Wednesday, 12 April 2017

Towards a theory of Precognition

Precognition, the alleged ability to see the future, perhaps spontaneously and uncontrollably, is a form of anomalous perception and anomalous cognition (AC). Perception of the present is clairvoyance, perception of the past includes psychometry, time slips and hypnotic regression and Perception of the future is known as precognition (PC).

Precognition may be conscious or unconscious, spontaneous or induced in a number of ways. Spontaneous conscious PC cases may be explained in terms of selection bias – people remember only dreams that came true, misinterpretation, unconscious adjustment of memories or a form of cryptomnesia where the witness had information that could have been used to predict the future event but had forgotten it and then created a dream or vision that was interpreted as a premonition. Some PC skeptics will try to explain PC in terms of clairvoyance or telepathy – explaining one anomaly in terms of another possibly less mysterious.

Spontaneous unconscious PC may manifest itself in impulse behaviour that avoids a bad outcome or results in a good outcome. Or it may result in presentiment, a feeling that prompts a change in behaviour. It may also result in short term changes in, for example, heart beats or the electrical conductivity of the skin. Laboratory experiments have come to rely more on physiological changes and less on reports the participants make when testing for PC ability. Typically these experiments involve monitoring body changes in response to a random stimulus at a future time and seeing whether there is a response to the stimulus before the stimulus is administered. These experiments are similar to experiments in normal cognition but need extra care in design, for example ensuring that the random number generators used are truly unpredictable – typically they involve detecting radioactive decay products which are taken as truly random, an assumption that depends on Bell’s Theorem which rules out hidden variables at the quantum level that might be accessible to the subject’s unconscious mind.

The evidence from experiment suggests a real but weak effect which cannot, at this time, be improved by training but the evidence is not sufficiently compelling to convince skeptics who may also reject Precognition because it raises questions about the nature of time, free will and causality – it is normally considered that an effect cannot precede its cause – and because no mechanism for it is proposed.

Physicists and others have been developing theories of how PC might work, the main focus being on quantum mechanics where the description of nature is symmetric with respect to time at least on the smallest time scales.

The Multiphase Model Of Precognition (MMPC) [1]

Researchers at the Laboratory for Fundamental Research in Palo Alto have developed an interesting model of PC that separates Physics, Neurobiology and Cognition and identify and try to address the problems in each domain. The laboratory president and founder was previously a scientist working with the CIA Star Gate program. Despite a cloud over his role in the project which led to suspicions about the data gathered (2,3) the review that recommended termination of the project admitted a statistically significant effect had been found but noted that the information received, which was to do with remote viewing rather than PC was vague and ambiguous and not good enough for intelligence purposes.

The MMPC is, despite the concerns in the paragraph above, plausibly constructed and references other investigators who appeared to have no conflict of interest and seem to be reliable. The pleasing feature of the theory is its decoupling of the various domains and hence disciplines involved, while the concerns above should prompt a more critical reading of their suggestions.

The authors of the model theorise that entropy gradients, for example those associated with an explosion, are related to how well PC gifted individuals perform on laboratory tests, that there is a “transducer” that maps signals carried from a future time to the time of the experiment into signals within the central nervous system, that cortical processing of the received signal within the central nervous system requires, or at least involves cross modal sensory processing of the sort seen for example in synaesthesia where sounds may be perceived as colours or vice versa and that the cognitive processing of the signals in the cortex uses the same processes as for normal perception. This last assumption means that it will not be possible to distinguish between PC cognitive processing and normal cognitive processing by looking at the behaviour of the brain.

In this model the low incidence of PC ability in the general population is explained by variations in individual sensitivity and efficiency of the presumed transducer and the low incidence of individuals with massive cross modal processing, for example synaesthetes. The last factor is used to explain why PC seems to resist training for excellence.

The MMPC model does not supply a candidate for the signal carrying the information from the future to the past, though they cite other researchers as ruling out electromagnetic waves, or any suggestions concerning the transducer mapping from the Physics domain to the Neural domain. If information is transmitted backwards in time it is impossible to tell when it was received: it could have been received years before the participant entered the laboratory.

