AI research group DeepMind created the new tech that is able to spot key signs of eye disease just as well as the world’s top doctors. Buzz60


The old story is that mechanization of labor only replaces uneducated workers. A person can avoid obsolescence by going to a higher level of education — bachelor’s degree, master’s degree or doctorate. But as it turns out, artificial intelligence (AI), which is a kind of mechanization, is poised to take over precisely the kind of educated, cognitive, white-collar work that we thought was irreplaceable.

Producing written content, coming to medical diagnoses and grading essays are the kinds of things we thought computers could never do but at which they are already succeeding.

Moore’s law famously says that the number of transistors that can fit in an integrated circuit doubles about every two years. It is a measure of the growth of computational power. Moore’s law has slowed down a bit recently — Intel estimates that is it more like 2.5 years now — but the concept still stands.

It is difficult to comprehend what computation’s exponential growth means for society. The impossible often becomes possible in the near future. But certain kinds of impossible are easier for AI to achieve than others.

AI can do any cognitive work that involves routine decision-making. According to Julia Kirby and Thomas H. Davenport in the Harvard Business Review, white-collar jobs that are “too thoroughly composed of work that can be codified into standard steps and of decisions based on cleanly formatted data” are the ones that “will simply succumb to the rise of the robots.”

A saving grace is that computers have trouble with physical and non-routine things. Computers dominate at chess, but they are inferior at navigating the environment.

Doctors, lawyers, insurance workers and accountants will be at more risk than wood floor installers, cement workers and “grease monkeys.” Of course, not all white-collar jobs will disappear, but if 5-30 percent of the tasks are lost to AI, it will still be a crunch.

Under the dictum of “keep your friends close but your enemies even closer,” many AI-secure job areas actually occur close to mechanization technology.

Advanced manufacturing incorporates science and technology developments. Robots might have replaced line workers, but you can still oversee the robots. Any time there is vibration and wear-and-tear on a mechanical system, it will need human intervention.

According to the Department of Workforce Development, in 2017, manufacturing accounted for more than 18 percent of our gross domestic product, so there is opportunity here. Regional technical colleges like LTC and NWTC offer training in advanced manufacturing.

Likewise, computer coding, accessible to anyone through coding bootcamps, is an avenue for career-changers and those who want to diversify their future opportunities.

In the future, software will take over core functions within health care, stock-picking, asset management, selecting and purchasing, legal work, writing, payroll and benefits, and processing insurance claims.

The new knowledge worker will interface between algorithm and customer. They will need a bubbly personality and the ability to feed data into the computer. AI will cause knowledge work to feel more like service work.

Out of what used to be 100 professionals, there will be three professionals, 27 paraprofessionals and 70 “input stylists” who will translate real-world mushiness into clean data for the machine.


In this winner-take-all system, the top three will earn more than before, the next 27 will earn slightly less and the remaining 70 will earn far less. Average pay will remain the same, but median and mode pay will be lower.

Meanwhile, workers in the trades will continue enjoying a solid income. Some trades workers will also enjoy a personal autonomy that won’t be as available to knowledge-work “input stylists” but which contributes greatly to happiness at work.

Robots for advanced manufacturing can be expensive. Real wages, or wages adjusted for inflation, have stagnated since about 1973. If this trend continues, I jokingly wonder when things will come back around, with labor being cheaper than machines. “It’s like robots, but with people!”

Community columnist Nissa Enos is a Manitowoc resident.

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