This Week in Politics: A Discussion of First Official Presidential Contest, Monday's Iowa Caucuses
GENE RANDALL, CNN ANCHOR: And so it begins In Iowa Monday night, The first official presidential contests of the primary season, Democratic and Republican Party precinct caucuses. It is a frenzied weekend in the Hawkeye State.</s>RANDALL (voice-over): For Texas Governor George W. Bush, it is not so much a question of winning -- the polls show he will he easily top the Republican presidential field in Iowa -- it is how big he wins. His message to supporters there: Don't be complacent.</s>GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for your support. And I'm working hard, I'm working hard to earn your support. And make sure you bring somebody with you when you go.</s>RANDALL: Steve's Forbes is running a distant second to Bush in Iowa. Given the time and money he has spent there, a poor showing Monday night could, in the eyes of money, all but put him out of the GOP race. The major Republican flashpoint this weekend, dueling TV and radio attack ads running in New Hampshire. The issue is taxes. Bush hits Senator John McCain: (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, BUSH CAMPAIGN AD) BUSH: And I darn sure don't agreed with, you know, saying that you're going to $40 billion of employer-related benefits and have the people pay tax on them.</s>RANDALL: And McCain fires back. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, MCCAIN CAMPAIGN AD) SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I guess it was bound to happen. Now my opponent has started the political attacks, after promising he wouldn't. Mr. Bush's attacks are wrong. My plan cuts taxes, secures Social Security and pays down the debt.</s>RANDALL: Having given the Iowa caucuses a pass, McCain is focused on the February 1 New Hampshire primary, where taxes might be considered a four-letter word. On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore should win easily in Iowa. His First real challenge from Bill Bradley will come in New Hampshire. Bradley, meanwhile, had to use more valuable campaign this week talking about his latest episodes of an irregular heartbeat.</s>BILL BRADLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It has absolutely no effect on my ability to dispose of the responsibilities of the job, if I were successful. So you should feel reassured on that front, and I hope if we have a little perspective on this, that we will see that this is really something that's a nuisance for me and shouldn't be a concern for you.</s>RANDALL: We'll talk about that Democratic race in our second segment. But first, we focus on the Republicans in Iowa, as we welcome back to our program Steve Forbes campaign manager Ken Blackwell. He is in Des Moines. And in Austin, Texas, Bush campaign spokesman, Ari Fleischer. Mr. Fleischer, with a candidate who is so far ahead, how do you fight voter apathy in Iowa? Your candidate has expressed some concerns himself.</s>ARI FLEISCHER, BUSH NATIONAL SPOKESMAN: That's right, Gene, that is a concern, and it's called complacency. And all you can do is go out, work as hard as you can this weekend and make all your calls to get out the vote. Governor Bush is dedicating all his time an energy to it, and you have to hope that the weather is good on Monday night and that we have a heavy turnout.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Blackwell, in your view, what will it take in Iowa to put the breaks on the Bush campaign?</s>KEN BLACKWELL, FORBES CAMPAIGN SPOKESMAN: Well, you know, the bar has been set for the governor. If you take a look at the straw poll and you look at the moderate vote that came out for Dole, Alexander and Bush, it totalled up to 51 percent. The governor is uncontested for the moderate vote and so he should come out of here with 51 percent. Anything under 51 percent, I think, is going to put him in a tenuous situation in New Hampshire, because there he will have competition for the moderate vote and if we in fact get north of 20, 21 percent, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 percent, we in fact will be the conservative alternative in New Hampshire and we will have met our objective in Iowa.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fleischer, is there a cutting-edge issue that will motivate your supporters to turn out at the caucuses Monday night?</s>FLEISCHER: Let me address something that Ken just said, because that's called setting the bar, and it's a good thing this isn't -- he doesn't analyze baseball, because according to that logic, Mark McGwire would doing no good if he didn't 100 homeruns. The winning record in Iowa is only 38 percent, that's the record first-place finish and we would like to hit that. The cutting issue is who is best able to put an end to the Clinton-Gore years and move our nation forward in a positive and inclusive manner, who can unite our party, who has a record as a tax- cutting governor, somebody who has a record of working to make education stronger for all our children and who can save Social Security. Those are the positive issues that Governor Bush is running on.</s>RANDALL: Let's talk about the issue of abortion, which sometimes...</s>BLACKWELL: Gene.</s>RANDALL: Yes, go ahead, Mr. Blackwell.</s>BLACKWELL: Let me just respond to that on the cutting issue. I really do think that education is going to be a cutting issue and the governor has served up his record as something that signals his ability to lead the nation in this area. Well, if we take a hard look at his record, SAT scores in Texas have dropped in Texas, where Texas is now 46, when he took over they were 40th. That's moving in the wrong direction and I think that, that is going to be the sort of exposure that the governor is going to become vulnerable as a consequence of.