Gary Condit Files For Re-Election
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: We're going to take a few moments now to focus on domestic politics in this time of war, including some names you know but may not have thought about much since September 11. One case in point, the California congressman, Gary Condit. He filed the paperwork on Friday to run for re-election in the Central Valley district. Rusty Dornin has more on his decision and its political impact.</s>RUSTY DORNIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Would he or wouldn't he? Only his closest advisers knew for sure.</s>REP. GARY CONDIT (D), CALIFORNIA: I'm going to leave you a blank check.</s>DORNIN: Then 40 minutes before the filing deadline, Congressman Gary Condit himself appeared to file re-election papers in Modesto, California. The man who spent most of the summer running from the press decided he will run again for office.</s>CONDIT: It was a tough decision. I mean, I have been through a pretty tough three or four months. And it is a tough decision. I have to admit that to you. But I've been -- I have spent a long time in public service. And it was very important to me to represent the valley. They have allowed me to do that in this fashion. I'm going to continue do it.</s>DORNIN: Romantically linked to still missing intern Chandra Levy, Condit's popularity plummeted last summer, despite repeated statements from Washington police that he was not a suspect in Levy's disappearance. He was all but abandoned by his own party. Then came the terrorist attacks. Condit headlines disappeared and so did the hordes that followed him. Then his district was redrawn. Many of the loyal voters were taken, added were many only familiar with the congressman's recent infamy. Democratic contenders have lined up to challenge him in the primary, including one of his former aides, Dennis Cardoza.</s>QUESTION: Is he angry with you?</s>DENNIS CARDOZA (D), CALIFORNIA ASSEMBLY: I don't think is he very pleased. At stake, one key seat in a congress with a razor thin margin.</s>SANDY LUCAS, STANISLAUS COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE: The polls show that not only he would lose to the Republican candidate, but he would also affect our winning the state senate and assembly races in this area.</s>DORNIN: This was Condit's first spontaneous press conference in nearly eight months. He said he made his final decision over the last few days. Flanked by his family, Condit says is he on a mission.</s>CONDIT: I'm going to just focus on my record. But with a media horde like this, it's not likely that's where the focus will stay. Rusty Dornin, CNN, San Francisco.</s>BLITZER: For more now on the Gary Condit race and several other interesting campaigns shaping up across the United States, we are joined by two of our political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg of the "Rothenberg Political Report", Charlie Cook of the "National Journal." Let me begin with you, Stu. The Condit race -- does anybody really think he has a chance of winning?</s>STUART ROTHENBERG, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Apparently, Gary Condit does. I don't know where he got that idea. I don't know anybody else that believes that. Wolf, I think what happened was the Condit story was swept off the front pages by the war and maybe Condit assumes that changes his overall outlook. But what we all remember about Gary Condit is what we last heard which is the scandal and his performance and his apparent lack of forthrightness. I think that' what voters -- I know that's what voters are going to remember.</s>BLITZER: And, Charlie, he is going to face a strong Democratic opponent for the primary.</s>CHARLIE COOK, "NATIONAL JOURNAL": Sure, I mean, never is a long time and impossible is a big word. But it is very, very hard to see how he survives his primary. He has got a state assemblyman, Dennis Cardoza, who is a very strong candidate, moderate Democrat. They have moved the district over where there are almost 200,000 new voters from over by Stockton. It's a very, very -- it's almost impossible to see how he wins the primary. And that is why Democrats aren't really that worried about it because they just don't see him surviving the primary. There is one strong Democrat and then a bunch of no-names in the race.</s>BLITZER: And the national Democratic party -- they are going to stay out of that as far as they can.</s>COOK: Well, they are going to stay out as long as they assume that Condit loses the primary. But if you saw him competitive a couple weeks out, my guess is you would see the leadership come in and pull the rug out from under him. They are assuming that he has no chance to win the primary. Otherwise, I don't think that be even state neutral.