Paleoclimate record points toward potential rapid climate changes

Posted By News On December 8, 2011 - 9:00pm
Paleoclimate record points toward potential rapid climate changes









(Photo Credit: NASA GISS)


Ice and ocean sediment cores from the polar regions indicate that temperatures at the poles during previous epochs – when sea level was tens of meters higher – is not too far removed from the temperatures Earth could reach this century on a "business as usual" trajectory.






If there is anything to be learned from paleoclimatic data it is this.
During the cooling phases of the Melankovitch cycles the temperature fell much faster than the CO2, so CO2 was not supporting or causing higher temperatures. Most likely the rise in temperature was the cause of higher CO2 concentrations, not vice versa. If Co2 was not causal then these data can not be used to project the relationship between CO2 and temperature for our present day. Neither can the data be used in this manner because it totally ignores the fact that the heat alone being emitted from our energy use can account for a possible temperature rise of 0.17*F annually. Actual rise is about 0.04*F. The rest of the heat may be going to glacial melting, photosynthesis, and raising the temperature of the crust slightly. We are currently adding 16TW annually (projected to go much higher). If we only continue at this rate, when it is added to the geothermal heat flow of 44TW the factor 1.36 times as much heat will cause, at equilibrium, a rise of 43*F. This based on the fact that radiation is a function of absolute temperature to the fourth power.
If the rate of rise remains steady,equilibrium will be reached in about 1000 years. Cooling will take much longer. Cooling rate during the paleoclimatic period was 0.0002*F per year. It is imperative that we recognize HEAT as the problem. There is a vigorous effort to promote advanced nuclear power as the solution because it emits no CO2, and to promote the capture and sequestration of CO2. Only through photosynthesis should CO2 be "sequestered" since it provides about 5000 BTUs cooling effect for each pound of CO2 converted to cellulose. Get rid of fossil fuels and plant more trees. Carbon(or heat) credits will not work if the heat emitters can still operate.

PH makes a logic error when he dismisses the importance of the greenhouse effect based upon his misunderstanding of natural cycles and radiation physics. Rapid cooling in Milankovitch cycles are driven by the growth of snow and ice which reflect light and heat back to space. The increase in reflectivity driven by ice growth is then amplified by declining CO2 levels resulting from increased CO2 solubility in cooler oceans and decreased breakdown of organic matter.

Humans are doing something different. We are raising CO2 levels which increases the amount of heat retained in the lower atmosphere. The warming is amplified by melting snow and ice and increased release of CO2 from carbon stored on land and in the water.

Just because many natural cycles were not primarily driven by changes in greenhouse gases doesn't mean that we can't drive climate change by emitting greenhouse gases.

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