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fleischer?</s>FLEISCHER: Gene, one of the reasons that Governor Bush was re- elected with 70 percent of the vote and a strong record in Texas is because test scores have gone up under his watch. He's created a new program that gets back to basics in education, provides more local control and really focuses on an emphasis on reading, so every child can read. He has a record as a education leader that he's proud of and is a record that he would seek to bring to the presidency.</s>RANDALL: Let's talk about the abortion issue, Mr. Fleischer. There seems to be some confusion over exactly where Governor Bush stands. Let's listen to what he says today on "</s>EVANS, NOVAK, HUNT & SHIELDS." FLEISCHER: Sure. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "EVANS, NOVAK, HUNT & SHIELDS") GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the goal of our society ought to be to value life. This is a lofty goal, it's an important goal and the Republicans must decide which of us can best lead toward an understanding of a culture that respects life.</s>RANDALL: The governor has criticized the Roe v. Wade decision, which legalized abortion on demand, but he has not called outright for its overthrow. Why is that, Mr. Fleischer, an inconsistency there?</s>FLEISCHER: Gene,the governor thinks that, that was an overreach, he thinks those are decisions that should have been left in the hands of state legislatures, and as you know, he supports a constitutional amendment on this question, although it does not appear that that's going to be happening any time soon. The governor has a very strong pro-life record and also -- here is what the governor was referring to. He's able to bring people together and get things done, even on a issue like this. He has led the way in Texas in reducing the number of abortions, he has signed parental notification legislation. He's also signed legislation that has made adoption easier in Texas, which has led to a large increase in the number of adoptions here. He's able to bring Democrats, Republicans, he's bringing -- able to bring people together and achieve results that reduce the number of abortions. That's very important.</s>BLACKWELL: Gene...</s>RANDALL: Mr. Blackwell, do you see a target of opportunity on that abortion issue?</s>BLACKWELL: Well, look, Steve has said that the governor is a pacifist on the life issue. The reality is, is what I just heard the governor said sound more like a press release than a pledge. Steve has been very, very clear and very, very consistent. He is for appointing pro-life justices. He is for appointing and selecting a pro-life running mate and he is a strong advocate for protecting and promoting the pro-life, Reagan pro-life plank in the platform, the Republican platform. Governor Bush would rather hedge than pledge on a lot of these issues and I think that, that is going to be a telling difference.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fleischer?</s>FLEISCHER: Well, I just couldn't disagree more with that approach that Ken is taking here. The governor has laid out his position, made it crystal clear on where he stands on the life issues, and I think that's going to be manifested in the results in Iowa. If the governor's position wasn't so well received, why does it appear that Governor Bush is going to come in first place in Iowa?</s>RANDALL: Mr. Blackwell, let's look at a poll from CNN/"Time" magazine, numbers in New Hampshire. McCain 39 percent, Bush 37 percent, Forbes 10 percent. Now, if you combine that with what the polls show in Iowa, where does Steve Forbes stand going into New Hampshire?</s>BLACKWELL: Well, I think, you know, you go back and you take a little history, in December of 1995, Pat Buchanan was at 5 percent in the polls in New Hampshire. By the time he got to the New Hampshire primary, he won it. The reality is that we are going to get a good bounce out of here, because we are going to be the conservative alternative to two moderate candidates that will split the moderate vote in New Hampshire. We are going to be well positioned, and I can tell you right now Monday is the first time that the people have an opportunity to speak. We've been watching polls and we've been listening to media pundits, but the people have an opportunity to speak on Monday and we think they will speak loudly and will do just fine coming out as the conservative alternative, you know, to moderate mush.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fleischer...</s>FLEISCHER: Hey, Ken, let me ask you this. If Monday is the first time the people will speak, why are you predicting Steve Forbes will come in second place?</s>RANDALL: Let me ask something, Mr. Fleischer, how many viable candidates do you see coming out of Iowa on Monday?</s>FLEISCHER: You know, Gene, the problem I have with a question like that is I think those things -- those judgments are best left to the voters. I work in this business, but I'm employed and Governor Bush is employed by the people who vote. I'm uncomfortable with that. I think those are judgments that the voters have to make.</s>RANDALL: And, gentlemen, thank you very much. Mr. Fleischer, Mr. Blackwell, we will talk to you I'm sure on Monday, if not before then.</s>BLACKWELL: See you soon.</s>FLEISCHER: Thank you, Gene.