Donald Trump Still Leads the National Poll
COOPER: The undercard debate has just ended. The main event is yet to come, several main themes there, Donald Trump and Ben Carson jockeying obviously for the lead. Marco Rubio seen by many as the next so-called establishment alternative. Ted Cruz as a potential surprise. Jeb Bush certainly struggling to re-launch yet again his campaign and new polling that could shed light on why he is struggling. Our chief national correspondent John King has a look by the numbers. He joins us now. So let's take a look at the national state of play going in to the debate tonight.</s>JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Anderson, you could say there's three, maybe four tiers in the Republican race. Let's start with the national average in the polling. This is all 14 candidates. It's a little confusing if you look at the numbers. So let me take it to just the top five. Carson and Trump at the top of the pack there around 23, 24 percent. Rubio and Cruz, you just mentioned that, you have to call them the second tier. They are at 12, 13 percent in the average of the national polls. This is Jeb Bush down here, a little above six percent. One tier, two tier, three tiers and then there is everybody else. That's a look at the national. I want to quickly just to show you this. If you look at Iowa, the state that votes first, and again let's focus just on the top five. It is pretty much the same, Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz and Jeb Bush. So Iowa essentially nearing a national polls. Iowa votes first in 82 days. What's interesting going into the debate tonight, the stakes are high. If you look at the next state, New Hampshire, Trump is still all alone. Let me just put up the top five again. Trump is still all alone. Carson, Rubio, Bush down here at the bottom of the pack. So you have tight national race Trump and Carson, a tight Iowa race, Trump and Carson. But New Hampshire, Trump all alone. So in the dynamic tonight, there has been a lot of focus on getting Carson, Trump, Anderson, still a huge, huge, huge factor in this race.</s>COOPER: And half or more of the Republican electorate says they haven't locked in on a choice yet. So all the candidates there is still an opportunity.</s>KING: There is an opportunity. But there is also some evidence that there are some candidates having a harder time than others getting Republican voters to listen. This is from the NBC - I mean, the McClatchy Marist poll that just came out the other day. The red is the more you hear the more you like. Look at this. It is off the chart, 67 percent of Republicans say the more they hear Ben Carson the more they like it, 58 percent the more they hear Marco Rubio the more they like him. Majority say more they hear Ted Cruz the more they like that. Only 44 percent say that about Donald Trump. If you are Jeb Bush in either compact, this is the problem. Only 32 percent of Republicans say the more they hear you and the more they like you. And come down this in. Nearly six in ten republicans say the more they hear Jeb Bush, the less they like him. Nearly half say the more they hear Donald Trump the less they like him. So if you're Carson, Rubio and Cruz you want to keep the trend going. If you are Trump or Bush, you need to turn it around. One other way to look at this, Anderson? Who would you definitely not support? Thirty-seven percent of Republicans say they would definitely not support Donald Trump, 32 percent they would definitely not support Jeb Bush. Talk about room to grow, only six percent say that about Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz and only three percent say they would never support Ben Carson. So these guys have a lot of room to grow. They guys have to turn the general dynamic. This just breaks it down, 43 percent of moderates say they would never support Trump, 42 percent of conservatives, 22 percent of the very conservatives. Again, though, 41 percent of Republicans who say they are very conservative, these are the kind of voters who show up for Republican primaries, very conservatives say they would never support Jeb Bush. He has to change that dynamic if there is going to be a comeback. Trump also needs to open some more minds if he wants to grow, Anderson.</s>COOPER: It is fascinating looking at the numbers there. John thank you very much. So back with our panel. We are also adding to it, Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney's chief strategist during the last campaign and author of "the last season: a father and son and lifetime of college football." Stuart, what are you expecting tonight on the main stage? I mean, last night at his rally, Donald Trump was very vocal when it came to Ben Carson's personal story, feeding into question that have been out there the past week or so about accuracy. Do you think he was test driving an attack for the debate or do you think he stays away from that tonight?</s>STUART STEVENS, FORMER ROMNEY PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Listen I wouldn't want to be in the business of guessing what Donald Trump is going to do. But if you're trying to win an election for the guy in a gambling business to attack the guy who saves people's lives, it seems pretty sketchy strategy to me. All these candidates need to talk about what they are going to do to be the president of the United States. I think if you are going to attack someone, or you are Jeb Bush, you need to attack Donald Trump. He is the biggest guy in the room. You get credit if you walk up to the biggest guy in the room and punch him. The problem I think he has, if he goes after Marco Rubio, it's sort of like getting in a wrestling match with your little brother. I just don't think it helps you at best.</s>COOPER: There's this report - you know, Stuart, if you were Jeb Bush, I mean, you look at those numbers, we just looked at John's report on the numbers, the more people hear of Jeb Bush the less they like him. If that's the case, then if you're Jeb Bush, I mean, not getting an opportunity to talk a lot in the last debate, maybe that wasn't such a bad thing.