CNN Poll: Trump, Carson Break Away from Pack; Biden Meets Top Advisers Ahead of Presidential Decision; Hacker Talks About Breaching Personal E-mail of Government Officials.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: A brand-new CNN/ORC poll shows Donald Trump and Ben Carson well ahead of the pack.</s>JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Donald Trump is not a serious candidate as it relates to foreign policy.</s>JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm the late Joe Biden.</s>DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: If he doesn't run, that would be more of a surprise than if he does.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ben Carson is a common sense kind of person.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump has been the greatest help to the Republican Party.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can't have open borders in a welfare state. That's absolutely true.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Shocking hack into the personal e-mail accounts of CIA Director John Brendan.</s>EVAN PEREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Not classified, but it's very embarrassing for this to have happened.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If this is true, how difficult would you say it is?</s>ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.</s>CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Tuesday, October 20, 6 a.m. in the East. "We want an outsider in the White House." That is the message, loud and clear from Republican voters in a brand-new CNN/ORC poll this morning. This is the new normal for the GOP. Nearly half of Republicans throwing their support behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Trump leads Carson 27-22, as you see on your screen. The next candidates are all at least 14 points back, close to statistically insignificant. And here's a big brow raiser for you: Trump's lead over Carson is now just outside the margin of error.</s>CAMEROTA: Carson getting an eight-point surge in just the last month. And look at Carly Fiorina's numbers. Her post-debate bump has evaporated. She's back in the lower tier with just 4 percent. Also 75 percent of Republican voters say they are satisfied with the GOP field, and that compares to 70 percent of Democratic voters in yesterday's poll who say that they are satisfied. So the anti-establishment sentiment, though, among Republican voters is apparently reaching peak levels. CNN senior political reporter Sara Murray joins us live now from Greenville, South Carolina, to dig into all of the numbers for us. Sara, what do you see?</s>SARA MURRAY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, it's really interesting when you go beyond the top line, because this huge Republican field, while at times can look chaotic, but it does look like it's driving some enthusiasm among -- among Republicans. If you look at how enthusiastic voters are for voting for president, 68 percent of Republicans say they're enthusiastic, compared to 58 percent for Democrats. That's a pretty wide gap. And it just keeps going up the further we get closer to the election. If you look back in September, the enthusiasm number for Republicans was 65 percent. So it does seem like a big field could ultimately benefit the Republicans. Now, I want to dig in on sort of the gender gap we've been looking at amongst some of these Republican candidates. We talked for a while about whether Trump might struggle with women because of some of the more inflammatory comments he's made about them. That doesn't bear out in our latest numbers. Both Trump and Ben Carson are drawing 23 percent support for women. They're ahead of the pack there. But if you look at the men, it's a really interesting story there, because Trump has a wide lead in Carson. Thirty-one percent of male Republican voters say that they would prefer Trump, a 10-point lead over Ben Carson. That certainly seems to be where he has an edge over, you know, his most competitive rival. The interesting thing that we've -- the other interesting thing we've seen from Trump is he clearly is still doing more work to shore up the conservative base. Take a look at what he had to say at his event last night about guns.</s>DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT CANDIDATE: So big Second Amendment, we're all big heavy on the Second Amendment, you know. You know the president's thinking about signing an executive order where he wants to take your guns away. You hear it this way. This is the news. Not going to happen. That won't happen.</s>MURRAY: Now, of course we have no indication from the White House that there is an executive order in the works to take Americans' guns away. But CNN's Gary Tuchman spoke to voters as he was leaving last night, and they completely believed everything Donald Trump was saying. You get a sense of just how much voters are swayed when they go to events like this -- Michaela.</s>MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: They feel those things very personally. All right, Sara. Thank you for that. The big question, is Vice President Joe Biden running for president? Although we don't know -- pardon me, we don't know yet his decision, there are some new clues that Biden might be on the verge of launching a campaign. Our White House correspondent, Jim Acosta, is live with the latest. You're following the mouse trail, are I don't you?