Hunt for al Qaeda Beyond Afghanistan
JIM CLANCY, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The war against terror, still being waged in Afghanistan. It's aim: still to find Osama bin Laden and members of his al Qaeda network. And hopes are still pinned on tracking him through an unlikely source.</s>DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: It's going to be a scarp of information from some person in some country.</s>CLANCY: But in which country? The U.S. military is now looking at other theaters of operation, countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, Somalia, Yemen have been named. On this edition of</s>Q&A;: beyond Afghanistan, the hunt for al Qaeda.</s>CLANCY (on camera): Hello and welcome. I'm Jim Clancy and this is Q&A.; Tonight, an around the world look at the search for al Qaeda both within and outside of Afghanistan's borders. In Afghanistan, the roundup of al Qaeda members, the searching of caves, and some unpleasant discoveries. CNN's Bill Hemmer is in Kandahar. We first asked how the U.S. military campaign there was changing.</s>BILL HEMMER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Special forces right now have really picked their pockets, really picked their targets in different parts of the country and I think the best evidence of that is what is happening and what is just essentially winding down also in eastern Afghanistan. The Pentagon saying after eight intense days of bombing they've basically flattened that rather large terrorist training camp. We can anticipate, I believe, in talking with military sources, that that is the root the military campaign will take. Once they find another target, they'll go after that one and then eventually check off their list one by one -- Jim.</s>CLANCY: Bill, a little closer to home, close to the runway next to which you sleep, reports that they're finding arms.</s>HEMMER: Yeah, Jim, last Thursday night was the first shipment of detainees out to Cuba. It was about the time that cargo plane was leaving here that shots rang out and were fired just a couple of hundred of yards from where the marines are dug in. Machine gun fire and sniper fire. We had about three-and-a-half hours here where everything was pretty much battened down. The runway was closed here and the Marines and the 101st Airborne took guard. Now we know late yesterday, apparently seven other individuals were spotted in that same area, Jim, and when they went out to patrol they didn't find any individuals, but they found a whole lot of weapons, weapons cache there with rocket propelled grenades and mortar fuses. They flattened those buildings in which they found those devices and also they helped seal and implode, basically, a number of cave entrances as well that they think that intruders might be using to penetrate this base. That all just came out just a few short hours ago here in Kandahar -- Jim.</s>CLANCY: Now, were those arms there last Thursday?</s>HEMMER: Apparently they weren't. They say they did a pretty extensive search not only Thursday, but also through like the weekend. In fact, when the second shipment left two nights ago, we saw humvees patrolling that same area. Their lights were on at night. We saw two, maybe three, patrolling the area. They indicate to us that all this stuff was fresh and new, so apparently the word we're getting is that it's been sneaked in over the past few days. That's the word we're getting from the military here -- Jim.</s>CLANCY: It would appear from the evidence that you're describing that somebody is planning to try, one way or another, to hit that base.</s>HEMMER: Yeah, I think you're dead on, Jim. Whether it's al Qaeda or Taliban I cannot say and they cannot either at this point. They being the U.S. military. What's interesting to note about that, Jim, though, is that there is a lot of territory here off the regular road, Highway 4, which runs right outside the main entrance to the base here in Kandahar. A lot of dirt roads that run off the side. A lot of ravines, low and naturally hidden, very difficult to defend. And the other point on that, Jim, is the basic security of the base here is described in two parts, the center and the exterior. The center is guarded by the U.S. military and its coalition forces here. And the exterior then, the outside, is then guarded by the ATF, the anti-Taliban fighters. It was in that area where the concern was raised and now we're hearing from the Marines here that the security perimeter will be expanded to include that very area we were describing, about the weapons being found about 24 hours ago.</s>CLANCY: We want to measure a little bit -- you've got about coming on 400 detainees here. Are there Afghans among them? Is it mostly foreigners in terms of people from outside Afghanistan, that are believed not to be tied with the Taliban but with al Qaeda?</s>HEMMER: Yeah, Jim, the latest numbers we have, 19 new ones came in last night. 19 new detainees. Now 380 on deck here in Kandahar. We are told through sources -- and again, that facility is absolutely kept off-guard to anybody who wants to go inside other than military or the international Red Cross. No journalist can enter in there. But speaking through sources, they indicate the greater majority are Arabs, and they picked up a lot from Pakistan. The mention Yemen as well. We got the report that possibly six British Arabs are in the mix somewhere between here and Guantanamo Bay. And also, as I mention that, Jim, they continue to conclude through sources that in talking with these detainees, that they think they had good hard evidence, once again, that some of these detainees had plans one day very soon to travel to the United States and carry out terrorist attacks and kill Americans. That's the word we're getting here. Also, Jim, 380 here, I mentioned that number -- we anticipate all to go eventually to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.</s>CLANCY: All right, Bill. Thank you.