Former McCain Manager Leaving the GOP; Trump Touts Denuclearization
HARLOW: This morning, a poignant, new cover from "Time" magazine taking on the current crisis at the southern border. Take a look at this. The photo illustration shows a towering President Trump staring at a crying child with the message, welcome to America. The young girl you see here is a two-year-old Honduran child crying for her mother. This is from an actual photo that was taken of the girl and then, of course, this is an image that they've super imposed of the president there. Joining me now, CNN's senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst Rachael Bade also with us. Thank you both for being here. And, Rachael, let me begin with you. You've got that image, right? And then you have the president saying, as he signed that executive order yesterday, quote, I didn't like the sight or the feeling of families being separated.</s>RACHAEL BADE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right.</s>HARLOW: But this was his policy -- this was his practice. I mean he knew that when instituting zero tolerance, this is what would happen.</s>BADE: Yes.</s>HARLOW: So what is it that the president is now saying he doesn't like about it?</s>BADE: Well, clearly he got the message from his party that this was not acceptable and he's feeling the burn and trying to backtrack. And he tried to blame this on Democrats and the reality was that a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill came out and said, Mr. President, this isn't a Democratic proposal, this is yours, and you can stop it. And so obviously he was backtracking. I think on The Hill there was a lot of relief when he signed this, but there's also a feeling that this battle is not over. Secretary Nielson -- Homeland Secretary Nielson was on The Hill the other day telling lawmakers yesterday afternoon that even though they have this executive order in place, it's a matter of time before it pretty much blows up and so they need to act now, get to address this issue. The problem with that is that even if Congress passes something addressing this matter, I'm told that -- from somebody who is close with the president, that he has not come around to this idea of signing a very narrow immigration bill fixing this issue at the border. And so that might be the next turn in this battle.</s>HARLOW: You know, Ron, when you talk about the party and the impact on the party and a party divided over this, right, the Republican Party, you have a long time Republican strategist who worked for -- managed John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, Steve Schmidt, and he said over this stuff he's leaving the party. Here's what he wrote, 29 years and nine months ago I registered to vote and become a member of the Republican Party, which was founded in 1854 to oppose slavery, to stand for the dignity of human life. Today I renounce my membership in the Republican Party. It is fully the party of Trump. Is that a one-off or is that something that the party should be concerned about moving forward?</s>RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, well, first of all, the analysis is connect. I mean, you know, there was no reason for the White House to think that this was the moment at which House Republicans would balk because they have followed Trump step-by-step into his redefinition of the party around these themes of racially infused nationalism. I mean they -- the opposition to the wall during the -- during the primaries was -- is gone. I mean even the compromise bill fully funds it. Every Senate Republican voted to deny funding to cities that don't fully cooperate with ICE. All but seven House Republicans vote to deny funding. The compromise bill would create a new right of action for individuals against cities and states who don't fully cooperate with ICE. So they have fought -- you know, they have marched themselves into this quagmire by acceding at each step to Trump's nationalism, not only by the way on immigration, but also on trade and alliance. And the risk they face is that while this is very popular with their older and blue collar base, I mean this is majority opinion in the Republican Party supported the idea of the separation.</s>HARLOW: It is.</s>BROWNSTEIN: But it is much less popular among their younger and college educated portions of their coalition and obviously less popular still among younger and college educated voters outside of their coalition and that is the risk they are facing -- they are taking by following Trump in this direction.</s>HARLOW: And, Rachael, we know from that same polling that Ron is pointing to, the CNN polling this week, that it's opposed by three out of four women. And it is those suburban white women that helped, you know, secure the presidency for President Trump. And if they are opposing this in areas that are more dangerous for the party and for him, that matters a lot.</s>BADE: Yes, I would say, Republicans, you know, has objected to this on moral grounds. But, you know, privately they're all -- they were also freaking out about the politics of this. You mentioned women. You know, a lot of women in suburban, educated districts, this is the battle -- the ground zero for the battle to take the House for Democrats. They are targeting these suburban, educated districts and women there are already skeptical of Trump. And so this policy obviously is not sitting well with them. It's also not sitting well in Hispanic populated districts. And there are a lot of swing districts in the House that are currently controlled by Republicans that are key targets for Democrats and it doesn't play well there either. So, politically, this was just a disaster, a huge miscalculation on the part of the president when it comes to protecting his party's majority.