The model is rudimentary with few concrete predictions but asserts that PC gifted people may be good at visualisation that those who are good at converting implicit information into awareness may be PC gifted and that PC gifted people may exhibit synaesthesia and vice versa. The search for the transducer is like looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack and the other predictions may be hard to test because of the low incidence of synaesthetes, PC capable people and good visualisers in the population. If validated the authors claim it would unite all ESP processes under one model.

Consciousness Induced Restoration Of Time Symmetry [5]

Bierman has produced a model which he claims will unite all ESP processes under one framework.

The problem precognition raises is that while almost all formalisms in physics (excpet possibly thermodynamics) are time symmetric in that any solution of the equations as a function of time holds for negative times as well as positive times. This implies paranormal phenomena are natural and to be expected. But our experience says otherwise. We seem to live in a world where time flows in one direction, the past is inaccessible and the future is not yet created. The cause of this asymmetry is unknown. Simply assuming that the advanced solutions are forbidden is a counsel of despair.

Bierman assumes that when sustaining consciousness the brain partly restores symmetry allowing the advanced solutions, which correspond to negative time with respect to the observer, occur. He does not propose a mechanism for this. By assuming that if a stimulus is presented to a subject at a time t then their physical response, say skin conductance, will show only the standard solution S(t) say but if the stimulus is consciously observed then the physical response will have a contribution from the future (forward wave) solution S(-t).

S = S(t) + A*S(-t)

Where A is defined in terms of coherence as measured from EEG studies and the fraction of the brain involved as measured by fMRI [6]. By assuming A is roughly constant he is able to predict the expected response and generate a simple if cryptic rule: What happens after happens before which can be taken to mean that the past and future mirror each other. He then argues that the advanced part mimics the retarded part, thus if the signal peaks four seconds after the stimulus then the retarded art should peak about four seconds before the stimulus. He cites an unpublished study that showed no presentiment of the stimulus when the subject could not report the content of the stimulus, suggesting that consciousness is crucial for presentiment to occur. He then postulates that the peak is symmetric about the moment of conscious experience, which is about 400Ms after the stimulus with the part of the stimulus that is not consciously experienced not being reflected back in time.

His theory does not allow the past to be changed but allows the future to influence the present. Thus a dream of a house catching fire because of a lighted candle that causes all candles to be removed prevents the fire and so there will be no signal from the future. This in itself seems a paradox and seems to clash with the findings by Cox [7,8] who showed that trains which crashed were less populated than usual and the carriages worst affected were even less populated than usual and attributed that to an unconscious premonition.

Bierman’s model puts consciousness in a primary role in PC, which is in line with increasing popularity of the view that consciousness is intrinsic to reality in Philosophy, Neuroscience and even Physics (see references cited in [7]) It is also sympathetic to a dualist conception of consciousness which is in turn more compatible with the notion of a timeless block universe than with Temporal Realism.

Comparison Of MMPC And CIRTS

MMPC is an aesthetically pleasing model that separates the concerns of Physics, Neurobiology and Cognition. In essence it asserts that information is carried from the future to the past by an unknown carrier. A transducer converts this signal into regular central nervous system signal which are then processed by the cortex and enter consciousness and are then processed in the normal way. Consciousness plays no role in the PC process. The low incidence of PC gifted people in the general population results from differences between subjects in transducer efficiencies and in cortical processing. The authors do not mention the possibility that the transducer, if it exists, is a distributed function of the whole brain rather than a discrete organ, which might align it to the hypothesis that the brain is merely a receiver and filter for a universal consciousness.

CIRTS puts consciousness at the centre of the PC process by restoring symmetry which allows the brain to receive advanced waves. These are then registered by the brain with an efficiency that depends on measurable brain properties.

Both models assert time is real and that it is possible for the future to affect the present but not for the present to affect the past. These results appear to contradict those found by Cox [7,8] and a replication of Cox’s work, or alternatively a demonstration that disasters in urban areas tend to be accompanied by fewer than normal people entering the area of the disaster.

