Can elections ease the royal grip on Morocco?

The Moroccan elite pins its hopes on evolution, not revolution. But progress is about economic equality, not just democracy
A Moroccan woman holds a sign in support of the opposition February 20 movement
A Moroccan woman holds a sign in support of the opposition February 20 movement. Photograph: Chafik Arich/AFP/Getty Images

Although elections were not due to be held in Morocco until September 2012, they were brought forward to Friday in response to widespread protests earlier this year demanding democratic reforms. King Mohammed set up a commission led by his former teacher, Abdellatif Mennouni, to draft a new constitution, which was then approved by a referendum on 1 July. This resulted in the following changes:

1. The king must name a prime minister from the largest political party in parliament.

2. A number of rights have passed from the monarch to the prime minister, including dissolution of parliament.

3. Parliament can grant amnesty to prisoners (previously a prerogative of the king).

4. Women will be guaranteed "civic and social" equality with men. In the past, only "political" equality was guaranteed.

5. Berber becomes an official language alongside Arabic.

These changes were approved by 98.49% of Moroccans who voted. However, many believe the changes are not sufficient – the king, for example, retains total control of Morocco's security and foreign policy, as well as religion – and they have continued to protest.

The Moroccan election comes just a month after Tunisia's free election and is seen as a test of the king's commitment to move the country closer to democracy. In the past 50 years, Moroccan parliamentary elections have generally been regarded as window-dressing for the king's western allies. The royal grip on power was helped by high illiteracy rates (including some members of parliament) and the interior ministry's mixture of repression and divide-and-rule tactics to tame political dissent.

This week's election is different to some extent. King Mohammed has promised in recent speeches that it will be fair and transparent. However, he remains the most powerful figure in the country and the election is being fought by the ruling elite, linked to the monarch, which sees evolution not revolution as the best response to uprisings elsewhere in the region.

If the Tunisian experience is repeated in Morocco – which is quite possible – the opposition Islamist Justice and Development party (PJD) will win 70 to 80 seats in the 395-member parliament, making it the largest party.

The PJD's main opponent is the newly formed Alliance for Democracy. It promises to break with the cosy politics of the past, but the PJD says it is the establishment in a new guise. It is a group of parties founded by king's friends and the finance minister is one of its leaders.

The PJD – like Tunisia's al-Nahda party – appeals to Morocco's vast numbers of poor voters by focusing on economic and social issues, illiteracy and minimum wages. Its members of parliament are also known for being the most active in a parliament that has traditionally been known for its high rates of absenteeism.

Opponents of the PJD are focusing mainly on new constitutional and other reforms initiated by the king but there are also nationwide protests by the youth-led opposition February 20 movement calling for a boycott of this election. A high abstention rate would be a nightmare for the establishment.

However, the most important reforms that Moroccans demand are economic reforms, which the king has not yet considered – and the country's wealth remains largely in the hands of the royal family and those linked to the palace.