Tight Race For Tomorrow's Democratic Caucus in Nevada
COOPER: Less than 11 hours to go until polls open in South Carolina. Big day for Republicans there. Big day tomorrow as well for Democrats in Nevada where they are holding caucuses. Each contest for each party vastly different than the ones in New Hampshire and Iowa, obviously. And unlike those two states who have seen less polling in the run-up to South Carolina and nearly none until recently in Nevada. So the question is, what's can viewers look for tomorrow in both states which is why it makes sense to ask chief national correspondent John King what he's looking for by the numbers. John, I mean, we discussed in the past how Latinos, African-Americans are critical in Nevada. What else are you going to be looking for?</s>KING: Let's go out and look at the map, Anderson, as we raised those questions. As you know, African-Americans and Latinos, the first diverse democratic electorate. Here is the couple of other things to look at. I want to go back to the 2008 math as we do. Hillary Clinton won the state over then senator Obama. But senator Obama got more delegates. We want to score this two ways tomorrow, who wins the popular vote, but who gets the most delegates because we expect this race to go on for a while. A couple of things to look, number one, the hugging Obama strategy. There has been Hillary Clinton, does it work in a state that by most economic indicators is way below the national average. Remember Nevada was so punished in the recession. Its unemployment rate is still 6.4 percent. Way above the national average, housing statistics, median income statistics. This is a place the economy is still hurting. Can Bernie Sanders take advantage of that? One more question for you, where does the union vote go? The most powerful union in the state, the culinary workers are not endorsing this time. They endorsed Obama last time. There has been a lot of split between national unions and local unions and the Clinton family's race. It was 29 percent of the vote last time. Pretty evenly split between Clinton and Obama. Does labor break one way or the other? That would impact the outcome tomorrow, Anderson.</s>COOPER: Also, let's talk about South Carolina for the Republicans? What are the key clues to look for?</s>KING: Let's move it over to the Republican race and let's stay in 2008 and bring out the race here. On to your guests, our other guests, Hogan and Katon remember this very well. What am I looking for tomorrow? You see the gold here? This is Mike Huckabee in 2008. This should be Ted Cruz territory tomorrow night. If Donald Trump is winning up in Greenville, you just know that Ted Cruz's final rally tonight up in Greenville. This is the evangelical belt of South Carolina. If Donald Trump is winning up here, Ted Cruz is in trouble. Then the other key thing, if you look -- clear the map a little bit and look at this part here, you see the red from Columbia then you come down along the coast and you come this way. The retirees, the military base, transplants down here. Main stream establishment vote. Is Trump winning over here as well as he did in New Hampshire when he won just about everywhere or do you start to see Marco Rubio, do you see Governor Kasich, do you see Jeb Bush? This is where the mainstream establishment vote will be fought out in what is now a slugfest. One last point, you see Fred Thompson in 2008. Watch Dr. Carson tomorrow night. If Ben Carson has a decent showing, we don't expect him to be in the top three or the top four, but if Carson has a big decent showing it could affect Ted Cruz just like Fred Thompson probably stole the race from Mike Huckabee back in 2008.</s>COOPER: John, stay with us. I want to bring the panel back. Katon, you heard what John just laid out. Who do you think holds the key to the election tomorrow in South Carolina? Evangelical voters, military voters? Or establishment types? Who has the potential to swing this?</s>DAWSON: I think we've got 100,000 new voters coming. John is right. I want you to watch the upstate of South Carolina. That's where the heavy vote is. That's where we win all of our elections in South Carolina. And Anderson, those votes are going to come in late. Greenville is one of the latest counties coming in. Going to be a later night than some think as these votes come in, these pockets of votes come in. But the upstate to South Carolina is going to be important. Greenville county,</s>COOPER: You really believe Rubio will come in second?</s>DAWSON: I think he can, yes, sir. I mean, momentum matters. And the last 24 hours with the undecided votes, much like nobody saw Newt Gingrich coming. They just didn't see it. He was in a distant third place, and the news the last couple of days, we had the Pope, we had some distractions, I think Donald Trump helped himself the last 48 hours and I think Marco Rubio did. And I think Ted Cruz did fine, but I saw the momentum move toward those two today.</s>COOPER: Interesting. Hogan, I mean, we hear a lot, obviously, in every state about the importance of ground game. South Carolina is in a caucus state. People need to show up and cast their vote as Katon did today and they are done. And there is the early voting. Much different from a state like Iowa or Nevada where you have to actually get your supporters to show up, and you know, in a complex caucus process. What do you think that means for tomorrow?</s>GIDLEY: Well, you're right. I mean, I have been to all 99 counties now in Iowa twice. Once with Rick Santorum and once with Mike Huckabee. It is very complicated. But I will tell you this. People stood outside of Donald Trump events for two-and-a-half hours in negative 22 degree weather and they didn't even know if they were going to get in. And they waited that long to get it. They got in, and they came out -- even though he finished second, 45,000 people voted for him, plus in Iowa. I think the same thing happens here. You need turnout apparatus in South Carolina. There is no question. It's very important to get your folks out to the polls. But look, when you show up to a place like Walterboro yesterday or day before yesterday for Donald Trump and Newt Gingrich who won this state had 450 people there, when he won, and Donald Trump had over 5,000, that tells you your turnout apparatus is excitement for the candidate. And people are excited about Donald Trump for whatever reason. Good, bad, indifferent. They are excited about a man who stands up to Hillary Clinton, who tells it like it is, and is politically incorrect. And people like that. And so I think Katon is right. Marco Rubio is making some moves in this state. Cruz is taking some incoming. Both Marco and now Jeb and also Donald Trump calling him a liar, showing how he's lied in the past in Iowa. Showing how he's lied to evangelicals. That's a problem for Ted Cruz here in this state. And it's causing some of those evangelicals to kind of slough off him toward the end and look somewhere else. And I think that does directly help Marco Rubio and some of those evangelicals are actually going to Donald Trump. And that I think might propel him to victory tomorrow.</s>COOPER: John, I mean, is tomorrow in any way a referendum on campaign tactics? You know, we have seen Trump and Cruz and Rubio calling each other liars for one reason or another. We have seen Bush try to knock down Trump. Kasich trying to take the high road. It will be interesting - I mean, do you think that really matters?</s>KING: Well, it has seemed sort of like a fifth grade class election in the last few days. But Katon and Hogan who both been through South Carolina rodeos before would tell that you as rock them sock them South Carolina robot style goes. This is actually been pretty tame. They are name calling, but you don't have the nasty personal robocals we have seen in the past. The nasty, personal direct mail pieces. I'm not saying there aren't some, but you done have them on the scale we have seen in the past.</s>GIDLEY: That's not true.</s>KING: So there's</s>COOPER: Yes. Definitely. Katon Dawson, we got to leave it there. Hogan Gidley as well. Always great to have you on. John King, thank you. Just ahead, you heard all the talk about Republicans courting the evangelical vote in South Carolina. We are going to go there to hear which way some of those voters are leaning right now. Also late word on Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in what has John King said could be a very tight race in Nevada.