The federal government shut down on Tuesday and will stay closed until Congress can reach an agreement on how to fund day-to-day operations. So who gets hurt most by the shutdown?

Everyone's heard that the panda cam at the National Zoo has powered down, but that's hardly the most serious consequence of a shutdown. The biggest disruptions are less visible — the workers going without pay, the patients turned away from research clinics, and so on. Here's a rough list:

1) More than 2 million federal workers will see their paychecks delayed — and 800,000 of them might never get repaid.


This is, by a fair margin, the biggest immediate consequence of a shutdown. So long as Congress keeps the government closed, many federal workers simply won't get paid during the shutdown (save for those in agencies with independent funding, like Postal Service employees).



This could be a fair-sized financial hit for many workers, depending on how long the government stays shut down. Note that many of these federal employees have already gone through a three-year wage freeze and months of furloughs imposed by the sequestration budget cuts.

The economic impacts could also be sizable. Economist Mark Zandi argues that the furloughs could shave 0.3 percentage points of fourth-quarter GDP growth (although some of that activity would come back if the workers get back pay). Maryland, where many federal workers live, could lose up to $5 million per day in income and sales tax revenue.

Note that this doesn't include federal contractors, who will also start furloughing employees as contracts dry up. (During the 1995-'96 shutdown, one-fifth of contracts were put on hold.) It's still unclear how many companies will be affected, but the numbers are large. Fairfax County, Va., alone has 4,100 contractors that bring in about $26 billion per year.

2) Millions of veterans may not receive benefits if the shutdown lasts more than two weeks.

(The Washington Post)



3) The CDC will halt its flu program just as flu season gets underway.

(Rogelio V. Solis, File/Associated Press)




4) Some food-safety operations would cease.

Ken Trevarthan/AP - Water can cause harm by entering the egg through its porous shell, increasing the risk of contamination.





It's very possible that nothing will go awry while these regulators are closed. But that's hard to say for sure.

5) Nutritional programs for women, infants and children could be disrupted after a week.

Some programs will continue to receive federal funds, but those for the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children would be cut off during a shutdown. (Tracy A. Woodward/The Washington Post.


That won't hit immediately. The USDA estimates that most states have funds and authority to continue their programs for "a week or so," but they'll "likely be unable to sustain operations for a longer period. "Contingency funds will be available to help States—but even this funding would not fully mitigate a shortfall for the entire month of October."

Update: On Tuesday the USDA released additional guidance allowing states to tap into additional funds that could allow many states to keep the WIC program running through October. But the memo warns that state agencies "may still face funding shortfalls associated with FY 2014 obligations during the shutdown."


6) Financing for small businesses could be hampered.

Durham Bulls Athletic Park in Durham, North Carolina. (Bill Russ /




7) The tourist trade would take a hit.



That sounds like a minor inconvenience, but it can have a major economic impact. During the last shutdown in 1995-1996, some 7 million visitors were turned away from national parks. Tourist industries and airlines lost millions of dollars per day, according to the Congressional Research Service.


8) Head Start programs for hundreds of kids will slowly start closing.

(Carol Kaliff/AP )- Lead teacher Carmen Prybylski works with children Quinn Watson, left, 3, Sofia Coway, 2, and Kayla Lamour, 3, at Head Start's new building in Danbury, Conn. July 17, 2013.




9) Disability benefits could be interrupted.

(Source: Center for American Progress)


Update: 10) Kids with cancer could get turned away from treatment.

Here's one last impact to add to the list. As long as the government is shut down, the National Institutes of Health says it will turn away roughly 200 patients each week from its clinical research center, including children with cancer.

“We’ve had to tell people, ‘I’m sorry, you can’t come here,’ ” NIH Director Francis Collins told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. See this post for more information and context.



How painful the above impacts are depends on your perspective. Obviously the people affected will care a lot. But how big an outcry will there be from the broader public? Over at Business Insider, Joe Weisenthal suspects that "there's no obvious one thing [about a shutdown] that will be so annoying to the public that the two sides would quickly have to come to a deal." If that's true, a shutdown could last for quite some time.

It's also worth noting that we've already seen disruptive cuts this year after Congress allowed sequestration to hit — and lawmakers haven't exactly rushed to reverse those haphazard budget cuts. Indeed, much of Washington appears to have made peace with sequestration. That makes it hard to guess exactly how long a shutdown might last.

Related: Absolutely everything you need to know about how a government shutdown works.