U.S. Set To Sign Historic Agreement With Taliban
BLACKWELL: All right, to any moment now, representatives of the United States and the Taliban are expected to sign this historic agreement. With just a few minutes potentially away, you can see a live pictures here from Doha, Qatar. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, shaking hands, he's there witnessing the signing, but will not actually be signing the agreement. That's the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan will be actually putting pen to paper.</s>PAUL: Kylie Atwood is standing by in Washington. We want to start with Nic Robertson, though. He is live there in Doha, Qatar. I know that this agreement caps off more than a year of talks. But help us understand what is in this agreement, Nic, because I know that there are conditions that are set, and I'm wondering whose responsibility it is to monitor the Taliban's conditions to make sure they're doing what they're supposed to do to keep this agreement afloat?</s>NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Well, the understanding at the moment is that it is joint monitoring Afghan government, U.S. government, Taliban, but also there will be another international element on top of that. At its core, the agreement is that the United States will draw down its troops initially over about 130 days or so, drawdown to a level of 8,600. And then following that, we just heard from a NATO official in Kabul, saying that all foreign troops would leave Afghanistan over the next 18 months. But these timeframes are contingent on the Taliban doing their part. And one of the core things that the Taliban must do is turn on al- Qaeda and ISIS. And remembering that the Taliban gave sanctuary to al- Qaeda after the 911 attacks, and have continued to give them sanctuary until this day. So, this is a big shift for the Taliban that they are now committing to. But it also opens the door for peace talks that could begin as early -- as early March. Those peace talks would be between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Now, the Afghan government hadn't been party to these current thoughts and the signing between the U.S. and the Taliban, and already hurdles are being thrown up in terms of prisoner exchange. The Taliban expecting 5,000 of their prisoners to be released before they sit down with the Afghan government. The Afghan government already bulking that. There are hurdles in the way. But today, the mood in Doha is positive.</s>BLACKWELL: Nic, a question about this agreement. Again, we see Mike Pompeo here. The Afghans are pretty wary about this agreement and the ability for it to stand up. Ashraf Ghani, they're hosting Mark Esper, the defense secretary. It's part of the reason he's there today. Why is the U.S. so confident or at least more confident than the Afghan?</s>ROBERTSON: Well, I think when we heard from the White House yesterday that there's a political imperative to the talks with the Taliban, which is getting U.S. troops back home. And President Trump said he committed to that during his campaign for the presidential election 2016. That gives you an understanding of what underpins this. The Afghan government and I've been talking about senior Afghan government officials and people inside the Taliban to get their perspectives. The Afghan government's perspective is The Taliban are coming into this -- with a very triumphalist message that they are not telling their foot soldiers essentially, to be ready for long term peace. They're coming in -- into this thinking that they have a strong hand. Their narrative is that the Christians have been defeated, United States is leaving that they think the president of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani is weak. The Afghan government see the Taliban propaganda and see that as a point of concern that they don't believe and they're not sure that the Taliban are really committed to this process. But that's what this process is all about. I think it is key to understanding. It is a process that builds confidence and that's what this signing is about. It's coming after seven days of a reduction in violence was to build confidence. And there are other confidence-building steps along the way. But I don't think anyone should be in under any misapprehension at the moment about the strains that this can put on the current Afghan government and the dangers that if it all goes wrong. But positively for the United States, this does Indicate the drawdown of more US forces. And a lot of bloodshed has been spilt. A lot of blood has been spilt in Afghanistan to get to this point. So there's hope on all sides that this can go somewhere positive. It's no way an easy path.</s>PAUL: Kylie, I want to bring you into the conversation here there in Washington. Nic was just talking about this would fulfill a key promise from 2016 from President Trump to get some of the troops out of that region. But the president has been really adamant that Secretary of State Pompeo witness this, that he be there. What is the expectation from him, too -- in being there? Because he's not -- because he's not signing the agreement.</s>KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is as you said, on the ground in Doha right now. It's symbolic that he's there because he has been the top diplomat overseeing this process. Now, there is a U.S. negotiator who has been at the table at the working level here. His name is Zal Khalilzad, and he has been working on this effort for more than a year.