@techreport{NBERw16919, title = "When Fast Growing Economies
Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China",
author = "Barry Eichengreen and Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin",
institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research", type =
"Working Paper", series = "Working Paper Series", number =
"16919", year = "2011", month = "March", doi = {10.3386/w16919},
URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919", abstract = {Using
international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of
cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence
suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly,
in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2
percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around
$17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level
that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more
provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in
countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.}, }