The chain of future conflict, part 2

See part 1 here.




* Barriers to immigration will rise.






War crimes in Sri Lanka, but does it matter?

International law exists partly to deter the worst actions by governments. But so many violations of international law go unpunished. Much has been done by international actors such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its sponsors, and national courts invoking universal jurisdiction such as Spain’s and Britain’s to end impunity. But in general, international law is very hard to enforce and impunity is the rule, not the exception.

That is why the opening of a new chapter in the debate about war crimes committed by Sri Lanka’s government against the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) might be pointless. Several groups, including Human Rights Watch and the International Crisis Group, accuse the Sri Lankan government of war crimes. But while these groups can investigate, put together reports, publish findings and so on, they have no power to bring criminals to justice.

Leaving aside the fact that both the Sri Lankan military and the Tamil Tigers probably violated international law, the remaining question is, does it matter? Will anyone be brought to justice over it? The ICC has done a reasonably good job so far, with the help of national authorities, in prosecuting the most egregious offenders, but the fact that many of its indictees, such as Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, run free, is testament to the challenges the system has yet to overcome. But the progress made since World War Two has been impressive. It should continue. All Sri Lankan leaders, Tamil and Sinhalese, who violated human rights should be held accountable.







Can Sri Lanka find peace?

I have some questions about the current conflict in Sri Lanka. If we can answer them, Sri Lanka might be able to find peace after the dust clears.

First, are the government’s actions legal? If the Sri Lankan military are doing all they can to minimise civilian casualties, including letting them escape, then it should be legal. The problem is that reporting on this conflict (like most) is very difficult and determining lies and truth about this conflict (like most) is even harder.

Second, how do you wipe out a terrorist movement? I recognise that not all war is wrong, at least in this warlike world we live in, and that sometimes fighting is necessary to make progress on peace. If possible, it may be a good idea to try to wipe out the terrorist group altogether. That said, how does one go about doing that? The conventional wisdom is, for every terrorist killed, another is created, or two or five are created, as angry friends and relatives swear revenge; but the more I hear conventional wisdom, the more I doubt it. Surely, if they know who the members of the movement are, they can wipe it out. Then again, perhaps there is more to the Tamil Tigers than their members and their bombs. Perhaps they have long ago spread their doctrine to the rest of the Tamil population of Sri Lanka and a new movement can start as soon as the old one dies.

Third, is war the best way to deter a separatist or terrorist movement? Decisive military victory makes it possible to secure peace. After a conflict, the reconciliation can begin. But again, perhaps this conflict will create more angry people, and more desire for separation among Sri Lankan Tamils. The Sri Lankan government has its work cut out for it if the next step is to securing long-lasting peace. And if that is not the next step, expect another Tiger movement.

I believe that most people in Sri Lanka want peace after all these years of bloodshed. If the political leadership of both sides is committed, and works fast after this battle that the Sinhalese seem poised to win, then there is a chance for a lasting peace in Sri Lanka.