</s>CLANCY: Well, another country that's being looked at: Somalia. The United States says it is one of the lawless countries that could provide perfect protection for terrorists. While Somalis say they harbor no terrorists, a United States fact-finding mission could be sent to check it out. CNN senior international correspondent Christiane Amanpour is in Mogadishu. We asked her how the members of any fact-finding mission could go there and tell if there are terrorists there or not.</s>CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, what they're trying to do as best as I can gather is trying to set up contacts with various different tribal leaders. They've gone to the south of Somalia, where they're talking to certain tribal leaders who are against the ruling transitional government here in Mogadishu. And they're also talking to this group here in Mogadishu. Basically, what they're trying to do is see whether they can form alliances ala Afghanistan, ala Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, to try to see whether they can have proxies on the ground in order for them not to have to intervene personally with troops. And also not to have to bomb. Because it seems increasingly unlikely that there would be the kind of targeting necessary here for U.S. bombs. And so, what we've been told is that they're having discussions on how to keep surveillance up, how to make sure there's no infiltration by al Qaeda or other terrorists. And from what we've been told by the president of what is known here as the transitional national government, they have been told that they believe the United States has given them a clean bill of health. Now, that's what they believe.</s>CLANCY: Now, when you look at the situation, the president of the transitional government, President Abdiqassim Salad Hassan, really doesn't have any power. It doesn't have any control over any territory. The warlords do. Will the United States pursue a policy of offering rewards for al Qaeda leaders or rewards for al Qaeda operatives as a means of carrying out its war on terrorism there?</s>AMANPOUR: Well, that's certainly an option. Of course, everybody here slightly humorously says that should anybody such as Osama bin Laden turn up here, then they would rush to hand him over, because that $25 million that is on his head is simply too good to pass up. What people here are saying is that even though the transitional government only controls parts of Mogadishu and has a very tenuous grip on that, what people are saying is that any, quote, "foreign terrorist" would immediately be noticed here, that clan loyalties and local loyalties are much stronger here then they would be in terms of trying to protect any, quote, "foreign terrorists" that came here. And so, it would be impossible for an Osama bin Laden or even high members of the al Qaeda network to come here without being immediately noticed.</s>CLANCY: We noticed, too, that the United Nations, once again trying to bring some different Somali factions together to talk about peace. Can there really be a solution to security problems in Somalia without the overall national solution, the reconciliation that has eluded that country for almost 20 years?</s>AMANPOUR: Well, that is uppermost in everybody's minds here. Just a short survey of part of Mogadishu today told us what we heard, really, in Afghanistan, that people here are desperately tired of this war, of the 11 years of factional fighting, of the fact that every Tom, Dick and Harry on the street is armed. And the fact that there is no security, or very little security, here. And what they want, what the people themselves want, is an end to this. Now, the U.N. is also sending in and has right now a security team trying to assess security in order to see whether they will introduce their humanitarian programs. And what they're saying is that initial reports and initial consultations throughout this country are fairly positive. They're talking in guardedly optimistic ways about eventually being able to bring back their humanitarian operations here. And what people are telling us that Somalia is maturing, that really people and the warlords are getting tired of the anarchy and the destabilization and the threat that is hanging over them, and that perhaps this may be a better time than any in recent memory -- may be a time, with a bit of outside help, to push them towards reconciliation. And there are, still, as you mentioned, those reconciliation talks are being sponsored, particularly in Nairobi, and that's what people here are hoping for. It's a very long shot, of course, given the history, but people here, incredibly, are saying that they would welcome the United States back despite the bitter history of the early 90's, that they want the United States to come here and help reconstruct. Again, they're looking at Afghanistan and the model there and they wish that they could have that kind of attention.</s>CLANCY: Is there any evidence of al Qaeda operatives there in Somalia?</s>AMANPOUR: Well, the Somali transitional president says absolutely not. Everybody here we talked to here in Somalia, in Mogadishu, says no. The United States political officer for Somalia, based in Nairobi, did come here earlier this month and was quoted thereafter as saying he did not believe there were any centers associated with al Qaeda here in Mogadishu, but perhaps it was possible that there may be some individuals with links to al Qaeda living here in Somalia. Certainly, nobody believes that any top rank al Qaeda operatives have managed to escape here. If any have escaped here, they may be low level operatives. And we're getting blanket denials from those who have gone to areas where training camps may have been located by other Somali factions - - we're getting blanket denials that any of those training camps still exist.</s>CLANCY: All right. Christiane Amanpour, reporting to us there from Mogadishu. Thank you, Christiane.</s>CLANCY: Well, we've traveled now -- we've taken a look at Afghanistan. We've taken a look at Somalia. If it's part of the war against terror -- they aren't saying so, but U.S. forces are already on the ground in the Philippines. Ostensibly, it's for military exercises known as shoulder-to-shoulder and from its location to its timing, there is little doubt it is aimed at the fight against Abu Sayyaf rebels who have ties to al Qaeda. CNN's Maria Ressa is following developments and closely watching the immediate aims of this mission.