COVID-19: GlobalData Sees No Need for Forecast Changes Yet

Joel Cooper Senior Director – Market Data and Intelligence

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• The potential impact on GDP and employment.









One key case is the Ebola epidemic that struck several West African countries between 2013-2016. This was the largest recorded outbreak of the disease since its discovery in 1976. Liberia, the Republic of Guinea and Sierra Leone were particularly impacted, experiencing significant disruption to everyday life and to their economies. Sierra Leone implemented nationwide lockdowns and mass quarantines. In total, circa 30,000 people were infected in the region and the fatality rate was circa 40%. However, during the key years 2014 and 2015, mobile subscription evolution in the Republic of Guinea and Sierra Leone proved resilient, experiencing no material impact.

Similarly, South Korea experienced no discernible negative impact on total mobile subscriptions or total fixed broadband subscriptions during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in mid-2015.

Furthermore, neither total mobile ARPU nor residential fixed broadband ARPU were obviously impacted by the MERS outbreak. Mobile ARPU declined fractionally in 2015 versus 2014, with some headwind caused by the dilution effect on ARPU of M2M/IoT. Residential fixed broadband experienced a decline in 2015, but this should be seen in the context of decline in the preceding years.

This is an unprecedented period for telecoms operators. As yet, it is unclear how the sector and specific telcos will be impacted by COVID-19. However, it would be prudent for most operators to avoid knee-jerk reactions and significantly change their internal forecasts (e.g., budgets and strategy plans) until evidence emerges that changes are warranted.Telcos in countries that are currently unaffected by COVID-19, or affected on a limited basis, should avoid complacency and closely monitor how operators in affected countries are being impacted – for example, at the network level or handset supply level – and how they are reacting. For a summary of early telco responses to date, please see COVID-19: What’s a Telco to Do?, March 13, 2020. Telcos in unaffected countries have a window of opportunity to prepare networks and services now, in anticipation of COVID-19 establishing itself in their countries.


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