Why the World Is Not Producing Enough Grain

Kenneth Cassman

Kenneth G. Cassman is the Heuermann professor of agronomy at the University of Nebraska.

February 15, 2011

Current high food prices and spate of floods and droughts reflect an abrupt transition from a world where grain production exceeded demand, to one in which production capacity is not adequate. How could such an historical reversal occur so suddenly, and why so much confusion about the causes?

The world needs to produce more food, but land converted to agricultural use will accelerate greenhouse gas emissions.

Three trends are responsible, and they have flown under the radar.

First, the speed of economic development in the world’s most populous countries has been faster than expected, resulting in higher incomes and greater per capita food consumption.

Second, crop yield gains have slowed, and grain yields have stagnated for a large portion of global grain supply. Examples include rice in Korea, Japan and China; wheat in India and much of Europe; and maize in China. Although conversion of new land to crop production can offset this slowdown, most spare land suitable for agriculture resides under rain forests, wetlands and grassland savannah. Conversion of these carbon-rich and bio-diverse ecosystems should be avoided because it would accelerate greenhouse gas emissions and increase extinctions.

Third, there has been a substantial decrease in funding of research to enhance yields by methods other than biotechnology.

Biofuel production has reduced land used for food cultivation, but can be turned off when grain prices are high.

And while biofuels contribute to increased grain demand, they are also an early warning system. All corn used in 2010 U.S. ethanol production is equivalent to food requirements of 240 million well-fed people, which is three years population growth. Biofuel production can be turned off when grain prices are high. Thus, biofuels have raised awareness of the food security challenge, which can only be addressed through greater investment in agricultural research, education and technology transfer.

Lest we forget, low grain prices and abundant supplies from 1982-2004 justified the large reduction of investment in agriculture, both in the United States and globally.

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Topics: Agriculture, China, World, food, hunger

Is the World Producing Enough Food?
