IT HAS replaced Kremlinology as the main diplomatic parlour
game. With each change of the guard, outsiders rush to draw
dramatic conclusions about factional infighting and ideological
power struggles; and then they are usually forced to revise
them. Instead of Politburo hardliners, Georgian satraps and
Moscow modernisers, we now have Bush loyalists, neo-
conservatives, assertive realists, traditional
internationalists, Pentagon hawks and State Department doves.
This week saw the departure from the Bush administration of the
supposed head dove. Colin Powell, George Bush's secretary of
state, resigned, and was replaced by Condoleezza Rice, hitherto
the national security adviser. Because Mr Powell was seen as the
most internationalist member of the administration and Ms Rice
(no mean real Kremlinologist, incidentally) is seen primarily as
a Bush loyalist (with a bit of assertive realism thrown in),
many Bushologists in Europe have jumped to depict the change as
a shift to the right. It need not be.  The European