Bush, Accused of Dirty Tricks, Puts on a Happy Face
JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: George W. Bush puts on a happy face this Halloween. But are his ad men going for a big scare? (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSH CAMPAIGN AD) AL GORE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's never been a time when I've said something untrue.</s>NARRATOR: Really?</s>BERNARD SHAW, CNN ANCHOR: Al Gore's aides accuse Bush of dirty tricks. But are they ready to unveil some new scare-tactics of their own?</s>WOODRUFF: We'll look at the ghosts of Democratic presidential campaigns past, and how Gore measures up. Plus:</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When you walk in to cast your ballot, walk in as sons and daughters of the living God!</s>SHAW: The election-year rallying cry for the Christian right.</s>ANNOUNCER: From Washington, this is INSIDE POLITICS, with Judy Woodruff and Bernard Shaw.</s>SHAW: Thanks for joining us. There has been a lot of talk, as we enter this final week before the election about the confidence George W. Bush is exuding out there on the trail.</s>WOODRUFF: But a new Bush-campaign ad hammering Al Gore on the credibility issue suggests the governor's team may be feeling jittery about the closeness of this race this late in the game. Our Candy Crowley is traveling with Bush today in Washington state, Oregon and California, where Bush tried to ooze compassion, even as his ad team went negative.</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): George bush's last campaign stop in California had no music, no raucous crowds, no confetti. It did have the poignant story of a former addict.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just to live, you know, like my other half, you know, clean, you know, not being looked at as a convict -- you know, just being looked at as a child of God.</s>CROWLEY: In the last seven days of the election, George Bush returned to the opening theme of his 17-month campaign: compassionate conservatism. At an urban charity center in San Jose, Bush outlined his agenda to encourage faith-based and civic programs designed to help those in need. He listened to stories of lives that have changed and told them his own.</s>GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I was able to share with some of the men and women here that I quit drinking in 1986 -- haven't had a drop since then. It wasn't because of a government program, by the way, in my particular case. It's because I heard a higher call -- that these men and women don't stand alone.</s>CROWLEY: While Bush was gently closing the California campaign, his ad men were up and out with a blistering ad. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSH CAMPAIGN AD) NARRATOR: Remember when Al Gore said his mother-in-law's prescription cost more than his dog's? His own aides said the story was made up. Now Al Gore is bending the truth again. The press calls Gore's Social Security attacks "nonsense."</s>CROWLEY: The high-flying, confident Bush campaign said it was going to run only positive ads in this final week. The decision to run this one is acknowledgement that Al Gore's assault on Bush's Social Security plan has had an impact. "We are," said an aide, "setting the record straight." -- that, and then some. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSH CAMPAIGN AD) NARRATOR: Governor Bush sets aside $2.4 trillion to strengthen Social Security and pay all benefits.</s>GORE: There has never been a time in this campaign when I have said something that I know to be untrue. There's never been a time when I've said something untrue.</s>NARRATOR: Really?</s>CROWLEY: The Gore campaign went ballistic: "George Bush lied to the American people when he said he would run a positive campaign," said communications director Mark Fabiani. "Bush is losing and desperate. And now he has proven himself to be a hypocrite." (on camera): No apologies from the Bush campaign -- communications director Karen Hughes noted: "We always said, if Al Gore misrepresented the facts, we would respond." And they have. It's beginning to look like a rough seven days ahead. Candy Crowley, CNN, San Jose.</s>SHAW: The Bush camp says that new anti-Gore ad will begin airing today in 20 battleground states, including Florida, Illinois and California. Gore is campaigning in the Golden State today, as well as in Oregon. And, as our Jonathan Karl reports, the vice president's campaign is ready to unleash some new attacks of its own.</s>GORE: I don't know why anybody would think that. You know, I just don't understand why they would think that the national press corps has gotten out of hand. What do you think?</s>JONATHAN KARL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For the candidates, it's more tricks than treats for Halloween. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSH CAMPAIGN AD) NARRATOR: Now Al Gore is bending the truth again. The press calls Gore's Social Security attacks "nonsense."</s>KARL: As his campaign cries foul over the latest Republican attack-ad, the vice president is mocking Governor Bush's promise to change the tone in Washington.</s>GORE: We need less partisanship for sure. But the real question is: Who does he want to get along with? The special interests who want to pry open more loopholes in the tax code? The HMOs? The insurance industry? The oil companies? The big drug companies?