London could have a climate similar to Barcelona by 2050 if climate change continues, bringing huge problems.

Worryingly, this is an 'optimistic' prediction, so it could be an even bigger shift.

The research conducted on 520 major cities pairs up a 2050 predicted climate with a current 2019 climate to show the changes set to occur.

It could bring major challenges for the UK if it is unprepared for the shift.

The tube is not currently adapted to cope with sustained periods of heat and the city may not be prepared for sustained drought periods.

Climate change will lead to more rainfall and more flooding

Edinburgh's cooler climate is also set to replicate Paris' current climate and Manchester is set to mirror Uruguay's capital city Montevideo's current climate.

Mancunians may not be familiar with the more obscure Montevideo climate, but the marked change is going to bring about massive issues.

Jean-Francois Bastin, lead author of the research paper, said: "History has repeatedly shown us that data and facts alone do not inspire humans to change their beliefs or act.

"The intangible nature of reporting on climate change fails to adequately convey the urgency of the issue - for example, it is hard to envision how 2C of warming, or changes in average temperature by 2100 might impact daily life.

"With this analysis from Crowther Lab scientists, we want to help people visualise the impact of climate change in their own city, within their lifetime."

The study envisages both summers and winters in Europe will get warmer by up to 3.5C and 4.7C respectively.

London set to match Barcelona's current climate by 2050

This equates to a city moving 1,000km (620 miles) south.

Covering 520 major cities, the study shows the 'optimistic' potential climate shifts if carbon emission targets are met, so the reality could be a lot worse.

For the 22 percent of cities with more extreme climates like Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, there is the risk they will experience unprecedented climate conditions never seen before, which will bring about huge challenges.


Professor Mike Lockwood, from the University of Reading, said the study was really useful in visualising climate change and warned of the infrastructure issues that could come with the shift.

"For example, bringing Barcelona's climate to London sounds like it could be a good thing - if you don't suffer from asthma or have a heart condition, that is - except London clay shrinks and is brittle if it gets too dry and then swells and expands when very wet.

"The greater swings in ground moisture expected in a warmer world would cause massive subsidence problems.

"As ever, there is destructive and unforeseen devil in the details of climate change."

Professor Gabi Hegerl, from the University of Edinburgh, added there could more extreme weather in the UK: "The study considers some aspects of extremes but doesn't capture individual events like unprecedented heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall or flooding.

"Also, sea level rise will add to the difficulties faced by many of these cities."

UK cities and places their climate could mirror by 2050, according to the study

  • London - Barcelona
  • Edinburgh - Paris
  • Glasgow - Cardiff
  • Cardiff - Montevideo
  • Leeds - Melbourne
  • Birmingham - Paris
  • Manchester - Montevideo
  • Belfast - Cardiff