Hurricane Florence's track shifts but upstate NY isn't out of the woods

Steve Orr | Rochester Democrat and Chronicle | 10:25 am EDT September 12, 2018
Cameras outside the International Space Station captured dramatic views of rapidly strengthening Hurricane Florence Sept. 10.
NASA - International Space Station, Fort Myers News-Press

Forecasters now say Hurricane Florence likely track has shifted and the massive storm, which has forced the evacuation of millions, may not drift northward as had been previously expected.

But that doesn't mean that upstate New York will necessarily dodge all impact from Florence. The shift in track could cause the storm to lose more of its oomph before it arrives, but it still could come this way early next week.

Experts warn that Hurricane Florence could be the most devastating hurricane to hit the southeastern coastline in decades.

The eye of Hurricane Florence as of 8 a.m. on Sept. 12, 2018.

The storm, which was 500 miles off the North Carolina coast Wednesday morning, is expected to bring extreme winds, a large storm surge and extraordinary amounts of rain to the Carolinas starting late Thursday.

Earlier computer model output suggested that Florence, once ashore, would veer north and pass over North Carolina, Virginia and western Maryland. That path could have taken the storm's remnants into western New York by the middle of next week.

But most of the latest computer model runs predict the storm may stall near the coastline and eventually move slowly to the southwest. This new output takes the storm west over South Carolina and potentially into Georgia or even Florida.

Forecasters said that a persistent high-pressure system over the northeastern quadrant of the country is essentially blocking Florence from moving to the north.

But that system is expected to move away in the coming days, and forecasters say it remains likely that the remnants of Florence eventually will be picked up by the jet stream and dragged toward the northeastern states.

"Eventually some of the moisture may be captured ... spread northward into our region by around Tuesday, but this scenario is still very uncertain," the National Weather Service office in Buffalo said Wedneday morning in its detailed forecast.

"Even if the remnants of Florence were to move towards our region, by then it will have spent many days over land and would also need to cross the Appalachians, where the majority of the rain would fall. The forward speed of the system would also be rapidly increasing," the Buffalo forecasters wrote. "Given these considerations, in the small chance the remnants of Florence do approach our region, the impacts would most likely be minimal."

Exactly how minimal the impact isn't yet clear. Various computer models predict between a half-inch and two inches of rain in the Rochester area next Tuesday or Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center suggests that some areas of upstate New York could get more than two inches.

Potential rainfall through next Wednesday morning
National Weather Service

It is not uncommon for spent hurricanes to meander over upstate New York. Usually they bring rain and some gusty winds. What was left of Hurricane Gordon dumped 1.19 inches of rain in Rochester on Monday. It was a record rainfall for that date.

The most notorious upstate New York hurricane in recent memory is Agnes, which caused severe flooding in southern New York and dumped 3 inches of rain in the Rochester area in June 1972. The heavy precipitation contributed to serious shoreline flooding on Lake Ontario the following winter and spring.

View | 304 Photos

In the Carolinas, meteorologists and emergency officials have been warning of widespread wind damage, power outages and potentially catastrophic flooding from rainfall that could surpass 2 feet in some locations.

Hurricane Florence weakens to Category 2

South Carolina has ordered the evacuation of roughly 1 million people who live near the Atlantic shore in that state.

In North Carolina, officials in coastal Dare and Hyde counties ordered a mandatory evacuation for everyone, tourists and residents. The exodus slowed to a crawl in some areas amid heavy traffic and roads awash with early storm surge.

The University of North Carolina and North Carolina State were among schools shutting down in advance of the storm.

“This storm is a monster. It’s big and it’s vicious,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said Tuesday. “The time to hope Hurricane Florence away is gone.”

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam ordered a mandatory evacuation to begin Tuesday for 245,000 people in parts of the Hampton Roads area and the eastern shore. 

View | 40 Photos

Includes reporting by USA Today staff writers John Bacon and Doyle Rice.

Hurricane Florence can be seen barreling toward the East Coast in this satellite image, followed by another tropical storm and a hurricane. Two other storm systems could form to the north and south.


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