Anger, Name- Calling at Fiery Republican Debate; Justice Scalia's Death Shifts Balance of Court
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. You are watching live pictures of the U.S. Supreme Court, where the sudden passing of Associate Justice Antonin Scalia has pushed the issue of judicial nominations to the forefront of this year's presidential race. Thank you for joining us. I'm Jim Sciutto, in today for Poppy Harlow. And in the hours since the nation learned that the Supreme Court legend died, a Supreme Court really, the conversation inside the beltway quickly changed from shock and condolences to cold, hard politics. On one side, the Republicans, they do not want President Obama to nominate a replacement for the justice they believe a new justice hand picked by the president will swing the court and future opinions to the left. That scenario would be fine with Democrats, fully aware Scalia's absence leaves four justices appointed by Republican presidents and four appointed by Democrats. The new addition to the court will tip that balance. Republicans believe if they win the presidency this year, they will name a Supreme Court justice next year. President Obama is in no hurry according to the White House. A spokesman saying don't expect any decision this week. He'll consider when his options -- when the Senate comes -- what his options are when the Senate comes back from recess. Our senior political reporter Manu Raju is with me now. Also, David Gergen, who has watched the process from the inside in his former role as adviser to four different American presidents. Manu, if I could begin with you, you know, the word today from the White House saying the president will not rush, to nominate someone, but the recess is really just a little more than a week away. The president has said that he will nominate someone this year. I just wonder, looking at this politics from where you sit, president nominating someone, is there any chance that he could get that nominee past the Senate, say, picking someone fairly middle of the road, or someone like Sri Srinivasan, a candidate who's been mentioned, who got unanimous approval, not unanimous, but he got bipartisan approval in the House? Is there an option for the president that could allow him to fill this vacancy?</s>MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: There is always a chance, Jim. I'm just not sure how much of a chance at this point. I mean, when you look at the Senate Republican conference, it's really divided into several camps. You have folks who are absolutely dead set against any nominee whatsoever. Those folks will not support anyone. But then you have some moderates who are uncertain whether or not they will get behind anyone. Then you have real spate of endangered blue state Republicans in tough races. And those folks, if they put -- they feel a lot of heat back home, and they put pressure on Senator McConnell to have a vote, and a nominee -- particularly a nominee who is considered within the mainstream, a consensus nominee, perhaps that could change the calculus. But, Jim, even if the handful of Republicans clamor for a vote, Democrats will need at least 14 Republican senators to break ranks and overcome a filibuster in order to move forward on a final up or down vote. That's only if Senator McConnell agrees to have a vote on the Senate floor and Judiciary Committee agrees to confirmation hearings and a vote. And that's no sure bet. A lot of hoops to jump through and you add to the presidential campaign season. It will be very difficult for the president to get anyone through.</s>SCIUTTO: Yes, that's a high bar. Fourteen votes, Mitch McConnell's approval in effect. Senate Judiciary Committee, that will be the key panel deciding the new high court justice. Describe how their lives change this weekend in the wake of the death. How much of the center of this political divide will they be at?</s>RAJU: Absolutely. Right in the heart of it. It was going to be a sleepy year, but now they're at the heart of this fight. Now, this committee, of course, is broken down between 11 Republicans and nine Democrats. I mean, if they were, this committee were actually to vote on a nominee, they would -- the Democrats would need to get at least two Republicans to break ranks in order to get the nominee advanced to the Senate floor. Now, two -- if they do move forward, two Republicans to look at on the committee, Jeff Flake, he's an Arizona Republican. He is someone who has broken ranks with a number of issues. Lindsey Graham, too, someone who has backed Sonia Sotomayor, someone who has been opened to the idea of advise and consent, and saying that the president should get his choice on nominees, he is not so far been forward -- going forward with a nominee to replace Scalia, but he's someone to watch going forward. Clearly, this is the key committee people to watch there, but again, Jim, that's if Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the committee decides that it's OK to move forward with confirmation hearings and a vote in his panel.