Video: Expert: Evacuation zone may not be adequate

  1. Transcript of: Expert: Evacuation zone may not be adequate

    LESTER HOLT, co-host (Tokyo): We're bringing in Edwin Lyman now. He is a nuclear energy expert and joins us this morning from Washington . Mr. Lyman , we appreciate you being with us. I'll start off by asking you point blank, what is a meltdown, how serious is it?

    Mr. EDWIN LYMAN (Senior Scientist, Union of Concerned Scientists): Well, a meltdown is when the radioactive fuel in the core of a reactor overheats to the extent that the uranium ceramic fuel actually begins to turn to a liquid, to melt. And the danger is that if the entire core melts, it becomes something like a lava, which can then slump down to the bottom of the metal vessel that it's contained in, and it's so corrosive that it can eat through the bottom of that vessel and then drop to the floor of the containment building , and then the ability to contain the radiation becomes much, much more challenging. So the goal is to prevent a full...

    HOLT: I don't want to trivialize this...

    Mr. LYMAN: Sorry.

    HOLT: ...but -- yeah. I don't want to trivialize this, but years ago there was a movie called " The China Syndrome ," and it was about a nuclear accident and the thought that this meltdown would go all the way through the earth. Would it be that catastrophic? Would it -- would it not only put radiation in the air, but also into the earth?

    Mr. LYMAN: Well, probably not. The most likely scenario is that it melt -- the molten fuel would eat through the sides of the containment building and then most of the gases and other vapors would escape to the sides and probably end up in the atmosphere. So the most likely path would be upward.

    HOLT: They've got a 20 kilometer exclusion zone right now that works out to a little over 12 miles. Would they have to expand that? And would there be any warning for the folks living in the area if the situation became exponentially worse?

    Mr. LYMAN: I believe that the 20-kilometer zone is not adequate. If there is a severe accident, a loss of containment, there could be severe contamination for probably hundreds of miles downwind, and I'm not sure that they are adequately educating the public about that potential risk. So I'm quite concerned.

    HOLT: The prevailing winds would blow east out over the water, and that leads to my next question. Does this have a global impact? When you get a radioactive release, does it continue to sail around the world and just to be at the whim of the winds, the wind patterns?

    Mr. LYMAN: Well, what we saw after the Chernobyl accident was that, yes, it actually sent radiation all around the northern hemisphere. Of course, most of that, the most severely contaminated areas were settled within hundreds of miles of the plant. And in this case I would expect that we would probably be able to detect some of the radioactivity emitted from the plant, but at this point, I don't think it would pose a serious health threat to the United States .

    HOLT: Well, it is all very scary stuff for those of us laymen, and we hear nuclear in terms of meltdown. Edwin Lyman , we do appreciate you coming on and offering your expertise this morning. It's very helpful.

NBC, and news services
updated 3/13/2011 9:50:24 AM ET 2011-03-13T13:50:24

Key details:

  • Japan's prime minister says crisis is country's worst since World War II
  • Police estimate more than 10,000 people have been killed in one area
  • Second nuclear reactor explosion feared
  • 22 people confirmed to have radiation poisoning following first blast
  • 60-year-old man found alive 9 miles out to sea, clinging to roof of his house



Kan said in a television address that the nation's future would be decided by the choices made by each person and urged everyone to join in their determination to rebuild the nation.

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According to officials, more than 1,400 people were killed — including 200 people whose bodies were found Sunday along the coast — and more than 1,000 were missing in the disasters. Another 1,700 were injured.

However, police said the death toll was likely far higher in the prefecture of Miyagi alone.

Miyagi police spokesman Go Sugawara said Sunday that the prefecture's police chief told a gathering of disaster relief officials that his estimate for deaths in the prefecture was more than 10,000. Miyagi was one of the areas worst affected by the earthquake and tsunami.

Nuclear fears
Adding to the country's woes, there were fears that a second nuclear reactor at the Dai-ichi power plant would explode Sunday and problems with three reactors at another power plant.

On Saturday, Japan's nuclear safety agency reported that radioactive cesium and iodine were detected near the Dai-ichi power plant after one of its reactor exploded. Authorities said the blast did not damage the containment structure surrounding the reactor.


Twenty-two people have been contaminated by radiation.

Video: Meltdown fears at damaged nuclear reactor

Japan's Meteorological Agency said it had upgraded the magnitude of Friday's catastrophic earthquake to 9.0. The agency earlier measured it at 8.8. The U.S. Geological Survey measured the quake at 8.9.



Japan's government has ordered 100,000 troops to join the rescue and recovery effort.

Teams searched for the missing along hundreds of miles of the coast.

In one extraordinary story of survival , a 60-year-old man was found clinging to the roof of his wrecked house some nine miles offshore after two days at sea. He was said to be in "good condition."




Helicopters also plucked survivors from an elementary school in Sendai.




Map: Japan earthquake (on this page)




New evacuations ordered


Video: Scale of Japanese disaster reveals grim equation






Video: Shattered Sendai spends another night in darkness


Slideshow: Devastation in Japan after quake (on this page)





Supplies running low



Interactive: Japan earthquake aftershocks (on this page)




Photos: After Japan's earthquake and tsunami - week 8

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Explainer: The 10 deadliest earthquakes in recorded history


  • 1: Shensi, China, Jan. 23, 1556

    Magnitude about 8, about 830,000 deaths.


  • 2: Tangshan, China, July 27, 1976

    Chinese Earthquake
    Keystone  /  Getty Images


  • 3: Aleppo, Syria, Aug. 9, 1138

    Magnitude not known, about 230,000 deaths.


  • 4: Sumatra, Indonesia, Dec. 26, 2004

    Aerial images show the extent of the devastation in Meulaboh
    Getty Images  /  Getty Images

    Magnitude 9.1, 227,898 deaths.


  • 5: Haiti, Jan 12, 2010

    Haitians walk through collapsed building
    Jean-philippe Ksiazek  /  AFP/Getty Images

    Magnitude 7.0. According to official estimates, 222,570 people killed.


  • 6: Damghan, Iran, Dec. 22, 856

    Magnitude not known, about 200,000 deaths.



    7.8 magnitude, about 200,000 deaths.


  • 8: Ardabil, Iran, March. 23, 893

    Magnitude not known, about 150,000 deaths


  • 9: Kanto, Japan, Sept. 1, 1923

    Kanto Damage
    Hulton Archive  /  Getty Images
    7.9 magnitude, 142,800 deaths.


  • 10: Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, Oct. 5, 1948

    7.3 magnitude, 110,000 deaths.



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