Harvard Business Review    May 2011   When Every Customer Is a
New Customer   Also Available  When evaluating potential new
businesses, one of the first questions managers ask is: How fast
is the market growing? But managers who think only about growth
rates may be missing real opportunities. Another factor can make
even slow-growing markets highly dynamic: rapid turnover of the
customer base.  Consider two markets that have seen little
growth in recent years: smoking cessation aids and cigarettes.
The market for the former has been flat for a decade, during
which the shares of the leading brands, Nicorette and NicoDerm,
were cut almost in half by Commit lozenges and other new
products. Despite stagnant sales, the market was dynamic. Growth
in the cigarette market was even negative at times, but the
share of longtime leaders like Marlboro and Camel held steady.
In this case the market was not dynamic. Why the difference?
Customers for cessation aids turn over quickly—either they kick
the habit and no longer