Does not knowing where you'd take shelter in the event of a single, low-yield (0.1-10 kilotons) nuclear detonation in a major urban area keep you awake at night? We thought so.

But don't worry, mathematician Michael B Dillon has drafted a comprehensive guide on where and when you should take shelter as the nuclear fallout slowly poisons your body.

Schematic of response strategies

Michael B. Dillon

According to Dillon, 10,000 to 100,000 lives could be saved from fatal exposure to fallout radiation if adequate shelter were sought immediately following the blast. Adequate shelter includes buildings that are constructed from heavyweight materials and contain basements.

For example, if you initially take cover in a poor quality shelter but are aware of adequate shelter that is no more than 15 minutes away, you should stay put for, at most, 30 minutes after detonation before moving on. However, if adequate shelter is available nearby (within five minutes), then you should immediately proceed to the better shelter.

Governmental advice has always been to seek shelter, with US federal guidance stating that "the best initial action immediately following a nuclear explosion is to take shelter in the nearest and most protective building". But what makes Dillon's report unique, is the specific evacuation times based on a series of exhaustive formulas.

"The methods developed here estimate the optimal shelter exit time that minimises the total radiation exposure." says Dillon. It is hoped the report will help assist emergency planning officials in the development of an optimal low-yield nuclear detonation response strategy. Specifically, Dillon is interested in not only the minimisation of radiation dose, but also "the minimisation of physiological stress and the efficient allocation of resources to minimise the total loss of life".

A low-yield detonation is 0.1-10 kilotons (kT) -- 1 kT is equal to 1,000 metric tons of TNT. The largest thermonuclear weapon ever tested was the USSR's Tsar Bomba, weighing in at an astonishing 57,000 kT, which was scaled down from its initial 100,000 kT design by 50 percent. If one of those drops on London, you might want to forget the shelter. 


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