Page Two

By eweek  |  Posted 2003-10-24 Print this article Print

There is increasing concern that the technology industry is moving overseas. Your thoughts? Taiwan, with a population of 25 million, makes 50 percent of computer peripherals. Lets imagine a country like China with two and a half billion people coming into the system. Would it be an impact 100 times as big? Even if its only 10 times as big, its cataclysmic.
Classical economists will tell you its wonderful; a rising tide lifts all boats: If they get the jobs, the standard of living and consumption power goes up and then well sell to them. But the devil is in the details. If they take all the jobs before they start buying things, is that a challenge? The one clear thing is you have to move your contribution to a higher level on a continuing basis.
Thats a source of consternation. When people see engineering and white-collar jobs going away, people say, whats the higher level, whats the next step up? There are no simple answers to that. Thats why education, R&D and infrastructure are so important. Those are the things that drive your competitiveness. If you dont do a good job on those, then you get left behind. Thats the national debate Id like to see. But the debate were having is how to protect textile jobs in North Carolina. Were looking at the old equation. Intel has become the platform of choice for Windows and Linux. How does that change your responsibility for security? We, as well as the OS, the middleware and the apps guys, all have responsibility in that area. And the technology were coming out with, whether its Lagrande, virtualization or Vanderpool technology, is designed to provide some hardware assist to the hardware-software stack. Were investing even outside of our domain, for example, in content protection, whether its broadcast flags or closing the analog hole or things of that sort. So, yes, we have a responsibility in those areas. Looking ahead for the next decade, you have plans to enhance your microprocessors with multiple core technologies. Looking farther ahead, theres talk of carbon nanotubes and the like. How do you see the future? The architectural innovations, the multiple core technology, are clearly going to happen. There is also tunable radio technology that is clearly going to happen, which will bring about seamless connectivity regardless of the protocol that you connect to. Youre also going to see all sorts of hype about nanotech and thin polymer films for memory storage applications and some things. But if you want to look at the workhorse for logic, its the seamless transistor. Weve already got four or five generations working in our laboratories. Were introducing 90-nanometer this year. Weve already got the 65-, 45-, the 25- and the 15-nanometer transistors in our laboratories. That extension is predictable, and as long as its predictable, it is increasingly difficult for a disruptive technology to come in with the same economic efficiency that the seamless transistor has. So theres not a window for a disruptive technology between now and 2010? Its beyond 2010. It is clear that the seamless transistor will be replaced just as the vacuum tube was replaced. However, Im comfortable that the seamless transistor will be good for the next 10 to 20 years because weve already got the next five generations teed up. Discuss this in the eWEEK forum.


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