Spanish Prime Minister Warns E.U. Brexit Summit May not Happen; UAE Considers Clemency for Jailed U.K. Student
ALLEN: Spain's prime minister warns that the E.U.'s historic Brexit summit set for Sunday might not happen at all. Madrid is digging in its heels over the tiny British territory of Gibraltar on Spain's southern tip. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says he'll oppose the draft agreement unless it recognizes Madrid's role in future negotiations over Gibraltar. He was asked what would happen if Spain doesn't get what it wants.</s>PEDRO SANCHEZ, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER (through translator): If there is no agreement, evidently what will happen is the that the European Council will not take place.</s>ALLEN: Well, this is just one obstacle that British prime minister Theresa May is dealing with as she heads to Brussels to put the final touches on the landmark Brexit agreement. Gibraltar is disputed territory and has been a sore point for Spain for centuries. And the British citizens who live in Gibraltar are keenly aware of what's at stake. For more, here's CNN's Nic Robertson from London.</s>NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Gibraltar, population 30,000 proud Brits, a vestige of colonial power --</s>ROBERTSON (voice-over): -- now a not-so-strategic rocky spit straggling out into the Mediterranean from Southern Spain, more than 1,000 miles from mainland U.K. and now, not unsurprisingly putting a wrinkle in Brexit negotiations. Last year, the Rock's chief minister gave me a flavor of behind the scenes tensions.</s>FABIAN PICARDO, GIBRALTAR CHIEF MINISTER: Spain insists that Gibraltar must be Spanish and that we must hand over a slice of Gibraltar at least to her whilst we become entirely Spanish.</s>ROBERTSON: Now come the 11th hour of Brexit talks in Brussels and Spain is throwing a wrench in the E.U.'s carefully coordinated plans.</s>SANCHEZ (through translator): I have to say that we feel displeased. We found in the withdrawal agreement a number of elements, one article, Article 184, that call into question Spain's capacity to negotiate with the United Kingdom on the future of Gibraltar and the Spanish government cannot accept that.</s>MAY: I spoke to Prime Minister Sanchez of Spain. We have been working constructively with the governments of Spain and Gibraltar in the negotiations on the withdrawal agreement and we want this work to continue in the future relationship. But I was absolutely clear that Gibraltar's British sovereignty will be protected.</s>ROBERTSON: As the clock ticks down, tensions on this are rising; all 27 E.U. leaders must sign off on the deal. There is impatience to get it done.</s>ANGELA MERKEL, CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY (through translator): We still have an objection in Spain. I can't say exactly how we will solve this issue but I hope it will be solved by Sunday. Over the coming days more work will be done on the future relationship between Great Britain and the E.U.</s>ROBERTSON: And while they decide, back on the rock, views expressed to me last year are likely only hardening. What is it you're worried about that Spain wants here? What are they trying to get out of this Brexit deal?</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What they want to get out is Gibraltar back.</s>ROBERTSON: They have been through hard times with Spain here before. Border blockade from '69 to '82.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Spain, they have always treated us the same. It's -- it doesn't change.</s>ROBERTSON: And although almost everyone here voted against Brexit, they are British before Spanish.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One hundred percent British. I'd rather die than be a Spaniard.</s>ROBERTSON: In Brussels, talks are far from that kind of life and death choice. Quiet diplomacy is still the winning formula. Spain's longstanding desire to have a greater say in the future of the rock for now at least seems unlikely to crash the process. Predictions the rock's residents gave me last year look set to hold true.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm quietly confident that we will find a way to survive. That we will find a way to take Gibraltar forward despite Spain's attempts.</s>ROBERTSON: It would be foolish, however, to think Gibraltar won't be making the headlines again at another delicate moment in the tortuous Brexit process -- Nic Robertson, CNN, London.</s>ALLEN: Joining us now from London to discuss this is Henry Newman. He's director of the think tank Open Europe. He's also a former advisor to pro-Brexit politician, Michael Gove. Henry, good morning to you.</s>HENRY NEWMAN, OPEN EUROPE: Good morning.</s>ALLEN: We appreciate you joining us. Was anyone expecting the rock of Gibraltar to be a possible stumbling block to this agreement coming before E.U. leaders on Sunday?</s>NEWMAN: I don't think it's a total surprise. We saw some noises out of Spain earlier in the process when Spain insisted it would have a veto over the final negotiations of a future trade deal over the matter of Gibraltar. That was a little bit of politicking because ultimately every country has a veto because the trade deal future will require unanimous agreement by all E.U. members. But clearly the news that Spanish prime minister has been at his post for half a year and he clearly feels that this is an important opportunity to sort of stake his claim on how to be the defender of Spanish interests. So I think it's more about the politics and the substance. But of course, politics can get in the way of substance.