Timeline / what a normal US election looks like and what might happen in 2020

Americans are used to a certain routine with presidential elections – but this year might be different.
Before election day
Mail and early in-person voting
Trump sows doubt in mail-in voting
November 3
Election day
Legal challenges and voter intimidation
Losing candidate concedes
Trump refuses to concede
Mail delays
Disputes over ballots
Lawsuits over which votes to count
Other events that could halt, delay, or alter the process
Results finalized and electors picked
State legislature picks electors
December 8
Safe harbor deadline
December 14
Electoral college
VP decides valid electors
January 20
Winner sworn in
Disputed electors don't count
January 20
Winner sworn in
Governor's certified electors are valid
January 20
Winner sworn in
Supreme Court steps in
January 20
Winner sworn in
January 20
Winner sworn in
Speaker is acting president
Kerem Yucel/AFP/Getty Images
1. What a normal US election looks like
Matt Slocum/AP
The first votes cast
Before election day, some states start early voting and mail-in voting. That's happening in this election, as well.
Paul J. Richards/AFP/Getty Images
On election day, everyone else votes
Americans go to polling places to cast their vote. This is also when mail-in ballots can be counted in most states. Once ballots are tallied, results start being released.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Organizations like the Associated Press often project a winner on election night based on an analysis of votes already counted, the number of outstanding votes and the margin between the candidates.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
The losing candidate typically concedes
This usually happens in the early hours of the next morning. A public concession makes it clear to the American people who has won. It can make everything after this feel like a formality.
The results are finalized
Even if it's clear who won local officials finish counting ballots in the days after the election and send their results to state officials. They approve the results and send them to federal officials.
Election disputes need to be settled before 8 December
States need to settle any election disputes and have a winner by this date, known as the "safe harbor deadline." Otherwise, federal law says Congress can refuse to accept the electoral votes from that state.
Then states pick 'electors' to represent them
When Americans vote they don't directly vote for president and vice president. Rather, they vote for their state "electors" who represent their choice.

For example, if Joe Biden wins Michigan this year, the state's 16 allotted electors would be Democrats. They represent the state at the electoral college meeting on 14 December, where electors meet at their respective state capitols to elect the president and vice-president.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The winning candidate is sworn into office
On 20 January, or 21 January if it's on a Sunday, the constitution says the presidential term is over and the new president is inaugurated.
Ron Adar/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock
2. In 2020, things might be different
The weeks before election day
By early October, 6.6 million Americans had already voted, largely because of a surge in mail-in voting. Trump has said mail-in voting is rigged against him, and his allies have helped sow doubt in the election.

Democrats tend to be more likely to vote by mail, according to research by election scholars Edward Foley and Charles Stewart. That means Democrats will gain more votes as mail ballots are counted, but it might also mean they are less represented in the in-person voting that happens on election day.
On election day, Trump has appealed for ‘poll watchers’
Donald Trump has encouraged supporters to "go into the polls and watch very carefully", and Republicans have actively recruited poll watchers to flag votes that could be challenged. Armed paramilitary groups might show up at polling places to "protect" the election.

Republicans were long barred from poll watching because they used the tactic in 1981 to intimidate voters, but two years ago a judge lifted that restriction.

In addition, Republicans may file an unusual number of lawsuits to try to halt counting or to challenge ballots.
Trump may refuse to concede
Even if the media projects Joe Biden to be the winner, Trump may refuse to concede. He said in August: "The only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged."
Mail-in votes could cause delays
The US Postal Service may be late in delivering mail ballots. Mail delays caused tens of thousands of votes to arrive late during Pennsylvania's primary election.

Trump ally Louis DeJoy was appointed postmaster general and he implemented changes that slowed down deliveries. He reversed those changes, but on-time rates have not fully rebounded.
Lynne Sladky/AP
Republicans may dispute the validity of many ballots
Each state has rules on when mail-in ballots need to be postmarked or received. In addition, ballots need to meet certain criteria – for example, the signatures need to match the one on file with election officials. Republicans plan to challenge the rules and individual ballots.
Republican lawyers may try to disqualify votes
Republican lawyers are preparing possible legal challenges. During the June primary election, they watched Pennsylvania officials count ballots and took note of all the ways they could challenge them, according to the Atlantic's Barton Gellman. Trump reportedly has thousands of attorneys to rush to the courthouse on election day, according to Politico's Anita Kumar.
Republican officials could launch investigations
Republican state and federal officials could sow more doubt in the results by launching investigations into "voting irregularities".

