@techreport{NBERw18769, title = "Are Government Spending
Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th
Century Historical Data", author = "Michael T. Owyang and
Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy", institution = "National
Bureau of Economic Research", type = "Working Paper", series =
"Working Paper Series", number = "18769", year = "2013", month =
"February", URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w18769", abstract
= {A key question that has arisen during recent debates is
whether government spending multipliers are larger during times
when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this
question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering
multiple large wars and depressions in the U.S. and Canada.
Using an extension of Ramey’s (2011) military news series and
Jordà’s (2005) method for estimating impulse responses, we find
no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high
unemployment in the U.S. In every case, the estimated
multipliers are below unity. We do find