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Thu, Oct 27, 2005 - Page 9　News List

Facing nature's fury

Mankind is better equipped than ever before to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, but we need to start applying the science more effectively

By Jeffrey Sachs


The Pakistan earthquake continues a streak of shocking natural disasters during the past year: the Indian Ocean tsunami, killer droughts in Niger and other parts of Africa, hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Central American mudslides and Portugal's wildfires.

These events are unrelated, and humankind's vulnerability to natural hazards is as old as our species. Yet there are also commonalities -- and warnings to us all: we are not prepared for these massive shocks, more of which are certain to come.

Massive population growth has exposed vast numbers of people to new kinds of extreme vulnerability. There are now 6.5 billion people on the planet, almost 4 billion people more than 50 years ago. Current trends, according to the UN, will push the world's population up to around 9.1 billion by 2050.

As the population rises, billions of people crowd into Earth's vulnerable areas -- near coastlines battered by storms and rising sea levels, on mountainsides susceptible to landslides and earthquakes, or in water-stressed regions plagued by drought, famine and disease. Typically, the poorest of the poor are pushed into the riskiest places to live and work -- and also to die when natural catastrophes strike.

Many of the key hazards are increasing in frequency and intensity. Climate change is partly responsible. Both the number and strength of hurricanes are most likely increasing as a result of rising sea-surface temperatures caused by man-made global warming. Earth is set to warm further in the decades ahead, bringing more and bigger fires, mudslides, heat waves, droughts and powerful hurricanes.

Similarly, we are also seeing the emergence and spread of new infectious diseases, such as AIDS, SARS and avian flu. As human populations crowd new parts of the planet and come into contact with new animal habitats, new infectious diseases spread from animals to humans. Such is the case with AIDS and avian flu. Other infectious diseases are likely to emerge, or to become more severe (as with dengue fever in Asia this year), as a result of changes in climate and interaction between human and animal habitats.

Another common element in all of these disasters is our shocking lack of preparedness, especially to help the poorest members of society. After Hurricane Katrina hit the US, we discovered that President George W. Bush had appointed a crony rather than a professional as head of the US' emergency relief agency. Equipment and personnel needed to address the crisis were halfway around the world in Iraq.

Likewise, Pakistan was substantially ill-equipped to deal with the recent earthquake, in part because, like the US, Pakistan over-spends on its military and under-spends on public health and emergency preparedness. International relief agencies are also starved for cash and resources.

Governments should be taking some basic steps. First, they should be making careful assessments of the specific kinds of risks their countries face, including risks from epidemics, climate change, extreme weather events and earthquakes. Such assessments require establishing and maintaining a system of high-level and high-quality scientific advising. Bush, for example, would vastly improve US and global security if he started listening to scientists and paid less attention to political lobbyists regarding the growing risks from man-made climate change.

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