Two Powers Fighting for One Throne; Brexit Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place; E.U. Rejects U.K.'s Bid To Reopen Brexit Negotiations; Guaido To New York Times, Maduro's Re-election Illegitimate; Venezuela In Crisis; Trade Talks
NICK WATT, CNN ANCHOR: As the power struggle intensifies in Venezuela, protesters take to the streets once again and the man fighting over the presidency, each trying to get the military on their side. The U.S. president picks a fight with his own intelligence chiefs, calling them naive, and suggesting they go back to school. And they are sitting down face-to-face but mistrust hangs over day two of the high-stake talks to end the U.S.-China trade war. Hello and welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. I'm Nick Watt and this is CNN newsroom. The battle for power in Venezuela plays out in the streets of Caracas and cities around the country. But the key to control likely rests in Venezuela's military barracks. Self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido is urging the military to abandon Nicolas Maduro and support him instead. In a New York Times op-ed Guaido writes "we have had clandestine meetings with members of the armed forces and security forces." And he says "Mr. Maduro's time is running out." Guaido spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday and the White House says Mr. Trump reaffirmed his support. The U.S. also welcoming Guaido's top envoy in Washington who later spoke to CNN's Christiane Amanpour.</s>CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: I get it. I know you're saying this is a fight between dictatorship and democracy. Just explain for people who are watching and they think, well, hang on a second. President Maduro claims that he won the elections. And Juan Guaido has not been elected president. Describe how you are going to square that circle and how you are going to resolve what many may have as a question mark.</s>CARLOS ALFREDO VECCHIO, VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION CHARGE D'AFFAIRES TO THE U.S.: Well, we have to keep in mind that Maduro conducted a fake election last year in order to keep six more years in power. So that was declared by the OAS in the entire American system as an illegal as an illegal election and that's why he's no longer the president. He doesn't have authority to conduct the presidency of Venezuela. Given that we don't have president in the constitutional order and following our Constitution under article 233, when you don't have constitutional president, the president of the National Assembly has to assume the competences of the president. So that's why we are claiming the legitimacy of Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela.</s>WATT: Let's some much-needed perspective on the protests and the developments in Venezuela with Brett Bruen. He is the former director of global engagement at the White House under President Obama and he joins us now from Washington. So, Brett, Maduro is claiming that the U.S. interest here is oil, that Trump wants Venezuelan oil and he is saying that this is going to become some sort of South American Vietnam. I mean, what is the Trump administration's motivation. This is not an administration really famed for an altruistic foreign policy.</s>BRETT BRUEN, PRESIDENT, THE GLOBAL SITUATION ROOM: No, it isn't. And this quite frankly, I would say even as an alum of the Obama White House is a bright spot in what is otherwise a pretty bleak Trump foreign policy. They're talking about issues like human rights and democracy here. And Maduro's attempt at portraying this is some effort to take Venezuelan oil I think is quite tired and most of the world sees through those arguments because he is standing on top of human misery. I mean, we're talking about a country that has rapidly move down the human development charts in the last several years as he and his military officers have enrich themselves.</s>WATT: There were diplomats, Guaido diplomats in Washington today who met with some Trump officials. Let's just hear a little bit of what Carlos Vecchio, one of them had to say to Christiane Amanpour a little bit earlier.</s>VECCHIO: In my view, the majority of the military forces are with us. They are just stop by small elite on the top of the military institution, but at the end of the day they are Venezuelans there. They have family. They are suffering the same thing that we are suffering as ordinary people. So, at the end of day in my view, with this pressure there that we are putting on the streets from our institution of the National Assembly and from the international community. I hope they can just be there in the right side and support what our Constitution says.</s>WATT: So, Brett, is Carlos Vecchio right, is the army the key to all of this?