</s>RANDALL: With me now from Des Moines, Mike Glover of the Associated Press, and Susan Page of "USA Today." Welcome to both of you. Susan, during an appearance in Muscatine, Iowa by Bill Bradley, the first question from the audience afterwards was, can you assure about your heart condition? Now, is this going to hurt him Monday night?</s>SUSAN PAGE, "USA TODAY": You know, this is not the message that a candidate who's trying to come from behind wants to have out there in the last couple of days. The front page of "The Des Moines Register," the largest paper in the state, this morning had a headline, "Bradley Says His Heart is OK," with a big picture of him sitting on a hotel bed. This has really obscured Bradley's efforts to get out a message on health care and some other subjects, and I think it is -- the timing is just terrible for him.</s>RANDALL: Meanwhile, Mike, there was already a momentum problem for Bradley, wasn't there?</s>MIKE GLOVER, ASSOCIATED PRESS: There was. This is an establishment state and Vice President Gore had been doing pretty well in the state, and the organizational effort was just starting to kick in. So this happened at a bad time for him, and Susan is right, it did knock him off message. There could be an upside to this however, where you can find a silver lining to this dark cloud. He's had a bad week. Maybe the expectations got lowered for him just a little bit because his week was so bad. We all expect Vice President Gore to win this. We want to see how close Senator Bradley can come to him. This might lower his expectations just a tad.</s>RANDALL: Susan, is it my memory, or was it not too long ago that people were talking about a Gore campaign on the defensive? What's happened?</s>PAGE: Well, I think he's really gotten back on the offense, and I think the key was that debate in Des Moines on December 18, where he really went after Bradley on his vote on a supplemental amendment for additional flood relief aid in 1993. Bradley did not respond effectively in the debate. It took him a long time to kind of take this issue serisouly. Right now, he has and ad on the air with Sen. Bob Kerry from neighboring Nebraska, defending Bradley on that vote, the same vote that Kerry cast. But I think it raised questions in Iowans minds. Gore has a lot of institutional advantages here, and that's particularly important in this peculiar system of caucuses, where it's that you just have to go and vote, you have to go and spend an evening with your neighbors talking about politics. Some people may not think like that sounds like the most appealing way to spend a winter night.</s>RANDALL: I can't imagine why. Mike, you know the state well. Compare those organizations, Bradley and Gore.</s>GLOVER: There's no question that Gore has the superior organization -- he has a larger staff, he has a more experienced staff, he has more people on staff who have done this before. But more to the point, and Susan mentioned this earlier, and she's right on point, he has the institution natural strengths of the elements of the Democratic Party in his corner -- read that labor. If you go over to the Iowa Federation of Labor Offices, you see they're doing a massive turnout operation over there, thousands and thousands of phone calls, thousands and thousands of mailings, plus some union workers to knock on doors and provide carpools to get people out on caucus night. So there's no question that Senator Bradley has a pretty good field organization out there, but not one that can match Vice President Gore, and that's what's happening at this phase of the campaign. We've had the jousting. We've had the back and forth. It's now time to put up or shut up and put the organizational meat in place and deliver Monday night.</s>RANDALL: Susan, if the polls are right, and the vice president is well over 20 points ahead of Bill Bradley, is there any way that would not hurt Bradley in New Hampshire?</s>PAGE: Well, you know, the</s>RANDALL: But, Susan and Mike, is this a special case in Iowa this year for someone like Steve Forbes -- Mike?</s>GLOVER: Well, it is kind of a special case for something like Steve Force, because Steve Forbes competing for a slice of the electorate that's pretty important in this state, maybe more important than other states, and that's social conservatism. He has an opportunity to spend a lot of his own money, put together a pretty darned good field organization of his own and come in -- most of the polls show him ranking second to Texas Governor George W. Bush. That could give him a little momentum coming out of Iowa, but I have to point out that he's hot showing very well in polls in other parts of the country.</s>RANDALL: Yes, and it's a very distant second that Forbes is riding in Iowa. Susan Page, doesn't he really have to prove something there?</s>PAGE: Well, I think his hope is that he beats up a little bit on George Bush and then that John McCain is able to beat up on George Bush a little more in New Hampshire, and then when you got to the subsequent contest, Republicans may be looking for an alternative to George Bush, and then Steve Forbes could step in. You know, there's someplace else in the Republican race where the Iowa results may make a difference. That's in this lower tier of candidates, where you've got Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer and Orrin Hatch, and there's some thought that whoever comes in the first among that group, the others may be out of this contest pretty quick.</s>RANDALL: Susan Page and Mike Glover, thanks very much. I miss Iowa. I don't miss the weather.