Down to the Wire in Iowa
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: In Iowa, it is crunch time big time, the caucuses now less than 24 hours away. And the race is as close as they come. Three Democrats, two Republicans are virtually tied at the top in the final stretch of a campaigning marathon. We have got new poll numbers tonight and the best political team on television to translate them for us. In Iowa, the airwaves are filled with spin about the issues Americans say they care most about. We think you want the facts tonight, not the hype. So, we're going to look tonight beyond the posturing to the candidates' actual positions. How about that? We're "Keeping Them Honest." Plus, an all-out battle for Iowa's evangelicals. Both Republican front-runners want and need their votes. Whose prayers are most likely to be answered? We will go inside Iowa's pulpit just ahead. All of the front-runners are spending these final hours trying to win over the undecided and make sure those who already support them turn out tomorrow in the cold and the snow, no matter what the weather may be. Some campaigns are handing out shovels, literally. Others are promising baby-sitters. No secret as to why. CNN's latest poll of polls shows just how close the races are. Take a look. Just two percentage points separate the Democratic front-runners, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. The Republican race is largely a two-man battle, with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney in a virtual dead heat and the rest of the track -- of the pack trailing far behind. Now, anything could happen tomorrow night, as we have said. All of the front-runners know that. We begin tonight with the stakes and CNN senior political correspondent Candy Crowley.</s>SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you! Thank you!</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Know how you can tell it's close to being over? They're screaming.</s>OBAMA: If you believe, let's go change the world and stand with me!</s>CROWLEY: And they're careening around the state. John Edwards is on a 36-hour nonstop road show.</s>JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, we have important work still left to do.</s>CROWLEY: And they're getting all chummy and cheery with the press corps.</s>SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Oh, how are you all?</s>CROWLEY: Armed with a coffee pot, Hillary Clinton helpfully reminded reporters to wear a coat in the cold and then look down the road.</s>CLINTON: You know, I'm going to go all the way from the caucuses tomorrow through February 5 and expect to be the nominee. So...</s>CROWLEY: And that's the thing about Iowa. Despite the yearlong campaign, it's not close to being over. It's close to starting.</s>GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D-NM), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: All I want to do is having a strong showing, in the top three, move on to New Hampshire, move on to Nevada, and then to New Mexico and some of the Western primaries.</s>CROWLEY: That's the other thing about Iowa. Unless you're a prohibitive front-runner who implodes... (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, 2004) HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. Yes!</s>CROWLEY: ... think Howard Dean -- you don't have to win to survive.</s>SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D-DE), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think anybody that comes out of here who exceeds expectations is going to get a ticket to go to New Hampshire. And I expect to get one of those tickets.</s>CROWLEY: Iowa does not decide the race to the nomination, but it shapes it.</s>MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People are going to be listening to what Iowa has to say.</s>CROWLEY: A few for instances.</s>MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I mean, if there ever was a definition underdog, look in the dictionary. There's a photo of me, right there, underdog.</s>CROWLEY: If Huckabee beats Romney, he becomes more than an interesting blip in campaign history, although still under-financed. It would not be fatal for Romney, but it would weaken him and ensure a really interesting Romney-McCain dogfight in New Hampshire.</s>ROMNEY: And with regards to Senator McCain, I think he was just wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts twice.</s>CROWLEY: And there are endless down-the-road permutations for Democrats.</s>OBAMA: We need to turn the page. We need to write a new chapter.</s>CROWLEY: If Obama wins, Clinton loses the patina of inevitability. And New Hampshire polls showing a tie with Barack Obama grow more troublesome, unless, of course, Clinton loses to John Edwards, producing an Edwards-Obama showdown for the not-Hillary slot.</s>CLINTON: Come out to caucus tomorrow tonight and, together, we will make history. Thank you all so much!</s>CROWLEY: And if she wins, Iowa, in the rearview mirror, may turn out to be the beginning of the end for everyone else.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're ready.</s>CLINTON: We're ready.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.</s>CLINTON: We're ready.</s>CROWLEY: And, if she places third, whole new ball game, baby.</s>COOPER: New ball game, indeed. Man, it's interesting. Candy Crowley joins me now from Iowa, and John King is in New Hampshire, where the nation's first primary is next Tuesday. Candy, is there a real chance Hillary Clinton could come in third? And, if that happens, what happens?</s>CROWLEY: Absolutely there's a chance. I mean, just look at those polls. I mean, all of them know -- and even when you talk to these campaigns off the record or on background, they really aren't sure. They're trying to make sure who's going to show up, but they don't really know what the other guy's doing. So, these are very close races. And, of course, it's possible. She could come in first, second, or third. So, if that should happen, it really damages their campaign. Does it mortally wound it? Absolutely not. She's got a big name. She's got lots of money. She clearly can carry on. She clearly can go to those February 5 states, the big states, where name recognition and money is going to help a lot. But the fact of the matter is, once you take away that, you know, she's the incumbent, or, you know, the presumed incumbent, that kind of atmosphere they wanted to create around her campaign, once you take that away, it really is a difference race.