While MMPC is neatly formulated it has two big unknowns: The nature of the transducer and the carrier of the information from the future. As Bierman points out what we see is correlations and, I suggest, unless we can detect the carrier, its existence is merely inferred.

CIRTS appears more sympathetic to a dualist or panpsychic interpretation of the mind body problem which is my instinctive preference.


  1. Rethinking Extrasensory Perception: Toward a Multiphasic Model of Precognition: Sonali Bhatt Marwaha and Edwin C. May
  2. Consciousness induced restoration of time symmetry (CIRTS): a psychophysical theoretical perspective, Bierman, D.J, The journal of parapsychology Volume 74 Issue 2 Pages 273-299
  4. SUBLIMINAL PRECOGNITION” A MODERN CRITICAL REVIEW OF “PRECOGNITION – AN ANALYSIS” BY W.E COX (1956). ADRIAN DAVID NELSON (2013) A review of The original work by Cox since the original was unavailable.
  5. Cox, W.E. (1956). Precognition: An Analysis, II. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 50(3), 99-109. The original paper by Cox
About The Author
Trained as a mathematician and physicist the author was a contract software developer for many years working in a number of countries. He is now writing a book on Time which will cover a number of aspects of Time. As a result he is constantly short of time.

When not writing the Author plays Capoeira, takes photographs and administers the family run Bed and Breakfast in Edinburgh, Scotland

Wednesday, 7 October 2015

Jurassic Plant Brought Back To Life After 200 Million Years: and the rest !!!!

The following URL
Jurassic Plant Brought Back To Life After 200 Million Years

seems to have been taken up by a number of sites. However

1)  The researchers named in the article do not seem to exist
2) looks very much like a spoof site.

While there have been cases of  revivals of spores and plants  of extreme antiquity this is almost certainly not one of them

Dont take my word for it. Do some digging

Sunday, 13 October 2013

Pagan Origins of Christmas

Fundamentalist Christians, especially protestant ones, hate Christmas. Some claim it, like Halloween, is a pagan festival and nothing to do with Christianity. And they are right. Realising this Pagans have sought to reclaim “Their” midwinter festival, ignoring the widespread celebration of the mid winter solstice around this time that means Christmas does not belong to any one group, tribe or religion.

Anti Christmas
Father Christmas riding a goat
In 1652 British Puritans made Christmas Illegal for eight years. They hated the pagan parts for being pagan, the christian parts for being catholic and hated any festival because people enjoyed themselves [1] (around this time they also made smiling an offence). In America at about the same time puritans passed a law levying a fine on anyone celebrating Christmas.

In 1989 a Japanese department store made a huge Father Christmas, but made one mistake: Thy put him on the roof and Crucified him. In 1969 an Editorial in L' Oservatore Romano described Father Christmas as a representing a monstrous substition for the Christ Child and offending the faith.

Around 1988 the Truth Tabernacle in Burlington, North Carolina, considered Christmas the work of the devil and talked of Satan Claus, being an impostor. As with most religious nutters they lacked both the education to know that Santa Claus evolved from St Nicholas, and the sense of humour that would have let them call him “old Nick”. They, like the original Calvinists, allowed no Christmas Presents or trees, and an elder of the church noted that 25th December was the birthday of a pagan god, Tammuz, and claimed Jesus was born in September [2]. Had he claimed Jesus was born on September 11th this would have been a powerful synchronicity. His claim would also have surprised early Christians who celebrated the birth in March [1]. In truth if Jesus ever existed there is no indication anywhere of his birthday.

The stalwart religionists held a mock trial accusing Santa of Child Abuse, by urging parents to buy alcohol not clothes, of falsely claiming to be St Nicholas, maing ministers lie about Christ's Birthday, and making churches practice Baal Religion unknowingly. After this kangaroo court had found him, guilty they hung an eight foot dummy in a Santa suit from a tree.

The Significance of the End of the Year.

Calendar endpoints are psychologically significant. There was a panic in 2000 about the millennium bug, and in 2012 about the alleged end of the Mayan calendar. In AD 1000 there was widespread expectation of the second coming of Christ.

