Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Ita to Make Landfall in Australia

Computer simulation of surface winds and air pressure associated with Tropical Cyclone Ita in far north Australia.


With each successive forecast, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) projected storm track has come into closer agreement with the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. That spells trouble for the tropical resort city of Cairns, which is a gateway to the Great Barrier Reef and the lush forests of northern Queensland.

Cyclone Ita satellite

Infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Ita as it approached the coast of Queensland on April 10, 2014.

According to the BOM, Ita is expected to make landfall between Cape Mellville and Cooktown as a Category Five storm on Friday evening, Australian time. The BOM issued a statement warning that the landfall area could expect gusts as high as 186 miles per hour, along with dangerous storm surge flooding.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

The storm is then forecast to weaken while curving south-southeastward, affecting Cooktown, Port Douglas, Cairns and Innisfail. The Typhoon Warning Center predicts that the storm's center will strike land right over Cape Flattery, before lashing the coastal communities from Cooktown to Cairns with strong winds and potentially damaging storm surge flooding, before reemerging over the ocean on April 15.

The exact track of the storm has been difficult to predict in part because it is so compact, with the diameter of hurricane force winds (greater than 74 miles per hour) only reaching about 30 to 40 miles outside of the center of the storm. The storm's rapid intensification was not fully anticipated, either, and there are some indications that it may weaken some before coming ashore.

If it fails to weaken significantly, it would become one of the most intense storms on record to hit Queensland.

In general, forecasters have more success predicting a storm's track than changes in its intensity, largely due to a lack of observational data from within the core of a storm. Computer models don't yet take all the key factors governing storm strength into account, and often lack the resolution necessary to capture small-scale developments in a storm as small as Ita is.

In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been conducting research to change that within the next few years, with modest successes seen so far.

At its peak intensity, Tropical Cyclone Ita exceeded the strength of Tropical Cyclone Yasi which struck Queensland in 2011, causing $3.6 billion in damage. That storm was the costliest in Australia's history.

Ita could be more costly than Yasi, depending on its ultimate track and intensity. One concern is that the storm may slow down once it makes landfall, which could yield dangerously high rainfall in a state that has already had a number of of flooding events in recent years.

A tropical cyclone is the same type of storm as a hurricane, but these storms are referred to differently throughout the world. In the north Pacific, for example, they are known as typhoons.

In Australia, meteorologists use a different standard than the U.S. does for measuring tropical cyclone sustained winds, relying on a 10-minute wind reading, rather than the 1-minute average that the U.S. uses. The country also uses a slightly different ratings scale that has a lower threshold for a Category Five storm than the Saffir-Simpson scale that Americans are accustomed to.

According to Climate Central, when its winds are compared to the Saffir-Simpson strength scale used in the North Atlantic basin, Ita ranks as a Category Four storm, while the BOM ranks it as a Category Five storm.

Regardless of the standard used or storm type that is cited, Ita is an unusually potent storm that could do enormous damage.


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