</s>STEVENS: No. Listen, you know, when things aren't working in a campaign, nothing works. Then they turn around and they start to work. You saw that with Hillary Clinton. These things can turn on a dime. I think that Jeb Bush could come back here. Personally, and listen, I was in a campaign where everybody in the world was giving us advice, some of it good, some of it not. But personally, I think that Jeb Bush needs to talk more about the future and less about Florida. He was a fantastic governor of Florida, but I don't think being a fantastic governor of Florida qualifies you to be the next president of the United States. So he needs to I think to offer really specific suggestions, advice, plans, of what he's going to do as president and just talk about that.</s>COOPER: I want to bring back in -- Stuart, stay with us. I also want to bring in Gloria Borger and Jeffrey and Nia-Malika Henderson and Ana Navarro. Do you expect, I mean, you know, some people said look, when debates get more into details Donald Trump, Ben Carson kind of fade back a little bit. We have seen that in past debates. Do you expect that to tonight or is this an opportunity with again just the eight people on the stage?</s>LORD: Coming with the trade proposal, I believe, a fairly detailed trade proposal. So maybe he is going to talk about that tonight. But I have already seen some details of it. So I imagine he could talk about that.</s>BORGER: You know, the economy is his terra firma. And if you look at polling, Republicans believe he is best able to handle the economy, Trump, not so much with Carson, and I think it's a higher hurdle for Dr. Carson, because he is less comfortable. We are talking about the economy. And I think if I were Carson, that is what I would be talking about or trying to talk about.</s>HENDERSON: His people have said this is the debate he's been waiting for. He wants to talk about the economy. He wants to talk about the issues. Even they said the same thing before the last debate, and that was about the economy, he didn't come off that credible in terms of detailed plans about his 10 percent or 15 percent tax plan. And so, we will have to see what he is going to do tonight. I think if you're Jeb Bush you probably feel good about what you've seen so far. But as he has always said he's the wonk. He wants to talk policy and go into detail.</s>NAVARRO: I think one of the things that we have seen so far is in the undercard debate we are seeing big contrast from what we saw moderator wise in the last debate. They have stuff to policy. They have stuff to fix the policy-economy questions, and you didn't see from the candidates on the stage all the whining and moaning that you heard in the last debate because they didn't have eye reason to. So I think you are seeing a different debate tonight than what we saw ten days ago.</s>COOPER: Stuart, I mean, I have no doubt that the moderators are going to go into this - I mean, very, you know, they are very smart and folks at FOX are very smart, they are going to go into it, wanting to contrast themselves to what happened at the CNBC debate and really, just stick to very detailed economic issues which is what everybody on that stage says they want to see as well.</s>NAVARRO: Maybe be able to cite the sources for the quotes they use?</s>STEVENS: The biggest number of all those numbers you put up on the screen before, I think is 26 or 27 percent. That is a number of people in the country that think the country is going in the right direction. That's the key that this entire election is being played in. It's a wrong track election now. And I thought Chris Christie very effectively played to that, contrasting with Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton right now is running in the democratic primary successfully as a third term of Barack Obama. We are yet to see if that is a successful case you can prosecute a year from now. For Republicans, I think you have to really take it back to the economic issues. And this is a great opportunity. People are going to vote based on the economy and in this election.</s>COOPER: Everybody here agrees.</s>BORGER: I agree. And if I were Marco Rubio who has had questions about his personal finances and how can you possibly balance a budget get you can't balance the checkbook? I would stick to the economy no matter what anybody was saying to me because I think that that's a line he has to cross and say look, I can handle the federal deficit. I can do that. And Jeb might attack him on that.</s>COOPER: Does anybody have to attack tonight? I mean, does -- in order to try to, you know, punch up, get their name out there? Does --?</s>LORD: Maybe Ted and Marco, keep going - I mean, I think what we are in the process of seeing is this race is coming down to four people and that would be Trump, Carson, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and then we will see how that goes from there. But I think we're slowly evolving into that.</s>COOPER: And certainly, I mean, Marco Rubio a lot more people have been talking about him of late. What do you think he has to do?</s>NAVARRO: I think he has, well first he has got high expectations because Marco has been very good in all three previous debates. He is good at debating, he is quick, he is witty, he is humorous, he can turn things around, he can gauge the audience's emotion, so I think he has to deliver another great debate. And yes, I expect people will be coming at him from all sides. He has been up to now very able to turn some of those arguments around and say hey, I'm your average Joe. I'm everyday America. Everyday America can relate to me and my debts and my finances. He does that very well. Now I do think there is somebody on the staining we haven't mentioned at all who does have to show a pulse who has to show an attack line and that's John Kasich. He is practically disappeared from the radar screen and our mouths.</s>HENDERSON: And he tried to do that at the last debate going after Donald Trump and Ben Carson.</s>NAVARRO: He had one very good moment on gay marriage in the first debate. He hasn't really had a stellar moment since then and needs it badly.</s>COOPER: We got to take a break. I want to thank everybody, Stuart as well. Thank you. Just ahead the leading Republican candidates have a chance tonight to widen their leads and win over voters undecided. What will evangelical Christians be looking for tonight to help them make up their minds? We'll look into that ahead.