Sunday, June 26, 2011

Comparing Two Bridges; One across San Francisco Bay, and one HSR to nowhere

Many others, besides us, have identified the new Bay Bridge, from Oakland to San Francisco, as a notorious example of what to expect with the construction of High-Speed Rail.

Here's the central point.  In education, there are two usually defined skills.  One is Mastery; that is, acquiring all the facts, information, and knowledge. The other skill is Transfer; that is, applying that information/knowledge within other contexts.  So, here we go.

First of all, cost overruns.  The original cost estimate of the Eastern span of the new Bay Bridge was around $2 billion.  The current costs are over $7 billion and climbing.  

The current cost estimate for HSR, which has been climbing over the past decade, is now in the $40 billions, rising from $25 billion to $33 billion before 2008.  And even based on HSR documentation, it is actually $66 billion.  But, construction hasn't even begun.  Indeed, the rail authority hasn't gone out for bids yet.  So, by now, based on many other mega-infrastructure projects, we can forecast with some reliability that the costs for this California HSR project will be above $100 billion.

Next issue is employment.  There are hundreds, if not thousands of Chinese employed to build this bridge.  Most of them in China, of course.  But, many also here.  The article, below, from the New York Times tells us about other projects that," As with the Bay Bridge, American union labor would carry out most of the work done on United States soil."  Note the word "most."  It is the case that there are large numbers of experienced bridge construction workers in the US, and even in California.  It is no surprise that they would find work on this bridge. 

What is more surprising is that all the components are being built in China, shipped here to be assembled. And, doubtlessly, there need to be many Chinese here with bridge assembly experience working to put together what was built in China.  In other words, this is not a "Buy America" kind of project.  Like ever more of everything that is manufactured, the US does its shopping in China where cheaper labor gives us cheaper goods.  

So, what does that have to do with high-speed rail?  Transfer.  First of all, we have zero manufacturing capabilities for HSR components, rolling stock and other necessities.  Second, we have no construction experience in HSR (especially the really fast kind); that and the manufacturing capacity are all overseas.  HSR sounds more and more like this new Bay Bridge, only even less US labor dependent.

The California HSR project is funded with federal dollars to be matched with state bond funds.  The federal requirement for federal dollars  is "Buy America."  How will the HSR managers wiggle around that?  There are loopholes in the legislation and be assured that they will use them.  Yes, there will be US Union guys employed, but far, far fewer than currently promised. The picture I'm getting from this article is that American labor will do the "easy" stuff, like working with concrete.  But the "hard" stuff is going to be done by Chinese.

If the HSR authority finally decides to buy their stuff from China, it will be the new Bay Bridge all over again. But, this time, it's based on federal dollars, including ARRA Stimulus Funds intended to employ unemployed American workers.  Just watch the wiggling and maneuvering to get around that.

Union political support for this HSR project is hugely misconceived.  The construction doesn't start until end of next year, if then.  Meanwhile the Union construction unemployed can cool their heels.  And the rail authority's contractors will hire a fraction of what everyone is now being told. Furthermore, all the stuff needed will be built overseas, where it's cheaper.  As we've said, we don't have any HSR construction or manufacturing capacity in the US. 

What will be the response when US Stimulus dollars go back overseas as profits, such as for Parsons Brinckerhoff, based in the UK?

So, California, our high-speed rail will employ fewer US union work-force than we now believe, and be built, if not in China, in some other country.   That's just one more aspect of the HSR project with all its misleading promises that warrants the "scam" label.

PS: I love the part where Schwarzenegger went to China to inspect the construction process and found it OK.  If anyone should be an expert on the technicalities of bridge construction, it would have been a second-rate actor from Hollywood!  I'm reassured, aren't you?



Ryan Pyle for The New York Times

Published: June 25, 2011




























Xu Yan contributed research.

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