@techreport{NBERw2099, title = "The Record and Improvability of
Economic Forecasting", author = "Victor Zarnowitz", institution
= "National Bureau of Economic Research", type = "Working
Paper", series = "Working Paper Series", number = "2099", year =
"1986", month = "December", doi = {10.3386/w2099}, URL =
"http://www.nber.org/papers/w2099", abstract = {Have
macroeconomic forecasts grown more or less accurate over time?
This paper assembles, examines, and interprets evidence bearing
on this question. Contrary to some critics, there are no
indications that U.S. forecasts have grown systematically worse,
that is, less accurate, more biased, or both. Neither do any
definite trends in a positive direction emerge from comparisons
of annual and quarterly multiperiod forecasts and time-series
projections for the principal aggregative variables. The
argument is developed and to some extent documented that major
failures of forecasting are related to the incidence of
slowdowns and contractions in general economic acti