Interview with Jon Huntsman; Courting The Evangelicals; Political Analysts Examine Iowa Caucuses Race; Iowa Voters Wants Cuts; Finishing 3rd in Iowa -- What Does it Get You?
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. We're coming to you live from the Waveland Cafe. I'm Soledad O'Brien. And you're watching the first edition of our new show, which is called STARTING POINT. We're in Des Moines, Iowa. The Waveland Cafe is where we have decided to launch our show, and a place where political folks who are interested of talking about the issues come to talk. Here, we're going to be looking at the big stories, give you some details, inside information you can't get anywhere else -- only a worldwide news organization like CNN can bring to you. We're also going to be talking to the leaders, and the news makers, and also real folks, challenging some of the conventional takes of the issues of the day. Nice to have you with us. Our STARTING POINT this morning, though, one Republican who is missing -- what is happening here in Iowa, Jon Huntsman. He is spending his time in New Hampshire this morning, while his rivals are stumping in the Hawkeye State. He says Iowa is for picking corn, and New Hampshire picks presidents. That's a little bit snarky. Jon Huntsman is going to join us live on STARTING POINT. That's ahead. First, though, let's take a look at some of the headlines. There's one day left and one word could hold the key to outcome of the Iowa GOP caucuses. And that word is "uncertain." Lots of people here at the Hawkeye State still are not sold on a particular candidate. We're going to ask the question why. According to evangelicals, their vote was crucial in 2008 Republican race. But could courting them in Iowa actually, eventually end up costing the candidates nationally? We'll take a look at that as well. And Iowa voters agreed this election is about the economy and cutting spending. One place they're looking to cut if Iowans have their way would be the Department of Education. It could be history. We'll take a look at what that really could mean.</s>O'BRIEN: Good morning. Welcome, everybody. From the Waveland Cafe -- it is a local hot spot in Des Moines, a diner known for being a top political pit stop. And, of course, they have a specialty here, called the "everything's hash brown," which literally is everything you can think of in a hash brown, including two kinds of cheese. So, not very healthy, only 10 million calories, but it's a great place to eat. Every other candidate is in Iowa this morning, but there's one who's missing from the Hawkeye State. It's Governor Jon Huntsman, who is about 1,200 miles away this morning. He's campaigning in New Hampshire. Why? Listen to what he told CBS News.</s>JON HUNTSMAN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They pick corn in Iowa. They actually pick presidents here in New Hampshire.</s>O'BRIEN: A little snarky, huh? Well, has that strategy ever paid off? It kind of reminds us of Rudy Giuliani back in 2008, who put all his eggs in the basket that was Florida. He spent his time and over $3 million in advertising in the Sunshine State, a state that was supposed to be Rudy country. But by the time the primary actually got around to January 29th in Florida, John McCain and Mitt Romney were riding the wave of headlines from the earlier primary states and crushed Giuliani, who then placed third with just 15 percent of the vote. So, joining us this morning to talk about all of that, we're going to ask the question, is Huntsman missing momentum building opportunity by skipping Iowa? Or could he pull off a shocker in New Hampshire? The governor of the Hawkeye State says the former Utah's governor's strategy is misguided. Take a listen.</s>GOV. TERRY BRANSTAD (R), IOWA: He messed up big time. He skipped Iowa. And the result is, he is going to be -- he is an asterisk and he's never going to get beyond that.</s>O'BRIEN: Candy Crowley talking to him. So let's speak right now with Jon Huntsman, who's joining us live from Manchester, New Hampshire. Good morning. Nice to see you, sir. Thanks for being with us.</s>HUNTSMAN: Hey, Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: Have there been a moment -- hey -- have you regretted the decision you have made to skip this state and just go straight to New Hampshire, sir?