</s>COOPER: John, four years ago, almost 20 percent of Democratic caucus-goers called themselves independents -- Senator Barack Obama making a strong push for their support this time around. How much are his chances tied to their turnout?</s>JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There is no question, here in New Hampshire -- to a degree in Iowa, but mostly here in New Hampshire -- Barack Obama is very much counting on the independents in this state who can vote in either primary to flood the Democratic race. And all of the polls now, Anderson, show a majority, a big majority of the independents here in New Hampshire are going to Democrat this time, and Obama benefits from that. Could the Iowa results change that? They could. If Hillary Clinton beats Obama, will the independents here reconsider or will they rally to Obama? Or might they say, you know what, let's go play on the Republican side, maybe help John McCain. So, Iowa's results will impact New Hampshire. Iowa and New Hampshire don't pick. They winnow the fields. And the person who wins Iowa often faces resistance in New Hampshire. This state prides itself on being independent. So, the independent voters matter in both states, much more so here in New Hampshire. At the moment, they're trending Democratic. But five days between Iowa and New Hampshire is not a long time, but enough time for people to change their mind.</s>COOPER: Candy, the top two Republicans, top three Democrats virtually tie in Iowa, as we have talked about. So, there's a lot of talk about these undecideds. Who is in the best position to appeal to them right now, and will they actually turn out? Does anyone know?</s>CROWLEY: You know, it's really interesting, because the conventional wisdom will tell you that, if somebody is undecided at this point in a race, they probably won't show up at the polls. But I have got to tell you, I go to all these town hall meetings, and, regardless of what the candidate -- who the candidate is, I talk to these undecideds, and they say, no, no, we're -- we're going. And I say, well, could you -- could you make up your mind inside that caucus?</s>CROWLEY: And they say, of course, we could, because, remember, the arguments stay on inside the caucus. People are trying to convince you to come to their side, come to their candidate. So, there really are people here who are dedicated politicos who intend to go to those caucuses who say that, even that night, they could go in and be changed towards whatever -- whatever candidate they're leaning toward. So, you know, who is -- who's ahead with the undecideds? It really depends on what campaign you talk to. If you talk to the Obama campaign or the Edwards campaign, they will tell you, well, if someone hasn't decided about Hillary Clinton now, they are going to decide against her, because she's so well-known. However, they do it obviously really differently in the Clinton campaign, where they think that the undecideds really will go for her, because they're going to look at electability.</s>COOPER: John, let's put Iowa in perspective. In terms of races in the past, how has that had an impact on what goes on in New Hampshire? How big a bump -- if you win in Iowa, how big a bump, traditionally, do you get, and how long does that last for?</s>KING: Well, that is a big question because of the difference this year. You get a big bump. Bob Dole got a big bump when he won back in 1988. But there were eight or nine days between then and New Hampshire, and he lost. George W. Bush won Iowa back in 2000, got stumped by John McCain here, because this state said, no, wait a minute, we're not going to bless Iowa's choice. Only five days this time, so one of the calculations of, say, John McCain, he hopes Mike Huckabee wins Iowa, make no mistake about it, because he thinks Mitt Romney will drop overnight five, maybe 10 or 12 points here in New Hampshire. And, with five days, including a weekend being in there, can he recover? So, there is no question the winner of Iowa will get a bounce. The question then is what does New Hampshire do about it? Again, quickly, if it's Mike Huckabee in Iowa, well, he will come here more popular. He will go up in the polls. But this is a pro-choice state. Even among Republicans, they favor abortion rights. And it is a state that has fiercely resisted a sales tax for years. And the central economic proposal of Mike Huckabee is abolish the IRS and the income tax and have a national sales tax. So, we have a lot to learn. We will get the first voice out of Iowa and then we will have a bit of a resetting of the race here in New Hampshire.</s>COOPER: A reset, indeed. John King, Candy Crowley, thanks. The candidates have spent a record amount of money on advertising in Iowa. Here's the "Raw Data" on that. Forty million dollars has gone towards political ads just in the Hawkeye State. That's roughly $200 per caucus-goer and more than four times the $9.1 million Democrats spent in Iowa in 2004, four times the amount. Republicans, you will recall, skipped the caucuses because President Bush was seeking his second term. Now, a quick programming note: CNN's special coverage of the Iowa caucuses starts tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. We have got reporters and producers all over the state. You can expect the most comprehensive coverage of the contest from the best political team on TV. Up next: what you don't know about the caucuses.</s>COOPER (voice-over): Candidates spending big bucks in a small state, to the pundits:</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It just seems absurd.</s>COOPER: But Iowa still is the first state to decide the fate of the president. So, how will it be done tomorrow night in Iowa? And why it matters -- the caucuses 101 coming up. Plus, the Democrats and the issues, the war in Iraq, the economy, and health care, where do the top Democratic candidates really stand? We're "Keeping Them Honest" -- when 360 continues.