system
A chat on subreddit /r/wallstreetbets
human
What indicators make you bearish?
gpt
Aside from the reduction in discretionary spending, especially cloths &amp; electronics, 

a 20 year record increase in credit card debt last quarter, 

the fact that we’re just getting over the holidays &amp; people are tapped out, 

the federal government continues to try to stimulate the economy as the Fed is trying to tighten it, 

existing home sales haven’t been this low since 2009 &amp; the few that are buying are taking out on average 5% interest rates for 30 year fixed effectively doubling their their monthly bill,

the scarcity of labor is driving up the cost of labor which is the number one expense for most firms,

people are getting less but paying more

loans are being taken out at record interest rates which not only makes both firms &amp; people pay more each month, but it also destroyed money that would have otherwise been spent in the economy. 

it’s a global economy, and Europe is getting pounded with negative GDP growth last quarter &amp; consumer demand which means they’re buying less from us

Listen, folks are tapped out. They’re economizing on their needs and cutting back on their wants. Most people making $200K or less have adapted to a standard of living that has them living paycheck to paycheck and prices are pushing them out of that standard of living. 

In order for the rate of inflation to decrease it must mean demand destruction. Demand destruction of labor &amp; demand destruction of goods &amp; services. It’s why the Fed continues to raise rates. They’re trying to create demand destruction which is the only way outside increasing the labor force participation rate of reducing the rate of inflation.

There is no reason to think that we won’t have negative GDP growth, or close to it, for Q1 2022. HOLD ME TO IT! Consumer spending will be lower, investment will be lower, and I’m not certain where government spending will come in at but I doubt they will spend more than they did last year. 

C+I+G+(X-M)=Y

Consumer Spending + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports) = GDP

People are one car engine failure, one flat tire, one twisted ankle, or world disaster away from breaking the bank.

Remember, that the biggest rallies happen in bear markets and the biggest dumps happen in bull markets, without exception!