Who Will Win the Presidential Vote Among Veterans?

By Sam Pauken


 What do the polls say?



What’s going on here?



Although there is little or no data distinguishing active duty military personnel and veterans, there is a contrast in political views among officers and enlisted personnel.  Jason Dempsey, a Lieutenant Colonel in the Army and Bob Shapiro have done a fair amount of ground-breaking research into attitudes and trends in the military and offer some of the following analysis:

·      2/3rds of majors and other high-ranking officers describe themselves as conservative

·      32% of enlisted personnel are conservative

·      23% are liberal

·      45% are moderates

The data for all personnel closely resembles the spectrum of civilians.  This can be partially explained by the demographic divide, as officers are predominantly white and have a college education, while enlisted men have a higher proportion of minorities and generally only have a high school diploma.  People in these demographics generally align themselves with the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively.  For example, with regards to the Army, many of today’s senior officers entered the army thirty to forty years ago.  During that time, the Republican Party was strong on national defense, while the Democratic Party was not.

What does this mean for the election?

As the Reuters/Ipsos poll only considers post-Gulf War families, it doesn’t make sense to contrast it with the Gallup, which considers all veterans. If anything, the Reuters poll would indicate that young military personnel and veterans would tend to vote for President Obama, which is expected from many people from younger generations.

In light of this, the results of the Gallup poll are not unreasonable. When one considers these older veterans from the Vietnam and Korean wars who are generally conservative, and compares them with today’s officers and young servicemen, the Gallup poll results are validated.

Given that the majority of the military and veterans support Romney instead of the current President and Commander-in-Chief, with a still-shaky economy, the President needs all the support he can get. Not having the support of the military and its veterans does not bode well for him.