Biden Tops Dem 2020 List with 30 Percent of the Vote
JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. It's hard to call this breaking news given that the 2020 Iowa caucuses are 416 days away, 416 days away. But as Democratic presidential hopefuls use this holiday season to think through, whether they really have what it takes or whether they at least think they have what it takes. It's a brand new poll numbers on the early very, very early state of the Democratic race. Joe Biden, the former vice president, tops the field. Bernie Sanders, remember he ran last time against Hillary Clinton, second. Beto O'Rourke, fresh from losing his Senate race in Texas falls into third place. Cory Booker, John Kerry, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren. These the top seven, there are more but they didn't get at least three percent. Top seven now. But look at that, Joe Biden, right, boom you're a shoe in. Let's just look at what Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, do they have a favorable opinion of these candidates? Well, Biden is off the chart, so as Bernie Sanders. Democrats, Democratic-leaners love them. Elizabeth Warren above water now. These lower numbers, that's not necessarily bad news. It just means some of these newcomers aren't very well-known nationally even among Democratic-leaning voters. So they have a lot of work to do to fill in the blanks if you will. And I remember that first number, Joe Biden way at the top. That mean he's going to be the nominee? No, this is where we were at the same point in 2014, heading in to the 2016 cycle. Jeb Bush was the run away favorite among Republicans. Followed by Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul. You might notice there's a name missing from this list? No Trump. No Trump. He wasn't even a factor in the race. Then the first time we saw his numbers in a poll is when you get to May of 2015. Then at three percent, 17 days later, he announced he was running for president. You know the rest. He is president. So just because you're not doing very well in the polls now doesn't say all that much about what's going to happen in 2020. As the Democrats sort this out, here's the current president of the United States who went through that crowd at primary in 2016 saying, I don't think I'm going to have worry about that this time.</s>DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think we have the greatest base in the history of politics. I have people that I love and that love me frankly that includes a lot of women. The news and the polls are really fake. But I have the greatest base in history because the 46 percent and 48 percent, those people, they never wavered.</s>KING: He's probably right based on everything we know today. He probably doesn't have a tough primary challenge but we will see, because just as the conversation I have about the Democrats. Anybody wants to take what we know today and projected to 2020 is nuts. But let's comeback to the idea of where we are, just as you try to make this decision over the holiday season. You're Cory Booker, you're Kamala Harris, you're Joaquin Castro, you know, with some of the lesser known candidates. Can I raise the money? Can I build a staff? Can I beat Joe Biden?</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.</s>KING: Can I beat Bernie Sanders?</s>NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIR POLITICAL REPORTER: And can I make Democrats fall in love with me, right? I mean that's one of the things that Donald Trump talked about in terms of how his base feels about him. That was certainly the case for Barrack Obama. I mean, he could get those big crowds and really connect with people on an emotional level. I think that's the big question. People don't want to fall in line. They want to fall in love and that's why you see Beto for instance there, who had big crowds, who had a lot of money. Lebron James endorsement, Beyonce endorsement and that's in some ways why he's at nine percent at this point.</s>LISA LERER, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Right. And I think he is a black box.</s>HENDERSON: Yes.</s>LERER: It's easy to fall in love when you don't know anything about the person and I think most voters don't know a lot about him. The number that struck me in that poll was Elizabeth Warren's unfavorable rating was fairly high for someone who's not as well known as a Biden, as a Bernie. And you know, she is perhaps the furthest along in terms of the actual planning for an announcement.</s>KING: Right.</s>LERER: But you look at those numbers and you say, well, she's going to have a lot of work to do to change some of these minds. That's she's, you know, approaching the electorate that already has a view of her in about a third of Democratic and Democratic-leaners have a negative view of her. And you know, that can be a bit of problem.</s>KING: In part because of how he -- she has handle things. But in part because the president likes to single her out. So, you know, the question is --</s>LERER: But that should maybe help her with Democratic voters, right?</s>KING: You would think unless it's overtime having an effect. I just want to say if you're Joe Biden you're thinking, wow, look at that, I'm twice as high as anybody else. Let's go back in history. At this point in 2008, Rudy Giuliani was going to be your Republican nominee, it was John McCain. At this point in 2008 in the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, she's going to be your nominee, didn't work out that way. Back in 2004, I didn't remember this, but Hillary Clinton at this point was leading there, John Kerry was the nominee. So, if you're Joe Biden and you're going to run, you will be breaking -- defying history.</s>JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: No question. And that's a reason for anyone who's thinking about getting in, just to get in now, because they don't know if Biden is going to run or not. But all the comparisons being made to Obama, you should make comparisons to Barack Obama in January of 2007. He was not the candidate. He was when he started and when he finished, that year proved to be a massive obstacle course of marathon. He was knocked down. The question is, who can get backed up? Who can have a second act? It's not about the first act, it's the second act. Hillary Clinton was to be the nominee in '08 and then Iowa happened and then everything changed. So that's why so many people will probably run, but I'm not convinced it's going to be as big of a list as we actually.</s>KING: Four hundred and 16 days to the Iowa caucuses. I want to start right now, start working on the road show. It's time to go and get there soon enough. To that point, the results of the very first CNN</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A traditional farewell speech in the United States Senate is full of accomplishments and thanks. I'm going to skip half of that.