Beaver: Russian Crew Could Have Survived Dual Explosions Aboard Trapped Sub
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Now the viability of the British mini- sub mission hinges on a number of elements, timing being the most critical right now. Military analyst Paul Beaver joins us with some perspective. He has been following this story from his position at "Jane's Defence Weekly" in London. And Mr. Beaver, we thank you for taking time to talk with us this morning. I understand that you have been talking with a number of people, Russians and Norwegians who are involved with this operation, what have you learned?</s>PAUL BEAVER, "JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY": Yes. We've been in touch, not only with the Russians in Moscow and Murmansk, also of course, with the Norwegians and with the NATO task force, which has been there, and task force perhaps too great a word for it, there have been NATO ships that have been monitoring the exercise in which the Kursk was originally taking part on the weekend. Now, all the information we have is that it seems there were two explosions on Saturday night that were detected by a Norwegian spy ship about 20 kilometers away, about 15 nautical miles. What they detected was a small explosion, which would be characteristic of a torpedo, and then a much larger explosion, which would indicate that either some more of the warheads went off, or perhaps one of the cruise missiles, which is stored outside the pressure hull in the submarine, she carries 24 of them, that one of those warheads detonated. And the British tell us that they have also seen pictures which indicate a high-energy source, an explosion, took place. It looks as though it ripped through the first two main compartment, the torpedo compartment and the torpedo handling room, and probably even breached to the control room. So massive damage done to that submarine even before it hit the bottom on Saturday night.</s>HARRIS: Well, considering that then, what do you think are the possibilities that perhaps all the crew perished in the blast?</s>BEAVER: No. I don't think all the crew would have perished in the blast. You have to remember, these submarines are pretty rigidly built. The Russians know how to build nuclear-powered submarines to withstand explosions. So I would imagine everything after the reactor compartment, which is specially shocked-loaded so it doesn't get destroyed by torpedoes, everything after that, into the engineering space there, that should all be OK. Now the problem for the conscripts who man these engineering spaces is that there usually are very few officers there. So there's not a lot of command and control when it comes to escape. So, the good thing, though, is they have got an escape hatch there, it is of the sort that is fitted to all Russian-built submarines, and the LR5 has already docked a few years ago with a Polish submarine, which has a similar escape mechanism. So we are holding quite a lot of hope, if LR5 can get alongside, if the angle isn't too great, they can actually dock properly.</s>HARRIS: Well, let me ask you this, finally, has an LR5 ever made such a docking in these kinds of conditions what with the weather and the surf there?</s>BEAVER: Nobody has ever docked in quite this way in these conditions, with the currents running, with the problems above the surface. The advantage the LR5 has is it's an independent mobile vehicle so it can actually operate by itself, it doesn't need anyone on the surface, it can operate to degrees of 60 degrees of list, to 20 degrees nose down, the submarines out at the moment, it can do that. And it has the capability of mating onto any hull. So we are actually holding out quite a lot of hope for it reaching it, but what they find there at the end of the day, that is the big question.</s>HARRIS: Exactly, that is the big question. Well, here's hoping they will make some history and come back with a happy ending of some sort. Paul Beaver, thank you very much for your expertise. We appreciate it.</s>BEAVER: Absolutely.