</s>ALLEN: Absolutely. So the summit on Sunday, if the Spain issue is resolved, do you think E.U. leaders will approve? And if so, what then?</s>NEWMAN: Well, I suspect we'll get to the summit on Sunday, there will be a side arrangement on Gibraltar. Then the real challenge for the prime minister comes back in London, when she tries to introduce this deal on the floor of the House of Commons. It seems overwhelmingly likely that MPs will not accept this from her own party. The opposition, the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and others are also implacably opposed at this point. So she may well come back with a deal but then be unable to get it through to the Commons. There's no point in having a deal that you can agree in Brussels at a summit if it doesn't work in Westminster. We saw some of that with David Cameron's renegotiation of the E.U. back in 2016, where he got a deal that he was quite happy with on the renegotiation, tried to bring it back to Westminster --</s>NEWMAN: -- and it completely fell apart. I'm sure that E.U. leaders and the U.K. government, people on Downing Street, are very reluctant to reopen the deal. But they may have to. There are very serious concerns, particularly around the insurance policy for Northern Ireland, the backstop, that are deeply held by both the Conservatives and their partners in government, the DUP, the Ulster Unionists.</s>ALLEN: Right. And other citizens are worried about the availability of medicine with Brexit and the economy. I want to ask you, how do you see the future of the U.K. if she gets this through?</s>NEWMAN: Well, I think if she gets the deal through, I think there will be a huge sigh of relief. We'll then have a standstill transition, where, although we'll be technically out the European Union, everything will stay the same. That will give the U.K. the opportunity to start negotiating a future relationship. We don't have that clarity yet. There are many different possible outcomes, including, of course, the default, which is that the clock ticks out, the sand runs out of the timer and we leave without any deal at all. Some, of course, are very worried about that. We've done some work at one think tank and we broadly feel that over the medium term, the effects on the U.K. economy will be relatively limited, particularly if the government took unilateral action to mitigate that by, for example, lowering tariffs and doing some deregulation on our openness to foreign investment. But the actual moment of a no deal could be very disruptive for both sides on things like aviation; you were referring to medicines before. So it would depend on what actions the U.K. and E.U. together were willing to take to mitigate those effects.</s>ALLEN: Right. No deal just sounds like an ominous future because no one would know what that would lead to. We know that many in Parliament are against her on this, what she has delivered. What are the reasons that it is so disliked?</s>NEWMAN: Sure. I think the problem is that she, the prime minister, has never really been able to explain that actually Brexit would require a compromise. The country was split 52-48. They have to negotiate something that needs to be agreed in Brussels where it was the 27 Brussels themselves and the commission has their own interests and then she has to try to deliver it through a divided Parliament where opinions are hardened and become more polarized over the past two years. She hasn't been able to explain that compromise and tradeoff is required, particularly around the question of Northern Ireland. There's a huge amount of genuine concern because the current deal on the table would mean, for Northern Ireland in particular, the E.U. would be able to introduce new rules and regulations that would bind Northern Ireland, potentially in perpetuity, without any ability of the people of Northern Ireland to either influence the rules or say no to them. So in constitutional terms, that's very problematic. Unless we find a clear way through that, I think the Northern Irish party, the DUP, which she relies on for her government, will continue to oppose this very, very strongly. So I hope the government does look at that because we have to find a deal that works for both communities in Northern Ireland. The Nationalists, their interests have been protected by the Irish government, sitting at the table in Brussels and insisting they have this insurance policy, the backstop. But the concerns of the Unionist community haven't been met and they're profoundly worried by the current deal.</s>ALLEN: It's amazing how many people are watching Brexit because it is so complex and the stakes are high. We'll continue to watch it closely. Thank you so much for your insights, Henry Newman. Thanks, Henry. Still ahead here, the United Arab Emirates is taking a second look at a case that has caused an international uproar. Why it is now considering clemency for a jailed British student.