IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Climate
Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis  Sea
Level  Sea level is projected to rise between the present
(1980–1999) and the end of this century (2090–2099) under the
SRES B1 scenario by 0.18 to 0.38 m, B2 by 0.20 to 0.43 m, A1B by
0.21 to 0.48 m, A1T by 0.20 to 0.45 m, A2 by 0.23 to 0.51 m, and
A1FI by 0.26 to 0.59 m. These are 5 to 95% ranges based on the
spread of AOGCM results, not including uncertainty in carbon
cycle feedbacks. For each scenario, the midpoint of the range is
within 10% of the TAR model average for 2090-2099. The ranges
are narrower than in the TAR mainly because of improved
information about some uncertainties in the projected
contributions. In all scenarios, the average rate of rise during
the 21st century very likely exceeds the 1961 to 2003 average
rate (1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr–1). During 2090 to 2099 under A1B, the
central estimate of the rate of rise is 3.8 mm yr–1. For an
average model, the scenario spread in sea le