



Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to turn it into one of the world's "key trade routes of international significance in scale," as Russia moves to export Arctic oil and gas to China and other hungry economies in the Far East.

The Russian leader predicted in 2011 the route eventually could rival the Suez Canal.


Norway's oil minister, Ola Borten Moe, said if the melting trend continued, he foresaw a time when a range of cargo broader than the current petroleum products, iron ore and coal would be transported through the Arctic waters along the route.

"That will not only be important for energy production but also for all kinds of transportation of goods," he said recently at the Brookings Institution, a research center in Washington. "This could change the dynamics between Europe and Asia."

Just four vessels completed the northern sea route from Europe to Asia in 2010. But the traffic has jumped tenfold since - at least 46 vessels sailed the route this season, according to the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development - and it's expected to increase with continued Arctic development.

A milestone came earlier in December, when the Russian energy giant, Gazprom, announced it completed the world's first liquefied natural-gas cargo delivery across the Arctic through the northern sea route.


"Therefore, it is anticipated that will be the preferred Arctic sea lane," the report concluded.




"With increased shipping and marine traffic comes risk of vessel groundings, spills, collisions, pollutants, noise disturbances and invasive species," said the 2012 report from the Alaska Legislature's Northern Waters Task Force. "This risk is particularly high due to lack of detailed navigational charts, reliable weather forecasting, vessel traffic separation protocols and search and rescue infrastructure."


"What's driving this traffic is natural resource development in Russia and northern Norway," said Brigham, a former icebreaker captain. "Those cargoes are carried across the top of Eurasia to China, other countries in East Asia. But the primary client is China."

The shale gas revolution in the United States also is playing a key role in the development of Arctic shipping from Europe to Asia. European natural gas-export projects, such as Norway's Snow White facility in Hammerfest, originally were built for the American market.

"But by the time we were able to finish the factory, there was no American market," said Borten Moe, the Norwegian oil minister.



The Arctic shortcut between Europe and Asia saves fuel costs and is free of the piracy that plagues shipping elsewhere. But Arctic navigation has challenges and costs, not the least of which are expensive ice-breaking escorts for at least part of the passage.

"There were 46 vessels that went through the northern sea route and 18,000 vessels that go through the Suez Canal, so we've got a ways to go," polar shipping expert Brigham said. "But the potential is absolutely there, because natural resources are crucial to Russia's economy, and here is a way to use this route to move the resources to world markets."