In five months’ time, citizens across the EU will elect a new European Parliament. Despite a string of national electoral upsets since the Eurozone crisis -- from Italy to Sweden, Germany to Greece -- the mood in Brussels is surprisingly relaxed as we enter the vote’s campaign phase. Perhaps with good reason: since Brexit, support for the EU has shot up. Nonetheless, as everyone prepares for the EU-wide poll, we should be careful not to lull ourselves into the belief that all is well in Europe. While support for the European project, measured in terms of support for membership, is high, many people remain deeply dissatisfied with the EU’s direction.

In 2015, we embarked on a data collection project called eupinions, the purpose of which is to capture the disposition of the European public. Since then, we’ve witnessed a picture emerging across the 27 member states: people generally support the idea of a united Europe, but are unhappy about the idea’s practical execution, as the surveys below attest.

eupinions trends/ EU Referendum

Imagine there is a referendum and you could decide whether your country stays as a member of the European Union. How would you vote?

Our data conveys a message of hope for the European project as Europeans have by no means deserted it. On the contrary, a clear majority of EU citizens, about 71 percent, would vote for their country to remain in the Union were a referendum held today. We find key differences in the largest member states: while Poles and Spaniards are on average very supportive, the Italians are currently much less so. Yet, wanting your country to remain in the EU does not necessarily mean that you like the way Europe conducts its business. When we look at people’s evaluations of the degree to which they think the EU is on the right path, a very different image emerges. Only 34 percent of EU citizens see it positively; again, the Polish are among the most positive and Italians the least.

eupinions trends/ Direction of the EU

Think about the European Union in general. Would you say that things are currently moving in the right direction?

The broader debates about Europe between political parties and elites are often framed in terms of a dichotomy of “in and out”, namely as a choice between blind support for the European project and further integration, on the one hand, or a retreat into nationalism, on the other. But public opinion is much more nuanced. European integration is a multifaceted process that can be presented from numerous angles. It is no surprise then that citizens may be conflicted about Europe. They often like the European idea in principle and appreciate the potential of common European policies, but at the same time show little appreciation for the current state of the EU and the way in which its policies are pursued. They like certain policies, while objecting to others. There are numerous reasons as to why European citizens are conflicted.

Should we be worried about the current state of public opinion ahead of the European election? Yes and no.

No, because being conflicted could be seen as a natural by-product of experiencing both the pros and the cons of membership. It may actually be demonstrative of a growing maturation of public opinion. Our data shows that people are far from always positive about the state of national politics. Yet, there might be reason to worry, too. Contrary to national systems of government, which may not be perfect but have become generally accepted, the EU seems like an odd bird, a political system that does not fit national political traditions. This means that skepticism about a particular policy, especially when it persists, may over time spill over into doubt about the system as such.

So how can the EU move forward? Political elites need to move beyond the false dichotomy of “in or out”. Political debates should not be framed in terms of either you are with us or against us. This just plays into the hands of Eurosceptics. Rather, politicians should create room for an open debate over specific European policies and the shifts in national sovereignty that they entail. “What sort of EU?”, is the constructive question for citizens and their parties to ask when going forward. A more attentive public makes it even more important for the EU to perform -- and not only in terms of outcomes regarding the way in which decisions and policies are made. The boundaries of technocratic politics have clearly been reached. More than ever, political leaders need to defend their choices for Europe.

The political and economic uncertainty facing the United Kingdom over Brexit has come as somewhat of a blessing in disguise for the EU as voices calling  for exit in other member states has dropped.

Yet, we should also learn lessons from Brexit, such as consistently asking: How can we ensure that people recognize themselves in European politics? How can they feel that they have a real choice about the kind of Europe they want? What are the ways to have some control over “what happens in Brussels”? By addressing these important questions, political elites in Brussels and across national capitals should not hide behind platitudes about why Europe is good or not, but rather provide people with a clear sense of which directions can be taken in the future for a Europe that works for everyone. 

This blogpost is the first in a series of papers exploring the state of the EU in the run-up to the May 2018 election. These inputs will debate politics, policies, and European public opinion. They will offer perspectives on the processes that shape the election and how the outcome will determine the Union’s policies of the future.