Ohio the Deciding Factor in Election 2004
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: For the second election in a row, the long night turning into a long morning in a race that's too close to call for now. But this is not the year 2000.</s>ANDREW CARD, CHIEF OF STAFF: We are convinced that president bush has won re-election with at least 286 electoral college votes.</s>SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been a long night, but we waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.</s>HEMMER: This morning, George W. Bush wins a clear majority of the electoral map leaning in his favor, but there's still Ohio hanging in the balance. That's where John Kerry is pinning all of his presidential hopes on this</s>AMERICAN MORNING. ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.</s>HEMMER: Good morning, everyone, from New York City. 7:00 in the morning. It's been a very long night for all of our colleagues here at CNN. I'm Bill Hemmer in New York. Soledad O'Brien well on her way to Columbus, Ohio. She has arrived there, and good morning, Soledad, as the sun comes up today.</s>SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you -- yes, it does. Good morning to you, Bill. Greetings from the State House in Columbus, Ohio. Republicans may be feeling very victorious this morning, but technically the election still hangs in the balance due to Ohio. It appears, in fact, that Ohio is the Florida of the 2004 election. This is the issue: the number of provisional ballots. Senator Kerry is banking on that. And at this point, only that to swing this election in his direction. Up for grabs, we're talking about the 20 electoral votes out of Ohio. Ninety-nine percent of the precincts here now reporting across 88 counties, but a relatively slim margin of victory. The big question, of course, is the provisional ballots. How many do exist in this state, and what percentage of those belong to Senator Kerry? Where it stands right now, 254 electoral votes for President Bush, 252 to Senator Kerry. Seventy-eight out of the 88 counties are now reporting the number of provisional ballots that they have. That number is 135,000. That leaves 10 counties now that have not reported their number. Remember, again, the difference -- the margin between the two men is 145,000 votes -- a very slim margin. And of course, the question is: Can Senator Kerry turn it around in the State of Ohio -- Bill?</s>HEMMER: Soledad, thanks. We'll be back with you in Columbus throughout the day here as we continue to go into this morning hour here. But at this point, there is no president, no one declared a winner officially. President Bush has won a clear majority this time around, getting 58 million votes, winning the popular vote by three percentage points. But Republicans also ran the table when it came to the Senate and also the House. We're going to get reports now from Suzanne Malveaux on the front lawn of the White House. Also, Kelly Wallace is in Boston, Massachusetts, tracking the Kerry campaign. Let's start at the White House, Suzanne. After this very, very, very long night now into the morning, what is the position for the White House on this election?</s>SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning, Bill. It is a full lid here at the White House -- that is White House speak for it is time for a break. It is time for the president to take a nap. We're told at 9:00 that is when senior administration officials will reconvene to try to figure out what to do next. We are told that the president is going to address the American people later today, that he's going to declare victory. They are giving Kerry what they say is a break to reflect on these results out of respect to him and his candidacy. But they say they want this whole thing done and over with by the end of the day. Now, it was early this morning, about 5:30 in the morning -- that is when the president's chief of staff, Andy Card, went to the Ronald Reagan Building to address the thousands of people who were waiting for the president overnight to declare victory. He made the point of the administration very clear, saying that the president believes that they have the 286 electoral votes for a victory, that he has a three-and-a-half million margin of a popular vote, that this that this is a decisive margin of victory. They believe that this is statistically insurmountable, this 140,000-vote lead that the president has in Ohio. They're claiming victory in that state, as well.</s>CARD: In Ohio, President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable, even after the provisional ballots are considered. So, President Bush has won the State of Ohio.</s>MALVEAUX: Now, Bill, what started off as really kind of a Bush family reunion here at the White House, the president gathered with his parents, as well as about 25 to 30 close family and friends at the residence, quickly turned into a high-powered strategy session. His chief political advisor, Karl Rove, of course, making phone calls, passing notes to the president. The president asking just what was happening. Initially, the plan was the president would go to the Ronald Reagan Building himself and address many of those fans. But they felt that they wanted to make sure it was legitimate and they would simply wait until Kerry would concede.