Balance of Power Shift in Turkey; Iraq Insists It's Being Unfairly Maligned by U.S., Britain
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Our top story right now, a still developing one out of Turkey. So far, the developments have Pentagon planners delighted. Remember the Army's fourth infantry division based at Fort Hood, Texas? It has 62,000 soldiers cooling their heels there, waiting for a green light from Turkey to deploy for a possible war with Iraq. Well, suddenly prospects for that green light appear a little brighter. CNN'S Harris Whitbeck is in Turkey where the balance appears to have shifted during several crucial hours today. What's the latest, Harris?</s>HARRIS WHITBECK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Anderson. Political changes here might make Parliament reconsider its earlier decision on allowing U.S. troops to base in Turkey, maybe because there might soon be a new prime minister here.</s>WHITBECK (voice-over): Traditional celebrations of a political victory that might well change the course of Turkish politics, U.S.- Turkish relations, and the possible war with Iraq. Justice and development party leader Tayyip Erdogan was elected to parliament. And as chief of the ruling party, he is expected to become Turkey's newest prime minister. The change in government U.S. officials say has raised hopes that Turkey will reconsider letting some 62,000 U.S. troops establish a ground attack against Iraq from the north. So much so that U.S. ambassador Robert Pearson spent more than three hours meeting with the ruling party leaders on Sunday fine-tuning the proposal that parliament turn down once.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think this gives a very positive stimulus to our efforts. And we will continue to work as -- and give this our very best efforts to see if we can finalize all the details.</s>WHITBECK: Analysts say a second motion should have a better chance of passage. Recent demonstrations against Turkey and Kurdish controlled northern Iraq have many Turks demanding a say should war break out. The fear is that Iraqi Kurds would try to establish an independent state, riling up Turkish Kurds who have fought for independence in Turkey as well.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think has made blood boil a little on the Turkish side. So you know, now there's the notion that, you know, something's going to happen there. Turkey was very right in wanting to be -- establish a presence there. And therefore, this is why the motion must pass.</s>WHITBECK: While the United States has already been moving military equipment to border staging areas, it needs the authorization for troop movements to come quickly.</s>WHITBECK: Now Tayyip Erdogan did say in an interview with our sister network CNN Turk just a few hours ago that he would wait to see what the U.N. Security Council has to say when it meets to vote on the U.S.-Iraq issue next Tuesday -- Anderson?</s>COOPER: Well, Harris, tell me a little bit about public opinion there? I mean, we have been hearing a couple days ago that, you know, upwards of 90 percent of the Turkish population were against the notion of U.S. troops using Turkey to launch an attack on Iraq. Has that somehow changed? And if it hasn't, how did this guy win an election?</s>WHITBECK: Well, public opinion on the Iraq issue really hasn't changed. And Erdogan won this election not really using the issue of U.S. troops in Turkey as part of his campaign. What he did run in was in a very small -- by election in one particular province in southern Turkey. He's very popular there. His wife is from there. And he was running more on a platform of economic change by continuing democratic change in Turkey. And that's what got him elected to parliament. Since he is a leader of the ruling party, that is what would make him become prime minister. Now he has been very cautious. And he was very cautious during this interview with CNN Turk last night here -- a few hours ago here, not wanting to really address the issue or say, you know, how we would go on that issue so soon after his victory.</s>COOPER: And the bottom line is how quickly might a decision be made, if in fact this takes place?</s>WHITBECK: Well, the first step is for him to actually become prime minister. That could happen as early as Wednesday or Thursday of next week. After that, he would have to present the motion to parliament. So I'd say we're talking at least a week.</s>COOPER: All right, Harris Whitbeck, I appreciate you staying up late for us. I know it's been a long day. I appreciate it. Thanks very much. Well, you have no doubt heard that U.S. troops in Turkey would allow for a northern front against Iraq, but what would an attack from Turkey look like? How will it go down? Retired Air Force General George Harrison joins us now with some thoughts. General, thanks for being with us.</s>GEORGE HARRISON, GEN., U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): It's a pleasure.</s>COOPER: So what is this potential invasion force from the north going to look like?</s>HARRISON: Well, the invasion force is being assembled of course as pretty clear in the nature of the force depends upon the access that's granted by Turkey. As you know, if we can bring up the first map here, as you know, we've been flying patrols over this area circled here for the last 10 years. That's been Operation Northern Watch and Operation Provide Comfort. So we have a good idea of the kinds of Air Defenses, the kind of situation that exists in there militarily in that particular area. Obviously, and we can move to the second -- the next graphic if you will please, obviously this entire area we're interested in bringing a thrust down into this area so that Saddam has to split his forces. We'll see another thrust coming in from the south, possibly in areas like that. So that means that he has to split his forces. And that's a very important aspect of the way this entire campaign operates.