The second American century




This notion of a second American century may seem bizarre, given the country's obvious domestic troubles — from poor schools and crumbling infrastructure to mounting debt and low economic growth — and its external challenges, including terrorism, a rising China, an antagonistic North Korea that has nuclear weapons and an equally hostile Iran that appears to want them.


The United States is and will remain for some time first among unequals. This country boasts the world's largest economy; its annual GDP of almost $16 trillion is nearly one-fourth of global output. Compare this figure with $7 trillion for China and $6 trillion for Japan. Per capita GDP in the United States is close to $50,000, somewhere between six and nine times that of China.

The United States also has the world's most capable armed forces. No other country comes close to competing with it on the modern battlefield.

There is no peer economic competitor on the horizon. Chinese growth is slowing. Japan is saddled with a large debt. Russia will continue to be held back by its politics.

Additionally, the world's most powerful countries might not always agree with the United States but they do not normally see America as implacably hostile or as an impediment to their core objectives. Challenges from the likes of Iran, North Korea and al-Qaida, while significant, are neither global nor existential.



The alternative to a U.S.-led 21st century is not an era dominated by China or anyone else but rather a chaotic time in which regional and global problems overwhelm the world's collective will and ability to meet them.



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