A Peek Into the Future of Commuting

The crystal ball foretells autonomous vehicles, sports cars used purely for sport.

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Like many people my age, watching Star Wars in the movie theater immediately made me a fan of science fiction. Not only because I thought space travel and shooting aliens with laser guns were cool, but the way people got around within their communities was fascinating, such as the car-in-a-tube system in I, Robot or the levitating vehicles in Blade Runner. They seem totally within the realm of possibility in our ever-changing transportation environment.

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As gasoline-powered cars are slowly giving way to electric vehicles (EVs) today, what will come next? How long will I need to wait until I can hover to work every day? For an answer, I sought the advice of Dave Muyres, a graduate and former vice president of Educational Initiatives at Art Center College of Design and co-founder of OnGoing Transportation. He is also part of the launch team of the NewNorth Center for Design in Business and speaks around the world on the future of the transportation industry. According to Muyres, there will be profound changes in the way people commute in the near future, but don't expect to see cars disappearing from the world altogether.

"Before the automobile, the horse was the dominant form of transportation. It was a wonderful way to get from Point A to Point B, but with time, it started to show its limitations, such as speed, comfort and range. Then the automobile came and surpassed the horse, yet horses still exist today and are wonderful forms of recreation and sport. I see this happening with cars. Although cars as we know them may be replaced by more purpose-built vehicles designed just for commuting, they will still be around for people who enjoy a spirited drive on weekends or competition at a racetrack," Muyres said.

He does admit that conventional automobiles no longer represent the most efficient form of transportation, so they'll be phased out gradually. In places like Japan, the shift has already begun, as car sales have been declining for several years. And the top-selling mode of transportation is the appliance-like Kei-car created solely for commuting. The U.S. will surely follow in these steps, and Muyres predicts that 20 to 40 years from now, autonomous vehicles will dominate the way Americans commute.

"These devices would be a blend of a bus and a personal car. They'll pick you up at your front door and drop you off exactly where you need to be. This eliminates the hassles associated with parking, maintenance and fueling. And I see EVs being the drivetrain of choice because by then, they'll be more practical, efficient and reliable," he explained.

So I asked him if these cars will travel in tubes like in I, Robot. Not likely, he said, because of the costs associated with creating an entirely new infrastructure. So look for government organizations to modify today's roads for new types of transport. One possibility is the Podcar, also known as PRT (Personal Rapid Transit), which is a personal-size vehicle without a driver that rides on rails situated above existing roads. Get onto a Podcar almost anywhere, press a button and you're whisked to your destination. Think of it as an expansive horizontal elevator.

When asked about the possibility of flying cars in downtown Los Angeles, he told me not to expect them any time soon.

"While I feel commuting in three dimensions is a possibility, the vehicles would most definitely need to be automated. Can you imagine the number of accidents with cars flying around in all dimensions? There are enough accidents in our two-dimensional commuting world as it is," he said.

Well, I for one am a bit disappointed that hovering around town won't happen in my lifetime, so I suppose I'll hold onto my gasoline-powered cars for the foreseeable future and look forward to the day when I can zap aliens with the latest laser gun.

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