CNN Poll: 2016 GOP Surprise?
JOHN KING, CNN HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": Three letters: G-Y-M. After all those cookies. Let's go. We got a lot of talk about Inside Politics this morning. Let's go there after they eat their cookies. With me to share their reporting and their insights, Jackie Kucinich, Ed O'Keefe of "The Washington Post". Let's talk about our brand new CNN/ORC poll today, which has a bit of a surprise when you look at 2016 and the Republican contenders. First, if Mitt Romney runs, here we go, he would be the overwhelming frontrunner, but at just 20 percent. Look at the guy at number two, Dr. Ben Carson, a nonpolitician at number two then Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee. Below that is a pretty impressive field actually of a number of other Republican candidates. Here's what happens if Romney does not run. Jeb Bush 14 percent, Ben Carson hangs in there at 11 percent, and then Huckabee, Christie, Ryan, known names. Jackie, what this tells me, number one, there is no frontrunner. The Republican Party is normally, you know, who the guy is we don't know who the guy is. Unless Romney runs, but he says he's not. The other thing that's interesting is Dr. Ben Carson. Not a politician. After this mid-term election, after the last few years of Washington dysfunction, it's clear that even Republicans are looking, trying at least to think outside the box.</s>JACKIE KUCINICH, "THE WASHINGTON POST": One of the interesting things about Romney is in January of 2011 he also was at 20 percent in several polls. So there is a sweet spot for Romney, I think, within the Republican Party. But when you're talking about Ben Carson, he seems to be speaking to the activist class in the Republican Party. And they are the ones rallying behind him. They have been looking for someone to sort of carry their banner and right now, they really seem to like Ben Carson.</s>KING: An African-American Republican, a conservative, and if you travel the country you're going to evangelical book stores, his books are popular. Obviously he had his post. He left his post at Fox News because he's exploring running for president. Is he an interesting candidate or is he a potential presidential nominee?</s>ED O'KEEFE, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I think he's an interesting candidate and who Republicans conservatives have been buzzing about for more than a year. I remember being at an event in Iowa about 14 months ago, there were "Run Ben Run" bumper stickers and people who had travelled from other parts of the country come to Towa to tell Republicans, look at this guy seriously. What this poll suggests however is that the field is just as volatile as it was this time four years ago for Republicans. For example, where's Rand Paul? Suddenly he's fallen out of the top tier after being in it for much of the last several months. And now Ben Carson jumps upped and others slide down and even Paul Ryan comes up. This is exactly what we saw last time. It's still very volatile. Lots of potential for people to move up and it also suggests at least for now that there's a little bit of the flavor of the month stuff going on.</s>KING: And the big names, the known names, name identification matters a lot this early out. Romney, Bush, Christie, Huckabee, nationally- known names. That's what makes Carson so interesting. He leapfrogs as you mentioned. Some impressive guys, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Senator Cruz, Governor Walker, Governor Perry, Senator Rubio. They're all down in the 4's, 5's and 6s, and a lot of that I think will change once we get decisions. We're going to get decisions early in the New Year. The big decision people are waiting for in the Republican Party, the biggest question is the former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, son of one president, brother of another president. Listen to Jeb Bush.</s>JEB BUSH, FORMER FLORIDA GOVERNOR: I don't know if I'd be a good candidate or bad one. I kind of know how Republican can win whether it's me or somebody else. And it has to be much more uplifting, much more positive. Much more willing to you know, to be practical now in Washington world, lose the primary to win the general without violating your principles. It's not an easy task, to be honest with you.</s>KING: What's he trying to tell us? Here's a guy who would be at odds with the base of the party on immigration, at odds with the base of the party or a significant slice of it on common core education standards. What's Jeb Bush saying about the general, I know what it's like to win?</s>KUCINICH: You know, I was speaking to someone last week who told me that he was leaning toward running and this reiterates that. I think it's going with the message from the establishment of the Republican Party. That in order to win the general, you have to buck the base, there hasn't been anyone yet willing to do that and came out OK on the other side.