Politicians May Defect, But Will Their Constituency Follow?
JOIE CHEN, CNN ANCHOR: On that question of, why? Why a political leader makes a move to the other side, there is the experience of history, and of some other defectors.</s>CHEN (voice-over): Just think about the difference one player can make, especially one who's come from the other side. Wacky windup and all, the Yankees scored big when El Duque defected from Cuba. Now, the Democrats hope Jim Jeffords will play ball. On Capitol Hill, the game has mostly swung the other way over the past two decades. 14 House and Senate Democrats have become Republicans, and just one Republican moved over to the Democratic side. He, by the way, lost his next election, which is a big part of the calculus when it comes to considering a party switch.</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: It's a very risky thing to do. You have to be pretty sure that your constituency is with you, either because your constituency is moving toward the other party, or that you are so personally popular that it is safe to do that.</s>CHEN: Consider some of the most recent switches: Colorado's Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who became a Republican in 1995; Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, who did the same a year earlier; and Senator Phil Gramm, who joined the G.O.P. when he was a still a Texas Congressman. All banked on having constituencies who stuck with them when they made the switch. In part, for the southern politicians especially, because their state politics had become increasingly conservative and Republican. And Vermont's Independent streak gives Jeffords some comfort. Though ideology must be a factor, in the end, it probably comes down to something personal.</s>SCHNEIDER: There's a deeper cause which is sort of political. And there's the precipitating event which is usually personal, usually an insult.