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CFC Ban Saved The Planet From Becoming A ‘Scorched Earth’, Study Shows

Jamie Hailstone

This planet would already be facing the reality of a “scorched Earth” would it not be for an international agreement signed more than 30 years ago, according to a new study.

The study led by scientists at the University of Lancaster into the Montreal Protocol, which was first signed in 1987, concludes the agreement has had wide-ranging benefits in the fight against climate change.

The Protocol banned the production of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which were damaging the Earth’s ozone layer.

The ozone layer shields the planet from harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays generated from the sun. 

According to the researchers, if the use of CFCs had been left unchecked then their continued and increased use would have contributed to global air temperatures rising by an additional 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. 

Modelling developed by the researchers also reveals continued growth in CFCs would have led to a worldwide collapse in the ozone layer by the 2040s.

And by 2050 the strength of the UV from the sun in the mid-latitudes, which includes most of Europe including the U.K., the United States and central Asia, would be stronger than the present-day tropics.

And without the Montreal Protocol there would have been 580 billion tonnes less carbon stored in forests, other vegetation and soils by the end of this century, the modelling also reveals.

In addition, there would be an additional 165-215 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, depending on the future scenario of fossil fuel emissions. 

Compared to today’s 420 parts per million CO2, this is an additional 40-50%.

The scientists conclude this huge amount of additional COwould have contributed to an additional 0.8°C of warming through its greenhouse effect.

The study comes after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released part of its Sixth Assessment Report, which warned the planet will not be able to limit global warming to even 2°C unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

“Our new modelling tools have allowed us to investigate the scorched Earth that could have resulted without the Montreal Protocol’s ban on ozone depleting substances,” said lead author, Dr Paul Young. 

“A world where these chemicals increased and continued to strip away at our protective ozone layer would have been catastrophic for human health, but also for vegetation. The increased UV would have massively stunted the ability of plants to soak up carbon from the atmosphere, meaning higher CO2 levels and more global warming.

“With our research, we can see that the Montreal Protocol’s successes extend beyond protecting humanity from increased UV to protecting the ability of plants and trees to absorb CO2. Although we can hope that we never would have reached the catastrophic world as we simulated, it does remind us of the importance of continuing to protect the ozone layer. Entirely conceivable threats to it still exist, such as from unregulated use of CFCs.”

Dr Chris Huntingford, of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology added: “This analysis reveals a remarkable linkage, via the carbon cycle, between the two global environmental concerns of damage to the ozone layer and global warming.”

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