Aviation's first-ever carbon standards won't do much to slow global warming

The exhaust gases of a plane form a contrail which is illuminated by the setting sun in the sky over Hanover, Germany, on Jan. 14, 2014.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images

The world got one step closer to closing one of the biggest remaining climate regulatory loopholes on Monday, when a U.N. panel proposed the first-ever greenhouse gas emissions measures for commercial aircraft.

The targets, however, are nowhere near what's needed to actually curb global warming from an industry that contributes about 2% of world emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, and is growing rapidly.

Globally, the number of both passengers and flights are expected to double by 2030, as air travel demand skyrockets in much of Asia and parts of Africa. 

The panel, known as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), rolled out proposed rules that would require new aircraft designs to meet the emissions standards starting in 2020. These rules had been discussed for more than a decade. 

Aircraft designs already in production, including the wildly popular Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 series — which together comprise the majority of global aircraft orders — would have to comply with the rules by 2023. 

The rules were crafted in part by the aviation industry, and would impose a cutoff date of 2028 for the manufacture of planes that do not meet emissions standards.

The rules, which still have to be formally adopted by an ICAO committee, would be the first ever to impose binding energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction targets for the aviation sector. 

New aircraft already meet the new standards

Environmentalists criticized the new rules, saying the newest aircraft designs already meet the new standards, since airlines are putting pressure on manufacturers to make their planes as efficient as possible to lower fuel consumption and associated expenses.

The adoption of winglets, use of carbon composites in aircraft components, and the rollout of more direct flight routes are all part of industry initiatives to increase fuel efficiency with costs as the driving factor — not climate change.

Airplanes manufactured today, such as this Boeing 787 seen landing at Heathrow Airport on Jan. 4, could still be in service 25 to 30 years from now.

Aircraft manufactured today, such as this Boeing 787 seen landing at Heathrow Airport on Jan. 4, may still in service 25 to 30 years from now.

Image: Steve Parsons/PA Wire

Vera Pardee, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the new ICAO standards would not stem the growth in aviation sector emissions in part because they exempt aircraft that are currently in production. Aircraft typically have a service life of up to 30 years, so planes built now and for the next several years could still be in service in 2035.

The center has pointed out that if commercial aviation were considered a country, it would rank seventh, after Germany, in terms of its carbon emissions.

“These standards set the bar embarrassingly low."

Emissions from commercial airliners could triple by 2050, thereby generating at least 43 billion tons of planet-warming pollution, according to a recent report.

“These disturbingly weak recommendations put the Obama administration under enormous pressure to fight airplane pollution’s threat to our climate,” Pardee said in a statement. “The EPA has a legal and moral obligation to address the aviation industry’s skyrocketing carbon pollution. If we don’t cut airplanes’ fast-growing emissions, it will be much more difficult for the world to avoid catastrophic warming.”

“These standards set the bar embarrassingly low, ensuring that almost all aircraft will already meet the requirements well before they go into effect in 2023,” said Sarah Burt, Earthjustice’s legal expert on aircraft pollution. “The aviation industry is sandbagging, which seriously hinders our efforts to meet the commitments we made in Paris.”

Last June, the Obama administration proposed regulating aircraft emissions, saying they are a threat to human health because they contain pollutants that help cause global warming, but it deferred such action to the ICAO.

"I am pleased that ICAO reached an international consensus on a meaningful standard to foster reduction in CO2 emissions from aircraft," said FAA administrator Michael Huerta in a statement.

The standards would require an average 4% reduction in fuel consumption during the cruise phase of flight starting in 2028 when compared with planes delivered in 2015.

However, the cruise phase is already the most efficient part of commercial flight, with more fuel burned during takeoff and landing.

The FAA is working with airlines to roll out a system of satellite-based navigation that would allow for more continuous ascents and descents into increasingly crowded airports, which would save airlines fuel and reduce emissions. However, the system has been slow to be implemented.

Like taking 140 million cars off the road for a year

The ICAO rules would reduce carbon emissions by more than 650 million tons between 2020 and 2040, which is the equivalent of removing more than 140 million cars from the road for a year, according to the White House. 

Advances in winglet technology, as seen on this Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-800, have made today's aircraft far more fuel efficient.

Image: Ted S. Warren/AP

A White House fact sheet states that commercial aircraft emit 11% of carbon emissions from the transportation sector, and is expected to grow by nearly 50% as aviation expands dramatically in rapidly growing areas of Asia and Africa. 

The administration pushed for the ICAO rules as a companion piece to the Paris Climate Agreement struck in November, which did not cover aviation or marine shipping. 

The Obama administration is also advocating for a program to ensure that the aviation industry grows in a carbon neutral manner after 2020. Such a path could avoid several gigatons of carbon emissions through 2035, the White House said, and would require new rules in addition to the proposal laid out on Monday. 

However, climate studies have shown that steep cuts in carbon emissions, rather than a leveling off of emissions growth, is needed to prevent dangerous amounts of global warming and resulting impacts, such as potentially catastrophic amounts of sea level rise.