</s>KING: We saw what happened with Romney last time. A lot of people thought if Romney had a chance against President Obama he needed to make your point, maybe buck the base or at least not get dragged right and he did on immigration and other issues. Jeb Bush is at least saying there, I won't do that right?</s>O'KEEFE: And you wonder how well he'll do in Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire and elsewhere because of that. I think what he's trying to say here is, yes, I know I could do it. Clearly as a governor I was successful. What I really don't want to do is have to do is spend time in Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, pandering to these different blocs of Republicans. I just want to run in the general election because if you look at the numbers there, it suggests I could do quite well.</s>KING: You've got to earn it. I think most signals are that Huckabee is thinking about it it's an impressive field on paper. If you look at terms of experience, these could be fun debates.</s>KUCINICH: You have to wonder if he was encouraged also by the results of the 2014 election. Because the establishment really did get their candidates out there and they won and you know, the proof is in the results.</s>KING: Jeb Bush would have a little bit, they would get a little, the establishment would rally around him and the pressure would turn to Governor Christie. On the Democrats, you saw no front-runner there, right, nobody could you claim front-runner status on the Republican side. It's a little different for the Democrats. Let's show you the numbers, some woman named Hillary Clinton at 65 percent, 65 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 10, Jill Biden at 9, Bernie Sanders at 5, and Governor Andrew Cuomo at 1 percent among the top Democrats. So look what happens, if Hillary Clinton decided, we all expect she is running a bit of loyalty there, rallying around the vice president. If Hillary Clinton did not run, Joe Biden is your front-runner at 41, Elizabeth warren up to 20. You see Governor Cuomo, Bernie Sanders and Governor O'Malley at the bottom of the pack. If you're Secretary Clinton and you're reading these numbers, I mean, again, the fleet is in your port and you decide what to do here, right?</s>KUCINICH: It's very true, but we're old enough to remember the last time Hillary Clinton was an unbeatable candidate. I think these are very early polls, a lot of it as you said are good for Hillary early. We've seen when Hillary gets out there and starts running, things can get more complicated.</s>KING: But who? You still need, somebody, somebody -- well somebody has to beat you, which means somebody has to present a real challenge, who is that? Is it former Senator Jim Webb? Is it Bernie Sanders?</s>O'KEEFE: Those guys will run, there's no indication they're inspiring Democrats the way that Elizabeth Warren is the numbers for her continue to be impressive. This far out that's where you want to be, not in first place, but in second place, but enough Democrats say we would like to see someone like that run. Is that Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Elizabeth Warren? She insists she's not getting it. It says something that she got a minor little leadership role up in the Senate when Harry Reid tapped her for this policy position. And I heard from so many Democrats that were excited that she was finally in the mix. The job she got is incredibly insignificant, but it was a demonstration that liberal Democrats are eager to see people like her at the table. Helping steer the party into the future and it's something that Clinton will have to contend with.</s>KING: It's interesting. A lot of people saying why do we care about the 2016 numbers so early? They will change, but they matter what all the candidates are looks, should I run, who-day talk to? When do I decide? That's the dominant effect we'll see in the first quarter of next year. Jackie, Ed, thanks for coming and Alisyn. I want to show you something. We've known it's happening for some time. The White House gives us a picture on technology's impact on the president's daily briefing. There he is reading it on a tablet. We think of it in a manila folder that's stamped "top secret." There's the president, that's a tough read every day for any president. But interesting use of technology and a big question for me is -- how secure they feel about that, given all these hacking stories.</s>ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: That's a great question, if only we knew a political reporter who could pose it in Washington, D.C. to the White House, let us know if you find someone -- John.</s>KING: I bet that happens today.</s>CAMEROTA: Great to see you. All right, the University of Virginia taking steps to protect women on campus after a reported gang rape at a fraternity party. We're talking to the student council president, about what's next.