New software takes guesswork out of tough decisions  By Kimberly
Palmer  March 2, 2005  Reaching a decision with colleagues who
disagree is a common challenge for federal executives. But a new
computer program is designed to make that task a little easier.
Steven Popper, professor of science and technology policy at
RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica, Calif., and his colleagues
have developed a way to make decisions without first agreeing on
a set of assumptions about how the world works--a useful tool,
especially if the decision-makers come from diverse backgrounds.
The software, called CARs, takes advantage of the ability of
computers to make millions of calculations in a few seconds.
Can't agree on whether the population will hold steady or
rapidly expand, or whether environmental concerns should trump
economic growth? No problem. CARs -- the first three letters
stand for computer-assisted reasoning -- will work out what can
happen under each set of assumptions.  Most modeling programs
lack this flexib