HIV/AIDS Skepticism



Posted by Henry Bauer on 2008/02/03

I noted some time ago (NOTEWORTHY SUCCESSES AGAINST AIDS IN AFRICA, 4 December 2007) that several African countries (Kenya, Uganda, Zimbabwe) were able to decrease the prevalence of HIV more than could be accounted for by deaths. That’s just another of the many mysteries posed by HIV/AIDS theory. Infection by HIV is said to be permanent. Therefore, if the overall rate of infection in a country decreases, that can only be through removal of infected individuals through death or emigration—removal of a larger number than the number of new infections.

(An alternative explanation, of course, is that “HIV-positive” is neither permanent nor a sign of infection by a virus. But that simple explanation is beyond the pale.)

Rwanda offers another such nail in the coffin of HIV/AIDS theory:

“Rwanda in mass circumcision drive” (BBC, 22 January 2008 )
”Figures from the World Bank last year put the prevalence of Aids in the country at about 3%, down from 11% in 2000.”

So at least 8% of the population must have died from HIV/AIDS during seven or eight years, say 1% per year. (“At least” because it assumes no new infections during that time.) The total population is a little less than 10,000,000. Therefore about 100,000 a year must have died from HIV/AIDS.

The CIA Fact Book gives the overall death rate in Rwanda as about 15 per 1000. For the population of 10 million, this is 150,000 per year. If there were 100,000 deaths from HIV/AIDS, then deaths from all other causes would have been only 50,000, or 5 per 1000 for the population as a whole. Such a “natural” death rate of 5 per 1000, however, is impossibly lower than that in the countries enjoying the longest lifespan: overall death rates are 10.3 per 1000 in Sweden, about 9 in Japan, 8.3 in the USA, 7.9 in Canada, 7.6 in Australia.

But perhaps 100,000 didn’t die each year from HIV disease; after all, the CIA Fact Book also gives the number of HIV/AIDS deaths for 2003 as 22,000.

Perhaps 78,000 HIV-positive Rwandans (100,000 minus 22,000) became spontaneously HIV-negative each year?
No, we’re told that’s impossible (even though there are plenty of reports of spontaneous seroreversion, see for instance HIV “INFECTION” DISAPPEARS SPONTANEOUSLY, 22 January 2008)

Perhaps the HIV-positive rates reported by the World Bank were wrong by something like a factor of about 5?
Well, if so, then the policies regarding HIV/AIDS that have been followed by the World Bank and other such prestigious organizations are based on entirely wrong numbers.

Perhaps HIV/AIDS numbers issued by official bodies shouldn’t be taken too seriously?
Indeed they should not; see Russian statistics in HIV NONSENSE: TODAY AND EVERY DAY, 22 November 2007; HIV DOUBLETHINK, 27 November 2007; HIV/AIDS: NUMBERS THAT DON’T ADD UP, 29 November; WORLD AIDS DAY . . ., 22 December 2007.

Perhaps numbers from the CIA Fact Book should not be taken seriously? After all, it reports that the Rwandan population grew at an estimated rate of 2.766% (not, in other words [or numbers] a rate of 2.767%, or of 2.765%).
How could an estimate be so accurate?
Once again, apparently the output of a computer program was copied, published, and disseminated without the benefit of intervening thought. CIA statisticians need to be included among those federal officials who deserve a short course in the use of significant figures in mathematics (MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL LIES ABOUT HIV/AIDS, 2 December 2007).


  1. MacDonald said

    Regardless what the reason for the drop is, if the trend continues, in another 3-4 years Rwanda will be AIDS-free.

    The absurdity couldn’t possibly be brought out any better than by comparing with rich, highly organized and educated Western societies, none of which can boast even remotely similar achievements to the one claimed for Rwanda.

  2. CathyVM said

    Thailand is another claimed “success story” that has bizarre statistics.

    UNAIDS put 2003-2005 estimated death at 21,000 and a 2005 prevalence of 1.4% or 580,000 (actually 0.9%)
    The CIA World Factbook claims 2003 deaths at 58,000 and the prevalence at 570,000

    UNDP 2004 claims the number of new infections dropped from 143,000 in 1991 to 19,000 in 2003. Assuming the drop was steady (and not precipitous early on followed by a flatline) that is a decrease of ~11,000 new infections decrease per year. This totals approx 724,000 new infections from 1993 to 2003.

    Total pop 64,000,000
    1993 = 1,280,000 + 724,000 new infections, total 2,004,000 even infected
    2003 = only 580,000 +ves, which surely means over 1.4 million people died over the ten year period. Even if you use the high CIA figure of 58,000 deaths for 2003 that’s still an awful lot of missing bodies.

  3. MacDonald said

    Patrick Brenny, UNAIDS country coordinator for Thailand recently explained the “hard science” behind the conclusion that Thai prisons are veritable HIV incubators fueling a smoldering epidemic:

    “Because so little data exists, and because there are such disparities in what little data does exist, it is hard to be conclusive. What the real story is and its significance in terms of size and scope of problem, no one really knows. There is a good chance HIV transmission is happening in prisons, and there is a good chance more is coming out than is going in.”

    This impeccable argument has informed AIDS policies and funding initiatives not only in Thailand but internationally as well.

  4. cytotalker said

    Slightly off-topic, on the differences between disease marker prevalence between races, the following analysis of the racial differences in neuroendocrinological responses to stress, particularly differences in the levels of cortisol and ACTH, our endogenous glucocorticoids or immunesuppressive hormones, may prove to have greater bearing on the different propensities to immune suppression between blacks and whites, rather than the more widely accepted stereotypical infectious-disease-centered epidemiological explanations.


  5. cytotalker said

    Of greater relevance to this discussion than my previous comment, is this letter by a South African prison medical officer on the amazingly low prevalence of HIV among South African inmates even though they present an elevated incidence of sexually transmitted diseases. He then goes on to explain that the high national estimates are based on maternity clinic testing, which is ridden with false positives.

  6. cytotalker said

    With regards to comment number 4 on different racial immune stress responses, the racial differences occurred in a Baltimore population sample and should not be immediately extrapolated to Africans and Europeans.

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