Agricultural Development Economics


Climate change and security in africa: Vulnerability report
Madariaga, FAO
Publication date
Following the revision of the initial Vulnerability Discussion Paper in light of the first Dialogue Forum (Addis Ababa – 11th October, 2010), ACCES members maintain that Africa is the most vulnerable continent in terms of the capacity to adapt to the predicted effects of climate change. Though it is difficult to make exact assessments related to climate change issues, and while recognising that most African countries do and will suffer from the security implications of climate change, when aggregating the outcome of individual assessments Burundi, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Ethiopia, Niger, Nigeria, and Sudan were identified as the most vulnerable states in Africa in the context of climate change and security. The Sahel region is considered the most threatened region on the continent. Climate change will likely lead to substantial changes in precipitation patterns, including more frequent droughts, floods, and storms. The sub-tropical zones have become more arid, and desertification continues in the Sahara. The forecasted higher surface temperatures will increase evaporation rates, making water increasingly scarce and water security unstable, in turn strongly affecting human security and increasing the risk of water-related conflicts. The number of people in Africa experiencing water scarcity may increase by 75 million until 2020 and several hundred million by 2050.