Widely Different Predictions about Virus Spread in Africa; Mexican Medical Workers Struggle to Get Protective Equipment
CURNOW: So COVID-19 cases in parts of Africa are rising fast. South Africa is the continent's hardest hit country with more than 55,000 confirmed cases. But the death rate there is far lower than what we are seeing in the U.S. or the U.K. And it's one of the reasons why experts can't seem to agree on how much the virus will affect the region. A few months ago human experts were saying there could be millions of deaths. Well now, some are saying that a surge won't ever happen in some areas. Well, this is something that David McKenzie has been investigating for us. He joins us now live from Johannesburg. Hi -- David. Just give us some understanding of why we are seeing this disconnect in the modeling?</s>DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey -- Robyn. You know, one expert I spoke to put it quite nicely. He said though it feels like we had this virus for some five years, in terms of the stress levels, it's only been around five months or so. And many people are still -- many scientists don't know much about it, don't know exactly how it will operate in different countries. So a group of African scientists have a very different take on what the consequences of COVID-19 will be across the continent.</s>MCKENZIE: As lockdowns across Africa began, health officials sounded the alarm. Frightening, severe, catastrophic -- words used to describe the continent's prospects in the pandemic fight. But that was then.</s>DR. HUMPHREY KARAMAGI, WHO TEAM LEADER: The countries in the African region are not where they have predicted that they would be by now. I think a lot of earlier predictions had painted a picture of, by this time, it would be quite overwhelming.</s>MCKENZIE: A group of leading African scientists had predicted a very different outcome. Even in the worst-case scenario, they're modeling suggests a smoldering outbreak in Africa, where many countries could avoid a deadly surge.</s>KARAMAGI: The deaths or the severity of the outbreak would be less severe than we've seen in other countries.</s>MCKENZIE: A key to their modeling work, including the socioecological factors that impact COVID-19 spread. Like weather, population movement, urbanization. Two factors stand out -- the relative youth of sub-Saharan Africa, 70 percent of people are under 30; and the lower overburden of so-called diseases of lifestyle like diabetes, obesity and hypertension. Both they believe could lessen the severity of the disease. But even if countries avoid a surge, they believe that any spikes could overwhelm weaker health systems.</s>KARAMAGI: Those are less severe outcomes that need to be balanced against the capacity of the system to respond to those outcomes.</s>DR. JOHN NKENGASONG, DIRECTOR, AFRICA CDC: Our curve is increasing and increasing quickly. So I think the virus is seeding (ph) itself into the communities and getting momentum.</s>MCKENZIE: And despite the new predictions, the head of the Africa CDC says it's far too early to be complacent. He says just five countries on the continent represent more than half the confirmed cases, and overall testing is still woefully inadequate.</s>NKENGASONG: I have characterized it as a delayed pandemic, and now we have to intensify our efforts be bold and aggressive in and putting in place probably health measure.</s>MCKENZIE: Health measures like the army of health workers in South Africa, tracing and testing for COVID. Here and like in many African countries, the cases are rising quickly. And the modeling of COVID-19's future spread will soon be tested.</s>MCKENZIE: Well Robyn -- the head of Africa CDC used a baseball analogy. In fact, you know, he after all was at Atlanta CDC before this. He said, you know, the virus came to the continent later than some other areas. He says it's only in the second innings, and there's a long way to go-- Robyn.</s>CURNOW: Maybe he should have used a cricket analogy and spoken about a five-day test if you are talking about South Africa. This might just be the first day. So let's talk about South Africa. We're both South Africans. We both know a few people who have COVID. Why -- why are cases surging there, particularly after such a -- I mean you can call draconian lockdown?</s>MCKENZIE: Well, I think the lockdown certainly shows that they were able to flatten that curve pretty effectively, according to the science. But you're right. There is a surge in level of cases now, but it was kept down in eastern Cape provinces. That surge -- in a way is the exception that proves the rule -- proves the rule say the scientists because South Africa does have a high level of those co-morbidities like diabetes and hypertension that puts it at risk. But also it's a much more urban population than large parts of the continent where there's a lot more rural populations. The thing is this virus acts differently in different places. And Africa, as you know, is a vastly diverse continent. So, they do expect those differences. They do say that on the whole, if you take the average, this continent might be better off than other places -- Robyn.