Turkish Operation in Syria Threatens Civilians; Giuliani Associates Who Sought Dirt on Biden Arrested; U.K. and Irish Leaders See Pathway to Possible Deal
JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: -- hesitation the Turkish military crosses them all (ph) on day two of its operation against Syrian Kurds. How low can he go? Donald Trump hits the gutter, more than a year out from the presidential election. And the canary in the coal mine could be two-thirds of the bird population of North America, a stark warning about climate change, later this hour. Just two days into Turkey's two days into Turkey's military operation in Syria, and there seems little doubt that a humanitarian crisis is in the making. The International Rescue Committee says in the past 24 hours alone, more than 60,000 people have been forced to flee their homes, adding that number could ultimately rise to 300,000. Turkey claims it's killed more than 200 terrorists, but they're mostly Syrian Kurds, who were America's once-loyal allies in the fight against ISIS. After giving Turkey the green light for this military campaign, Donald Trump is now suggesting he wants to broker a ceasefire. But what appears to be the ultimate bait and switch, the U.S. tried to broker a ceasefire. The Kurds agreed to move their forces away from the border, and Turkey received access to crucial intelligence, intelligence which could have been used by Turkey in preparations of a target list ahead of this offensive. Our coverage begins with chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward in northern Syria.</s>CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We spent the day in the northern city of Tell Abyad, right on the border with Turkey. When we arrived, there had been shelling earlier that day. The town was more or less deserted. Shops were shuttered. The streets were empty. As we got closer to the border, we came across these small protests, less than 100 people who were gathering, insisting that they were going to walk right up to that border to show that they would not be cowed by this Turkish military operation. However, Kurdish fighting forces on the ground quickly told those people to dissipate, saying that it was not safe. There was a steady stream of artillery coming in, again, to various targets around the town. And then we also heard some outgoing rounds, with Kurdish forces firing back at the Turkish military. They were also setting fire to big piles of tires to try to create some kind of a coordinated smokescreen across the town. The people who we saw who were fleeing that town, much like people who we saw yesterday fleeing the town of Ras El-Ayn, saying essentially, they don't know where they are going. They don't know where is safe anymore in northern Syria. They don't know how big this operation is going to get, who, if anyone, will do anything to stop Turkey from further expanding, further pushing in. And the real fear is that, if this does turn into some kind of a ground incursion, things will only get bloodier, raising the risk of civilian casualties. Already, some 60,000 people displaced from their homes, and that number could easily climb to hundreds of thousands in the coming days. Clarissa Ward, CNN, northern Syria.</s>VAUSE: Joining us now from Washington is Soner Cagaptay. He is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of "Erdogan's Empire." Soner, thanks for coming in. It's been a while.</s>SONER CAGAPTAY, WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY: Pleasure.</s>VAUSE: It's great to speak with you. OK. At the U.N. on Thursday, the U.S. ambassador had a warning to Turkey, maybe some red lights, you could call it. The warning, though, was similar to the official White House statement a day earlier from Donald Trump. Here it is.</s>KELLY CRAFT, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: Failure to play by the rules, to protect vulnerable populations; failure to guarantee that ISIS cannot exploit these actions to reconstitute, will have consequences.</s>VAUSE: So two similar warnings in two days for Turkey from the Trump administration and, so far, on the ground in Syria, it seems the Turkish military is taking absolutely zero notice of what's coming from the White House. Is that a reflection of sort of just how impotent this president is when it comes to foreign policy?</s>CAGAPTAY: I think what we're seeing is the United States is actually throwing some support behind Turkey. There was a resolution today at the U.N. Security Council which not only Russia, but the U.S. vetoed. This is quite rare that both America and Russia will veto a resolution. So it shows maybe Turkish President Erdogan is leveraging both sides quite well. But it also shows that, in my view, that the relationship between Erdogan and Trump is working to Turkey's advantage. Although many other power centers in Washington do not necessarily favor Turkey at the moment, that Ankara can rely on the relationship, the personal rapport that Erdogan has built with Trump.