</s>SCIUTTO: Another key member of that committee, certainly, presidential candidate, Ted Cruz. Does this play to his strengths in the primaries that are coming up to his base?</s>RAJU: Absolutely.</s>SCIUTTO: Strong stand on this.</s>RAJU: Absolutely. That's why he was the first out of the box really to say that there should not be a confirmation vote on the Senate floor. You heard him talk about it in last night's debate. He said earlier today, he said that, look, if there is a vote on the floor, I will filibuster the nominee and that essentially means that there needs to be 60 votes even if this were -- if McConnell decided to schedule a vote on the floor. But I would also note it was interesting last night's debate, Ted Cruz tried to turn the tables on -- sorry, Donald Trump tried to turn the tables on Ted Cruz and saying that, look, if it weren't for you and your desire to push John Roberts, then John Roberts would not be on the court. A little overstatement by Donald Trump, but clearly, John Roberts holding the individual mandate in Obamacare, something that Donald Trump sees as a vulnerability for Ted Cruz. So, certainly, this is playing out pretty intensely in the Republican debate, Jim.</s>SCIUTTO: Well, it's going to be great political story to cover as well. You're going to be on it. Manu Raju, thanks very much for joining us. The vacancy now in the Supreme Court loomed large in the Republican presidential debate Saturday, as soon as it happened, really. Among all the discord, there was one point of accord among the candidates. Their opposition to President Obama who they don't want nominating the next high court justice. Listen to the front-runner, Donald Trump.</s>DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, I can say this: if the president, if I were president now, I would certainly want to try and nominate a justice, and I'm sure that frankly -- I'm absolutely sure that President Obama will try and do it. I hope that our Senate is going to be able, Mitch and the entire group, is going to be able to do something about it in times of delay. We could have a Diane Sykes or you could have a Bill Pryor, we have some fantastic people, but this is a tremendous blow to conservatism. It's a tremendous blow frankly to our country.</s>DEBATE MODERATOR: So, just to be clear on this, Mr. Trump, you are OK with the president nominating somebody.</s>TRUMP: I think he is going to whether I'm OK or not. I think it's up to Mitch McConnell and everybody else to stop it. It's called delay, delay, delay.</s>SCIUTTO: Delay, delay, delay. That's clearly the Republican strategy there. Senior political analyst David Gergen joining me now. So, David Gergen, you advised just a handful of presidents. Say you're in the Obama White House right now, you just heard Manu Raju talking about the various hurdles this president will have to get over, particularly getting 14 votes just to get this past the filibuster. What is the president's strategy now? What can he do to possibly get through a nominee through all those hurdles?</s>DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, he has to set up a process of deliberation first to consider the alternatives, and there's a growing list of people who can look very, very attractive. I think he has to give this the weight it deserves and that is to spend time. It may take a month or two for the White House and for him personally to sort out which one would be the best nominee and then put that in motion. The whole thing will take, you no know, between now and the time he actually puts forward a nomination. It's probably going to take two or three months. But I think the objective here is to build up a case on the president's part of why the court shouldn't have a vacancy for that long a time. The president does not support it. There has been a couple of exceptions for that. For the most part, when Supreme Court vacancies occur in the last year for presidency, the president goes ahead and nominates and the Senate acts. There have been, you know, rare exceptions to that. So, the critical thing, though, Jim, is for him, for the president to find someone who will appeal to the country. Not going to win over the Republican base at this point. But if he can come up with a candidate that 60 or 70 percent of the country says that's a good and fair choice, I'm attracted to that person, that would really help and trying to turn public opinion against the Republicans. His strategy has got to be if I can't get my nominee, can I get the issue for the campaign, put the pressure on, maybe I'll break away some of those 14, maybe I won't. But --</s>GERGEN: We've got a better chance to win. What's that?