Seed distribution in East Africa
Fine tuning crop seed distribution based on expected seasonal rainfall

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Principle 4: Climate
This year Simon is aware that the Regional Drought Monitoring Center in Nairobi has just issued a seasonal forecast based on a consensus process with regional and international climate forecast centers. There is still some chance of the development of an El Nino event, which is influencing the forecasts to lean towards a higher chance of above-normal rainfall, or put another way, slightly lower probability of drought. The forecast is for 35% chance of above normal, 40% chance of normal, and 25% chance of below normal rainfall. He also knows that for a few years now, local farmers have been exposed to information about a seasonal rainfall forecast and are starting to listen to these and base planting decisions on them. This is likely to influence sales.