Lessons from past disasters go unheeded

Earthquakes are inevitable, but death in an earthquake is not. Ground tremors do not kill: collapsing buildings do the killing.

Earthquake engineers and seismologists reacted in anger yesterday after the second powerful earthquake in a fortnight brought death to thousands, and grief and despair to tens of thousands more.

People died in El Salvador on January 13 and Gujarat on January 26 because modern buildings - even modern hospitals - fell flat, one floor pancaking on to another as reinforced concrete slabs collapsed like a house of cards.

They died because walls that should have been tied to floors fell outwards, removing all structural support, and bringing the roof down. They died because tall buildings swayed in resonance and shook themselves to bits as the ground danced beneath them.

People died because they lived on or near unstable hillsides; they died because gas pipes burst, and petrol stations caught fire, because water supplies failed and sewage flooded their basements; they died because communications collapsed and the roads were blocked with rubble and help could not get there in time.

They died, the disaster experts say, because it is one thing for national governments to know about earth quake hazard and building safety codes, but another thing for local authorities to enforce them or developers to stick to them.

Thousands died because no one remembers the lessons of past earthquakes.

Ravi Sinha, a civil engineer from Bombay who is preparing to go to Gujarat, said: "We are beginning to relearn the same lessons that were reiterated following the El Salvador event: the governments are not prepared. They directly or indirectly contribute to an increase in death by permitting poor construction quality. It is sickening to see the cycle repeat again and again."

Cinna Lomnitz, a professor of seismology at a university in Mexico City, witnessed that city's terrible earthquake in 1985 and is now heading to examine the damage in San Salvador. He says it is often possible to draw parallels between tragedies.

"Ahmedabad is a city that grew very fast, like Mexico City. The news pictures suggest that Ahmedabad was a second Mexico City; a number of tall buildings collapsed in resonance."

He says engineers are capable of designing buildings to withstand even the most severe earthquake. "Definitely our aim should not and cannot be any less than zero casualties."

Ben Wisner, a researcher at Oberlin College, Ohio, and a member of the International Geographical Union's group on hazards and risks, is campaigning for a worldwide push for safety standards. He is familiar with the architecture in Ahmedabad, and says that it differs little from that in other nearby cities.

"On the one hand, there is an ageing building stock and lack of maintenance. On the other, some new structures may well have been built without proper adherence to codes and not properly inspected," he says. "It is unlikely the percentage of buildings that are earthquake-resistant is any higher in Ahmedabad or Bhuj than it is in Delhi."

In El Salvador on January 13, the country lost 40% of its hospital capacity. In Gujarat, medical facilities also collapsed.

"Authorities know how to protect hospitals," Mr Wisner said. "There is no reason why the civil hospital in Bhuj needed to collapse on patients and staff."

There are around 50,000 detectable earthquakes a year, most of them no more than little rumbles; on average, there are 18 earthquakes of magnitude seven or more every year.

Since January 1 2001, there have been five such tremors: Three - in the Pacific Islands of Vanuatu, near Kodiak Island in Alaska, and on Mindanao in the Philippines - caused little damage; there were few humans around to be hurt. But experts are still counting the dead in the rubble of El Salvador and throughout Gujarat.