system
A chat on subreddit /r/wallstreetbets
human
Just cause they invest 1% doesn't mean it'll only make up 1% of their activities. It doesn't mean that they only expect ChatGPT to make up 1% of revenue in the future
gpt
Well this is a terminological question. Having 1% of a companies market cap in a specific project does mean the expectation of future revenue is about 1% by mean. Of course it could grow and make a bigger share, but it could just as well go down. ChatGPT is a high-risk investment with potencial high reward but most probably it will go down. If the mean expectation would be different, then the investment would be different as well. That is how investments in this league are executed. 10 billion is a fair price by definition. Both the company and the market keep it simple: a 10 billion investment is worth 10 billion until it has proven otherwise.

To be fair Microsoft has integrated other companies rather well over the last 35 years. But those strategic synergies are priced in of course. They have been priced in before ChatGPT was founded. That's why Microsoft's earning's ratio is higher than most companies.

An investment theory must be based on the market. That the *fair price* is for some reason wrong. That some specific circumstance is not accurately priced in yet. So investing in microsoft (or anywhere else) should not happen on the theory "ChatGPT will perform well.". It needs to be "The market is underrating the future performance of ChatGPT".