The Welch Way  The Economy: A Little Clarity  Just recently, we
were walking down Lexington Avenue in New York when a young man
in a suit stopped us. He told us he worked on Wall Street, read
this column, and wondered if we might answer a question on the
spot. We agreed to try, but he stumped us.  "When are things
going to get better?" he wanted to know.  "Sometime in 2010,"
was our answer, "maybe."  Can you blame us for hedging? This
recession has government experts and renowned economists
reeling—that is, when they're not disagreeing with one
another—clouding any kind of cogent consensus about what's
ahead. Some people are seeing glimmers of hope, others dungeons
of doom, and there are proponents of everything in between.  As
for us, the best we can offer is a list of what we think we know
for sure about the economy right now, and, perhaps as
importantly, what we know we don't know at all.  Let's start
with the five phenomena that seem fairly certain to us.  First,
it appears the economy has hit some kind o