---
abstract: 'A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002–2008. Modelling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF) which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behaviour was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for types B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and C:P1.5,2:F3-3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modelling, simulation and inference of self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modelling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the `R` package `surveillance`.'
author:
- |
    Sebastian Meyer$^{1,2,*}$, Johannes Elias$^{3}$, and Michael Höhle$^{4,2,**}$\
    $^{1}$Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany\
    $^{2}$Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany\
    $^{3}$German Reference Centre for Meningococci, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany\
    $^{4}$Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
bibliography:
- 'bibliography.bib'
date: '[*Received November*]{} 2010. [*Revised August*]{} 2011. [*Accepted August*]{} 2011.'
title: |
    A space-time conditional intensity model\
    for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence
---

\[firstpage\]

[Conditional intensity function; Infectious disease surveillance data; Spatio-temporal point process; Stochastic epidemic modelling]{}.

Introduction {#sec:intro}
============

Spatio-Temporal Two-Component CIF Model {#sec:stCIFmodel}
=======================================

\[sec:twinstim\]

Statistical Inference {#sec:inference}
=====================

Simulation Algorithm {#sec:simulation}
====================

Application to the IMD Data {#sec:application}
===========================

Discussion {#sec:discussion}
==========

Supplementary Materials
=======================

The Web Animation referenced in Section \[sec:intro\] and the Web Appendices referenced in Sections \[sec:inference\] and \[sec:simulation\] are available under the Paper Information link at the *Biometrics* website <http://www.biometrics.tibs.org/>.

Acknowledgements {#acknowledgements .unnumbered}
================

We thank Ludwig Fahrmeir for providing helpful suggestions and comments. Financial support was provided by the Munich Center of Health Sciences. Ulrich Vogel is thanked for his efforts in ensuring the generation of high quality IMD surveillance data and helpful discussions. Matthias Frosch is acknowledged for continuous support. We thank the co-editor Thomas Louis, an anonymous associate editor and two anonymous referees for their useful comments that improved the presentation of the article.

\[lastpage\]
