House and Senate Compromise Bill Faces Final Votes Next Week; What's in the GOP Compromise Tax Bill?; Omarosa Manigault Leaving the White House.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Good morning, everyone. I'm John Berman.</s>POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Poppy Harlow. Republicans in Congress striking a deal on tax reform in what could be a huge win for President Trump. Do not, though, put a notch in the W column just yet.</s>BERMAN: No. The story this morning is numbers. Not the numbers in the bill, but the numbers on the floor. Can Republicans cobble together the votes in the Senate? It's not they don't have the support, it's that they can't get the people in the room. Two senators indisposed and now the vice president having to change his schedule. CNN's MJ Lee with the very latest for us on Capitol Hill --</s>MJ. MJ LEE, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER: Hey, John and Poppy. This is about to be a really hectic couple of days for Republicans who are trying to get this tax reform bill across the finish line. How quickly do they want to move? They would like to see this bill on President Trump's desk by Wednesday. And, John, as you said, the Senate is a place wherever every vote counts right now because Republicans can only afford to lose two votes. Now they are preparing for a couple of potential complications and the first is that Senator John McCain is now at Walter Reed Hospital. He of course is being treated for brain cancer and we don't know when he's going to be back. His office said yesterday that he will try to be back as soon as possible. The second member that we're watching is Senator Thad Cochran. We of course know that he had also had a set of health issues that he has been on and off, absent from the Senate. We don't know for sure if he will be back in time or if he will be here at all is sort of the issue here. And then Senator Susan Collins, Senator Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, these are some of the names you hear, leadership sort of counts their votes to make sure that they have everyone behind this bill. They have made specific requests so unclear if they will actually end up getting to that firm yes. And as we said, Vice President Mike Pence we have now learned is delaying his trip to Israel, and we haven't gotten official word if this is at all related to tax reform, but as you know, he, the vice president, ends up being the tie breaker vote in the Senate if things get close. And you can sort of read the tea leaves there. And the hard reality sort of underlying this entire debate is the simple fact that this tax plan bill from Republicans is very, very unpopular. Take a look at this Quinnipiac poll, 26 percent of people, only 26 percent, say that they approve of this Republican tax plan bill and only -- or rather, 55 percent of people saying that they disapprove. So a lot of Republicans are going to be weighing this hard reality as they try to get this bill through the finish line in the next couple of days -- John and Poppy.</s>HARLOW: MJ Lee, thank you so much. I would note 66 percent of Republicans in that poll liked this -- liked this bill. Very much down the party lines. All right, for the politics, big, yes. The bottom line, the impact on you at home is big, important and complicated. Luckily for us, we have our chief business correspondent, Christine Romans, here to break it all down. So, Romans, what's your bottom line on this?</s>CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, details are really important here. You know, they've hammered out some big compromises, yes, but some of the biggest changes help corporations and the wealthy. Here's what we know. The top individual rate slashed to 37 percent. That's lower than both previous bills. It is a concession to top earners in high tax states who are losing that state and local tax breaks. On mortgage interest, the compromise reads in the middle, filers can deduct the interest on mortgages up to $750,000, that is three times, by the way, the typical home in America. And the corporate rate is cut to 21 percent. Now both bills promised 20 percent for the corporate rate, but cutting that rate 21 percent raises $100 billion in revenue helping to pay for tax cuts. Now the GOP argues lower corporate rates will help everyday Americans but there's no guarantee that will add jobs or raise wages. Now President Trump's closing argument is the bill is a giant middle class tax cut. In reality, it's less than advertised. We'll need to see the final bill but in past versions middle class tax cuts are modest and they have a short shelf life. In fact most middle class families pay more by the year 2027 under the Senate plan with the largest share helping up the top 1 percent along with a few other provisions, like doubling the estate tax exemption, raising the threshold for the individual alternative minimum tax, and reducing taxable income for pass-through businesses. Essentially lowering their tax rate. Now a bright spot, a lot of people at every corner of the economy will feel this -- these deductions. The final bill retains the tax breaks for medical expenses, retain tax breaks for education, student loans, grad students and teach spending. It also repeals the Obamacare individual mandate. So there's a lot in here, guys.