Republican Candidates for President Examined
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Michael Smerconish. And after spending the weekend at Las Vegas for the GOP Debate, here's what I'm wondering. Is this the year of the great experiment? Do we finally learn what happens when the Republican Party nominates a pure die hard conservative? Hey, Ted Cruz. Instead of someone more pragmatic whose politics don't check all the idealogical boxes like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, maybe even Donald Trump. Now, the purest snow that the party's most decisive victories in the last 35 years have been with die hard conservatives, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. They say when the party nominates more establishment types like Bob Dole or John McCain, and Mitt Romney, those candidates lose at accounts compelling but there's an alternate history. One that begins not with Reagan but with the drubbing that a very conservative Barry Goldwater took in 1964. This school of thoughts says that today even Reagan himself couldn't get nominated in a party dominated by Tea Party Freedom Caucus types. McCain and Romney, they lose because they were insufficiently conservative but because of the contortions that were demanded of them by even angelical questions and other social conservatives in primary and caucuses. Maybe if Romney had run as the reasonable Republican who governed the blue state of the nation instead of a severe conservative, he could have beaten Obama. Instead his many flip flops made him damaged goods in the general. So what's the answer? Probably that no experiment will finally settle the debate because neither side would accept the outcome. If Cruz is nominated and loses badly to Quentin, conservatives will blame the media and say, "Well, moderates took a walk." And if Trump, Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie gets nominated and loses, the retort will again be that they were insufficiently pure. For the Republican Party, good is perceived as the enemy of the perfect. And as a result, victory it seems illusive. I've done a lot of voices to weigh in on politics today including Sarah Palin, Tom Ridge and the political powerhouse of Bob Beckel, Peter Wehner, and E.D Hill. First of, I wanted to talk to somebody who's been seeing this rift opening up ever since the days of Richard Nixon for whom he worked. Joining me now is Patrick Buchanan. Patrick, Merry Christmas. Thanks for coming back to the program.</s>PATRICK BUCHANAN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Merry Christmas to you, Michael.</s>SMERCHONISH: Will you respond to the argument that for a Republican to win the White House you've got to increase the non-white vote and you can't get that done with the pure conservative?</s>BUCHANAN: Well, I think there is no doubt about it that the Republican parties got increased its penetration and vote among minority voters that it did very badly but of course Barack Obama was exceptionally strong. African-Americans, he won on 24 to 1 I think in 2008. I agree with that, Michael, but you also need to get out to Republican base. In the entire Republican priority, you need to unite the party. And frankly if you look at what Donald Trump offers this year, there is an ex-factor (ph), Michael, this enormous excitement going on where you can get 15,000 people in a hanger and they say Arizona in December. At the same time, you take a look at the turn out for this debate. I mean 27 million or something like that for a Republican Debate. So something is going on out there that goes beyond the traditional demographic breakdown.</s>SMERCONISH: As I just mentioned in Vegas, I heard a lot of people saying maybe this is the year we run the experiment because there's this argument within the party. Do you go for a bridge builder or a so called pure conservative? You wrote a column recently about what happened with Goldwater in '64 and you seem to come down on the side that says, "You run the pure conservative and be damned for those moderates you might get in the way."</s>BUCHANAN: Well, Michael, the difference this year is let's take Goldwater is a pure conservative, say, and Ted Cruz. In June of the election year, Goldwater was down over 50 points. Cruz is now running within four or five points with Hillary Rodham Clinton. So it's a much closer natural race. But I do agree that demographically and given the blue wall the democrats have established with those 18 stage that have gone democratic six trade times. It is an uphill climb for a Republican to win that election. One thing that got going for him though is in that two years of Barack Obama and the demand for change in this country and you can see it over there with Bernie Sanders two million contribute -- contributors the demand for change in this country is extraordinary, Michael.</s>SMERCONISH: I heard from some conservatives in Vegas and they said, "Look, we're not going to make the mistake that we made in '08 or 2012." McCain was not a real conservative. Romney was not a real conservative. And my response was to say, "They had to so contort themselves in the nomination process that they lost the credibility that they needed to win a general election against Obama. But you know how it is, Pat. Everybody likes to look at a cycle and say sit there, I told you maybe there's something in the cycle where we settle this once and for all.</s>BUCHANAN: Let me just talk about McCain. He was down eight points when I was out of the Denver Convention for the Democrats and I said Obama is going to win this thing and that was the next morning right after Obama's speech, what did McCain do? He picks Sarah Palin, all right. And she gave a stunning speech at that convention.