New statistics suggest the South West is only region in UK projected to have a rise in Covid-19 cases

New figures show that the South West is projected to have the highest R rate in the UK.

Data released by the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has broken down the expected rise in cases of coronavirus per region in the UK.

The research suggests all areas of the UK will see the R value - the rate of the spread of infection - decrease, except for the South West.

  • The Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, shared the information collated by the LSHTM:

All regions are projected to have a 'halving rate' - the number of days it is expected to take for the number of cases to halve. In contrast, the South West is the only region suggested to have a 'doubling rate' of 190 meaning cases could continue to rise.

The South West has consistently had the lowest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the country since the beginning of the pandemic, which could point to the disease spreading more slowly and therefore not disappearing as quickly.

New confirmed cases of the virus in the West Country have been consistently low compared to other regions since lockdown began, suggesting a different recovery period as social distancing measures could just be having a different effect in more densely populated places.

However there has been concern that recent large gatherings in towns and cities across the region may have contributed to a possible second spike in cases.