</s>VAUSE: It's a relationship over a long period of time when Trump was a businessman and building Trump Towers in Istanbul. So yes, there is definitely a relationship there. What we've also seen is that, you know, all day long and into Thursday night, the U.S. president seemed to be tweeting out a stream of consciousness of, you know, options and what was happening with defeated ISIS caliphate, no U.S. troops, send troops back, financial sanctions on Turkey, maybe mediate between Turks and Kurds, long- defeated, 100 years of fighting. Just on and on and on. And the tweets seem to be sort of a genuine reflection of the president's thoughts, you know, veering from one extreme to the other with sort of some Trump delusion thrown in for good measure. But at the end of all the tweets, there was no determination of the best course of action. And here -- this is what that all sounds like from the president. Here he is.</s>DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We had a big victory. We left the area. I don't think the American people want to see us go back in with our military, go back into that area again. We won. We left the area. I don't think we want to go back in. Let's see what happens. We are going to possibly do something very, very tough with respect to sanctions and other financial things.</s>VAUSE: Possibly do something very, very tough to sanctions and financial things. It's not exactly the most detailed strategy of how to hold Ankara accountable. Is it?</s>CAGAPTAY: So it seems to me that there's already legislation on the Hill in the U.S. Congress to sanction Turkey for the incursion into Syria, and I think this is Trump trying to hold off the Hill. In other -- in other words, trying to prevent the worst of the sanctions. I think what the U.S. is trying to do is maybe trying to tell Turkey to wrap this up as soon as possible. I think America is respecting Turkey's right to react to what Ankara considers to be an existential threat by a sworn enemy, the Kurdish group over there. And at the same time, maybe Trump is trying to temper down some of the reactions from the Hill, because we saw today that there was legislation that's being prepared.</s>VAUSE: Yes. We also heard from the Turkish president, Erdogan. He is in no mood, it seems, for ultimatums. In fact, it seems he's in the business these days of issuing threats. Here he is.</s>RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): Hey, European Union, pull yourself together. I say it again. If you try to label this operation as an invasion, it's very simple. We will open the gates and send 3.6 million refugees your way.</s>VAUSE: The European Union, like the U.S. Congress, has been very critical of this military operation by Turkey into Syria. But why the hysteria coming from Erdogan over calling this is invasion? Technically, it is.</s>CAGAPTAY: I have been oftentimes quite critical of Turkish President Erdogan. After all, I wrote a book about him titled "The New Sultan." But in this case, I think Mr. Erdogan is right. This is quite a serious threat to Turkey coming from the Kurdish group in north of Syria. And this time Erdogan has quite broad support, not just from the half of the country that loves them and adores him but also from the other half of the country, including many citizens that disagree with him on other issues that are aligned behind him. And I think Erdogan is trying to temper down European criticism, because he knows that, ultimately, he holds the lever in terms of his bargaining power with the Europeans. Nearly 4 million refugees in Turkey. If he allowed the refugees to flow into Europe, creating a flow similar to what we saw in 2015, that would definitely fuel the rise of far-right parties on the continent. European governments know this. And I think, regardless of how much they want to criticize Erdogan, therefore, Ankara is telling them be careful in your criticism, because if you go too harsh, if you go sanctions, of course, Turkey has cards to play.</s>VAUSE: So with that in mind, not only did the military offensive essentially get a green light from the U.S. when they withdrew forces from the region. "The New York Times" adds this piece of reporting, as well. "The United States withdrew 50 to 100 troops from the border area in advance of the operation, and American military officials said that the United States was not providing assistance to either side. However" -- this is the point -- "the U.S. was providing intelligence to Turkey until Monday that may have helped it target Kurdish forces." That was part of an intelligence-sharing arrangement, I think. But not only is the U.S. leaving their allies on the field, on the battlefield, in the lead up to this operation, the U.S. could very well have been helping Turkey plan the attack on the Kurds. And yet, these are U.S. allies at the end of the day. So with friends like these --</s>CAGAPTAY: It's true, and as I said, I think Turkey is the ally in the relationship and YPG is the partner. And it seems to me that the green light that President Trump gave to Erdogan, or at least as Turkey sees it, was not necessarily embraced by parts of U.S. government bureaucracy, including the military, which has developed a relationship with YPG by having fought side by side with the YPG military against ISIS. So I wouldn't say this was Trump's most popular decision. And I don't think -- I think this all explains the pushback against Turkey that you're seeing in Washington. But I think in this regard, Turkey has a quite legitimate and serious security threat. I think the Turks never tolerated but understood that America had to work with YPG to defeat ISIS. But now that ISIS is defeated, they want that relationship over, and they want the United States to pick its ally over its partner in Syria.</s>VAUSE: Yes. It's a lesson in outsourcing your wars to someone else at the end of the day, I think. Soner, good to see you. Thank you.