Times of change have also been appropriated by non-christians, as anyone who recalls the hype over the “Dawning of the Age of Aquarius” can testify. There are at least three times of change in the western year, the Spring and Winter Solstice and New Year. The last two have greater cultural impact and for most people the Winter Solstice is more meaningful (Why the new year is not celebrated on the Winter Solstice is another question).

The Winter solstice, in the Norther Hemisphere, is the time when the days stop getting shorter. After that they get longer. It is when Ullr, god of Winter loses his annual battle with Odin and hos power begins to weaken till midsummer. It is a “weird Space” that has become a time of carnival when normal rules are relaxed in order to reinforce them when normality returns on Plough Monday. And is a very good excuse to forget work, perhaps impossible because of the weather and enjoy life for a while.

Festivals of Light

Pennick [1] notes that in the West December 25th has been celebrated as the birthday of divinities of light, citing the Babylonian Queen of Heaven, Oriris from Egypt, Dionysus and Adonis from Greece and from Scandinavia Baldur, ironically killed by Mistletoe. December 25th is the birthday of Mithra, the Persian solar god[5] originally a servant to Ahura Mazda, the Zoroastrian god of goodness [4].

Mithraism, a mystic cult that developed in Armenia from a local late surviving version of Mazdaysnian, blended Mithra, originally an Indo-Iranian god of contracts and broad pastures with the Babylonian sun god, Shamash and god of seasonal regeneration, Tammuz.

After his introduction to Rome this mixed Mithra, and perhaps his December 25 date of celebration, were again blended with Solis indigeni (a Roman sun god derived from the Pelasgean titan of light - Helios. This resulted in a composite being Solis invicta, the invincible sun. Mithra, the god of the regenerating sun was annually reborn on December 25th.

Aurelian eventually proclaimed Mithraism the official religion of the Roman Empire in A.D. 274 and Natalis Solis Invicti (Birthday of the Invincible Sun) became an official holiday. This coincided with the Roman Saturnalia, which flanked the weird space of the solstice, when normal social rules were relaxed and gifts of candles, symbolising lights, were exchanged. There is evidence that a lighting ceremony commemorating the return of light and heat at the winter solstice was transferred to the festival of Mithras.

Christianity took over the Celebrations around the winter solstice, a tactic later to be used in Britain when the incoming missionaries took over pagan temples and places of worship rededicating them to their own religion.

The Wild Hunt
Further north St Nicholas and Odin became confused. Odin is the leader of the Wild Hunt, who travel the autumn skies taking away anyone who gets in their way. Odin is a god with shamanic aspects, riding his horse between worlds. Santa Claus is depicted in a shamanic costume, an animal's hide blooded skin outside and fur inside. Just as Odin leads the wild hunt so Santa drives a reindeer sleigh through the sky. Just as Odin is, in one aspect, the traveller between worlds, Santa is associated with the “weird space” between the worlds of summer and winter just after the solstice.

Of course it is highly unlikely that the people who created the image of Santa Claus for motives ranging from politics to commerce [6] were consciously aware of these correspondences but folk memory lasts a long time and eventually its characters and events border on the archetypal. The Wild Hunt, Odin and the rebirth of the sun in Winter are powerful things, which may have roots going back to the birth of agriculture and beyond. Burned into the collective unconscious these may have surfaced again as Santa Claus.

The Wrap
Christmas as we know it is based on pre-christian traditions from various parts of the world, and these traditions themselves may have been birthed from older traditions and from archetypes of personalities and events in the collective unconscious and collective memory of at least western humanity.


  1. Wierd Space: Pagan Rites of Christmas, Nigel Pennick, Fortean Times 60 December 1991 p.24
  2. Ho Ho Ho A seasonal Portrait: Paul Sieveking, Fortean Times 56, Winter 1990 P.42
  3. Stations of the Sun: Ronald Hutton, +
  4. In search of Zarathustra: Paul Kriwaczek, Weidenfeld and Nocolson 2002
  5. http:// Anerican Christmas Origins
  6. The Politics of Christmas: Coca Cola, Capitalism and Collective Memory

Saturday, 7 September 2013

Anomalous artefacts

When archaeologists find something that looks humanly made they naturally want to know how old it is and usually combine a number of ways to estimate its age. The methods basically fall into two categories, absolute and relative. Neither is totally accurate. Absolute methods include Radio Carbon dating, thermoluminescence and Tree Ring dating. Relative methods include looking at the depth an object was found and provisionally assuming it is older than an object found above it and younger than one found below it. A third category might be called comparative, comparing an object with similar objects found elsewhere.