</s>MARIA RESSA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's interesting because the Philippine government has been very, very cautious in how it presents this. The main bulk of the force will be trickling in over the next few weeks. The war games are set to begin mid-February. It could last anywhere from six months to a year. The problem that the Philippine government has here, of course, is the fear that the presence of so many armed U.S. troops on Philippine soil could trigger a nationalist backlash -- Jim.</s>CLANCY: A nationalist backlash, but at the same time many people concerned about the violence. There was renewed violence on Jolo Island when there was a demonstration this day, wasn't there?</s>RESSA: Yes, there was. The Philippine military is really facing three different armed insurgent groups right now in that area. The one in Jolo today was actually former Muslim rebels who are loyal to a governor, Nur Misuari. This group actually mounted a rebellion against Mrs. Arroyo's government last month. That rebellion was quelched relatively quickly. He escaped to Malaysia. He has just been extradited back to the Philippines. The Philippine government fears that his supporters may try to do something else again. So there's that group. There is also another group, the MILF, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. Now this group also has historic links to al Qaeda. In fact, when Osama bin Laden was tracked when he visited the Philippines in 1988, the group he met with was the MILF. Now, the MILF was in conflict with the Philippine government. There are very tenuous peace negotiations going on now, but there has been sporadic fighting. So, Philippine military is really fighting on three fronts if you look at it around that small area.</s>CLANCY: Have the groups themselves, any or all of the three, felt any pressure, felt any renewed need to change their strategy as a result of the war on terrorism announced by Washington?</s>RESSA: Well, the Philippine military really had the Abu Sayyaf, in a sense, on the run. This war started way before September 11th. Months before that, there was an all-out war that was declared by Mrs. Arroyo against the Abu Sayyaf. And you recall, this began as early as April 23, 2000. Abu Sayyaf had historic links to al Qaeda, was trained by a man named Ramzi Yousef, who was convicted for the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. Now, these links brought to the present day -- the group lost much of its Islamic fundamentalism and became known for kidnapping for ransom. The United States government estimated that it got maybe $20 million from ransom in 2000. Now, it also thinks that much of that money went to weapons smuggling and helping spread this across the region. The other reason why it could also be targeted by the United States is it specifically targeted Americans. It beheaded several of the hostages it has kidnapped, including an American, Guillermo Sobero, and continues to hold two American hostages now. These two American hostages were kidnapped May 27th and as part of the reason that the United States -- that Mrs. Arroyo declared this all-out war against the Abu Sayyaf.</s>CLANCY: All right. Maria Ressa there, reporting to us from Manilla. Thank you, Maria.</s>CLANCY: From the Philippines to Somalia, still in Afghanistan, the war against terror; how is it changing? And is all of this bringing the United States any closer to its real goal of bringing Osama bin Laden to justice? That's still to come, here on Q&A.; Don't go away.</s>CLANCY: Welcome back to Q&A.; We're examining how the war on terror is expanding around the globe. So, too, may be the hunt for Osama bin Laden and other key leaders of al Qaeda who have thus far eluded capture. Joining us now for more on the changing nature of the conflict and the goal that remains the same, from Washington, Terry Taylor, president and executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Along side him, Charles Pena, a senior defense policy analyst with the Cato Institute. And I want to begin with you, Charles, if I may, and just ask you how you see this war on terror. Where is it going next?</s>CHARLES PENA, SENIOR DEFENSE POLICY ANALYST, CATO INSTITUTE: Well, I fear that it may have to go everywhere. If you believe the latest news report that the CIA is admitting that Osama bin Laden has probably escaped the region -- not just Afghanistan into Pakistan, but the region in general, then the manhunt will now have to go worldwide. Clearly, the war was going to be very broad regardless, looking at countries like Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, the Philippines and Malaysia. But now to try and find bin Laden, clearly we're going to have to spread this war all over the globe.</s>CLANCY: Terry Taylor, was it too much to assume that you were going to be able to go into one location, say Kandahar, and find Osama bin Laden holed up?</s>TERENCE TAYLOR, PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Well, of course, I think we were far too optimistic to think that. I mean, it was always the hope, that that might happen. It's still possible, of course, that Osama bin Laden is still in Afghanistan. This is the real challenge facing the United States and it's allies in this campaign. And Charles is absolutely right. This is going to be a global effort, a worldwide effort. Looking at members of the group which number into thousands, some of whom, of course, may no longer support the activity. But they are a very larger number who are spread around the world, in the countries that Charles has mentioned. But also in Europe and even in the United States as well. So it's a real challenge.</s>CLANCY: Charles, when you look at the situation, few people imagined that the processing of Afghanistan would go as quickly as it did. Now that it is expanding, moving on, what effect does this have on the morale of al Qaeda operatives on perhaps even their desperation to strike out?