</s>ROTHENBERG: Well, Wolf, the fact that the leadership is neutral with an incumbent member of Congress in the race says something. It says that he is not particularly popular and that they can't support him.</s>BLITZER: So that -- pretty much a Republican district there that he used to win pretty often.</s>ROTHENBERG: It used to be. They made the district much more Democratic. But if Gary Condit should somehow squeeze through the primary, I think the Republicans would be salivating.</s>COOK: George Bush carried the old district with 53 percent of the vote. Under the new lines he only got 45 percent of the vote. So it is now a pretty comfortably Democratic district. If Condit were the nominee, would Democrats lose it? Yes. But nobody expects Condit to win that nomination.</s>BLITZER: All right. Stu, what is happening in North Carolina? Jesse Helms', of course, seat is very much up for grabs.</s>ROTHENBERG: Well, early on it looked as though both parties were going to have major primaries. And there are still primaries involved. But most of the primary attention is on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, Richard Vinroot, the former mayor of Charlotte, dropped out. There is an attorney there, Jim Snyder, who is attacking Elizabeth Dole. He is attacking her on guns, portraying her as squishy and too moderate for a very conservative electorate. But she has the lead now. The Democratic race is really interesting. Erskine Bowles, former Clinton chief of staff; state representative Dan Blue, an African-American, with African-Americans constituting between 30 and 35 percent of Democratic primary voters; and Secretary of State Elaine Marshal -- a really interesting three-way race.</s>BLITZER: So Elizabeth Dole has the Republican nomination pretty much entirely locked up.</s>COOK: Absolutely, and just sort of who comes out of the Democratic primary fight. I mean, roughly speaking, you could say the Democratic primary electorate, under normal circumstances, would be about 40 percent female -- white female -- 30 percent white male, and then about 30 percent African-American. What Blue needs to get is a big, big strong African-American vote out. You know, most Washington types are watching Erskine Bowles. But it is going to be a very competitive primary.</s>BLITZER: Paul Wellstone's seat is up for grabs as well. He is going to be seeking re-election.</s>ROTHENBERG: He is, and there was a poll out just recently that shows him with a one-point lead. There have been other polls showing a four to six-point lead. But the important point, when matched against the former mayor -- I guess -- is he former mayor now?</s>COOK: He is current now. He leaves office on January 2.</s>ROTHENBERG: Norm Coleman is that -- Wellstone is under 50 percent every time. Coleman is a very charismatic, interesting guy. He is from Brooklyn originally, a former Democrat. This continues to be a top-tier race. I think we'll see the polls move around, depending on whether it's a St. Cloud state poll or somebody else. But Wellstone is under 50. I think he will probably stay that way -- great race.</s>COOK: If you are going to look at say the half-dozen races most likely to determine who is going to control the U.S. Senate, Minnesota would definitely be on that list.</s>BLITZER: Where does Jesse Ventura, the governor of Minnesota, fit into this whole political equation?</s>COOK: Well, some people have thrown his name out as a possible candidate. Nobody seems to be taking it terribly seriously. But his job -- he is up for re-election if he decides to run again -- his job approval ratings are worse than they have ever been. There is some talk that he may either</s>A: not run for re-election, or</s>B: that he could jump into the Senate race. I don't think he gets in the Senate race. But, he doesn't have the clout he did two years ago. That's for sure.</s>BLITZER: If he gets into the Senate race though, there's three -- it then becomes a three-party race and it's anyone's...</s>COOK: Well, that's how he got into begin with is shooting the gap in a three-way race.</s>ROTHENBERG: And a lot of political analysts have gone wrong underestimating Jesse Ventura. It's all personal appeal, I think, there. And in a three-way race, who knows?</s>COOK: Hey, we would love to see him run. Run, Jessie, run.</s>BLITZER: It would be thrilling. Remember those political commercials.</s>ROTHENBERG: With the</s>BLITZER: Yes, those were great commercials. Thanks, Stuart, Charlie, appreciate it.