</s>SCIUTTO: You're saying the strategy can be -- you're saying that the strategy can be, listen, I know I'm not going to get it through this Senate, but let me put someone up here if the Republicans say no, it will be a voting issue in the general for Democrats in the fall? I mean, are you saying the president would almost have to grant that he's not going to get this nominee through?</s>GERGEN: No, I'm sorry if I conveyed that. No, he ought to take the view that it's the responsibility of both branches of government to move quickly to fill a vacancy in the Supreme Court. That's what has been done in the past. It should be done again. There is no reason for delay. He's going to find the best qualified person to do it. And he's going to put it up there and fight for that person. And he's going to try to win. And he ought to go for the victory. If he doesn't get the victory, though, he wants the issue in the campaign. In other words, you either get the victory or you get the issue, one or the other. That's got to be the president's strategy so he can use it to add -- to -- let's say Hillary Clinton has got an enthusiasm gap and she's the nominee of the Democratic Party. What the president wants is something that's going to draw out a lot of voters to the polls because they think it's important to vote for the Democrats in order to make sure the Supreme Court doesn't remain and become more heavily conservative. That could be an issue that brings out voters, especially when you're trying to close the enthusiasm gap. So, go for the victory, but if you can't get it, get the issue.</s>SCIUTTO: To your point, David Gergen, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, she posted this on Facebook today, have a listen, I'm quoting here, "Senate Republicans took an oath just like Senate Democrats did. Abandoning the duties they swore to uphold would threaten both the Constitution and our democracy itself. It would also prove that all the Republican talk about loving the Constitution is just that, empty talk." As you have that, do you think that -- it sounds like it's to your point. It sets up a campaign issue here, if the president puts fort a reasonable, relatively middle of the road nominee and can't get it through, that's ammunition, you're saying, for the Democrats.</s>GERGEN: Well, I'm not sure the Constitution speaks to the question of something like this. I think the Constitution is rather silent on it, although I understand people are going to try to use some of the conservative arguments, Scalia argument what's called originalism, and that is go back to the intention of the Founders to figure out what the law ought to be today. But what I do think is the Republicans are going to come up with the alternative argument, and you heard it in the debate last night. And that is, wait a minute, this is a pivotal moment in American history. This election is going to be the most important one in years in which the presidency, the Senate of the United States, and the Supreme Court are all in play. All three branches are going to be deeply affected by this. Isn't it right for the people to make this decision about what direction the court should take? We can wait a few more months, cohort is not going to get -- you know, we're not going to lose anything by having a few more delays. After all, the legal system moves slowly anyway. So, let the people decide. That's going to be the Republican argument. What you and I don't know tonight, Jim, right here tonight, because we can't tell, is which way this is going to break with the public. You know, which side is the public going to come on these arguments. I'm not sure we know. It's -- you know, if the past is any guide, the country will be very polarized on this. But it's going to -- it could well-energized both Democrats and Republicans looking toward November, and have, if this could be a really epic battle over the course of the year over the nomination and then leading into November.</s>SCIUTTO: Listen, you make a point. Three branches of government, the Supreme Court, the Senate --</s>GERGEN: Three branches of government are in play.</s>SCIUTTO: -- and the White House. Remarkable year.</s>GERGEN: I can't remember, I don't know, you may be remember, I don't, an election which all three seemed so directly in play.</s>SCIUTTO: You know, it's a good challenge, David. We're going look into it. As always, great to have you, and your wisdom.</s>GERGEN: OK. Thanks, Jim. Good to see you.</s>SCIUTTO: Happy Valentine's Day. Coming up this hour, the day after, the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has a Supreme Court showdown brewing. So, what about the cases that are currently on the docket? We're going to break that down. And later on the trail, the Republicans clashed in South Carolina last night. But what do their performances mean for key races in the weeks to come? Plus, the Catholics and the cartel. Pope Francis is on the road in Mexico with a message of tough love. How the Holy Father plans to push his message of nonviolence. Stay with us.