</s>SMERCONISH: I remember.</s>BUCHANAN: And for a while, two weeks after that, McCain oddly was five points up. Now, and then of course you had the whole economy saying break them, McCain handled it badly, so he went down to defeat. But the point that it says that there's a correlation. Now, Bush was in there for eight years, everybody wanted him gone. He's down of it lower than Nixon almost, when Nixon departed. And we got Obama and the people have had enough for that. And the demand for change is very dramatic, Michael. I agree with you if you got a normal saying, will you run the normal demography? Let's say we got a Bush-Clinton race. I think Clinton would be the favored and the Republicans were groovy (ph), you have to hold Ohio and all the rest of it, Florida. But this could be a dramatically different kind of race given what's going on in the United States and what's going on in Europe. Look at Poland, look at Hungary, look at what's happening in France and places. All of these places, the rise is really moving.</s>SMERCONISH: But Patrick, a subject you pay close attention to, the shifting demographic of this country. Papa Bush got 59 percent of the white vote in ADA, and it earned in 426 electoral votes. Mitt Romney got the exact same share of the white vote and it only yield him 206 electoral votes largely because the face of the country has changed. That's the message I don't think the Republican Party has yet quite understood.</s>BUCHANAN: Well, I've written about that in several books...</s>SMERCONISH: I know.</s>BUCHANAN: ... Michael. And I will say this, the Republican Party is under a death sentence. There is no doubt about it. And I urged them back in 1990. Look, let's halt immigration, a moratorium on all immigration, assimilate, Americanize the folks who have come here who are poor as they come up and go through the working class, in middle class, lo and behold just like the Irish and the Italians, and the Jewish folks and the Poli folks. Suddenly under Nixon back in the mid '60s, we moved them all right into the Republican Party and Nixon won 49 states that hugely popular fall, Michael, 49 states. Now, unless you have a time out on immigration and even for a long period, I think the Republican Party is under a sentence of death.</s>SMERCONISH: As I sat in Vegas at the Venetian listening to the applause lines from the nine candidates on stage, I continually said to myself, it wins these audience, I don't know that it wins the nation. And that's where I think the party could come up short. You got the final word on this.</s>BUCHANAN: I think you've got a very good point, Michael. I was very concerned when I heard this people telling tell him, just saying out loud, "We're going to start shooting down on Russian planes in Syria." In the Cold War, Eisenhower never did something like that. Trum (ph) -- I mean, Nixon didn't break and didn't -- then I remember when Poland's solidarity was crushed. I urged the president be tougher, be tougher (inaudible), why didn't do it. You know, he sent Xerox machines to solidarity. I think the last thing the American people want is a war with a nuclear arm power like Russia over Syria or in Bashar Assad (ph). So I think the Republican Party is too far out in the neocon, hawkish position on this except frankly for Cruz and for Trump pursuing the one who get along with Mr. Putin..</s>SMERCONISH: And for Rand Paul. He may not be of the same league but I was...</s>BUCHANAN: ... Rand Paul had a great night.</s>SMERCONISH: Yeah, I was drove to have this voice on the stage because but for Rand Paul and to a lesser extent, Cruz and Trump, you are right. We wouldn't have heard that argument and the argument is we are not necessarily making ourselves safe every time we open the new base in response to</s>ISIS. BUCHANAN: Exactly. And then what they are saying is I think is their National Security can service if the vital interest of the United States were at stake and in care off. We got to be strong and tough and tell our addresses, but the IG and we're going to start shooting them Russian planes in Syria is madness.</s>SMERCONISH: Patrick Buchanan, thank you as always.</s>BUCHANAN: Thank you, Michael, and again, Merry Christmas.</s>SMERCONISH: You too, sir. This and so much more to get into this week. And joining me, former Mitt Romney advisor, Peter Wehner, now senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. Conservative Analyst E.D. Hill and Democratic Consultant, Bob Beckel. E.D., great to finally have you here.</s>E.D. HILL: Thank you.</s>SMERCONISH: Beckel, you know I love you. Peter, I'm glad your son's soccer season is finally over so that I can get you on my program. You're first Peter Wehner. React to what you just heard from the (inaudible) about the experiment. What happens if it's a pure conservative?</s>PETER WEHNER, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISER: Well it depends on which the conservative how or who are the conservative are you taking about. Like Marco Rubio is a conservative. He's a product of the Tea Party. He is a person that is a traditional conservative. I don't know that it is so much the -- where they come down on the issues because Cruz and Rubio are pretty close on each. So I think a lot of this has to do with this position temperament and I would say that Ted Cruz is a crusader and Marco Rubio is a persuader. I tend to break politicians down into two -- those two categories. And I think that when you are a Republican on the national state, the presidential election now where you've lost five in the last six presidential elections in the popular vote, you need to have somebody who is a persuader. I think that temperamentally, Ted Cruz is problematic. Look, Reagan was a conservative and Goldwater was a conservative. But then a very, very different approach in terms of politics. Goldwater had serrated edges. He scared people. Reagan did not. He had the ability to bring people on board and there was a grace to him and a niece (ph) that he have.