Could A “Polling Bubble” Explain Why This Race Appears To Be So
Close?  This is an extremely difficult election to forecast
because, unlike the last few cycles, there has been so much
weird and unexplainable polling data.  Going just by the top of
the line, final product numbers, this election is neck-and-neck
going down the stretch. On the other hand, going by the
crosstabs, Romney is going to win this election just as handily
as Obama won in 2008.  Why do I say that?  Early voting.
Independent voters.  In the last three releases of the tracking
poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has
trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among
independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points.
That’s a striking reversal from 2008, when Obama won independent
voters, who made up 29 percent of the electorate, by eight
points over Sen. John McCain of Arizona.   “Fifty-one percent
(51%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney and 48% say
the same of Obama.” — Rasmussen Reports  S