The ScienceBlogs Book Club













  1. #1 MoM
    July 9, 2010

    As one whose ancestor contracted Hong Kong flu in 1968 and “recovered” only to die of kidney failure 3 weeks later, I have to question the popularly accepted “30-40,000 excess deaths” attributed to influenza. Yes, his influenza symptoms had subsided, but had he not gotten influenza, his kidneys would likely have lasted him another dozen years, but influenza is mentioned nowhere in accounts of his death. This gets repeated countless times each year. My point is that 30-40,000 represents those deaths attributed to influenza and represents just the tip of the iceberg.

  2. #2 Steve Schoenbaum
    July 9, 2010

    MoM’s comment on the death of an ancestor in the 1968-69 pandemic of influenza and the fact that he died of kidney failure a few weeks after the influenza illness and that influenza was not mentioned in accounts of his death. I infer that it was probably not mentioned or coded on his death certificate. This raises an interesting point about one of the traditional measures of impact of influenza – so-called “excess mortality” and how it is calculated. All year long some death certificates have coded causes of death that include “influenza”, and during influenza epidemics there are many deaths that occur where none of the coded causes of death include “influenza”. As I recall there also is some evidence that the more publicity that surrounds an influenza epidemic, which is not necessarily a measure of the severity of the epidemic but rather the interest of the media in it’s occurrence(!), the high the percentage of total deaths that will have “influenza” as a coded cause. For this reason there are multiple ways of calculating the “excess mortality” associated with influenza epidemics. One of those, involves looking at just those death certificates where “influenza” is one of the coded causes. While it may not be the most accurate estimate of the impact of influenza, it can be tallied very quickly. Indeed, CDC has had a process for many decades for getting weekly reports of such deaths from large cities in the US and getting a very quick handle on the impact and distribution of influenza A (which is generally associated with more excess deaths than influenza B). Another method, however, which gives rise to the 30-40,000 annual excess death estimate, is to look at total deaths and compare them to the rates that would be “expected” had there been no influenza circulating that week or month. One can get such estimates of expected deaths because, with influenza not always occurring during the same weeks or months each year and with better surveillance of viruses causing cases of respiratory illness around the country, one can state reasonably clearly just when there is no significant occurrence of influenza in various areas.
    By calculating total excess deaths, even persons who were not recognized to have had influenza but had a subsequent fatal complication or persons whose death certificates just didn’t include a code for “influenza” would still be counted. So, it is quite possible that MoM’s ancester was counted in the estimates of total excess mortality attributable to influenza back in 1968-69.
    One last point about excess mortality is that it generally follows the onset of outbreaks of influenza respiratory illnesses by a week or two. Why? Relatively few people have fulminant influenza, which can occur, and go from being reasonably healthy to dead of overwhelming viral infection/pneumonia in just a couple of days. More commonly people have “the flu”, may even recover from the initial illness, but then develop a secondary bacterial pneumonia or develop heart failure, etc, are hospitalized, treated unsuccessfully and then die. That “takes time” and accounts for the lag.

  3. #3 saç ekimi
    July 12, 2010

    Hi all;



  4. #4 Juicy handbags
    September 5, 2010

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  5. #5 hemroid cream
    January 24, 2011

    Karabükspor’a karşı ilk kez sahaya çıkacağı maçta ilk golüne ulaşmayı hedefliyor. Alex, Fenerbahçe formasını giydiği bundan önceki 6 sezonda Karabükspor Süper Lig’de yer alamadığı için rakipleriyle karşılaşma imkanı bulamamıştı. 7. sezonunu geçirdiği Türkiye’de ligde en çok golü Gençlerbirliği filelerine (9 gol) gönderen Brezilyalı futbolcu, Ankaraspor’a 8, Gaziantepspor ve Ankaragücü’ne de 7’şer gol attı. Fenerbahçe’nin ilk yabancı gol kralı olan, bu sezon da gol krallığı yarışında Karabüksporlu Emenike ile birlikte 10 gol ile zirvede bulunan Alex’in, ligde attığı toplam gol sayısı da 104’ü buldu.

  6. #6 Sesli Chat
    February 7, 2012

    Bir yıl ya da iki önce açık grip kontrol ve kişisel dikkatimi başka acil sorunlar için savaşa gelgit düşünebilirsiniz alanında yeterli “profesyoneller” Şimdi orada anladım.
