Blunt answers about risks of global warming

August 03, 2008|By Michael Hawthorne, a Tribune reporter

Rajendra Pachauri isn't nearly as famous as Al Gore, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with an international panel on climate change that Pachauri, an Indian scientist and economist, has led since 2002.

But as chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Pachauri has an urgent message for world leaders about the perils of global warming. He talked to the Tribune recently while he was in town to meet with Mayor Richard Daley and Chicago civic leaders. An edited transcript follows.

Q: The average global surface temperature has risen by 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900, and your panel predicts that the global climate likely will rise between 3.5 degrees and 8 degrees if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is allowed to double from the level in 1750. What does that mean for the planet and for society?

A: Relative to the changes in temperature that brought about the last Ice Age, this is a very big change. But it's not just about temperature. It's also about more floods, more droughts, more heat waves, rising sea levels and dramatic impacts on agriculture and water resources. This will stress the availability of things we take for granted today.

Q: How has the Nobel Peace Prize and the worldwide attention you've received changed how audiences react to your message?

A: It's getting more attention, though not nearly enough. We are creating conditions for the social structure to break down. If that happens, clearly there will be more conflicts. With coastal flooding, there could be hundreds of millions of environmental refugees. If the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets drop off, it will affect Louisiana, Florida and parts of California. It means we are altering the map of the world.

Q: The Bush administration is widely seen as the biggest hurdle to tackling the problem in the United States. Can a President Obama or President McCain make a difference?

A: Yes, but unless there is enough pressure from the public to make action essential, leaders by themselves are not going to be able to do much. That's why creating awareness is the most important thing now. Educators and the media need to look at the facts and disseminate them.

Q: China recently passed the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gases. What do you say to people who contend it's useless for the U.S. to act on its own when China is such a large contributor to the problem?

A: I think that is a very limited view. Let's face it, every country has developed along a similar path as the United States. How do you tell other parts of the world to give up cars or all of the other good things in life that represent achievement for human civilization?

Given the fact that this problem historically is a result of industrialization and prosperity in developed countries, I think there must be a first step from those countries to do something about the problem. If that happens, we will see China, India and Brazil trying to do what they can to keep up.

Q: Some scientists think your panel's conclusions are too conservative and underestimate the risks we face. Is it too late to act?

A: The fact that the impacts of climate change are turning out to be more serious than we expected shows how important it is to act soon. If we do nothing, things are going to get so much worse. We should do something about climate change with a sense of urgency.

Q: There are all sorts of efforts under way to persuade individuals to buy compact fluorescent light bulbs, more efficient heating and air conditioning and high-mileage cars and trucks. Can these individual choices actually have an effect?

A: They can make a huge difference. But you also need government policies. You need regulation and market forces like a price on carbon, which would move society in a different direction. During the first oil shock in the early 1970s, there was a totally different spirit and a movement toward more energy efficiency. But then oil prices dropped and those efforts went dormant. That's how we ended up with SUVs.



Q: What have you done personally to shrink your carbon footprint?

A: I've become a vegetarian. I try to minimize the use of cars. Where I've failed is my impact with regard to air travel. I tell people I was born a Hindu who believes in reincarnation. It will take me the next six lives to neutralize my carbon footprint. There's no way I can do it in one lifetime!