More on Climate Predictions  No pun intended.       G&A 2007
says:  Reid Bryson, the worldâ€™s most cited climatologist,
wrote in a 1993 article that a model is â€œnothing more than a
formal statement of how the modeler believes that the part of
the world of his concern actually worksâ€ (p. 798-790). Based
on the explanations of climate models that we have seen, we
concur. While advocates of complex climate models claim that
they are based on â€œwell established laws of physicsâ€, there
is clearly much more to the models than the laws of physics
otherwise they would all produce the same output, which patently
they do not. And there would be no need for confidence estimates
for model forecasts, which there most certainly are. Climate
models are, in effect, mathematical ways for the experts to
express their opinions.”  Notice that Bryson says how things
work, not what will happen. Again, except in trivial models, the
behavior that emerges from the operational specification of how
things work may not be easy t