Continuing Violence in Iraq; Is The U.S. Military Stretched Too Thin
WHITFIELD: Here's what's happening right "Now in the News." Osama bin Laden, dead or alive? Saudi intelligence sources dispute a French newspaper's report that the al Qaeda leader has died. More on this developing story straight ahead. Economic sanctions are apparently prompting North Korea to hasten its nuclear weapons program. A senior North Korean official says his wants to force the U.S. back to stalled bilateral talks. Strong storms have spawned flooding in parts of the Midwest. And in the deep south, the flooding has proved fatal. There were at least six storm-related deaths in Kentucky as well. Our top story, conflicting accounts on the health of Osama bin Laden. Here is what we know right now. A French newspaper is reporting the al Qaeda leader is dead. The article cites a confidential French intelligence report that claims bin Laden died from Typhoid in Pakistan. But Saudi intelligence sources tell CNN that bin Laden is alive and has been stricken with a waterborne illness. There is plenty of doubt on the credibility of the French report. Let's get to CNN national security adviser John Mclaughlin in Washington for his take on the latest development, and former acting director of the CIA. All right, John, well how do you verify this kind of rumor? Whether he's dead or alive or afflicted by Typhoid?</s>JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well I've been checking with sources all over Washington today and some overseas and you're quite right, there is universal skepticism about this report. That said, in my old business, you got a dozen reports a day that are very sensational and you have to run every one to ground. So the way you check this one out is the way I'm quite certain the U.S. government is checking it out and the French government. You go to the sources. The Saudis ought to be pretty authoritative on this, given that bin Laden's family is still in Saudi Arabia and you would assume they would get word somehow if he was seriously ill or if he had died.</s>WHITFIELD: Except has it been really clear whether his family members do have, you know, direct communications with him? If he is somewhere in the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan, are his family members in Saudi Arabia, his birthplace, still in contact with him?</s>MCLAUGHLIN: Well, we don't know that for sure. But I suspect some way a word would get back on something as serious as a death. I'm sure they don't have some sort of way to track his daily activities or what he's doing minute by minute, but on death, I would expect they would hear it. Now, that said, it takes a number, you know, in recent times we've had four audiotapes from him in the last year. And most of them have taken, we judge, about three weeks to get from wherever he is to broadcast. So he is on a long supply line now.</s>WHITFIELD: But apparently no new video images of him in two years.</s>MCLAUGHLIN: No we have not.</s>WHITFIELD: At the same time, would it seem plausible that bin Laden supporters wouldn't want the public to know of his death, if indeed he died? So that perhaps the power of al Qaeda would still be going strong? The network of al Qaeda would still be going strong even though the public, you know, wouldn't be aware about his death?</s>MCLAUGHLIN: Well there would be some people who would take that approach in al Qaeda for sure. But I think that American intelligence and Pakistani intelligence, those two in particular, would pick up some indication of his death, largely through supporters who would hear about it and would be lamenting his passage. I don't think that we would be in the dark very long if he were to die.</s>WHITFIELD: Interesting so --</s>MCLAUGHLIN: It would be important if he did die, of course, obviously. It would be a major, major blow to the movement in many ways.</s>WHITFIELD: Well in what way? Let's talk about how it would be a blow to the movement. Because would al Qaeda need Osama bin Laden to continue functioning the way it is, given that it's tentacles are reaching all across the globe. Is he really just a symbol? Does he really help direct each movement of al Qaeda?</s>MCLAUGHLIN: I don't think he does anymore, in the sense that he did direct very carefully the 9/11 attack. And I think we are past the point where what I would call a decapitation strike would take this movement down. You know, if the plotters who tried to kill Hitler in July of 1944 had succeeded, it probably would have ended World War II. It wouldn't end the terrorist movement to kill bin Laden, but here is what I think would happen, particularly if a successful strike or capture operation took down both bin Laden and Zawahiri, his deputy. It is important. That's an important point because Zawahiri, really, it runs the movement day to day, is sort of the brains of the movement. Bin Laden is the spiritual leader. Zawahiri is the operational CEO, if you will. If you took both of them out, I think it would be a fractious thing within the movement. You would have debates about what they are to do next, what are their next targets. Bin Laden is the one who, along with Zawahiri, focused them so intently on what is known as the far target, that is the United States. So, it would be important to take him out.</s>WHITFIELD: OK, and of course the questions to follow that would be, how would that impact the war on terror, particularly there in Afghanistan? John Mclaughlin, former acting director of the CIA and now an analyst for us, here at CNN. Thanks so much.</s>MCLAUGHLIN: Thanks very much.</s>WHITFIELD: And this program reminder, our two hour special investigation "In the Footsteps of bin Laden" airs at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, right here on CNN, the most trusted name in news. Well they have exceeded recruitment goals but U.S. military units in the field are still being stretched to the limit, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Army may need more help from outside its ranks. Here is Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr.</s>BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New fears that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may stretch the force more than anybody expected. In Iraq, the military now plans to keep about 145,000 U.S. troops in place until Spring, at least.</s>GEN. PETER PACE, CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: We're not comfortable right now with a reduction in the size of our force.</s>STARR: In Afghanistan, there are now no plans to bring home any of the 20,000 U.S. troops in the foreseeable future. With simultaneous wars, and no immediate prospect of cutting force levels, how long can the military keep it up?</s>TOM DONNELLY, CTR. FOR STRATEGIC AND INTL. STUDIES: These guys are running as hard as they can on the conveyor belt, simply to keep up with the pace of operations.</s>STARR: The Pentagon had hoped to bring 30,000 troops home from Iraq by the end of the year. On Capitol Hill, concern about the new reality.</s>REP DIANE WATSON (D), CALIFORNIA: We need to be sure that we have a game plan for Afghanistan, as we need an end game plan for Iraq. Our military needs further support.</s>STARR: The key problem? Army active duty and National Guard forces already are being sent back to the combat zone, sometimes within months of coming home. The solution? Either increase the size of the army, or call up the National Guard more often or send troops back to the frontline with even less time at home to rest and train for the next round of combat. But even if more troops are sent, usable equipment is in short supply, thousands of vehicles and weapons are worn out. The Army and National Guard say they urgently need $38 billion to fix or replace vehicles, weapons and gear. The Marine Corps says it needs $12 billion.</s>GENERAL PETER SCHOOMAKER, U.S. ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF: A lot of pressure placed on individuals, leaders, equipment, units and on the force.</s>WHITFIELD: That was Barbara Starr reporting. Pentagon sources tell CNN a new round of deployments is likely after the November elections. So how might this affect the National Guard? Christine Wormuth is with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and joins us now. Good to see you, Christine.</s>CHRISTINE WORMUTH, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTL. STUDIES: Thanks very much Fredricka.</s>WHITFIELD: Well are you seeing a mixed message being sent here, that the Army is saying that this year's recruiting goals have been met. Yet at the same time, the National Guard may be called upon because the Army is stretched too thin, because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?</s>WORMUTH: Well it is not so much a mixed message. The Army did have a good recruiting year and that's good news, considering what a tough year 2005 was. But essentially the problem is the recruiting targets that we're surpassing are for an Army that is fundamentally too small for the challenges we're facing and that's why we're going to have to, it looks like, perhaps go back to the National Guard a second time.</s>WHITFIELD: And so you underscore that the previous year's recruiting wasn't so strong. So you have to wonder did the Army perhaps lower its expectations and so that's why the recruitment goals are being met? Not necessarily because there is a greater interest for people to enlist.</s>WORMUTH: Well the army did a number of things. It did change some of its standards. It raised the age limit so you can join a little bit older. It has accepted people with slightly lower aptitude scales than it has in the past. But it also put forward a lot of recruiting initiatives, in terms of giving people bonuses. So it did a number of things to help it meet that recruiting target. It also put a lot more recruiters on the street to go out and talk to people.</s>WHITFIELD: And so while there may be more recruits then, at the same time you have to train folks. It doesn't necessarily mean that they are equipped and ready to be shot out of the cannon right away. That's why perhaps National Guardsmen and women are being called upon?</s>WORMUTH: That's definitely part of it. Part of it is that the active Army side right now is literally going overseas for a year, coming home for a year and then going back overseas for the year. Usually the active Army stays home for two years to train up and get ready. So to try and avoid putting even more pressure on the active Army, which is already going as fast as it can, they're going to need to look to the guard.</s>WHITFIELD: So how concerned are you about other potential conflicts? Yes, we've got Afghanistan, Iraq right now, but the U.S. is always being called upon in many different forms to help out militarily. How concerned are you that the U.S. military is able to spread out in a continued kind of pace it does?</s>WORMUTH: Well, I think it is fair to say that right now, it is going to be challenging to find a lot of rested, ready Army units if some other conflict breaks out overseas. Certainly, we're exercising all of our diplomatic efforts to try and make sure that doesn't happen. But if something surprising were to occur, we would have to make some tough choices about which theaters to focus on.</s>WHITFIELD: Are you optimistic?</s>WORMUTH: I see right now the future looking okay. I mean, I think we have a lot on our plate we need to focus on.</s>WHITFIELD: All right, Christine Wormuth, senior fellow with the Center for strategic and International Studies is joining us from Washington. Thanks so much.</s>WORMUTH: Thank you.</s>WHITFIELD: His trip to America captured world headlines. Put now, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is back in his homeland. We have the latest on how Venezuelans are reacting to his controversial speeches here in the U.S. That's coming up.</s>ERIC SCHURENBERG, MANAGING EDITOR, "MONEY": We chose Williamsburg, Virginia, as one of the best places to retire because it is such a unique place. It is one of the most historic cities in America, if not the most historic city. The whole place is a functioning, living museum and lots of the people who assume roles of 18th century British colonials are actually retirees. Williamsburg is a city of 11, 800 people. The tax burden is very low. The cost of housing is low. Sales tax is 5 percent. 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