Are There Such Things As Curses, Cubs Fans Want To Know
ZAHN: We are joining you from Vatican City tonight, where Pope John Paul II marked his 25th anniversary today, telling a packed crowd at St. Peter's Square he will continue his work of love. We have much more to come from here, but first back to Soledad O'Brien in New York -- Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: Thanks, Paula. Here are some of the headlines you need to know. The Pentagon hopes to cut the number of troops in Iraq significantly in the coming year -- about 140,000 military men and women are in Iraq or neighboring Kuwait right now. If things go well, the total could drop to 113,000. One of the twin Egyptian boys who had been joined at the head seems to be recovering more slowly than his brother. The more active twin has moved an arm and a leg and is showing some signs that he can breathe on his own. The other twin is still in a drug-induced coma and may have experienced mild seizures. And President Bush has left on a trip to Asia and Australia. Senior White House correspondent John King looks at where the president is going and the challenge he'll face.</s>JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The main event is an annual economic summit. But the biggest challenges for the president could be winning support for his approach to Iraq and North Korea. Mr. Bush is visiting Japan; the Philippines; Thailand, for the annual Asian-Pacific Economic Summit; Singapore; Indonesia and Australia. One urgent gold is win a major commitment from South Korea to build on Japan's new multi-billion dollar pledge to help with Iraq's reconstruction. The president wants the APEC leaders to warn North Korea about its nuclear ambitions and he will discuss plans for another round of six-party talks with the North. Two key players in those discussions, China and Russia, want Mr. Bush to offer security assurances to North Korea. But he is under conservative pressure at home not to offer any concessions until North Korea agrees to end its nuclear weapons program.</s>BALBINA HWANG, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: For North Korea, demands of a bilateral security treaty of some sort really will only serve their purposes of manipulation.</s>KING: U.S. military aid to the Philippines to help battle the Abu Sayaff network is just one reminder that Southeast Asia is a critical front in the war on terrorism, and security is now a critical issue for the 21 economies represented at the annual summit.</s>CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Economics and security are inextricably linked. You only have to look at what happened in a place like Bali, when you had the terrorist attack there, you can see the economy and terrorism are linked.</s>KING: The Bangkok summit is being held amid extraordinary security, and Mr. Bush hopes for new steps designed to cut off terrorist movements and financing. (on camera): The president told reporters before leaving he understands that many in Southeast Asia, especially Muslims, are suspicious of U.S. motives in the war on terrorism. Mr. Bush said he hopes this trip helps change those perceptions, but also said that religious and government leaders in the region have a responsibility, as he put it, "to not led a few killers define their faith or their countries." John King, CNN, San Bernardino, California.</s>O'BRIEN: Maybe it's because the World Series is played in the same month as Halloween, or maybe it's just that some teams are cursed. How else can you explain a fan in the stands at the Cubs game last Tuesday? Or the ball along with the Red Sox's chances going through Bill Buckner's legs back in 1986? Or this -- the 12-year-old boy who reached over the wall that deflected the ball, along with Baltimore's chances of going to the 1996 World Series? Curses, right? Well, let's review the evidence this evening with satirist Andy Borowitz, who joins us from San Francisco. And also Michael Shermer. He is the publisher of "Skeptic" magazine and the author of the book "Why People Believe Weird Things." And believe it or not, he's in L.A. for us this evening. Good evening, gentlemen. Nice to see you.</s>ANDY BOROWITZ, SATIRIST: Good to be here.</s>O'BRIEN: Thank you. Andy, let's begin with you. Believe in curses or not?</s>BOROWITZ: Well, you know, I'm not a scientist like Michael, but I do kind of believe in curses, because I'm from Cleveland. And so that makes me, I guess, kind of a loserologist in a way. We have a long tradition of losing mysteriously there.</s>O'BRIEN: Well -- yes,so -- are the Cleveland Indians just a bad team or cursed?