Logical and Explanative Characteristics of Evolutionary Theories

Author: Klüver, Jürgen
Almanac: History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies

In a general sense human history is nothing else than a special kind of evolutionary processes, although an extremely complex one. Therefore, the logic of theories that intend to explain general features of historical processes should be of the same kind of evolutionary theories in general. In particular, if such historical theories shall have some explanative power the approach of time series analysis is not sufficient because such an approach remains by necessity on a phenomenological level. Hence, the task of constructing explanative theories of historical processes is twofold: On the one hand one has to look for the level on which causes for historical phenomena may be found and on the other hand one has to decide by which logical and/or mathematical structure such theories must be characterized. I shall first deal with the second question and then with the first one. Subsequently I sketch an according theory, based on a specific mathematical model, named the "Socio-Cultural Algorithm" (SCA).

The physicist John Barrow (1991) once asked if "the Universe is a structure or a program?" As was to be expected, his answer is "both": "Structure" refers to universal and time independent characteristics of the universe, usually represented by general equations. "Program" refers to the evolutionary aspect of the universe, i.e. the question not only of its origins but also of the driving forces of the evolutionary development. As "program" in a mathematical sense means "algorithm" Barrow's question is if mathematical theories of the universe should be represented as general systems of equations or by equally general algorithms. Obviously this depends on the particular Erkenntnisinteresse (Habermas), i.e. the specific questions one wants to answer by a mathematical theory.