Saturday, June 11, 2011  What Odds Would You Give on a Dirk Free
Throw?    After the jump, the answer.  Dirk Nowitzki’s career
FT% is 88%. For 2010-2011 it’s 89%. That means he misses about 1
in 10. So, the odds of missing two in a row is 1/10 x 1/10 =
1/100. Giving 100-1 odds is fair. Giving 1000-1 is a dumb bet.
But Tim Rogers didn't say when he made his bet. If it was right
after Dirk missed one free throw, then the odds of his missing
his next one is right back to 1 in 10. Don’t give more than 10-1
odds in that case.  Other readers calculated slightly different
odds based on using different history, say, just this year's
playoffs (in which Dirk is shooting better than his career 88%).
But the basic analysis stands.  Then, Tim Rogers clarified his
question, saying that he made his bet after Dirk missed the
first of two free throws. Tim Rogers explains his reasons for
giving 1000-1 odds in that case:  "But this isn’t COMPLETELY
driven by probability, is it? I’m thinking that if you looked at
a large sample