</s>BERMAN: There is one person, Christine Romans, a very important person who is looking at this and saying, though, people should be concerned about the deficit.</s>ROMANS: The outgoing Fed chief, Janet Yellen, in her last press conference yesterday really going out on a high note. I mean, no one that has presided over a declining unemployment rate like Janet Yellen, she says the economy is doing well but she says she is concerned about adding to the debt. Listen.</s>JANET YELLEN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRWOMAN: I am personally concerned about the U.S. debt situation, taking what is already a significant problem and making it worse is -- it is of concern to me.</s>ROMANS: The idea here that when the economy is growing and things are doing well in the economy, is that the time to be adding to deficits and debt? That's actually the time to be cutting deficits, right, and addressing the debt situation. It's something she said that families should be concerned about.</s>BERMAN: All right. Christine Romans, great to have you with us. Thank you very, very much. Joining us now, Patrick Healy, a CNN political analyst, and Mary Katharine Ham, CNN political commentator. Look, I don't think there's any question, Patrick, that the Republicans have the support they need in Congress to get this through. But it is getting very complicated, particularly in the Senate right now. John McCain in Walter Reed right now. We don't really know how he's doing right now. Obviously everyone concerned about his health. So Mike Pence staying home. I mean, this just goes to show the razor thin margin here.</s>PATRICK HEALY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. I mean, this is -- this is looking like a nail-biter. And as we know, Bob Corker was against this when it came up for a vote in the Senate before, so you could presume, and he's sending signals, that he's still, you know, probably a no right now.</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>HEALY: So they're one vote away. You've got John McCain, you've got Thad Cochran, you've got Susan Collins who is sending sort of mixed signals it seems right now.</s>BERMAN: Like Susan Collins does.</s>HEALY: As she does. And you have Mike Pence basically saying, you know, I'm going to stay home. So as much as President Trump is going to be tweeting about what a big win this could be for Republicans, you may find yourself with a calendar next week where they simply don't have the senators in place to vote, and then they're looking at a real problem, which is the Doug Jones problem. If for some reason the calendar doesn't work for the Senate --</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>HEALY: -- and they need to kick, you know, this past Christmas, they're looking at Alabama certifying Doug Jones' victory and that seat flipping from Republican to Democrat, which, you know, creates even a bigger math problem.</s>HARLOW: Mary Katharine, the president just a few days ago called this a giant tax cut for Christmas. Giant tax cut for corporations, for sure, even a tax cut for the richest, which the president said would not happen, it is happening. And yes, middle class Americans, poor Americans will get a tax cut to an extent, but when you do look at the polling that MJ Lee pointed out, you've got more than half of Americans thinking this is kind of a big lump of coal for Christmas for me.</s>MARY KATHARINE HAM, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, probably does, because all we talk about is the corporate side of this and the wealthy side of this, and the argument seems to be from opponents that you can't help the middle class if you're also going to help these people, even though, by the way, President Barack Obama advocated lowering the corporate tax rate. The fact is that in the House bill and I think in what we will see in the final is that when you double the standard deduction for everyone, everyone double that was protected from taxes before will be protected now, and they will actually see that in their paychecks so they might be confused if they haven't heard that message and then they see it in their paychecks later. Look, I think the GOP has felt much better about what the numbers were on this than on health care.</s>HARLOW: Yes.</s>HAM: This is much less thorny, but the practical reality is that you have to get everyone there and the margins are thin. But if you have like a Murkowski and a Collins and a McCain feeling pretty good about this, as long as you can get them in the room, I think you are fine.</s>HEALY: Well, part of the reason why this is unpopular is that a lot of the deductions that's supposedly the middle class is getting, they're already have. I mean, the point is this tax bill keeps a lot of those deductions in place and that's being presented as some kind of big win.</s>HARLOW: Medical, et cetera.