REGION: Global warming can be delayed four decades, study finds

Abrupt and potentially deadly climate change can be delayed about 40 years without the need for enormously costly cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, according to a new study by a team including scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Cutting back on non-CO2 contributors to climate change will push back the threshold for reaching a dangerous level of global warming, stated the study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Its authors include Mario Molina and Veerabhadran Ramanathan of the institution, part of UC San Diego.


"They can complement strategies for adapting to the effect of climate change by delaying warming for several decades, reducing adaptation costs, and mitigating risks to ecosystems and economic prosperity," the paper stated.

In other words, focusing on carbon dioxide ---- the most widely publicized component of the greenhouse effect ---- is not the most efficient way to gain quick relief from global warming, the paper suggests.

Taking strong action against non-CO2 greenhouse contributors is a "down payment on climate," co-author Durwood Zaelke said in a statement. It would also be timely, with climate negotiations beginning in Copenhagen in December, said Zaelke, co-director of the Program for Governance for Sustainable Development at UC Santa Barbara.

However, the authors say the strategy only delays, but doesn't remove, the need to come to grips with carbon dioxide emissions.

Greenhouse effect

Increased levels of carbon dioxide trap more heat on Earth, causing its temperature to rise. Carbon dioxide is transparent to visible light, but absorbs infrared light, trapping heat similar to the way a greenhouse works.

Burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil adds carbon dioxide to the air, which most climate scientists say is causing temperatures to rise rapidly. And if warming continues, they warn, it will reach a tipping point that makes further warming inevitable.

Unfavorable consequences of global warming are predicted to include more frequent droughts, famines and increased levels of species extinctions. So governments acting on this information are imposing increasingly strict standards on carbon dioxide emissions.

However, rolling back carbon dioxide levels far enough to forestall warming would require an economic restructuring that, according to various estimates, could easily consume hundreds of billions of dollars.

Tremendous cost

An August report from Sandia National Laboratories estimated a $390 billion cost for a program to produce 90 billion gallons per year of cellulosic ethanol by 2030. This ethanol, produced from non-food parts of plants, becomes cost-competitive with gasoline at crude oil prices of $90 per barrel and above.

Burning ethanol and other biofuels such as algae-based fuels puts carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, as do fossil fuels. However, their production takes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The study, "Reducing abrupt climate change using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions," can be found online at

The Sandia report, "Feasibility, economics, and environmental impact of producing 90 billion gallons of ethanol per year by 2030," can be found at


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