</s>HUNTSMAN: No regrets, Soledad. You got -- you got to lay out your assets and your resources and states where you think you can do best. And listen, the rap on me is that Huntsman guy, he can go on and he can win the general election. Can he do well in some of the early primary states? This is a state to be sure that likes to reward underdogs. I'm an underdog in this race. And if you get out and work hard, this is a level playing field where you got Republicans, you got independents, and maybe a few Democrats turn out in the primary. And it is a primary. And I think if you work it hard and if you have a message as I do, and if you are willing to do 140, 150 public events and town hall meetings as I have done in this state, then I think you're rewarded for that. So, we're going to let the people turn out and vote in about a week and see what it all means. But I feel pretty good about having come from the margin of error. We came into this state as a complete asterisk, at zero, and now we are bumping into the teens. And I have to tell you, with the topsy-turvy and unpredictable nature of the race so far, I think we are positioned pretty well, Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: But, you know, talking about an asterisk, you just heard what the governor said, the Iowa governor said about you. No one here is talking about you. I mean, literally, it might just be me this morning. Doesn't that hurt you ultimately?</s>HUNTSMAN: Well, that's about to change in about 48 hours. And then the big bright light will be here on New Hampshire. And in true fashion, New Hampshire always tends to upend conventional wisdom. The pundit class, they always come into New Hampshire, always predicting who's going to be up and who's down. This is a state that does not like to be told for whom to vote. They don't want the establishment coronating or teeing up somebody that they feel they have to vote for. They want the candidates to earn it. So we're proving the point I think in real time here that politics and successful politics must be earned on the ground. You've got to have a message. And I am passionate about my message. And I think that is what's going to drive us to success here. We've got two deficits we have to deal with in this country for the most important election of my generation. We have an economic deficit that is a cancer that is eating this country alive. And we have a trust deficit in this country. Our people no longer trust our institutions of power, and no longer trust our politicians. And I say, if we can't get our arms around both of these deficits and do it fast, this country is in real trouble.</s>O'BRIEN: You have offered to match any donation that comes into your campaign between now and Wednesday. Do you ever think about all the air time that you would be getting with that kind of a proposal, if you were here?</s>HUNTSMAN: Listen, we have been getting pretty good air time here in New Hampshire. And again, I think a day or two following Iowa, all eyes are going to be on New Hampshire. And all next week, the work that we have done here in New Hampshire I think is going to pay off. And then the people of New Hampshire are going to cast a vote. And an interesting thing is going to happen when they cast a vote in a week. They're going to look at that ballot box. And all the drama and all the theater of the preseason is going to be behind them. And they're going to look at that ballot box and they're going to say, I actually have to cast a vote for somebody who can be president of the United States of America. There aren't a whole lot of people remaining who can actually be president of the United States of America. They're going to look at that ballot box and say -- who has the temperament, the background as a real job creator with real international experience, who's able to bring people together during a deeply divided time in our nation's history, who has a vision that can actually strike out and deal with the economic deficit and the trust deficit that are so real in this country. And that's when I believe that the people here in New Hampshire are going to render a very sensible judgment, which will likely transform the landscape of this race as we have seen in years past.</s>O'BRIEN: All right. Governor Huntsman, nice to chat with you this morning. I'm sure we'll be talking again in New Hampshire, when we all move there.</s>HUNTSMAN: Thanks, Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: Appreciate your time.</s>HUNTSMAN: Happy New Year to you. And congratulations on your new program.</s>O'BRIEN: Thank you. Oh, thank you. I appreciate that, sir. We'll talk more about New Hampshire, the strategy, and the wisdom of ignoring Iowa. We've got our CNN's chief national correspondent -- I guess John King isn't here. He'll be live for us in remote, we'll check in with him. Oh, there you are, John. I can see you there. He is in Atlanta for us. Here in Des Moines, our CNN chief political correspondent, also, of course, of "STATE OF THE UNION," it's Candy Crowley. Republican strategist Alex Castellanos is with us. Iowa radio Simon Conway is back. He's interviewed everybody but had not interviewed Huntsman. So when you hear what he says, which is, listen, I got to figure out where to put my money, makes sense to me to be there. You know, they love an underdog but it probably wouldn't be me. That sounds very reasonable.