TONY BLAIR has every reason to fear the politics of war. In his
very first outing as a Labour candidate, in the 1982
Beaconsfield by-election, he came a poor third and lost his
deposit as opinion swung behind Margaret Thatcher's government
during the Falklands war.  Two decades later, the stakes are
much higher. The longer the war against Iraq goes on, the
greater the strain on the party. Last month a group of worried
Labour MPs met to discuss what they termed a “haemorrhage” in
membership. In recent weeks Labour has lost supposedly safe
council seats in Basingstoke, Camden and Abertillery, continuing
a trend of losses over the past year.  The omens for the local
elections in May are poor. Labour could lose as many as 500
seats. “Most branches are moribund—this is a party dying at the
grassroots,” claims Mark Seddon, editor of the left-wing
newspaper Tribune. Some hyperbole from left-wing, anti-war
activists is only natural. But in Norwich, a moderate Labour
stronghold since 1997, when the party won both the