Ivan Heads Toward Gulf Coast; Candidates & Battleground States
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everyone. Eight-thirty on the East Coast. It is 7:30 in the morning here in Mobile, Alabama. The winds are picking up, evident there by the flag blowing in the wind, but this is nothing compared to what we expect to get later in the day, perhaps six hours from now, maybe 12 hours from now, perhaps 18 hours away. But still Ivan a powerful Category 4 storm. Winds at 140 miles an hour. The latest coordinates came out about 30 minutes ago; this storm has not weakened one bit overnight. Expected to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast between Grand Isle, Louisiana and Apalachicola, Florida in the east in the Panhandle. That's an area about 300 miles long. And Ivan right now 180 miles out to sea southeast of New Orleans -- hurricane force winds extending 100 miles out from the eye. Tropical storm winds go 200 miles out from that -- so -- this is a monster yet again. Evacuations well underway; coming in late last night we could see from our airplane up the highways going north out of Mobile, nothing but taillights. People going north and going west trying to get out of the way of this storm. There are people who are sticking behind, but I could tell you based on what we saw in Frances in Florida just two weeks ago, many people leaving shared their concern about their own safety, but also that they stayed behind it makes their life downright miserable here. No air-conditioning, no electricity, no hot food. Many times there was no gas at the gasoline stations. That's the hardships that many people have to deal with for weeks after a storm like this comes through. We're waiting for Ivan here in Mobile this morning. Back to Heidi Collins in New York, as well -- Heidi, good morning again.</s>HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: All right, get out of dodge is what I say. Boy, it just doesn't sound like any fun at all. Thanks so much, Bill, for that. Also this half hour, the latest on how Major League Baseball is responding to that brawl in Oakland -- we showed it to you yesterday, but right now, first we're going to check on the stories now in the news. Spain's former prime minister will be called to testify about the train bombings last March. Pictures of the actual blast taken from security cameras were published in a Spanish newspaper yesterday. Jose Maria Aznar will testify to a commission investigating the attacks. The bombings took place just before national elections and may have cost the prime minister his job. A Kentucky prison has been brought under control this morning after inmates set three buildings on fire last night. The state police don't know how the prisoners started the fires. No reported injuries but guards are checking to see if any of the 800 prisoners escaped. California police have described for the first time the type of gun believed to have been used to kill two camp counselors last month. Authorities showed off a similar rifle yesterday. The killer used a Marlin 45-caliber rifle to murder Jason Allen and Lindsay Cutshall last month on a remote beach. The rifle is a type commonly used for hunting. The National Hockey League's collective bargaining agreement expires at 12:01 Thursday morning. Team owners are expected to announce a lock out of the players when the league's board of governors conclude an afternoon meeting in New York. The two sides have not spoken since talks broke off last Thursday. I hope they get that together. Like hockey.</s>HEMMER: And a Category 4 hurricane. We saw that with Charley. Nonetheless, though, this is a monster right now, 140-mile-an-hour winds, sustained at that with gusts even going higher. In the meantime, though, we have watched Ivan move its way across the Atlantic, strengthen along the way, cause enormous amounts of damage in places like Grenada, Jamaica, the Grand Caymans, and then the western part of Cuba. More than 68 killed along the way. Cuba still reeling from that. Here's Lucia Newman now reporting for us this morning.</s>LUCIA NEWMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The eye of Hurricane Ivan is long gone but not so its devastating effects. The sea continuing to flood Las Tunas, a small seaside village on the western tip of Cuba. I'm speaking to you from the top of a large water tank or cistern here, which is just barely above water. In fact, the beach here in Las Tunas is completely gone, it's been swallowed by the ocean and the waves are now coming into the back door of most of the houses. Residents were evacuated days in advance, unable to return now to pick up the pieces until the waters recede. Not that Ivan's ruthless hurricane force winds and torrential rains caught people here off guard. As he hangs out his wet clothes to dry, Pedro Paulo Guerra counts his blessings. His house and his family having survived the hurricane.</s>PEDRO PAULO GUERRA, HURRICANE SURVIVOR (through translator): We were warned and prepared so much in advance that anyone caught by surprise had to do it on purpose, he says.</s>NEWMAN: But his neighbor, Yamilia Perez, says no one can prepare you enough for such a monstrous storm.</s>YAMILIA PEREZ, HURRICANE SURVIVOR (thorough translator): It was an enormous hurricane, she says, so much wind and water. We were afraid.</s>NEWMAN: Roads are still flooded. Electricity still out, and the damage to crops, especially western Cuba's famous tobacco, is still being estimated. But perhaps because they were well prepared, or because the hurricane struck a relatively small portion of Cuba, there was not the loss of life witnessed on other Caribbean islands in Ivan's path. But the people of western Cuba who were victims of Hurricane Charley just a month ago a sense of relief in the knowledge that it could have been a lot worse. Lucia Newman, CNN, Cuba.</s>HEMMER: That is in Cuba. Now we await here live in Mobile, Alabama. By the way, behind me -- and running northward here, is the Mobile River. Late yesterday afternoon the Coast Guard, boat owners, yacht owners taking all their ships and water vessels up north into this river trying to get away from Ivan when the full fury of that storm comes on shore later tonight and into the early morning hours of Thursday. We're watching and waiting live in Mobile. Much more in a moment here. Back to you in -- to you now in New York now, Heidi Collins.