</s>CAGAPTAY: It's always a pleasure. Thank you.</s>VAUSE: Surprising new developments related to the Trump impeachment inquiry, with the arrests of two associates of Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump's personal attorney. These men are accused of funneling hundreds of thousands of dollars into U.S. politics, a violation of campaign finance laws. Video posted on social media shows the two suspects with Giuliani, but it's not clear when or where this meeting happened. Prosecutors allege they played a key role in helping Giuliani push Ukraine to try and find dirt on Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden.</s>GEOFFREY BERMAN, U.S. ATTORNEY FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK: They sought political influence, not only to advance their own financial interests, but to advance the political interests of at least one foreign official, a Ukrainian government official who sought the dismissal of the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.</s>VAUSE: The men were arrested Wednesday at Dulles Airport outside Washington with one-way tickets to Frankfurt in Germany. "The Wall Street Journal" reports they had lunch with Giuliani just hours earlier. Donald Trump, who's facing an impeachment probe from House Democrats, tried to distance himself from the men as he left the White House on Thursday.</s>TRUMP: I don't know them. I don't know about them. I don't know what they do. But I don't know. Maybe they were clients of Rudy. You'd have to ask Rudy. I just don't know.</s>VAUSE: Jessica Levinson is a professor of law at Loyola Law School. She is with us from Los Angeles this hour. Jessica, so Donald Trump, who by his own admission, pushed the Ukrainian president to get dirt on his political rival, Joe Biden, has no idea who these two guys are, the ones helping his personal lawyer gather dirt on Joe Biden in Ukraine. "You've got to ask Rudy." You know, somehow this seems familiar. Remember that moment, back on Air Force One when reporters asked the president what he knew about the hush-money payments to the adult film star Stormy Daniels? In case you don't, here it is.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you know about the $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels?</s>TRUMP: No. No. What else?</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Then why did Michael Cohen make this if there was no truth to her allegations?</s>TRUMP: Well, you'll have to ask Michael Cohen. Michael is my -- an attorney. And you'll have to ask Michael.</s>VAUSE: You've got to ask Rudy. You've got to ask Michael. Come on, what's the difference? I mean, let's -- let's take a great leap of faith here and assume the president is not being entirely truthful. What are the implications, if in fact, he does know who these two guys are?</s>JESSICA LEVINSON, PROFESSOR OF LAW, LOYOLA UNIVERSITY: Well, the implication, it's fascinating. I actually -- this morning in class, I actually just taught -- I said let's talk about campaign finance through three different events. The first is payments to Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels. Second is this issue of Russian interference with the 2016 election, what Mueller said about a thing of value. Third is the Ukraine. And now here we are, kind of already expanding on what I taught my students just a few hours ago. And so what are the implications if President Trump knew about activities that were violating campaign finance laws, which are federal election laws? If he facilitated or directed those payments to be made, which is again, a big if, then we're in the same situation that we were in when Michael Cohen said, in open court, you know Individual No. One, who we know is President Trump, directed me to make these payments. So again we're in a situation where the president of the United States would be facing significant legal exposure if his name was Mr. Trump, as opposed to President Trump.</s>VAUSE: So the unindicted coconspirator title would come back into life.</s>LEVINSON: Would rise yet again. Yes, exactly.</s>VAUSE: Yes. Or Individual One to his friends. You know, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, he seemed to have a message on Thursday for someone. Here he is.</s>BERMAN: We will not hesitate to investigate and prosecute those who engage in criminal conduct that draws into question the integrity of our political process, and I want to add that this investigation is continuing.</s>VAUSE: Why add that last part about the investigation continuing? Who's he trying to rattle?</s>LEVINSON: So, I think that he is trying to rattle either President Trump or, frankly, probably more likely, any members of the administration who would try to say to these individuals don't cooperate, don't provide any information, there may be a pardon at the end of the day for you. Again, we're speculating. We don't know. But we know that President Trump has certainly pardoned people who have engaged in very questionable behavior. So I think what he's trying to telegraph is don't tamper with the people who were just indicted. Don't tamper with any evidence. We're not done here. This continues. And it's unfortunate that we have to say that, but if you look as, you know, matter of analogy to what's happening for the impeachment inquiry, we have the president and the administration telling people, don't show up, don't comply. And what the U.S. attorney here is saying is, we're going to come after you. This is not over.