Friday, February 10, 2006

** How we got here by Andy Kessler

How we got here by Andy Kessler

Just about every bank in existence today is basically bankrupt. A deposit made in a bank is an asset for you, but it's a liability for the bank, since it owes you the money. But then bank lends out the depositor's money as loans, and those loans are the bank's assets. Bank always have fewer 'assets' than 'liabilities', and therefore a negative net worth. p91

In 1939, Grace Hopper was given the task of programming one of the first IBM computers (the Mark 2-4 series at Harvard). When trying to figure out why one of her programs didn't work, she actually found a moth caught in one of the electronic relays. No myth, she pasted the moth into the logbook of Mark 2 (now at the Smithsonian). Hence the name computer bug. p124

The US is a huge exporter of intellectual property, although these exports are hard to quantify and measure. Often, an entire architecture of a chip, valued at $1 billion can be emailed to a factory in Taiwan, without a cash register ringing or a Commerce Dept employee around to measure the export. That IP is combined with low margin labor, plastic, and power supplies and turned into a laptop or DVD player. This margin surplus run by the US is the way to run an economy with declining price products. p193

* Empire of Debt by Bill Bonner

Empire of Debt by Bill Bonner

In France, people don't seek to maximize their incomes. Instead, what they want to maximize is their leisure. They spend more time talking about how to cook the bacon than they do about how to bring it home. p11

Asians now own enough US assets to buy a controlling interest in every company on the Dow. p16

And you thought Wilt Chamberlain was a stud?
Genghis Khan was so successful that a recent DNA study of 2,123 men from across Asia permitted scientists to estimate that he may have as many 16 million male descendants spread out from Manchuria to Afghanistan. p43

Between Augustus came to power and day Jesus was born - 27 years - consumer prices in Rome nearly doubled… Whenever the Romans needed more money to finance their wars, public works, circuses, etc. they reduced the metal content of the coins (equivalent to running the printing presses today). By the time of the last emperor in 476AD, the silver denarius contained only .02% silver! p51 … While this seems like a dreadful rate of inflation (losing 99.98% of its value!), it is not really as bad as the current US dollar example. In less than 100 years, the dollar has lost 95% of its value. If this rate continues for another 150 years, the dollar will do in 1/2 the time what took the denarius almost 500 years. p61

The total value of all assets in America today is about $50 trillion. Current US debt is $37 trillion. Add to it the present liability of social security and medicare and America is broke… It couldn't pay its debts even if it wanted to. p294

Decimation defined: When a company of soldiers performed badly in battle (or cowardly), they would be lined up and every 10th man was executed. At Stalingrad in WWII, the Russian Marshal Chuikov resurrected the ancient Roman tradition to improve discipline. p325

Saturday, February 04, 2006

** The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil

The Singularity is Near by Ray Kurzweil

What is the singularity, and why will it happen?



