Nevada Caucus is 3 Days Away
MALVEAUX: Mitt Romney has momentum, and Gingrich defiant. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are still hanging on. The Nevada caucuses are three days away. And joining us to talk about the Republican race going forward is Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. So, we are moving from the Florida primary to the Nevada caucuses, and very different situation. Caucuses you need organization and passion from the folks, because they come out to listen to the speeches at a public hearing and then they cast their vote. I don't suppose that a lot of money for commercials makes that much difference in Nevada. What does that actually benefit? Do we know?</s>LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, in Nevada, it has to be Romney simply because he has the base there. He won 51 percent of the Nevada vote at a time he was losing elsewhere in 2008. So he's a very heavy favorite in Nevada. There is also a very large Mormon population that will vote in the Republican caucuses. Now, other states, it is different. You know, there's a poll out from PPP showing that Rick Santorum is leading Mitt Romney in the beauty contest, Missouri primary, which is next Tuesday. There are caucus states where I'm told Ron Paul is making a fair bid to win or to play very close to winning in Maine, Minnesota, possibly the Washington State caucuses right before Super Tuesday. So, look, to say that Mitt Romney is the clear favorite to be the Republican nominee is obvious, but I think that it is also important to note that it is not over, and that the other candidates will almost certainly win at least some contests between now and June.</s>MALVEAUX: And I should say Nevada. I have been told that is how folks say it there. And we have a new study out, and it says this is the most negative campaign in history. We have a group, the Campaign Media Analysis Group, that says that 92 percent of the ads in Florida were negative. Romney and Gingrich have both talked about it. This is how they responded to it.</s>UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Did you let your guard down to Mitt Romney, would you say?</s>NEWT GINGRICH, (R), FORMER HOUSE SPEAKER & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I would say when you are outspent with ads five to one that are dishonest.</s>MITT ROMNEY, (R), FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: he really can't whine about negative campaigning when he launched a very negative campaign in South Carolina, and when the people here in Florida looked at the different campaigns and considered his were the most negative.</s>MALVEAUX: Larry, there's no doubt, no question this is a negative campaign. What kind of impact will it have on the general election?</s>SABATO: Well, it doesn't help the nominee simply because it creates divisions within the party that are then tougher to heal. Sometimes they heal, as they did in the Obama/Hillary Clinton contest in 2008. Sometimes they don't heal, as in the Carter/Kennedy contest back in 1980. And look, it was an extremely negative campaign, but number one, it worked and number two, Suzanne, maybe it is my age, but I have seen so many highly negative campaigns. I would put the LBJ/Goldwater race in 1964 and the Bush/Dukakis race of 1988 right up with this one or right down with this one, I guess you could say. We have had a lot of extremely negative race, and somebody still wins.</s>MALVEAUX: Well, it is not the age there, because I remember the slugfest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was a drag out, and knock out kind of fight, that went on for a long time. And do we think that Rick Santorum and Ron Paul will stick this out for a little bit longer?</s>SABATO: Well, it is an easy bet for Ron Paul. Yes. He will stick it out all of the way through, and will be at the convention, and in some role, I would think, given the number of delicates that he will have. Rick Santorum, I'm less sure about simply because he is -- he is young. He has a future, and he can run again. Gingrich is not running again, and Ron Paul is not running again, and Romney is not running again. So there is a different dynamic with Rick Santorum, and it may encourage him at some point to make the peace with the eventual nominee and the party establishment.</s>MALVEAUX: All right. Larry, good to see you. Thank you as always. All right. Super Bowl coming up, and are you thinking of buying a TV? Don't do it until you check out the "Top Tips," up next.