Wednesday, May 5, 2010


Watching the news this week seems more like an apocalyptic movie directed by Emmerich called “The oil well that destroyed the world”. The 130 mile long oil slick continues to expand with 210,000 gallons of oil being added every day from the still broken underwater well creating incomprehensible disaster in the waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Florida Loop Current that sweeps around the Gulf will soon connect with the spreading oil and pull it south along Florida's Gulf coast and then out into the Florida Straits between the United States and Cuba. From there, the oil slick will spread from Miami Beach to North Carolina's barrier islands and continue north along the East coast beaches. The slick may ultimately cross the Atlantic and wash up on UK and European beaches.

In 2009, 80 million tourists visited Florida, 30% of them solely to enjoy the 1200 miles of white sand beaches.
Florida’s visitor rate has surged by over 30 million since 1999 with over half of the arrivals by air. Tourist spending in Florida increased from $47 billion to $65 billion between 1999 and 2008 providing $4 billion in state sales tax revenue and over a million tourist jobs in 2008.

The increase in beach seeking tourists to Florida may be due to the
rising crime and murder rates in Mexico and the islands in the Caribbean. With armed robbers targeting cruise ship visitors in the Bahamas, sexual assaults and murders of tourists in Trinidad and Tobago, gang related murders in Bermuda, and Jamaica described as the most violent country in the Western hemisphere, it is not surprising that most of the Caribbean islands have seen a decrease in their visitors over the past couple of years mostly due to the challenge of convincing tourists that they are safe.

The H1N1 virus outbreak combined with increased violence that prompted the US to issue a Travel Alert has resulted in a
sharp decline in tourists willing to venture to beaches in Mexico. Websites citing Mexico Vacation Victims and murder rates at favorite tropical vacation destinations have driven record numbers to the safer beaches of Florida.

An oil slick covering Florida’s white sand beaches would mean US and international beach lovers would be forced, yet again, to find alternate clean and safe places to go for their summer vacation. The 41 million tourists that arrived in Florida by airplane in 2009 dwarfs the
6.5 million visitors that came to Hawaii. If only 15% of those beach-loving, air-arrivals to Florida change their vacation plans to Hawaiian beaches, it would double our State’s annual visitors. By mid June, we think Hawaii will have an unprecedented surge in tourists from the US East Coast, Canada, and Europe. Hawaii will become the oil slick free tropical destination to the 20 million tourists that planned to fly to Florida this summer because of its unparalleled white sand beaches, exceptional hotels and shopping, and extremely low murder rate. (Hawaii’s murder rate is 1.6 per 100,000 people as compared to the overall US rate of 5.7, Puerto Rico’s rate of 18.8, Mexico ‘s rate of 25, and Jamaica’s rate of 49 per 100,000 in 2006.)

Florida’s US visitor profile is different than Hawaii with their top origins by air coming from New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia. The majority of Hawaii visitors by air from the US are from the West coast and Mountain regions. Foreign visitors to Florida in 2008 came from Canada (2.9M), UK (1.4M), Germany (295K), Australia (70K), and Japan (55K). International visitors to Hawaii came primarily from Japan(1.1M) and Canada (340K). Tourists looking for an alternative to their Florida holidays, will be first time visitors to Hawaii, surprised and delighted with the beauty and novelty of the destination. Disasters displace people, as did Hurricane Katrina which resulted in over 200,000 residents leaving New Orleans. Many may move to Hawaii to flee from their oil encroached retirement and vacation homes along the eastern and gulf coasts of America.

For those of us living in Hawaii, a massive increase in visitors will be a blessing and a curse. The additional tax revenues will help our State budget problems and there will be more jobs. But the sudden surge in tourists will challenge hotels, restaurants, and airlines. Airline seats will be hard to find as will uncrowded beaches. Prices may escalate to Manhattan levels and still not meet the demand. As the disaster unfolds it will quickly change the remote world we live in here in Hawaii.


Anonymous said...

As always, your posts are insightful and thought provoking. Part of me hopes your analysis is wrong, but, based on my own thoughts since the spill, I suspect your estimates of a potential surge in Hawaiian vacations is conservative. I hope impacts on the BI are minimal.

Anonymous said...

Wishfull thinking in my opinion...the kind of tourist that visits Florida will likely just go to San Diego because they want an exciting nightlife, amusement parks, bikini contests, cocaine, etc. Hawaii is just too boring for them. Plus lets not forget that it costs about 1/2 the price to get to Florida (even for Europeans) than it does to get to Hawaii. Just looking on southwest and orbitz, it's ~150/one way from La Guardia to Tampa and about $325/one way La Guardia to HNL for June 20th. Doesn't sound like much until you consider the price difference for a family of four. $2400 for Hawaii and $1200 for Florida. It's a recession, people are going to go to Florida even with the "scuzzy" beaches.

Anonymous said...

I think this is a huge case of overreaction on your part and basing a bunch of nonsense on those overreactions.. I can take my family to Florida for ~1500$, to get to Hawaii is a minimum or 3500$ that difference will compensate for any potential increase in tourists. also, everyone knows that all 41 million visitors to Florida go to the beaches, not a single one of them visits disney. I usually enjoy your posts but this one is just stupid

Anonymous said...

It costs around $5,000. for a family of 4 to visit Hawaii.
You can visit Miami or San Diego for half of that.
Hawaii will remain an expensive alternative for the people flush with money, not a substitute for other locations.