</s>SMERCONISH: So I'm hearing from Peter that it's really not the issues that it's temperament. Do you agree with that? I saw you shaking your head while Pat was speaking.</s>E.D HILL, CONSERVATIVE ANALYST: Yeah, I think that temperament is important. But I also think that because of that, people aren't looking. I do not think you're going to get some extreme conservative. I don't say that the nation...</s>HILL: Yeah.</s>SMERCONISH: You're not going to get Ted Cruz?</s>HILL: I don't believe so. We keep on focusing on the radical left and the radical right. When the majority of Americans, if we talk to them, they're in the middle, they're squished there in the middle. It can be a little, little that way. But they are right there. They are looking for somebody who gives voice to their frustration with Washington. And that's why nobody likes the Democratic Party right now or the Republicans. Look at Obama, it'll -- but look at any of the leadership.</s>SMERCONISH: I so agree with what you've just said and yet you've never know it to look at the media and I think people then falsely perceive because they've got talking heads on the far left and far right. They think well that's where the country is and they're not.</s>HILL: Yeah, because they make money creating argument.</s>SMERCONISH: Correct.</s>HILL: That's how you do it. It is what media does. But the fact is that when you talk to people out there, you walk through an airport, you go to your fifth grade class coffee, "Who are they talking about?" Who are they -- Even sometimes grudgingly they are like Trump. That's it.</s>SMERCONISH: Bob, I want to show you a commercial because I find it very ironic that the two Hispanic candidates, actually Cuban-Americans to be more definitive on the Republican side of the aisle or the ones now duping it out on who is toughest on immigration. This is a Ted Cruz commercial that goes after Marco Rubio, rolling.</s>TED CRUZ: Securing our boarders and stopping illegal immigration is a matter of national security. That's why I fought so hard to defeat President Obama and the Republican Establishment's Gang of Eight amnesty plan. There are misguided plan would have given Obama the authority to admit Syrian refugees including ISIS terrorists. That's just wrong. When it comes to radical Islamic terrorism, I think we need to rediscover Ronald Reagan's strategy. We win, they lose. I'm Ted Cruz and I approve this message.</s>SMERCONISH: Beckel, react to that. The idea that the Cruz and Rubio are duping it out and frankly you'd think they are the two who should be most interested in expanding the tent to reach Hispanics.</s>BOB BECKEL, CNN COMMENTATOR: Yeah, exactly right. First of all, I just tell you so factually wrong. I mean that if Ronald Reagan was the last person that had amnesty in '86, 3 million were allowed to stay in this country. And -- So, but listen, what the (inaudible) -- I've listened to Pat Buchanan, he's old friend of mine and he and I bargained (ph) the demographics for years. Here's the difference. Two cycles ago, 80 percent of the voters in this country who voted for the presidency will wait. This time around, they reach 70 percent. And for the Republican Party to alienate the largest going demographics which is the Hispanics, where George Bush got 44 percent and the other two in the low 30, you can't win the presidency when you do that. And so, you know, you can -- and Ted Cruz can -- and be as tough as he wants to be and they could try to complete this with the ISIS which is (inaudible). And you could then say to them, "Well, are you going to -- you're going to have 31 to 32 percent." Rubio, I think could probably pick that number up and that's always what scares me. I mean that the Republicans finally wake up and realize that the Hispanics not a long a year crucial to their winning but they are very much aligned with the Republicans in certain things. Their religion, their family values, notary issues, but the Republican see they continually, for some reason, drive them away.</s>SMERCONISH: Guys, I've got to move on because we've gone three minutes without talking about Donald Trump. So we need to fix that. Peter Wehner, I want to talk about the bromance between Trump and Putin. Will you listen to what Trump said this week about Putin? Where will that take? You know, talking (ph) about Putin, I think that he is a strong leader, who is a powerful leader, he has represented his country at that -- so where the country is being represented and he actually got popularity within his country. They respect him as a leader.</s>SMERCONISH: How does that play? What's the net net among Republican voters? What message do they take? Is it one of mutual respect among the two? What do you think?