. Several relationships between changes in pupil diameter and autonomic nervous activity were revealed and indicated that measurement of pupil diameter was an effective indicator of autonomic nervous activity. Therefore, it may be possible to develop a monitoring system that measures changes in pupil diameter as an indicator of the mental state of workers operating human-machine systems.
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paper_title: Psychobiologic reactivity to stress and childhood respiratory illnesses: results of two prospective studies.

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Psychological stress is thought to undermine host resistance to infection through neuroendocrine-mediated changes in immune competence. Associations between stress and infection have been modest in magnitude, however, suggesting individual variability in stress response. We therefore studied environmental stressors, psychobiologic reactivity to stress, and respiratory illness incidence in two studies of 236 preschool children. In Study 1, 137 3- to 5-year-old children from four childcare centers underwent a laboratory-based assessment of cardiovascular reactivity (changes in heart rate and mean arterial pressure) during a series of developmentally challenging tasks. Environmental stress was evaluated with two measures of stressors in the childcare setting. The incidence of respiratory illnesses was ascertained over 6 months using weekly respiratory tract examinations by a nurse. In Study 2, 99 5-year-old children were assessed for immune reactivity (changes in CD4+, CD8+, and CD19+ cell numbers, lymphocyte mitogenesis, and antibody response to pneumococcal vaccine) during the normative stressor of entering school. Blood for immune measures was sampled 1 week before and after kindergarten entry. Environmental stress was indexed with parent reports of family stressors, and a 12-week respiratory illness incidence was measured with biweekly, parent-completed symptom checklists. The two studies produced remarkably similar findings. Although environmental stress was not independently associated with respiratory illnesses in either study, the incidence of illness was related to an interaction between child care stress and mean arterial pressure reactivity (beta = .35, p < .05) in Study 1 and to an interaction between stressful life events and CD19+ reactivity (beta = .51, p < .05) in Study 2.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
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paper_title: A new mental stress detection method using biosignals under visual search tasks

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A method of analyzing dual biosignals (finger plentysmogram (FP) and respiration) to determine mental stress is proposed. Experiments using visual search tasks confirm that the 0.1 Hz frequency component of the second component signal generated by principal component analysis (PCA) provides a strong correlation to stress levels.
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paper_title: Emotion recognition in speech using neural networks

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Emotion recognition in speech is a topic on which little research has been done to date. In this paper, we discuss why emotion recognition in speech is an interesting and applicable research topic and present a system for emotion recognition using one-class-in-one neural networks. By using a large database of phoneme balanced words, our system is speaker and context independent. We achieve a recognition rate of approximately 50% when testing eight emotions.
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paper_title: Looking at pictures: Affective, facial, visceral, and behavioral reactions

paper_content:

Colored photographic pictures that varied widely across the affective dimensions of valence (pleasant-unpleasant) and arousal (excited-calm) were each viewed for a 6-s period while facial electromyographic (zygomatic and corrugator muscle activity) and visceral (heart rate and skin conductance) reactions were measured. Judgments relating to pleasure, arousal, interest, and emotional state were measured, as was choice viewing time. Significant covariation was obtained between (a) facial expression and affective valence judgments and (b) skin conductance magnitude and arousal ratings. Interest ratings and viewing time were also associated with arousal. Although differences due to the subject's gender and cognitive style were obtained, affective responses were largely independent of the personality factors investigated. Response specificity, particularly facial expressiveness, supported the view that specific affects have unique patterns of reactivity. The consistency of the dimensional relationships between evaluative judgments (i.e., pleasure and arousal) and physiological response, however, emphasizes that emotion is fundamentally organized by these motivational parameters.
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paper_title: Human expression recognition from motion using a radial basis function network architecture

paper_content:

In this paper a radial basis function network architecture is developed that learns the correlation of facial feature motion patterns and human expressions. We describe a hierarchical approach which at the highest level identifies expressions, at the mid level determines motion of facial features, and at the low level recovers motion directions. Individual expression networks were trained to recognize the "smile" and "surprise" expressions. Each expression network was trained by viewing a set of sequences of one expression for many subjects. The trained neural network was then tested for retention, extrapolation, and rejection ability. Success rates were 88% for retention, 88% for extrapolation, and 83% for rejection.
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paper_title: Bimodal emotion recognition

paper_content:

