Friday, January 13, 2012

The climate change impact of methane from permafrost etc

So, a friend reports hearing news that Arctic methane releases are way worse than CO2.  How do you respond, or check out this claim?
Methane's a powerful greenhouse gas but has a very short duration in the atmosphere, compared to CO2 which lasts essentially forever "(for human civilization).

To understand the methane news, you can read this great overview of recent methane news coverage (and its strengths & weaknesses) at Columbia Journalism Review, or drop by, where the climate scientists have recently written about the methane studies.

The CJR piece indicates methane from permafrost is worrisome but not a time bomb. It quotes journalist Justin Gillis saying "What I learned about ocean methane was reasonably reassuring, with the caveat that scientists would like to know a great deal more about these deposits before declaring for certain that the hazard is minimal", and authors of the Permafrost Carbon Network methane analysis published in Nature saying that (emphases mine) “despite the massive amount of carbon in permafrost soils, emissions from these soils are unlikely to overshadow those from the burning of fossil fuels, which will continue to be the main source of climate forcing.”

The first Real Climate post addresses methane's likely climate effect overall:

Then they address the methane worst case scenario:

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