That 97% Solution, Again

Source:  National Post (Canada)

by Larry Solomon






The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth ? out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists and astronomers. That left the 10,257 scientists in disciplines like geology, oceanography, paleontology, and geochemistry that were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided that scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer ? those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor ? about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn?t even have a master?s diploma.

To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn?t consider the quickie survey worthy of response ?just 3146, or 30.7%, answered the two questions on the survey:



The questions were actually non-questions. From my discussions with literally hundreds of skeptical scientists over the past few years, I know of none who claims that the planet hasn?t warmed since the 1700s, and almost none who think that humans haven?t contributed in some way to the recent warming ? quite apart from carbon dioxide emissions, few would doubt that the creation of cities and the clearing of forests for agricultural lands have affected the climate. When pressed for a figure, global warming skeptics might say that human are responsible for 10% or 15% of the warming; some skeptics place the upper bound of man?s contribution at 35%. The skeptics only deny that humans played a dominant role in Earth?s warming.



In any case, the two researchers must have feared that an 82% figure would fall short of a convincing consensus ? almost one in five wasn?t blaming humans for global warming ? so they looked for subsets that would yield a higher percentage.  They found it ? almost ? in those whose recent published peer-reviewed research fell primarily in the climate change field. But the percentage still fell short of the researchers? ideal. So they made another cut, allowing only the research conducted by those earth scientists who identified themselves as climate scientists.


Lawrence Solomon is executive director of
Energy Probe and the author of The Deniers.