Battle for Control of the House Heats Up
WOODRUFF: Even as Republicans dream of taking the White House, they are waging a battle to retain control of another house, this one on Capitol Hill. Our Bob Franken sizes up the parties and the fight in election 2000.</s>FRANKEN (voice-over): There are few expressions that send chills through Republicans everywhere more than the words Speaker Gephardt. Gephardt and his fellow Democrats are given a fighting chance of taking back the House of Representatives, wrenched from their control in 1994 by Newt Gingrich and his band of GOP revolutionaries.</s>REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT (D-MO), MINORITY LEADER: We lost 52 seats net in 1994, we won nine seats back in '96, five seats back in '98. We need six seats now to win a majority back. It is possible, very possible, to do that.</s>FRANKEN: But those Democratic gains came when Gingrich was the speaker, antagonizing many voters with his confrontational style.</s>GEPHARDT: Gentleman from Illinois, Dennis Hastert.</s>FRANKEN: Newt Gingrich is gone now, and Speaker Dennis Hastert avoids confrontation like the plague.</s>REP. DENNIS HASTERT (R-IL), HOUSE SPEAKER: It seemed like we were always looking for the Hail Mary pass, the big win to get us through. My philosophy is a little bit different.</s>CHARLES COOK, "NATIONAL JOURNAL": There's no dominant issue. Both parties are sort of hugging the center ground. Neither party is behaving in a suicidal fashion.</s>FRANKEN: It all comes down to the numbers: six, that's the Republican advantage, the narrowest margin in the House since 1958. There are about 50 seriously contested races, about 20 of them considered absolute toss-ups. Among those, half are incumbents struggling for political survival. Possibly the hottest race is the fight for Republican Jim Rogan's seat in Southern California. Rogan and his Democratic opponent, Adam Schiff, both have amassed millions. Rogan was already considered vulnerable, but now this is a grudge match.</s>REP. JAMES ROGAN (R), CALIFORNIA: The concept that holding a president who has committed perjury in a criminal grand jury proceeding...</s>FRANKEN: Rogan was one of the leaders in the congressional Republican effort to remove President Clinton from office, and Democrats would love nothing better than making him pay the price. The GOP would take special delight in defeating Michael Forbes of New York, who was elected as a Republican but switched parties last year. And there are 30 open seats where the incumbent is stepping down, 23 Republican and seven Democrat. Ten of those are in the toss-up column. In Michigan, the House seat left behind by Democrat Senate candidate Debbie Stabenow is up for grabs. It's a swing district, and both candidates vying for the seat are popular state senators. On top of all else is the effect the presidential race could have on these contests. Al Gore has met with House Democrats to coordinate their message, while George W. Bush and his aides stay in contact with House Republicans. Still, GOP House members steered clear of promoting Bush's huge tax cut proposal, having gained no political advantage in passing a much smaller tax cut last year. But neither party is counting on coattails to make much difference.</s>REP. TOM DAVIS (R-VA), NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE: Last time, our presidential candidate lost the presidency by eight points and we still held the House.</s>FRANKEN: Ironically, about 40 House GOP candidates are clamoring for help from a man who lost his party's nomination. John McCain has fielded dozens of requests from House Republicans to campaign with them. He's met with the leadership of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee to decide which candidates would benefit most from a McCain visit. Democrats discount McCain's clout.</s>REP. PATRICK KENNEDY (D-CT), CHMN., DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE: I think it's a great thing that John McCain's out there highlighting an issue that really contrasts Republicans from Democrats. McCain is an orphan in his own party.</s>FRANKEN: With the battle for control of the House too close to call, experts are withholding predictions.</s>COOK: It's almost random the outcome. I mean, it's just, you know, who runs the best ad in the last three weeks before the election? Who makes a mistake?</s>FRANKEN (on camera): The GOP has controlled the House for five years. The Democrats held it for 40 years before that. As tight as this race is, it's fair to say that for the remainder of this session nearly every move, every action, will be about who's in charge next session. Bob Franken, CNN, Capitol Hill.</s>WOODRUFF: A few days ago, I sat down with Stu Rothenberg of "The Rothenberg Political Report" and Charlie Cook of "The National Journal" and asked about the Democrats' chances of taking control of the House.</s>STUART ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": I'd say they're darn close to 50-50. My last count had the Democrats picking up from two to five seats. They need six seats. The difference between five and six at this point, Judy, is frankly irrelevant. It's 50-50.</s>COOK: Yes, I agree with Stu. I think it's just maybe a hair under 50-50, but it's just teetering on the edge. And...</s>WOODRUFF: Under 50?</s>COOK: Yes, but right at -- right under a little bit. It's going back and forth. I mean, Republicans have had a couple good breaks last couple months. Before that, Democrats were on top maybe by a little bit. But it's teetering -- it's going to go either way. This is very close.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, let's talk about some of the important contests that both of you, I think, would agree are going to shape the results. All right, California 27, now this is the seat -- Bob Franken just referred to it -- this the seat held now by Jim Rogan, fighting hard to hold on -- Stu.</s>ROTHENBERG: I see him as one of two incumbents who are possibly behind at the moment who are maybe underdogs. It's hard to say an incumbent is an underdog, but in this case he was actually beaten in the open primary by Adam Schiff, his Democratic opponent. The district's turning against him, his opponent is very well-funded. It could be a very competitive race, but I think this is probably the single most vulnerable Republican incumbent.