US fertility keeps dropping — but that's not a reason to panic

US fertility keeps dropping — but that's not a reason to panic
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on May 15 that the number of births in the U.S. is down 2% – “the lowest number of births in 32 years.”

These reports were met with surprise and alarm. USA Today, for example, led with the headline “A lot of empty kindergarten rooms.”


Unusually high rates






Fluctuation is normal






And, between the 1990s and early 2000s, Sweden’s fertility fell and then rose, in part due to changes in the timing of births, the economy and the state’s generous supports for parents.



However, if economic conditions improve for these young people, research suggests they are likely to “make up” many of these births later in their lives. Whether these younger cohorts do or not will be more consequential than the current yearly birth rate.

Finally, part of the drop in overall fertility is due to declines in unintended birth rates. Such declines have been a public policy goal for decades —- so the dip in fertility should be seen as a good thing, not a cause for gloom.

Keep it steady


There are at least two scenarios that would create challenges. The first is a persistently low fertility rate that leads, over time, to a shrinking population. A population with a sustained fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman, for example, will quickly contract.


Both of these scenarios could happen, but it’s important to emphasize that the U.S. is not currently experiencing either one. However, I believe that it would be wise implement policies that would make it easier for those who want to have children to do so, such as paid family leave and subsidized child care. Also, immigration has helped improve the U.S.‘ demographic profile in the past, and could continue to do so in the future.

The U.S. is unlikely to return to the exceptionally high fertility rates we had before the last recession, but the current rate is one that many countries would be thrilled with.

This is an updated version of an article originally published on May 30, 2018.The Conversation

Caroline Sten Hartnett, Assistant Professor of Sociology, University of South Carolina


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