March 17, 2011 - Aging of the world population; what it...


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Aging on the level of a population (shift in the age distribution that can actually be calculated with great confidence) 1. #2: Median age is another measure (in young populations median age is typically less than mean age) #3: Decreasing fertility and decreasing mortality increase all measures of population age #4: Expected age until death is an alternative (inverse) measure of age) The average age in a population usually increases more slowly than 1 year per year and can decrease; this is usual measure - There will be greater increase in aging Burden of nonworking individuals may go up Burden depends on costs of medical care for elderly vs. fewer educational costs Aging at the population level may have social and economic consequences (why should you care?) - Sanderson & Scherbov (Lutz group) proposed 'prospective' measures of life expectancy A. One of measures used was ' life expectancy ' what was standardized to year 2000. The prospective measure if in the future 40yr person had life expectancy of 90, it was roughly equivalent to 30 yr old who is expected to live about up to 80. The prospective life of 40-year old as that of now 30-year old of today. This means population age decrease as life expectancy gets extended/increased. - MA = Median age Prop. 60 + & Prop. RLE 15- are both expected to go up This means article assumes linear increase of life expectancy of 2 years per decade What article did not stress was that they assumed increase in life expectancy that occurred in developed world for 2-3 decades (2 years per decade in life expectancy) will occur indefinitely throughout the century Many 100~110 year-olds Doubted by professors and other reading 1/3 population will be over 60 years-old PARYL = population average remaining years of life (another measure of population) B. This can increase or decrease as population gets older chronologically - Measures individually how many years of life are left - Medical advances increase average chronological age (hence may decrease PARYL) OR decreasing death rates of old ages (increase PARYL) - Aging of the world population; what it means to you March-20-11 3:56 PM March 17, 2011 Page 1
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Average age projected is to increase 13.5 years by 2100 PARYL predicted to increase by 5.4 years by 2100 This groups becomes older Prop RLE 15- should stabilize around 15% Graph from Lutz article C. Not actual measure itself Shows increase in rate of increase of measures of aging Due to baby-boom, measures of population aging are increasing fast; they never to "negative" Europe and most of Asia will to have 1/3 population over 60-year-old by mid-century 2. What sort of life will you live when you reach old age? People live to certain age and die without change
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