Quake early warning system proposed

The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in January 1994 killed more than 60 people and caused an estimated $25 billion in damage.
The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in January 1994 killed more than 60 people and caused an estimated $25 billion in damage. US Department of Transportation


The question is: Will the public get a bit of warning that seismic waves are on the way?

The answer might be yes. State Sen. Alex Padilla has filed a bill that seeks to create a statewide public earthquake early warning system that would provide from a few seconds to a full minute of notice that people should brace for an earthquake. The alert isn’t a prediction; no one can predict quakes. The warnings would report on energy that’s already moving through the earth.


The warning system would cost about $80 million and would try to replicate the success Japan has had in warning the public that seismic energy is about to hit. Millions of people received cellphone messages that shaking was imminent when a devastating 9.0 quake struck hit in March 2011.

The new California proposal calls for upgrading and expanding the state’s seismic reporting network, which is composed of about 1,000 seismometers situated in such far flung spots as San Diego and Berkeley. The California Institute of Technology and its partners have built an early warning system into the network. At this point, it’s experimental and sends warnings to fewer than 100 people. But scientists are confident that they can create an alert system that could help do such things as slow high speed trains before shaking starts, and send elevators to the nearest floor to unload passengers. Warnings could also be sent to people’s cellphones and tablet computers.

“This kind of system is not a fantasy. It is a tool for living in ‘Earthquake Country,’ ‘‘ said Tom Heaton, a Caltech seismologist who has been exploring warning systems since the late 1970s.



Sen. Padilla says, “I’m not trying to downplay anything, but the state budget is in better shape than it was a couple of years ago. Going to the general fund is a last resort. We might be able to put together federal and state partnerships, and there are grants available. I don’t see this as an insurmountable problem.”