</s>VAUSE: Yes, there but for a legal guidance with the Office of Legal Counsel. OK. The Ukraine president, he held a marathon 14-hour-long news conference on Thursday in front of more than 300 reporters, telling them he'd not been blackmailed by Donald. He didn't even know that military aid was on hold when he was having that phone conversation with Donald Trump. Here's a little more from Zelensky.</s>VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY, PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE: They say, gave me nothing, gave nothing, any details of Burisma, and any details. I didn't get any details about involved to your elections, previous elections. So I didn't get.</s>VAUSE: Which Donald Trump tweeted was the ultimate proof of his innocence. Just in terms of the law, though, if someone is the victim of extortion and the person responsible for the extortion is still in a position to threaten the victim, how reliable is their testimony?</s>LEVINSON: Yes, well, I think you know the answer to that. So, I mean, to the extent that he is still subject to extortion in the sense that there's still, of course, aid on the line, you know, he doesn't sound particularly credible. I would also say, look, with respect to the idea that he's now saying, look, I would never be held hostage, he's trying to convey that he's a strong president, that we aren't at the mercy of the United States. He's trying not to look like somebody who was, frankly, you know, potentially duped by the president. But what we know from the text messages, what we know from the parts of the whistleblower complaint that have already come out, is that everybody was aware that there was military aid for the Ukraine on the table. People were aware that the Ukraine -- that members of the Ukrainian government wanted a meeting in the White House. And that it looked like those were -- and again, looked like not proven -- that those were contingent upon President Trump getting what the text messages said was a deliverable, meaning opposition research, a thing of value that was helpful for him in his reelection. So look, when President Zelensky says, no, there was nothing wrong, I mean, that in no way exonerates President Trump. This is not somebody who we can look to for credible exoneration when it comes to, again, what are we talking about? Bribery, extortion, campaign finance corrupt practices.</s>VAUSE: That was kind of my hunch. Seventeen Watergate special prosecutors have signed an op-ed in "The Washington Post." The headline reads, "We Investigated the Watergate Scandal. We Believe Trump Should be Impeached." They lay out their case with the evidence and why. But at a campaign rally in Minnesota, the president kept hammering the same blatant lie, that it's all about the Democrats trying to overturn the 2016 election. This is when Trump lashed out at the whistleblower for the Ukraine call. He went after the son of Joe Biden, Hunter. And then came a very low personal attack on the former vice president. Here it is.</s>TRUMP: And your father was never considered smart. He was never considered a good senator. He was only a good vice president, because he understood how to kiss Barack Obama's</s>VAUSE: The president of the United States, ladies and gentlemen. Donald Trump can go this low this quickly, where will he be, what, 389 days away when we come to election day?</s>LEVINSON: Well, I mean, I think that we see that there's this kind of exponential ramp up in the tweeting, in the rhetoric in the campaign rallies, which frankly, not many of us thought the rhetoric could be ramped up or turned up that much, even from this president of the United States. I think it's really interesting what he said in that. I mean, he referenced that letter a little bit. I read the letter. I read the footnotes to the letter. I read the cases citing in the footnote. and I will say, again, and what letter are we are talking about. It's President Trump's lawyer, the White House counsel, sending a letter to Congress saying, we're not going to comply with your impeachment investigation. And what we have is, apparently, the president of the United States thinking an impeachment inquiry is like a dinner invitation, where you can just take it or leave it. And what we have is a letter that is filled, frankly, with legal nonsense and the kind of nonsense that you heard from the rally, where he's saying, you're just trying to overturn the election; where there's a fundamental misunderstanding with why impeachment is part of the Constitution, and why the Constitution specifically says Congress, this is incumbent upon you. This is the way that we punish a duly-elected president who's behaving badly. It's not trying to overturn the election. It's trying to hold our government together.</s>VAUSE: Yes. And also, you know, the whole concept of co-equal branches of government seems to be something which the president does not quite grasp in its fullest. Jessica, it's great to see you. Thank you.</s>LEVINSON: Thank you.</s>VAUSE: We'll take a short break. When we come back, time is running out for the E.U. and the U.K. to agree on Brexit, but now maybe a glimmer of hope, just the slightest tinge. Details on a crucial meeting between the Irish and British prime ministers. Also, Japan scrambling to be ready as a powerful storm approaches. Ahead, the impact it's already having on daily life, and also, at major sporting events across the country.