Tags: Nuclear | bomb | washington | Terrorism | Study

Govt Report: Nuclear Blast Wouldn't Destroy DC

Tuesday, 27 Mar 2012 06:57 AM

Hollywood has destroyed Washington — or New York or Los Angeles — lots of times with nuclear bombs detonated by terrorists. It turns out to be harder in real life.

Thinking about the unthinkable, a U.S. government study analyzed the likely effects if terrorists set off a 10-kiloton nuclear device a few blocks north of the White House. It predicted terrible devastation for roughly one-half mile in every direction, with buildings reduced to rubble the way that World War II bombing raids destroyed parts of Berlin. But outside that blast zone, even such a nuclear explosion would be pretty survivable, the study concluded.


The little-noticed, 120-page study from the Federal Emergency Management Agency was hardly a summer blockbuster. The Homeland Security Department and the National Nuclear Security Administration produced the study, "Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism," in November.

Even though the government considers it "for official use only" and never published it online, the study circulated months later on scientific and government watchdog websites.





The flash from the explosion would be seen for hundreds of miles, but the mushroom cloud — up to 5 miles tall — would keep its shape for only a few minutes. The flash would be so bright it could temporarily blind people up to 12 miles away, including drivers on Washington's Beltway. At least four area hospitals would be heavily damaged or couldn't function, and four others would experience dangerous radiation fallout. The government said it expects to send warnings afterward by television, radio, email, text message and social media services like Twitter and Facebook.

It predicted the seriousness of radioactive fallout, which would drift with prevailing winds that vary depending on the season and expose victims closest to the explosion to 300 to 800 Roentgens in the first two hours, or enough to kill nearly all of them. In the spring, fallout would drift mostly to the north and west of downtown Washington. But in the summer, it would drift mostly southeast. After two hours, the radioactive cloud would move over Baltimore with far less exposure.

"Unfortunately, our instincts can be our own worst enemy," the report said. After the bright flash of a nuclear explosion, people would rush toward windows to see but the resulting blast could break glass as far as three miles away just 10 seconds later and cause injuries.



The key is to head underground quickly to parking garages or sturdy basements and wait, Larsen said. After about seven hours, radiation begins to disperse significantly, he said.

The government's study did not examine the plausibility of terrorists building a nuclear bomb or smuggling one into Washington, which is protected with radiation sensors and other technology designed to thwart such an attack. It didn't say why it chose the intersection — 16th and K streets northwest — as the epicenter for its fictional nuclear bomb.


"Our images of nuclear war are either of Hiroshima or Nagasaki or what we saw in the movies during the Cold War," said Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corporation. "If you are thinking about [a city] being wiped off the face of the earth, that's not what happens."


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