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Will we see more locust swarms in India now?

Locust swarms aren’t uncommon in north India, but the size and frequency is on the up, globally. And guess what is the reason...

India: Locust swarm, Climate change, global warming

Myths cast locusts as one of the signifiers of the world ending, especially when it comes on the heels of a pestilence. In this particular case, the truth is not very distant from fiction. Locusts and their patterns of swarming are closely related to unusual weather patterns across the globe. Climate change, if unchecked, could very well have catastrophic repercussions for our planet. 

This particular desert locust outbreak started in Rajasthan affecting over 90,000 hectares across 20 districts. These swarms have since spread to Punjab, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra ravaging crops along the way. And though Mumbai has seen more locusts on Whatsapp than outside their windows, the Delhi government issued an advisory for spraying pesticides to deal with a possible invasion. So what’s the deal with these creatures?

What exactly is a locust?

Locusts are insects that belong to the grasshopper family. They are essentially harmless in solitary conditions, when the environmental conditions are dry. But a weather change triggers a serotonin release in their brains and makes them more gregarious: as the first rains arrive, they start breeding abundantly and their numbers swell. This is commonly referred to as the locust plague. When their population becomes denser, they form swarms and start moving. They can cover vast distances and on landing they cause terrible devastation to the crops as well as the entire agricultural economy of a region.

Where has this threatening swarm of locusts in India come from?

This particular locust swarm migrated to the subcontinent through East Africa, Iran and Pakistan, causing significant damage to the areas they passed through. It burst on to the Indian social media when it entered the city of Jaipur on Monday, 25 May 2020. 

Locusts are not uncommon in Rajasthan. In fact, India has a Locust Warning Organisation under the central government. However, this year they have also entered the states of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh for the first time since 1993 and the state of Maharashtra for the first time since 1974. 

How far can a locust swarm travel?

Locust swarms can fly at a speed of more than 15km/h and travel about 5-130km or more in a day and can stay in the air as long as there is no green vegetation sighted.

How much damage can a swarm cause?

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, the desert locust is considered the most dangerous of all migratory pest species in the world. At this moment, the potential fallout of massive crop damage will be compounded by the losses that farmers are already suffering under COVID-19 lockdowns. The FAO says that a swarm of locusts spread across an area of one square kilometre can consume as much as what 35,000 people can in a single day. Locusts have a voracious appetite and one insect can eat equal to its own weight– about two grams–on a daily basis. And since a square kilometre swarm would contain about 40 million locusts, it can cause a significant amount of damage in a short period of time. 

What’s the link to climate change?

During quiet periods, known as recessions, desert locusts are usually restricted to the semi-arid and arid deserts of Africa, that receive less than 200 mm of rain annually. In normal conditions, locust numbers decrease either by natural mortality or through migration.

However, the last five years have been hotter than the 19th century industrial revolution and the global rise of industries and factories in 2009. Studies have linked a hotter climate to more damaging locust swarms. Africa has been majorly affected since 20 of the fastest warming countries globally are located here. Wet weather also favours multiplication of locusts. 

The above-average rain caused in Africa from October to December 2019 were up to 400 percent above normal rainfall amounts. These abnormal rains were caused by the Indian Ocean dipole, a phenomenon accentuated by climate change. When it rains, the locusts reproduce rapidly and in this gregarious phase, their bodily capabilities get enhanced and their appetite becomes more varied, leading to wanton destruction. Sudden unseasonal variations are increasing the locust crisis in different geographies with serious implications for our food and security. This is just another reminder of the many repercussions of climate change.

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