Sometimes an object does not fit. One or more of these methods suggests the object is older than it should be or is somewhere it should not be, if current theories are correct. Such an object is normally called an OOPART standing for Out Of Place Artefact, though the term can also be used for non-manufactured articles, since OOPOBJ is not as easy to say.

A lot of apparent OOPARTs have been found, but most can be explained without assuming they came from Atlantis or an extraterrestrial spacecraft. There are however a small number that pose a problem to conventional theories and are generally ignored because any archaeologist who investigates them is likely to suffer career damage. Even if this is not the case an academic archaeologist will generally have little time to research anomalies. As a result these objects have been appropriated by religious groups and other fringe elements as proof of their pet theories, without real investigation and ignoring the fact that weakening opposing theories does not mean their theory is right.

Ancient Machinery found in Russia
Recently there were claims of an ancient machine part being found in Russia generally [3] being lumped together with other OOPARTs, some of which may be fossils. One geologist considers it is either a natural crystal of Iron Pyrites or, since it was not discovered in the mine itself, a something that had broken off mining machinery. The argument they make that the fact it was not published in a peer reviewed journal is however weak: No journal would publish it until it was verified, and no mainstream scientist will try to verify it until it is published. This is a weak case and can safely be discarded.

The Crystal Skulls

There are a number of model human skulls carved in quartz alleged to be from pre-columbian South America. On investigation the problems with this interpretation seem to multiply. Not one of these skulls has been proven to be pre-columbian, and the best evidence seems to indicate they were carved in the 19th century in Europe. The most famous skull, the Mitchell-Hedges skull was purchased by Mitchell-Hedges from a London Art dealer in 1944, though his daughter claimed have found it during an excavation. The skull seems most likely to be a copy of a 19th century skull in the British Museum. Whether or not they are ancient they are remarkable sculptures doubtless attractive to those who are attracted to skulls.

Regardless of scientific evidence many paranormal claims have been made for the 13 or so known skulls which can kill at a distance or cure cancer. Claims of skull-lore and mythology seem not to have existed in Ancient South America and any ancient South American myths seem to have been spread initially by Mitchell-Hedges and taken up by New-Age writers who considered them as relics of Atlantis.

The fact that the skulls are 19th century does not preclude the possibility they now have some paranormal attributes for belief can do remarkable things.

Criteria for real OOPARTs

William Corliss gave several criteria for an OOPART, as stated on Bad Archeology [1]

    It must :
  • have an unexpected age (too old or too young),
  • have an unknown or contested use,
  • be of anomalous size or scale,
  • have a composition impossible with current understanding of ancient technology (aluminium in ancient China),

When evaluating a possible OOPART you should ask at least one question for each criterion, for example

Is the date reliable?
Could it have got their through trade or been moved down by earthworms or earthquakes?
Can you see a possible use for it consistent with the known level of technology?
Could the giant/miniature object have been something else or used for rituals?
Is its composition really anomalous?
Was it really found with the other articles mentioned?
One final criteria not on Corliss' list is:

The trail should not go cold
The object should exist and be potentially open to further study. If it has vanished then the assessment must be made on circumstantial evidence. The fact an object has vanished does not mean it never existed: museums tend to put anomalous objects first in storage then in the rubbish. Even if not deliberately discarded accidents happen. An example where the trail is almost cold is the Dashka Stone [2] which is apparently on exhibition in a museum, but where the original discoverer , who gained points for being a respected physicist, seems first to have become an uncritical believer in ET intervention, then vanished from the face of the earth. A cold trail is a warning sign not an indication the object is not anomalous.