</s>COOPER: And the first wave of this campaign probably be from the air, some sort of artillery or munitions. What are we talking about? What kind of technology do we have?</s>HARRISON: Well the first wave, of course, and it may be simultaneous with the ground assault, but the first wave is defense suppression. We'll see F-16 CJs. I think we got an F-16 coming up now in the next graphic. The F-16, and there are several versions of it, but the version that will be key to this operation will be the version with high speed anti radiation missile. The Harm missile, which we'll see in the next graphic, is an anti radar missile. The purpose of the Harm missile is to home on radiation from air defense artilleries, air defense artillery sites, the kinds of things that threaten our Air Forces, both high speed and low speed aircraft.</s>COOPER: And let's talk land invasion or other technology we have, both in the event that we -- the United States is able to use Turkey as a base and that they are not?</s>HARRISON: Well, if we're not able to use Turkey as a base, if we can bring up the next map, we might see air assaults coming up. That would be primarily with using the UH-60 helicopter. We might see, for instance, a vertical envelopment launching out of some of these areas in here. Or we may have to go all the way across neutral territory to get forces on the ground in these areas. If we do have land access, if we can move forces across the border on the land, I think we'll see a considerably heavier force. We'll see M1A1 tanks, Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. I think we've got a couple graphics on those kinds of systems that we can bring up.</s>COOPER: Yes, we're looking at the Abrams right now.</s>HARRISON: Okay, I'm not seeing it on my monitor. So I'm working a little bit blind here.</s>COOPER: Yes, well, we're now looking at the Bradley fighting vehicle, the M2A3.</s>HARRISON: And the Bradley, of course, supports the infantry, the tankers, the tanks on the Bradleys work together, so that they can move in a coordinated fashion moving south. We've shown a couple of population centers in the maps that we've had up.</s>COOPER: All right. It's interesting. You know, obviously a lot depends on whether or not the situation does change in Turkey. It's obviously a situation we will continue to monitor. Retired Air Force General George Harrison, as always, appreciate you coming down. Always interesting to talk to you. Thanks very much.</s>HARRISON: Pleasure to be here.</s>COOPER: For its part, Iraq continues to insist it is being unfairly maligned by the U.S. and Britain, basically accusing the two countries of a conspiracy of lies. CNN'S senior international correspondent Nic Robertson has more now on that from Baghdad.</s>NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: At his weekly media briefing, General Hussam Amin, the head of Iraq's national monitoring directorate, the group that deals with the U.N. weapons inspectors here, said that Mohammed Elbaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency had told the U.N. Security Council effectively that Iraq did not possess any nuclear weapons and was -- had no intention of developing such weapons at this time. He also indicated that the very fact that it had now been proven that the documents that had indicated that Iraq had been trying to procure uranium, enriched uranium, the very fact that these had proven to be false was another indication that the United States and Great Britain have been lying all along.</s>HUSSAM AMIN, GEN., MONITORING DIRECTORATE: Mr. Elbaradei declared clearly that the accusation attempt to -- of attempt to import uranium from</s>ROBERTSON: Iraqi officials also say they believe their position, that they have no nuclear weapons, has been vindicated as well by Mohammed Elbaradei's speech at the U.N. Security Council because they say it shows that they were only importing the aluminum tubing to re or back engineer some missile components, that these had nothing to do with centrifuges and uranium enrichment. And they say the same thing about the magnets, the magnets that it had been suspected could be part of the uranium enrichment process. They say the very fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency does not believe these have any connection with a nuclear weapons program shows that Iraq has not been lying, and that it is only the United States and Great Britain that have been lying about Iraq's intentions all along. Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.</s>COOPER: Well, still on this story, "Time" magazine reports that Iran, right next door to Iraq, is close to completing a facility for enriching uranium. Now that, of course, is an ominous sign of the country's nuclear intentions. Secretary of State Colin Powell says it is an object lesson of exactly the kind of thing the U.S. wants to avoid in Iraq.</s>COLIN POWELL, SEC. OF STATE: Here we suddenly discover that Iran is much further along, with a far more robust nuclear weapons development program than anyone said it had. And now the IAEA has found that out. We've provided them information. They have discovered it. And it shows you how a determined nation that had the intent to develop a nuclear weapon can keep that development process secret from inspectors and outsiders.</s>COOPER: Well, we are staying focused on this entire showdown in the region in the next couple of minutes of our broadcast. Right now, we're going to check out -- talk more about the relationship with Iran and what it might mean if they are in fact developing nuclear capabilities. Iran, of course, is no friend of the United States. That has been abundantly clear since the Carter administration. So does the U.S. need to worry about a nuclear Iran, the same way it's worried about Iraq? We are joined now. Former U.N. and nuclear inspector, David Albright, who joins us from Washington, along with CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. General, thanks for being with us late on this Sunday night. David Albright, how alarming is it, this news that "Time" magazine is reporting?