</s>COLLINS: Yes, watching and waiting. Boy, that's for sure. Bill Hemmer thanks so much for that. Want to turn now to politics. Joining us from Washington this morning our resident debaters, Democratic strategist Victor Kamber with the Kamber Group. Vic, hello to you.</s>VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Hi, Heidi, how are you?</s>COLLINS: I'm great. And Cliff May, former RNC Communications Director now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracy. Cliff, good morning to you as well.</s>CLIFF MAY, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: Good morning, Heidi, good morning Vic.</s>COLLINS: You know we've been looking at these battleground states and the polls there very, very closely here on AMERICAN MORNING. Right now, we can say that Kerry is ahead in Michigan by six or seven points or so. And Bush is ahead in Wisconsin by about eight points. Cliff, what do you make of these newest polls? Do you think they're going to stick?</s>MAY: Well, what you have right now is a situation in which I think Senator Kerry has got the harder hand to play. He is behind in the polls, not by a huge amount, but by a significant amount more than the margin of error, generally speaking. That means he needs to do one of two things. He needs to either change the debate, move it to a place where he benefits. Or when it comes to the actual debates, when they actually face each other, he needs to do it very well, probably needs a knockout punch. The dynamics need to change for Kerry to get back ahead.</s>COLLINS: It's true, Vic, isn't it, that the margin of error at least in the other polls that we've seen all along has been -- made things even closer? It's just showing more of a gap now.</s>KAMBER: Well, I think what you're going to see is in the 10, 12, 15 states that are considered pivotal and marginal they're still going to fluctuate up and down and they are within the margin of error. The -- where the gain for Bush has been and I don't mean to minimize it, has been in states like -- his own states like Texas, Utah -- where he's gained tremendously -- and in states -- Kerry states like California and New York where the lead has shrunk. So, where Kerry was 17 points up in New York he's down to 12 or where he was 15 points up in California he's down to nine still leading. So, the -- why Bush's margins are as high as they are at this point, six, seven points speaks much more to the national picture but on a state by state basis you're going to get just what you got today. One state for Kerry, one state for Bush, and until the debates, until this campaign is fully engaged, frankly, I think it's going to be close right up to the end.</s>COLLINS: So, you don't think it's anything different about Wisconsin then, which was won by Gore back in 2000 by 1 percentage point?</s>KAMBER: No, that's what I'm saying is I don't disagree with the poll that Bush is ahead there. All I'm saying is that I think three weeks ago Kerry was ahead or equal. I'm not sure I believe that that number won't change. I think three weeks ago there -- the Bush people were claiming that they could win Michigan. I think they were within one point either up or down. I think Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, West Virginia -- all those what I call marginal states where the pivotal states you're going to see the kind of fluctuations that we're seeing. We're not going to see them in California, New York, Texas, Utah. I think those states are won or lost for the candidate of your choice.</s>COLLINS: All right, let's talk now a little bit more about the National Guard service, an issue that is still out there. There is in fact a video that the Democrats are running on the DNC Web site that talks about -- at least insinuates that the president did get help and did have some strings pulled in order to get him in to the National Guard during the Vietnam War of course. It also includes a sound bite now from "60 Minutes" -- the whole discussion of the candidates Vietnam War record has been problematic for John Kerry then why are the Democrats, Vic, keeping it alive?</s>KAMBER: Well, I think -- one I give the credit to the Republicans for over the years having learned to use alternative media to make a threshold. This use of the Web site, use of this one issue when you're in a very close race you're looking to move very small margins of people. Probably more people will watch this show today than will ever switch on the Web site and see that exact video or that thing whatever is going to be playing. But for those who do if you take the partisans on both sides aside you may move a few hundred people, a few thousand people and frankly if you take six, eight, ten issues like this and move people you have won the election. There is a credibility question about George Bush and the Republicans -- Democrats are trying to exploit it.</s>COLLINS: Why run it, then?</s>MAY: I think it is a big mistake. I really do. I think for the Democrats to continue to harp on what George Bush may or may not have done in the National Guard years ago, particularly with the whole scandal over whether CBS was using forged documents, even to keep the attention on Kerry's Vietnam service is just a terrible mistake. They need to move on from that and move to other issues on which Kerry needs to be very clear and try to convince voters and I really think the Democrats and I'm not sure Vic disagrees with me here -- are making a big mistake by harping on this over and over again.</s>KAMBER: And I've said to Cliff that the big picture there's no question -- it's jobs, it's the economy, it's terrorism. But I'm saying on the marginal issues you need to keep hitting away.</s>MAY: This is not a marginal issue. They're making this a big issue.</s>COLLINS: We're going to have to leave it there, gentlemen. Cliff May and Victor Kamber. Thanks so much as always.</s>KAMBER: Thank you, Heidi.</s>MAY: Thank you Heidi.</s>COLLINS: Still to come this morning a new product that virtually ensures you'll always have a working flashlight on hand. Andy is "Minding Your Business" on that, plus, people along the Gulf Coast bracing for Ivan but are they ready for a medical crisis when the storm hits? Dr. Sanjay Gupta tells us how you can prepare ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.