If you plot the complexity of a given technology — tools, cars, silicon chips — on a graph, the line usually looks like a hockey stick: Slow to begin with, and then exponential growth for a long, long time as the technology matures. If you plot the actual usefulness or power of that same technology, though, it looks more like a bell curve: After a certain point, there are diminishing returns on further maturation. Nowhere is this more obvious than in computing in general, and game console graphics in specific. While the PS4 and Xbox One boast hardware specs that are much more powerful than their predecessors, the actual difference in visual quality between the PS3 and PS4 or Xbox 360 and Xbox One will be minimal. The hard truth is, given the current state of TV technology, and the distance we sit from the TV, there will be serious diminishing returns from both consoles’ massive increase in graphics processing power. We would be much wiser to focus on other attributes that aren’t yet affected by the diminishing returns of faster chips, such as AI and art direction, but we’ll soon see if developers and publishers feel the same way.

Cast yourself back to 1990. Nintendo had just released the SNES and the state of the art for computer graphics was probably Super Mario World, with up to 128 on-screen sprites and four background layers. Just six or seven years later, thanks to the advent of DirectX, the N64, the PlayStation, and the founding of 3DFX, we’re playing fully 3D games such as Quake, Super Mario 64Final Fantasy 7, and GoldenEye. Just a few years later in 2001, millions of people were blowing each other up in fast-paced 3D games such as Halo, and exploring beautiful 3D worlds in PC games like Mafia.

Super Mario World (left), Mafia (middle), Crysis 3 (right)

Super Mario World (left), Mafia (middle), Crysis 3 (right). There’s a gap of 11 years between each game.

In just 11 years, we saw an explosion in graphics quality that took us to the zenith of the bell curve. The years since have seen some beautiful games, don’t get me wrong, but it has definitely been a case of diminishing returns. Crysis 3 is much prettier than Battlefield 1942, but it’s not even in the same league as the jump from Super Mario World to Mafia.

This drastic case of diminishing returns is caused by numerous factors. The most simple explanation is that, visually, there is a much bigger difference when you jump from 500 to 5,000 polygons per object, rather than 5,000 to 50,000. At 500 polygons, you get an object/person/face that is clearly the object it purports to be — it has branches, limbs, etc. — but very little detail. At 5,000 polygons, you can create a believable face with twitching muscles, a tree with leaves and lichen. At 50,000 polys, all you really gain is extraneous detail — more hair, a few more muscle groups, fancier clothing, and other embellishments like that. For some specific games, the shift from thousands of polygons per scene to millions might allow for innovative and interesting gameplay, but it’s mostly just eye candy.

The diminishing return of increasing graphics processing power on game consoles

Secondly, there’s only so much detail that you can resolve when you’re sitting six feet away from a 1920×1080 HDTV. As we’ve covered before at some length, there is very little to be gained from higher display resolutions unless you’re sitting very close. The same goes for more graphical processing power: Lara Croft’s TressFX hair might look amazing on your desktop PC, but it makes very little difference when you’re reclining on a couch. There could be an argument for the increased graphics quality on large, 4K and 8K displays — but as neither the PS4 or Xbox One will support 4K output, it’s a moot point.

It’s time to focus on non-graphical features

Hopefully, then, developers and publishers of Xbox One and PS4 games will focus on other important features, such as better AI, level design, and putting more time and effort into art direction and storytelling. Both consoles, with their beefy GPUs and 8-core CPUs, should be capable of rendering large numbers of on-screen intelligent, hard-to-defeat computer-controlled enemies. Level design obviously continues to improve as a matter of course. Art direction and storytelling are worlds apart from low-level graphics engine optimizations, and require a large shift and lots of new hires for most games houses, but it’s clear from blockbuster games like The Last Of Us and Bioshock: Infinite that this shift is well underway. The new consoles also have significant chops when it comes to audio playback. I don’t know exactly what an aural extravaganza would be like, but I’d be very interested to find out.

The Last Of Us: Storytelling trumps graphics quality

The Last Of Us: Storytelling trumps graphics quality

It’s too early to tell, but hopefully these trends towards deeper, richer experiences on the Xbox 360 and PS4 will continue with the Xbox One and PS4. Early reports suggest that games on the PS4 and Xbox One will look virtually identical, and that developers aren’t pushing hard to leverage the PS4’s extra graphics processing power. We’ll see whether polygon counts and fill rates have finally taken a backseat by the time the Xbox One and PS4 release dates roll around in November, though.