</s>HEMMER: Try and clarify that last point here. If the White House believes Ohio is there, that puts them over 270 electoral college count. If that's the case, why will they not declare victory?</s>MALVEAUX: Well, Bill, this is very simple. It's the fact that they remember four years ago essentially that a lot of people did not believe that his win was a legitimate win. They want to make absolutely sure that everybody is convinced that Kerry comes out and concedes this election. That he says he does not have the support, does not have the votes to win. They also realize they have to work with the Democrats here. This is an administration that really wants to mend fences, wants to unite this country, and they believe if they just hold off a little longer and make it perfectly clear that the president is the winner that they'll succeed in doing that.</s>HEMMER: All right, Suzanne. Thanks. Let's get to the Kerry campaign now. Reaction with Kelly Wallace there. Kelly, what are they saying there in Boston?</s>KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, I talked to a top advisor to Senator Kerry just a short time ago. And he says the campaign wants to look at the real numbers -- the real number of provisional ballots, the real actual vote margin between President Bush and Senator Kerry. This advisor telling me, quote, "We're going to have to look very carefully at the situation to see what are the realistic prospects of Ohio turning around." This advisor saying, "That's the assessment the senator has to make, look at it very carefully and make a decision." The advisor saying, "We won't make it a mystery too long." This has been an incredible 24 hours for the Kerry campaign. Aides starting off very confident yesterday, getting even more confident as they looked at some of that exit polling in the afternoon. But that confidence by evening time turning into confusion and concern.</s>EDWARDS: It's been a long night, but we've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night. John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that, in this election, every vote would count and every vote would be counted.</s>WALLACE: The senator never mentioned Ohio, but that's Camp Kerry's focus. In a statement, Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill said, "There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are, John Kerry will win Ohio." Senator Kerry remained out of sight, huddled inside his Boston townhouse with his family and staff. The dramatic developments following a day where the senator's advisors, looking at exit polling, had an air of confidence.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We remain encouraged.</s>WALLACE: Senator Kerry, however, kept to his motto of taking nothing for granted, spending four hours doing 38 interviews with television stations in battleground states, including New Mexico.</s>SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, it isn't over yet. I'm still working. I'm still asking people to go out and vote.</s>WALLACE: In recent days, the senator told reporter he expected the election to be resolved last night. Yesterday, after casting his ballot, he told reporters no matter the outcome he was hopeful.</s>KERRY: We will move forward no matter what, because that's who we are as Americans and that's what we need to do.</s>WALLACE (on camera): And a top advisor saying that campaign aides would be gathering this morning. We're not -- expect to hear anything official from this campaign until 10:00 a.m. local time at the earliest -- Bill?</s>HEMMER: Let me try and clarify one thing you said earlier, Kelly. You said that an advisor told you, "We will not make this a mystery too long." Was there a timeframe placed on that? Or what -- how do we define that?</s>WALLACE: Well, you know, this advisor again also saying they would be getting together this morning at 10:00 a.m. But the advisor stressing, Bill, they're going to look at the numbers. And if they look at the numbers and feel there is no realistic way Senator Kerry can turn this around and take Ohio away, well then the senator is likely to make that assessment and make a decision from there. Again, this advisor saying they're going to look at those numbers. They're not going to keep everyone hanging, but they first want to look at the numbers, and the senator then has to make his own assessment.</s>HEMMER: Don't go far there in Boston. Come back and tell us whenever you get it, OK? Trying to gauge a lot of reaction right now about where we stand on this. A bit earlier today, I talked with the Bush campaign chairman, Marc Racicot. He explained his perspective on the current state of the election. Listen here.