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ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP006 (2000)

ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV

QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  February 11, 2000
To all radio amateurs 

ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose over the past week, with average
solar flux up over 36 points and average sunspot numbers rising
nearly 70 points compared to the previous week. Peak activity
probably already occurred, with solar flux on Wednesday at 199 and
sunspot numbers peaking on Tuesday at 198. Solar flux should decline
for the near term, with the values for this Friday through Sunday at
176, 176 and 174.

The next low is forecast around February 22-25 with a solar flux
value around 130. The next peak is predicted for March 8-9, with
solar flux near 195. Based on the 27.5 day solar rotation, the
following near term solar flux minimum would be around March 20-23
at 130.

There were a couple of active geomagnetic days on February 6 and 7,
when the planetary A index was 24 and 25 and the maximum K index was
5. The College A index from Fairbanks was 43 and 38 on those days,
with a peak K index of 7, because of the high latitude. KL7AK sent
an email message asking about the College index. These readings,
along with the planetary A index can be seen with your web browser
at gopher://

The predicted planetary A index for this Friday through Sunday is
15, 10 and 20. Conditions should be quiet for February 15-22, but
active again around February 24 with predicted A index of 30. March
4 and 5 may also be active, and so may March 22 and 23.

Sunspot numbers for February 3 through 9 were 149, 136, 153, 173,
169, 198 and 189 with a mean of 166.7. 10.7 cm flux was 154.1 167.4,
167.8, 177.7, 181.9, 173.6 and 199, with a mean of 174.5, and
estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 9, 24, 25, 12 and 11, with
a mean of 13.3.

Path projections for this week are from San Francisco, California.

To Western Europe, 80 meters 0100-0830z, 40 meters 0030-1000z (best
0130-0700z) 30 meters 2330-1100z (best 0200-0730z), 20 meters
1500-1700z and 2130-2300z, 17 meters 1530-2030z, 15 meters
1600-1900z, 12 meters 1700-1800z, 10 meters around 1730z.

To Eastern Europe, 80 meters 0130-0630z, best around 0230z, 40
meters 0030-0800z, best 0230-0500z, 30 meters 0000-0930z, best
0200-0530z, 20 meters 1500-1730z and 0400-0600z, 17 meters
1530-1830z, 15 meters 1630-1730z.

To Southern Africa, 80 meters 0130-0430z (best 0200-0330z), 40
meters 0030-0500z (best 0200-0330z), 30 meters 0000-0530z (best
0200-0330z), 20 meters 0000-0530z (best 0100-0400z), 17 meters
2300-0300z (stronger toward the end of the period), 15 meters
2330-0300z, 12 meters 2200-2330z, 10 meters 2000-2200z.

To South America, 80 meters 0130-1000z (best 0430-0900z), 40 meters
0100-1030z (best 0230-0930z), 30 meters 0030-1100z (best
0200-0930z), 20 meters 0030-1100z 17 meters 2230-1000z, 15 meters
1430-1600z and 2200-0330z, 12 meters 1500-0300z, 10 meters

To the Caribbean, 80 meters 0130-1130z (best 0400-1000z), 40 meters
0000-1230z (best 0230-1030z), 30 meters 2300-1300z (best
0230-1000z), 20 meters open most hours, strongest 0200- 1030z,
weakest 1300-1400z and 1630-2000z, 17 meters 1430- 0330z, 15 meters
1500-0100z, 12 meters 1530-0330z, 10 meters 1530-2330z.

To New Zealand, 80 meters 0700-1500z (best 1000-1400z), 40 meters
0630-1530z (best 0800-1430z), 30 meters 0600-1600z (best
0730-1430z), 20 meters 0530-1600z (best 0800-1430z), 17 meters
0430-1200z, 15 meters 0230-1030z, 12 meters 2000- 0400z, 10 meters

To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1530z (best 1100-1200z), 40 meters
0900-1600z (best 1000-1500z), 30 meters 0830-1630z (best
1000-1500z), 20 meters 0800-1700z, 17 meters 0700-1200 and

To Japan, 80 meters 0800-1600z (best 0930-1030z), 40 meters
0730-1630z, 30 meters 0630-1700z, 20 meters 0500-1200z and
1500-1830z, 17 meters 2100-0530z, 15 meters 2130-0430z, 12 meters
2200-0300z, 10 meters 2200-0130z.