Campaign Season Kicks Off; Political Panel
DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Dana Bash, in for Jake Tapper. The politics lead. While many Americans are enjoying a well deserved day off, in Washington, Labor Day echoes like a starter pistol's blast, signaling it's election season. And it's kicking into high gear.</s>BASH (voice-over): And they're off. Politicians are laboring hard today, the unofficial start of campaign season.</s>JOSEPH BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.: It's good to be back with the people, who as that old saying goes, brung me to the dance. I appreciate it.</s>BASH: Vice President Joe Biden laid on the charm in Detroit, making sure labor unions get out the vote for Democrats. The president touched down for more of the same in Milwaukee.</s>BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Today is a day that belongs to you.</s>BASH: But nevermind talk from politicians. What's Labor Day without a picnic? Democrat Charlie Crist attended this one today in Florida, where he's running for governor.</s>FORMER GOV. CHARLIE CRIST, D-FLA.: I'd appreciate your vote.</s>BASH: And if a parade is more your style, take a look at these photos from New Hampshire's Senate contenders Jeanne Shaheen and Republican challenger Scott Brown, who tweeted momentum is picking up. And these politicians are really only getting started for a sprint towards election day. All told, candidates in House and Senate races have already spent more than half a billion dollars on their campaigns. That's a billion with a b. An additional billion and a half is expected to be poured in before the final ballots are cast. There are just 63 days until the midterm election, but 799 days until election day 2016, the race for the White House.</s>GOV. RICK PERRY, R-TEXAS: 29 months left of President Barack Obama.</s>BASH: But that hasn't stopped many probable GOP presidential hopefuls from kicking off the holiday weekend, politicking at the Americans for Prosperity event in Dallas.</s>SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS: Just over 1,500 hours, we're going to retake the United States Senate. We're going to retire Harry Reid.</s>BASH: From Ted Cruz to Rand Paul.</s>SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY.: If the president has no strategy, maybe it's time for a new president.</s>BASH: But the landscape in the fight for the White House will be set by how things shake out this fall, whether Republicans will gain the six seats needed to take control of the Senate and dominate Congress for President Obama's final two years in office.</s>BASH: Let's bring in our panel now. Our CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, Republican strategist Doug Heye and national political correspondent for the New York Times and contributor for CNN's "Inside Politics," Jonathan Martin. Thank you all for coming in on Labor Day.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Happy labor day.</s>BASH: I wish we had a barbecue in the green room, but I don't want to set off any fire codes. Let's start with the landscape, and what we're going to be looking at, with the real prize, which is the Senate. Right? Republicans need to pick up six seats, all told, in order to actually take control of the Senate. So what we're talking about, first of all, is we can show some pictures. West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota. Those are three states that are pretty much I think everybody agrees gone. They were Democratic senators, they retired. Republicans are likely to take those. That brings us now to 3 seats, just three seats Republicans are going to need. And they have a huge number of competitive Democratic Senate seats that they have the ability to take. Iowa, Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, Colorado, Michigan and New Hampshire. It's a lot. Now, on the Democratic side, there are really only two Republican seats that they're truly competitive to try to get, Kentucky and Georgia. And even that's going to be an upset if they get those. So given all of that, Donna, I'm going to put you in the hot seat here, give me a little Louisiana candor.</s>DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Let me just say this. Four years ago, I was a lot more nervous then than I am now. Here's why.</s>BASH: That's Louisiana candor?</s>BRAZILE: Well, you know, we're not out there -- we're not throwing in the towel, nor are we going to cook the leftovers until the election day. On the generic ballot, we're competitive, if not, we are in a better position than Republicans. Two, we understand that we have more seats in play this time than ever before, and that some of these seats are so-called ruby red. I think the Democratic Party has really done a great job in identifying those voters that turn out in presidential years, but often do not turn out in midterm elections. If we're able to mobilize these voters, I think we have a shot not just to retain the Senate but to also pick up seats. Look, the fact that Kentucky's still in play for the Democrats, Georgia is in play, I was in Georgia two weeks ago, I was in Colorado last week, I've been home more times than I can count, I believe we're going to do a great job. Here's one thing, Dana, that people are not thinking. The Republicans spent well over -- and Doug knows this -- they spent well over $130 million to defeat these so-called Tea Party candidates. You know what? We learned a lot about how to defeat the Republicans who eventually became victorious.