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Mark Adomanis Contributor

I specialize in Russian economics and demographics. full bio →

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Russia's Population Decline in Regional Perspective

I understand that I’m a bit more optimistic than most about Russia’s demographic trajectory and that quite a lot of people are convinced it’s on the precipice of demographic doom. But rather than get caught up in another fight about what might or might not happen to Russia’s population in the future, what I thought would be interesting would be to show what has already happened over the past twenty years on a relative basis. Why relative? Because Russia is so much more populous than most other countries in Eastern Europe, it’s very easy to get caught up in the headline figures: population changes in a country with a 140+ million people are always going to sound a lot more exciting and interesting than population changes in a small country like Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.

So, without further delay, here is what has happened to the populations of Eastern Europe since the final collapse of communism:

As you can see, Russia hardly stands out for being a uniquely poor performer. In fact Russia’s performance is…well, it’s sort of average.  Russia’s 2011 population was about 5% smaller than it’s 1991 population, worse than Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, almost exactly the same as Hungary and substantially better than new European Union members such as my ancestral homeland of Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

While some (though certainly not all) of the population losses in Estonia and Latvia can be attributed to the emigration of ethnic Russians, no such explanation is possible for Bulgaria, Romania, or Lithuania (which unlike the other Baltics never had a sizable ethnic Russian population). Those countries have, quite simply, suffered population losses that, in relative terms, are far more severe than those of the “dying bear.”

What does this all mean? Well, I think it shows that, contrary to the common media narrative, Russia is actually one of the more demographically stable countries in Eastern Europe. Given recent improvements in Russian demographic trends, it’s far more likely than not that Russia is going to experience modest population growth for 3-5 years before resuming a slow, steady decline. Meanwhile, thanks largely to the economic shock of 2008-09, population decline is actually accelerating in most of Eastern Europe, as many people head to the old EU countries in search of more promising opportunities. I think that the graph also demonstrates that the causes of demographic decline are regional in nature and cannot be easily ameliorated through the West’s preferred method of liberal economic and political reform. If democratization were actually the answer to the demographic crisis, why has Russia performed so much better than so many countries that are substantially more democratic?

Please note that I am not trying to argue that Russia’s demographic future is a rosy one: the country really is going to face some wrenching and difficult changes to its pension system as its working-age population shrinks. The sorts of liberalizing labor market reforms that are going to be necessary are never popular, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the Russian authorities will be able to implement them successfully. But Russia’s demographic challenges, while serious, are probably going to be much less severe than those facing other countries in Eastern Europe since those countries have already suffered population declines that are proportionally much larger than Russia’s.

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  • ivan ivanov ivan ivanov 1 year ago

    The official Rosstat figures for 1991 and 2011 population of Russia are 148.1 and 143.1 respectively which means 5mln and 3.37% loss. This year, due to immigration, the total population is projected to reach about 143.3-143.4mln which would amount to 3.17% loss compared to the peak in 1991. Adomanis states in his article: “Russia’s 2011 population was about 5% smaller than it’s 1991 population”. Please understand that 5mln is not the same as 5%. It may be OK for the star and stripes saluting Empire of fat morons but it is a false statement everywhere else. 5% instead of 3.37% constitutes 48.37% error.

  • moe stiven moe stiven 1 year ago

    this is what you get if you open your borders with richer economies. Thats the reason why russia is so much better now they have no open borders with uk or germany. Russian youths stay in russia. Also note that czech reblublic and slovak republic have huge immigration.

  • sublimedurak sublimedurak 1 year ago

    I had a similar article to this half a year ago, Was Russia In A Demographic Apocalypse In The First Place?

    Indeed Russia is not quite an average performer, it’s a somewhat above average performer by regional standards. It’s easier to list the countries that did better than did worse (Poland, Czechs, Slovakia).

    Incidentally, I read the other day that Japan’s population declined by 200,000 this year. That is a real demographic crisis as fertility there has been very low for the past 30 years and it has far, far more elderly people as a share of the population than does Russia.

  • ivan ivanov ivan ivanov 1 year ago

    Japan’s population decline of 200k is the same percentage wise (0.16%) as the average decline in Russia over the last 20 years.
    The main difference here is that Japan is overpopulated and, being an island,
    it is not under military or illegal immigrants border crossing threat as is Russia.
    Additionally, its robotics industry will compensate for labor shortages better than most countries.
    I think it is net positive that Japan is reducing its population to increase available resources and living space.
    It will only result in increse of living standards.

  • Yet only one of these countries is a waning world power who’s leaders and publicists see their country’s prestige and status as such depending on growing population. Any even mildly reasonable government, such as those in the EU, are placing very little value on size, because ultimately the quality of life for residents won’t be determined by it. If it was, then I guess sub-Saharan Africa is just about the best place in earth to live.

    Despite improvement during Putin years in some measurements, such as in those which Adomanis is often publicizing about, Russia’s human development has remained low by regional standards. In 2011 only Ukraine had a lower HDI than Russia.

  • ivan ivanov ivan ivanov 1 year ago

    HDI is a Western propaganda tool, I would pay no attention to it. Just look at how Adomanis distorted figures in the charts to this article, he also ignored my correction that Russian population has decreased by 5mln not by 5%. For them, everythig goes, because the American journalists lie anyway all the time. I lived for years in US and Russia and the latter is a vastly superior place to live. It has a lot more freedom, it has better medical system, better nature, better culture and education. people are happier and better off. US bachelor’s degree correcponds to Russian 9th grade and US Ph.D. in math is like Russian University’s 3rd year undergraduate research project. I know because I hold Ph.D.s from both countries, in different areas.

  • mickflynn mickflynn 1 year ago

    Hey Ivan, you don’t represent your people in a very good light. Your government slaughtered millions of jews and is still as repressive as ever. Putin is a buffoon and the reason why your population is decreasing is because your all drunks and have one of the lowest life expectancies in the developed world.

  • markc markc 1 year ago

    Heyyyyy….are you La Russophobe? I always thought her legs were awfully hairy.

    Bravo for demonstrating that you can recite stereotypical talking points with the best of them.

  • Victor Lar Victor Lar 4 months ago

    @ivan “US Ph.D. in math is like Russian University’s 3rd year undergraduate research project” – I guess you are trying to tell a joke. I have a bachelor degree in math from Russia and PhD in math from an American university and its no way they are close. At most I can say that maybe a bachelor degree from Moscow university is equivalent to a math master degree in some average university in the US.

  • Absar Ahmad Absar Ahmad 1 year ago

    Well it is a serious problem for Russia and it needs to address it before it’s too late. The decline in population or negative population trend is not good for the future of Russia (if it wants to continue it’s superpower status).

  • mickflynn mickflynn 1 year ago

    Its a superpower in its own imagination. Russia is a demographic disaster plane and simple. Its people are simpletons who live under a dictator and tow the semi-communistic rule of Putin. And by the way, the next time Putin feels the need to go on national tv without his shirt on or kill a tiger for local consumption, the rest of the world looks at him as a buffoon.

  • Although your concept is sound, this is a very poorly argued point. I’m writing a college essay that is more to-the-point and well spoken on this topic and I’ve researched this for less than two hours. I hope you are a free-lancer and not hired onto Forbes’ writing team.

  • Mark Adomanis Mark Adomanis, Contributor 1 year ago

    Hi Kaden,

    I wish you luck in your publishing career

  • Bubba Bubba 7 months ago

    I’m hoping to one day in the near future to read the newly published Rise & Fall of the White People.