Reports of the car’s death have been greatly exaggerated

The car is not going away. It might just spend a little more time in the garage, and it probably will be a lot more fuel efficient.

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the dying car culture, both in the news media and from transportation officials.  Outgoing Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is just the latest. On his blog, LaHood laid out the case for changes that are coming in how people move.

Outgoing U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. Photo/Rich Schultz, AP


I’ve been to every state in the country. And I’ve seen firsthand the power of strong, efficient and safe infrastructure. Transportation is the key to America’s economic comeback. Transportation connects us to opportunity. Transportation puts people to work. And transportation makes us more competitive in the global economy.

If you ask any CEO where they’d rather open up shop and hire…If you ask any parents where they’d rather raise a family…If you ask any young professional where they want to live and work—you hear the same things time and time again. People want infrastructure that reduces congestion and protects the environment. They want high-speed trains that shuttle between cities and light rail systems that connect to jobs. They want bike paths, bike shares, buses, and streetcars that give them the option to leave the car at home.

The proof is in the numbers. People took a record 10.5 billion trips on public transportation in 2012. Amtrak ridership has grown more than 40% in the last ten years. Over 20 American cities now operate bike shares, and each program has been met with incredible popularity. New York’s new CitiBike bike share has sold nearly 52,000 memberships.

This is what Americans want. This is what the future of American transportation looks like.

Now, we know that people will continue to drive cars. But we also know that we can get more for our money when we do. As a result of our historic fuel efficiency standards, the average car will get 54.5 miles per gallon.

To exceed 50 mpg, the average car will change in basic ways. At the very least, that kind of mpg is going to mean everyone’s driving on diesel or using a hybrid. It might not use gasoline at all. LaHood said as much at the Aspen Ideas Festival, according to this Atlantic write-up.

“By 2025, all of us, every family, will have some kind of hybrid or electric vehicle,” LaHood, who left office just a few days ago following the confirmation of his successor, told an audience Sunday at the Aspen Ideas Festival. “That’s just the way the car manufacturers are going since we’ve set [fuel economy] standards at 54.5 mpg. It’s all going to be hybrids or battery powered.”

What LaHood doesn’t expect, and in fact few people do, is a world without cars.

People of your generation, my kids’ generation, they’re probably going to have at least one car. But yes, a lot of communities like Chicago, L.A., they’re going to alternatives, and some people are even going to the Zipcar and such, but there are always going to be automobiles. People are always going to have at least one car.

The issue, in places like Houston where the city is becoming more of a city and less of an endless string of shopping malls and single-family homes, is what that means for transportation balance. The suburbs, through projects like City Centre, are starting to resemble the city more than the reverse.  Some places in Sugar Land and The Woodlands are being designed with walkability — once a foreign concept — in mind.  Part of that is to cater to younger people and seniors uninterested in driving.

A dip in driving is happening, sure. Maybe that’s the death of the culture all about cars.

And maybe everything that dies some day comes back.

So, in the end, the highway will still be jammed with broken heroes on a last-chance power drive. They’ll just be using hybrid engines.

My sincerest apologies to Bruce Springsteen.

Dug Begley