Has the U.S. Passed Peak Gasoline?

Gasoline consumption continues to fall despite an economic recovery, thanks to more fuel-efficient engines and less driving

Michael Kappel/Flickr




"Given that the maxima in the fuel-consumption rates occurred several years prior to the onset of the current economic downturn, these maxima have a good chance of being permanent peaks," said Michael Sivak, a research professor at UMTRI and author of the report.



According to Sivak, the steeper drop in fuel consumption over the corresponding decrease in distance driven -- 13 to 17 percent versus 5 to 9 percent -- reflects an improvement in vehicle fuel efficiency.

'Rebound effect' didn't happen

"Efficiency is being driven in part by policy. It's not happening by accident; it's happening partly because of economics and partly because of design," Lovaas said. "This is affirmation of the importance of those drivers."

But policy isn't the only factor at play, he admitted.


"It seems to turn the conventional wisdom about a rebound effect on its head. People say you increase efficiency and you'll necessarily get a big increase in energy use, and there are various assessments of how big that rebound effect is. But we're seeing increased efficiency and reduced driving," Lovaas said. "Basically, efficiency and reduced driving are in the ring with oil dependence, and they've struck a double blow against it."


"The trade-off is [reduced oil consumption] exacerbates the problems of the transport program that's dependent on ever more driving and fuel consumption," he said. "It turns out it intensifies the need to find a new solution for our transportation funding problem."


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