2000 BES Abstracts

Towards temporal and spatial modeling of the human ecosystem in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore, MD

Boumans R.M., R. Costanza, H. Voinov, A. Voinov, J Farley, F. Villa, M. Ceroni and T. Maxwell

Human values, more then in any other ecosystem, have a large impact on the spatial and temporal development of the urban landscape. Historical incentives for economic and social reasons have clustered groups to create the urban setting, while innovative methods of transportation diverted these clusters to create suburban landscapes. Due to incentives to create healthy ecosystems for humans to live, resources have been diverted for restoring and maintaining ecosystem functions.

We simulated the dynamics of human behavior and impact on global and regional ecosystems based upon evaluation of the historical context of landuse changes and population and social indicator dynamics observed for the globe and for Baltimore city. Equations for production based upon standard economic theory include next to capital and labor, services delivered from the ecosystem, social settings and human capital. The model simulates, next to goods and services, human welfare, food per capita ratios and expected disease ratios from increased stocks of environmental waste countered by an increase in human knowledge.

We continue our efforts to include the human dimension and evaluation of ecosystem services into the spatial modeling of the Gwynns Falls watershed.