Oil Prices Rebound as OPEC Pact Holds.
ANDERSON: Welcome back. You're watching a special edition of Connect the World. We are live from the World Government summit here in Dubai. And that was John Defterios coming up shortly before the break we were looking at how the White House and the Kremlin appear to be moving closer. The opposite happening between the U.S. and Iran. But away from the heated political rhetoric on both sides, what do Iranians think of President Trump out on their cool slopes? Fred Pleitgen has been finding out for you.</s>FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Internationally, not many people know that Iran has a wealth of ski areas. Looking at the crowd here you could almost think you're in a European or American resort. Fewer religious conservatives and more moderates. And many of those moderates fears President Donald Trump's harsh stance on Iran could lead to renewed conflict.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Iranian people, you know, they showed a relation -- a good relationship to Americans but I don't think that Trump shows a good faith. Yes, he's against us. "We're not happy with what Trump is saying us, this man says." But the Iranian people and the government will show the world that it's not true."</s>PLEITGEN: After some easing of tensions during the Obama years U.S./Iranian relations have taken nose dive since President Trump assumed office. The administration hitting Iran with sanctions after Tehran conducted a ballistic missile test in late January. Iran hitting back. Its President Hassan Rouhani calling Trump a political new comer and emphasizing that Iran will not back down from its positions. Many Iranians now fearing escalating tensions could harm the nuclear agreement between Iran, the U.S. and several other nations that curb Iran's nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief. Especially moderate Iranians were very excited about the nuclear agreement, thinking it would bring this country big economic benefits. Now many of them worry that Donald Trump's tough stance on Iran could destroy the deal. Tourism is one of the sectors Iranians hope will blossom after decades of stagnation, and many here still hope souring U.S./Iranian relations won't derail the fledging upswing. "We're happy when the relationship is going well," he says. "We need good relations not conflict." The new Trump administration has caused a feeling of uncertainty for many Iranians concerned about the deteriorating ties between the two nations hoping the down work trajectory doesn't become even steeper. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Darbansar (ph), Iran.</s>ANDERSON: Slopes look amazing, don't they? Well, we are right across the water from Iran here in Dubai. Slightly different weather, it has to be said. There's certainly been tension between the UAE and Iran from time to time as well. CNN's John Defterios, my colleague, has learned more about it here at the World Government Summit - John.</s>JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN EMERGING MARKETS EDITOR: In fact, we're just standing outside the museum of the future. So the focus has been on innovation, job creation, new economic models, but shall we say the legacy issues here in the region continue to pop up. And of course that deals with Iran. Great concern from the six Gulf states about what they see as expansionist policies by Iran into Syria, Yemen, Iraq. They even stretch that even to Bahrain. It comes back again and again. I spoke to the minister of state of foreign affairs for the UAE. And what emerged, Becky, is interesting, a dual track strategy. They want to apply pressure to the - what they see as the hardliners, the Revolutionary Guard in Iran, but not tearing up the nuclear agreement, because they want to keep Iran in the international tent and basically continue negotiations. They even sent the foreign minister for Kuwait to Iran to open up that dialogue.</s>ANDRESON: That's fascinating.</s>DEFTERIOS: Very fascinating. Let's take a listen to the minister of state and what he had to say. If it's going to marginalize the moderates or not, he disagrees entirely.</s>ANWAR GARGASH, UAE FOREIGN MINISTER: I think we can address, you know, Iran's behavior, while at the same time maintaining the nuclear agreement. I don't see a contradiction from a regional perspective.</s>DEFTERIOS: But there's elections in May. Isn't there a risk you drive the moderates out and almost welcome the hardliners, which will push you further away from continuing a nuclear agreement.</s>GARGASH: I think that whole premise is naive. I think if you look at Iran's regional politics, it's always been handled by the Revolutionary Guard, by the hardcore of the hardcore of the regime. So, I don't really subscribe to the basic premise that engaging Iran will necessarily enable the moderate forces to take charge. What is extremely important is to understand that there is a dichotomy within Iran. The hardliners and the regime who drive policy, want an Iran that is theological, expanding, religious state. But most of the population actually wants to open up on the world. Unfortunately, we have to deal with the government, with what's going on in terms of its regional politics. So I think it is extremely important for Iran to understand that it has to behave like any other state and respecting the sovereignty of other states. Is has to accept that it cannot conduct normal relations with its neighbors while exporting what I would say it's form of revolution and it's form of ideology. And I think this has to sink in.