</s>WEHNER: Well, I know the message it should take which is that Donald Tump is an embarrassment. He has pretentious (ph) forces, he is unbelievable. I mean Putin is a brutal dictator and he is giving praise to Trump and Trump in return is putting lavish praise on him. And he even went on to Blame America. This is a classic Blame America first answer that Trump gave yesterday when he said, "Well, Americans kill people too." There was a time when some of us remember we're conservatives who wanted the candidates, Republicans wanted the candidate would actually defend America and stand up to dictators. But this actually goes to a much deeper issue, which is Donald Trump is an incoherent candidate. There is no philosophy for him, he's all affect (ph), he is appealing to the dark impulses of the country Now, that happens from time to time you get figures like that in American politics. What's troubling to me in a lot of other people is that it's got a lot of resonance with a lot of Republicans but this kind of stuff has got stopping it. People self-proclaimed conservatives can hear Donald Trump talk that way about who -- and talk that way about America and not stand up to, were not criticized and -- then that's really shameful.</s>SMERCONISH: I think, E.D., it's a different take. What is it?</s>HILL: I disagree. I don't think that -- I think Trump was putting a difficult decision. I think he handles it. Things he believes, "And OK, wait," but if you're (inaudible) Putin, its trust but verify. You -- If you're -- You're not going to get anywhere if you're just in this, you know, battle. But I also think that the establishment just doesn't get it. It's not even what Trump said. As much as the fact that you feel he's got the guts, just stay -- you're yelling at the TV screen or what the people around you might thinking and are too politically appropriate to what he say.</s>SMERCONISH: See, I wonder if you're around to something that among the core Republican constituency, they regard Obama as "feckless," right?</s>HILL: Right.</s>SMERCONISH: And perhaps then, they look at Trump and Putin and say, "Well, they'd be equals and even...</s>HILL: It's not all matter (ph).</s>SMERCONISH: And even Putin showing to Donald some respect, by the way, in which he's commenting on him right now. Is that your point?</s>HILL: You know, who knows what Putin is doing? He is certainly out for himself and that's it. And I think that you have to look at it that way. I think that Reagan was very pragmatic in that way. Why go out of your way to make people more angry at America or to you? Don't. Just get through it and then watch them very closely.</s>SMERCONISH: Bob Beckel, on the data breach, this whole Sanders- Clinton DNC issue, my understanding is the front door was left open and Bernie Sanders' folks walked in. Look, it's a campaign. Should they not have done that? And what am I missing?</s>BECKEL: Well, I mean, your other issues, the contract that you sign with the DNC, any campaign does that to grab hold of voters. Listen, voters who go after him and if we get him, we get him if they're not get done. But you don't go after the other person's file. But there is something appropriate about Trump and Putin. Putin has gotten himself some popularity in Russia by being a Nationalist. A hardline Nationalist, mother Russia. And Trump reminds me of America first. That these are two guys or two piece in a pod. They now had a stirrup. Some very deep emotions among your certain segment of their countries. And -- So I'm not so sure that two of them are not -- I'm not suggesting that they are exactly alike but - I will put this way. Putin could build a draft course if he wanted to.</s>SMERCONISH: But my question is how does it play among Republicans, Bob? Do you think that they look at the two of them playing nice with one another and they actually like that because they think that Trump could be his equal where they believe Obama is not?</s>BECKEL: That -- I don't. I think Trump's reporters don't really care what he says. As long as he keeps saying about immigration and keep saying about making America great again and isolating the country are, that's what they're referring to. And I was out in Iowa and I'm telling you, I can't find the Trump organizer. I can't find Trump's supporters, but not organizers, but Cruz is rock solid in Iowa. So, it's got to be interesting.</s>SMERCONISH: E.D., 30 seconds left. Tonight, Americans will be at Star Wars, the democrats will be debating. Well, it's deliberate, right?</s>HILL: Who picks this night?</s>SMERCONISH: Well, I mean deliberately, right? To protect her?</s>HILL: I believe so.</s>SMERCONISH: And will it work?</s>HILL: Yes, it will. But I all think to anyone's really pain that much attention. There is not a big grief going on there.</s>SMERCONISH: I remember with no disrespect to Erie, Pennsylvania. I work for (inaudible) inspector. He would deliberately debate his opponents in Erie so that -- and it was less appealing to tune in. Sorry, Erie. To Erie, PA to watch the debate.</s>HILL: I don't know if there is football or hockey going on.</s>SMERCONISH: Exactly, yes. Penn State football.</s>HILL: Yeah.</s>SMERCONISH: E.D. Hill, thank you. Peter Wehner, thank you, Bob Beckel, as always, we appreciate your being here. Now, it's your turn. And we've already covered that on the ground. What do you think, tweet me @Smerconish and I'll read some at the end of the program. Coming up, at Putin side, former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin at the Vegas debate and ask what she think of this year's crop of candidates, what she said about Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina may surprise you. And former Homeland Security head, Tom Ridge, criticized both Obama and Trump this week as being unpresidential in dealing with ISIS. I will talk to Ridge about this and Trump's bromance with Vladimir Putin.