Gingrich Soaring in the South; Al Qaeda Prison Break; "Mother Robin" CNN Hero of the Year
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Newt Gingrich surging in the South, opening commanding leads in Florida and South Carolina in a new poll. But it's a much different story in those states when it's Newt against Obama.</s>ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: And more than a dozen suspected al Qaeda terrorists tunneling their way to freedom from a prison in south Yemen. We'll tell you about it on this AMERICAN MORNING.</s>ROMANS: Good morning, everyone. It's Monday, December 12. Very glad to have Ali Velshi back in the saddle.</s>VELSHI: Glad to be back. It's 12-12-11.</s>ROMANS: So, that means what?</s>VELSHI: It means that something serious happens on 12-12-12. So, you got a year to get your stuff in order.</s>ROMANS: You got the whole election --</s>VELSHI: I'm not particularly suspicious.</s>ROMANS: There's a lot to do before we worry about the end of the world. Up first this hour, Newt Gingrich soaring in the South. But can he stand toe-to-toe with the president? A new NBC News/Marist poll released yesterday shows the former House speaker opening up double digit leads over Mitt Romney in two key Southern states, South Carolina and Florida. But the outcome changes dramatically for both Republicans in those states when the opponent is the president. Joe Johns is joining us live from CNN Center in Atlanta this morning. Joe, good morning. Gingrich and Romney took the brunt of the attacks at the debate, the frontrunners. What is the president saying about these two potential opponents?</s>JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, there's an old rule in politics that you never interfere when you're opponent is doing harm to himself. And right now, quite frankly, the Republicans certainly it's really rough for them out there. Just this morning, we woke up to new attacks by Mitt Romney on Newt Gingrich about Newt Gingrich's relationship with House Democratic leader and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. So, the president of the United States right now is trying to stand clear of all of that, and if you watch this excerpt from this interview with "60 Minutes," you really see the president practicing the art of saying nothing and trying to be complimentary. Listen.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What do you make of this surge by former Speaker Gingrich?</s>BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He's somebody who's been around a long time. And is good on TV, is good in debates. And -- but, you know, Mitt Romney has shown himself to be somebody who's good at politics as well. He's had a lot of practice at it. You know, I think that they will be going at it for a while. When the Republican Party has decided who its nominee is going to be, then we'll have plenty of time to worry about it.</s>JOHNS: The president of the United States really weighing in there on Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Absolutely didn't hear quite anything about what he really thinks of these candidates, guys.</s>VELSHI: All right. Joe, thanks very much. And as Joe said, he was -- he did sort of talk about them. He said they have had a lot of experience and that sort of thing. That's part of the discussion. If anyone doubted whether Newt Gingrich was a front-runner in the Republican race, those doubts were erased this weekend in the Iowa debate after the candidates took turns ganging up on the former House speaker. Let's bring in CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein. He's the editorial director of "The National Journal" and with us live from Washington. Let's talk about what Gingrich did, Ron. He really went on the attack with Mitt Romney really pressing the point that he say career politician. Listen to this.</s>NEWT GINGRICH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's be candid. The only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994.</s>MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Wait a second. Now, wait a second. That's -- now wait a second.</s>VELSHI: What do you think, Ron? Did he do any damage there? That was the gotcha moment of the debate if there was one.</s>ROIN BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: First of all, welcome back, Ali. I thought he was -- Newt Gingrich delivered a very deft performance. He was effective on the offense. And as you say, that was probably the most -- single most memorable line of the debate. And more importantly, he was very effective on the defense. He avoided sounding defensive and didn't sound cavalier either. I mean, he dealt with a variety of issues, including his personal life, I thought, in a very measured way. And it is a reminder that, you know, he is not -- he does not seem as prone in this campaign so far toward the tendency to self destruction, which was certainly a problem for him as speaker of the House.</s>ROMANS: And, Ron, you know, so many people have talked about this, this guy has been married three times. He's now converted to Catholicism, right? How is he appealing to -- and his performance this weekend, how is he appealing to the evangelicals who are going to be so critical in the Midwest? He said I have asked for forgiveness. I am a 68-year- old grandfather. And focus on me now.</s>BROWNSTEIN: That was I thought his most effective single moment of the debate. First of all, he is appealing to evangelicals. I mean, part of what's happening in those polls you see in South Carolina and Florida as well as in Iowa is those voters are consolidating around Gingrich. Now, part of this is a demand side phenomenon. They need someone to consolidate around. They don't like Romney. They showed that in 2008. He won only 20 percent of the combined vote of evangelicals in those primaries. And, you know, it's closing time. They need a candidate. And they have cycled through the alternatives. Gingrich, to some extent, is the beneficiary of being the last person standing. But there was also I think this argument, which was I thought quite effective, not only on the personal issue but more broadly on what will be I think even more important attacks on him over the leadership style he displayed in the House. He basically said, look, that person isn't the one on the stage anymore. I am a different person. I'm 68 years old. And you'll have to judge who I am now. That I think could be a pretty effective argument for him. But he's got a lot more fire coming, I think, not only on the personal side, but more so on the leadership side, because some of the people who are most critical of him are the Republicans who served with him in the House in that period once he became speaker.