Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Scope of the Carbon Problem


1.3 billion people in the world still have no electricity.

Another 1 billion lack reliable access.


At least 2.7 billion people lack access to 
modern fuels for cooking and heating.






Then future carbon emissions will be, relative to today's emissions



r = future emissions relative to today's

Today (from EIA data for 2009):

Population(OECD) = 1.225 billion
Population(non-OECD) = 5.536 billion

OECD emissions = 12.0 Bt CO2
World emission = 29.0 Bt CO2




F=1 =>     e = 94%



F doubled from today =>     e = 91%

Which is still very difficult to see happening.


And until then, we better get busy on adaptation.



Anonymous said...

Uhh...lol. Carbon isn't a pollutant because...we are made of carbon. We better ban oxygen, too because at certain levels oxygen is toxic!

Geoengineering won't work. We can't control the weather, and we can't control climate, either.

Also, can you tell me the difference between "mad-made" Co2 and natural emittors of Co2? Should we put corks in volcanoes? What about dead plants?

Carbon isn't a problem. But this popular delusion is.

David Appell said...

Anon: manmade vs natural CO2 can be distinguished by its carbon isotopes:

There are many compounds that are present in the human body but are also pollutants in other contexts, such as arsenic, selenium, zinc, and many more. So your extremely simplistic argument fails (obviously). It's like saying because there is carbon in both your body and in gasoline, it's OK to dump gasoline in drinking water.