Nuclear Weapons, Accident vs. Willful Use
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Nuclear Weapons, the Accident Answer

In the case of 9 nations, each independently presenting one chance of a willful use in 902 years and one chance of an accidental use in 390 years, during the period under consideration:

The chance of an Accidental Use is 2.3 times greater than the chance of a Willful Use [2.3=902/390].

Check out other scenarios in Nukefix. The reason that the chance of Accidental Use tends to be significantly higher than Willful Use is that Accident has four subcomponents . Even when these subcomponents are individually highly reliable (for example, on average, sufficiently reliable that each would independently contribute only one chance of failure in 1,560 years), in combination they produce one quarter of the average starting reliability. As Nukefix points out, this conforms to standard laws of probability [1,560=4x390].

Observe that 1,602 years have elapsed since the beginning of the Middle Ages. When we are talking about reliabilities of one failure in 1,560 years, we are talking about highly reliable systems in which accident still presents more than twice the danger of a willful use.

If we translate Feynman's previously cited teachings to nuclear weapons, we have the statement: "if the real probability is not so small, . . .[the nuclear weapons system] would show troubles, near failures, and possibly actual failures with a reasonable number of trials, and standard statistical methods could give a reasonable estimate. In fact, previous . . . experience had shown on occasion just such difficulties, . . . all giving warning that the probability of . . . failure was not so very small." The question we need to answer is: Can reliability levels, on average, more favorable than one failure in 1,560 years be achieved for each of the four accident components in each of the 9 nuclear weapon nations?

If not, then in scenarios with nine nuclear weapon nations, the chance of accident will always be more than twice as great as the chance of a willful use, when the median years of nuclear peace exceed 20 years. A few mouse clicks in Nukefix will confirm this.

Those who rely on Nuclear Deterrence do so in the face of conditions which are typically twice as likely to produce an Accidental Use as Willful Use.

While Nuclear Deterrence gets the press and vast discussion, it turns out that the 800 lb. gorilla is Accident.

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