With High Unemployment, Why Is Obama Ahead?  Nate Silver has an
excellent post this morning on the Romney campaign’s reaction to
the attacks on Bain Capital. The short story is that Romney
might be overreacting to the controversy; he continues to
equivocate and go on the defensive, despite the thin evidence
that these attacks are having an effect on the race. Both Obama
and Romney are roughly where they were three months ago, when
the general election began in earnest, and polls taken since the
attacks began have been inconclusive on the effect of anti-Bain
ads.  To show that Romney isn’t underperforming (because of Bain
or anything else), Silver looks to his economic model for the
election, which predicts a small but solid lead for the
incumbent. Moreover, he makes an important point about the
economic indicators that matter in the election year: Pace
almost all election coverage, unemployment doesn’t actually tell
you much about the final outcome of an election:  In plain
English, what this chart says is th