Edition: U.S. / Global

Puzzling Questions Are Raised on Statistics on AIDS Epidemic

Published: July 22, 1988
(Page 2 of 2)

There is some doubt about the testing itself, which is for the antibodies to the AIDS virus. Researchers have found some people who are infected with the virus but do not produce antibodies, but it is not known how commonly this occurs. A new test has been developed to detect the virus itself, but it is not yet in wide use.

Q. What about the testing done on the millions of donors to blood banks and of military recruits?

A. Because the blood banks stringently discourage drug abusers, homosexuals and bisexuals and others at risk for AIDS from donating blood, the resulting donors are not a true cross section.

For military applicants, again the sample may not be truly representative. Applicants often are from poor neighborhoods where drug use is high. On the other hand, since drug abuse and homosexual acts are banned in the military, the people most likely to be infected may avoid enlisting.

Q. How big are the groups at high risk for AIDS?

A. The groups that have suffered the most AIDS cases are gay and bisexual men, and intravenous drug abusers.

It is impossible to give a precise count of either group. There is no central registry of drug abusers or gays, no census data on them, no reliable opinion polls on them.

Both groups are largely underground. Drug abuse is illegal throughout the nation, and homosexual acts used to be prohibited. Both behaviors are considered unacceptable by many other people.

In New York City, the number of intravenous drug abvusers is frequently estimated at 200,000 to 250,000, based on data such as drug arrests, births of addicted babies, overdose deaths and applications for drug treatment, as well as on the impressions of law-enforcement and drug-treatment professionals.

Although drug experts acknowledge this estimate to be ''soft,'' it is considered more reliable than the wide-ranging estimates of homosexuals and bisexuals.

The Kinsey survey of male sexual behavior, released 40 years ago and based in part on data obtained before World War II, is still the major reference work in that field. But the apparent changes stemming from sexual liberation, as well as the migration of homosexuals to big cities like New York, suggest the Kinsey study is an outdated and unreliable guide.

Q. How can can we get better statistics?

A. Better diagnoses of deaths and illnesses, stricter requirements for reporting them, broader definitions of AIDS illnesses, refinements in tests for AIDS and wider testing would give a clearer picture of the AIDS epidemic.

Such information would allow more effective efforts at preventing the further spread of the virus and in preparing medical and social services to help people sick with and dying of AIDS.

The President's commission on AIDS and other experts agree that strong confidentiality protections and outlawing discrimination against those with AIDS illness or infection are essential for obtaining the best data and avoiding misuse of the information.