Laplace independently discovered this result in 1774, a decade after its first presentation in "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." The philosophical interpretation that it inspired was proposed by Frank Ramsey in 1931, and was originally called the subjective interpretation. Its general interpretation has been controversial at times, as it seems to imply that one can infer causes from effects, but the derivation is a simple application of the definition of conditional probability. It is typically introduced through its applications to false positives in medical tests. Stating that the probability of A given B is the probability of B given
Laplace independently discovered this result in 1774, a decade after its first presentation in "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." The philosophical interpretation that it inspired was proposed by Frank Ramsey in 1931, and was originally called the subjective interpretation. Its general interpretation has been controversial at times, as it seems to imply that one can infer causes from effects, but the derivation is a simple application of the definition of conditional probability. It is typically introduced through its applications to false positives in medical tests. Stating that the probability of A given B is the probability of B given A times the probability of A divided by the probability of B, FTP, this is what probability theorem.
Laplace independently discovered this result in 1774, a decade after its first presentation in "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.
{Bayes’} Theorem