system
A chat on subreddit /r/wallstreetbets
human
Yeah the fed is getting help by the lagging effect in the CPI. But when home prices and rent start falling even faster, and the YoY CPI comparison is more friendly (meaning that in 2022 the CPI was super high so the YoY comparison will help the 2023 numbers), I think we may get to 3% by May and sub 2% by august - which lends itself to the prediction that 2H 2023 is when the next bull run starts - fed will need to cut rates in the back half of next year.
gpt
I think that’s pretty optimistic. There have been a lot of threads on here about inflation and how ours isn’t just as simple as “Fed twists interest rate knob to fix” - there are serious demographic and geopolitical forces underlying (e.g. COVID contracting labor supply, Russia war, China randomly still dealing with COVID, related supply chain shit). This is similar to the 70’s energy crisis. I do agree with your discomfort around the “inevitability” of stocks going down, but really if you look at it, only growth/tech is down severely while traditional consumer stocks are holding pretty stable. There could be a lot to lose on those if we do get a layoffs-heavy recession complete with deflation or liquidity issues.