Groundhog Day is it myth or truth?

Submitted by

Alma Copeland

For TEAM Resources

Groundhog Day is February 2. According to legend, the groundhog emerges from its burrow at noon on that day to look for its shadow. If it is a sunny day and the groundhog sees its shadow, it becomes frightened and returns to its hole to sleep, and winter continues for 6 more weeks. If it does not see its shadow, it remains outside because the worst of winter is over and warmer weather is on its way.

Origins of Groundhog Day

The origins lie in medieval Europe, where the day was known as Candlemas Day, a Christian festival named for the custom of lighting candles on that day. Europeans had a legend whereby hedgehogs predicted the beginning of spring by the state of the weather on Candlemas Day. When European settlers came to North America, they brought the February 2 legend with them. There being no hedgehogs, they transferred the predictive role to groundhogs.

Early settlers hoped for signs of an early spring so they could begin planting and shorten the time to harvest, especially with winter provisions dwindling. What settlers did not realize was that the groundhog sleeps later than the European hedgehog and is less likely to stir even on warm winter days. When February 2 arrives, the worst of winter's weather is usually over in western Europe, but not in Canada, where the openings to groundhog burrows are usually buried under deep layers of snow and ice.

There is some truth to the shadow aspect of the legend. Sunny days in winter are generally associated with colder, drier arctic air and cloudy days with milder air. Given the tendency for weather conditions to persist for several days before changing, the weather on any February 2 may continue for a few days, but not necessarily any longer.

The groundhog we look to in Canada is Wiarton Willie of Wiarton, Ontario, near Georgina Bay. The ?role? of Wiarton Willie has been played since 1956 by a succession of albino groundhogs reared in Wiarton. The most recent Willie died in 1999 at the age of 23 and has been replaced by Willie Jr.

How accurate is Groundhog Day?

Organizers of Groundhog Day maintain that the rodents' forecasts are accurate 75-90% of the time. However, meteorological records prove that the groundhogs' success rate is quite low. A study of weather data over the past 30 - 40 years for 13 cities across Canada reveals there were an equal number of cloudy and sunny days on February 2. During that period, the groundhogs' predictions were correct only 37% of the time. For nearly two-thirds of the years the groundhogs' forecasts turned out to be wrong: either they were contrary to what they should have been, or winter dragged on its normal duration.

No matter what anyone says, we will continue to look to Wiarton Willie for an end to winter!

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