</s>CURNOW: Which is great news either way. David McKenzie -- thanks so much. Good to speak to you. So, Latin America is the world's coronavirus hot spot right now. Johns Hopkins University is reporting that more than 70,000 people there have died. Brazil is accounting for more than half of that number. It's actually confirming the third highest death toll in the world after the U.S. and the U.K. Well, Shasta Darlington takes a closer look -- Shasta.</s>SHASTA DARLINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Latin America and the Caribbean surpassed 70,000 deaths from coronavirus as of Wednesday, with Mexico reporting a record daily surge in new cases. In Chile, police were deployed on the streets of Santiago to enforce lockdown measures after a spike in COVID-19 cases prompted an extension of quarantine. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro forged ahead with plans to reopen stores and even shopping malls despite warnings from the Pan American Health Organization that the virus is still spreading aggressively in the region. Officials insist the decision is based on improving conditions such as increasing availability of intensive care beds in some areas. But experts worry the rush to get back to some kind of normal and limit the financial ruin could just fuel more transmissions and postpone a real recovery. Shasta Darlington, CNN -- Sao Paulo.</s>CURNOW: Thanks -- Shasta, for that. So Mexico is seeing another surge in coronavirus cases. It reported nearly 5,000 infections on Wednesday and as paramedics are left responding to mounting number of emergency calls, CNN's Matt Rivers shows us how many, many are struggling to protect themselves.</s>MATT RIVERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They chant his name and the sirens wail. This is a tribute to Dr. Miguel Angel Perez Alvarado, a doctor who worked in a public ambulance in Mexico City. He died last month of COVID-19. For weeks, the father of three girls treated patients with the virus. "He was worried," his wife Nancy tells us, "because he knew his working conditions weren't safe." Dr. Perez told her he wasn't given the right protective equipment on the job and he's not alone. Seven paramedics and a doctor who worked in public ambulances told us the same thing. Here, one demonstrates how water can be sprayed through the coverall they've been given. Duct tape is now important. They use it to patch holes in their suits, and to tape up garbage bags to try and isolate COVID cases inside their ambulances. Speaking anonymously for fear of losing his job, this paramedic says he and his colleagues had to buy their own safety equipment. He says they are sending us into a war with nothing. You don't send a firefighter to a fire without protection. So, this is the mask that the paramedic were speaking to and says the government issued him. And you do not need to be a medical expert to understand that this does not give him the kind of protection he needs. The paramedics we spoke to work for two sections of Mexico's health ministry. Both section said all their paramedics have the required supplies -- statements that seemed to be demonstrably untrue especially when you see how it's supposed to be done. We spent the night recently with a Red Cross ambulance crew -- private volunteers who have all the right equipment and even designated COVID units. And that's a necessity because the worst of Mexico's epidemic is happening right now. On a 12 hour shift, there are 12 COVID calls. And sometimes, we were too late.</s>RIVERS: So, we got this call a little over 20 minutes ago now. And we just arrived on scene. And in that time, the 43-year-old female victim had already died of symptoms consistent with COVID-19. And arriving with patients still alive didn't always matter in the end. 72-year-old Maria Isabel Cruz Hernandez was taken from her apartment and brought straight to the hospital. Her son told us she has since passed away. After each exhausting call, trucks and paramedics are both sprayed head to toe with a special disinfectant. Paramedics and government-run unit say they try and disinfect too once again, with supplies they bought themselves. "Are you scared," we ask. "Always," he says. "You don't sleep. Scared for myself. Scared of infecting my family. And scared of ending up like Dr. Perez." Two days after he went to the hospital, he texted a final message to his wife. "He said be careful, I love you all. That was last time we spoke." Eight days later, Dr. Perez passed away. Matt Rivers, CNN -- Mexico City.</s>CURNOW: And as we struggle with this pandemic, it's not just about the health of our bodies, but also our minds. Experts say social distancing has made many people emotionally vulnerable and lonely just when they need the closeness the most. For ideas on how to stay connected, please do go to CNN.com. And still to come -- you see the signs, and here the chance to defund the police in the U.S., but how would that work? We'll take you to one American city that fired its entire police department and then started from scratch. And the results might surprise you.