</s>MARC RACICOT, BUSH-CHENEY CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Well, we believe that we have won the state of Ohio and that we've won the electoral college with at least 286 votes. So, the president has received, we know for a fact the highest number of popular votes every for any president who's ever been elected. And so, we also have taken a look at the mathematics of the situation. We know there are about 140 or 145,000 potential ballots, provisional ballots. And we also know that the margin between the president and John Kerry is about 140,000 votes. And based upon experience, Bill, in Illinois, for instance, where they had provisional balloting, ultimately only 17 percent of those provisional ballots were from registered voters who were authorized to vote. So if you apply those percentages you realize in Chicago it was only 7 percent, that there's just a mathematical impossibility here almost to change the verdict in Ohio.</s>HEMMER: You say an impossibility?</s>RACICOT: Well, you'd have to get 94 percent of the votes, 94 percent of those provisional ballots would have to be for John Kerry in order to be successful.</s>HEMMER: We'll now read you what the Kerry campaign is saying. Mary Beth Cahill says, "the vote count in Ohio has not been completed." She continues, "there are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted. We believe when they are John Kerry will win Ohio." Do you dispute that figure, that 250,000 figure?</s>RACICOT: Well, I think that may be a dated statement. I don't know if it's of recent vintage or not, but the count that we have received from the secretary of state's office this morning is in the neighborhood of 140 or 145,000 provisional ballots. And obviously that's the universe that we're aware of at this point in time. Where she got that figure, I couldn't account for that.</s>HEMMER: OK, if you believe, and Andy Card said this about, I don't know. It was about 5:00 this morning -- losing track of time here --. If you believe Ohio is in your category, then that would give you the required amount of electoral votes needed to win the White House for another four years. Why hasn't the White House, why hasn't the president claimed victory?</s>RACICOT: Well, I think he's trying to extend the appropriate courtesies and to be gracious under the circumstances and to allow the opportunity for the Kerry campaign in the cold, hard light of day to take a look at the situation and to come to a conclusion. Sometimes you're just overcome by the facts. It's not easy and he recognizes that. But catching their breath, taking a look. You know, when they made the statement last night you still had on the board a number of different states. Those states have now been resolved. And a consequence of that my belief is when they look at it this morning, they'll come to that realistic impression.</s>HEMMER: Do you know, Governor, has there been any contact between these two campaigns?</s>RACICOT: Not that I am aware of. Everything started unfolding so late. We were at campaign headquarters, of course, all night. And I'm not aware of any communications that went back and forth. When Senator Edwards came down to make his statement that pretty much, I think, precluded any further conversations throughout the course of the night. I could be mistaken, but that's my understanding.</s>HEMMER: I have about 15 seconds left here. Why do you believe, it's quite possible now if Ohio goes into your column officially, the Republicans will have run the table in 2004. Why do you believe that's the case?</s>RACICOT: I believe that the people in this country, even though we're in perilous times, believe in the president. He laid out a positive agenda. He worked hard. He took his case to them and they believe in him. And I think the Republican Congress has shown great progress at the same moment in time. And as a consequence they invested their confidence there, too.</s>HEMMER: Marc Racicot from a few moments ago. He also indicates that in the final closing days, 1.4 million volunteers contacted more than 18 million voters across the country. He believed that get-out-the-vote effort paid off in big dividends yesterday for the Bush team. The Kerry campaign, in contact with them today, declining an offer, at this point, for an interview, but we'll try to work that again throughout the morning as we continue. Want to go back to Columbus, Ohio, right now, at the heart of it all yet again. Here's Soledad there.</s>O'BRIEN: And still to come, Bill, this morning, President Bush's win in the popular vote a real turnaround from back in 2000. Bill Schneider's going to take a look at the reasons behind that this morning. Also, there's already a lawsuit challenging Ohio's standard for provisional ballots. Will it really be a factor today? We'll explain what this is all about and what we know with Jeff Toobin in a moment. Also in a moment, we'll talk to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist about the election, about the Republicans' tighter grip on Congress, as we continue on the day after on this AMERICAN MORNING.</s>O'BRIEN: Here's where the vote in Ohio stands right now. Even with 100 percent of the precincts now reporting, it is still too close to call. President Bush is leading senator Kerry by 136,221 votes. There are, we're told, are at least 135,000 provisional ballots that are still unaccounted. That is not going to happen today. Here is Ken Blackwell. He is the state's secretary of state.