Decisions can have big consequences

on February 14, 2010 at 2:00 PM
Mark_Schnurman.jpgCAREER COACH: Mark Schnurman
Better safe than sorry, the old adage goes. Sorry means you learned a hard lesson. Two weeks ago, my best friend Bugsy, a 3½-year-old Boxer, became lethargic and was vomiting. My gut told me to take him to the vet, but I chose a wait-and-see approach instead.

The next day, I was horrified to discover he had swallowed an unknown amount of ibuprofen. I immediately rushed him to the emergency animal hospital, but because of my delay, Bugsy now suffers from kidney failure. In my search to understand why I acted the way I did, I decided to tackle the subject of decision making.

In business we are confronted with decisions every day. Some have no significant impact; others may be critical to your career, department or even organization. For most decisions, we possess enough information and experience to render them effective. In contrast, I want to focus on those binary decisions, to act or not to act, that, surrounded by uncertainty, can have big consequences. Some examples include whether to close a school during a snow storm or a doctor running an extra diagnostic test.

Classic decision-making theory weighs the probability of an event occurring with the magnitude of the outcome. Let’s look at the case of Toyota, a company that recently stopped selling many of its models because of safety issues. Toyota decided the risk of selling cars with safety problems was a bigger risk than ceasing sales. When weighing the probability/risk for different alternatives, the one with the highest expected value is selected, at least when we think rationally.

Each of us falls somewhere on the continuum between being overly cautious to excessively careless. So how should you make these difficult decisions?

Ensure you are the one who is responsible for making the decisions. After Ronald Reagan was shot, Secretary of State Alexander Haig famously said, "I’m in charge." He was not. Making a decision that you are not authorized to make is not a good career move.

Plan ahead. In the midst of a situation, fraught with emotions and confusion, you may not think clearly. If possible, weigh out the different circumstances and conditions ahead of time. This will help you stay composed and think lucidly when you need to make a real decision.

Acquire data. Actively get as much information as you can prior to making a decision. Get raw data, analysis, probabilities, etc. The more information you have, the better informed your decision will be.

Socialize the issue. Bringing others into the decision-making process — or at least making them aware — does two things: First, it can help you identify more factors and make a better decision. Second, by letting others — including your manager — know about the decision helps protect you if it turns out to be wrong.

Go with your gut. More times than not, when faced with difficult choices you will not have all the facts, but will have to act anyway. Devoid of essentials, you must fill in the blanks based on experience, probability and circumstances. But perhaps the most important tool you possess is your gut. Generally, go with your gut, because it subconsciously weighed all the options and is giving you its conclusion.

Make a decision. Don’t get paralyzed by indecision. You can gather data and discuss it with others, but at some point a decision needs to be made. Set a time line and make a decision. Not making a decision is still a decision.

All of our decisions are informed afterward from hindsight. Life is lived forward with uncertainty, but history is read with the clarity of knowledge. Retrospection will identify both false positives and clear signals that were missed.

That is what happens when you make a decision without all the relevant facts. Regret and sadness are a difficult medicine. In both your personal and professional life, err on the side of caution.

Mark Schnurman may be reached at or on the web at