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Which nations are most responsible for climate change?


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There are many different ways to compare national responsibility for climate change. These include current emissions – which can be viewed in absolute figures or on a per capita basis – as well as historical emissions and the carbon footprint of consumption, including imported goods. There's also the question of whether you include deforestation, or even the extraction of fossil fuels. Each approach gives a different insight – and none tells the whole story on its own. Following is quick guide to the data. For an interactive version click the map below.

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Current CO2 emissions

The simplest and most common way to compare the emissions of countries is to add up all the fossil fuels burned and cement produced in each nation and convert that into CO2. According to 2011 data compiled by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the top 10 emitters by this measure are:

2. US: 5420 MT or 16.0%
3. India: 1967 MT or 5.8%
4. Russia: 1829 MT or 5.4%
5. Japan: 1243 MT or 3.7%
6. Germany: 810 MT 2.4%
7. South Korea: 609 MT or 1.7%
8. Canada: 555 MT or 1.6%
9. Indonesia: 490 MT or 1.4%
10. Saudi Arabia: 464 MT or 1.4%
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All greenhouse gas emissions

The problem with focusing purely on CO2 from burning fossil fuels is that it ignores other greenhouse gases and non-fossil-fuel sources of CO2. When these are included, the figures change considerably, with countries such as Brazil and Indonesia shooting up the list due to emissions caused by deforestation. Reliable data isn't available, but as of 2005, the top 10 emitters as measured in total greenhouse gases looked like this:

1. China: 7,216 MT or 16.4%
2. US: 6,931 MT or 15.7%
3. Brazil: 2,856 MT or 6.5%
4. Indonesia: 2,046 MT or 4.6%
5. Russia: 2,028 MT or 4.6%
6. India: 1,870 MT or 4.2%
7. Japan: 1,387 MT or 3.1%
8. Germany: 1,005 MT or 2.3%
9. Canada: 808 MT or 1.8%
10. Mexico: 696 MT or 1.6%
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Emissions per capita

Comparing nations can be misleading, given their vastly varied sizes and populations. To get a more meaningful picture, it's essential also to consider emissions on a per-person basis. From this perspective, the list is topped by small countries with energy-intensive industries such as Qatar and Bahrain, and the large developing nations such as India and China look significantly less polluting. Here's a selection of countries and their per-person CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement, as of 2010:

Qatar: 36.9 tonnes
United States: 17.3 tonnes
Australia: 17.0 tonnes
Russia: 11.6 tonnes
Germany: 9.3 tonnes
UK: 7.8 tonnes
China: 5.4 tonnes
World average: 4.5 tonnes
India: 1.4 tonnes
Africa average: 0.9 tonnes
Ethiopia: 0.1 tonnes
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As with national emissions, this list would look different if all greenhouse gases were included.

Historical emissions

Since carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere can stay there for centuries, historical emissions are just as important – or even more important – than current emissions. The tricky question of historical responsibility is one of the key tensions in the process of negotiating a global climate deal. The following figures from the World Resources Institute show the top 10 nations as measured by their cumulative emissions between 1850 and 2007. The US tops the list by a wide margin – though Chinese emissions have risen significantly since these data were assembled.

1. US: 339,174 MT or 28.8%
2. China: 105,915 MT or 9.0%
3. Russia: 94,679 MT or 8.0%
4. Germany: 81,194.5 MT or 6.9%
5. UK: 68,763 MT or 5.8%
6. Japan: 45,629 MT or 3.87%
7. France: 32,667 MT or 2.77%
8. India: 28,824 MT or 2.44%
9. Canada: 25,716 MT or 2.2%
10. Ukraine: 25,431 MT or 2.2%
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Of course, it's also possible to look at historical emissions per person, which turns things around yet again. In this view, the UK shoots close to the top of the rankings, while China drops towards the bottom.

1. Luxembourg: 1,429 tonnes
2. UK: 1,127 tonnes
3. US: 1,126 tonnes
4. Belgium: 1,026 tonnes
5. Czech Republic: 1,006 tonnes
6. Germany: 987 tonnes
7. Estonia: 877 tonnes
8. Canada: 780 tonnes
9. Kazakhstan: 682 tonnes
10. Russia: 666 tonnes
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Consumption footprints

Imported and exported goods add another layer of complexity to the equation. Many commentators argue that focusing on where emissions are produced is unfair, because much of the carbon output of countries such as China are generated as a result of producing goods that are ultimately consumed in richer nations. If emissions are measured in terms of consumption rather than production (that is, each country's exports are excluded from its footprint, and its imports added) the tables turn yet again.

This leads to arguably the best measure of current responsibility for climate change: the total carbon footprint of the average person in each nation. Figures are provided for a selection of countries below based on 2008 data published in a recent science paper.

Belgium 21.9
United States of America 20.2
Ireland 16.2
Finland 15.1
Australia 13.8
United Kingdom 11.5
China 4.3
Brazil 2.1
India 1.3
Nigeria 0.5
Malawi 0.2
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The numbers would have shifted quite a bit in the direction of developing countries since 2008 but not enough to remove the very obvious trend that total carbon footprints are much higher in the developed world.

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• This answer last updated: 10.07.12
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