</s>KARL: The Gore campaign hopes to make Bush pay for going negative, even as he promises to be positive.</s>CHRIS LEHANE, GORE CAMPAIGN SPOKESMAN: The people of this country are beginning to question whether he has what it takes to be president. As a result of those very, very serious questions, they have panicked. They have decided they need to run these personal negative attack ads.</s>KARL: But Democrats unleashed their own Halloween tricks, hoping to scare voters with horror stories about Bush's record. (</s>BEGIN AUDIO CLIP, DNC PHONE MESSAGE) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My mother died in June, 1995 after her nursing-home attendants caused and failed to treat her shattered hip bone. One week later, George W. Bush signed a law that weakened nursing-home standards in Texas.</s>KARL: Officials say the recorded phone calls are targeted to swing voters in five key states. And the Gore campaign is ready to hit the airwaves with the line of attack that Bush does not have the experience, judgment or knowledge to be president. As one Gore aide said, in the final days of the campaign -- quote -- "The mud will be flying from both sides."</s>GORE: I want you all to hear this. She is a Republican who has already voted for me.</s>KARL: Gore started the day off on a more positive note, greeting people at a Portland restaurant and sitting down with an Oregon family, who he promised a treat: more cash in their pockets if he's elected president.</s>GORE: We added up what you would get under the tax-cut proposal that I'm putting forward, and what you get under my opponent's plan. And there's a -- you get a lot more under -- under my plan.</s>KARL (on camera): Gore also used a new line to attack Bush's tax-cut plan, calling it -- quote -- "a form of class warfare on behalf of billionaires." Jonathan Karl, CNN, Portland, Oregon.</s>WOODRUFF: And we are joined now by Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times." Ron, what gives with this new lower level of discourse in the campaign? What's going on here? And let's start by talking about Bush and this very tough ad that they're running.</s>RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, this is the point in the campaign where you can usually tell what's going on with the candidates, more by what they do than what that say. So, on the one hand, as you said, Bush has been exuding confidence. The fact he's spending a day-and-a-half in California, a state that he's unlikely to win and won't need to win, even if he does, suggests that he feels very good about the way this race is going. On the other hand, the fact that he has put out this ad, which is really an attempt to discredit the messenger on Social Security, is a sign that he may be somewhat concerned about how it is playing. You know, we did polls yesterday at the "L.A. Times" in three battleground states: Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And Gore was ahead among seniors in all of them, especially in Florida, where they have been really focusing this attack on Bush's Social Security plan. And I think the ad may be a sign that the Bush campaign has some concern about whether that's working.</s>WOODRUFF: And what about -- well, let me ask you this: Why do it right now? I mean, and -- is Bush, by doing this, in any way running the risk that he's undoing this -- this effort that he's maintained -- over a few days anyway -- to run a very positive campaign?</s>BROWNSTEIN: Yes, there is a little cognitive dissonance, and there's always has been in the Bush campaign, because his primary message to independents down the stretch -- and really for most of the campaign -- his primary message to independent and swing voters has been that he can end the acrimony in Washington -- you know, that one hand held out the olive branch and the other hand, you know, have the hammer. So there is a little bit of that problem. But it doesn't seem to have been insurmountable for him. I think that he really hasn't paid too high a price. Voters haven't seen him as particularly negative. And, you know, they tend to view attacks on politicians as the thing that politicians do. So I'm not sure that this will hurt him that much. And I also wonder how much either of these attacks back and forth may move voters in the final days.</s>WOODRUFF: CNN was told today that this new Bush ad is running in some 20 states -- 20 states including California, Illinois and Florida. The Gore phone calls that we saw in Jonathan Karl's piece.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.</s>WOODRUFF: He said targeted to swing voters in five states. Now what has Gore accomplished with this?</s>BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think Gore -- Gore and Bush seem to have very different goals in the sort of questions they're raising about each other, the personal questions. For the most part, I think Bush is primarily aiming at his base when he goes out and he talks about ethics. When he talks about not trusting -- not being able to trust gore, he is bringing -- he is poking at the nerve that is still the most exposed for Republicans: the desire tend to the Clinton era, to repudiate Clinton by defeating Gore. Now, on the other hand, I think when the Democrats are talking about Bush's experience and questioning whether he's ready to be president, they are primarily, I think, aiming at independent voters who have clearly made -- it seems clear like Bush better, think he's more trustworthy than Gore. But this is the one area where they still have the most personal doubt about him. I'm sorry, like Bush better -- think of him as more trustworthy than Gore. But this is the area where they have the most doubt about Bush: experience, readiness to be president. So I think they have different strategic goals: Bush primarily talking to his base; Gore primarily talking to swing voters.