Thursday, 20 November 2014

Blind Men, Blind Elephants.

Six blind men encounter an elephant. The first touches its leg and declares that an elephant is like a pillar. Another touches its side and says that an elephant is a rough wall. Next one feels its tail and says that an elephant is like a piece of rope. Each of them touches different part of the elephant and is convinced that their own explanation is correct and that the others are wrong. None of them realizes that they are all experiencing just one part of the same elephant and that none of their explanations are complete.

There was another blind man hearing all these arguments. He exclaimed aloud “I wonder what an elephant is really like” .The mahout heard this and took him to the elephant. He made the blind man explore the elephant and told him a lot about the animal. Even though there is no way to know exactly how an elephant looked like, he was able to get a good idea, far better than the other six.

Traders are like the blind men. Nobody knows the exact structure of the market and never
will. They reach some conclusions with their limited experience and exposure and refuse to change it. Be like the seventh blind man if you want to survive in the market as a trader.

There is another version of the story. In a forest, there lived six elephants. These elephants were blind by birth. They heard a lot about men and were wondering what men were like. After arguing a lot, they decided to find one and determine it by direct experience.

One day a poor man stranded into the forest losing his way. The blind elephants caught him. The first elephant felt the man with its trunk and front leg. He declared “Men are flat”. One by one, the other elephants felt the man. They too agreed. Elephants left the place, happy with their new discovery, leaving the dead man aside.

You know this man and the elephants well. The man was a poor retail trader and the elephants were stocks, futures, options, commodities, currency and bond markets. Be careful. Don’t get lost in this jungle and get crushed by the blind elephants.




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