Should Americans Pay Attention to Polls; Carson, Rubio Win Hypothetical Vote Against Hillary Clinton.
BOLDUAN: Starting to get exciting, folks. Republican presidential candidates are getting ready to rumble once again as they head into tonight's big CNN debate at the Venetian in Las Vegas. Before we get there, we, of course, have to see where they stand. What are the latest numbers? What are the latest standings? A brand new NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll shows Donald Trump is holding the lead at 27 percent. Ted Cruz surging, though, to a close second, now only five points behind the front runner. Rubio third, and Ben Carson taking a nose dive, from 29 percent in October, now down to 11. Jeb Bush in single digits, rounding out the top five at 7 percent. Here to weigh in on all of this ahead of the big debate, former communications director for the Democratic National Committee, Brad Woodhouse; and Republican pollster and the author of "The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America and How Republicans Can Keep Up," Kristen Soltis Anderson. Love the title of your book, Kristen. Love to plug it. Great to see both of you. I gave you guys the top line from the NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll. But, Kristen, it's not just that one. Take a look at the CBS/"New York Times" poll, the latest CNN polling, 35 percent, 36 percent for Donald Trump. But then there's this. You start to hear from some Republicans they don't even believe the polls anymore because they don't believe that what is going on in it is Republican field. This is a question that you've actually explored, a Republican pollster yourself. Why are some folks saying they don't even believe the polls now?</s>KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER & AUTHOR: I think it's important to take polls with a little grain of salt, at least be a thoughtful consumer of them. Not all polls are created the same. Some polls are done vigorously and others less so. I think when people are looking at these polls, what they need to bear in mind is that on election day, not everyone who's a registered voter will vote. Not everyone with a reasonably good track record will turn out in something like the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary. When we're taking a look at a poll, are we taking a look at really the people who are show up that day or are we casting a wider net? It's fine to cast a wider net because, say, Donald Trump brings new people into the process, energizes new voters, but the thing is we can't know that until Election Day. I always caution people, it's not that the polls are garbage, but we should be a little more thoughtful and cautious about how predictive we think the polls really are.</s>BOLDUAN: You sure hope they aren't garbage because they cost a whole lot of money to conduct a poll.</s>BRAD WOODHOUSE, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE: They sure do.</s>BOLDUAN: Exactly. Brad, do you believe the polls?</s>WOODHOUSE: I do think there's a lot in the Republican establishment, a lot of people in the Republican establishment that don't want to believe these polls.</s>BOLDUAN: Want to believe the poll is the operative word.</s>WOODHOUSE: They fear a Donald Trump candidacy for whatever reason. Look, I think Kristen is right. No poll is completely predictive. I think there's something you learn about trends in polls. There is a definite trend of Ted Cruz moving up in the polls, Ben Carson moving down in the polls, kind of steady as you go Donald Trump, but I think what the polls really tell you is two people at the top right now, in New Hampshire, in Iowa and nationally, happen to be the two the most extreme, pushing the buttons of the Republican base, that are anti- immigrant, anti-Muslim, anti-women's choice in health care. So I think that trend is probably more important about what it portends for the general election than who's going to win the Republican primary.</s>BOLDUAN: That trend is more important for the Democrats and how they're going to focus come the general election, I think we can say.</s>WOODHOUSE: True.</s>BOLDUAN: You said you also think they can show trends, brad. I think we should just walk down that path and talk about the things you love to hate the most. You do this to me every time I bring it up. That's why I'm bringing it up with you. Let's look at the hypothetical head-to-heads of Hillary Clinton and the Republican candidates. There's nothing that you as a Democrat are going to hate when you see Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in the hypothetical head-to-head beating Ted Cruz in the head-to-head. What is going on with Clinton losing to Carson and Rubio in the head-to- heads?</s>WOODHOUSE: Well, look, I'm back with Kristen here. It's like these polls, the quality of them, you know, I can't speak for, but the truth is we're going to have a close general election. Apparently there are people in the general electorate that don't believe Trump is a serious candidate. All of those other results are within the margin of error, her beating Cruz and Rubio, and Carson beating her. So, I think what it is predictive is we'll have a close general election like we've seen the past presidential cycles.</s>BOLDUAN: Kristen, given all of this, what are you really looking out for in tomorrow's debate? Do you think someone can have a breakout performance? Is this the last time, especially for the folks on the undercard debate, they have to break out or it's over for them?</s>SOLTIS ANDERSON: It's going to be very important for the folks in the undercard debate to try to have a moment. It feels like the field is beginning to clarify itself. We're beginning to see this clearer top tier that is staying a little more consistent. You're seeing variation within it. Carson was up, now he's down. You're seeing this top five that sort of solidified. What I'm looking for is, how does Ted Cruz handle the other folks on the stage, particularly Donald Trump? You'll notice in those head-to-head match-ups Ted Cruz falls between Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by ten and folks like Rubio who are doing pretty well. Ted Cruz has been notably kind of quiet on the subject of Donald Trump, saying is he going to give him a bear hug. I think the question for Ted Cruz is, is he going to try to so far hug Donald Trump so much that he wins Iowa but then jeopardizes himself in the general election. That's what I, as a Republican, is watching for.</s>BOLDUAN: Nuance is tough, in cable tv and in politics. How can you attack without actually attacking? Let's see if Ted Cruz can thread that needle tomorrow night for sure. We'll be watching together. Brad, it's great to see you. Kristen, thank you.</s>SOLTIS ANDERSON: Thank you.</s>WOODHOUSE: Thank you.</s>BOLDUAN: You can watch along with all of us the final GOP debate of 2015 only here on CNN. It starts tomorrow night, 6:00 p.m. eastern live in Las Vegas. Let's head right back out there to John.</s>BERMAN: Only 30 more hours and 14 minutes to wait, Kate. Such an important debate, the discussion on national security. And these words today, "a recruitment poster for ISIS," that is what one governor called Donald Trump. With national security front and center here, we will discuss that, and what it means, what it means for Trump and how he will battle his rivals on the issue of terror. And happening right now, President Obama with a rare trip to the Pentagon, reviewing his strategy against ISIS abroad, also here at home. We'll bring you his remarks live.