</s>JIM ACOSTA, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Clues but no clarity, that's right, Michaela. Good morning. Democratic sources tell me Vice President Joe Biden is still sounding very serious about a run for the White House. He's been reaching out to loyalists to talk strategy. But even his friends inside the Democratic Party are not sure how long he can drag this out. Last night he met with his political advisers, and his team is talking to operatives about joining a potential campaign. And it seems every day Biden sends out another teaser about his intentions. Consider the comments he made yesterday at a climate conference here at the White House, when he seemed to take a dig at Hillary Clinton. Listen to what he had to say.</s>BIDEN: Darrell Issa, not a Republican friend of mine. He's a friend. I don't consider Republicans enemies; they're friends.</s>ACOSTA: Now, that might have been a dig at Hillary Clinton, who said last week at the Democratic debate on CNN, that she considers Republicans her enemies. Now moving on to one Pennsylvania congressman, he is so confident that Biden will run that he tweeted it. Democratic Congressman Brendan Boyle tweeted he has a source telling him -- we'll put it up on screen -- that Biden will run. I talked to Boyle yesterday, and he said he stands by that tweet, saying the information came from a source close to Biden and that if Biden didn't run, he would be pulling back from a decision that's already been made. Now, we should also mention there's a new CNN/ORC poll out that shows the Democrats may be losing patience with Biden, if you put this up on screen. You can see, back in August, there was more support for a Biden run than there is now. It has dropped to less than half. And guys, in terms of timing, you know, Hillary Clinton has this appearance before the Benghazi committee on Thursday. A lot of Democrats are telling me Joe Biden should not time his announcement around that, be seen as exploiting that. And there's also, Chris and Alisyn, this Jefferson Jackson dinner out in Iowa on Saturday. Hillary Clinton will be there. Democratic candidates will be there. Democrats are telling me if Joe Biden misses that dinner on Saturday, he has essentially decided by not deciding. Back to you.</s>CAMEROTA: Wow. Busy week.</s>CUOMO: Decided by not deciding. How about Brendan Boyle there, Jim, showing the difference between a politician and a reporter? He's got one source. He goes with it. He's asked to backtrack, and he says, "I'm doubling down." That's the difference between them and us.</s>ACOSTA: Now I'm competing with a congressman. Who knew? You know.</s>CUOMO: All right, Jim. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. All right. Let's bring back Sara Murray. And in studio, we have Errol Louis, CNN political commentator and political anchor for New York One. Errol, I will posit this. If Biden were looking for an advantageous time to get in, he missed it. I think that looking at the current situation as a calculus of opportunity is somewhat misguided. What do you think?</s>ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, absolutely right. I mean, he had the opportunity, you know, sadly around death of his son. But it came with a story that his son, who was also a public servant, was a politician, had said to him that he really want him to run. He had that opportunity. He had -- Hillary Clinton was sort of stumbling around in the early phases of this e-mail scandal. It look like there was maybe some need for it. The polls suggested that the public wanted him in. He had everything sort of lined up, and then the time kind of got away from him. Now we're, what, 105 days out from Iowa. The technical prowess that it would take to put people on the ground, to get registered in all of these states, to get the money raised, to get the rationale and the messaging done, it's really not that easy to do in just, like, basically 90 to 100 days.</s>CAMEROTA: It's still possible. I mean, this week...</s>LOUIS: Entirely possible.</s>CAMEROTA: The next couple weeks, it's still possible, yes?</s>LOUIS: Well, that's right. So, you know, the idea is that it would have -- it would have been a lot easier. If he's going to run, he has sort of put a couple of extra boulders on his back that he's going to have to carry, and it's going to be much harder to get started now than it would have been, had he sort of just made -- made the decision and run with it months ago, really.</s>CAMEROTA: Sara, let's dive into these numbers on the Republican side. Because they're really interesting, and not just for the two top frontrunners of Trump and Carson, who have seen their numbers go up. But let's look at what's happening with Jeb Bush for one. His number has gone down. I mean, not significantly from last month, nine to eight, but still, when is he going to get some momentum that everyone predicted?</s>MURRAY: I think that's a big question surrounding his campaign, particularly from the donors I've talked to who have given significant amounts of money to the campaign. And you know, it seems like Jeb's circle is ready to just sort of chug along. And they think eventually Donald Trump will collapse, and they will be the beneficiaries of that. But that's not really what we're seeing in the data, when you see this outsider sentiment, when you see people like Ben Carson rising to the top, it seems like the alternative people are looking for are not -- is not someone like Jeb Bush. And so I think that the idea that, all of a sudden, there will just be a wave of support that hasn't emerged is a little bit difficult to understand, like why that could be their strategy.