</s>KENNETH BLACKWELL (R), OHIO SECY. OF STATE: Everybody should just take a deep breath and relax, because we're not going to start counting those ballots until the 11th day after this election.</s>O'BRIEN: So the big question here, of course, as we can hear from Ken Blackwell, how many of these provisional ballots actually exist. That number right now was about 78 out of the 88 precincts reporting, say somewhere around 135,000 provisional ballots exist. That's before they're actually counted, before they know which direction the vote goes. So lots to sort through this morning, at least here in Ohio -- Bill.</s>HEMMER: All right, Soledad, I want to look at Congress, too. Republicans retain control of the House and the Senate, picking up a number of seats in both chambers last night. One of the biggest coups, the defeat of Tom Daschle of South Dakota. I want to talk about that now with the Republican Bill Frist, a majority leader, live on Capitol Hill today. And Senator, welcome, and good morning to you. Before I talk about what's happening in the Senate and also in the House, what is your position right now on what the White House is saying about its stake in Ohio, and saying it's essentially won the 20 electoral votes there?</s>SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN), SENATE MAJORITY LEADER: Well, Bill, I obviously agree with the White House. And I think it is appropriate for the president to wait and have Senator Kerry respond and to think about the obvious mathematical relationship between the number of provisional ballots out there and what the break his way. And hopefully over the course of the day Senator Kerry will recognize there is no way that those electoral votes will go into their column.</s>HEMMER: So you don't believe John Kerry can win, is what you're saying?</s>FRIST: No, I think not. What we're seeing now is a little bit of reaction to four years ago, and there are a lot of lawyers there and a lot of them giving him and his campaign advice. And he, appropriately, is listening. But I think over the course of the day, or at least I hope over the course of the day, the obvious reality will become apparent to him and that they will go ahead and concede.</s>HEMMER: Do you believe this is a legal decision or a political one?</s>FRIST: Well, it's a little bit of both. I think the fact that there are hundreds and hundreds of lawyers in Ohio today that are giving advice plays a large part of it. But, again, I think the president is appropriately responding by saying, well, there's no huge hurry on our part, and go ahead and take what time you need, Senator Kerry, to be satisfied that I, the president, has won.</s>HEMMER: Why do you believe it appears at this point that Republicans were so successful in 2004 yesterday?</s>FRIST: Well, it really is monumental. As you mentioned, in the United States Senate, we had 51 Republican majority, 51 seats. We're now -- we will likely have 55 Republican seats by the end of today. Nobody expected that. It is huge. House of Representatives picked up at least three seats as of this morning. And the president has received more popular votes than in the history of any president in this country. I think it demonstrates a really endorsement of the direction in very challenging times, in difficult times, that this president has taken and that this president has demonstrated working with this Congress, both the House and the Senate, in endorsement by the American people that you're moving in the right direction when it comes to security and safety and more on terror, prescription drugs, and education. All of those issues which mean most to individuals, Republicans have addressed with solutions. And this is an endorsement of this direction.</s>HEMMER: Would you give that same answer, Senator -- and explain why Tom Daschle was defeated?</s>FRIST: Well, I would in a way because I think what we've seen is -- I don't know if you want to call it a mandate -- but a huge endorsement of the president of the United States, of the strong leadership, the basic values. And I think that South Dakota, as we all know, is a state that is strongly in support of President George W. Bush. Yet Senator Daschle, in his position of being Democratic leader on the floor of the United States Senate, had as his goal, to slow down, to obstruct, to stop that agenda. So, South Dakotans, clearly believing in President Bush, wanted their representative to be someone more like President Bush. And clearly John Thune is just that.</s>HEMMER: Let me get your take on this. And there's a lot of debate today -- and it really started yesterday afternoon -- about what really swung this election. I know you're on the record for saying what you just did. Where do you weigh in on the values issue? In the values question?</s>FRIST: Big, big, big.</s>HEMMER: How so?