Joel Bomane, publié le , mis à jour à

January 21, 2013 6:00 P.M | by JACQUES ATTALI

Nothing resembles 2013 more than 1913.

That year, a period of extraordinary growth was greatly restricted by a
financial crisis caused by the first economic power at the time (Great

Enormous progress in technology, in the fields of Energy and Communication
(electricity, automobile, aircraft, radio, submarine) told us this would
lead to broad new uplands of progress.

A wide array of movements for democracy were emerging in Latin America,
Africa, Russia and Asia. But also terrorist movements that began to rampage
(then called « nihilists »).

Totalitarian ideologies denigrated the market economy and democracy;
announcing their intention to combat the ideology of human rights.

That year, though, in 1913, nobody knew the name of Lenin, who was going to take
power in Russia 4 years later. And even less that of Mussolini, who will
march on Rome 7 years later, same for Hitler, who will attempt his first
coup d’etat ten years later.

No one imagined, that one terrorist attack among many others would ignite,
by the game of alliances, a First World War which will be replaced by
a severe economic crisis, and then by a Second World War. And in the same
line of thought the Soviet regime, an outcome of the first World War, that will
collapse only 75 years later.

Today, the same forces of progress and freedom express themselves; the same
rumblings exist; the same destructive ideologies and movements. The same
economic crisis. The same temptation to survive by using protectionism,
violence and even war, at least a cold one.

Let us look lucidly at today’s world: a very brief period has just ended
when there was no war between two countries, anywhere in the world.

Now an arch of violence is traveling across the world: a war in Mali,
conflicts in Libya (which has freed a powerful conventional weapon), a
conflict between Israel and Palestine, a civil war in Syria (with the
possibility of releasing horrifying chemical weapons), tensions between
Israel and Iran, a war in Afghanistan, some tension between India and
Pakistan, between China and Japan, which may involve its American ally, down
towards Mexico, Brazil and via the drug cartels, to finally join Equatorial
Guinea and Mali.

Therefore the stage is set to be under the threat of a third world war.

Nobody knows just where will take place the equivalent of the incident of
Sarajevo which led to August 14: on the disputed islands between China and
Japan, no doubt.

In order to avoid this, a clear distinction should be made between the fight
against narco-islamic terrorism, that all should pursue, in the form of concerted
international action at police level (where are the Germans in Mali? The British?
The Americans?) and disputes, often pathetic over territories between nations,
which should be subjected to civilized arbitrations.

If there is no clarity about these principles, if we let our economies fall
back on protectionism and let wars begin, it will be a recipe for an awful
disaster, from which we will come out, if everything is like the past
century, only in 2089, after, all things being equal, more than 200 million



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