Ecological transition: let’s hurry, otherwise our children will see electric mobility

The ecological transition is a global challenge, the success of which also depends on the transition to electric mobility. If governments are to achieve their climate goals, sales of electric cars must grow significantly. The trend is positive, but the obstacles are many. BloombergNEF’s analysis published this week offers more food for thought.

The number of electric vehicles

There are only 16 million electric cars on the street today against a total of 1.2 billion. This is a small proportion. With the current rates areInternational Energy Agency estimates that the share of electric cars sold in 2030 in relation to the total number will be between 22% and 35%.

According to BloombergNEF, electric cars in 2025 will account for about 25% of car sales in 2025. At best, only 14% of the cars on the world’s roads will be electric by then.

Electric mobility around the world

The current scenario sees Germany, Britain, France and China closer to phasing out sales of internal combustion vehicles by 2038. The US, Japan and Australia would all catch up, while India, Southeast Asia and the rest of the world are even further behind.

The net carbon emissions to be achieved by 2050

However, it is not enough to reach the global goal of net zero zero emissions by 2050. To do this, electric cars must increase their share of new cars to 60% by 2030, according to the IEA. It is very difficult to achieve this goal.

The penetration of electric vehicles also moderates the increase in road transport emissions. However, the amount of CO2 emitted is expected to increase for at least two years after the highest oil demand. The reason? The additional emissions of electricity from plants supplying electricity to the fleet.

“Despite the rapid increase in the use of electric vehicles, road transport is still not moving towards CO2 neutrality by 2050.” This is the view of the analysts led by Colin McKerracher, BloombergNEF’s head of advanced transportation. “Aggressive action by policy makers will be needed, especially on heavier vehicles.” In this context, in fact, “both batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are vying for a place in the market. The window to stay on the road to net zero closes quickly ”.

The difficulties of electric mobility despite the growth

That sale of electric cars increased by 120% in 2021, while global sales of internal combustion motor vehicles are steadily declining after the peak of 2017. Overall, the global fleet of road combustion vehicles will begin to shrink by 2024. By next year, supplies will have fallen by around 19% from their peak.

However, there are a number of structural problems that will slow down growth.

Russia, nickel and the prices of other commodities

Last month was the price of lithium has reached levels above seven times higher than at the beginning of 2021. At the same time, prices are at cobalt he was born in nickel has increased. Russia, which has been heavily sanctioned, for example, produces one-fifth of the high-quality nickel used in some electric batteries. All other things being equal, the price of battery packs could rise by 15% if these prices remain around the current level. A similar scenario would reverse several years of decline.

“If commodity prices remain high or rise further, this could delay the timeline by a few years compared to 2024 in most markets,” analysts write. That said, they do not expect the rising cost of batteries to derail the adoption of electric vehicles in the short term.

Network resilience and developing countries

Moreover, in many countries it is very likely that net it will not be able to handle the extra strain that the introduction of electric vehicles would entail, which is necessary to achieve the CO2 neutrality targets. Researchers have identified some countries and regions where the transition to electric mobility will be slower between. Among these, India, Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia stand out. “Without further policies in these countries, the net zero lane will remain out of reach of global road transport,” they explain.

The role of governments

To move towards the goal of no longer producing emissions, governments should act together. It would be important to set gradual limits on the sale of combustion vehicles, but also to set strict standards for fuel economy and battery recycling.

In addition, politicians may consider moving some grants to support the construction of charging networks. According to the scenario net zero developed by BNEF, it will therefore be necessary $ 1.4 trillion in investment to build a charging infrastructure by 2040.

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