Can Hillary Catch Barack?; Campaign Headaches
TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Step right up and see the amazing twist and turns of campaign magic. Watch as Hillary Clinton cheats political oblivion once again, snatching victory from the wild of Pennsylvania, but can she make Barack Obama's lead disappear? Can she bring Florida and Michigan back to life? Or will this whole balancing act finally crash to the ground?</s>FOREMAN: We have got nothing up our sleeves except THIS WEEK IN POLITICS.</s>FOREMAN: And welcome to THIS WEEK IN POLITICS. Old Vaudeville magicians used to talk about the secret to life, but this week, some modern Democratic politicians seemed to find the secret to an endless campaign.</s>FOREMAN (voice-over): Senator Clinton mesmerized last-minute voters, mystically fended off an enormous ad blitz by Obama and pulled a victory in Pennsylvania out of her hat.</s>SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I might stumble and I might get knocked down, but as long as you will stand with me, I will always get right back up.</s>FOREMAN: Clinton pushed economic issues, experience and her down-home roots to keep her base of blue-collar voters, rural whites, and older folks spellbound, magically changing Barack Obama from a populist to an elitist. And, for her next trick, behold, Indiana.</s>H. CLINTON: This campaign for me, here in Indiana, is about jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs.</s>FOREMAN: The Hoosier State is a lot like Pennsylvania and that could bode well for her, but it's also next door to Illinois, Obama's home state. And he's dubbed Indiana a potential tiebreaker. So, he's brewing up a counterspell with new endorsements and lots of ad money.</s>SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The way we're going to close the deal is by winning. And, right now, we're winning. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CLINTON CAMPAIGN AD) NARRATOR: It's the toughest job in the world. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.</s>FOREMAN: He's getting help. To take Pennsylvania, Clinton rolled out ads that brought a chorus of complaint that is she is going too negative, one raised by even "The New York Times," which endorsed her. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, OBAMA CAMPAIGN AD) NARRATOR: Eleventh-hour smears paid for by lobbyist money. Isn't is that exactly what we need to change?</s>FOREMAN: On the other hand, he is walking a tightrope himself with headlines saying he needs to be tough to win, but not so tough that he stops being the candidate of change. Still, she has got some momentum now and keeping it will depend on her next tricks, one, cutting down Obama's lead in the popular vote, the delegate count and the number of states won by hitting Indiana and North Carolina hard when they vote, two, hypnotizing the uncommitted superdelegates to keep them from proclaiming him the winner before the last votes are counted, and, three, keeping up her magic chant.</s>H. CLINTON: To fight, to fight for everyone.</s>FOREMAN: Here to help us fight our way through a very confusing week in a rare Washington appearance, CNN congressional correspondent Jessica Yellin, finally off the campaign trail. You been there so much, you are going to have to pay taxes in Pennsylvania.</s>JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Shh.</s>FOREMAN: And, in New York, Rick Stengel, manager editor of "TIME" magazine. "TIME"'s cover this week seems to say it all. "There Can Only Be One." Jessica, let me turn to you. We have now a few days to mull it over, what happened in Pennsylvania. Clinton says she pulled off an amazing magic trick, a big comeback. Is that true or is that smoke and mirrors?</s>YELLIN: It's true she did a remarkable thing. She won by a lot there. But you know what, Tom? The bottom line is, he is right. He is still winning. He has more delegates. Despite what Clinton says, he has the popular vote. Senator Clinton really will have to pull more than just magic, some sort of slight of hand, something remarkable, to actually get the nomination.</s>FOREMAN: I want to listen to a little bit of sound from Obama and Clinton about this race, because they addressed the very thing you just mentioned.</s>OBAMA: We think that if, at the end, we end up having won twice as many states and having the most votes, then we should end up being the nominee.</s>H. CLINTON: I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else.</s>FOREMAN: Rick, this ha got to be confusing to an awful lot of voters out here. Here's Hillary Clinton saying, look, I received more votes. But that is because she is counting Michigan and Florida. Does that wash?</s>RICHARD STENGEL, MANAGING EDITOR, "TIME": Well, Tom, to use your magic conceit, it is kind of like a three-card monte game. She's moving the cards around and not telling you exactly what she is saying. What she is saying is, she is counting the votes in Michigan and Florida, which the Democratic Party says don't count. So, voters don't necessarily know that. But part of her argument is to basically say, look, she's not going to get more pledged delegates. That's pretty much impossible. But if she begins to approach him in the popular vote, she can say, look, the voters really want me.</s>FOREMAN: One of the things that came out of Pennsylvania is a lot of people were not happy with the rancor of this whole argument. Rick, do you think that that really is beginning to tell on her, even as she did well there?