Snake eyes: Vipers sense heat with thermal sniffer
Charles Thacker wins Turing Award, computing's 'Nobel prize'

Study: Link found between hurricanes in Atlantic & Pacific Oceans

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

With hurricane season fast approaching -- the Atlantic season starts June 1 –- the first predictions for the season's ferocity have begun to roll in. Last week, private forecasting firm AccuWeather predicted that 16 to 18 tropical storms and hurricanes would form in the Atlantic hurricane basin, of which seven will make landfall on U.S. shores.

A typical year sees about 11 storms in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

The most well-known seasonal hurricane forecasting outfits are at Colorado State University and the federal government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), both of which will issue their forecasts later this spring.

When making these predictions, forecasters take into account large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño/La Niña as well as current and projected measurements of sea-surface temperatures, sea-level pressures, and vertical wind shear.

A new study released recently by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) could aid hurricane forecasters in future years. The research, led by Chunzai Wang of NOAA and Sang-Ki Lee of the University of Miami, looks at a possible connection between hurricane activity in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane basins. It appears in the AGU publication EOS.

Based on data that goes back to the late 1940s, the researchers found that when tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin increases, tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin decreases, and vice versa.

"This implies that the seasonal hurricane outlook may be improved by considering the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific together," the authors wrote in the paper. Thus, if the signals appear favorable for a weak year in one basin, then it follows that the other basin should have a more active season.

Hurricanes in the Pacific basin seldom affect the USA, but occasionally hit or graze the west coast of Mexico.

The scientists found that a combination of a La Niña year, a warm year in the tropical North Atlantic, and a warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation greatly increases the probability of an active hurricane season in the Atlantic and an inactive season in the eastern Pacific.

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is a pattern of alternating hurricane activity that varies on timescales of 30-80 years, and is either in a cool or warm phase.

"Similarly, a combination of an El Niño year," the authors write, "a cold year in the tropical North Atlantic, and a cool phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation will greatly increase the probability of an inactive hurricane season in the North Atlantic and an active season in the eastern North Pacific."

This year, according to AccuWeather, the reasons for an active Atlantic season are the rapidly weakening El Niño, warmer ocean temperatures, weakening trade winds and higher humidity levels.

By Doyle Rice

Snake eyes: Vipers sense heat with thermal sniffer
Charles Thacker wins Turing Award, computing's 'Nobel prize'