Ron Paul's Impact On The Race; Why The Iowa Caucuses Matter
WHITFIELD: All right. Here's a rundown of some of the stories we're working on right now. Next, the resurgence of Ron Paul and why it's becoming an interesting factor on Capitol Hill. Then, Iowa, why so much is riding on next week's caucus. And later, Wall Street wraps up another year, what this last trading day means for 2012. All right. He's running high in the polls in Iowa, but few of his rivals expect Ron Paul to be the Republican presidential nominee.</s>GINGRICH: I mean, I think it's very difficult to see how you would engage in dealing with Ron Paul as a nominee.</s>RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'd have to take a lot of antacids when I go in the voting booth and vote for him.</s>WHITFIELD: All right. Dana Bash joining us now from Washington to talk about the Ron Paul factor. So Dana, why is a possible victory for Ron Paul potentially problematic and for whom?</s>DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, Fredricka, some Iowa voters are really focused on picking the most Republican likely to beat Barack Obama. Our poll numbers show that those voters are settling on Mitt Romney in Iowa. But the same dynamic we saw with the GOP takeover of the House is propelling Ron Paul in Iowa. They mostly want to send a message to Washington.</s>WHITFIELD: What would be that message?</s>BASH: You know, the message, Fredricka, is that the government is too big, that the deficit and debt are too large, that we need to rein in the government and slash spending. To be fair, Ron Paul has been talking about this for years and years. Way before it was cool. You know, several Republican leaders in Iowa that have been talking to about this over the past few days tell me what's going on there is that the electorate in many ways is catching up with Ron Paul. Where Paul runs into problems and is real reason virtually that no one thinks he can ultimately become the Republican nominee is because he takes his libertarian views to an extreme and he is an unbending isolationist when it comes to foreign policy -- Fred.</s>WHITFIELD: OK, so let's talk a little bit more, zero in on some of that foreign policy or his views on that. Recently, he had some pretty sharp views about Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. This is what he said.</s>RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If tomorrow under these conditions if they closed the Straits of Hormuz, I would not see that as an act of war against us. It would be an act of war against those countries there.</s>WHITFIELD: So why is it that some members in the party kind of bristle when they hear Ron Paul's explanation like this?</s>BASH: You know, Ron is a great example. It is a huge issue for many of the so-called neoconservatives in the GOP. So hearing Ron Paul say what he just said or that sanctions are an act of war, or he doesn't believe that Iran has a nuclear weapon, or that he doesn't think Iran is a threat to Israel. It makes Republicans, many of them, go berserk, Fred. It is not just that. It is also how libertarian his views are and how that affects things like his position on terrorism. Let me give you an example. The publisher of the conservative "Union Leader" newspaper in New Hampshire wrote about this and the fact that Paul doesn't want to read Miranda Rights to terror suspects. Let me just read you a quote. This publisher said, "This is nothing short of nuts. What is needed to competently fight a war and al Qaeda is indeed a war with us is the ability to gather information. Telling the enemy that it has a right to remain silent is absurd." This editorial was really scathing. It called Ron Paul truly dangerous. That's the kind of thing that he is up against. One of the reasons why despite the fact that he has incredible support and may actually win in Iowa. May do pretty well in the libertarian live free or die state of New Hampshire, ultimately maybe his rivals are right, that he probably will not succeed in getting the nomination.</s>WHITFIELD: All right, we shall see how galvanizing potentially a win in Iowa might be for Ron Paul. Dana Bash, thanks so much.</s>BASH: Thanks, Fred.</s>WHITFIELD: All right, so we're going to talk some more about Iowa and you know, why Iowa. Why is it so potentially important? Why is this state at the center of presidential politics the way it is right now? And what is a caucus anyway? Joining us to talk about that, Carol Hunter, she's a politics editor for "The Des Moines Register." So first of all, good to see you.</s>CAROL HUNTER, POLITICS EDITOR, DES MOINES REGISTER: Hello, good to see you, Fredricka.</s>WHITFIELD: All right, so, Carol, how is it Iowa became so important or pivotal just because it's the first caucus state?</s>HUNTER: Well, it really does come down to being first. We like to say we cover a lot more than the horse race and we do. We cover issues and policy. But everyone likes to count and everyone likes to win, so all the journalists and everyone in the political world gets hyped up about the first votes that count. So the votes cast Tuesday will be among the most important because they will sort of set the race in a very important framework.</s>WHITFIELD: So now break it down for us and explain, how does this caucus work? Who gets to be a caucus goer and why do they get to cast their ballot?</s>HUNTER: Well, just about anyone can become a caucus goer. All it takes to be a registered member of that party and to show up on caucus night. In fact, there is same-day registration. So if you are not even registered to vote in Iowa, as long as you are a resident here, can show a photo ID and proof of address, then you can register for that party and vote in the caucus.</s>WHITFIELD: OK, so now those who show up, is that kind of a microcosm of the electorate for all of Iowa or does it tend to be a certain segment of the population?</s>HUNTER: It does tend to be party activists. It takes more to vote in a caucus than it does in a primary. In a primary you can go all throughout the day and it only takes a few minutes. A caucus you have to be there at a specific time, 7:00 p.m. for the Republicans, and it usually takes at least an hour or so. Representatives speak to you about their candidate and there is a discussion among the attendees. And there is an election of people who will participate in the county and district conventions as well, and even some discussion of platform resolutions if someone wants to bring one forward.</s>WHITFIELD: OK, so is Iowa particularly proud that who caucus goers select on that caucus day pick a winner? What's the track record?</s>HUNTER: Well, the track record is somewhat mixed on the Republican side, there have been six competitive caucuses since the modern era in the 1970s and three out of the six times, Iowans have picked a winner. A little bit better on the Democratic side, six of the nine times. But most political experts say Iowa's job isn't necessarily to pick a winner, Iowa's job is to whittle the field. Iowans get to see these candidates up close over many months. They take a great deal of pride in vetting candidates, in asking tough questions, and so there's this saying about three tickets out of Iowa and usually it is the top three or so that go on to make a real race of it in later primaries.</s>WHITFIELD: Interesting. All right, so kind of 50-50 on that and maybe half of the contenders that are going to be on that ballot for the caucus Tuesday night you think after this caucus would be whittled down to maybe three.</s>HUNTER: That's been the historical track record. It has held true all except last time around on the GOP side. John McCain actually came in fourth. He was just nudged by Fred Thompson. But that was a special case. McCain was very well known of course and he had campaigned a lot early in Iowa. But he ran into financial problems so he had to pull back, didn't campaign as much here through the late summer and fall. But he did come in just edged by fourth and then headed into New Hampshire and obviously went on to win the nomination.</s>WHITFIELD: Wow, all right, Carol Hunter, very fascinating stuff of the "Des Moines Register". Thanks so much. Happy New Year and have fun, come Tuesday. It is going to be a big day. A reminder, big day for us, big day for you at home. Tune in next week for the country's first vote in this presidential race. America's Choice 2012 live coverage of the Iowa caucuses beginning Tuesday night, January 3rd, 7:00 Eastern Time. This weekend it is your chance to see the Republican candidates for president offer their closing arguments uninterrupted in their own words. Watch "The Contenders 2012" on CNN this Saturday and Sunday afternoon beginning at 2:00 Eastern Time. All right, Wall Street traders are likely breathing a sigh of relief. The last closing bell of 2011 just a few hours away. The Dow is down about 31 points. Not so bad. You'll see how the markets wrap up this volatile year.