Decision Analysis for Climate Change - ALC3196 - Resources

Pre-course Preparation

Update individual learning on basic climate change processes and impacts, particularly as related to the team project topic areas. Moodle and Adobe Connect tutorials. Develop basic understanding of structured decision making and its application in natural resource management. Download and read the National Research Council 2009 report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate.

Week 1: Framing Management Decisions in the Context of Climate Change

During the first week we will discuss and learn how climate change may shift the scale and scope of management decisions. Teams consider the decision context for their case study inclusive of climate change and other underlying change processes.

Week 2: Identify and Clarify Objectives

Do our existing management objectives still make sense in light of climate change? Teams refine key concerns and objectives for their case study in light of climate change.


Week 3: Develop Alternatives

What are the alternatives for achieving our objectives under a new system regime? Teams create targeted alternatives to address climate change related impacts in their decision context.

Week 4: Assessment of Consequences

What are the consequences of each alternative? Teams determine which method to use to predict the impacts of their alternatives against their objectives. What assumptions do the models require and does the use of historical data present any challenges?

Week 5: Addressing Uncertainty

Is the uncertainty relevant to the decision? Teams diagnose and address key uncertainties related to climate change and other sources in assessing performance of alternatives toward achieving objectives.

Week 6: Confronting Tradeoffs

Risk attitudes, robust solutions or optimization techniques? Teams select appropriate tools which acknowledge climate change related risk and uncertainty and reflect values of the decision maker(s) to distinguish between options and make a choice.

Week 7: Adaptive Resource Management: Monitoring, Learning, Updating

How do we track the changing system? Characterize uncertainties and their role and the decision? Teams discuss suitability of iterative learning to reduce key uncertainties.

Week 8: Final Team Presentations

Teams present their decision problem to the rest of the class. Discuss next steps and resources available to continue learning about climate change.

2012 Example Team Reports