</s>BRUEN: The army is playing a key role. But I would also add that up until now, whether it is Guaido's government or the United States and the international community that they're standing with. We've heard a lot of words. Now is the moment to show. We need to see action. We need to see the results of what the international community Juan Guaido is able to deliver. So, that will be a key factor in the coming hours and days is whether or not some of the tangible elements of what they are discussing are going to be born out in international aid, in other changes within the military officers that are starting to peel off. Because right now, while it is comforting to hear that officers have sympathy for Guaido we need to see it.</s>WATT: And finally, just quickly. How do you think this is going to play out, is Maduro going to successfully claim to power at this time?</s>BRUEN: I think that every day that passes Juan Guaido is still able to command people out in the streets is a more likely scenario that he will eventually take power. I think Maduro's days are numbered.</s>WATT: Brett joining us from Washington, we really appreciate your insights and your time. Thanks a lot.</s>BRUEN: Thank you.</s>WATT: Now oil prices are edging upward after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil company. For details, let's bring in CNN's money emerging markets editor, John Defterios live this hour in Abu Dhabi. John, Venezuelan production has dipped in recent years, but those new sanctions are still sending out some ripples.</s>JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: I suggest ripples but no tsunami by any stretch of the imagination, Nick. The latest prices show that the global benchmark is up about seven-tenth of 1 percent, although that is a one-month high, about $62 a barrel, and some change there. In the United States we see oil prices up about a half a percent. This is not a shock to the market because of the destruction of Venezuela's output. There are two factors at play, that is one of them, if you roll back the clock a decade, Venezuela is a major producer in the world at 3.2 million barrels a day. It's about a third of that right now. That's because the country has been starved for an investment. You had 15 years under Hugo Chavez and the last five, in particular, under Nicolas Maduro has been absolutely awful for the oil industry because nobody wants to invest because of the uncertainty and the hyperinflation. Number two, we're in the world right now where there is absolutely a lot of oil around because the U.S. has expanded its production by better than two million barrels in 2018 alone, about five million barrels over the last decade in the United States. In fact, there is so much oil around the Saudi Arabia and the other producers of OPEC and the other non-OPEC producer. Russia had to cut their output by 1.2 million barrels a day in December. But let's put some context in Venezuela. It's the largest drop of any country a major oil producer after World War II that did not have the impact of a war itself. It's an absolute destruction of two million barrels a day. It is unheard of, Nick, in the context of the oil industry.</s>WATT: John, if Maduro is ousted, if we -- if, you know, there is a new government in Venezuela still going to take a long time for oil production to ramp up again in the country, right?</s>DEFTERIOS: It would take a long time to ramp up, but the potential is there, Nick. This is the number one country in the world in terms of proven reserves. Its thick crude is not easy to refine but there is demand for that type of crude. Three hundred billion barrels under the ground and they have not realized its potential. That's absolutely certain. The other side of the story is the financial noose being tightened by the United States because of its U.S. Central Bank and the U.S. Treasury Department. They are chasing financial accounts of the Maduro government looking for gold around the world as well. So, I think the discussions behind the scene with Guaido and the military officials are look, you're been having the discussions and been very loyal to the Maduro government. This is what's in the pipeline if you decide to stay with him going forward. The noose will tighten which restrict financial dealings, and right now the U.S. purchases which is half of the 1.1 million barrels a day, the money is going to the National Assembly and not to the president and to the military. So, this is going to play in a very difficult way for Maduro as time rolls on here.</s>WATT: John Defterios in Abu Dhabi, thank you very much for those insights. Now the European Union is rejecting any possibility of reopening negotiations on Brexit. E.U. leaders have been critical of the U.K. for complaining about the Brexit deal that's on the table but they are offering no concrete ideas themselves. The impasse puts Britain's Theresa May we the proverbial rock and a hard place. The British government voted in favor of her going back to Brussels to renegotiate the sensitive Irish border issue. But E.U. leaders are saying that's not open for renegotiation. So, the prospect of a potentially chaotic no deal Brexit seems to grow by the day. Our Nina Dos Santos joins us now from London. Nina, what happens if Theresa May goes to Brussels, comes back to London empty-handed, then what?