Afghanistan's newfound mineral wealth could fuel further conflict

The discovery of vast mineral reserves is a frustrating reminder of how much better life could be for the Afghan people
A U.S. soldier keeps watch at the site of an explosion in Logar Afghanistan


The "blood diamond" phenomenon – diamonds mined in African war zones that are then sold on to finance an insurgency or a warlord's grip on a region – is well known, but other examples of misused mineral wealth abound. Afghanistan may not have diamonds, but it does have an insurgency, the country is packed with warlords and many of the minerals present in Afghanistan are the cornerstones of conflicts in other parts of the world. You don't have to look far to find an example of how minerals can fuel conflict rather than end it. One of Afghanistan's closest neighbours is mired in conflict that is partly rooted in mineral wealth.

In India, a hidden war against the government is raging in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh. The basis for this conflict is political and social. The insurgents, called Nexalites, are descended ideologically from Mao Zedong and show no signs of abandoning their fight against what they believe is to be an unfair, caste-bound capitalist system. The Indian government stepped up its campaign against the guerillas in 2006, in part because of what lies beneath the forest floor in Southern Chhattisgarh – some of India's largest reserves of iron ore, coal, bauxite and limestone. India's largest corporations have moved into the region to harvest these resources and some £1.6bn worth of contracts have already been signed. Nonetheless, conflict remains endemic.

Although you've probably never heard of this war, it is no trivial matter. Estimates put the insurgent forces at around 4,500 fighters and around half the population supports the Nexalites. Some of that support is coerced and some is willing. Upwards of 50,000 people have been displaced, two-thirds of the forest is off-limits to the Indian government and numerous posts from doctors to police are unfilled because of the war. The rebels set up "people's courts" to punish and execute what they call capitalist collaborators. In 2009, the Indian prime minister concluded that the state was losing the fight against the Nexalites – not a good sign for a superpower on the rise.

India is, perhaps, not a very good comparison; it is a much larger state than Afghanistan and only a portion of the country is caught up in this conflict. It is also a rather strong democracy, with centralised government and a self-funding military. Delhi is in a much stronger position to fight an insurgency than Kabul. Perhaps a better example would be the endemic conflict in places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Sudan, and Rwanda. Not exactly a good list to join – but it may be where Afghanistan finds itself.

It is far too early to tell which way the discovery of these vast mineral deposits will play out, but I doubt it will have much effect on current Nato operations. It is common knowledge that Afghanistan is well endowed with various minerals. Just last year, the Chinese began digging into the ground in Logar Province to access the 240m tonnes of copper ore accessible via surface mines. But historically most of Afghanistan's resources have not been exploited – in part due to the constant war. The rugged terrain, lack of infrastructure, primitive methods and out-fashioned technology further complicate the excavation of minerals.

The good news is that these same variables also hinder the ability of the Taliban and Afghan warlords to exploit these resources. As for China's recent involvement, the positive benefits – if they materialise – will be found far in the future. While they may make a positive contribution to a lasting peace, ultimately such a project does not remove the fundamental political conflict between the insurgent forces and the Afghan government.

In the end, the rediscovery of Afghanistan's mineral wealth is just another frustrating reminder that a far better future could exist if only this fractured state could pull itself together. That cohesion will only come through a political process and at the moment such a process is sorely lacking. And it will not occur if minerals become yet another factor contributing to Afghanistan's endless war.