Wisconsin Votes in Recall Election
KING: A little less than two and a half hours before the polls close in Wisconsin. It's a recall election, voters deciding whether to keep their Republican governor, Scott Walker, or to replace him in midstream with the Democratic mayor of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett. It's a rematch of the race in 2010. Governor Walker won that election, obviously. As the recall plays out we can tell you this: we're already brewing the coffee. We've looked at our early exit polls. They tell us we have a very close race on the ground, and we'll be counting the votes, we think, late into the night. That's the one "Truth" we do know. Let's explore some of those data now in the exit polls. Erick Erickson is with us. He's the editor-in-chief, of course, of the conservative blog RedState.com and a CNN contributor; Cornell Belcher, the Democratic pollster for the Obama 2012 campaign. And Ron Brownstein, our senior political analyst and editorial director for "The National Journal." Gentlemen, I want to start with this one. This all started because Democrats got mad, labor unions got mad at Governor Walker's efforts to restrict collective bargaining rights. So you watch, who is voting today and what do they think on the issue? Well, let's look at this. Thirty-seven percent strongly approve of limiting collective bargaining rights, 37 percent of the electorate. Let's come over to the other extreme -- excuse me, my friend -- 38 percent. So Mr. Belcher, let me start with you, as someone who analyzes data. That tells me we're in for a long night. Does it tell you anything different?</s>CORNELL BELCHER, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER/CNN CONTRIBUTOR: No, that's absolutely right. It's tight. I mean, it looks like both sides. And you always say it comes down to turnout. But this is one where it's such a toss-up race that -- that turnout on the ground efforts really will make the decision. If labor and the progressives get their vote out, especially -- especially in the cities, we're in for a long night. But we could see this, you know, one point, less than one point, given the early exits.</s>KING: And Erick, this has been a polarizing debate in Wisconsin but has spilled out across the country. Other governors perhaps not as confrontational, but other governors have to deal with the issues when you see this electorate that has lived this issue for the past two years so evenly divided on this question: 13 percent somewhat, 10 percent somewhat disapprove. You see the small middle there. What does it tell you?</s>ERICK ERICKSON, EDITOR, REDSTATE.COM/CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: I think it tells me that governors do have to be careful how they proceed but also that maybe I think a whole lot of governors, Democrat and Republican alike, are going to thinking about some of these recall laws. Wisconsin has some of the looser recall laws in the country. But, you know, take John Kasich, for example, in Ohio the way he tried to do it didn't go over as well with voters in Ohio for the Republicans as what Scott Walker has already done. Remember, there have been a number of recalls so far in Wisconsin, and they haven't turned out very well for the side wanting the recalls. In Ohio, though, John Kasich's kind of blew up in his face.</s>KING: And Ron Brownstein, it's the oldest cliche in politics: it all depends on turnout on election day. Well, guess what? That cliche happens to be true when you get a close election. So let's look at some of this: 65 and older, older voters, they tend to be more Republican. Twenty-three percent of the electorate today, 65 and older, that is up from the 2010 gubernatorial election. Walker won then. So you would think that bodes well for his side now. But I just want to flip over to one more. "Are you or anyone in your household a union member?" Of course, that's a defining issue, labor rights. Yes at 32 percent. That's also up from 2010. So if you look at these numbers, and I can't dig deeper because we don't want to give away anything in the early waves of the exit polls. But it seems like both sides have done what they promised to do, which was turn out their vote.</s>RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It sounds like it. The union vote last time was 26 percent, and Barrett won 63 percent of those voters. If that is going to go all the way up to 32, presumably that 63, I think, will be a little higher this time. You know, that moves him much more in range. But the bottom line here is you have a state that has been divided almost exactly in half, that has faced the political equivalent of civil war for two years. And I still think the core question here is did all this have to be? Was there a path not taken? There were other states that got significant concessions from public employees without precipitating the kind of full-scale political conflict, all-consuming political conflict that we've seen in Wisconsin for the past two years.</s>KING: Cornell Belcher, you've been on this question. I've talked to a lot of Democrats out there in private. Mayor Barrett has been a good soldier. He has said it would be a distraction if President Obama came out, that it would nationalize the election. Only people in Wisconsin can vote in this election, so I'm not sure what the difference would be if you nationalized it. Why not go? If this is the defining challenge for your party right now, if this is the biggest election between now and November, why doesn't the leader of the party, the president of the United States, especially if turnout matters so much, African-American voters in Milwaukee and Madison, for example, why not?