Frost-freeze, then drought-heat, spells disaster for many


"This has been a tough year for many of our farmers," said Deacon, emergency management and administrative law coordinator for the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.


"The federal designation will aid Michigan's farmers for crop losses due to the ongoing heat and drought conditions," said Gov. Rick Snyder. "This disaster designation ensures our farmers and producers have access to additional federal resources to overcome Mother Nature's challenges."

That disaster designation was the second for Michigan in 2012.

The first disaster

"Back in the spring and early summer with the fruit growers, people talked about this being as bad as in the 1940s," Deacon said.



"For apples and cherries, most growers had less than 10 percent of their crop. Not everybody, but most," Nye said.

That does not mean that next year there won't be a good crop, he added. But this year it spells fewer apples during Michigan's traditional fall apple-picking season.

The frost-freeze also decimated peaches, pears and juice grapes, especially in the southwest corner of the state. However, wine grapes are "doing really well," said Jeremy Nagel, media relations specialist for Michigan Farm Bureau. It depends on the crop, and where it in the state it was planted.

The second disaster
And then there's the drought. Michigan producers haven't seen one like it since 1988.

"The drought over the summer is mostly about corn, soybeans and hay," Nagel said.


"There are crops to harvest in Michigan, and that puts us in a better position than others in other states," Deacon said. "Some look good, some not. Sometimes we won't know until the fall harvest, like with corn and soybeans.

The designation allows farmers to know that the government assumes they've been impacted, and they can start working with the USDA Farm Service Agency at the local level to get loans, to buy necessities like feed for their livestock.

Corn and soybeans planted in the spring "got off to a great start" compared with last year's beginning with too much rain, said Bob Boehm, head of the Michigan Farm Bureau Commodity and Marketing Department. There was good germination. But then, during pollination, the drought and high temperatures hit, which caused "a multitude of challenges.

"Every one of those kernels takes a grain of pollen. When the kernel doesn't develop, when it's not pollinated to the tip, it got too hot or got interrupted in the pollination process," said Boehm. "The ears of corn that didn't pollinate are sparsely populated."

The worst hit areas were in the southwest corner of the state, on the northern edge of a broader Midwest drought. From about I-96 north, which had intermittent rains combined with unusual heat, is "not too bad," Boehm said. The central to northern part of the state is "looking optimal." Between I-96 and I-94, there are "pockets of worse." South of I-94 Boehm simply pronounced "worse." But those are just guidelines.

"There are south pockets here and there that received rain, and north pockets that didn't," he added.


"A lot of folks feel the rain and cooler times in the past few weeks helped the crops," said Boehm. "We're more optimistic about soy, but overall we'll be down for the year."

For the farms that do have crops, their harvest may not as big as they were hoping back in the spring. Or it may be an easy year for them: because of the shortage in other parts of the state and country, if they have crops, they'll get a good price for them, said Deacon.

If they don't have crops, there's always the USDA-FSA loans.

USDA-FSA loan program


"The USDA, as well as state, programs are tools farmers can evaluate using," said Deacon. "They may not have much profits, but they have employees, taxes, insurance and many other fixed costs to pay."


"That's the risk of farming. Some years, you make good money. Some years, you are struggling," said Boehm. "Most farmers would rather have a bumper crop for a decent price, move the commodity and meet the need. Mother Nature got in the way of that this year."

The stats



Winter wheat, which is planted in the fall and harvested in July, was another bright spot, Boehm said. "It's an important crop in Michigan, and it came off pretty well."



Then there's hay. If you don't have good corn, you're likely not going to have hay, said Boehm, and that's a problem for the livestock industry.

Low hay yields a concern

"The USDA keeps acreage records," he said. "We'll continue to see where things end up in harvest."

Boehm predicts hay prices will go up – yet another cost livestock producers have to contend with.

"If you don't have pasture in summer and bale hay in winter, it gets to be costly if you have to buy feed," said Boehm.


Particularly with meat and dairy products, farmers are facing some hard decisions about production and the cost of doing business, Deacon said. With rising feed costs, they've had to look at whether to buy feed and how much, and how many animals they are going to be able to keep.

"Some are selling animals now, and therefore the longer-term impacts will have to be seen," he said, adding that the USDA is predicting that consumer prices indeed will be impacted.