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, we're going to also bring in now to this discussion our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield. Hello, Jeff.</s>JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Howdy.</s>WOODRUFF: You know, some people look at this and say, well, it always gets nasty at the end of the campaign. Is that the case, and how do you see what's going on here?</s>GREENFIELD: Maybe it's because I used to work in politics in another, you know, geological era -- first of all, I think this has been one of the most civil and issue-driven campaigns in a very long time. Second, I think you have to make some distinctions: for one campaign to challenge the other's experience and the other campaign to challenge the other's credibility, seems to me in the context of what we used to think of as dirty campaigns, pretty clean, pretty fair game, let's say. Neither of them strike me as beyond the pale. The things that I think that we have heard recently that ought to raise an eyebrow are ads that suggest that somebody is directly or indirectly sort of indifferent or callous about somebody's, you know, death. I mean, the idea that -- it's what Bush did to McCain about breast cancer, or rather an independent group did, attacking McCain in the New York primary; the notion that the -- this NAACP ad that implies that a Bush refusal to sign a bill is like killing this woman's relative all over again. Now, that's not -- those aren't campaign ads, but that's where the rough stuff is. And my sense is the really rough stuff is going to come a) through independent expenditures and b) beneath the radar screen, you know, in direct mail and phone calls rather than on television.</s>WOODRUFF: All right, let's -- I want to keep Jeff part of this conversation and get back to you, Ron, you talked about the "Los Angeles Times" closer look yesterday at three battleground states. Share with us what your finding there underneath the numbers, the obvious numbers on top that show a very close race in all three.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think the overriding story is that all three states are very much still up for grabs. We looked at Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, the three states that are now the most fiercely contested --the Democrats have sort of peeled back their efforts in Ohio -- and what was striking, Judy, was that you get the feeling heading into the final week of this election that there are virtually an infinite amount of variables that could go one way or the other and tilt these states. Let me give you one example, in Pennsylvania we had Bush up by 2 points, I know some other polls have had Gore slightly up. We had Bush drawing well enough among union members to hold Gore to 57 percent among union households. The AFL-CIO goal nationwide is to hit 62 percent vote for Gore among union households. If the AFL-CIO hits its target, which is now just slightly below, and nothing else changes in Pennsylvania, the two men are in a dead heat. I think that's the kind of race we have all the way across the country. You can look at very small changes in voter preferences in this last week, the share of the Nader vote that Bush -- I'm sorry -- that Gore is able to peel back in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, very small changes that in an ordinary year wouldn't matter much matter a lot this year because of the underlying parity of the parties and the basic even division of the country between these two guys.</s>WOODRUFF: And, Jeff, all of this spells problems for Gore, right?</s>GREENFIELD: If you -- I think actually -- and it spells problems for both of them, because you would think -- you would think in a -- and I don't even know how to describe a normal year anymore, but in a normal year, yes, the fact that Gore seems to be having to fight for more states than he should have put away than Bush. But what -- I think Ron Brownstein is dead on: every time there's been a close election, in 1960, in '68 and '76, these battleground states we talk about have sort of split almost 50/50. For the last 20 years, virtually all of these battleground states have gone with the winner and it's not -- it's that these things are so close that I think the normal confident prediction of folks is, well, we know where this vote or that vote is going, really doesn't apply this year. I think somebody figured out that there are several dozen variables right now in which if the states break the right way you will have a tie in the Electoral College, which, you know, we talked a little bit about yesterday. This election, I think -- we are coming into an election that is less predictable in more places than any election I can remember going back, you know, to I don't know when, to John Kennedy and Richard Nixon, I guess.</s>WOODRUFF: A great story, but please give us a rule that we can count on. OK, Jeff Greenfield, Ron Brownstein, thank you, both. Still ahead on INSIDE POLITICS, inspiring the voters to cast ballots -- a look at get-out-the-vote efforts in key battleground states.