</s>HARLOW: What do you make, Ron, of the calculation the president has made this week to attack his own, I mean to attack Mark Sanford. Granted, he lost the primary. But to attack John McCain at the rally in Duluth, Minnesota, last night, talking about him with the thumbs down on the health care vote, going after him again as John McCain is battling terminal brain cancer.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Yes, look --</s>HARLOW: I just don't understand the strategy of the president. One of the people in the crowd, a Trump supporter, screamed out last night, but he's a war hero.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Yes, interesting. Look, I think, you know, the president -- it is not a bug. It is a feature of the presidency to attack an endless series of targets and to constantly portray himself as fighting against all comers, all elites on behalf of his coalition. And it is producing, I think, you know, an electoral landscape that has to be seen as very bifurcating. It's not simple. If you look at the polling, for example the CNN polling, roughly two- thirds of non-white Americans want a Democratic controlled Congress and about 55 percent of college educated whites want a Democratic controlled Congress. I was -- that was roughly the number in CNN, Pew and Quinnipiac yesterday. On the other hand, this is a kneeling or solidifying the Republican hold on a lot of blue collar and non-urban America. Fifty-five percent of non-college whites said they want a Republican Congress in the CNN poll. And it is entirely possible that we end up with an election that consolidates the Democratic control in metro areas that are dense -- you know, densely populated, diverse, moving into the information economy, and Republicans remain really strong outside of that in the less urban areas and are more rooted in manufacturing and ag and resource extraction. And the divide between the two is even more glaring and confrontational after November than it is today and certainly that's what we're -- looks like we're headed for in 2020 as well.</s>HARLOW: Except some of those voters, the rural, you know, farmers are opposed --</s>BROWNSTEIN: On trade --</s>HARLOW: Opposed, yes, on the trade.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Yes, on trade. Yes, trade. Yes.</s>HARLOW: But also like the Goodlatte bill, what it would do to legal immigration and what that would mean for their workforce. So, all right, Ron Brownstein, thank you. And Rachael Bade, nice to have you both. The president touting North Korea's denuclearization last night at a rally. Listen to this.</s>DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They stopped all nuclear testing. They stopped nuclear research. They stopped rocketry. They stopped everything that you'd want them to stop and they blew up sites where they test and do the testing.</s>HARLOW: Hours earlier though, Defense Secretary James Mattis said he's not aware of any concrete steps that the North has taken to denuclearize. So, which is it? Let's go to the Pentagon. Barbara Starr is there for more. This is a very important divide among two people that really should be on the same page on this.</s>BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Poppy, I think that the defense secretary once again in the awkward position of batting cleanup for the president.</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>STARR: In fact, Secretary Mattis telling reporters here at the Pentagon yesterday he's seen no evidence so far that the North Koreans have done anything to denuclearize. And, in fact, he said that the negotiations to make all of that happen have not begun yet, so you wouldn't even expect it. The negotiations not beginning with the North Koreans on this is a very key point. The two sides have to sit down, talk about, what is denuclearization? What sites are you going to dismantle? What are you going to blow up? How are you going to get inspectors in there? How are you going to verify all of that? So the president's statement that they've done everything perhaps just a little bit in advance of actual reality on the ground. And this is the position that we see Mattis in time and again. The president says something and the secretary has to sort of put that heavy dose of reality on there. The bottom line right now is, any military or intelligence officials you talk to will tell you that so far they see no evidence of North Korean denuclearization. Poppy.</s>HARLOW: Barbara Starr fact checking it for us from the Pentagon. Appreciate it this morning. Thank you. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin planning to meet, we've learned this morning, in mid-July. It's happening during the president's trip to the U.K. and the NATO summit. One official saying Vienna may be the location for this meeting. No official announcement, though, has been made. Images like this of a scared child on the southern border are spurring national outcry. Now major questions about what other pictures the Trump administration may not want out there to the public. We'll talk about it ahead.