What Happens with Iraqi People After Fighting is Over?
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush says it is too risky to wait and see what terrorists would do with weapons of mass destruction. He made it clear last week yet again that the U.S. is ready to go alone against Iraq and Saddam Hussein.</s>GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The cost of an attack is significant. If I thought we were safe from attack, I would be thinking differently. But I see a gathering threat. I mean this is a true, real threat to America and therefore we will deal with it.</s>HEMMER: Comments from Thursday evening, last week at the White House. What happens, though, with the Iraqi people after the fighting is over? Fawaz Gerges is professor of international studies at Sarah Lawrence College. He's our guest here on AMERICAN MORNING. Nice to see you in person. Good morning to you.</s>FAWAZ GERGES, PROFESSOR, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: Good to see you.</s>HEMMER: Let's forecast here. It's mid-April. The fighting is over. Saddam's out of power. What do the Iraqi people do in the streets of Baghdad?</s>GERGES: Well, I think if the Iraq and if the war ends quickly, with few casualties, I expect the Iraqi people, even though they're fragmented and suspicious of foreign interventions, will embrace American soldiers as liberators. The big questions are the following. Will a prolonged American military presence be tolerated? What if the political reconstruction of Iraq does not succeed? What if Iraq fractures and descends into chaos? I believe that the potential risks of war outweigh any benefits to American security, in the short-term and the long-term, as well.</s>HEMMER: I think all fair questions. They're all issues that we can get to here. Back up just a little bit, though. If Iraqis are parading in the streets and dressing down soldiers with flowers and bouquets, doesn't that give the surest sign of victory for the military conflict?</s>GERGES: Well, I mean, in the short=-term of course it does. The big question is the following here. I think a war in Iraq will deepen the sense of humiliation and defeat felt by the Arab youth and make him a fertile ground, recruiting ground for militant causes like Osama bin Laden.</s>HEMMER: But if Saddam Hussein has all these enemies in the Arab world, and we've yet to see a strong coalition come together and say we support him and he should stay in power, why, then, would that suggest that the young Arab world would be willing to fight and carry on his cause? Where's the evidence of that?</s>GERGES: The truth is there is no love for Saddam Hussein. In fact, most people would believe that Iraq and the Iraqi people will be a better place without Saddam Hussein. It's really American foreign policy. I think it's the rush to war. It's the feeling that this is really an unjust war. And in the same manner, in the same manner as the 1991 Gulf War really played a decisive role in giving rise to bin Ladenism, I feel that this war, which is seen to be unjust, will give rise to new jihadic groups who are determined to attack America and Americans.</s>HEMMER: You think the Persian Gulf War gave rise to Osama bin Laden?</s>GERGES: The 1991 Gulf War...</s>HEMMER: Understood.</s>GERGES: ... played a decisive role in giving rise.</s>HEMMER: But because...</s>GERGES: The stationing of American troops in Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, the Iraqi tragedy, the prolonged Iraqi tragedy, they were really provided, you might say, fueled the revolt against America, which was exploited by Osama bin Laden.</s>HEMMER: Help me understand this, then. In 1991, it was largely thought throughout the Arab world that they wanted to have an Arab solution to the situation in Iraq. Why are we not hearing that 12 years later?</s>GERGES: Well, unfortunately now the Arab world is extremely splintered and divided, even though most Arabs would like to get rid of Saddam Hussein, they are, I mean, terrified of the after shocks of the Iraqi earthquake. Most Arabs do not really believe that the United States would have the stomach and the staying power to stick around and help really reconstruct Iraq and invest in the political future of the region.</s>HEMMER: But we have seen and heard from the White House, we have heard from London time after time that they are willing and committed to do this. And in the past, they have not fulfilled their word. I agree with you on that. But this time is different.</s>GERGES: Well, as...</s>HEMMER: This time is for real.</s>GERGES: ... as you know, Afghanistan is not a reassuring case at all. I mean will the...</s>HEMMER: Why not?</s>GERGES: Will the United States invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the political and economic and social reconstruction of Iraq? Will the United States stick around for one or two decades? I mean what if the Iraqi project, I mean, proves to be very difficult? Will the United States, I mean, invest a treasure and blood in the country itself? I mean there are many unanswered questions and this is why I believe that we might prevail over Saddam Hussein militarily and lose the larger and more important political struggle for the hearts and minds of Muslims.</s>HEMMER: To be continued. Nice to see you again.</s>GERGES: It's a pleasure.</s>HEMMER: Fawaz Serges, thank you, Sarah Lawrence College.</s>GERGES: Yes, sir.