</s>SIMON CONWAY, INTERVIEWEED ALL CANDIDATES EXCEPT FOR JON HUNTSMAN: I was itching to ask him a question, because now he has insulted our state twice, not just once. He called us a pre-season. And I really just wanted to know how many other states he didn't want to be president of. Clearly, he doesn't want to be president here in Iowa.</s>O'BRIEN: But isn't he being strategically intelligent about where to put his money and time where with his position on ethanol subsidies, with his position on other issues, he just would not do well?</s>CONWAY: I completely understand that. And that's one thing. That's strategy. That's fine. There's no need to go the extra mile and issue insults to the statement of the state of Iowa and the people who live here. I think it's actually -- if the man was to be president, that was about as unpresidential as it gets.</s>ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: You know, the problem with the strategy too -- look, it's only a week. It's not Florida that's a month later, what Rudy Giuliani did, which he faded from the scene completely from the debate. It's only a week. But imagine what happens after Tuesday night. Romney gets a bump coming out of here because he's going to finish in the top one or two. Santorum is going to get a bump and a ride momentum because he's going to over-perform here. For the next two or three days, what's the story going to be in the national media? It's not going to be Huntsman. So, he's really cut his campaign down to two or three days next week.</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Sometimes the candidate sets the strategy, and sometimes, you know, the strategy drives the candidate. And this -- this is a guy who looked at the playing field. He wasn't -- the only thing worse than him not playing in Iowa was for him to play in Iowa and come in dead last. So, you know, he said, look, he started out in Florida and said, I'm not doing that well. It's like</s>O'BRIEN: So, let me ask John King a question. What does it say that a guy whose economic plan has been praised by the "Wall Street Journal," they said like it's as impressive as any to date, better than what we have seen from the other front-runner -- which is pretty much a big old kiss from the "Wall Street Journal," is not here because he literally thinks he cannot do well in this state.</s>JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Candy just made an important point. Sometimes the strategy picks the candidate. Sometimes the candidate picks the strategy. Sometimes the campaign team has a lot of influence on the candidate. And if you look at the top tier of the Huntsman campaign, it's the old McCain campaign, and they don't like Iowa. They don't trust Iowa. They didn't want him to get caught in the evangelical trap that they view as Iowa. So, they put him in New Hampshire. But, Soledad, they may have miscalculation. Their calculation was that Romney would stumble in Iowa again, that Iowa would again hurt Mitt Romney going into the state where he would have the most strength in New Hampshire. If Alex is right and the polls are right and Romney comes out of Iowa solid with a bounce, you may have a giant, galactically miscalculation on the part of the Huntsman people. However, their calculation is this: the conservative base of the party will still look for an alternative to Mitt Romney after Iowa, even if Iowa embraces Mitt Romney, even if New Hampshire begins to embrace Mitt Romney, that some conservative challenger must emerge and that he is not knicked up like the Newt Gingriches, like the Rick Perrys. That's their calculation. It is a longer than long shot, but that's their hope.</s>CASTELLANOS: And that's one of the problems for Huntsman, John. I think you're right about that Huntsman also had a strategic problem in that he -- we never quite figured out which playoff game he wanted to play in. Is he competing for the anti-Romney conservatives? He is a conservative governor from Utah. Is he competing to be the Romney space in New Hampshire? Sometimes being everything to everyone is the same thing as being nothing to everyone.</s>CROWLEY: Well, and his primary presentation was I'm a guy, I'm a moderate that can get along with people. Yes, I was the president's pick for ambassador to China. That means I can get along with people -- in a primary where they really don't want to get along with Democrats. So, he was -- you know, wrong guy, wrong time, certainly in Iowa. Not looking that great in New Hampshire. But I just don't think there was any other place for him to go. This has to be his -- where he rolls the dice.