Speculating on Black Gold  Since early 2004, international crude
oil prices have witnessed a massive upsurge. For several days in
the second half of 2004, oil prices remained at US$50 a barrel.
Although oil prices have declined in the past few weeks, yet
they still remain on a higher side. Almost 70 percent rise in
oil prices in the past one year has caused widespread panic
across the world. The price hike shocked the OPEC (Organization
of Petroleum Exporting Countries) which expressed its inability
to calm down the markets by increasing oil supply. Such an
unpredictable rise in oil prices could have devastating
consequences for the world economy which cannot absorb the
latest â€œoil shock.â€ But the basic question is: what
contributed to the sudden rise in oil prices? Energy market
analysts have postulated various arguments to explain the price
upsurge. Most analysts have strongly argued that the oil price
hike is solely contributed by fundamentals, particularly demand
and supply factors. However, a closer