</s>BOROWITZ: No, no, no. This is a very important distinction to make. When a bad team loses, that's not a curse. That's a just bad team playing up to low expectations. When a good team loses in a really freaky way, that's a curse.</s>O'BRIEN: All right. Well, Michael, your job is to debunk curses and myths, so I want to take a look and set up some moments -- relive some really bad moments and have you kind of weigh in for me on these. 1986 World Series -- we showed the pictures just a moment ago -- Red Sox versus the Mets -- the ball dribbles right through Bill Buckner's legs. Many people would say obvious, obvious curse.</s>MICHAEL SHERMER, PUBLISHER, SKEPTIC MAGAZINE: Yeah, poor Mr. Buckner. You know, he used to be a Dodger out here in L.A., and he's a fine player, and sadly he'll be remembered for that for the rest of his career, his life. Really what's going on here is just pure, superstitious behavior. Nobody talks about the curse of the Montreal Expos, or in our case, the curse of the Dodgers, who have one of the richest payrolls in baseball and they can't even get to the playoffs. What we're really talking about here is the fact that people are pattern-seeking primates. We just look for connections between things. We look for simple explanations that -- that can cover what are really more complex explanations. So it's easier to say there's a curse rather than looking at the probabilities of any team, no matter how good they are, actually getting to the top and winning the World Series.</s>O'BRIEN: Well..</s>SHERMER: There's another famous curse in sports -- the so-called curse of being on the cover of "Sports Illustrated," and that anybody who makes it to the cover, then their career tends to go down. The reason for that is because it's next to impossible to get on the cover, because of all the different things that have to come together that make you a champion, and the chances of all those things coming together again are very slim, and so you really are at the peak and you have nowhere to go but down.</s>O'BRIEN: Mike...</s>SHERMER: So it's really more of a probabilities things.</s>O'BRIEN: I got to tell you, there are lots of pattern-seeking primates in Chicago who are looking at what happened just a couple of days ago with the Cubs five outs away, basically and a fan interferes. Curse?</s>SHERMER: Yes, but -- but instead of blaming the fan, what about the eight runs that the Chicago pitching allowed, subsequent to the fan interference? That's obviously really the cause.</s>BOROWTIZ: If I can jump in here -- you know, I didn't mention this, Soledad, but I'm actually the editor of "Pattern-Seeking Primate" magazine. And...</s>O'BRIEN: I subscribe to that.</s>BOROWTIZ: Yes, I think most of us do.</s>BOROWTIZ: And as a pattern-seeking primate, I really think there are such things as curses, especially in sports.</s>O'BRIEN: All right. Well, Andy, if the cubs are cursed, and we know it's because of this billy goat curse -- Billy Goat wasn't allowed into Wrigley Field, blah, blah, blah-blah, we all know the story now -- should they just bring the billy goat back and somehow turn the curse around?</s>BOROWTIZ: Absolutely. I mean, here's a good reason, just on a practical way, and I think that Michael would agree -- if you bring a billy goat into the stands and a ball is coming towards the billy goat, he's going to get out of the way. He's not going to try to grab the ball. So even from a scientifics points of view, having a goat there makes more sense.</s>O'BRIEN: All goats, no fans.</s>SHERMER: Fill the stands with goats, yes. Yes. Now that's a true scientific experiment. OK. I'll do that.</s>O'BRIEN: Andy, you're sounding more like a scientist every single minute that we talk. But seriously -- you know, when you talk about the curse of the Bambino, how do you reverse that one? You can't bring Babe Ruth back, right?</s>BOROWITZ: Well, you know, George Steinbrenner -- George Steinbrenner -- if he had a curse on his team, he would just pay it off. And that's the difference. I mean, I think that sometimes sheer money can be brought to bare on one of these curses, I think.</s>O'BRIEN: Michael, I'm going to give you the final word for just two seconds. What should they do to reverse the curse, even if it's just a curse in their own minds?</s>SHERMER: They should win tonight and go on to the World Series and beat the Florida Marlins. That's what it takes -- talent and skill and a little bit of good luck.</s>O'BRIEN: Andy Borowitz...</s>BOROWTIZ: And knock wood. Knock wood.</s>O'BRIEN: Andy Borowitz and Michael Shermer, nice to see you guys. Thanks.</s>SHERMER: Thanks.</s>BOROWITZ: Good to be here.</s>O'BRIEN: In just a moment, Paula's going to rejoin us from Rome, where she talks with one of Pope John Paul II's biographers. And in this sea of pilgrims is a woman with a special story.