#PAGov: Corbett Ads Taking No Toll on Tom Wolf’s Polling  Share
With Friends  I bet Larry Ceisler’s been having a fun summer
watching PoliticsPA go from being essential political reading to
being less essential even than the Morning Call’s basically non-
existent politics blog. What the hell yo?  Anyway, this was one
of the worst polling analyses I’ve ever read, and I don’t know
if it was intentionally bad for click-bait reasons, or if it was
just bad-bad, but here’s what you need to know.  “Leaners” and
“likely voters” are different things. One measures candidate
preferences. The other is an educated guess about who’s actually
going to show up. A leaner is somebody who’s leaning toward a
particular candidate. And a likely voter is who a pollster
thinks will vote. Nick’s post weirdly conflates these two
things, to make a point that doesn’t make sense. Colleen K
catalogs the derp at length if you want to get into it.  The
rest of you will do fine just looking at this updated chart of
the general election pollin