</s>CUOMO: They're asking for attrition. I'll tell you what, if you had answered that question with an actual date, if one Bush is going to get momentum, I would have immediately asked for you to be relieved of your duties and we could go back to Vegas. You know, when you look at, there's a woman's story here, both in the form of Carly Fiorina and in the voter inclination. If you look up Carson and Trump on voters, I don't know what is more -- let's say, surprising. That you have 46 percent of them eating up these top two outsiders or, Errol, the rationale for women to want Ben Carson is, dot, dot, dot...</s>LOUIS: The rationale is that he's a competent candidate. He's conservative. If you're a conservative woman, not just a woman but a conservative woman, he tracks with what you want to see. And so, you know, this is somebody who has, you know, rescued women in childbirth, you know. He's done all kinds of amazing things as a surgeon. That's not nothing. He's a true evangelical. That counts for a lot with a certain sector of the populace. So I don't know that women voters gravitate to candidates for fundamentally different reasons. Because, you know, there's a handful of issues that you can sort of reliably expect women to sort of be concerned about. But that's not really what's driving the Ben Carson surge.</s>CAMEROTA: Yes, I mean, look, we're talking to a group of voters coming up in Nevada. And there are women on the panel, and they don't just vote on women's issues. They vote on the economy. They vote on who they think is most competent.</s>CUOMO: Women never vote on women's issues. That's the exception. I'm saying what is the rationality, though, for him? You know, when you talk to voters, they always have a why question in the polls or at least in the focus groups. I don't know how they did with this one. So Sara, that becomes the issue, is that, you know, what is the why fueling this -- you know, this perception of needing an outsider in there? Because it seems to evolve over time. If we look at another interesting pop-out of this, the enthusiasm. OK. So not only are they looking for outsiders, but they're looking for it in a very enthusiastic way. Sixty-eight percent say they are pumped for this. Seventy-five percent say they like their field. How much fear and loathing is there going on in that second and third tier of the people in this poll?</s>MURRAY: Well, I think that there is a certain amount of loathing for the people here at the Laura Ronson (ph). You can't get any momentum. Look, I think if you're Carly Fiorina and you're looking at this poll, this is a very dark day for you. This is a woman who shot to No. 2 in the pack and now is down there back once again in the single digits. Look, I think that's problematic. We don't know if this is the kind of cycle where, if you fall back down to earth, your poll numbers can rise again or if it's what we've seen in the past, where you have your moment in the spotlight and, after that moment, voters move on. They look at the next candidate. And you didn't do that with more than a dozen candidates.</s>CAMEROTA: But what happened? What happened, Errol, to Carly Fiorina after her big momentum with the debate?</s>LOUIS: I suspect that this goes to the quality of her campaign. And the strategy that they have on the ground. Because when you get in front of 20 million people and you make a big splash, there's got to be some follow-up. There's got to be some messaging. There's got to be some outreach to people on the ground. You've got to remind people of what you did. And it has to be more than just a couple of e-mails here and there. I mean, that by the way, is part of the genius of Ben Carson's campaign. Is that he's used Facebook very, very effectively. So who he has, he sort of keeps them with him. Obviously, Carly Fiorina has not figured out how to do that. Because really, what has changed since that debate where she suddenly got a pop in the polls?</s>CUOMO: She disappeared. I mean, we used to be able to get her on the show. It's hard to find her now. I mean, she's been on FOX a little bit. But she's not out there the way she was before. It's very odd.</s>LOUIS: The campaign staff, I'm sure, just heard that. And maybe you should be thinking a little bit more about that. Right? I mean, Donald Trump's going to be on today. I mean, you know, you've got to, at this point, if you want to talk to the whole country, and that's what the national polls really reflect, what the whole country thinks, you've got to try to have some presence. I haven't seen Carly Fiorina either in quite a while. What's she been doing?</s>CAMEROTA: Good question. Carly, call us. Errol, Sara, thanks so much for all of this analysis. And coming up, as Errol just said on NEW DAY, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump joins us live at 7 a.m. Eastern. Stick around for that -- Michaela.</s>PEREIRA: All right, Alisyn. The FBI and the Secret Service are investigating claims that personal e-mail accounts associated with the director of the CIA and the head of homeland security were breached by hackers. A group calling themselves CWA is taking credit for hacking into their private e-mail accounts and has been tweeting out information they claim to have gathered when they gained access. Our Laurie Segall spoke to those alleged hackers. She joins us now from London. What an interesting story, what an interesting conversation.