</s>BASH: Doug, I don't want to bring up a sore subject, but you also just recently, until recently worked for a Republican, who -- the leader, Eric Cantor, who was beaten by a Tea Party candidate.</s>DOUG HEYE, GOP STRATEGIST: How about that? Yeah, I remember that.</s>BASH: You remember that. But what I want to ask you about is does Donna have a point? In that you, your party, has seen the prize for two straight elections.</s>HEYE: Yes.</s>BASH: And you have, you know, that prize has escaped you for various reasons. Is there a problem for Republicans in being overconfident that you could take the Senate?</s>HEYE: I don't think so yet. I think one of the advantages we have this time, frankly, we don't have some of the clown college candidates we had in the last two cycles. We left -- I mean, (inaudible) about it. We left points on the board in Delaware, in Nevada, in Indiana, seats that we should have won, seats that should have been no brainers for us, we lost, because we had terrible candidates who couldn't muster any kind of a real campaign. We don't have that in the Senate races this time, and that's something that we've got that's really going to be an advantage for us moving forward.</s>BASH: Jonathan, how do you see it?</s>JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN INSIDE POLITICS CONTRIBUTOR: I think the math this time around works for the Republicans, the math favors them, as you laid it out, Dana, on that screen. What gives Democrats some heart though is the fact that here we are on Labor Day, and unlike 2010, there's no race of the ones you showed on the screen that really seems out of hand for an incumbent Democratic senator. Yes, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia are probably gone for Democrats. But in terms of the incumbent Democrats, they're all still in this game right now. All of them are still alive. This really feels like a fluid election. I talked to a lot of strategists on both sides of the aisle. They all said the same thing, this does not feel like 2010 or 2006.</s>BASH: There's no way.</s>MARTIN: You don't feel that kind of wave. It's more of a trench warfare kind of year. Both sides, a lot of money, a lot of tough attacks. Probably will come down to if Democrats can get their non- midterm voters out. That's really the issue.</s>BASH: So let's talk about that. President Obama is not on the ballot, but President Obama, of course, is unofficially on the ballot. We all know that. He is in Milwaukee today spending time with union leaders. But he's essentially flying solo. Here's the irony of all ironies. He was met by the Republican Governor, Scott Walker, but the Democratic candidate for governor in that state, she was nowhere to be found, which is I think Scott Walker did that on purpose to show that. How much of a liability still is the president?</s>BRAZILE: I wouldn't -- let me just say this. I think I'm in a good position, because I've run a campaign when you had a sitting president of the United States, you use him strategically. This was an official campaign. This was not a rally trip. This was an official trip to Wisconsin. And I'm sure that the president will talk to Ms. Burke, and I'm sure that the Democrats will help her win. He's not going to be on the ballot this fall. These Democrats have to establish their own record with voters because voters need to know what they stand for. They know President Obama, they've made a position. And you know what? President Obama would see the bottom if the congressional Republicans were not standing in the way. They're more unpopular than anybody right now.</s>BASH: Doug, I was just in Kentucky, and President Obama very much is -- a very much a part of the discussion down there. Mitch McConnell, the Republican senator and candidate, is making him part of the discussion. But for voters, he's part of the discussion. People are very invested in what happens, pro or con, in what happens in his last two years.</s>HEYE: Keep in mind, in 2012, Barack Obama in Kentucky won 38 percent of the vote. 37 percent of the vote in Arkansas, with two key Senate races. In Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democratic candidate, is distancing herself so far that she's saying I haven't even talked to Barack Obama. Which is frankly more than she said about Obamacare. She won't answer questions about whether or not she would vote for it, which is really telling in that race.</s>BRAZILE: Mitch McConnell is not popular. He still has to fight like hell.</s>BASH: But Grimes is coming (ph) up (ph) there too, in terms of unpopularity. What's your take?</s>MARTIN: President Obama is a serious handicap for Democrats in a lot of this country. However, the irony is, Democrats have to have his voters, otherwise, they can't win. The challenge for Democrats is how do they get the Obama voters out, while trying to appeal to swing voters who are soured on Obama. That's the crux of their challenge.</s>BRAZILE: The Republicans will help us with that, because this notion of suing the president on what I call impeachment lite, that will motivate Democrats to get out and vote.</s>BASH: Donna Brazile, Doug Heye, Jonathan Martin, thank you especially for coming out on Labor Day. Happy Labor Day to you. Coming up on the money lead, it's like doing the time even if you didn't do the crime. How a law designed to punish criminals by seizing their homes is leaving innocent families out on the street. And later in the pop lead, nude photos of celebrities getting leaked on the Internet. And this hack job may even be terrifying, and it's easy to pull off thanks to a glitch in Apple's software. What you need to know to protect your private data.