</s>VELSHI: Well, let's talk about Romney for a second, who doesn't tend to slip up too much. I recall a few months ago when he said something about corporations are people, and that sort of -- that tends to be his Achilles heel, this idea that he's thought of as this rich guy. He had a disagreement with Rick Perry in this debate about something that was in his book or not in his book. And he was so insistent that he offered Rick Perry a $10,000 bet. We've been talking to conservatives all morning. Some of whom think the 10,000 bucks makes him seem out of touch. Others whom think that evangelicals shouldn't be betting.</s>ROMANS: Betting is not something that a Baptist is going to be into. Is this his H.W. Bush moment at the grocery store where he didn't know what the scanner was?</s>BROWNSTEIN: It's similar, I think, yes. And, also, one thing that really matters here is that the composition of the Republican electorate has changed. There are fewer, you know, there many more of what they call the Sam's club Republicans. A lot more blue collar and working class party than it was 20 years ago when George Bush didn't identify the supermarket scanner. So, yes, I think this is going to be a difficult moment for Romney. Can he overcome it? Sure. But it definitely goes to his biggest -- one of his biggest weaknesses in this race, the sense that he could be out of touch with average voters. And Rick Perry certainly jumped on it right away yesterday on television.</s>VELSHI: What do you think of the others? Michele Bachmann. She always has sort of something nifty that she said. This time she coined the term "Newt/Romney" to talk about the two front-runners. Santorum can't really seem to get much traction here. This is their big play. Iowa is going to be a great play for conservatives. What do they do with this?</s>BROWNSTEIN: So, I mean, the debate kind of physically encapsulated the dynamic of the race. You have at the center of the stage, two people, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, that the conservatives are not entirely comfortable with. And it produces the anomalous situation where the biggest single bloc in the party doesn't have a horse that it fully trusts at the center of this race. And then you have the four candidates on the wings, all of whom are more conservative than those in the center who are trying to get in there. If there was any bad news for Newt Gingrich in this race, it was how well Michele Bachmann did, because Gingrich is benefitting from a consolidation as I said among Tea Party voters, and evangelical Christians. In some way, she is a more natural fit from many of those voters. But they haven't seen her as a viable alternative as the race went on. If she can kind of re-launch herself -- and I thought Rick Perry did himself some good as well, same thing. If either can get renewed momentum, they're likely to take more votes from Gingrich than from Romney. But overall, it was a strong night for Gingrich. And I think Bachmann did kind of do as well as she could to say, hey, look at me again before we close this thing down in Iowa.</s>VELSHI: All right. Ron, good to talk to you as always. Ron Brownstein is CNN senior political analyst and he's the editorial director at "National Journal."</s>BROWNSTEIN: Thanks, guys.</s>ROMANS: Rick Perry did not take that bet.</s>VELSHI: He did not -- when somebody offers you a bet about something that they are sure about and put their hand out is maybe to take it. But I think he did some very fast -- for a guy who's been criticized for not thinking fast on his feet, I think with conservatives, him not taking that bet probably did him a lot of good.</s>ROMANS: When he said the Sam's Club Republicans, too. I just read a stat recently that Costco, the average income for someone who shopped at Costco is $93,000.</s>VELSHI: Yes, Costco --</s>ROMANS: They're calling them Sam's Club conservatives.</s>VELSHI: High end people save their money by shopping at Costco. But the Sam's Club Republicans are not going to necessarily relate to a $10,000 bet.</s>ROMANS: No, they won't. All right. Time now for this morning's top stories. An al Qaeda prison break in Yemen. At least 15 suspected terrorists dug a tunnel out of a prison in south Yemen. This is an area where militants have seized entire chunks of a province. Political violence turns that country upside-down.</s>VELSHI: Conservative Republicans are on the record this morning saying that Congress will reach an agreement before the end of the year to extend the payroll tax cut. Now, that signals a shift in position for the GOP. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on the left and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on the right making the rounds on the Sunday morning talk shows conceding that we need to extend the tax break that is saving the average American worker about $1,000 a year.</s>SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY), MINORITY LEADER: I believe that we should extend the payroll tax holiday another year, avoid a tax increase on working people for another year. I also agree with Senator Reid, my counterpart, that we ought not to do it again next year. Now, we know that's an emergency package, coupled with an extension of unemployment, with some reforms. But at the same time, Chris, we'd like to create some jobs.</s>VELSHI: The House bill to extend the payroll tax cut also includes provisions to ease the approval process for the controversial Keystone oil pipeline. The House is expected to vote on the measure tomorrow.</s>ROMANS: And if employment benefits are allowed to expire, there's 5 million people who lost jobless benefits by the end of the year.</s>VELSHI: You remember we had this discussion a year ago.</s>ROMANS: It looks like Iran will not return that unmanned U.S. spy drone. Did anyone think they would? The deputy commander of the Iranian military says that no one welcomes spying and no one sends back the spying equipment to its country of origin. Iran claims it downed that U.S. drone earlier this month near the city of Kashmar, about 140 miles from its border with Afghanistan.</s>VELSHI: I venture he's right on that. I don't know if anybody has ever returned that stuff. Former dictator Manuel Noriega is in Panama, spending his first night back home in a prison cell. The drug-running dictator from the 1980 who was extradited back to Panama yesterday, he was taken straight to prison to begin serving a 20-year sentence for murdering his opponents while in power. Noriega is 77 years old. He's been in France for 2010 after spending two decades in an American prison for drug trafficking and money laundering. All right. Coming up, bombshell child sex abuse allegations against the president of the Amateur Athletic Union. We'll have those details ahead.</s>ROMANS: And a bloody brawl in college basketball. We'll show the fight that left eight players suspended and one bloodied.</s>VELSHI: And ice cream giants Ben & Jerry siding with the 99 percent. We'll ask them why they support the Occupy Wall Street movement when they join us later on in the show. It's 12 minutes after the hour.