Monthly Archives: October 2009

Are You Overconfident?

A key problem in creating robust estimates is over-confidence.

Do you experience this problem? Try and give 80% accurate range for answers to the following questions, i.e. a maximum and minimum value for each.

Questions (give a range for each with a maximum and minimum value)

  1. Diameter of the moon, in kilometers (Min, Max)
  2. Year of the Battle of Waterloo (Min, Max)
  3. Population of Switzerland (Min, Max)
  4. Height of Mount Everest above sea level, in feet (Min, Max)
  5. Age of Albert Einstein when he died (Min, Max)

Ok, you should now have written down your responses. If you do not write down your answers, you won’t be able to assess their accuracy below.

Answers (scroll down)











  1. 3,476km
  2. 1815
  3. 7,593,500
  4. 29,029 ft
  5. 76

How many of the answers fell within the range you gave? It should be at least 4, otherwise you are exhibiting overconfidence.

If you got less than 4 within your range, don’t worry. Over-confidence is common, but do bear it in mind with future estimates.

Faster Decision Making

How long does it take your organization to make a decision? What’s the lag between something breaking and the decision to fix it? Sometimes a good, but slow decision is worse than an imperfect, but slow one. Especially when you consider the number of people involved in making decisions in most organizations and the cost of their time.

Are their layers you can take out of your decision making process to speed things up? Can you push decisions further down your organization to make it more responsive?

“Making good decisions is a crucial skill at every level.” Peter Drucker

Are Performance Reviews Counter-Productive?

Provocative article on performance reviews. If you hire only smart people won’t ‘forced curve’ grading invariably demoralize some of them? If people are underperforming, why do you need a performance review to tell them that? Shouldn’t managers be giving feedback regularly anyway? Anyway, the full article is here. Recommended.

Swine Flu Vaccines and Project Management




The reasons for the delay are as follows:



Apparently, not



US patients with flu-like symptoms

 Image source (Center for Disease Control Site)



Free Project Management Book Giveaway!

I have 3 hot-off-the-press hardback copies of my upcoming book ‘Strategic Project Portfolio Management’ to giveaway to celebrate the official launch on November 2. The book retails for $45. 

To enter, email the name and address you want your copy of the book shipped to to with the title ‘Book Competition’. You’ll receive an email confirming your entry and will only be contacted again if you win.

All entries must be received by November 2, and 3 winning entries will be selected at random from all entrants received by that date. Limit of one entry per household please.



Get Ready For The Firehose

Interesting that Twitter posts will soon be searchable on Google and Bing (details here). I like that the article covering that development was titled drinking from the firehose.

With the web becoming more realtime, it also potentially becomes more distracting. For example, you could read blogs for the most recent information, or you could read Peter Drucker or Benjamin Graham for a timeless perspective on business and investing respectively. I would argue that focusing on the important rather than the recent is far more effective. Yet tools increasingly drive us towards what is new, rather than what is good.


Careers in Project Management

A few useful recent resources for those thinking about a career in project management:

First off, if a career in project management represents a change for you, there is a good discussion of career transitions here from James Copper. Not specific to project management but broadly applicable.

Interesting blog post on starting a career in project management here from Josh Nakivel that discusses the importance of experience and the pros and cons of different qualifications.

Here, Erika Flora mentions several ideas around creating buzz and volunteer oppotunities in the context of a job search.

Here John Reiling discusses the value of the network for project managers.

If you are studying for your PMP (Project Management Professional) Certification, there are some good online resources here.

Innovation – Rocking Chair Powers Light

Following on from the bra as gas mask example, another interesting and award winning innovation. This one a rocking chair using the motion of the rocking chair to power a light winning a green design competition. The full details are at Design Boom.

Murakami Chair

PCubed Coverage of Upcoming Book (Idea Submission)

Thanks to PCubed for their in depth article on my upcoming book, focusing particularly on the idea submission stage of the portfolio process.

You can order the book here on Amazon.

If you are interested in useful books on project management and related topics, I have compiled a list on Amazon here.

Driving Continual Improvement