Nationally, prices react to the marketplace. Buyers who want corn for feed or ethanol plants bid up the price, resulting in record-high prices for corn and soybeans. This means the farmers who don't have as much grain or forage for their herds as they need, and who can't afford the higher market prices, will look to liquidate their cattle, pork and poultry.

"We'll see meat prices stable to lower because of excess liquidation, said Boehm. "But in three to 12 months, we'll see prices rise, because the animals that would have been fattening have been sold. Over the long term, there will be less meat available, so prices will go up."

Beyond corn and soybeans
When it comes to other vegetables in Michigan, it's more of a "mixed bag," Nye said. How much is harvested will depend on irrigation, how plants were affected by the hot weather, and how long into the fall the growing season extends before the first frost.

"Some like it relatively warm. If vegetables got rain, or had the opportunity to irrigate, they may have done relatively well this year," said Nye. Overall, though, he expects to see a slight reduction in vegetable production.

Nye said with the early spring and warm summer, sweet corn, winter squash and pumpkins production is two to three weeks ahead of schedule. There is some "disease pressure" due to the heat, and "a little lost production" because it was so hot during blooming time, causing the flowers to abort, but these vegetables are at least faring better than the fruit did, Nye added.

He expects to see a decent harvest yield of tomatoes, squash, pickles, celery, carrots, onions and summer squash. Then it's on to fall vegetables: the hard squash and potato harvest has started and will continue over the next six weeks or so.

To further complicate matters

"That hurts some of the vegetables," Boehm said. "Luckily it was not widespread across the state."

The drought hits more than producers

Where farmers tend to spend money is in their local areas, said Boehm. If they aren't spending, they aren't buying pick-up trucks and other equipment and supplies. They aren't putting up additional buildings with their accompanying supplies and labor.

"There are potential ripple effects," Deacon said. "We're watching it very closely."

Crop insurance helps in years like this to provide a cushion not only for farmers but also for the community in which they live, Boehm said, acknowledging that it's more difficult to design a sound aid program on the livestock side.


"With the current bill expiring at month's end, farmers are left out there wondering what will be available when they're trying to make decisions," said Boehm. "There's enough uncertainty in farming. Congress needs to get it done."

There are other ways the lack of production this year could have longer-term effects, impacting next year's sales. Customers could go elsewhere for product, and it would be a struggle for Michigan producers to get them to return.

"That's what happens with a market situation: a one year aberration is a concern, and it could mean a significant financial drain on producers to recover," said Nye. "We're hoping for a good year next year, because we're going to need that.


"We would expect a high level of bloom on next year's crop. That would be something we hope would give a little advantage next year," said Nye.

In addition, some growers in wetter areas of the state would have vigorous trees this year, "so that may add up to something better in the future," he said.

Trying to predict what is unpredictable

In order to be in a good position for next year's crop, after they have finished harvesting, farmers hope for additional rains this fall and snow in the winter to recharge the subsoil with moisture, as well as to refill lakes, rivers and ponds that some of them irrigate from. Boehm said meteorologists say there's a chance of a wetter-than-normal fall and winter. A chance that could change.

Weather patterns are cyclical, and ocean patterns affect farmers around the world, he noted. It's all part of the risk that farmers world-wide take.

"If this were only a Michigan problem, we wouldn't see the dramatic rise in prices," he said.

Fluctuation in commodity prices is the predictable part of an otherwise unpredictable industry. Next year, Boehm said, he expects volatility in the corn and soy markets due to low amount of grain left to carry over from 2011, and the amount the market won't see from 2012. With the U.S. being the number one exporter of these products, providing half of what is traded, markets will be watching South America at their harvest time in the spring to see what they will be able to supply. Experts also continue to look at weather, governments and other factors that play into the price of these commodities.

"There is a lot of concern for next spring and next year of what gets planted and where," he said, "and trying to anticipate what someone is willing to sell and what someone is willing to buy."


"With Michigan agriculture, due to diversity, hopefully we'll get through it," he said. "It will be difficult for individual producers, but we're going to look forward to getting back at it next year."

"Farmers are by nature an optimistic group," said Deacon. "There's always the hope that next year will be better."
