IL-06: Inside the Polls (or Why Duckworth Isn't Winning)
Following a comment at SoapBlox/Chicago, I took a closer look at
the internals on the IL-06 polls from Constituent Dynamics.
(IL-06 Cross-tabs for August and October.) What I found offers a
suggestion of some of the internal dynamics at work in the
district and may explain why Duckworth can't seem to pull away.
In August, Constituent Dynamics had IL-06 at 47% Duckworth, 46%
Roskam. In October it had barely changed; 47% Duckworth, 47%
Roskam.  Here are some other metrics on IL-6 between the August
27-29th survey and now (October 8-10th): Party AffiliationAugust
OctoberRepublican46%46%Independent27%28%Democratic28%26% Bush
ApprovalAugustOctoberApprove34%41%Undecided8%10%Disapprove58%49%
Head-to-headAugustOctoberStrong Roskam35%39%Weak
Roskam11%8%Undecided7%6%Weak Duckworth10%10%Strong
Duckworth38%37% Here's where it get's interesting...  Head-to-
headRepublicans onlyAugustOctoberStrong Roskam69%66%Weak
Roskam11%11%Undecided3%5%Weak Duckworth5%6%Strong Duck