This paper describes the use of statistical techniques and hidden Markov models (HMM) in the recognition of emotions. The method aims to classify 6 basic emotions (anger, dislike, fear, happiness, sadness and surprise) from both facial expressions (video) and emotional speech (audio). The emotions of 2 human subjects were recorded and analyzed. The findings show that the audio and video information can be combined using a rule-based system to improve the recognition rate.
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paper_title: Analysis of skin-temperature variability compared to variability of blood pressure and heart rate

paper_content:

High resolution skin-temperature measurement performed in normal human subjects and in patients with coronary artery disease revealed low-amplitude temperature oscillations (40/spl times/10/sup -3//spl deg/C) designated as 'Temperature Variability' (TV). Spectral analysis of the filtered signal showed that most of the energy was in the range 0.015-0.04 Hz. Power spectra of temperature variability and pulse pressure amplitude were compared. Both of the signals exhibited similar peak frequency and similar stress-related response. Stress-related changes of TV power spectrum were similar to-changes of power in the spectrum of heart rate variability in the same frequency range. The TV signal showed greater sensitivity to stress than mean temperature. The TV phenomenon was attributed to vasomotor activity primarily mediated by sympathetic tone. In patients with coronary artery disease TV magnitude during baseline and stress was significantly lower than in normal subjects.
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paper_title: Toward Machine Emotional Intelligence: Analysis of Affective Physiological State

paper_content:

The ability to recognize emotion is one of the hallmarks of emotional intelligence, an aspect of human intelligence that has been argued to be even more important than mathematical and verbal intelligences. This paper proposes that machine intelligence needs to include emotional intelligence and demonstrates results toward this goal: developing a machine's ability to recognize the human affective state given four physiological signals. We describe difficult issues unique to obtaining reliable affective data and collect a large set of data from a subject trying to elicit and experience each of eight emotional states, daily, over multiple weeks. This paper presents and compares multiple algorithms for feature-based recognition of emotional state from this data. We analyze four physiological signals that exhibit problematic day-to-day variations: The features of different emotions on the same day tend to cluster more tightly than do the features of the same emotion on different days. To handle the daily variations, we propose new features and algorithms and compare their performance. We find that the technique of seeding a Fisher Projection with the results of sequential floating forward search improves the performance of the Fisher Projection and provides the highest recognition rates reported to date for classification of affect from physiology: 81 percent recognition accuracy on eight classes of emotion, including neutral.
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paper_title: Endogenous steroids and financial risk taking on a London trading floor

paper_content:

Little is known about the role of the endocrine system in financial risk taking. Here, we report the findings of a study in which we sampled, under real working conditions, endogenous steroids from a group of male traders in the City of London. We found that a trader's morning testosterone level predicts his day's profitability. We also found that a trader's cortisol rises with both the variance of his trading results and the volatility of the market. Our results suggest that higher testosterone may contribute to economic return, whereas cortisol is increased by risk. Our results point to a further possibility: testosterone and cortisol are known to have cognitive and behavioral effects, so if the acutely elevated steroids we observed were to persist or increase as volatility rises, they may shift risk preferences and even affect a trader's ability to engage in rational choice.
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paper_title: Stress Reduction by Technology? An Experimental Study into the Effects of Brainmachines on Burnout and State Anxiety

paper_content:

Stress and burnout are widely acknowledged as major causes of societal and individual problems in the Western world. In order to reduce material and immaterial expenses, increased efforts are made to enhance relaxation and stress reduction. Based on neuropsychological findings, alternative ways have been explored, one of them being the application of so-called brain wave synchronizers, which are said to induce a relaxation response by entraining alpha brain-wave activity (8‐13 Hz) through audiovisual stimulation. A double blind, quasi-experiment was conducted among employees at a Dutch addiction care center to investigate the possible effects of two distinct brainmachine programs on burnout and anxiety. Subjects in both conditions showed a significant, immediate decrease in state anxiety as assessed by Spielberger’s State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and reported a range of subjective effects. However, a long-term effect on burnout, as measured with Maslach’s Burnout Inventory (MBI-NL), could not be established. A long-term effect on anxiety (STAI), as investigated by interrupted time-series measurement, could not be established either. These and other findings suggest that the major claims with respect to these machines cannot hold over time, although pleasant short-term effects do occur. Individual differences in baseline responsivity, the stable character of burnout dimensions, or the ill-defined nature of relaxation, or a combination of these, may account for these results.
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paper_title: Quantifying Driver Stress: Developing a System for Collecting and Processing Bio-Metric Signals in Natural Situations

paper_content:

A system for quantifying the physiological features of emotional stress is being developed for use during a driving task. Two prototypes, using sensors that measure the driver's skin conductance, respiration, muscle activity, and heart activity are presented. The first system allows sampling rates of 200 Hz on two fast channels and 20 Hz on six additional channels. It uses a wearable computer to do real-time processing on the signals and has an attached digital camera which was used to capture images of the driver's facial expression once every minute. The second system uses a car-based computer that allows a sampling rate of 1984 samples per second on eight channels. This system uses multiple video cameras to continuously capture the driver's facial expression and road conditions. The data is then synchronized with the physiological signals using a video quad-splitter. The methods for extracting physiological features in the driving environment are discussed, including measurement of the skin conductance orienting response, muscle activity, pulse, and respiration patterns. Preliminary studies show how using multiple modalities of sensors can help discriminate reactions to driving events and how individual's response to similar driving conditions can vary from day to day.
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paper_title: Abnormal Psychology: An Integrative Approach

paper_content:

Balancing biological, psychological, social and cultural approaches, David Barlow and V. Mark Durand's ground-breaking integrative approach is the most modern, scientifically valid method for studying abnormal psychology. In this Fourth Edition of their proven ABNORMAL PSYCHOLOGY, Barlow and Durand successfully blend sophisticated research (including new prevention coverage) and an accessible writing style with the most widely recognized method of discussing psychopathology. Going beyond simply describing different schools of thought on psychological disorders, the authors explore the interactions of the various forces that contribute to psychopathology. A conversational writing style, consistent pedagogical elements, integrated case studies (95 percent from authors' own files), video clips of clients (on the free accompanying Abnormal Psychology Live CD-ROM), and additional study tools make this text the most complete learning resource available. For instructors, an Instructor's Resource Manual, Test Bank, and a wide selection of videos are available to use when teaching the course. See below for details.
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paper_title: Trading Costs and the Trading Systems for Nasdaq Stocks

paper_content:

The impact of institutional- and individual-investor-oriented trading systems on the liquidity and volatility of Nasdaq stocks has been the subject of much controversy. Bid–ask spreads for the most actively traded Nasdaq stocks have increased sharply during the past decade. The widening of spreads is statistically explained by increases in institutional ownership and trading. In contrast, the evidence does not show that individual-oriented trading systems have been associated with adverse effects on liquidity, even though such effects have been alleged.
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paper_title: Organisational usability of mobile computing-Volatility and control in mobile foreign exchange trading

paper_content:

The past two decades have presented significant technological developments of mobile information and communication technology (ICT) such as portable technologies (e.g. mobile phones, notebook computers, personal digital assistants), and associated wireless infrastructures (e.g. wireless local area networks, mobile telecommunications infrastructures, bluetooth personal area networks). Mobile ICT offers a range of technical opportunities for organisations and their members to implement enterprise mobility. However, the challenges of unlocking the opportunities of enterprise mobility are not well understood. One of the key issues is to establish systems and associated working practices that are deemed usable by both individuals and the organisation. The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of organisational usability can enrich the understanding of mobile ICT in organisations. As an addition to the traditional understanding of individual usability, organisational usability emphasises the role of mobile ICT beyond individual support. A large-scale study of four different ways of organising foreign exchange trading in a Middle Eastern bank serves as the concrete foundation for the discussion. The empirical study showed how the final of the four attempts at establishing 24-h trading deployed mobile ICT to enable mobile trading and by providing a solution, which was deemed usable for both the organisation and the traders. The paper contributes to the understanding of how usability of mobile ICT critically depends on carefully balancing individual and organisational requirements. It also demonstrates the need for research in enterprise mobility to embrace both individual and organisational concerns in order to grasp the complexity of the phenomena.
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paper_title: Electronic trading and the process of globalization in traditional futures exchanges: a temporal perspective

paper_content:

