CIA Says ISIS Much Larger Than Thought
CUOMO: Welcome back to NEW DAY. Listen to this headline -- the CIA now says the number of ISIS fighters has doubled, maybe even tripled from previous estimates. More than 31,000 and 2,000 from the west of that number, which is especially troubling. This comes as the U.S. is already tracking ISIS targets in Syria with regular surveillance flights. Also on the agenda, arming Syrian rebels. Now, we've been down this road before in this region, specifically. So, how can we be sure we know who the friends are, who the foes are, and what happens with where we go? And are we going to find when we get there? A lot of questions, we have a man who can answer them for us. Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona joining us. Obviously, a friend to the show. Good to have you here. First question, this ISIS when they were a jayvee team, they were like nine guys, now we want to justify this huge war effort, the U.S. wants to justify it is that playing into why the number is getting so big? Is this really a -- LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA</s>CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, there's several reasons. We've always thought there were more numbers than the official estimates. But we're seeing a great recruiting effort as well. That would explain a lot of the difference to go from 10,000 to 30,000 is a big leap. So, it could be that the government is trying to justify what they're doing or maybe they're finally getting an accurate count of who's actually there.</s>CUOMO: One-second buff of information for people as we try to get our heads around this. Even if they have 30,000, let's say they have 50,000, the Peshmerga alone are 150,000, which raises the question, why do they need U.S. help to fight this fight when they have such numerical superiority. It leads to the suggestion that these guys aren't fighting against ISIS when they have the opportunity.</s>FRANCONA: Well, the Kurds are responsible for a much larger area. They're not just fighting ISIS. They're keeping the whole area. So, they have a much larger span that they have to worry about. They can put so many fighters on the frontline in any given time. So, you're talking about, you know, where is the effort going to be?</s>CUOMO: All right. So, let's take a look at the map. That's why we're starting on this large part of the world here -- Syria. Now, we're trying to highlight different parts of the country. One country, it's like four different parts, like a quadrangle of pain in there right now. Who are the players? What do we have to figure out about who to arm, who to fight?</s>FRANCONA: OK. The big players in the group, you have the regime of one side, but on the opposition side, you've got the Free Syrian Army. These are the moderates that the United States wants to back. They're the secular people. They're mostly made up of defectors from the Syrian army. This is a huge organization, maybe about 50,000, maybe more. They're the ones that we believe are the future for Syria, then you've got these three Islamic groups, you've got ISIS, which we've talked about. And we know the numbers are about 30,000 total. Then, you got two other groups in there, you got the victory front which is nothing more than al Qaeda in Syria. Let's call it that, al Qaeda in Syria.</s>CUOMO: But not al Qaeda, al Qaeda came from Syria, but they split.</s>FRANCONA: So, now, you've got a separate organization. Then, you got this other large group of about 50,000, called the Islamic Front. That's made of seven smaller Islamic Salafists organizations supported by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. That's where their money comes from. They're Islamist, but they're not far radical. So, FSA, Free Syrian Army, can work with the Islamic front. Then you've got Nusra and ISIS. I know it's very confusing.</s>CUOMO: No, I want it to be confusing. I want it to be confusing. I know that's not one of the main rules of television, but here's why. When we're showing you Syria, there was a yellow and brown. The brown is where ISIS is. See, that's too simple. That's why I ignored it. I want it to be complicated, when we go to the next big point of news this morning, which we have these 10 countries, Arab states and Turkey, not Arab, as Rick tells me all the time, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the United, the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, it sounds impressive, but it isn't, because of what you just said. The loyalties go all over the place in this situation. And you don't really know who will do what and why, isn't that true?</s>FRANCONA: That's a big problem and I know the secretary of state is traveling and talking to all of these different countries, he's trying to extract from them a promise to do something and all of them have done just that. They promised to do something. But it's always different. We'll provide support, we'll provide money. We'll provide training. But what we haven't heard is that we're going to provide troops.</s>CUOMO: Right. Remember, this is a part of the world that likes to fight. They have thousands of years, not that we're pacifists here in the west but they have thousands of years of fighting for commercial reasons, let alone blood and religion. Now, one example -- Saudi Arabia. They're going to be on our side, because ISIS wants to replace them as the main ruler in that region. But there's a big cultural split there. The Wahhabism, their form of Islam there is very extreme and like what ISIS likes.</s>FRANCONA: But different. And ISIS wants to remove the Wahhabism and replace it with their own brand of radical Islam. They've already told the Saudis the family will be out.</s>CUOMO: Right.</s>FRANCONA: And that when they take over the two holy places they're going to destroy the holiest site in Islam. They're going to destroy the Kaaba. This is anathema to most Muslims, so you have this really radical group, even more radical than the Wahhabis.</s>CUOMO: One last thing as we leave it for here, because this is going to be an ongoing discussion. I just want to set the table for you at home that this isn't as simple as it sounds, like, oh we've got friends on our side, we're going to go fight. It's very complicated there. Israel has not been in the conversation. They're such great fighters there, so much technology and strategy, why aren't they involved in the mix?</s>FRANCONA: The Israelis have a great opportunity here to just sit back and watch everything else unfold, because as long as these guys are tied up with each other, they're too busy to be threatening Israel.</s>CUOMO: But what about Israel helping the fight for the greater cause?</s>FRANCONA: They're watching right now. They're not going to jump into this.</s>CUOMO: Interesting.</s>FRANCONA: There's no reason to.</s>CUOMO: Interesting. Interesting part of the dynamics with the U.S. Rick, thank you very much.</s>FRANCONA: Same, Chris.</s>CUOMO: And again, you need to think it's complicated, because it is. And you don't want to get duped by over-simplification when blood and treasure is going to be spent. Now we are following a lot of breaking news this morning.</s>CUOMO (voice-over): One of the headlines, Oscar Pistorius, he is guilty of culpable homicide. We're going to tell what you that could mean, how much time he could serve. It could be like nothing, it could be a big chunk of his life. We have power house legal team here to break it down for you.