</s>ATWOOD: Now, it has been a rocky road, however, for the U.S. and the Taliban. You'll recall that last September, the Taliban was supposed to come to Camp David for talks with the U.S. government. Those talks were called-off after the Taliban carried out in an attack in Afghanistan, which killed a U.S. military official. So, there have been some road bumps along the way. Now, it is symbolic that they have finally gotten to the table here. And when President Trump put out that statement yesterday, saying that Secretary Pompeo would be overseeing the signing of this deal. He also noted that this could potentially lead to the end to America's longest war. Now, this is just launching a process, right? They are signing a deal that essentially then brings the Taliban to the table with the Afghan government and with Afghan government officials, folks from society, community leaders. And we are told that, that is expected to start sometime in mid-March. So, this is really the beginning of a process. But it is a very symbolic moment, especially because as you said, President Trump has promised he has pressed that he wants us troops out of Afghanistan. Now, we have reported that part of this agreement essentially sets the timetable for 135 days. In that, a 135 days, the U.S. will pull down their troops from about 13,000 that are there now to about 8,600. And we are also hearing this morning, as Nic said, from officials from the Afghan government saying that there is also a conditioned base timeline for the full withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan within 18 months. What that means is it's not assured that all troops are going to be leaving the country, it will only happen if the Taliban is able to uphold the commitments that they are signing on to today with the U.S. in Doha. And then, as they get to the negotiating table, with the intra-Afghan partners in the coming weeks here.</s>BLACKWELL: Yes, I think it's important for people who are just joining us in the U.S. and around the world to reiterate that this is not a peace treaty, this is not a peace deal that's being signed, this is an agreement that goes in that direction. This is not the end of the U.S. war in Afghanistan. This is a step along that path. Let me bring Nic Robertson back in. What we know is that often with agreements of this type and at this level, require buy-in from other players in the region. What do we know about how this is being received, encouraged, or discouraged, by others in the Middle East?</s>ROBERTSON: You know, I think one of the key indicators there is Pakistan, of course, Pakistan has been the country that has propped up and given sanctuary and support to the Taliban over the decades indeed, sort of helped launch them back in the early 1990s. And I think most significantly, when Pakistan released from jail, Mullah Baradar, who is the Taliban deputy leader, who's doing the signing today, who's been the main interlocutor with envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. That alone there tells you that Pakistan is getting on board with this in part, but Pakistan will have its own expectations of what a new political dispensation within Afghanistan should look like. And there will be a heavy expectation from the Pakistan side, that the -- that the Taliban and it's their -- Taliban's expectation too, is that they will play a significant role in a future Afghan government that could push the current President Ashraf Ghani, could put him out -- push him out of office earlier this year. That's if you will the sort of triumphalist view of the Taliban coming into these talks, and gives you an indication of how bumpy and tough those talks can be with the Afghan government.</s>PAUL: But there about 5,000 Taliban that are be released from Afghan run jails. That's part of the conditions here. I'm wondering if we know, Nic, is the Afghan government really committed to that?</s>ROBERTSON: In essence, they are committed in the sort of underlying sense that, you know, the Taliban are also committed to releasing 1,000 Afghan government prisoners. And there's an understanding that many of those Taliban prisoners may not -- may no longer want to go back and join the fight. I've been speaking to a number of diplomats here on the margins today who are involved in the talks along the way. Their view is that to release 5,000 prisoners in a very short space of time, the Taliban I'm told have a long list of all those names. That would be very difficult and very complicated to do at a technical level.</s>ROBERTSON: I've also been talking to somebody who's directly involved with the Taliban and the United States on the issue of those prisoners. And that's the very clear expectation from the Taliban, that before they go into the intra-Afghan talks with the Afghan government, their confidence building from the Afghan government side has to be the release of those 5,000. Perhaps, what we're going to see negotiated over time, and I'm talking to, you know, people close to the process here are saying perhaps, the real intra-Afghan talks will be delayed by about a month, they might not start to April.</s>BLACKWELL: Yes. All right.</s>ROBERTSON: And that will be the time to allow a sequenced release and confidence building for those 5,000 prisoners.</s>PAUL: All right.</s>BLACKWELL: Nic Robertson for us there. As this will be signed in Doha, we'll continue to follow this and will -- can have more after the break.