</s>STENGEL: It is funny, Tom, because the polls suggested that people blamed her more for changing the tenor of the campaign. I think over 60 percent thought that. Yet, a lot of those people also voted for her. I think, at the same time, voters can hold complex ideas in their head. They might think, you know what? Bad on her for doing this, but I still want her to be president.</s>FOREMAN: I want to take a look at a graphic here. Barack Obama is still rated favorably. But look at Hillary Clinton. Her unfavorable rating is 54 percent. There have also been polls that indicate that a lot of Democrats don't trust her, Jessica. What do you hear in the field? How is it that people want to elect somebody that they don't trust?</s>YELLIN: Well, there are two things going on. First, we should point these favorable/unfavorables were taken before the Pennsylvania primary. Could change. Americans love a winner. But beyond that, there are a lot of people who are Democrats who say the Republicans are so fierce and so tough, we need somebody who can be just basically as fierce and tough, just play dirty just like they do, and they think Clinton is more likely to do that than Obama.</s>FOREMAN: That has been the rap on Obama, Rick, the notion that he just cannot close the deal here, although the Obama people say, look, we have closed the deal. We have the numbers.</s>STENGEL: Well, and right. I mean, that is taking Hillary Clinton's language about closing the deal. They do maintain that we're closing the deal all along. The worrisome thing I think for him in a way is that does his message reach the people now that he needs to reach? That message of harmony, of going across the aisle with working-class voters, with older voters, I mean, that doesn't have so much resonance. From your clip, you heard her saying message in Indiana is jobs, jobs, jobs. That is not about reconciliation. That is not about fixing Washington. That's how I am going to help you. And he has to do a little bit more of that.</s>FOREMAN: Jessica, is he guilty of playing safety ball now, just saying, look, I have got a lead; I think it will last through whatever is going to happen; therefore, I don't have to campaign as hard?</s>YELLIN: No. I think what he has to do is -- he's gotten knocked off message. He has to get back on message. And he has stumbled a bit recently. I don't know if it's safety ball. It is a bit of a campaign struggle. I think one of his challenges right now, as we're all talking the theme of the week, he didn't get those white low-income voters, some of the folks that Rick was talking about.</s>FOREMAN: Yes, but you pointed out that really this is a problem for the whole party. This is not unique to him.</s>YELLIN: Exactly. And as the media keep focusing on this issue and Clinton does, too, these white low-income folks are people that the Democrats have had challenges with in election after election. Kerry didn't get them. Gore didn't get them. So, it is not uniquely an Obama problem. It's a Democratic problem. And they will both face that challenge in November, whichever one of them wins.</s>FOREMAN: Rick, when you back over all the voting so far, not just Pennsylvania, it seems like he has done fairly well with that group from time to time, just as she has.</s>STENGEL: Right. He did well with them in some of the early primaries, in Iowa and other places, and he's made inroads with them. He did a little bit better in Pennsylvania with those voters than he did in Ohio, but he still has to do a lot better. Jessica is right. Remember, we used to call those voters Reagan Democrats, because they basically leaned over and voted Republican and started voting Republican 20 years ago. The Democrats need to get them back. And the issue for the Democrats now is, who do we risk sacrificing, black voters and high-income and high-educated voters if Obama doesn't get the nomination, or white voters and older voters if Hillary gets the nomination?</s>FOREMAN: Jessica, to what degree are there Democrats out there just shaking their heads and saying, how is this possible? Six months ago, they thought they had the White House sewn up.</s>YELLIN: Yes. And you heard people say six months ago, I like them both and now you're hearing people say I don't like the other one. But bottom line, I do still hear people saying, no matter what, I am going to vote for the Democrat in November. We have got to get the Republicans out of the White House.</s>FOREMAN: And, Rick, the hard deal comes to you quick and last here. How soon will we have a nominee?</s>STENGEL: You know, you have to go back to your magic analogy. You would have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to know. I do think that we will have a nominee before the conventions. It will not go to the conventions. It may go all the way through June 3. If he doesn't win Indiana next week, it will just continue.</s>FOREMAN: For now, it's the secret of perpetual motion. Jessica, Rick, thanks for being here. There's a lot more coming up on THIS WEEK IN POLITICS. Former President Bill Clinton fires off another race comment. Can Hillary ever shut him up? Speaking of bills, how will you deal with skyrocketing food prices? And can your government help, or should it? And a look inside the twisted mind behind the ink-stained fingers of one of America's favorite political cartoonists.</s>MIKE LUCKOVICH, EDITORIAL CARTOONIST: I will be little bit disappointed when the president is actually chosen, though, because I like having the three. If one's not -- if one's not saying something stupid, the other one is. So, it works out well.