Winter weather could finally be coming to Central New York

Despite a milder-than-normal start to the season in an area known for snow, meteorologists predict snowstorms will hit the area, possibly starting this weekend.

Accuweather is watching moisture from the Gulf of Mexico begin to swing through the southern Rocky Mountains on a trek towards the Great Lakes, where it will mingle with cold air coming down out of Canada. By Sunday, the system looks like it will be in the northeast.

As for a white Christmas, a similar system will be lining up again closer to the holiday.

So far, this December seems to be a repeat of last December, said Paul Walker, senior meteorologist at Accuweather.


Data shows that December of 2011 was 6.3 degrees above normal. So far, this month is 8.1 degrees above normal.

"We are off to a mild start this December, but it should turn colder over the next few weeks," Walker said.

The reason for the odd weather last year? The cold air was moving into the area but would not stay, instead being pushed out by warmer air currents. It didn't have staying power.

Meteorologists say they rely on a number of computer models to determine snow falls. They look for consistencies among different models and use other data and general weather patterns to make a prediction.

Why can't forecasters pick just one model?

"Each of the computer models handles the atmosphere slightly differently -- different rules, different physics, different data points -- so they come out with different answers," Accuweather meteorologist Elliot Abrams said. "One problem with the models is, even though one model may handle today's storm better than another model, there's no assurance it will handle the next one better."

For example, five days out from a storm in the Northeast, meteorologists have a good idea of general areas that may get snow for a Christmas time storm.

Long range meteorologists at Accuweather predict a pattern changing later in winter where colder weather will bring above or near normal snowfall.

"We'll have to see," Walker said, noting that timing and amounts of snowfall are still in question.