Texas Showdown with Cruz and O'Rourke
HARRY ENTEN: And I'm just not sure that type of strategy necessarily works in a midterm election because, historically speaking, voters have not voted about how they feel about the opposition party, they vote upon how they feel about the president's party. And so that, I think, is why we're seeing in polls across the country that Democrats are still ahead of Republicans.</s>JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: OK, let's look at some of these key races because this is a graph showing congressional districts that currently have a Republican representative but have at least 50 percent Hispanic citizen voting age population, which you might imagine, in light of the president's rhetoric, that's a good space for Democrats.</s>POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.</s>SCIUTTO: And this is a -- help -- let's hold this up for here for a bit because it's a busy graphic. Tell us what we're seeing here.</s>ENTEN: So essentially, as you pointed out, these are -- Republicans hold these districts. There are a lot of Latinos in these districts. Hillary Clinton tended to do pretty well in these districts. She won all but one of them. And the one she lost, she only lost by a little bit. But what we're seeing here is that Republican representatives, or the Republican candidates in these districts are vastly outperforming how Donald Trump did just two years ago on average. They're outperforming by 14 percentage points how Donald Trump did just two years ago. So if Democrats were hopeful that Latinos could drive them to victory in the midterm elections, my forecast, which is what you see on the left, indicates otherwise.</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>SCIUTTO: So why is this happening? I mean is that because lack of enthusiasm among Hispanic voters or is it that some of them support the president's agenda?</s>ENTEN: I think it's two things. Number one, we know from the polling that Latinos are less likely to turn out in this midterm election than they were two years ago. That fits a historic trend. But the other thing I'll point out is that the Republican incumbents in these districts, who are running for re-election, tend to be very, very modern. Even the most conservative of them, Will Hurd in Texas, his 23rd district, is still a pretty moderate representative. So they're able to distance themselves from the president.</s>SCIUTTO: Yes, and Poppy's going to speak to one of them coming up.</s>HARLOW: We will, yes, next, Carlos Curbelo. Texas, big debate tonight, Beto O'Rourke, Ted Cruz, 60 minute debate. Trailing in the polls, Beto, a Democrat, is trailing in the polls there, but raised $38 million.</s>ENTEN: That's a lot of money.</s>HARLOW: Last quarter. It's not only a lot of money, it's the most ever raised by a U.S. Senate campaign. How do you see this? Because if he has a good night tonight, could that put Cruz in real danger? Or is this Democrats pouring a ton of money into a state that they're just not going to win, but also forcing Republicans to pour a ton of money into a state to defend Cruz that they shouldn't have to.</s>ENTEN: I think it's a few things. Number one, historically speaking, money raised is actually a pretty good indicator of how a candidate's going to do. So perhaps O'Rourke will outperform his polls. He's still an underdog. In my forecast he's down by 4 percentage points, for example. But I'll point out one other thing that I think is very important is, if O'Rourke does well, or better than a Democrat -- the average Democrat in Texas --</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>ENTEN: Could lift them in some swing congressional districts, like the 7th, the 32nd district in the Houston/Dallas suburbs and it could get Democrats to</s>HARLOW: Can I just tell you, they -- I was at the park with my daughter -- this story actually ties to this -- in Brooklyn and they -- there was a fundraiser about to happen for Beto O'Rourke in Brooklyn. It just shows you all this money coming from --</s>SCIUTTO: How many Texas voters in Brooklyn I guess is the question?</s>HARLOW: I'm just saying.</s>ENTEN: Some might argue is barbecue is better in Brooklyn than in Texas, but I disagree entire with that.</s>HARLOW: I just thought it was fascinating to see sort of the national attention on this race there.</s>SCIUTTO: It is.</s>ENTEN: Or as my mother calls him Veto (ph). How's Veto (ph) doing?</s>SCIUTTO: Yes.</s>HARLOW: All right. All right, there you go. And for everyone, you should check out Harry's forecast. He has done a ton of work on this. It's fascinating to dig into the numbers, "The Forecast with Harry Enten" online at cnn.com. Every day an update there as we head to the midterms. All right, so Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo is in the political fight of his life. His district, one of the most at risk of rising sea levels because of climate change, he is betting voters will pick him, a Republican, to fix it.