interval estimation

interval estimation, in statistics, the evaluation of a parameter—for example, the mean (average)—of a population by computing an interval, or range of values, within which the parameter is most likely to be located. Intervals are commonly chosen such that the parameter falls within with a 95 or 99 percent probability, called the confidence coefficient. Hence, the intervals are called confidence intervals; the end points of such an interval are called upper and lower confidence limits.

The interval containing a population parameter is established by calculating that statistic from values measured on a random sample taken from the population and by applying the knowledge (derived from probability theory) of the fidelity with which the properties of a sample represent those of the entire population.

The probability tells what percentage of the time the assignment of the interval will be correct but not what the chances are that it is true for any given sample. Of the intervals computed from many samples, a certain percentage will contain the true value of the parameter being sought.