</s>PENA: Well, two things. One, I think obviously there is going to be some adverse effect on their morale as a result of the military operations in Afghanistan. But you have to remember, these other cells are still active. They're still operating around the world. And if in fact bin Laden is still a free man, that will do nothing but boost their morale. So, it's a little bit of both, and I think what's going to be most difficult about this next phase of the operation is that it's probably largely not going to be military in nature. It's not like we're going to repeat Afghanistan all around the world. And as Terry mentioned, a lot of the places where these cells are operating are in fact in friendly and allied countries. So it's going to become much more of a detective operation work and a police manhunt more than anything else.</s>CLANCY: Terry Taylor, it is going to become awfully expensive too. We see already the United States, Europe and others saying, obviously, to deal with some of the causes of all of this, at least to deal with the root causes of why Osama bin Laden or others might be able to recruit, the economic problems that many of these countries face, whether it's in central Asian republics or whether it is in the Philippines or in Somalia. We heard all of this from our correspondents earlier. Will the taxpayers go along?</s>TAYLOR: Well, this is absolutely right. I think that's a very long- term task, to try to remove the root causes. Clearly, the effort should be focused on failed states, I mean, like an enormous amount of effort is being put into Afghanistan, and there should be no let up on that. We can't just give up and walk away or let the efforts peter out. Somalia is another place where a lot of effort has to be made. But I think, you know, it's going to take decades to resolve the economic problems. You've got to remember, though, that some of the supporters of al Qaeda come from very rich families and wealthy backgrounds and professional backgrounds too. So its not just a question of tackling the root causes of poverty and so on. It's a much wider philosophical argument that has to be put across the net.</s>CLANCY: Charles Pena, give us a little bit of a more moderate view, here. Where do we take this war against terror next? Obviously, as we've heard from the correspondents, it is moving in some other directions. But what will be the next phase? Will it be a mixture of military and intelligence work?</s>PENA: Well, I think in those countries, where we believe that al Qaeda may be holed up and where there may be training camps that are still active, you might see some of the precision bombing that we have seen ongoing inside Afghanistan. But I think by and large the countries that we would likely target have learned a lesson from Afghanistan and to a great extent I think they're trying to clean up the problem on their own, because their incentive is to not have the United States come in and conduct a military operation. And again, I think the manhunt is really going to cover the globe and, again, go into countries that are our friends and our allies, and it's going to not be a military operation in those cases. It's going to be a cooperative police and detective effort. And whereas Afghanistan really was a unilateral United States military operation, as we move this out from Afghanistan, it's going to have to be much more multilateral and cooperative in nature.</s>CLANCY: Terry Taylor, I want to get your take on that. I mean, do you agree that this is going to be the next wave forward, how you handle this?</s>TAYLOR: Indeed. I think maintaining the cooperation, if you like -- it's called a coalition and I suppose that's what it is -- is going to be the real challenge facing the United States and its allies as we move along. I think the most sensitive area, where there have been great strides, is in the business of cooperating on intelligence sharing. This is the key. And of course, that's a very sensitive subject, and that's why it's very, very important for the president and major allies like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, and so on, need to work together to maintain the cooperation. We've seen extraordinary advances in cooperation between the United States and Russia. That, I think, needs to be developed and maintained, which all depends on the wider political climate of United States - Russian relations, for example, so it's a really tough task. But I would put intelligence cooperation right at the top of the list of international cooperation right now.</s>PENA: And I would add to that, Jim, that there are some signs that the United States - Russian relationship, which has been warming between President Bush and President Putin, showing some signs of fraying at the edges and some of that is a direct result of some United States actions, most recently in the nuclear posture review, which revealed that we might choose to store weapons and those wouldn't count toward the reduction, so the United States might in fact have an arsenal larger than that was agreed to by both presidents.</s>CLANCY: Charles, one final question to you here, to both of you -- just a couple of seconds left. Are we going to capture Osama bin Laden? Will the United States catch him? Will Europe catch him?</s>PENA: I would say, we've been trying to track down the person responsible for the bombing of the Atlanta Olympic games here in the United States and have not been successful, and we assume that he is here inside our own country.</s>CLANCY: OK. Terry...</s>TAYLOR: I hope so. I hope we catch him, but it's not just Osama bin Laden. You must be careful not to personalize it. It's a movement.</s>CLANCY: All right. There we are. Terry Taylor, Charles Pena -- thanks to both of you for being with us on Q&A.; That's our report for now. The news continues here on CNN. END TO ORDER VIDEOTAPES AND TRANSCRIPTS OF CNN INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMING, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE THE SECURE ONLINE ORDER FROM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com