Resultsman’s Blog

Copenhagen- Observations

Copenhagen- Observations

Maybe I was naïve, for having expectations of a defining agreement coming out of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. Maybe I was not realistic. Warning signals we evident back in November. Let’s try to put this process that the nations of the world are engaged in into perspective. In looking over the history of previous climate change treaties and negotiations, I realize that the non-binding agreement that was reached was a more realistic outcome for a process that takes time to conclude. The Kyoto Protocol, a success or failure, depending if you are a class half full or glass half empty person was not arrived at without multiple conferences and countless negotiating sessions. It took time to reach.
Copenhagen was billed by the press as a decisive opportunity for 105 heads of nations and countless business leaders to come together to address the issue of climate change; the defining issue of our age…. Maybe, I was unrealistic in expecting that the conference would deliver a legally binding international deal to tackle climate change.
The four letter word, “time”, is the crux for concern. If current projections are unchecked, by 2030 China will be emitting 60% more CO2 than the US. This comes in spite of having per-capita emissions of 6 T/person vs. those of 20T/ person in the US. Action is required, because time appears to be running out. It is not my intent to start a debate over the relative merits of the scientific claims behind predictions for global warming in spite of a personal belief as a scientist that they are real and the warnings we are receiving should be heeded. The consequences for lack of action could be quite severe.
Let’s explore what we the people of the world got and what was not delivered by the conference.
Causes for Concern-
(1) There is no long term target for a 50% reduction in the amount green house gases by 2050. I chose a target based on my readings. There might be a more appropriate target. If so, fine. Go with it!
(2) There is no time scale for turning the deal which was forged into a legally binding international treaty.
(3) There is no system to tax or penalize nations whose emissions of CO2 grow over time. (In retrospect, I was a bit simplistic in my hopes that the EU’s cap and trade model would be adopted. I neglected to consider its short comings a model that is peppered with offsets and bribes. Some are saying that the Cap and Trade model is analogous to the mid-evil practice of paying for forgiveness of sins by purchasing indulgences.) Perhaps a rising carbon fee model should be adopted.

Reasons to be Pleased-
(1) A non-binding accord calling on Nations to deliver their own, non-verifiable voluntary targets was reached.
(2) 17 nations emit 90% of the worlds CO2. These nations recognize the need for action. China, the US, India, Brazil and the EU are all engaged, participating in the joint communiqué.
(3) There is a consensus included provisions for the developed nations of the world will help to pay for technology transfers into the developing nations of the world ensuring CO2 emissions will be better controlled.

So, What Is Next?
My answer, carry on. Plant the seeds for the growth of the global treaty that we need. We, the general public of the world need to keep the pressure on the leaders of the world. Force the leaders to deliver the voluntary targets called for by the Copenhagen deal. Politicians will respond to the will of the public if our voice is strong and unified. Issues need to stay in the spotlight of international scrutiny. We can’t let the impetus leading into and coming from Copenhagen wither and die. Nations are engaged and each is negotiating to protect their own parochial interests. There is a process going on. Our job is to keep the pressure on the process to make certain that it is not abandoned. Stay informed. Remain active.
Show Strong Leadership and Persevere-
Sustainable business models are profitable. The truly innovative business leaders of the world have already adopted models that are templates to be emulated. This time of transition is filled with opportunities. This is a time to show strong, positive leadership. Don’t be reckless. Businesses and people have to be educated and informed to the point where they believe in the merits of a sustainable business model. They need leaders to encourage them to do this. Stay positive. As a nation and world we can (and will) work our way through this present situation.

Was I naïve? No! Do I have high expectations for the leaders of the world? Yes! Can we help to shape the future? Most assuredly!