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Dear Tom, What is the most difficult weather...

January 23, 2000|By Tom Skilling, chief meteorologist at WGN-TV.

Dear Tom,

What is the most difficult weather phenomena to predict a path for; hurricanes, tornadoes or a panhandle-hook blizzard?

Doug Kaiser, Green Bay, Wis.

Dear Doug,

No storm is easy to forecast, and each type of storm presents a unique forecast problem.

Tornadoes move with the path of the parent thunderstorm which is obtained through analysis of radar data and upper winds. However, since tornadoes are short-lived, it is difficult to detect their presence and issue timely warnings for areas in the twisters path.

Winter storms, including panhandle-hook blizzards, are associated with strong upper-air features that allow computer models to produce a more accurate surface track forecast. However, as these storms move eastward from the plains, a small deviation in the predicted path can result in crucial forecast errors of precipitation type or amount at any given location.

Hurricanes develop in the tropics in areas of weak upper flow. Their long-term paths are hard to determine because of the lack of definite steering currents. Fortun-ately, hurricanes usually move slowly and are visible on satellite pictures, which allow meteorologists to continuously monitor their paths and issue timely warnings.



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