Start worrying, this is serious

September 26, 2005

An Asian bird flu pandemic looms, but there is still no effective vaccine.

While Western governments have been fixated on the threat of terrorism, a potentially more dangerous threat to human life has been looming. There is, as yet, no pandemic of Asian bird flu: since late 2003 it has killed 64 people in four Asian countries. But in Indonesia, where it emerged only two months ago, a state of emergency has been declared following the deaths of two children and the quarantining of others suspected of having been infected. The big worry is that the virus, so far contracted from infected birds, could mutate into a deadly human-to-human form. Australia's chief medical officer, John Horvath, has acknowledged that a pandemic is "very much on the cards in the forseeable future". Once people are infected, the fatality rate exceeds 50 per cent. Studies by the World Health Organisation warn that as a worst-case scenario, a global pandemic of a mutated bird flu virus could kill up to 100 million people - or more than twice as many as died early last century when within six months Spanish flu swept around the world.

It is fair to say the possibility of such a disaster has not yet impinged much on the public consciousness - nor, until recently, on the consciousness of political leaders. Prime Minister John Howard says the Federal Government is watching the situation closely, and at the instigation of Australia and the United States, bird flu will be on the agenda of the forthcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum meeting in South Korea. Australia is better prepared than most countries, with more antivirals (which can provide some protection in the absence of a vaccine) per person than any country except Finland. But we have about 4 million antiviral doses, for a population of more than 20 million. Australians are entitled to be told how this is going to be distributed in the event of a major epidemic.

Even so, we have a far greater defence than the poorer countries in our region. The Government is supplying Indonesia with some medication, but whether it is doing enough is doubtful. Travel warnings can and have been issued but if a pandemic does break out it will be no respecter of borders. The best hope of preventing one is to monitor and slow the spread of infections long enough to develop an effective vaccine. Given the risks, it is in Australia's self-interest as well as in the interests of morality to help the countries in our region to cope with the threat of an almost unthinkable health disaster.