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A new map by Rutgers University researchers plots the extensive damage rising seas could cause to coastal neighborhoods in New Jersey, unnerving residents whose homes could lie under water in the future. The statewide sea-level projections come on the heels of superstorm Sandy, which swept through the region last October and exposed the coastline’s vulnerabilities.


Metropolis: Where do we stand now?


Metropolis: What does “looking into the future” mean?


Metropolis: Sandy was historic and unprecedented. When a disaster is that rare, is it hard to really get enthusiastic about planning given that it just happened?

Associated Press
Debris from three houses is pictured in December 2012 on a street corner in Raritan Bay in Union Beach N.J.

The real bummer, the real blow, the real bad consequence will be the RIMS model: rapid ice-melt scenario. That’s where we’re heading. Two feet of sea level increase by the mid-2040s, four feet by the 80s and five feet by the end of this century.

If you superimpose even the new FEMA flood zones over that model, we start seeing what we today call “100-year storms” or “100-year floods” every two years. How can New Jersey be habitable, or how can you run a world-capital city like New York in those conditions of constant inundation? You can’t.

Metropolis: There’s all this talk of wetlands, new dunes, oyster beds. They’ll absorb the water.

All nice talk. And good things. Not really helpful. Those are what some call “soft structures.” They affect wave action but not sea level. Wave action is dangerous, as we saw during Sandy in Staten Island and the Rockaways. But sea level is worse.

Metropolis: What about barriers?

At a certain point, we have to let the Hudson and all the other rivers out. But when we do that we let the ocean in. With rising sea levels, we either get flooded from the front or the rear.

Metropolis: Will people be living in Battery Park in 2050?

Not on the first few floors. Those will be community centers, spaces like that where people don’t need to be all the time.

Metropolis: What about townhouses in the Village that are only three or four stories tall to begin with?

They’ll need a waterproof basement and first floor. That’s a lot of money, and not always possible. Or they’ll have to be raised. That’s what I’m doing with my house.

Metropolis: Razed?

No, raised. When I bought my house in Piermont, N.Y., in 2003, I could only raise it 3 inches above the FEMA flood zone recommendations, because then I started to violate rules on how tall a building could be. Now with the new zones, I’m raising my house 5 feet above the old zones, which are 3 feet above the new ones.

Metropolis: That’s a lot of work: planning, logistics, labor. Isn’t there a city we can just copy?

Every city will need its own master plan. London, Venice, Nairobi, all different. Even in this country, what works in Miami wouldn’t work here. New York will have to lead its own path. There are two roles: mitigation, which is a global mission, and adaptation, which is a local one.

Metropolis: So what do we need? What’s your wishlist?

We have to reexamine short-term goals. What do they contribute or not contribute to long-term sustainability? There will always be people who say that’s too long, we can’t predict it. But infrastructure in particular has a long life. Whatever we decide now will be with us for decades, hopefully not haunting us. We need to serve our purposes that doesn’t risk the lives of future generations.

Metropolis: What do you think will happen?

I think we will not work with the water as much as we should. Americans have an attitude of: Take that, Mother Nature!