Potential for Brokered GOP Convention
BLITZER: You're looking at live pictures from Republican Party headquarters in Portland, Maine. We expect, in about a half hour or so, to get the results from the Maine caucuses. You'll hear it live here as our coverage unfolds. I want to stay in Portland, Maine, over in Ron Paul headquarters. CNN's Mary Snow is standing by. They need a win, the Ron Paul campaign. So far, they haven't had a win, but they potentially could get one tonight. Is that what they are expecting?</s>MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They are expecting to be very close. But supporters here tonight, Wolf, are saying they feel it is very important that there is a win for Ron Paul to gain momentum in what would be his first victory in a presidential contest. Ron Paul has campaigned here more than anyone else. He's been appealing to Libertarians in the state and young voters. Earlier today at a caucus site, he says he believes he has a good chance of winning.</s>REP. RON PAUL, (R), TEXAS & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Seems like the supporters always seem to come through. We can't compete dollar to dollar, of course, with Governor Romney, but our supporters are very generous. So far, they've always come through when we need them.</s>SNOW: I just talked to the campaign a short time ago. They are expecting this to come down to the wire, saying, potentially, it could come down to fewer than 100 votes, possibly even fewer than 20 votes -- Wolf?</s>BLITZER: Mary, stand by. Shortly after the results come in, I'll speak live with Ron Paul here, as well. Stand by for that. The former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, isn't worried about the real possibility this Republican contest could go all the way to the GOP convention in Tampa at the end of August. Listen to what she told Peter Hamby a while ago.</s>PALIN: I don't think that it would be a negative for the party, a brokered convention. People who start screaming that a brokered convention is the worst thing that could happen to the GOP, they have an agenda. They have their own personal or political reasons, their own candidate who they would like to see protected away from a brokered convention. So anybody who starts saying, can't allow that to happen, that's part of competition. That's part of the process, and it may happen.</s>BLITZER: Let's bring in our own John King. John, a lot of folks are saying it may actually happen, even though it hasn't happened in a long, long time, a brokered convention. What are the prospects of that?</s>JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It is unlikely, Wolf, because it hasn't happened in so long. You have to go back to 1940. Is it possible? It is. Let's look at the map. Maine is voting today. Maine is the ninth state to vote in this process. Michigan and Arizona will round out the month of February. By the end of this month, we'll have 11 states. This is about delegates if you're campaigning. Most nomination battles are not about delegates. Somebody gets momentum early on and wraps it up before this number, 1144, comes to play. But Governor Romney stumbles a bit. Maybe Speaker Gingrich recovers. Maybe Rick Santorum keeps his victories. Let's give it up. Let's assume -- I talked to Romney people in Maine. They are confident they'll get a win tonight, a close one. For the sake of argument, let's say Ron Paul gets his first win tonight. It changes the delegate math a little. I'll jump ahead a little bit. We'll go through some states quickly here. First we show where the contest goes from here. Michigan and Arizona close out February. Let's assume Governor Romney wins them. Again, Gingrich, Santorum all competing hard in Michigan. Let's for this scenario do this, then you come in March 3rd, I'll give that to Ron Paul. Then, Super Tuesday, you see a bunch of states that are all over. Some in New England, Ohio, Virginia, Tennessee, some southern states, Oklahoma, more out to the west. Split them up. Santorum wins some, Gingrich wins some, Romney wins some. If you keep flashing through this way, this is what happens. If Santorum can stay viable, Gingrich start winning in the south, I'll bump ahead all the way to the convention. If that played out all the way -- Wolf, again, hasn't happened in our lifetime, unlikely to happen this time -- but given the nature of this race, is it a possibility? Sure. If Santorum is winning in the Midwest, wins his Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Gingrich is strong in the south, Romney wins in the west and New England up here, he's on the ballot in Virginia, Santorum and Gingrich are now, you could get to a scenario something like this. Romney gets to the convention, 800 or so, 900 delegates, short of 1144. Gingrich in the 450, 500 range, Santorum in the 600 to 700 range, it could happen. Then you get to the convention and you'd have interesting negotiations and deliberations, my friend.</s>BLITZER: I've even heard some folks say if that were to happen, someone like Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, he could emerge over the convention in Tampa and win this convention. I guess that's theoretically possible.</s>KING: If you go back to the pre-cable-television, pre-television days, when these things were possible. What would happen, if you got to a convention with these candidates, Governor Romney would try to win? He would try to talks somebody into giving up his delegates, try to negotiate. Maybe he'd try to offer the vice presidency to somebody. If that didn't happen, yes, then you throw it open. You have a couple of ballots and nobody wins, then the rules allow new names to be put into nominations at some point. Then it's anybody's bet. I want to stress unlikely, hasn't happened in our lifetime, but given the volatility of the race and the dissatisfaction with Governor Romney in some circles and the see-saw between Gingrich and Santorum as the alternative to Romney, some people look at the map and say maybe this is the year.</s>BLITZER: You heard Sarah Palin say maybe it is, as well. Thanks, John. Don't go too far away. Within a half hour, we'll get the results of the Maine caucus. We're standing by too for that. You'll see it and hear it live on CNN. After a stunning success in the week's Republican triple-header, Rick Santorum talks about his chances in Maine and the contests that lie ahead. That's coming up. And Michelle Obama makes some candid comments about campaigning and balancing her roles, as wife, mom, and first lady.