Near Deadlock: The 6 US presidential elections with narrow margins of victory (with electoral maps and how it happened)

Top 6: Grover Cleveland vs James G. Blaine (1884)

Electoral votes: 219-182


The momentum, especially in the critical state of New York, dramatically swung from Blaine to Cleveland. And not only was the election of 1884 tumultuous, but it set the stage for several presidential elections to follow in the 19th century.

The 1884 election, perhaps due to Cleveland’s scandal, was closer than many people expected. Cleveland won the popular vote by a narrow margin, less than half a percent, but secured 218 electoral votes to Blaine’s 182. Blaine lost the state of New York by little more than a thousand votes, and it was believed the “rum, Romanism, and rebellion” comments had been the fatal blow.

The Democrats, celebrating Cleveland’s victory, took to mocking the Republican attacks on Cleveland by chanting, “Ma, Ma, where’s my Pa? Gone to the White House, ha ha ha!” *1

Top 5: George W. Bush vs John Kerry (2004)

Electoral votes: 286-251

2004Election day started with a shockwave through the campaigns and the media. According to exit polls, the President was doing poorly, even in strong Republican states such as Mississippi and South Carolina. Although they could not yet share their findings publicly, it was clear the media were bracing for a major upset. Bush’s chief strategist, Karl Rove, however, was convinced the methodology of the exit polls had to be wrong and, in the end, he was correct. The election would come down to the swing states of Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio. Though they were close, the Bush team became convinced they had won all four and, with them, the presidency. At about four in the morning, however, rumors began circulating that Kerry and Edwards would file a lawsuit over the results in Ohio. Provisional ballots had not been counted in the state by the end of election night, leaving the results in some doubt. Consequently, Bush chose not to declare victory and again denied his supporters, gathered near the White House, a chance to celebrate. Kerry called the next morning to concede.

In the end, Bush won 286 Electoral College votes to Kerry’s 251, along with 50.73 percent of the popular vote. Having lost the popular vote in 2000, this majority, bare though it was, added some popular legitimacy to the Bush presidency and gave him confidence he had could focus on his domestic policy goals. Bush declared that he had earned political capital from the campaign and now he intended to spend it. His hopes, however, were soon dashed. *2

Top 4: Woodrow Wilson vs Charles E. Hughes (1916)

Electoral votes: 277-254

1916The result was exceptionally close and the outcome was in doubt for several days. The electoral vote was one of the closest in American history. With 266 votes needed to win, Wilson took 30 states for 277 electoral votes, while Hughes won 18 states and 254 electoral votes. Wilson’s peace position was likely critical in winning the western states; the key proved to be California, which Wilson won by only 3,800 votes out of nearly a million ballots cast. In the popular vote, Wilson’s lead was ultimately larger, but extremely narrow. Wilson’s popular vote margin of 3.1% remained the smallest attained by a victorious sitting president until 2004.

The total number of popular votes cast in 1916 exceeded that of 1912 by 3.5 million. The large total indicated the public’s heightened interest in the campaign, in part due to states’ extension of suffrage to women. *3

Top 3: John Adams vs Thomas Jefferson (1796)

Electoral votes: 71-68

540px-electoralcollege1796-svgThe Constitution in 1796 required presidential electors to place the names of two individuals on their ballots; the candidate with the highest vote count, if a majority, became the president and the runner up the vice president.

It was generally agreed among the leading Federalists that John Adams of Massachusetts should follow the Southerner George Washington. Alexander Hamilton, however, had quarreled with Adams and sought to influence the results. Hamilton much preferred Thomas Pinckney of South Carolina, the presumed vice presidential candidate, and persuaded a number of Southern electors to vote for Pinckney and a lesser candidate, i.e. ignoring Adams. Word leaked out, however, and Adams supporters in New England influenced electors to drop Pinckney’s name from their ballots.

The results were not anticipated by anyone. Adams won with 71 electoral votes, but was followed by Thomas Jefferson with 68 votes; Thomas Pinckney trailed the leaders with 59. The president was a Federalist, but the vice president was the leader of the Republican opposition – an untidy situation. *4

Top 2: George W. Bush vs Al Gore (2000)

Electoral votes: 271-266




Top 1: Rutherford B. Hayes vs Samuel J. Tilden (1876)

Electoral votes: 185-184







An informal agreement between the two parties, sometimes called the “Compromise of 1877,” convinced the Democrats that they should accept the Commission’s 8-7 vote, which made Hayes the new president. *6

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