With the Atlantic storm and hurricane season starting, forecasts so far anticipate an average season 

Hurricane Sandy

Forecasters, meteorologists and analysts agree that la Niña and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) will determine what to expect from the 2016 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season, which is about to start.  

In a recently released report, Colorado State University (CSU) forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach said: ”We continue to anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to weak La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season”. He added: “We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” 

According to the report, the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast remains 50%, slightly below the 52% average registered for the past decades. As well as this, the probability of a major hurricane hitting the Caribbean basin in the 2016 hurricane season is forecast as 40%, below the average of 42%. 

The uncertainty associated with the state of ENSO and whether La Niña is going to factor into the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is the key issue for insurance, reinsurance and ILS or cat bond interests to consider this year.