Sunday, June 26, 2005

Mokar moon - midwinter blues

I've a mad couple of roosters having a singing contest in the background - it's that time of year - time to sharpen the axe... oh well.

It is indeed a rainy winter and the marri and the old timers were on the money. But the signs aren't good for a break in the eastern states drought. Once the July moon is passed and the season starts to turn the blocking highs will start to form again and the green drought will continue. The El Nino doesn't want to get the climate skeptics off the hook so this drought can be blamed entirely on climate warming one assumes.

However, I once studied 100 years of Australian rainfall data from 1850 - 1950 collected as cumulative monthly anomalies for a large number of recording stations. This is good because it enables you to calculate the length of droughts and dry periods in terms of months instead of years(All BOM drought data is collated by calendar year periods).

My data revealed two definite periods for drought length in Australia one of 7 years and the other of 15 months.

Given this then the current NSW drought is in it's seventh year now - if it sticks to past patterns then it should break this spring/summer. If it doesn't rain this spring/summer over there then it's global warming and Sydney (and elsewhere) are gonna have a doozt of a water problem.

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