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(E pi !!)epidemiological investigation doc. doycheva


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(E pi !!)epidemiological investigation doc. doycheva

  1. 1. EpidemiologicalInvestigation of Outbreaks Department of Epidemiology Assoc. Prof. V. Doycheva, MD
  2. 2. Definition of an Outbreak An outbreak is commonly defined as: The occurrence in a community or region ofcases of an illness with a frequency clearly inexcess of normal expectancy. The number ofcases indicating presence of an outbreak willvary according to the infectious agent, size andtype of population exposed, previousexperience or lack of exposure to the disease,and time and place of occurrence. Therefore, thestatus of an outbreak is relative to the usualfrequency of the disease in the same area,among the same population, at the same seasonof the year.
  3. 3. Epidemiological Investigation Regardless of the communicable disease,the procedure for the investigation of asuspected outbreak is the same: 1. Establish the existence of an outbreak Compare current information with previousincidence in the community during the sametime of year to determine if the observednumber of cases exceeds the expected.Compare available information about newcases with a predetermined definition of anoutbreak.
  4. 4. 2. Confirm the diagnosis Analyze clinical histories of cases andhave standard laboratory tests performedto confirm or reject the suspecteddiagnosis and to determine the type ofagent associated with die illness(bacterial, viral, other). 3. Establish the case definition andcount cases Develop a case definition and establishmethods for identifying and countingcases.
  5. 5. 4. Relate the outbreak to time, place andperson Characterize the outbreak according to person,place or time by interviewing known or selectedcases to determine common experiences, such aswhen they became ill (time), where they becameinfected (place) and who they are (person). 5. Determine who is at risk of becoming ill Count cases and relate these counts to theappropriate population to find the group(s) at risk.Contact those who can provide information on theillness or about the environmental circumstancesthat contributed to die outbreak.
  6. 6. 6. Formulate a tentative hypothesis Formulate a tentative hypothesis toexplain the most likely cause, source anddistribution of cases. 7. Compare the hypothesis with theestablished facts The hypothesis will direct the course ofthe investigation, and will be tested by thevarious data gathered during theinvestigation. Several successivehypotheses may be required.
  7. 7. 8. Plan a detailed epidemiologic investigation Determine from the collected data what otherinformation is needed and what resources areavailable to test the hypothesis. Develop orobtain interview forms, gather samplingequipment, and alert people who will take part inthe investigation. Carry out the investigation. Interview peoplewho are similar or who had similar experiencesto the ill with respect to time or place but who arenot ill (controls); gather appropriate communityand environmental information; investigatepotential sources of the responsible agent andfactors that contribute to the outbreak; andobtain specimens and samples.
  8. 8. Summarize and interpret all of the informationthat has been collected and examine the resultsof laboratory tests that have been conducted.Construct epidemic curves, calculate rates,develop appropriate tables and charts, applystatistical tests to the data, and interpret thedata. On the basis of the available data and theappropriate calculations, accept or reject thehypothesis. For a hypothesis to be accepted, thepatterns of disease in the host must relate to thenature of the agent, its source, its mode oftransmission and the contributory factors thatallowed the outbreak to occur. If the hypothesisis rejected, a second hypothesis must bedeveloped and additional information must begathered.
  9. 9. 9. Prepare a written report A written report should summarize the investigationand be prepared as soon as the investigation iscompleted. This report should include the variousinformation listed in the example referenced (refer to"Report of an Investigation of an Outbreak"). 10. Implement control and prevention measures Effective control measures should be developedusing the evidence that has been uncovered. Use theinformation that has been collected during theinvestigation to control the current outbreak and also toprevent future problems in the community. Initiate orintensify surveillance of the disease and agent. Ifimminent danger exists, control measures should beinitiated after a tentative hypothesis has been formed.
  10. 10. Report of an Investigation of an Outbreak Reason for Investigation • Include a statement describing how the outbreakwas identified (i.e., unusual number of cases). Investigation • Present a general summary characterizing die outbreak by person, place and time. -Include the date the investigation began and individuals interviewed. -State the number of cases ill and number of individuals at risk.
  11. 11. - If the number of cases is small (e.g., 25 orless), a table may be constructed such thatrelevant data ( age, gender, date of onset) arepresented for each individual. - If the number of cases is large, the data maybe summarized and presented in tabular orgraphical format (e.g., age distribution, epidemiccurve). - Compare the observed number of caseswiththat expected for the same populationduring the same time period.
  12. 12. • Present a clinical description of cases - Describe the symptoms and physicalfindings, including the results of laboratory examinations. - If a table of individual cases is included,incorporate the more important clinical and laboratory findings in the table; otherwise, summarize the findings numerically. - Present a summary of the epidemiologic data and findings.
  13. 13. - State pertinent information describing the distribution of cases which would indicate the source ( outbreak confined tocustomers of a particular restaurant). - If an outbreak is localized to a group, such as an institution or in connection with adinner, provide the total population at risk(total population potentially exposed).
  14. 14. Present in tabular form any associatedindividual characteristics (e.g., age, history of previous attack, immunization) with the cases. Where possible, compare these case characteristics with unaffected individuals. - Present in tabular form, the association of cases with various environmental factors such as water, milk supply, foods, etc. Compare these cases with the general population when possible.
  15. 15. • Summarize results of an investigation of common food and drink supplies - If the outbreak investigation required data from die water or milk supply, summarize the findings of the engineer, public health inspector or veterinarian. - Summarize the results of bacteriologicexamination of any other food suspected as the source.
  16. 16. - Provide details of preparation, handling and storage of suspected foods, brands of these foods, and places from which they were purchased. - State information as to illnesses or infections among those handling the suspected food.
  17. 17. Discussion as to Source • State reasons for suspecting or excludingmilk, water, and each article of food or otherpossible medium of infection. Conclusions • State your opinion regarding: - Nature of the illness. - Source of the outbreak. - Method of transmission
  18. 18. Summary of Control Measures Implemented or Recommended• State control measure for immediatecontrol.• State control measures for futureprevention.