  Mon, 2008-09-15 10:11Jeremy Jacquot Jeremy Jacquot's picture
They have no choice but to drill in currently off limit areas.
World supply is shrinking both from geological depletion of
deposits, but also demand from other regions, such as China. (At
China's current rate of growth in 15 years their demand will be
what the world currently produces, 86million barrels per day,
leaving nothing for everyone else)  Canterell field in Mexico is
in terminal decline of about 15% per year and accelerating. That
deposit is the US's third largest import source. In 4 years the
deposit will not supply Mexico's domestic demand. Hence it's
just a matter of a few short years and the US will have to make
that import up from somewhere else, competing with China.   But
still even drilling in these areas will not keep this party
going. Estimates are that there is about 30-40BB of recoverable
oil in these locations. That's 5-6 years of US consumption. They
actually will last much longer because the flow rate is going