These Are the Only Three States on Track to Contain Coronavirus

Based on case numbers and testing, these states appear to have COVID-19 under control.

The coronavirus pandemic has spread across the United States, hitting every state and almost every territory. Now that we're well into the crisis, some areas have been able to keep their cases down while others have seen spiking numbers. But with several states losing control of the situation, a few others are actually poised to end their outbreaks. Unfortunately, emphasis on "a few"—there are currently only three states on track to contain coronavirus.

That's according to Covid Act Now, a group of experts from various backgrounds who analyze the available data and determine each state's risk level for the spread of coronavirus. They use four indicators to make their judgment—if the cases are decreasing, if there's enough testing, if the hospitals are ready, and if the state is tracing fast enough. Based on that criteria, only New York, New Jersey, and Michigan fit the bill. Here's why. And for states that are in worse shape, These 5 States Are Headed for Another Lockdown, Virologist Says.

New York

aerial view of the bronx in new york

While New York was once the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., it's now one of the three states Covid Act Now identifies as on track to contain coronavirus. New York has an infection rate (how many people each sick person will infect, on average) of .84 and a positive test rate of 1.1 percent, which means there is widespread testing and that cases are decreasing. With only 19 percent of available ICU beds needed for future coronavirus cases, hospitals are not in danger of being overwhelmed. Furthermore, New York's 9,600 contact tracers are more than enough to trace all new COVID-19 cases in 48 hours. And for a state to keep an eye on, This State Could Become the Next Coronavirus Epicenter, Experts Say.

New Jersey

jersey city new jersey skyilne

New Jersey had the second-highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the country. Now, however, things have greatly improved. While New Jersey's positive test rate is slightly higher than New York's at 1.8 percent, that's still low enough to indicate widespread testing, and the infection rate of .82 means cases are going down. Covid Act Now estimates the state will need 31 percent of ICU beds for coronavirus, which is well within the safe range. And as in New York, New Jersey has more than enough contact tracers: 2,500. And for states where numbers could be getting worse, These Are the New States the CDC Is Most Worried About.


lansing michigan skyline

Michigan's high coronavirus case numbers, mostly clustered around Detroit, gave the state a relatively high death rate. Thankfully, all signs point to a brighter future. Michigan has the lowest infection rate of all three states at .78, with a positive test rate of 1.4 percent. The state's 1,050 contact tracers should be enough to trace 100 percent of new COVID-19 infections. As for ICU beds, only 15 percent of available beds will likely be needed for coronavirus patients, the lowest percentage of Covid Act Now's three states on track to contain their outbreaks. And for more up-to-date information, sign up for our daily newsletter.

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