This paper develops a temporal perspective to examine information and communication technologies (ICT) adoption and processes of globalization. The foundations of our theoretical approach explicitly draw upon three intersecting planes of temporality implicit in structuration; namely reversibility, irreversibility and institutionalization. We further develop our theoretical perspective by extending the scope of structuration to incorporate temporal features of Adam's social theory on ‘global time’. We then use this temporal perspective to examine the emergence of electronic trading and the process of globalization across London and Chicago futures exchanges. Our analysis provides insights into the IT-enabled reconfiguration of these exchanges during processes of reproduction and change associated with globalization. We conclude with some key implications for e-trading strategy and consider changes in trader work life associated with the adoption of e-trading.
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paper_title: High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications☆

paper_content:

Abstract The development of high frequency data bases allows for empirical investigations of a wide range of issues in the financial markets. In this paper, we set out some of the many important issues connected with the use, analysis, and application of high-frequency data sets. These include the effects of market structure on the availability and interpretation of the data, methodological issues such as the treatment of time, the effects of intra-day seasonals, and the effects of time-varying volatility, and the information content of various market data. We also address using high frequency data to determine the linkages between markets and to determine the applicability of temporal trading rules. The paper concludes with a discussion of the issues for future research.
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paper_title: AmI Support for the Trading Process: Self-aware Trader Model

paper_content:

Decision making in trading can be compromised when traders are under stress. In this paper is presented a case study where ambient intelligence has been used to provide traders with self-awareness of their stress levels. We illustrate how using specific stress sensors improved the results of the trading process by avoiding bad decision making at crucial moments.
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paper_title: Realtime sensor monitoring correlation to technical analysis

paper_content:

Traders use as many tools as are available to improve their results. One of the most used tools is the technical analysis. Recent studies conclude how the direction of the prices is influenced by the psychological component of the own traders measured thought physiological variables. If traders' physiological variables are highly correlated with the market, and the market is analyzed with technical analysis, could the same analysis be applied to the trader's state?. This paper describes a possible application of the technical analysis techniques over the behavior of the trader. The behavior of the trader is monitored measuring physiological variables related to traders' stress through biometric sensors. Some tests are presented shown in a chart way that it is possible to see that the principles of technical analysis are applicable to the trader's state.
---
paper_title: A Survey on Wearable Sensor-Based Systems for Health Monitoring and Prognosis

paper_content:

The design and development of wearable biosensor systems for health monitoring has garnered lots of attention in the scientific community and the industry during the last years. Mainly motivated by increasing healthcare costs and propelled by recent technological advances in miniature biosensing devices, smart textiles, microelectronics, and wireless communications, the continuous advance of wearable sensor-based systems will potentially transform the future of healthcare by enabling proactive personal health management and ubiquitous monitoring of a patient's health condition. These systems can comprise various types of small physiological sensors, transmission modules and processing capabilities, and can thus facilitate low-cost wearable unobtrusive solutions for continuous all-day and any-place health, mental and activity status monitoring. This paper attempts to comprehensively review the current research and development on wearable biosensor systems for health monitoring. A variety of system implementations are compared in an approach to identify the technological shortcomings of the current state-of-the-art in wearable biosensor solutions. An emphasis is given to multiparameter physiological sensing system designs, providing reliable vital signs measurements and incorporating real-time decision support for early detection of symptoms or context awareness. In order to evaluate the maturity level of the top current achievements in wearable health-monitoring systems, a set of significant features, that best describe the functionality and the characteristics of the systems, has been selected to derive a thorough study. The aim of this survey is not to criticize, but to serve as a reference for researchers and developers in this scientific area and to provide direction for future research improvements.
---
paper_title: The Psychophysiology of Real-Time Financial Risk Processing

paper_content:

A longstanding controversy in economics and finance is whether financial markets are governed by rational forces or by emotional responses. We study the importance of emotion in the decisionmaking process of professional securities traders by measuring their physiological characteristics, e.g., skin conductance, blood volume pulse, etc., during live trading sessions while simultaneously capturing real-time prices from which market events can be defined. In a sample of 10 traders, we find significant correlation between electrodermal responses and transient market events, and between changes in cardiovascular variables and market volatility. We also observe differences in these correlations among the 10 traders which may be systematically related to the traders' levels of experience.
---
paper_title: Affect-aware behaviour modelling and control inside an intelligent environment

paper_content:

The evidence suggests that human actions are supported by emotional elements that complement logic inference in our decision-making processes. In this paper an exploratory study is presented providing initial evidence of the positive effects of emotional information on the ability of intelligent agents to create better models of user actions inside smart-homes. Preliminary results suggest that an agent incorporating valence-based emotional data into its input array can model user behaviour in a more accurate way than agents using no emotion-based data or raw data based on physiological changes.
---
paper_title: An analysis of Bluetooth security vulnerabilities

paper_content:

Bluetooth has been developed to provide mobile ad hoc connectivity between a wide range of portable and fixed devices. In this paper, the Bluetooth system is described with an emphasis on its security features and known vulnerabilities. Additional security vulnerabilities were discovered using a scheme called VERDICT. These vulnerabilities are compared to vulnerabilities found in the IEEE 802.11 wireless local area network standard with VERDICT. Vulnerabilities were found as a result of poor improper validation, exposure, and randomness. These vulnerabilities include device address validation, invalid states, and exposed keys.
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paper_title: Unpacking collaboration: the interactional organisation of trading in a city dealing room

paper_content:

It is has been widely recognised that whilst CSCW has led to a number of impressive technological developments, examples of successful applications remain few. In part, this may be due to our relative ignorance of the organisation of real world, cooperative activity. Focusing on share trading in a securities house in the City of London, we explore the interactional organisation of particular tasks and the ways in whcih dealers interweave individual and collaborative activity. These observations suggest ways in which we might reconsider a number of central concepts in CSCW and begin. to draw design implications from naturalistic studies of work and interaction.
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paper_title: Accuracy of the LifeShirt® (Vivometrics) in the detection of cardiac rhythms

paper_content:

The use of heart rate measures in research requires accurate detection and timing of beat-to-beat values. Numerous technologies are available to researchers; however, benchmarking of a specific apparatus is seldom conducted. Since heart rate variability provides a portal to the neural regulation of the heart, accurate detection and timing of beat-to-beat values is essential to both basic physiological research and the clinical application of heart rate variability measures. The current study evaluated the accuracy of an ambulatory system, the LifeShirt® (Vivometrics), relative to a standard laboratory-based heart rate monitoring equipment (Biopac), during baseline and exercise conditions. LifeShirt® performed equivalently to the Biopac during both conditions, experienced few errors of detection, generated similar times between sequential heart periods, and produced similar summary indices of heart rate and heart rate variability.
---
paper_title: The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders

paper_content:

Learn the successful trading tactics and methods of the best and the brightest traders. Widely diverse in the methods they use and the markets they trade, Schwager pulls together the common attributes that they share, so you can learn from their success. Indispensable.
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paper_title: Why Traders Need Ambient Intelligence

paper_content:

Trading is widely recognized as a stressful profession. Taking decisions under stress negatively affects both, the finances and the health of the trader. Providing support to increase the awareness of traders on their real levels of stress could significantly improve their performance and well-being. This paper surveys technology available that can be considered to provide such level of support. We explore Ambient Intelligence solutions, which can provide support for two cases: a single trader and a network of traders.
---
paper_title: Sensors in trading process: A Stress—Aware Trader

paper_content:

Decision-making for trading requires a complex infrastructure: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, expert systems indicating propitious moments of operation, and more. However, one very relevant element is usually underestimated: a trader's stress level, which can significantly undermine the trader's capability to think clearly. This paper explains how stress information can be gathered from sensors during a trading operation, which sensors can be used for this purpose, and proposes a decision-making process supported by measuring stress through sensors which can lead to a Stress—Aware Trader.
---
paper_title: Relative subjective count and assessment of interruptive technologies applied to mobile monitoring of stress

paper_content:

A variety of technologies-from agents designed to assist or encourage you, to context-based messaging services-have the opportunity to interrupt you many times throughout the day. One of the challenges with designing new highly interruptive technologies is how to objectively assess their influence on human experience. This paper presents an assessment of a new mobile system that interrupts the wearer to support self-monitoring of stress. We utilize a diverse set of assessment techniques, including a newly proposed measure, relative subjective count, which compares the difference in perceived number of interruptions to actual number of interruptions. This measure, together with direct and indirect subjective reports, and a behavioral choice, is used to evaluate an empathetic version of the mobile system vs. a non-empathetic version. We found that post-experience direct questionnaire assessments such as ''how stressful has using the system been?'' do not significantly distinguish user experiences with the two systems; however, the new measure of relative subjective count, the behavioral choice, and another indirect questioning strategy, do point toward a preference for the empathetic system.
---
paper_title: Stock Trading Using RSPOP: A Novel Rough Set-Based Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

paper_content:

This paper investigates the method of forecasting stock price difference on artificially generated price series data using neuro-fuzzy systems and neural networks. As trading profits is more important to an investor than statistical performance, this paper proposes a novel rough set-based neuro-fuzzy stock trading decision model called stock trading using rough set-based pseudo outer-product (RSPOP) which synergizes the price difference forecast method with a forecast bottleneck free trading decision model. The proposed stock trading with forecast model uses the pseudo outer-product based fuzzy neural network using the compositional rule of inference [POPFNN-CRI(S)] with fuzzy rules identified using the RSPOP algorithm as the underlying predictor model and simple moving average trading rules in the stock trading decision model. Experimental results using the proposed stock trading with RSPOP forecast model on real world stock market data are presented. Trading profits in terms of portfolio end values obtained are benchmarked against stock trading with dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) forecast model, the stock trading without forecast model and the stock trading with ideal forecast model. Experimental results showed that the proposed model identified rules with greater interpretability and yielded significantly higher profits than the stock trading with DENFIS forecast model and the stock trading without forecast model
---
paper_title: Why Traders Need Ambient Intelligence

paper_content:

Trading is widely recognized as a stressful profession. Taking decisions under stress negatively affects both, the finances and the health of the trader. Providing support to increase the awareness of traders on their real levels of stress could significantly improve their performance and well-being. This paper surveys technology available that can be considered to provide such level of support. We explore Ambient Intelligence solutions, which can provide support for two cases: a single trader and a network of traders.
---
paper_title: TRADER: an expert system for trading commodities futures

paper_content:

An expert system is described, written in PROLOG, for trading commodities futures. The system uses a blackboard architecture to develop a set of confidence factors for buying and selling futures. It also has an elaborate user interface, which displays the technical studies that its decisions are based on in graphical form and provides feedback to the user on its decisions. This interface played a major role in the knowledge acquisition phase of the project. The program is a real-time system using tick data provided by Tick Data Inc. of Chicago, IL. It has been extensively tested on historical data with encouraging results; the authors are refining the confidence factor computation and adding a training aspect to the program. >
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paper_title: Sensors in trading process: A Stress—Aware Trader

paper_content:

Decision-making for trading requires a complex infrastructure: technical analysis, fundamental analysis, expert systems indicating propitious moments of operation, and more. However, one very relevant element is usually underestimated: a trader's stress level, which can significantly undermine the trader's capability to think clearly. This paper explains how stress information can be gathered from sensors during a trading operation, which sensors can be used for this purpose, and proposes a decision-making process supported by measuring stress through sensors which can lead to a Stress—Aware Trader.
---
paper_title: Expert Trading Systems: Modeling Financial Markets with Kernel Regression

paper_content:

