U.S. and Russia Divided on Missile Defense
ANDRIA HALL, CNN ANCHOR: From Russia, the signing of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. President Vladimir Putin gave his approval of the treaty Saturday, paving the way for arms reductions. Although the Russian government has signed off on the agreement, Russian leaders say they will not ban nuclear testing until other nations with nuclear capabilities, such as the United States, approve the treaty. Monday, U.S. President Bill Clinton heads out on what could be his last official trip to Europe. After stops in Germany and Portugal, Mr. Clinton will hold his first summit with Russian President Putin. The White House says not to expect any breakthroughs.</s>SAMUEL BERGER, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: I do not expect any agreements to be reached on these issues. This is really the first time that President Clinton and President Putin will have the opportunity to discuss them together. And I think it's a good opportunity for us to explain our view of the threat and President Putin to talk about his concerns and see whether we can understand each other better.</s>HALL: Stephen Cohen is a professor of Russian studies and he joins us from our New York bureau with some insight on the upcoming summit. Sir, thank you for being with us on</s>WORLDVIEW. STEPHEN COHEN, PROFESSOR OF RUSSIAN STUDIES, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY: My pleasure.</s>HALL: This is President Clinton's first trip to Russia since Vladimir Putin was elected. What are likely to be Mr. Clinton's key concerns?</s>COHEN: Well, I think Clinton is going there in order to enhance his historical reputation. He's the only modern-day American president who has not signed a major arms control agreement. He's hoping to find a way in the months that remain to do that with the Russians. I don't think he can. In addition, he would probably like to help Vice President Gore in his presidential campaign. As you know, a few days ago, Governor Bush challenged Gore on these issues of nuclear security and Russia policy. So I think from Clinton's point of view it will not be a successful summit, and we heard as much just now in your report from the White House, where they said nothing -- nothing of great consequence will be agreed. I think that's probably right.</s>HALL: Vladimir Putin has just been elected into office. Bill Clinton is about to leave office. What are some of the most obvious benefits in your mind to -- in developing a relationship now between the two?</s>COHEN: There's really not much. I mean, I don't mean to be cynical about this, but Putin, of course, understands perfectly well, though the term does not exist in Russian, that Clinton is a lame-duck president, and moreover, he has a United States Senate that must approve any major nuclear agreements, which is opposed to Clinton. Therefore, Putin can confidently say to himself: Well, I'm happy to see President Clinton, it does me some good at home, it makes me look like a world leader, but I might as well wait with and do big business with either Vice President Gore or Governor Bush. And that I think that's probably the Russian -- the Russian thinking. However, bear in mind that there are fundamental disagreements between the United States and Russia, particularly over this notion of the United States building a space defense, missile defense system, which is prohibited by the 1972 ABM treaty. And the Russians are saying that if we do that, they will do bad things to us, like build more nuclear weapons. This is the crucial issue at the moment.</s>HALL: Will that issue likely come up between the two men?</s>COHEN: Yes. You know, Andria, it's interesting. We have a long history of summits. What we know is, is they are rituals. About half of them are theater, and the other half is private serious talk. The theatrical will be at the end the two men, Mr. Putin and Mr. Clinton, will hold a press conference, and they will tell us all the good happy news and announce some minor agreements. But the reality is that on the fundamental issues, including these problems of missile defense and nuclear reduction -- and by the way, Caspian oil, which used to belong to Russia and which the United States now wants -- about that there will be no -- there will be no agreement and probably no public statements other than discussions continue.</s>HALL: So you're either a realist or a cynic about this. I'm not sure which one.</s>COHEN: I -- I don't think it's cynical. I mean, I think it's a very crucial moment in the history of nuclear relations, but a complete asymmetry politically on the two sites.</s>HALL: Stephen Cohen, we will wait and see, and we thank you for that perspective here on</s>WORLDVIEW. COHEN: My pleasure.