</s>BELCHER: Well, a couple things. One full disclosure. Mayor Mahlon Mitchell, who's running for lieutenant governor, is actually a client of mine, so full disclosure, I do have a horse in that race. The -- one thing, it's not the biggest thing. The president's fairly busy going around the country to battleground states, you know, making -- making his hard pitch right now. Wisconsin is -- Wisconsin is a battleground state, but quite frankly, I mean, we won Wisconsin by 13, 14 points last time around. I know a lot of people are trying to make this a bellwether of what's going to happen in November, but let me be clear: that's nonsense. What happens in a special recall election, where the incumbent can outspend the challenger by 8:1 right now has absolutely no bearing on what's going to happen in November with a presidential style election. I think that spin is just completely wrong.</s>KING: Erick, you agree with that?</s>ERICKSON: You know what? I do. The funny thing is, I always hear when the elections are going the way of the Democrats in these specials that, oh, it has great meaning or the same with the Republicans. I don't think special elections ever really have meaning. If so, the Democrats would have won in 2010, given how all the special elections and Republican seats went for the Democrats. The issue here, though, John, is this is a testing ground for Republican technology that they didn't have in 2010. They've got a live test this time to be able to tweak their turnout models for November, which helps them. But I don't think it's necessarily crucial to this election.</s>BROWNSTEIN: There is a "but," though, right? John, I think, as we talked about it, I mean, I think people will be watching to see if the key voting blocs in Wisconsin that moved away from the Democrats from '08 to 2010, stay away. And you mentioned older voters. There's also a really calamitous decline among blue-collar, non-college white voters in Democrats' experience in Wisconsin, from Obama's, I think, 52 percent in '08 to only 40 percent for Barrett in '10. If that number stays down in that range for Barrett, even with all this union strength, I think that is a warning sign, especially given how poorly Obama is showing in both national and swing-state polls among those voters today.</s>BELCHER: Well, let me jump in. It's OK. Pivot off one thing Erick said. What is the testing ground is not necessarily Republican technology but the money. I mean, you've got big money. You've got really rich people writing really huge checks. A lot of this money is coming from outside groups having absolutely nothing to do with the voters and the voice of Wisconsin voters. What this is, a testing ground, is to see how influential really rich people can have in our system.</s>ERICKSON: Oh, the rich people are giving to the Democratic cause a lot, as well.</s>KING: It's seven -- 7:1 right now Republican advantage, based on what we know so far. We'll watch and see if the late reports come in. We'll see if that advantage changes. Here's my question. You brought up the big money. Here's my -- whether you're a Democrat, whether you're a Republican, whether you're somebody who felt like writing a big check. Are you going to write another one after you see exit poll data like this? Remember, $70 million, maybe it will be $80 million in the end, a lot of that money coming in, in the final few weeks. Three percent of the voters said they decided today. Four percent said they decided in the last few days. Five percent said they decided in May. So there's your 12 percent. OK? Twelve percent. Eighty-eight percent, nearly nine in ten voters, said they decided before May. Erick, to you first. Does anybody who wrote a big check now, later on, going to send a big check here, send a big check there? Are they going to think, "Wait a minute"?</s>ERICKSON: Yes, I think they will largely, because look at what's happening. Eighty-eight percent of people made up their mind a long time ago. But it's going to be a neck-and-neck race. It's come down to turnout models and getting people out. And frankly, I think the Republicans might have overplayed their hand a little bit by saying in the past week, "Oh, it's in the bag. Don't worry about it. Walker is going to win. The polls have him over 50 percent." That breeds a lot of overconfidence. Democrats fall prey to this, as well, sometimes, and it may hurt the Republicans a little bit tonight.</s>KING: Ron, are those big donors going to say -- you know, are all these ads worth it? Are people being swayed? Or is this such a polarized electorate, a polarized issue that it's not really a good test case of whether you can move people?</s>BROWNSTEIN: No, I think -- I think, look, it's the paradox of our modern polarized era. You do have somewhere between 88 percent and 92 percent of the electorate, both in many states and certainly nationally, that is locked down long before they see a single ad. But even though you have a small percentage that's left, if the country and the state is divided almost 50/50, that marginal voter matters enormously. So in a strange way, it creates more demand for more effort, even though usually those last few percentage points of voters are the ones that are hardest to reach, that are paying the least attention. So the paradox is the more polarized we are, the more voters that are locked in, the more valuable moving those last few percentage points could be if you've got a closely divided country, as all signs are that we are heading toward in November.