From the Publisher: ::: With the proliferation of computer programs to predict market direction, professional traders and sophisticated individual investors have increasingly turned to mathematical modeling to develop predictive systems. Kernel regression is a popular data modeling technique that can yield useful results fast. ::: Provides data modeling methodology used to develop trading systems. * Shows how to design, test, and measure the significance of results ::: John R. Wolberg (Haifa, Israel) is professor of mechanical engineering at the Haifa Institute in Israel. He does research and consulting in data modeling in the financial services area.
---
paper_title: The Psychophysiology of Real-Time Financial Risk Processing

paper_content:

A longstanding controversy in economics and finance is whether financial markets are governed by rational forces or by emotional responses. We study the importance of emotion in the decisionmaking process of professional securities traders by measuring their physiological characteristics, e.g., skin conductance, blood volume pulse, etc., during live trading sessions while simultaneously capturing real-time prices from which market events can be defined. In a sample of 10 traders, we find significant correlation between electrodermal responses and transient market events, and between changes in cardiovascular variables and market volatility. We also observe differences in these correlations among the 10 traders which may be systematically related to the traders' levels of experience.
---
paper_title: Relative subjective count and assessment of interruptive technologies applied to mobile monitoring of stress

paper_content:

A variety of technologies-from agents designed to assist or encourage you, to context-based messaging services-have the opportunity to interrupt you many times throughout the day. One of the challenges with designing new highly interruptive technologies is how to objectively assess their influence on human experience. This paper presents an assessment of a new mobile system that interrupts the wearer to support self-monitoring of stress. We utilize a diverse set of assessment techniques, including a newly proposed measure, relative subjective count, which compares the difference in perceived number of interruptions to actual number of interruptions. This measure, together with direct and indirect subjective reports, and a behavioral choice, is used to evaluate an empathetic version of the mobile system vs. a non-empathetic version. We found that post-experience direct questionnaire assessments such as ''how stressful has using the system been?'' do not significantly distinguish user experiences with the two systems; however, the new measure of relative subjective count, the behavioral choice, and another indirect questioning strategy, do point toward a preference for the empathetic system.
---

Title: A Sensor Technology Survey for a Stress-Aware Trading Process

Section 1: INFLUENCE OF STRESS IN DECISION MAKING
Description 1: Detail how stress influences trader's decisions and the potential consequences of impaired decision-making due to stress.

Section 2: BIOLOGICAL STRESS PARAMETERS
Description 2: Discuss the physiological parameters that reflect stress and how these can be measured using sensor technology.

Section 3: SENSOR TECHNOLOGY: A POSSIBLE NEXT STEP TO IMPROVE THE TRADING PROCESS
Description 3: Review current sensor technologies available for measuring stress-related biometrical variables and their potential applications in trading.

Section 4: TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION IN TRADING
Description 4: Provide a historical overview of technological advancements in trading and the increasing role of automated systems.

Section 5: IMPROVING HUMAN DECISION MAKING: A POSSIBLE CURRENTLY SENSOR TRADER MONITORING
Description 5: Discuss how current sensor technologies can be integrated to monitor traders' stress levels and improve decision-making processes.

Section 6: COMPARISONS, DISCUSSION, AND THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
Description 6: Provide a comparative analysis of different sensor technologies based on criteria relevant to trading and discuss theoretical considerations for their effective application.

Section 7: ISSUES IN TRADING PROCESS WHERE SENSOR TECHNOLOGY CAN BE DECIDING
Description 7: Identify specific areas within the trading process where sensor technology can provide significant benefits.

Section 8: GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNERS
Description 8: Offer guidelines for designing sensor technology that can be effectively integrated into the trading process.

Section 9: SUMMARY OF CONTRIBUTIONS
Description 9: Summarize the contributions made by the paper in the context of stress, sensor technology, and trading.

Section 10: CONCLUSIONS AND NEW DIRECTIONS
Description 10: Draw conclusions from the research and suggest new directions for future research in integrating sensor technology with trading processes.

Section 11: CONCLUDING REMARKS
Description 11: Provide final thoughts on the importance of stress-aware trading and the role of sensor technology in achieving this.