Update on the chance of severe weather in Michigan for the rest of today

The chance for severe weather in Michigan still exists for this afternoon, but has been lowered by the Storm Prediction Center. The most widespread outbreak of severe weather is now expected to be just to our east in Pennsylvania and Ontario. (Storm Prediction Center)
Mark Torregrossa | MLive By Mark Torregrossa | MLive
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on May 22, 2013 at 12:24 PM, updated May 22, 2013 at 12:38 PM

The chance for severe weather still exists this afternoon and evening across parts of Lower Michigan.

But the chance for severe weather has been lowered by the Storm Prediction Center.

The main area of severe weather is now expected to be just to our south and east in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Ontario.

I always want to remind you that the more sunshine we get on a severe weather day, the greater the chance of severe weather. The sunshine heats up the air, making the situation more favorable for severe storms.

The first graphic shows the southeast half of the Lower Peninsula still in the 15 percent chance for damaging wind gusts in thunderstorms.

The 30 percent chance of damaging winds has been shifted to our south and east.

Morning showers and clouds lower severe threat

The main reason for the lower chance of severe weather here in Michigan today is the cloud cover and shower activity this morning.

The clouds and showers keep the atmosphere cooler, and lower the chance of severe weather.

The main energy of the storm is still back to our southwest and is going to pass near Michigan late this afternoon.

So late afternoon and evening is when severe weather would occur.

The main threat would be isolated damaging winds and large hail. The highest threat would be in the far southeast corner of the Lower Peninsula, including the Detroit area.

tornado-chance-wednesday.jpgView full sizeThere is still a slight chance of a tornado across southeast Michigan. The chance is rated at 2 percent. You will also notice there isn't an area that is more likely to have a tornado. 

Slight chance of a tornado still exists

The graphic shows a large area of the eastern U.S. has a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.

So the chance is not high for a tornado. This lower chance also generally means that any tornado would not be strong to violent, like the recent Moore, Oklahoma tornado.

But you should know that there is still a chance for an isolated tornado late this afternoon and evening. Again, the farther south and east you are in Michigan, the higher your chance of being impacted by severe storms.

I'll keep watching the weather through the afternoon and evening. If severe weather develops, we'll have live coverage here on MLive.
