print logo  How to Understand Obama’s Chances in 2012  Thursday,
July 21, 2011  The popular vote for the House and the president
have converged. Here’s what it means for Obama’s chances in
2012.    So it is fair to say that the popular vote for the
House and the president have converged. This is apparent in the
following table, showing the Democratic percentage for president
and for House members in presidential election years going back
to the first election after World War II.  Table 1  Barone-Table
1   The question then suggests itself: to what extent can we
consider the popular vote for the House in off-year elections as
a prediction of the presidential vote in the next election? The
answer appears to be: pretty good. Here are the Republican and
Democratic percentages for the House popular vote and for the
presidential popular vote, starting with 1994.  Table 2  Barone-
Table 2  In the three most recent cases, the off-year
percentages for the House are almost exactly the same as the
presidential year perce