Age structure

As identified in the forecasts prepared for Australia, there are significant age structure implications in these updated forecasts.

The decrease in overseas migration is the factor that impacts Australia’s population future in the most significant way.

Given the age structure of overseas migrants is dominated by the “fertile” age groups, the loss of overseas migrants, will not impact on the fertility rate but will result in fewer births, and will significantly impact on the forecast age structure.

This will most significantly impact children, teenagers and young adults, with negligible impact on the older age groups 50 years and over.

The chart below represents the difference of each age group from the “Base Case” (Pre COVID) in NSW and Victoria. These are the two states most affected by the significant decrease in net overseas migration.

Population in NSW and Victoria by Age, 2031

Post-covid forecasts vs baseline