Publication Date  September 1995   [Excerpt] The first major
prediction of the theory is that an increase in the extrinsic
rewards for learning will cause student effort and achievement
to increase. The primary extrinsic reward for achievement in
high school is a higher probability of completing college. Thus
the extrinsic rewards for learning in high school depend on the
size of the payoff to college and on how contingent college
admissions decisions are on achievement in high school. Time
series data suggests that changes in college selectivity and
payoff may have contributed to the ups and downs of student
achievement during the postwar period. The college payoff and
test scores rose during the 1950s and peaked during the 1960s.
Both series then declined during the 1970s, bottomed out around
1980, and then rose during the 1980s. The doubling of the payoff
to college during the 1980s appears to have contributed to more
homework being assigned and done and a big increase in the
proportion of students taking