When, where, and what type of severe weather could Michigan have soon?

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on July 09, 2013 at 10:58 PM, updated July 09, 2013 at 11:14 PM
severe-update-overnight.jpgView full sizeThe Storm Prediction Center has updated the severe weather chance overnight and lowered the chances dramatically. 

Updated at 10:45 p.m. for lower severe weather chance:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new severe weather outlook for overnight. Although some areas of Michigan could actually use the rain, the good news is the chance of severe weather has been lowered significantly.

The chance of severe weather still exists, but has been lowered to five percent in most of Michigan. What this usually means is that severe storms can still happen, but will be isolated and not widespread.

So still be careful overnight if you are going to be outside, or camping. The radar loop below is continually updated. I've left the severe weather graphics from earlier. You can see the big change in placement of the severe wind chances.

severe-wind-chance-july-9-2013.jpgView full sizeThis graphic shows the chance of severe wind gusts during the period from 8 a.m. Tuesday to 8 a.m. Wednesday. Much of Lower Michigan has a 15 percent chance of severe winds.  

Michigan does have a chance of severe weather during the next 24 hours. The storms will probably hold off until overnight tonight or early Wednesday morning. That is why the first graphic shows Michigan on the eastern edge of the severe wind area. The graphic is for a time frame from 8 a.m. today to 8 a.m. Wednesday.

The chance of severe wind gusts has also been lowered by the Storm Prediction Center. Yesterday they were forecasting a 30 percent chance of severe winds during the same time period. There are factors that point to severe weather. But the arrival of the storms after midnight and toward sunrise usually means the storms are weakening. Storms typically weaken overnight as they lose the energy from the heat of the day.

Above is a radar loop that is always updated. So you can come back to this article and monitor the storm development. The storms in Iowa this morning may arrive a little earlier than overnight, if they hold together.

tornado-chance-tuesday.jpgView full sizeThere is a two percent chance of tornadoes overnight tonight and early Wednesday morning. That is not a big chance, but is the typical chance when Michigan has an isolated tornado or two. 

Isolated tornadoes possible

The second graphic shows the chance of a tornado. The largest threat for tornadoes is just to the west of Michigan this afternoon. Lower Michigan has a two percent chance of a tornado. The time frame for tornadoes would come with the main batch of severe storms late tonight and early Wednesday. Again, this is a time when storms typically weaken. So the chance of severe weather is definitely there for us here in Michigan, but lower than areas just to our west.

hail-chance-july-9-2013.jpgView full sizeThe chance of severe hail is placed at 15 percent for much of Lower Michigan. Severe hail is defined as hail three-quarters of an inch or larger. 

Park good car in garage overnight

Hail is also a possibility with the overnight storms. So if you have a nice car, park it in the garage overnight if you can.

The chance of severe hail is ranked as 15 percent tonight by the Storm Prediction Center. That means that within 25 miles of any given point, there is a 15 percent chance of hail that is three-quarters of an inch or larger.

What area could be hit hardest?

Based on what I'm seeing, the strongest storms could hit the southwest corner of the state. A few of the computer models I look at show the severe storms hitting southwest Michigan overnight, and then weakening as the storms move east Wednesday morning.

Once the severe weather gets going, if it does, check back for updated information. If you have any weather questions, ask them below. I'll check back occasionally today.
