Friday, 19 November 2010

So much by so many to so few


After the French defeat in the West in 1940, only England opposed the German Third Reich in its quest to dominate Europe.

The next logical step for the Germans was, obviously, to defeat Great Britain. In order to do that, Germany needed to effectively invade the British Islands, a task that required either domination of the seas by the Germans (rather impossible a mission) or an overwhelming superiority in the air in order to protect landing forces.

On paper, Germany’s might was many times stronger than the British, particularly on ground  and air forces. Therefore, decisions were made, and Germany launched a series of massive air attacks against Britain, which were later to be known as The Battle of England.

Air combat was surrounded by a lot of propaganda from the German side, a lot of boasting, if you will, particularly led by the boss of the German Air Force, die Luftwaffe, Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring.

Numerically inferior, lacking pilots and limited in resources, the Royal Air Force resisted for months, using intelligence, technological advantages like radar and the geographical benefit of battling over British territory.

By the end of 1940, a period described by Winston Churchill, His Majesty’s Prime Minister, as “Britain’s darkest hour”, the German High Command gave up any plans for invading Great Britain.

The full merit of that first and decisive British victory was fully due to the very limited number of pilots who served at the Royal Air Force, RAF, and in one of his most memorable quotes, Winston Churchill said that “never in History was so much owed by so many –the British- to so few” –the pilots.

Our opinion, and not more than just that, an opinion, is that after all the propaganda-like boasting and the even violent attacks by the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, with all his might and power, and despite the $120 million attorney’s fees to be paid by SAP, whatever the final result might be, the sentence will be closer to SAP’s position than to the oracle’s.

In this case, the savings for SAP compared to the potential total cost will be massive, so it could be considered an actual victory for the Germans. And in this case too, “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- to so few” –SAPs lawyers and particularly Top Execs, so few dared to appear.

Trying to be fair, however, we could have recommended the Pontifex to quote Winston Churchill too when he served his testimony, instead of boasting like a merchant sailor: “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- because of so few” –the actual “safe-passaged” customers.


Nothing to fear…


… but the sky falling on our heads. This is what Chief Vitalstatistix used to say to his fellow warriors in the Gaul village surrounded by the almighty Roman Legions in the Asterix cartoon books. Many of our readers might remember these comics by Herge.

So how could these few gauls uphold the Roman Empire? Easy: They could count on a certain magic potion that their peculiar druid Getafix was able to prepare, which provided extra strength to whomever drank it, and made them unique and extraordinary.

Steve Jobs seems to be a better druid or potion maker than the guy with the pharmacist name, Herr Apotheker, as the former somehow found the recipe for the magic potion that makes Apple unique.

In fact it seems that Apple has, at least in the tablet market for the moment, nothing to fear but reaching the sky too fast, what, for the matter, would have the same effect than having the sky falling on their heads. Both Chief Vitalstatistix and druid Getafix all in one, Jobs prospects look good in the tablet market. iPad’s dominating about 95% of the market, serious rivals are yet to come, and the only fear for iPad might be iPad 2.

Important to note, the Gauls in the comic books never ever used their potion to expand their village beyond its own walled limits which they held firmly not to prevent villagers from going out, but Romans to get into their Sancta Sanctorum. They did not need to flee nor expand. Happy they were in their spot beside the coast in Bretagne, where they lived much more happily than the Romans who sieged them.

The Consul’s Legions


In the times of the Republic, Rome was ruled by the Senate. Senators were elected by the Senate, of course, but all men born within a senatorial family would be elected by birthright.

Senate had the power to declare war, and, therefore, it controlled the State Legions, the Roman Army.

Senate leaders (consuls, proconsuls, praetores or propraetores, province governors) therefore needed agreement and support from the Senate itself to use the Army for carrying on any war that sparked.

Commanding legions and succeeding at a military career was not an uncommon way to gain personal glory or reputation to step up for the commander. In many cases, successful political careers were based precisely in military reputation.

Therefore, political success required commanding legions, and commanding legions required support from the Senate. In other words, it was the Senate who controlled who could succeed in his political career by granting him command of legions, regardless the personal value as military leader of the commander.

If we look to the smartphone market, we see some parallelism with what happens to handset or operating systems manufacturers. Carriers do have a lot of power, and the success of this or that vendor depends quite much on this power. Carriers can, somehow, make or break success for this or that manufacturer. Much is being said, for example, about iPhones being distributed through Verizon, or about Apple’s relationship to carriers.