</s>NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPPONDENT: Well, that's the big question here. It is a high-stakes political staring game which could potentially have a rather nasty ending, especially considering these things are coming right down to the wire in terms of the timeframe with Brexit just around the corner of the 29 of March, just two months away. Now, on the one hand, the house earlier on this weekend the series of amendments express their wish for there to be a no -- to rule out to no deal, but in a nonbinding fashion. But on the other hand, there was another conflict amendment, as you rightly point out, suggesting that Theresa May go back to Brussels and trying to negotiate something that they have made very plain they do not wish to renegotiate. That leaves us facing the prospect of a no deal scenario. I've been taking a look at how bad that could that really be.</s>DOS SANTOS: It's the biggest question on Britain's minds and one that parliament is trying to make the country would not have to answer.</s>THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: The house did vote to reject no deal, but that cannot be --</s>DOS SANTOS: What would happen if the U.K. left the E.U. without a deal. The official predictions have been sobering from immediate shortages of food and medicines as ports brock up to 9 percent fall in GDP, a 30 percent drop in house prices and shop interest rate hikes. In other words, disaster, says this campaigner who fought for parliament to have the final say.</s>GINA MILLER, CAMPAIGNER & FOUNDER, LEAD NOT LEAVE: No deal will be an absolute catastrophe. No deal means no transition, so that means in the morning of the 30th of March everything would have to be in place, so we would have to start from scratch. And also, this idea that we are -- we will be able to replicate exactly the same is impossible. Because if you think about it, we are 65 million people compared to half a billion in the E.U. So, we just don't have the same clouds.</s>DOS SANTOS: But with unemployment to the 43-year low and exports still growing, Brexiteers say the country is well-equipped.</s>EDGAR MILLER, CONVENER, ECONOMISTS FOR FREE TRADE: It shouldn't be thought of as no deal. It should be thought of as a different deal. We in fact have generally referred to it as a world trade deal where you stop the obsession about trying to have a special arrangement with the</s>E.U. DOS SANTOS: The E.U.'s own research predicts the line share of growth over the next decade will come from outside the block and leavers want Britain to be able to capitalize on that trend.</s>E. MILLER: The biggest benefit is that you can do a free trade deals with all countries in the world. And we calculate that to be about 4 percent increase in GDP. Secondly, you have your own regulation that is tailored to the U.K., you can get rid of the debt hand of E.U. regulation. And we calculated that as about another 2 percentage points increase in</s>GDP. DOS SANTOS: Well, then a no deal Brexit ends up being a blessing or a curse depends to large extent and whether the U.K. can trade under World Trade Organization rule after leaving the E.U. Now, aside from the fact that that could make a whole range of goods including some of these clothes on this London high street, subject to significant tariffs, is also unclear is to whether the WTO rules today would need to be brought today with more modern aspects of the British economy.</s>G. MILLER: Leaving with no deal means leaving every single E.U. institution. And we would have to have those replicated on the morning of the 30th of March. So that's a medical's agency, a chemical's agency. The list goes on and on. We have not one ready.</s>DOS SANTOS: As ever with Brexit, the theory paints one picture, the practicalities and other, and until March the 29th, no one will really know if no deal is or isn't the way to go.</s>DOS SANTOS: Well, Nick, the prime minister's here official residence number 10 Downing Street she's been excepting a number of cabinet members who have come to see her today to try and find out which way forward they can go through this impasse. No point in going to Brussels it seems for the meantime, because of course, after conversations with Donald Tusk of the E.U. Council and also Leo Varadka, the Irish Taoiseach, they have made it plain that they are not willing to budge on that most contentious issue of the backstop. And until they do, the big question is whether we go from here. Back to you.</s>WATT: Fascinating stuff. Thanks, Nina. Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department says that Russia is altering and leaking evidence from Robert Mueller's investigation to try and discredit him. We'll explain jus ahead. Plus, Donald Trump slams his intelligence chiefs on Twitter after they publicly rebuke the number of his so-called foreign policy achievements.