Introduction to US Employment economic indicators

Layoff Recession Unemployment

﻿Employment Situation
Market Sensitivity: Very high
Frequency: Monthly
Release Time: 8:30 a.m. first Friday of each month; covers previous month Revisions: can be major; revisions go back 2 mo.; benchmark change for establishment/payroll survey every June; benchmark change for household survey every 10 years

A weekly index that gauges the number of people hired for temporary or contract work.

Table A

Table B

*The change in the number of non-farm jobs created includes positions in government. It’s important to keep an eye on how federal, state, and local governments influence overall non-farm employment

Table B2

Table A-8

Table A-11

Table A-12

**15 weeks and over

Table A-15

Table B-1

*temporary job
*child day care services
Table B-1 Continued

*truck transportation

Strong job report (especially unexpected) portend accelerating inflation and rising interest rate  anathema to bondholders Expect a sell-off in fixed-income securities when job creation is surging How far bond prices will fall and how much yields will rise depends on many factors, especially where the economy is in the business cycle Just climbed from recession: jump in employment have modest effect because little danger of inflation Economy near peak capacity: deep drop in bond prices and sharply higher interest rates Weak employment reports  sluggish economy  bullish for bond prices (interest rate head lower) Stocks

Robust employment report  people holding jobs increase and workweek expands  employees slip into role of consumers and spend Expectations: business sales and profits will pick up
 set the stage for the rally in the equity market
EXCEPTION: economy overheating (interest rates and inflation going UP)  higher cost of borrowing...
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