The Wrap

OOPARTS are a fascinating minefield for the explorer of anomalies. The field is riddled with self deception and erroneous interpretations but some mysteries, like the discovery of a stuffed alligator during investigation of a prehistoric site seem destined to remain unresolved for ever. At the same time there is some evidence that the beginnings of human technology stretch further back than generally accepted.

Unfortunately almost all alleged OOPARTS seem either to vanish or be unable to withstand investigation.

[1] Bad Archaeology

[2] The Dashka Stone

[3] Ancient Machinery found in Russia?

[4] Skeptical take on the Ancient Machinery found in Russia

[5] Lost Civilisations of the Stone Age: Richard Rudgley. 

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

Who was St Juttemis?

St Juttemis in Breda
The city of Breda, Netherlands in 2007 when I came statue of St. Juttemis. I was intrigued by the statue and found the local tourist office, just 200 metres away knew nothing about the saint.

Most of the information Mr Google, revealed about him is in Dutch and that he was a fictional saint. To say something would happen on St. Juttemis' day meant it would never happen.

Apparently the saint had been adopted (as a patron?) by the carnival community who descend on Breda every year. It is not clear why the carnival crowd would adopted a fictional saint and why his day was associated with “never”.

Oncyclopedia gives a story of his life that should be true, even though it is probably not.

St Juttemis was a Jutlander, married to a farmer's daughter called Jut, one day he saw a vision of Sophia, who showed him the world was absurd and only made God laugh. Since people had forgotten this fundamental absurdity the was ordered to go forth and spread the word.

His message was received with ridicule and scorn. Especially since he had a sullen and irritable character and could not appreciate a joke. One day be came to a fair and began to rant and rage and destroy with a heavy hammer, that someone had left there. But he fell and got the hammer on his head so that he died. At the same time a bell sounded and all fair goers converted to Sophiasme. They saw their wicked ways and devoted their lives to furthering foolishness. As a tribute every fairground now has a device, which strikes a bell with a hammer to announce the Jutmis.

In 1009 Jutter Hypocritus XVI was canonized by Pope, and one day (February 30) of the year was dedicated to him. On this day the St. Jutte Fair was the main attraction.

In the course of time, however, St. Jutte became so popular that the most extreme forms Sophia Sten threatened the Catholic Church and so Pope III Paedofilius moved his feast to February 29 So so it was only once in four years. When that did not to help it was moved to February 30, which, as everyone knows occurs once every 70 years, and then only if the pigs have wings and the sky is falling, so we all wear blue hats.

With St. Juttemis

all people pay their debts,
politicians do what they promised,
teachers are reasonable,
Industrialists do something for the environment.

More prosaically Wikipedia states that Jutte is a short form of Judith and that saint has her day on August 17th and that St Juttemis is mentioned in the Kroniek van Roermond. This appears to be a real series of Chronicles but I have not been able to find the original quote in the chronicle via Google, though there are plenty of references to it. The full form apparently is

“met sint-juttemis, als de kalveren op het ijs dansen”
“on the day of st Juttemis when calves dance on the ice”

Moving Northwards to Scandinavia we find four such saintsaccording to

Juttemis may or may not have existed and may or may not have been female. I have not found any good reason why his (for simplicity) day should be associated with “never” or why the carnival commnity have adopted him. The only story I found that explains everything about him is on Oncyclopedia, a site that declares itself content free and so the story could be made up. I am left with a statue that definitely exists, a load of articles in Dutch citing a real chronicle but have found no transcription of the original citation and know no one in the carnival community.

Perhaps Juttemis' story is an urban legend that took root in Dutch culture like Father Christmas (the Medieval one, who, unlike Santa Claus seems to have been the model for Dickens' Christmas

Saturday, 3 August 2013

A theory on how ghosts are created



The Mackenzie Poltergeist



The most likely theories are




Edinburgh Vaults



Mary Kings Close



The Philip Experiment



Kenneth Bacheldor

Summoning Ghosts of the Civil War


Alexandra David-Neel


The Wrap




Further Reading

 The Mackenzie Poltergeist.

The Niddry St Vaults

Mary Kings Close


Saturday, 23 February 2013

Reincarnation reconsidered skeptically






Why Reincarnate?








Who Reincarnates?





The Wrap


