Computers help cops predict crime times

November 13, 2006|By Jon Van

In one regard, an ice skating show poses a greater problem for law enforcement than monster truck competitions, rap concerts or other entertainment, police in Richmond, Va., have found.

You wouldn't expect it, but computer records show there are more cars broken into near Richmond's coliseum when an ice skating extravaganza is the attraction, said Rodney Monroe, Richmond's police chief.

"It's mothers bringing their children," he said. "They're much more likely to leave valuables like iPods sitting in plain view."

Computer-analysis programs also document there is a predictable increase in robberies on paydays near the stores where the victims, particularly Hispanics, habitually cash their checks.

"Hispanics are less likely to use banks and more likely to carry cash," said Monroe.

These and other insights have been used in Richmond's crime fighting for more than a year since the police started using computers to study crime data.

The department has analyzed two years' worth of data and combined it with information about current events.

The computers take such disparate things as weather conditions, civic events, visiting conventions and paydays and correlates them with calls to the police, arrests, case histories and the like.

This information is scrutinized according to location within Richmond and time of day to provide a fascinating array of data the computer combs in search of patterns.

Monroe was among the speakers last week who attended the users conference here for Chicago-based SPSS Inc., a firm that pioneered software for predictive analytics.

Usually used by businesses to better manage marketing, sales and other commercial pursuits, SPSS software is finding its way into the public sector, embraced by police departments and schools seeking to use past experiences to predict future events.

Given such precise data about crimes, Monroe is able to set goals for the officers in charge of each of the dozen geographic police districts in Richmond.

"We cannot realistically say we'll tolerate no robberies," Monroe said. "But we can say we won't tolerate more than 14 robberies a month in a district."

If the norm in the past has been 20 robberies a month, that's progress, he said. And specific information, such as Hispanic payday data, can help officers meet the goals.

Sometimes that means changing shifts for officers so more can be put in place at times when the likelihood of crime rises, Monroe said. Other times, good information can lead to something simpler than more cops on patrol.

"Our data showed a lot of nighttime robberies along one strip near the convention center," Monroe said.

"We found it was especially dark there, so we put in more lighting."

Unlike science fiction where computers predict the exact location and time when a criminal will strike, the SPSS software alerts police to times and places where the probability of crime increases.

"Crime is going to occur," Monroe said, "but you have to keep it to acceptable levels."

Words to bank by: Automated teller machines, which dispense cash to customers virtually untouched by human hands, are developing new people skills.

By the end of this year, the machines operated by LaSalle Bank in Illinois will speak to customers as part of the bank's effort to accommodate people with vision problems.

The bank also is supplying raised-line checks and monthly statements in Braille or on computer discs or audio cassette.