If you believe any of the recent tabloid headlines about next month's weather, you're probably worried about a "polar vortex" about to "batter" us with snow by "smashing" into Britain in a few weeks.

But is there any truth in these stark warnings and, more importantly, does this mean Derbyshire might finally see some snow?

Put quite simply, nothing is certain. Even the tabloids can't forecast snow this far ahead but, as is often the case, there's no smoke without fire.

What forecasters have been getting excited about recently and, what could indicate the potential of some snowy days in the next fortnight, is a succession of events high above the earth which could drive a change in the weather.

It's all centred around two significant weather-influencers that are beginning to look increasingly likely to combine this month - a sudden stratospheric warming and a disruption of the Polar Vortex.

What is a Polar Vortex?

The polar vortex is something we've known about for decades, and it's a pocket of extremely cold air that lies tens of thousands of feet up in the atmosphere, usually above the Earth's Poles.

The polar vortex on a computer chart
The polar vortex on a computer chart

Often during winter, this spinning mass of cold air and low pressure can be disrupted, and the cold air can be sent into our jetstream, which funnels weather systems around the northern hemisphere and drives our weather events. That's perfectly normal and Europe might see anything from a sharp frost to a thick covering of snow.

So what does that mean for Derbyshire?

Over the last few weeks weather experts have been watching a potential sudden stratospheric warming, which is another complicated phenomenon high above us that can, in extreme cases, wreak havoc with the UK's weather.

The sudden warming a mile above us can cause the Polar Vortex to shift south and weaken, or even split up, and this can send relatively warm air into the jetstream.

This can lead to a "blocking effect" of high pressure that can lock in cold air from the east of the UK and create a long cold snap.

Remember the "Beast from the East" in February? That was caused by a similar set of circumstances.

So there's a number of possible outcomes, and it's all incredibly hard to predict, but long-range forecasters have been watching this potential set of events since November, so they're becoming increasingly confident in some very cold weather arriving by or before the middle of the month.

But when will we see snow?

It's honestly far too early to say for sure.

Certainly impossible to pin a date down.

All the models currently suggest cold weather could properly arrive mid-January, so work on the basis of some ground frosts, tricky driving conditions and maybe - just maybe, some snow in the third week. But that's a prediction that can, and probably will, change.

Any sources predicting snow on a particular date more than a week in advance are pretty much plucking numbers out of the sky.

February's sudden stratospheric warming
February's sudden stratospheric warming

It's also important to remember that last winter's "Beast from the East" occurred because of a fairly exceptional set of circumstances and, while there's a chance a similar blocking pattern could occur next month, the Polar Vortex is nothing new, unusual or frightening and sudden stratospheric warmings often happen at this time of year.

But if you're a snow-lover and you're desperate to see a return of the white stuff, the chances are looking increasingly good that Derbyshire might see a covering this month.

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