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University of Arizona' mission would seek clues for asteroid collision warning

The asteroid 1999 RQ36 was chosen for the University of Arizona's space mission because it's relatively easy to get to and is potentially hazardous to Earth.

Analyzing the object up close and grabbing a sample would enable scientists to do two things: provide more detail on the likelihood of the asteroid colliding with Earth and shed more light on the development of our solar system.

"It's trying to answer really big questions at the highest level: Where did we come from, and what is our destiny?" said UA professor Michael Drake, the project's principal investigator.

Asteroids are much smaller than planets, made of rock or metal, and they orbit the sun. Most are too small to cause much damage. The 4.5 billion-year-old chunks of rock burn up as they make their way through Earth's atmosphere.

On rare occasions, though, larger ones strike Earth. The mile-wide Meteor Crater east of Flagstaff is an example of an asteroid smashing into Earth some 50,000 years ago. One scientific theory blames the extinction of dinosaurs on an impact in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula 65 million years ago.

Scientists have identified 1,225 potentially hazardous asteroids, though it's rare for large asteroids to get extremely close to Earth. On March 23, 1989, an asteroid about a fifth of a mile in diameter passed through Earth's orbit at a place where the planet had been only six hours earlier.

RQ36 is known as a "near-Earth object," meaning its 1.2-year-orbit around the sun places it within a few hundred thousand miles of Earth at times. The asteroid is classified as potentially hazardous by NASA because of its size and proximity to Earth. Earth's gravity changes the asteroid's orbit in ways that are difficult to predict.

Scientists say the asteroid, a third of a mile in diameter, would cause significant damage if it collided with Earth. The collision would explode with the force of 100 nuclear warheads, creating a crater about 4 miles in diameter and causing widespread damage for hundreds of miles.

One recent study put the odds of RQ36 hitting Earth at 1 in 1,800 in the year 2182. But that's an estimate based on basic laws of planetary motion and limited understanding of the asteroid.

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Other factors come into play, including a phenomenon where the sun's radiation causes the rock to heat up and the thermal energy alters its orbit. That could push the asteroid even closer to Earth.

An up-close analysis and sample would give scientists more details on the asteroid's composition, temperature and likely course toward Earth.

It also would provide more clues on the origins of our solar system. Currently, only the most durable asteroids survive the trip through Earth's atmosphere.

Scientists are most interested in asteroids that are water-rich and contain organic materials, which are also likely the most fragile. RQ36 is believed to be rich in carbon compounds, including a lot of water and clay materials.

"We're missing some critical pieces of information that only an asteroid-sample return can answer," said Dante Lauretta, the project's deputy principal investigator.

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