Millionaires in forex


No. 1: George Soros Vs. The British Pound

In 1992 British pound exchange rate versus other European currencies was fixed by the bank of England. In order to maintain that value, the bank set their interest rate at a high level, similar to the one offered by Germany. However Germany's high interest rates were appropriate for a robust economy in need for a cool down to prevent a spike in inflation. Britain was in the opposite situation, with its economy in the doldrums. A Hungarian immigrant spotted this situation, decided that it was unsustainable and sold short 10 billion pounds. He made 1.1 billion US dollars. His name is George Soros.

No. 2: Stanley Druckenmiller bets on the Mark - Twice




No. 3: Andy Krieger Vs. The Kiwi


Using the relatively new techniques afforded by options, Krieger took up a short position against the kiwi worth hundreds of millions. In fact, his sell orders were said to exceed the money supply of New Zealand. The kiwi dropped sharply as the selling pressure combined with the lack of currency in circulation. It yo-yoed between a 3% and 5% loss while Krieger made millions for his employers.


Year 2010

Situations like the one described before are not a black swan of the past. The press is filled with stories of currencies overvalued being restored to fair value; in the recent European crisis forex players brought the value of the Euro down when it was overvalued (from 1.3654 on April 14 2010 to 1.1925 on June 8, 2010, - 12.7% and back up again when it was oversold (from 1.1925 on June 8, 2010 to 1.3276 on August 6, 2010, + 11.3%). Central bank intervention to reach a desired value have not disappeared either, as the recent actions of the central bank of Japan and the central bank of China show.

In Sum

Predicting a fall or an increase is not a question of luck only, disciplines and strategies based on technical analysis help to understand short term fluctuations of a currency, while fair value measures, such as the Big Mac Index, help to spot currencies that are away from their underlying value and that will converge to that price in the long run.

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