</s>WOODRUFF: Charlie?</s>COOK: I don't disagree at all. I think they've met two times before, though, and Rogan won each time -- in a special election in a state legislative election and then in a regular general election. Stu's right. The district is trending Democrat, but, you know, I would never count Jim Rogan or for that matter any unindicted House incumbent out. They have a way of surviving. There's something to this incumbency thing so that -- you know, while a lot of people are counting Rogan out, I wouldn't do it at all. I think it's going to be extremely close.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, another California seat, 15. Now this is an open seat currently held by Republican Tom Campbell who's running for the Senate -- Stu.</s>ROTHENBERG: Yes, this is a terrific race because it's a race that contrasts the personalities and styles. The Democrat is Mike Honda, the Republican Jim Cunneen. Cunneen: younger, more aggressive, a very moderate to liberal Republican. Honda: closer to organized labor, older, a very decent man. But does he have the fight, does he have the energy, does he have the toughness to combat the younger guy? I think it will be a terrific race. It's a Democratic-leaning district.</s>COOK: One way to look at this is it's a district that a Democrat ought to win but that Republicans came up with the best candidate they could possibly come up with, while Democrats came up with maybe their third or fourth best candidate. And so that sort of evens the odds out. This is going to be a real close race.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, let's move all the way across the country, New Jersey 12th District, held by a Democrat, Rush Holt, his first term -- Stu.</s>ROTHENBERG: Well, this is a prime Republican target, but the problem for the Republicans is that they have a nasty primary. Two former congressmen, Dick Zimmer and Mike Pappas, very ideological. Republicans are taking -- are splitting along ideological lines, abortion and the like. I think if the Republicans can somehow avoid a civil war, they can win this seat. It's a very good seat for the Republicans. Personally, I believe Dick Zimmer can win the seat. I have great doubts about Pappas.</s>COOK: You know, Zimmer represented this district for 10 years or so before he ran for the Senate and lost to Bob Torricelli. I think he's much more of a known quantity. I think voters in a general election would be much more comfortable with him than with Mike Pappas. There's been a real split among Republicans down here, with conservatives going with Pappas and the more moderates, pragmatists, more going with Zimmer because they think he has a better chance of winning. But the organization Republicans back in the district are lining up more with Zimmer. I agree, I think he would be a more formidable general election candidate and would be a real problem. But Pappas, I think -- I think Pappas would be an underdog to Rush Holt.</s>ROTHENBERG: I would think so, too. And Zimmer has a financial advantage as well. But you know, Judy, in these primaries, sometimes ideology can trump money.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, neighboring state New York, 1st District held by Michael Forbes who switched parties. He was elected as the Republican, now he's a Democrat.</s>ROTHENBERG: Well this is the other Republican I think is in big trouble. I know the Democrats are pushing heavily on this one, saying that John McCain won the primary out there in Suffolk County, that Felix Grucci, the Republican nominee is vulnerable, the Republicans in Suffolk County have ethics problems. All that is true. Yes, Forbes is an incumbent, but Democrats are divided here. Pro-lifers, which have been an important part of his constituency, are now turned off. I think he has an awful tough race.</s>COOK: This is basically eastern Long Island, Brookhaven, and Felix Grucci, the Republican, is a Brookhaven town supervisor. He's from the family -- one of the top pyrotechnics, the fireworks, you know, the Mall and all like that, their family produces those things. He's a very, very, very good candidate, and Forbes has alienated a lot of folks. This is, you know, if you had to say who was the single most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, I think I'd put Forbes over even Rush Holt.</s>ROTHENBERG: No doubt about it.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, Pennsylvania, 4th, this is an open seat currently held by Ron Klink, a Democrat. He's running for the Senate.</s>COOK: Yes, this is a problem area for Democrats. First, Ron Klink had this seat. This is a labor-oriented Pittsburgh-area district. It's a seat that Democrats shouldn't have to worry about, but Ron Klink decided to run for the Senate. Democrats looked around, they couldn't -- they had a hard time coming up with a candidate. They though they found a good one, a local prosecutor named Matt Mangiono. The Democratic Party went in and backed him in the primary, and he lost to a state representative, Terry Van Horne -- Terry Horne.</s>ROTHENBERG: Van Horne.</s>COOK: Van Horne, yes, I'm sorry, Van Horne. They -- and everybody's been wondering in the primary, why did Democrats get into this primary? And then it turns out that Van Horne had had some problems, that he had gone on the House floor, the state legislature in Pennsylvania, and made some fairly racist remarks. And it's created real problem. And while there's not a real significant African-American population in the district, it's going to make it very hard for Democrats to do all they can for him. And it was already a bad situation for Democrats. It's just gotten worse.</s>ROTHENBERG: Charlie is absolutely right. This is a tough one for the Democrats. It shouldn't be. The fact that it's in play gives Republicans an opportunity, not only to hold the seat, but again, they're worrying about holding the House; one or two seats might make a difference.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, fascinating. Thank you both, Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, appreciate it. And when we return, a massive project gets even bigger, big enough to earn someone a political "Play of the Week."