</s>DEFTERIOS: Anwar Garbash, that's pretty blunt language here basically suggesting they have to realize this has to sink in. This dovetails nicely for them, the Gulf States, with the Trump administration, applying the economic sanctions, the Trump administration on the hard liners, the Revolutionary Guard, and their affiliates while still maintaining a dialogue in the nuclear agreement. Now, the proof in the pudding, if you will, is whether Hassan Rouhani is the choice to continue running for president, or do they go to the more extreme position with - in the ilk of a President Ahmadinejad as we saw in the past. That's not been decided just yet.</s>ANDERSON: I think the relationship between the UAE and Iran is a great example of we see in so many places around the world, this is deficit of trust. We have seen in so many places. And whatever is going on behind the scenes, that is one pillar to this. OPEC, out with its first report since it said that we would experience, or the oil industry would put the brakes on its production. Talk about a deficit of trust. Did they do it?</s>DEFTERIOS: They've had that deficit, but they surprised everybody. The IAEA, International Energy agency on Friday said it was 90 percent compliance. OPEC said it's actually 92 percent compliance. So they cuts already of a 1 million barrels a day. Their target on the OPEC side is 1.2 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC players, another 600,000 to take that to 1.8. The bad news here, non-OPEC players, Russia and the others, only have 50 percent comliance. So, I talked to Suheil Musruhi (ph), the UAE minister of energy. And he told me, look, don't look at just the first month. We need to sustain this on the OPEC side for six months, through the end of June, and then the non- OPEC producers will come along. They need to at least get to the end of the first quarter before we can pass judgment. We're in that sweet spot, Becky, by the way. It's below $60 a barrel. I call it kind of the new Goldilocks. It's not high enough for all the shale producers and all the more expensive projects to come on board. It gives OPEC a lot more control. But we're seeing a recovering in shale production. So it's going to be that give and take in 2017. But the non-OPEC players need to play their part in terms of living to the agreement. They agreed and signed on in December.</s>ANDERSON: When the report says 92 percent compliance, do we find out who the 8 percent who haven't complied?</s>DEFTERIOS: Well, that's a good point. There's 11 of the OPEC players. Six of them have really complied. Saudi Arabia has overshot, so they're kind of riding on the coattails of Khalid al-Faleh, he minister of energy there and the deputy crown prince who have decided to go along wit this thing. The UAE said they have a target of 160,000 barrels. They're almost there. There's four or five that (inaudible). The challenge for OPEC is that Nigeria is coming back and Libya is coming back. And they're not part of the agreement. Bu again nobody is complaining. Let's think about January of 2016, $27 a barrel. January and February of 2017, we're at $56, $57 a barrel. So, 100 percent recovery is not bad. It's not fantastic, but it's not bad.</s>ANDERSON: Saudi, Iran relationship no harm when we begin to see oil economics playing into the kind of bigger picture, doesn't it, on a geopolitical basis?</s>DEFTERIOS: That's a surprise. In fact, Khalid al-Faleh, the minister of energy, and Bijan Zangeneh, minister of energy, his counterpart in Iran, are proving that you can work together. They found common ground. Iran not going over 4 million barrels a day of production. Basically Saudi Arabia didn't fight for that. And they said, look, if we can agree on our number one revenue earner, we can do more together. But it hasn't filtered into the political scene just yet.</s>ANDERSON: What's your take away from what is this fifth World Government Summit very briefly?</s>DEFTERIOS: No, I think it's the address of radical Islam and the - if you will, the maturation of the UAE. Bold enough to suggest that we have an economic model that could be exported to the rest of the region, and suggesting that the hijacking of Islam for radical purposes is not correct. We saw Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid say it yesterday as the prime minister and ruler of Dubai, and a panel I shared today with the minister of tolerance and the ambassador to Russia for the UAE, they both said the same thing, let's speak up. We can't take the loyalty to the Muslim principles for granted and the next generation. We have to do more.</s>ANDERSON: John Defterios in the house, viewers. Thank you, John.</s>DEFTERIOS: Yeah, thanks.</s>ANDERSON: What are your thoughts on everything that we have been being discussing? These topics affect us all. So I want to hear from you. Let's get you online on social and on digital for us. Facebook.com/CNNConnect is one way of getting in touch. Let us know what you think or tweet me @BeckyCNN. That is @BeckyCNN. We're going to get you the very latest world news headlines in just a moment. Then we are live in Seoul for reaction to North Korea's missile test. As well as a lot more from here in Dubai at the World Government Summit. Stay with us.