</s>KING: Switch maps. I want to show people just the map. And I want to bring up the 2010 governor's race. If you look at it right here, 52 percent for Walker, 47 percent for Tom Barrett. Again, this recall election is a rematch. And if you look at the state -- let me bring it up to the center, as you see, you see a lot of red mostly over the state. Well, we went through this a lot in the Republican primaries, where you'd see Rick Santorum winning a lot in the rural areas. Mitt Romney would win where the people are. That's how this state plays out in the general election environment. You have here Dane County. This is huge for Democrats. They have a huge population there. You see Mayor Barrett last time got nearly 70 percent. He was below 70, though. A lot of Democrats think he needs to be above 70 here. Dane County, that's Madison. And I want to come over here real quick. Milwaukee suburbs, you have Waukesha County here. Again, it's not 7 percent of the state population. Governor Walker wins that last time above 70 percent. Those are the two big counties we're watching for turnout. Cornell, is there anything else? Let's assume both sides do their job. And if I'm looking at Waukesha later, it's about 70 percent for the Republicans. I'm looking at Dane. It's about 70 percent for the Democrats. Where will it be settled?</s>BELCHER: Well, a little bit of reporting news here. You know, Democrats are saying that in Milwaukee it's like -- turnout is up like 114 percent. So they're actually outpacing what their expectations were. I think this is won in the margins. You know, the big sort of Democrat places and the big Republican places are going to do. But it is really about those -- those winning two or three more percentages in that red, you know, three or four percentages in those red areas. If a Democrat can do that, it bodes very well for Tom Barrett. He doesn't have to win those areas, but he has to do one or two points better in those red areas.</s>KING: Erick, what are you looking for?</s>ERICKSON: You know, I definitely would look for the counties you cited. I would look to see in Milwaukee and in Madison, how late the polls stay open after they close. There are already Democrats and Republicans yelling, "Vote for all arguments," after each other. How late are things going to go tonight, and will it descend into chaos? I mean, we've got the lawyers ready. And I think for the Republicans, please tell me that Scott Walker hired someone other than Norm Coleman's recall team.</s>KING: Ron Brownstein, that brings up the dreaded question. Could we have a recall recount?</s>BROWNSTEIN: I mean, look, Wisconsin has been living with basically a two-year campaign, you know, starting with protests. This is the second round of recalls, we should remind voters. And the governor isn't the only recall. Walker could win, and Republicans could lose control of the state senate. So how are we going to interpret tomorrow?</s>KING: We've got an interesting night ahead. Erick, Ron, Cornell, thanks for coming in tonight. I might have you guys strapped into the chairs. I'll have them bring you coffee, I promise. We're going to count this one late into the night. And with us will be Erin Burnett. "ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" is up at the top of the hour. Erin, you have a story tonight, though, about another important issue. A minister whose conviction could cost him his church. How so?</s>ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: That's right, his conviction. And John, this is a pretty amazing story. In Minnesota, a pastor came out and said he supports gay marriage, and he is now losing many in his congregation. It's a pretty powerful story of conviction and also the bias that is still very prevalent in certain places in this country. We have a special report on that, an "OUTFRONT" investigation. And also an interview with Senator Rand Paul, talking about aid and also talking about this -- what's going on in Wisconsin tonight, what he thinks will happen. And if a Walker victory would really mean, John, a mandate to go ahead and tackle Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security in Washington. So we have all that coming up, top of the hour. Plus, he weighs in on the former president, Bill Clinton, coming out and saying, "Well, let those tax cuts be extended for everyone." They're even talking about that, but that's going to be -- be a big issue. It's a drum beat of former presidents and obviously does not coincide with President Obama's point of view.</s>KING: Well, off-message is a simple term and fascinating. But the former president, you know, he usually thinks about what he's doing. So he's doing this for a reason.</s>BURNETT: That's right. He didn't just stumble into it.</s>KING: No, he didn't. No, he didn't. See you in a few minutes. Thank you. Still ahead here, Queen Elizabeth says thank you to the British people after a stunning four-day jubilee honoring her reign. Why she calls the experience humbling. Minivans and SUVs, make room. There's a new family car on the road. Look at that. I want one. It's a Ferrari.