</s>FRIST: It's huge. Well, you can look at it in a lot of things, which you, or most of you in the media haven't even started talking about -- the fact that there were 11 states yesterday who had marriage or the definition of marriage being a union between a man and a woman, the fact that it was on 11 ballots yesterday, and all 11 ballots were successful. Again, it's not talked about, the fact that basic values around life issues. It could be the partial birth abortion ban that we passed or the Laci Peterson -- the Unborn Victims of Violence Act. This value of life, all of which is important to real people all across America. And I think that that did play, not necessarily a dominant role, but a very powerful role in these elections.</s>HEMMER: Senator, thanks for your time. Bill Frist, Senate majority leader -- now 55 it appears to be the lead for Republicans in that chamber of Congress. Senator, thanks.</s>FRIST: Good to be with you, Bill.</s>HEMMER: Let's get a break here. In a moment, here we go again, or do we? Why are we looking at yet another extended election? Bill Schneider's been up all night. He's sitting right here. We'll talk to Bill in a moment, his thoughts reflecting the day after, after this.</s>HEMMER: The estimates on voter turnout staggering, upwards of 120 million Americans went to the polls yesterday. The question today, though, is this: How did we get here from there? Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider now checks in on some thoughts on how election 2004 is playing out. Good morning.</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.</s>HEMMER: Good night. Good afternoon. You haven't gone to bed. I slept for 30 minutes. You heard me talk to Bill Frist about the values issue. You think that is critical -- why?</s>SCHNEIDER: Absolutely. The exit polling showed that was the number one issue to voters. What the Republicans did and the Bush campaign did was really use the value issue to mobilize their base, just as Senator Frist just said. Embryonic stem-cell research, same-sex marriage, partial-birth abortion -- those issues got a lot of white evangelical Christians out to vote in very large numbers, up from where they were four years ago. It really rallied them, and it turned out to be a dominant issue in this election. And it's going to mean that the divisiveness of this election, all those painful divisions, are going to be hard to set aside, because this was a very divisive strategy.</s>HEMMER: Early in the evening last night, you had some numbers, some surveys done, exit polling, trying to find out what was the critical issue. Was it Iraq? Was it the economy? Was it terrorism? Was it national security? Of all those, how did they fit in to what voters were saying and voting for yesterday?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, values was the critical issue. That turned out the rally the conservative base. The president did not do well because of the Iraq issue. In fact, he did well despite the Iraq issue. People do not think things are going well in Iraq, and people who were concerned about Iraq voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry. The economy didn't pay off for the president. The issues that paid off for him were terrorism and values. He ran to make it a referendum on terrorism, we knew that. That was his issue. What was the big surprise was how many voters came out to make a statement about values, particularly rural voters and voters outside the major metropolitan areas. They came out in huge numbers, even matching and overwhelming the heavy Democratic turnout.</s>HEMMER: Now, specifically in Ohio, CNN did not make a call on this. The numbers were just too tight to figure everything out, based on the information we were taking in and based on what we knew from the history of the State of Ohio. Earlier in the night, though, there were some exit polling, and there's been some criticism about this. What have you been able to find out as to whether or not that exit polling was accurate or not?</s>SCHNEIDER: The exit polling was not accurate. And I urged my colleagues, and they abided by this, not to take the exit polling as a prediction of what would happen. The exit polling wasn't far off. It showed a three- or four-point margin for Kerry when, in fact, it turned out to be about a three-point margin for Bush in the popular vote so far. What happened was the exit polling got out over the Internet. It was absorbed and talked about on talk shows all over the country, and it became a reality. And it became a reality that started to drive the last day of the campaign. So, the Kerry people assumed that they were going to win a big victory, that they were racking up all kinds of margins. Exit polling should not be used for that purpose. It should be used for what we just did, to analyze why people voted and what were the issues behind the vote. But not predictably -- it took on a life of its own.</s>HEMMER: All right. Don't go far, OK? It's not over yet. Thanks -- Bill Schneider. Break here. In a moment on AMERICAN MORNING, the battle brewing in Ohio today. How long will that last, though? Jeffrey Toobin stops by. The legal agenda now that we're picking up on. Back in a moment here on AMERICAN MORNING. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com