For a sense of the broader landscape in this year's midterms, NPR's Melissa Block talks to political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report.
MELISSA BLOCK, host: Now for a sense of the broader landscape in this year's midterms, we're joined by political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report. Thanks for being with us.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): My pleasure.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: We were just hearing about Dina Titus' race there in Nevada, one vulnerable incumbent Democrat, what's your latest projection for likely Republican gains overall in House races now?</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): Well, it's going to be a big Republican year. We don't know exactly how big. We very recently changed our target to Republican gains of 40 to 50 seats with larger gains possible. That's just over what Republicans need. They need to net 39 seats. So it's up to the Democrats now in the final couple weeks to change the dynamic so that they can keep that at the very low end of that range and possibly below the range. Thirty-nine is the key number.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: That's the magic number. And the total number of races that you consider competitive that you're looking at this year, you have so many to keep track of. It's way beyond other years.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): We now have 100 races that we're watching or trying to watch. And this is remarkable, really double what we've been seeing in most elections. And the number has grown dramatically as we look back a year ago, you know, we were talking about 50, 55 races. So the number has really exploded.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: And of those 100 competitive races, those are seats, currently 91 of them held by Democrats, nine by Republicans, so you can see where the balance is right now.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): Right. That shows you, though, the landscape is tilted very strongly toward the Republicans. This is overwhelmingly Democratic open seats and Democratic incumbents. And it's a wide array of Democratic incumbents. Long-term incumbents, people who were elected the last election or two, people in the South - even the northeast there are some Democratic seats worth watching. So it's a very different year than 2006 or 2008.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: And how surprised would you be if Republicans did not end up gaining control of the House on November 2nd?</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): I'd be surprised because I think the odds are greater than 50/50 that they will win the House. No matter what happens, Capitol Hill Capitol Hill will be very different in 2011. The Obama administration will be dealing with a very, very different Congress.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: Well, let's switch over and talk about the Senate races now. Fifty-nine Democrats currently, that includes two senators who caucus with the Democrats, 41 Republicans. So Republicans would need to pick up 10 seats to take control of the Senate. How is the math lining up there?</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): Ten seems like a little too tough a haul at the moment for Republicans. There are 10 or 11 Democratic seats in play. But they get harder and harder, the ones that would put Republicans over the line. The good news for the Republicans is that they're in pretty good shape now to hold all of their seats, their open seats and their Republican incumbents.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): So, again, the focus is primarily on Democratic seats and some Democratic seats are almost certain to fall. Really this fight for the Senate's going to come down to places like Washington, Nevada, Colorado and California, and maybe Connecticut.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): So in these races, at the moment, it looks like the Democrats can win enough of them to maintain control of the Senate. But it's certainly worth watching over the next two weeks.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: Is there a race out there that you think could actually be a big surprise on November 2nd, where maybe the polling is unreliable or just isn't really capturing what's going on in that state?</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): Well, if we do our job, there shouldn't be those. But I'm telling you that I'm haunted particularly in the House. This is the kind of election where you have a real surge, a political wave, where you miss races because incumbents who are presumed to be safe suddenly find themselves in battle.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): So I'm worried that there are races out there that we're not focused on because we're making assumptions that during a normal cycle would be reasonable, that this cycle just prove not to be the case.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): But I really can't tell you what they are because if it's really a surprise, then I don't know about it. And if it's something that I've been following, then it's not really a surprise.</s>MELISSA BLOCK, host: Okay. Stuart Rothenberg with the Rothenberg Political Report, thanks very much.</s>Mr. STUART ROTHENBERG (Editor and Publisher, Rothenberg Political Report): Sure. Pleasure.