FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- You can never do enough due diligence.
A year ago, when the Orioles began pondering a contract
extension for second baseman Brian Roberts, they relied on
number-crunching and statistical analysis of an advanced nature
to help set fair expectations for his performance over the life
of the deal.  That endeavor largely had to do with how offensive
players of his type tend to age, a case study that used seven
decades of baseball history as its backdrop and systematically
eliminated some ill-suited matches.  In the end, the Orioles
were comfortable enough to offer him an extra year than they had
originally anticipated, a fact many felt was key when Roberts
signed a four-year deal worth $40 million Feb. 20. Now, with the
end of that contract standing five seasons away, both sides are
free to talk about the process and the end result.  "I think
[historical trends are] part of the equation," said Andy
MacPhail, Baltimore's president of baseball operations. "It's
not the major part of the equa