Can China go green?

A new 'eco-city' near Shanghai may help us find out.

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said last week during his visit to Europe that his government seeks to build "an environmentally friendly society" - and he seems to mean it. But can it be delivered? By 2020, half of China's population will be living in urban areas, and domestic water and sewage needs will be double or more those of 2000. Urban pollution is already beyond tolerable limits in most Chinese cities and towns.

No wonder then that the plan to build a model "eco-city" near Shanghai is being looked at with such interest: London's mayor Ken Livingstone has claimed that "global warming was created in the West, but it is increasingly to the East to which we look for a solution." And the Royal Institute of British Architects (Riba) has just held a China fortnight with a special exhibition on "going green in China".

Dongtan is to be built on Chongming island in the Yangtze river delta, over an area three-quarters of the size of Manhattan island - 86 square kilometres. It has been commissioned by the Shanghai Industrial Investment Corporation (SIIC) and is designed by the global consultancy Arup which boasts of its green credentials. It will be largely powered by renewable energy, and will consist of village neighbourhoods linked by public transport: polluting vehicles will not be allowed in the city. It will incorporate local agriculture and generate new clean industry to provide jobs for a target population of 80,000. It will also act as a buffer zone between the rest of the island and the Dongtan wetlands which are a migration route for rare birds including the hooded and red-crowned cranes.

By 2010, says Consultant Herbert Girardet, "Dongtan will be a compelling model for how to build sustainable cities worldwide that may well be too persuasive to ignore."

Is Dongtan really a metropolitan utopia for the future or are we being diverted by at best a lot of well-meaning hype? Anyone who knows something about the political dynamics of Chinese development is likely to ask some critical questions.

1. Chongming Island, mainly rural now, is about to explode with development, linked by a new six-lane tunnel-cum-bridge expressway from Shanghai. Dongtan itself will occupy only eight per cent of the island area and contain ten per cent of the population. Will the rest of the island follow its green model or will Dongtan choke on their emissions?

2. The SIIC is a commercial outfit, not a government department: will it be willing to maintain Dongtan's green credentials if and when these begin to conflict with profits?

3. Dongtan is supposed to have 30 per cent affordable housing for migrants from the city: assuming this actually happens, it will still be predominantly a home for the rising middle class. Will they consent to a green lifestyle - or just park their 4x4s outside the precinct gate? And who will enforce the regulations?

4. Dongtan is a greenfield site on low-value agricultural and waste land. How credible is that as a model for most urban development which, even in China, does not usually start with a blank sheet of paper?

On the credit side - (and in Arup's presentation last week at a seminar organised at the RIBA by the "Edge" group of radical architects) - are the following arguments:

1. The Chinese government, and Shanghai especially, are committed to green development and know that environmental pollution is becoming their biggest challenge.

2. Just as China's current modernisation drive began with the Special Economic Zones of the 1980s and '90s, so Dongtan could herald a new phase of Special Economic Environmental Zones.

3. China historically has had great respect for the environment: the Dongtan approach is already beginning to resonate elsewhere.

4. Finally, says Arup, "we know it won't be perfect", but it is better to try now and tackle the difficulties along the way.

I visited Dongtan nearly four years ago when it was a five-hour journey from Shanghai, by bus, ferry and taxi (we were seeking a glimpse of the migrating cranes). It will take just 40 minutes when the bridge is completed. A local taxi driver urged me to invest in land there - and would have helped me set up the deal. If only I had agreed! Can the enterpreneurial "get-rich-first" ethos of Chinese modernisation co-exist successfully with green objectives? I don't know the answer, but Dongtan will help us find out.

See further the September issue of Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, devoted entirely to exploring China's environmental challenges and potential solutions, with all of the articles written by Chinese scientists, and available online.