system
A chat on subreddit /r/PoliticalCompassMemes
human
Recidvisim is &lt;2% for murderers. It's possible the distribution is taily, but for the rate to drop from 4.5% to even 3%, the average recidivist would need to commit 26 murders\*.

We don't have enough serial killers, for that to be the issue here.

\* 26 = (0.045/0.03 - 0.98\*1)/0.02
gpt
Most gang murders go unsolved. My guess is that there are gang members that have dozens and dozens of murders to their name and never get caught. Think old-school mafia, with guys like Kuklinski. This will skew the data heavily.