Opinion Sunday Points

Sunday Points

Frank Newport: Religion in America is not dying


Books about the new atheism may suggest religion is dying in America. But it isn’t, reports Frank Newport, author of The Future of Religion in America: God Is Alive and Well. Newport, who grew up in Fort Worth and graduated from Baylor University, is Gallup’s editor in chief. Points spoke to the public opinion analyst about religious trends.

As Christians observe Easter, I’m wondering how much they should be worrying about their congregations. As a Presbyterian, it makes me nervous when you write: “Remember that the percentage of Americans who identify as Christians has gone down in recent decades as the percentage of those who don’t have a formal religious affiliation has increased.”

America remains predominantly Christian, but less so than in previous decades. The big change is not that Americans are increasingly identifying with non-Christian religions. They are not. But an increasing percentage of Americans don’t have a formal religious identity.

This percentage with no formal religious identity (the “nones”) has gone from about 2 percent in the 1950s to 18 percent today. This “rise of the nones” largely has come from the ranks of Protestant Christians. The percentage of Catholics has remained fairly constant over the decades — mainly because Catholics have benefited from an influx of Spanish-speakers. There has been no comparable influx of Protestant immigrants.

What do you mean when you write: “Basically, Protestants have done everything wrong over the decades in terms of their growth.”

There are several ways religious groups and denominations can grow. These include an influx of new members from immigration, through conversion, having lots of babies, and avoiding outflow of members through leaving and death.

Protestants have not benefited from a recent big wave of Protestant immigrants, they have not been exceptional in terms of conversion, they have not had babies at any unusual rate, and they have not stemmed the usual outflow of those raised in their religion that leave.

Mormons have been more exceptional on these fronts. They have not enjoyed a wave of immigrants, but they have been very active in conversion attempts, and they have a theology which underscores the value of having lots of babies.

You say we are not becoming less religious. Rather, the big shift is how we express our religiosity. How will those shifts impact religion?

The biggest shift has been the increase in the “nones.” Yet the real meaning of this shift is not totally clear.

It may be that in the 1950s, when almost everyone had a religion, there were strong norms to give a religious identity no matter how religious you were. Now, it is normatively much easier for a person who doesn’t attend religious services to simply tell an interviewer “none” when asked his or her religion.

In other words, no change underneath, but a big change in reporting. And research shows a healthy percentage of “nones” have some kind of spirituality or religion.

Their rise exemplifies another major trend: the move toward unbranded religion. Considerable growth has come among nondenominational churches which pay little attention to official denominational standards or creeds, but focus on marketing to the consumer base around them.

Americans today are simply less likely to like a lot of formal, or hierarchical, structures and are more free-form and casual in what they do. Religion is being affected similarly. I would expect to see this trend continue.

I was skeptical at first of your chapter about religious Americans being healthier than those who are not religious. You presented interesting data, though, to back up that point. Still, this makes me squeamish. This point could turn into a new prosperity gospel, implying that if you are godly you will be healthy.

There is a good deal of data in this area, but the issue of causality you bring up is important. Ample evidence shows people who are high on measures of religiosity are also high on measures of well-being, happiness and a variety of other positive measures. We know that correlation is no proof of causation, however.

There are numerous reasons why being religious could be correlated with well-being, including the hypothesis that people who are happier choose to be religious. Or that people who are depressed are not motivated to get up and participate in religious activities.

Still, our analysis shows that the correlation holds even after we statistically control for many other factors, and some recent research that followed people over time does suggest that becoming religious can lead to more positive emotions. So it’s not illegitimate to suggest that becoming religious, particularly joining a religious group or community, could increase your well-being.

You also have found that Americans are more religious the older they get, which seems intuitive. With baby boomers entering their later years, will boomers become a new growth industry for religious institutions?

That’s a very important question. Baby boomers, of which I am one, are the huge group of Americans born between 1946 and 1964. Over the next 20 years, this group will dominate the important 65-plus age demographic.

As you note, that age group has been, for as long as we have measures, the most religious group across the age spectrum.

Two things can happen to boomers as we age: We can defy historical patterns and remain no more religious than we are now, even as we move through our 60s, 70s and 80s. Or we can follow historical patterns and become more religious as we age.

If the latter occurs, we will have a significant uptick in religiosity because there are so many boomers. It’s more likely than not that boomers will become more religious as they age — maybe not in the traditional ways we are used to, but seeking spirituality and the other benefits religion offers.

The old saying goes that there are no atheists in foxholes. Maybe we should transmute that to, “There are no atheists in retirement homes.”

This Q&A was conducted and condensed by Dallas Morning News editorial columnist William McKenzie. His email address is wmckenzie@dallasnews.com. Frank Newport can be reached at godisalivebook@gmail.com.

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