February 2015  
  
One of the most valuable exercises you can try if you want to understand
startups is to look at the most successful companies and explain why they were
not as lame as they seemed when they first launched. Because they practically
all seemed lame at first. Not just small, lame. Not just the first step up a
big mountain. More like the first step into a swamp.  
  
A Basic interpreter for the Altair? How could that ever grow into a giant
company? People sleeping on airbeds in strangers' apartments? A web site for
college students to stalk one another? A wimpy little single-board computer
for hobbyists that used a TV as a monitor? A new search engine, when there
were already about 10, and they were all trying to de-emphasize search? These
ideas didn't just seem small. They seemed wrong. They were the kind of ideas
you could not merely ignore, but ridicule.  
  
Often the founders themselves didn't know why their ideas were promising. They
were attracted to these ideas by instinct, because they were [living in the
future](startupideas.html) and they sensed that something was missing. But
they could not have put into words exactly how their ugly ducklings were going
to grow into big, beautiful swans.  
  
Most people's first impulse when they hear about a lame-sounding new startup
idea is to make fun of it. Even a lot of people who should know better.  
  
When I encounter a startup with a lame-sounding idea, I ask "What Microsoft is
this the Altair Basic of?" Now it's a puzzle, and the burden is on me to solve
it. Sometimes I can't think of an answer, especially when the idea is a made-
up one. But it's remarkable how often there does turn out to be an answer.
Often it's one the founders themselves hadn't seen yet.  
  
Intriguingly, there are sometimes multiple answers. I talked to a startup a
few days ago that could grow into 3 distinct Microsofts. They'd probably vary
in size by orders of magnitude. But you can never predict how big a Microsoft
is going to be, so in cases like that I encourage founders to follow whichever
path is most immediately exciting to them. Their instincts got them this far.
Why stop now?  
  

