The Hardball Times  Projecting the World Series  by Jeff
Sackmann October 21, 2006  Predictions are fun, and if the
proliferation of articles preceding every postseason series is
any indication, I'm not alone in thinking so. I am, apparently,
alone in thinking that postseason series previews don't have
nearly enough numbers. Let's change that.  In my NLCS preview, I
looked at a variety of methods one could use to tweak what we
assumed about the Mets and Cardinals. I made a variety of
tenuous claims and relied heavily on pythagorean records and the
log5 method to spit out a bunch of series probabilities. The
World Series has a representative from at least one good league,
so it deserves better.  Here's a simple way to estimate the
outcome of any game: rather than taking the won-loss record of
each team, consider the number of runs they are likely to score
and allow in that particular game. For instance, the Cardinals
are more likely to win behind Chris Carpenter (pitching like his
normal self, anyway) than beh