</s>LAURIE SEGALL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this is obviously pretty embarrassing for the CIA. I will say this. But I spoke to these hackers. They described themselves almost as stoners, as these alleged hackers. I was able to reach them yesterday on the phone. And they disguised their voices. They tell me how and why they did it. Take a look.</s>SEGALL: You claim you were able to hack the private e-mail account of the CIA director. How did you do that?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Well, we had most of his personal information, like his name, address, phone number, Social Security number and other things. And when we socially engineered, we like manipulated AOL to, like, do the password reset on the account. We socially engineered Verizon and then we socially engineered to get his last four details on his bank account.</s>SEGALL: If this is true and you guys have actually broken into his private e-mail account, how difficult would you say it is?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: You mean out of ten?</s>SEGALL: Sure, out of ten.</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: One.</s>SEGALL: One?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Yes.</s>SEGALL: You guys say you were able to hack into his -- his personal inbox. What did you find?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Social Security numbers, plans talking about Iraq and security, a lot of information. Really, he's pretty stupid, really. He's supposed to be the head of the CIA. He should be more clever.</s>SEGALL: What was your motivation for doing this?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Free Palestine, the United States government funds Israel, and Israel, they kill innocent people.</s>SEGALL: Give us any indication of your background? I mean, how old you are. Are you in the United States? I mean, anything you can tell me about yourself?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Yes. I'm below the age of 22 years old. I smoke pot and I have live in America.</s>SEGALL: And you smoke pot?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Every day.</s>SEGALL: You're saying you might have hacked the director of the CIA when you were high?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Probably.</s>SEGALL: Are you sophisticated hackers?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: I would kind of put us, like, in the middle, maybe? We're not, like, stupid, but we're not really smart. There's not a lot of really, really smart people.</s>SEGALL: Do you guys worry about retribution?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: I'm going to go to Russia and chill with Snowden, because I know that the government is pretty mad about this. I'm probably going to get tortured. I'm actually a pretty fast runner.</s>SEGALL: You plan to leak more information? Is there any specific target?</s>ROBOTIC VOICE: Yes. The government and the police and the White House people, they're losers.</s>SEGALL: Now, sources have confirmed that both accounts were, in fact, hacked, although we can't independently verify those leaked documents. But as you can see, these guys are saying they're not that sophisticated. And as they say, it wasn't that easy [SIC] to do something that has massive, massive ramifications -- Chris.</s>CUOMO: We learn all the time, Laurie, it is a game of catch-up, that's for sure. Because we're not dealing, apparently, with the most sophisticated of minds that are doing this hacking. Laurie, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Let's see what the next chapter is in that story. Big story out of Canadian politics. The country's liberal party winning an absolute majority in parliamentary elections and ending nine years of conservative rule. The next prime minister, there he is, handsome man, Justin Trudeau. Not this reflection of outsider fever like they have in our election. He is the son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau and is expected to form a majority government, liberal victory, denies a fourth term to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party. Did you vote in absentia?</s>PEREIRA: I have not. I haven't had residency in 17 years.</s>CUOMO: Really? You're a little bit of an ex-pat, really, if you look at it. All this Canadaic (ph) stuff, do we have to hear it?</s>PEREIRA: Right here, baby. Right here.</s>CAMEROTA: You should have had that rigged. That's what I say about it.</s>PEREIRA: Thank you.</s>CAMEROTA: Meanwhile, an update now on Oscar Pistorius. He was released from prison, and he is now under house arrest. The move comes less than a year after he was convicted of killing his girlfriend, Reeva Steenkamp. He will serve the rest of his five-year sentence at his uncle's home in Pretorius, South Africa. Steenkamp's family says his release does not make a difference, because their daughter is never coming back. Pistorius shot Steenkamp on Valentine's Day 2013, saying he mistook her as an intruder.</s>PEREIRA: Soon leaders at Ole Miss voting today on whether to remove the Mississippi state flag from campus because it has a Confederate battle flag on it. Confederate symbols and tributes have come under increased scrutiny ever since June's racially motivated Charleston church massacre in which nine members of Emanuel AME Church were killed.</s>CUOMO: All right. So guess what? Democrats are trying to put Joe Biden on a clock. The question becomes how long should the vice president have to decide whether or not he'll run for president? Is this calculation about Clinton's Benghazi testimony to any degree? We have insight for you, ahead.