In response to:  Rove: Romney's Going to Win  Jay520 Wrote: Nov
01, 2012 1:32 PM I don't know if there an "intensity of dislike
for the imcumbent" catagory, but a lot of people dislike Obama
intensly. Does that mean anything? amackley Wrote: Nov 01, 2012
2:24 PM This is a good point. Romney's Likeability (a positive
motivator for voters) is higher than Obama's by about 2 points.
But that indicates whether someone is motivated to vote FOR a
candidate.  However a Dislikeablity (a negative motivator) would
indicate someone who would be motivated to get out and vote for
the competitor. Even more important, when someone votes against
a candidate, they are actually moving the vote count by two.
Simply not voting shifts the balance by 1. Voting against a
candidate shifts the balance by 2.  In a 47 to 48 race, not
voting would tie the race. (47 to 47). Voting against would
cause the competitor to win (48 to 47).  Many 2008 Obama voters
are voting against Obama, each shifting the balance by 2.
QuasiFrodo Wrote: Nov 0