Thursday, August 21, 2014

A reanalysis of the 1931-43 Atlantic hurricane database

In, Michael Dickinson posted an interesting analysis of Atlantic hurricanes. Here's the abstract, broken up for readability: A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database ("best track") for the period from 1931 to 1943 has been completed as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems.

Methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is largely unchanged from that of the preceding couple of decades and has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. Accurate Environmental Forecasting's numerical weather prediction-based wind field model was utilized here to help determine which states were impacted by various hurricane force winds in several U.S. landfalling major hurricanes during this era.

The 1931-43 dataset now includes 23 new tropical cyclones, excludes five systems previously considered tropical storms, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (at various times both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems.

Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this time period....

A still from John Ford's 1937 film, "The Hurricane"

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