In June, Georgetown University professor Rosa Brooks gathered prominents scholars, media members and top Democratic and Republican officials to simulate possible election scenarios. In one of the scenarios, Trump's attorney general, Bill Barr, opened an investigation into unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud and "ties between Democratic officials and antifa".
Biden also has an army of lawyers at the ready
Biden's lawyers are planning a "voter protection program" to respond to efforts of voter suppression and intimidation. They'll also have to respond to the Trump campaign's legal maneuvers.
Alisha Jucevic/AFP/Getty Images
3. The election chaos could move to the streets
Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act
Democrats could take to the streets to protest Republican interference in the process. In response, Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act to send in active military to "restore order", much like he did during Black Lives Matter protests in Portland. Trump could also order federal troops to confiscate "fraudulent" ballots. This is what happened during one of Brooks's simulations.

In another Brooks simulation, Republicans had the postmaster general seize ballots to "safeguard" the election.
In short, the counting process could be delayed, halted or even altered.
Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images
4. The nightmare scenario
Decisive swing states may not be done counting by the deadline
In decisive swing states, like Pennsylvania and Florida, Trump could draw out the process and sow doubt in the legitimacy of the results.

States need to settle those disputes before the 8 December safe harbor deadline. Otherwise, Congress can refuse to accept their electors. But what if these swing states have yet to finalize the winner as this deadline approaches?
Republican state legislatures could override the voters
State legislatures are constitutionally allowed to pick their own electors to vote for president at the electoral college.

Republicans – who control the legislature in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin – could decide that the election results are illegitimate, citing the disputed counting process. So they may declare the counting null and void, and select electors to support Trump. This is an actual scenario a Trump campaign legal adviser discussed with the Atlantic's Gellman.
In response, Democratic governors could pick a separate group of electors
If Republican legislatures try picking their own electors, Democratic governors could argue that the vote was legitimate and that the state has already elected a winner. So they could send a certificate of the results to the National Archives and choose a separate group of Democratic electors.
This would create two sets of electors from the same state
When presidential electors meet in their respective state capitols to vote for president on 14 December, two groups of electors could show up and try to cast a vote. These electors could be the deciding votes in the presidential election.

In short, both parties would argue they have a claim to the presidency.
The law is unclear on how this should be settled
The laws that govern this scenario aren't very clear about what should happen. This is the constitutional crisis election scholars worry about.

Foley, the election scholar, has explored the various ways this scenario could be settled.
One scenario: Mike Pence could decide the winner
One interpretation of the 12th amendment says the president of the Senate – who is the vice president – decides which electors congress should accept. So he would make Trump the winner.
Another scenario: the disputed state would not count
If a state sends two separate groups of electors, neither would have higher standing in the eyes of Congress so neither of them counts. From there, the candidate with more electoral votes – not counting any votes from the disputed states – would win.
Another scenario: the candidate the governor certified is the winner
Under another interpretation of the Electoral Count Act, the valid electors are the ones the governor certifies after votes are counted. This would only require one chamber of congress to vote for it.
Another scenario: Nancy Pelosi could be acting president until Congress figures it out
If Congress can’t agree on a solution, Democrats would argue the line of succession means that the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, assumes the role of acting president until Congress can agree. But Foley writes that Republicans are unlikely to accept that outcome, and could move to inaugurate Trump to a second term.
Another scenario: the supreme court could step in
These disputes go to the supreme court, and a new 6-3 conservative majority – with the new Trump nominee, Amy Coney Barrett – could make a ruling in favor of Trump. This would jeopardize the appearance of political impartiality the court has long tried to maintain.
These scenarios are not inevitable
In short, the nightmare scenario is Democrats and Republicans disagreeing on the rightful winner of the election.

Even if it doesn't get that far, it's very possible the presidency may be decided in the weeks after election day, rather than on election night. Those fraught events could decide whether America has a clear, democratically elected leader.
Patrick Semansky/AP