Mount St. Helens' Quiet Eruption

Correction Appended

The satellite trucks and news reporters have long gone. The crowds of tourists have thinned. No plumes of steam and ash have risen above Mount St. Helens for nine months.

Daniel Dzurisin, a volcanologist at the United States Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Wash., said that people often asked him when St. Helens would erupt again.

"When I tell them it's erupting today, they're surprised," Dr. Dzurisin said.

The mountain has a split personality. The cataclysmic eruption on May 18, 1980, blew off the top 1,300 feet of the mountain, flattened thousands of acres of forest and killed 57 people. The current eruption, now in its 15th month, is quiet, as volcanic eruptions go. It shows no signs of turning violent -- no explosions, no ash thrown into the sky.

There is not even lava. Instead, what is coming out of the ground is a tube of rock that, while still hot, solidified perhaps half a

mile underground and then was pushed upward. The process is somewhat like holding a toothpaste tube vertically and squeezing the toothpaste out.

Each second, about a cubic yard of new mountain -- roughly a pickup truck's worth -- is pushed to the surface, adding to a dome growing inside the crater.

In early months of the eruption, the cylinder of new rock, which is about 200 yards in diameter, toppled to the side as it rose. Now, the new rock is buried beneath earlier material and just pushes up the entire hill.

"It's looking pretty impressive," said Jon Major, a hydrologist at the observatory. "There's quite a pile of rock and rubble."

For the scientists at the volcano observatory, the past year has been an unexpected bonanza, one that is giving them new insight into Mount St. Helens, the youngest and most active of the volcanoes in the Cascades Mountains, and perhaps into the 60 other volcanoes on the United States mainland that have erupted in the past 10,000 years and are thus presumed to have the potential to erupt again.

Among the volcanoes in the Cascade Mountains, the long-term average is two eruptions a century.

"That doesn't sound like a lot," John Ewert, a Geological Survey scientist who was involved in assessing the risk posed by volcanic eruptions. "But when you consider the size of the volcanoes and consider most of them are covered with snow and ice, it becomes a much more significant number."

An eruption can melt the snow and ice, setting off avalanches and gargantuan flows of debris rolling down the side of the mountain. But for now, the Geological Survey has few instruments keeping watch over them.

At Mount Shasta in Northern California, there are two seismometers within 10 miles of the volcano and another four within 20 miles. "And that's about it," Mr. Ewert said.

Satellite monitoring might be able to give earlier warning of volcanic activity. For example, satellites were able to detect a swelling of the South Sister volcano in central Oregon in 2001.

Swarms of small earthquakes -- usually the first sign of a reawakening volcano -- did not start until three years later.

However, the technique does not work flawlessly; it did not work at Mount St. Helens, for example.

Many of the scientists now observing Mount St. Helens were there when it erupted in 1980 and continued to observe the mountain as a series of 16 smaller eruptions, some lasting only a few days, continued through 1986. Then the mountain fell quiet, and the scientists did not expect another eruption in their lifetimes.

Last September, a swarm of small earthquakes started shaking the volcano. The first eruption of ash and steam rose upward a couple of weeks later, followed by a flood of reporters who crammed news conferences, asking if another blast like the one of 1980 was imminent.

Mount St. Helens tossed up a few more small clouds of steam and ash. The reporters went elsewhere.

The work at Mount St. Helens in the 1980's had been under a pall of death and devastation; this time, scientists have a rare, close-up view with relatively little danger. "On the scale of volcanic eruptions, this is a pipsqueak," said John Pallister, a geologist at the volcano observatory.

Gases like carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide -- the ingredients that make volcanoes explosively deadly -- are largely missing this time. "It's become an incredible scientific experiment," Dr. Pallister said. "It's just a great place to be working right now."

Past eruptions of Mount St. Helens have varied widely. Sometimes it has gone up violently, like in 1980. Other times, the lava flowed out as hot liquid, similar to eruptions at Kilauea in Hawaii.

New magma from deep inside the earth tends to be full of volcanic gases, so the lack of volcanic gases suggests that the volcano is just emptying out molten rock leftover from the 1980's, like soda that has lost its fizz. The chemical composition of the rock is highly similar to rock from the 1980's, offering more support for that hypothesis.

The question is why magma that has been quietly sitting underground for nearly two decades would start erupting again now.

The scientists say that new magma may have risen from the mantle, pushing the old magma upward. Perhaps heavy rains in August last year percolated downward, hit the hot rocks under the volcano and changed into steam that weakened and broke apart the rocks, allowing lava to rise again.

"That could have been the straw that broke the camel's back," Dr. Major said. "We don't know for sure."



The composition of the new magma could help tell what might happen next.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Dr. Pallister found the first direct signs of new magma -- a small blob of glass embedded within the erupted rock.

The glass is presumably new, hot magma that cooled quickly when it came into contact with the older, cooler magma. "Perhaps there's something different going on," Dr. Pallister said. But so far, at least, "it's not a major contribution," he said.

The mix of minerals in the rock can also help tell whether the magma is rising quickly or slowly. As the eruption continues, so do the earthquakes that announced the reawakening of Mount St. Helens, about one a minute, more than a million in the past 14 months.

The earthquakes are shallow, occurring within a few hundred yards of the surface, and small, magnitude 0.5 to 1.5. "They're so regular, we've been calling them drumbeats," Dr. Dzurisin said.

One time, Dr. Dzurisin said, he stood still for an hour trying to sense them himself. While about half of them are too small to notice, he said: "In an hour, I felt 23 earthquakes. It's not a violent shaking. It's a very subtle thing. You know something is moving, something is going on."

Some of the quakes are accompanied by a booming noise, he said.

The sides of the rock rising out of the ground have deep scratches, which make geologists think that the rock gets stuck in the conduit, and then, as pressure builds up below, slides upward and sets off a small earthquake.

"The geology is staring us in the face," said Seth Moran, a seismologist at the Cascades Volcano Observatory. At other volcanoes, scientists have argued that similar shakings have been caused by gases vibrating in cracks in the earth, almost like an organ pipe.

"There's probably some combination of the two in play," Dr. Moran said.

Another mystery at Mount St. Helens is that of the disappearing glacier. After the earlier series of eruptions ending in 1986, a glacier started growing inside the crater, reaching a volume of 120 million cubic meters. The new volcanic dome split the glacier in half and may have melted about one-fifth to one-quarter of the ice and snow.

But the amount of water flowing out of the crater is the same as before.

"There's no perceptible increase in the outflow," said Dr. Major, the hydrologist. The water could be percolating downward into the groundwater -- "the mountain acting as a big sponge," he said -- and flowing out of springs outside the crater.

Scientists are not ready to predict what Mount St. Helens, or any volcano, will do next. The current eruption at Mount St. Helens, which has already calmed somewhat compared with a year ago, may slow further and stop. Or it may continue at the current pace for decades.

Or it may do something else.

"In some ways," said Kenneth McGee, another volcano observatory scientist, who has been keeping close watch on the gases coming out of the volcano, "predicting the end of an eruption is more difficult than predicting the beginning."

Correction: December 6, 2005, Tuesday An illustration and a caption with an article in Science Times last Tuesday about the continuing quiet eruption at Mount St. Helens in Washington misidentified a tectonic plate involved in the volcanic activity. The mountain sits above the boundary of the Juan de Fuca plate and the North American plate, not the Pacific and North American plates. (The collision of the two plates sets the volcanic activity in motion.)