Election 2000: 'Republican Establishment Would Be in a Panic' If Bush Had Lost South Carolina Primary
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: The Republican presidential hopefuls are spending this Presidents Day in Michigan where voters cast ballots in a crucial primary tomorrow. Texas Governor George W. Bush is coming off a big win in South Carolina. Bush is trying to rally core conservatives to keep the momentum going in Michigan. Arizona Senator John McCain is trying to make a comeback after his defeat in South Carolina. McCain is appealing for support among conservative Democrats and crossover voters, as well as Republicans. On the Democratic side, Bill Bradley will be taking health care during -- or talking health care, rather, during a campaign stop in New York today. Tonight, Bradley and Vice President Al Gore square off in their only New York debate before the March 7 primary. The vice president is trying to reinforce his standing among minorities, and he was met by U.S. Senate candidate Hillary Clinton before he spoke at a predominantly black church in Albany yesterday. Race and urban issues are expected to be the focus of tonight's debate at the Apollo Theater in Harlem. CNN is hosting the debate. Our live coverage begins at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, 6:00 Pacific. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader is making another run at the White House. He's scheduled to announce his candidacy today in Washington. Nader won less than one percent of the vote when he ran on the Green Party ticket in 1996. He's hoping for the Green Party nomination again, but he's facing at least three other candidates, including Jello Biafra, who is lead singer for the rock group Dead Kennedys.</s>BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: It's not often we can work the Dead Kennedys into our broadcast, but we try when we can.</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I hope not.</s>HEMMER: Here's Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, with us here in Atlanta. Let's shake down the weekend, first of all, as we look toward Michigan. It is a political game of momentum right now. And after an 11-point victory in South Carolina, George W. Bush clearly has that momentum at this point, anyway, but it is Monday.</s>SCHNEIDER: He has the momentum, he's a big winner, and he can thank one group in particular for that big victory in South Carolina, and that's the religious right, which voted for him nearly three to one over John McCain. The non-religious right voters in South Carolina voted narrowly for John McCain. If it had not been for the religious right, South Carolina would have been a very different story, and the future of the Republican Party might have been very different. Can you imagine if Bush had lost South Carolina? The Republican establishment would be in a panic right now.</s>HEMMER: Let's talk about John McCain when we look at this right now. Some have suggested that his message has become confused. Won in New Hampshire; a different track in South Carolina. What are we reading and seeing from John McCain now as he tries to regroup before the primary tomorrow?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, he's trying to do something that's very different and very difficult. In fact, it's never been done before. No candidate has ever won a political party's nomination by relying on the support of outsiders, and that is exactly what McCain is doing. He's relying on Independents and Democrats to come into the Republican primaries and save him. He says he wants to open up the GOP, to reform it and to reach out to the center. In fact, he says President Clinton is his model, what Clinton did for the Democrats. He wants to Clintonize the Republican Party? No wonder conservatives have shut him out.</s>HEMMER: Let's talk about the Democrats now. Slowly, they're coming back on radar after disappearing what it seemed to be for quite some time. Al Gore and Bill Bradley will debate tonight in Harlem, New York City. What's the read right now on the Democratic race?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, they sort of faded for a while. They don't have any primaries that count until March 7. But, you know, Al Gore did an interesting double twist last week. First, on Thursday, he met with labor leaders and promised them that, when he's president, any trade deal he negotiates will have strong environmental and labor protections, which is what labor wanted to hear. But then a business group got angry and said, wait a minute. Is he abandoning the trade deal that President Clinton negotiated to allow China to come into the World Trade Organization? So he wrote a letter to the business leaders saying, no, no, he supports that deal even though it doesn't have strong labor and environmental protections, which is exactly what business wanted to hear? Are you sensing a theme here?</s>HEMMER: Yes, I can hear it loud and clear. It's going to be interesting tomorrow. Bill Schneider, thanks for coming in.</s>SCHNEIDER: Sure.</s>HEMMER: Arizona and Michigan tomorrow. March 7 the big primary coming up in about two weeks time. Also, stay with CNN for the very latest on election 2000. And for more coverage, log onto our Web site. Again, the address: cnn.com/election 2000.