</s>HEALY: Medical, et cetera, student benefits, you know, graduate student deduction. But the reality is that the gains here, the real gains, are coming for corporations.</s>BERMAN: More of the gains.</s>HAM: Seventy percent of Americans do not itemize.</s>HEALY: Right.</s>HAM: And those are just normal Americans. High income Americans itemize, 70 percent don't. You double the standard deduction, you widen that to 90 percent of American taxpayers who don't have to itemize --</s>HEALY: But the wages are being framed as a middle class tax cut. I mean, the reality is that corporate tax --</s>HAM: Because that is actually a tax cut to the middle class and so that's true.</s>HEALY: But corporate tax is going down from 35 percent to 21 percent. And high-income earners going conceivably from a 37 percent -- you know, a 39 percent range to a 37 -- that's real significant money. That's many, many billions of dollars.</s>HAM: Right. So was Obama incorrect that we should lower the corporate tax rate so we can make ourselves more competitive? Was he incorrect about that?</s>HEALY: No, but I think --</s>HAM: Because I think he was correct.</s>HEALY: I think this is the bill that you're dealing with, though, and those are the -- I'm just saying the way this is --</s>HAM: The idea is the same, is it not?</s>HEALY: The way this is being framed is a middle class tax cut.</s>BERMAN: Mary Katharine, declaring --</s>HAM: The fact that it does lower taxes for the middle class.</s>BERMAN: Declaring her fealty for President Obama's economic policy right now.</s>HAM: That particular part, yes.</s>BERMAN: OK. I want to move on from taxes right now. We're going to have a few days to talk about this. We'll see where the votes go. Omarosa who is still sort of employed by the White House right now but is leaving by January 20th.</s>HAM: Can I say great?</s>BERMAN: Right. She resigned or was fired yesterday. Look, she did an interview on "Good Morning America" this morning, talked about why she left, how she left, but she said something fascinating that I think -- I mean, everyone sit up in their chair. She was asked about Charlottesville. How she felt about the president's sort of reaction to Charlottesville. Listen to what she said.</s>OMAROSA MANIGAULT, WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS AIDE: When I have a chance to tell my story, Michael, quite a story to tell. As the only African-American woman in this White House, as a senior staff and assistant to the president, I have seen things that have made me uncomfortable, that have upset me, that have affected me deeply and emotionally, it has affected my community and my people. And when I can tell my story it is a profound story that I know the world would want to hear.</s>BERMAN: Mary Katharine, do that thing you just did. Right there.</s>HAM: Get ready for the Omarosa heel turn. I mean, she is --</s>HARLOW: Yes. Book deal, anyone?</s>HEALY: Book deal. Book deal, right? Nice story.</s>HAM: The question was always like, who's going to be the Scott McClellan who writes the tell-all about this administration. It's not going to be Sean Spicer.</s>HEALY: Not Sean.</s>HAM: He's writing the more pro-Trump book. Omarosa started as a reality show villain. She knows how to play this role. She knows how to turn when it suits her and she may be the tell-all girl.</s>BERMAN: Might there be some substance, Patrick Healy, in what she has to say here? I mean, she knows she was the only African-American at the table a lot of the time. She watched the president's response to Charlottesville --</s>HARLOW: Highest ranking African-American woman.</s>BERMAN: And she doesn't seem happy about it.</s>HEALY: No --</s>BERMAN: She won't say it there but she doesn't seem happy about it.</s>HEALY: I think the biggest substance that anyone can say is revealing what the president actually says behind closed doors. I mean, about Charlottesville, about sort of black voters generally. I mean, the way he deals with race but especially what happened around Charlottesville and afterwards. If she's willing to go there, I'm very -- I mean, like Mary Katharine, she knows how to play kind of the -- sort of the villain role in things and I think she's looking to sell a good book as opposed to --</s>HAM: But he also probably gave her material so yes.</s>HEALY: We'll see if she uses it.</s>BERMAN: Patrick Healy, Mary Katharine Ham, go Ducks, thanks so much for being with us.</s>HAM: Thank you.</s>BERMAN: All right. Still rejecting evidence that Russia meddled and refusing to accept that Russia poses a threat in the future, a new "Washington Post" story gives an inside look at the president's mindset.</s>HARLOW: And a report on that. One year later we go back to Beattyville, Kentucky, a town where more than half of the folks live below the poverty line, they bet everything on President Trump. Has he come through for them?</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's not the man I thought he was. He's not. He's not. He's just -- he's overburdened and he's not getting nothing done.</s>HARLOW: But he says he's accomplished more than any president --</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He has not. He talks a good talk, but he can't walk the walk.