Making Beliefs Pay Rent (In Anticipated Experiences)

  • Beliefs should have consequences
  • Beliefs should constrain future experiences
  • Empiricism is the process of asking what experiences our beliefs predict and, more importantly, which experiences they prohibit
  • When arguing about beliefs, ask about what you would expect to observe as a result of those beliefs
  • If you can’t find the difference, you’re arguing about what you should put on the label for a particular experience, not the experience itself

A Fable of Science and Politics

  • Science fiction parable in which people have been driven from the Earth’s surface
  • Have no idea what the sky looks like - only knowledge comes from books that describe the sky as “cerulean”
  • Debate arises as to whether cerulean is a shade of blue or a shade of green
  • This debate takes on political dimension and leads to violence
  • As a result, the question of whether the sky is blue or green isn’t a simple question about color - it’s entangled with many other social and economic beliefs
  • One day, there’s an earthquake and a path to the surface opens up
  • What happens next depends on who travels that path
    • Aditya (blue): sees the color of the sky as vindication for all that the blue faction has fought for - decides to end the truce between blue and green
    • Barron (green): sees color of the sky as proof that the universe is evil
    • Charles (moderate blue): sees knoweldge of the color of the sky as dangerous - vows to come back and seal up the path
    • Daria, (green): forces herself to look at the sky and change her mind, even though it’s hard and painful
    • Eddin, (green): struck by the pointlessness of so much conflict over such a simple question
    • Ferris - just notices the color and proceeds to explore the rest of the surface world

Belief In Belief

  • It’s often much easier to believe that one ought to believe something than it is to actually believe that thing
  • People often claim to believe something even when they don’t anticipate the experiences that are entailed by that belief
  • These people often make excuses to pre-emptively explain away experimental results that contradict the beliefs they profess to hold
  • In many ways, people who genuinely believe something are easier to convince because you can debate them with evidence and find concrete points of disagreement

Bayesian Judo

  • Eliezer encounters someone who asserts that Artificial Intelligence is impossible because intelligence requires a soul and only God can create souls
  • Eliezer replies that this means that if he can create an Artifical Intelligence, it means this person’s religion is false
  • Person attempts to retreat by saying that they were referring to emotional experiences
  • Eliezer replies by saying that if the AI appears to have emotional experiences, it proves the religion wrong
  • Person says that they might have to agree to disagree
  • Eliezer uses Aumann’s agreement theorem to assert that rationalists cannot agree to disagree

Pretending To Be Wise

  • Many people signal wisdom by refusing to pass judgement
  • There is a real difference between suspending judgement and asserting that every point of view is equally valid
  • There is a real difference between skepticisim and relativism
    • Skepticism is doubting a particular answer, but acknowledging that there is an answer to be found
    • Relativism is thinking that all answers are equally valid in some sense
  • Neutrality is a judgement too; refusing to choose sides is a choice in itself
  • There is a difference between passing neutral judgement and refusing to pass judgement
  • Pretending that either of the above is a mark of deep wisdom that sets you ahove everyone else is folly