Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Misuses of empirical econ









  1. I think it can be very useful when people hold incompatible beliefs they haven't realized or recognized, helping them become more careful and consistent.

  2. Empirical economics seems like it could use something we find necessary in medical research- the meta analysis - comprehensive review of different studies to look for the overall likely effect.

  3. I know you think that the practice of economics provides value. In a way I wish I could share your optimism. If it's going ever be more than a bunch of questionable models based on a bunch of oversimplified assumptions, it has to be useful in practical terms. And as long as economists themselves can't come to agreement on behavior and outcome, then what are the rest of us to do? Why should we care at all? This failure ends up transferring power to those politicians and pundits who are unwilling to accept the fact that "it's complicated."

    I get that economists may enjoy writing papers and articles, but unless the math is truly illuminating, rather than in the end obscuring, it ends up an academic exercise. Economists tend to get lost in numbers, because numbers are things that one can analyze and model. In doing so, they often lose sight of real resources on which lives are based. Economists tend to see the world as it is, not as it could be. Perhaps economists should do more brainstorming and less analyzing. Perhaps they'd have more success.

    (Note: It's not just economics. Medicine is littered with failed theories and treatments. Some systems are just way more complex than we seem willing to admit.)

  4. Quite frankly, I don't Tyler makes a good case against empiricism. Just ah hoc examples.

  5. Bill Ellis3:44 PM

    The Institution of economics is Intuition...Empiricists are the "barbarians" at the gate...

    It sounds a lot like what always happens... a theological institution rejects science and real world experience as dangerous and uninformed...

  6. I'm really glad to see the rise of empirical research in economics being taken seriously as a means for developing better theories, rather than simply backing particular arguments.

    Next on the program, I'd like to see economists take a good look at accounting which has provided a mechanism for assessing economic entities for centuries and fairly effectively. Too many economic theories require economic entities to do things that are untenable under the rules of accounting. For example, they often assume people will spend money they don't have without having to take out a loan or selling something.

    One step at a time, and economics could turn out to be a useful field of study.

  7. Vitor Margato1:26 PM

    In rough ideological terms, I'm probably more aligned with Tyler Cowen, Russ Roberts and John Cochrane than with you. That said, I think your contribution to that debate about the role of empiricism in economics is extremely valuable. You're right -- Russ is not. You're right, Autor's right, Angrist's right, all those folks doing modern economics in a remarkably competent and rigorous fashion are right.