Stocks Fall Ahead Of The Make Or Break Job Report 
Stocks fell today, despite trying to rally as rates and the dollar pushed higher. The job report tomorrow will drive what happens next.
Stocks Fall Ahead Of The Make Or Break Job Report
Stocks fell today, despite trying to rally as rates and the dollar pushed higher. The job report tomorrow will drive what happens next and based on a lot of different data, I think those forecasts of 250,000 news jobs may prove low. Those ISM data points have shown three solid months of improvement in the service industry and suggest an improving labor market, not softening. Additionally, the BLS job report has beaten consensus estimates every month since October 2021, except for March and April of this year, and the April miss was by a small margin.
Of course, tomorrow can be the day that NFP comes in below estimates because I am pointing it out. But again, all one can do is analyze the data and form an opinion based on it. So that has allowed me to believe that the jobs data will be better than expected and potentially significantly better than expected.
2-Yr
The 2-Year appears to be breaking out as well, suggesting there may be more upside for rates to come. The 2-yr is flirting with the 4.25% level, and should that level be cleared, then it has a lot of room to run higher.
(Click on image to enlarge)
S&P 500 (SPX)
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has formed one of my diamond patterns. If that is correct, the index is set for a pretty significant drop back to the origin of the rally and suggests a reversal of all the gains and potentially undercut the September low.
(Click on image to enlarge)
AMD (AMD)
AMD pre-announced revenue numbers after the close, showing sales of about $5.6 billion vs estimates of $6.7 billion. That is a huge miss, more than 16%. It is no different than Nvidia when it gave that horrible guidance, and it really should not come as a surprise. Even Micron cited it had a big slowdown in PC sales when it reported, I think it was last week? It feels as if Micron reported ages ago, but I think it was last week. Anyway, the point is, there was no way AMD was immune, and that is probably why the stock has been crushed. Now could it fall further, sure? But really, it all depends on that support level at $61. Once that support goes, this stock has no support, from what I can see, until the upper $ ’40s.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is also trading lower after hours on the AMD news, and I have no idea why this stock holds up, so well. I guess what I am wondering now is if the sector has deteriorated further since Nvidia gave that guidance in mid-August. My guess is it has, and if it has, it probably comes on the gaming side, and if that data center side goes, watch out. For now, the stock stalled out at $131, and support comes at $117.
(Click on image to enlarge)
More By This Author:
Stocks Rally On October 3, But Don’t Expect It To Last
7 Monster Stock Market Predictions For The Week Of Oct. 3
Stocks Rally On September 28, As Rates Plunge
Disclaimer: Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information ...more
Disclaimer: Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.less