</s>DAVID ALBRIGHT, FMR. IAEA INSPECTOR: Well, the story's been around for several months. I mean, the -- Iranian opposition group actually broke the story last summer. And the IAEA used that information to find this uranium enrichment plant. And Colin Powell had the order a little reversed. The United States didn't tell the IAEA about this plant. The IAEA actually found it and then sought help from the United States to identify it as uranium enrichment plant. What was surprising when Mohammed Elbaradei, the head of the IAEA went there a couple weeks ago was that the Natanz site, where the uranium enrichment facility's under construction, had operating centrifuges, almost 200 operating centrifuges. Now they don't have any uranium in it. And so Iran actually, as far as we can tell right now, has not violated any treaties, but it's very serious development. And it surprised that it does have these operating centrifuges at Natanz. And Elbaradei has characterized it as sophisticated program. And so, Iran is joining a club of about only 10 nations that can actually enrich uranium.</s>COOPER: Well, Bill Schneider, it is obviously a club the Bush administration wishes Iran would not join. Politically, this has got to come at the worst time for the Bush administration?</s>BILL SCHNEIDER: Or, Anderson, conceivably the best time because the argument that they're making is one of the reasons why we need to disarm Iraq is so that it will not acquire the capability of developing nuclear weapons. So far, the Atomic Energy Agency's inspections have not indicated that there's evidence that they're doing that. They've clearly expressed the intention of doing it. And they had a nuclear plant once before that Israel bombed. I think it was in 1987, a long time ago, but they clearly have the ambition to become nuclear. If they became nuclear, they'd be North Korea, which is trying to blackmail the United States. And Iran, if it becomes nuclear, would be in the same position. They could blackmail the United States, a rogue nation like any of those on the so-called "axis of evil" with nuclear weapons is in a much more threatening and powerful position.</s>COOPER: But it's interesting, you're saying it's actually may strengthen the Bush administration policy toward Iraq?</s>SCHNEIDER: Yes, because the argument is we don't want Iraq to acquire that capability. That -- because then they'd be more dangerous probably than both North Korea and Iran because they harbor a longstanding grievance against the United States. Imagine what would happen if Iraq developed nuclear weapons the way North Korea is and Iran may be doing. That's one of the arguments they use for disarming Iraq.</s>COOPER: David Albright, what is the way that this is probably going to be handled? I mean, based on your experience, I guess there are several ways to go about it publicly, sort of taking it on, making a big stink about it in public? Or trying to sort of through diplomacy behind closed doors deal with it, I guess by the U.N., by Elbaradei? What's your take on how it's going to play out?</s>ALBRIGHT: Well, the first thing is that international community is going to really insist that Iran open up its nuclear program, reveal all of its facilities, talk about what it's doing at those facilities, allow inspections to happen at all those facilities. And that -- and it's still not clear if Iran's going to do that. The other thing is the United States is going to be pressing countries like Russia to cut off supplies and materials and equipment to Iran, to try to choke the program, particularly the uranium enrichment program. But the United States is in a very difficult position. Iran has done something very clever. In a way, it's using transparency to further its national security. It's saying to the United States don't think if you're going to march north to Baghdad that you can turn right and come to Tehran. And yet it's doing it under the cloak of openness and declaring a much broader civilian nuclear program than we thought existed, all the while denying that it has nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons ambitions. And yet, the message that it could get nuclear weapons is unmistakable.</s>SCHNEIDER: That's right.</s>COOPER: Go ahead.</s>SCHNEIDER: But look at what North Korea's doing, Anderson. North Korea was even more open. They admitted it. Of course, we had the goods on them when they did, but they admitted it because they are explicitly using their nuclear capability to try to blackmail the United States.</s>COOPER: Bill Schneider, do you think we're going to hear any more of the term "axis of evil?" I mean, if you know, it was a term he used, you know, basically sort of launching this speech, but if ever there was a time to revive that, this would seem to be it. I mean, you know, all of a sudden, the three countries he's named are now coming forward, you know, talking a nuclear weaponry.</s>SCHNEIDER: Yes, I don't think that this is the time to go provoking other nations, especially nearby nations like Iran. If we deliberately provoke Iran by saying you see, we called them the axis of evil. They're more evil than we thought. There is always this danger that if we go into Iraq and let's say Turkey goes into the northern area of Iraq, Iran will say we have interests in Iraq as well, protecting our Shi'ite brethren in the south. And there is always the possibility that they can go into southern Iraq and open a new front. And that would be very dangerous for the United States.</s>COOPER: Indeed, we're going to have to leave it there. David Albright, Bill Schneider, appreciate you joining you joining us on this Sunday night. Thanks very much.</s>SCHNEIDER: Okay, thank you.