THE general take on the crime figures released on September 19th by the South Africa Police Service (SAPS) is that they are “the worst in ten years”. This phrase cropped up in many newspapers today. The casual reader might deduce that the overall incidence of crime—and especially of violent crime—is higher now than it was a decade ago. A glance at the statistics as presented by the SAPS suggests things are not quite as bad as that. But they nevertheless reveal some worrying trends.  

The overall incidence of crime (measured by a group of 20 serious crimes) fell by 1.3% in 2012-13 to 4,068 crimes per 100,000 population. The corresponding rate in 2003-04 was much higher at 5,513. That is good news. It is depressing how high the rate still is. The rate of decline has been far slower in the past few years than it was before 2009. But the figures suggest a typical person living in South Africa is at less risk of crime than she was a decade ago.

So why the despairing headlines? One concern is that the trend decline in the murder rate has clearly stalled. The rate edged up from 30.9 to 31.1 per 100,000 population last year (see chart). The rate of crime against the person continued to fall but only because there were fewer assaults. It is not a great comfort to South Africans to know that they are lot less likely to be beaten up if they are a bit more likely to be murdered.

The other big concern is that certain kinds of property crimes rose sharply. Car theft fell but that is largely because manufacturers are making cars that are harder to steal. The incidence of theft from cars rose. So did carjackings. And the home burglary rate is also increasing. It is hard not to make a link between the recent rise property crime and the worsening job prospects of many young South Africans.