Valenzetti Equation

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This information was revealed in part through the alternate reality game
The LOST Experience
The Lost Experience
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Part of the equation seen on, though this may not necessarily be canon.

The Valenzetti Equation is the mathematical equation developed by the reclusive Princeton University mathematician Enzo Valenzetti. Its creation was the result of efforts made following the Cuban Missile Crisis by the United States and the Soviet Union to find a solution to the hostility and danger of imminent global disaster created by the Cold War. The equation was secretly commissioned through the UN Security Council and is used to predict the time of human extinction.


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Unknown man writing the Valenzetti Equation on a chalkboard in the Sri Lanka Video.

During the video, Alvar Hanso also states that the radio transmitter on the Island, will "broadcast the core numerical values of the Valenzetti Equation." The numbers: 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 and 42 are explained in the Sri Lanka Video as the numerical values to the core environmental and human factors of the Valenzetti Equation. Alvar Hanso also states in the video that the purpose of the DHARMA Initiative is to change the numerical values of any one of the core factors in the equation in order to give humanity a chance to survive by, effectively, changing doomsday. However, Thomas Mittelwerk reveals that as of 2006, they have failed to change the values through manipulating the environment, as the equation continues to arrive at the same six numbers. It is unknown how or if the most recent calculation of the equation is automatically reflected in the radio transmissions.

Rachel Blake also learned that the Hanso Foundation was forcing savants at the Vik Institute in Iceland to run the equation over and over. Somehow, five hieroglyphic symbols were involved in the calculations (Armand Zander described them as "representative"), the same hieroglyphs seen on the countdown timer in the Swan station.

The Blast Door Map included a reference to the equation; a zone on the island is marked as being of "low relevance to Valenzetti-related research activity".

The book

Valenzetti logo
The book's logo

Main Article: The Valenzetti Equation (book)

Gary Troup, the mystery writer who died on Oceanic Flight 815, wrote a now out-of-print book called The Valenzetti Equation about Valenzetti and his apocalyptic equation. Apparently Alvar Hanso bought all copies and now owns the only known copies, along with distribution rights etc.


An article was posted at Wikipedia about The Valenzetti Equation and Enzo Valenzetti and was subsequently cited by Speaker as "VERY accurate", indicating it is a legitimate part of The Lost Experience.

This was the part about the Valenzetti Equation:


left before the extinction of the human race. Although little is known about the
circumstances leading to the creation of the equation, mystery novelist Gary Troup put
forward an interesting theory in his sole non-fiction book "The Valenzetti Equation"
(a fair-to-middling tome which owes as much to popular conspiracy fiction as it does to
higher mathematics).

According to Troup—whose research is primarily based on interviews with "UN members"
willing to break their non-disclosure agreements, and recently declassified Soviet
files—the equation was the end result of a study commissioned by the United Nations
following the Cuban Missile Crisis. With their respective nations having just faced the
very precipice of mutually-assured destruction, the United States and Soviet Union—under
the auspices of the Security Council—secretly sought Valenzetti out as a disinterested
third party and charged him with the creation of an infallible mathematical algorithm for
the prediction of Armageddon.

Less than a year later, Valenzetti returned with his eponymous equation—which, reportedly,
is not unlike the Drake Equation (sometimes mistakenly referred to as the "Sagan Equation"),
but far greater in complexity. Because of the conditions of secrecy under which
Valenzetti produced his work, the totality of the equation has never been brought to light,
nor has his final tally for the number of years left before the human race extinguishes
itself with nuclear fire. Compounding the mystery is Valenzetti's steadfast refusal
to discuss his work (he is best known for allegedly torching his proof of Fermat's
last theorem after it was verified by a group of colleagues). Valenzetti’s mysterious
death and Gary Troup's disappearance (and presumed death) on Oceanic Airlines flight 815,
which was lost over the pacific on September 2004.

Doomsday equation

Something similar to the Valenzetti equation exists; it is not actually an equation but rather an argument presented using simple mathematics and is not at all mysterious. The Doomsday argument (DA) is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future lifetime of the human race given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far.

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