I suspect that someone will develop a single App, maybe
something CAD oriented, that runs on existing O/S's well - this
achieves great success and spurs others on to explore the new
opportunities in other ways, again with some success.  Someone
then takes the new CAD App and removes the O/S layer replacing
it with something that fits better with the new demands, and the
App runs better.  Someone else then takes the new underlying App
layer and writes something different on top of it. Eventually a
more generic intermediate layer emerges (Silverlight / Flash
like?) and becomes some sort of standard.  In turn that is
replaced with something in the O/S., which later becomes the
O/S.   I don't think 10 years is overly optimistic.