</s>O'BRIEN: I'm going to ask to you stick around, and we'll bring in a conversation about these folks who are these last-minute deciders really connected to the volatility I think of the race. Look at that sign, sign, sign, everywhere a signs. That certainly has been the case four years ago in Iowa during the run-up to the 2008 caucus, where people were showing their support for a candidate with the front yard sign -- as you can see here in this shot. We got John Edwards, Hillary Clinton. This caucus season, though, the landscape looks a lot different. The "Des Moines Register" poll, at least this poll on Sunday -- Saturday, rather, shows 41 percent of likely caucusgoers might still change their mind, which could explain maybe the lack of signs. Take a look at this neighborhood in West Des Moines. Three weeks ago, the only thing on display in this neighborhood is a wreath. No signs. We thought for sure we'd see a couple of signs, campaign signs at least somewhere. But look at this. Nothing. Nothing, nothing. And it actually is something that lots of locals in Iowa will talk about. Just days before the caucus, there are not that many signs, which is not unusual from what we've seen in our travels around Iowa. Which is why when we spotted this sign, 21 signs for Rick Santorum, we thought we had to stop. The homeowner is a guy named Pete Quinn. He says he was the first in his West Des Moines neighborhood to throw support behind a candidate. That was two months ago. And he expected his neighbors to follow suit. Listen.</s>PETE QUINN, SANTORUM SUPPORTER: It really surprised me, because, you know, I know that Iowans take their caucus process very seriously. And it's great. It's, you know, civil responsibility and it's the American exceptionalism and all of that. So I was really looking forward to it. I'm kind of like, hmm, I guess I seem to be an island in the drift.</s>O'BRIEN: Island in the drift. That's such a bad, bad thing when you're talking about the day before an election potentially. Why is he, Candy Crowley, the island in the drift?</s>CROWLEY: Ordinarily, if I saw a poll with this high a number of undecideds close to a normal election, is what we say, not a caucus, I would say this is baloney. These are people saying, oh, I'm keeping my mind open, but really they've already decided. Here is the deal about these caucuses. People are with their neighbors basically. They know the people inside these caucuses, many of them. So, when your neighbor gets up and says, I have 21 Rick Santorum signs and I want to talk to you about Rick Santorum, you're listening to him. So, maybe you went in thinking, but Mitt Romney is the only one you can win. And the neighbor says just that right sentence. You know him. He is an honest guy. You really can persuade people inside caucuses in a way the undecided vote doesn't mean that much in an untraditional election. I think in a caucus, it really does mean they are persuadable.</s>CASTELLANOS: One of the things, when you're in a campaign as a political professional and you see numbers like this, 41 percent of the people undecided this late, sometimes, people telling you they're undecided doesn't mean they're undecided. It means they are passionless. They haven't fallen in love with anyone. It means low turnout. It means they may not show up to vote. So --</s>O'BRIEN: And yet all the expectations that we're hearing are that this is actually going to be a high turnout caucus. I mean, we're we looking at 118,000, I think, four years ago. And now, some predictions I've seen have gone high as 150. So, if it's a lack of passion, why with those numbers?</s>SIMON CONWAY, TALK RADIO CONSERVATIVE: My question will be, what's changed since the straw poll? I mean, the straw poll was huge. A massive turnout. People were actually turning up at the gates of the straw poll and paying money to get in. This is unheard of.</s>CROWLEY: I'm going to tell you what I think is happening. I think when you look at -- when you look at the personal attributes that people apply to these candidates, where does Mitt Romney sell, electability? And Iowans are, by nature, they want to vote their heart. "I really like that Rick Santorum. He believes what I believe. I want him to be president." On the other hand, this is a party that's been out of office for four years. And more than their head says to them we need the guy that can actually beat President Obama. So, I think there's a struggle going on between my heart is with this guy, but my head tells me Mitt Romney.</s>CASTELLANOS: I think so too. And you know, you can have great passion but not a lot of bread. Campaigns like George McGovern's campaign and Barry Goldwater's had a lot of intensity. People showed up at straw polls, but turnout was low. They're small but powerful. We may see that here.</s>O'BRIEN: It will depend on the evangelical, I think, as well, which is what we're coding (ph) next. According to evangelical vote in Iowa was huge as you remember back in 2008. This year's GOP field is working very hard for the evangelical vote again, and some people say maybe even too hard. We'll take look at that. Back in just a moment.