Successful Apples, Androids, LGs, Samsungs, HTCs, Nokias or RIMMs would depend on how “gracious” carriers might be when granting command of legions.

Back to Rome, we as well can see that if a given individual Senator was resourceful enough (ie rich and smart at the same time), he might enlist and equip his own legions, which would rival the State’s, controlled by the Senate. In fact this is what Gaius Marius did around 100 b.C. Thus, he became independent from the Senate to build his military and political career, pretty successful by the way.

We believe this is what Google might be doing, Rich and smart, they might be planning independence from senatorial carriers. And this might lead to a successful career, similar to Marius’, the only person in Roman History to be elected Consul nothing less than seven times.

Careful, Jobs… Androids might take this road to outflank you.

Titanic effort


We do not believe the smartphones war will be a minor one at all. At the moment it looks like Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android-based alternatives are taking a clear lead, eons beyond historical kings of the hill, Nokia and RIMM.

The latter will need a titanic effort to recover and catch up, apparently.

It looks, however, that Nokia’s N8 model, expected to be the company’s flagship, did not really get what “Titanic” was supposed to mean, we’re afraid.


Staying in Moscow


When Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 the world held its breath. Millions of German soldiers crossed the border, and once again smashed whatever troops the enemy put up against them in a major demonstration of the new way of leading war. Blitzkrieg, they called it.

Soviet units fell one by one anywhere the Germans appeared. Encircled by the dozens, the Soviet divisions surrendered and marched to the POW (Prisoner of War) camps in the German rear, or were killed on the spot. The biggest Army by manpower, the red units lost men by the millions.

The Soviet High Command was a complete disaster. No coherent defensive strategy was in place. And worst of all, Stalin virtually disappeared. It seemed he did not want to face reality, the brutal German invasion. Lacking leadership, Soviet cities fell to the Germans, dashing like lightning towards Moscow.

Soon enough, the Soviet government withdrew eastward, beyond the Urals mountain range, in order to reset itself and try to resist somehow the monstrous German tide. All the cabinet fled. All but Stalin.

When Moscow was nearing the German assault, Stalin finally appeared, almost at the very last moment. He delivered to the people one of his propaganda masterpieces, setting the guidelines for Soviet resistance. He was there, he appeared in the very last moment, proved he had not given up, and Moscow did not fall. Probably the Soviet peoples will to resist and ultimately destroy Germany started there and then.

Quarterly financial numbers have a reasonably good expectation for HP. However, from a share perspective, the HP armies are still being beaten by the major cataclysm of Mark Hurd leaving the CEO job in early August.

While struggling in this entourage, HP’s strategy seems to be the very same one Hurd designed and left for his successor to inherit. And Wall Street is not buying it. The biggest army by revenue, its strategy to recover capitalization value was not there.

And its master leader, its CEO, has not publicly shown up three weeks after his official start date…

If History repeats itself, Léo Apotheker should pop up soon, and as the Soviet people did, the market will certainly need a propaganda masterpiece to spark recovery and confidence in putting HP where it should be from that very moment.

Show up before Moscow falls, Léo. The subpoena matter at the SAP trial is a smoke curtain. You can, you should, you ought to. 


Incrediboy’s Syndrome


Lovely story the one in The Incredibles movie, wasn’t it? Everybody can easily recall the glory days when Mr. Incredible, on his own, was carrying on his war against evil. Alone.

Focus on minute 4…

So admired was he that one of his fans, a young teenager, wanted to emulate him. Incrediboy was the name the kid chose, and gallantly offered his services to Mr. Incredible who bitterly rejected the offering. “I work alone”, said he.

Incrediboy was pissed off and seriously outraged, to the point that years later, when superheroes had been called off, he had amassed an enormous wealth and power to turn himself into the most fearful super-villain ever, Syndrome by name. Rejected by superheroes as a teenager, he had turned to the opposite side, and changed his personal aims to end up with any trace of past superheroes and end up dominating the world, as all decent super-villains usually do, of course.

I would say everybody knows how the story ended.

But now we have the modern version of Incrediboy trying to imitate superheroes again… True that todays Incrediboy looks more like the retired Mr. Incredible before he resumed his past glorious times, but still an Incrediboy with a big big big post traumatic stress syndrome…

He as well tries once and again to be like his hero… and his hero kingly ignores him once and again…

Being like this as Incrediboy, we resist ourselves to imagine how he’d be like as Syndrome.