Battle for Key Swing States
TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. President Obama about to hit the stage any minute in New Hampshire. We will go there live as soon as he does. But in the meantime, let's focus in on three other important battleground states, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, where we have new information on early voting. My political panel will join me to break it all down right now, senior writer at "The Federalist" Mary Katharine Ham, "USA Today" columnist Kirsten Powers, CNN chief political another Gloria Borger, and former Obama senior adviser David Axelrod. Mary Katharine, let me start with you. Fifty percent of Floridians have already voted, and more of that state's residents have voted early or absentee than all of the voters in Florida in the year 2000. Here is the breakdown of how people have voted, 40 percent Democratic, 38 percent Republican, 22 percent no party affiliation. Donald Trump needs Florida. Republican say there's no path to the presidency for Donald Trump without the state of Florida. What do these numbers say to you?</s>MARY KATHARINE HAM, "THE FEDERALIST": He needs Florida. I think he personally wants Florida because he spends a lot of time there. Republicans feel like they're doing fairly well on the early voting stuff. Their game has become better over the past couple of cycles. It's a little hard because we don't have 2008's exact early vote numbers to do sort of apples and oranges. But the spike in the Latino vote certainly looks a little troubling for Donald Trump, if we assume they're not mostly for Donald Trump, which I assume. That's going to be hard to claw back.</s>TAPPER: Yes. What do you make of it all in Florida, Kirsten?</s>KIRSTEN POWERS, CNN COMMENTATOR: Well, I think it's maybe a little too -- closer than Democrats would like in the early vote because even if you're up, Democrats get more votes in the early vote, and so that means more people will be showing up on game day to vote. But, again, there's a huge Latino vote and we have heard a lot about people saying that the Latino vote is being undercounted. In that situation, it could make up the difference. But, look, it's just neck and neck. I just really don't think we know what's going to happen there.</s>GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: But when you have more than a 100 percent increase in one segment of the voting population, you have to pay attention. And I was talking to a Republican earlier today who said, we are paying a lot of attention to this. This is very troubling. And I think Democrats now believe that they can win that state by two to three points. Again, we don't know. It's early voting, but the surge in Latino voting is going to be a big story coming out of this campaign.</s>DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: One of the things that is curious -- interesting, I should say, about the results in Florida in the early vote is this fairly significant increase in people with no party affiliation who have turned out, which, first of all, makes it harder to dope out, but that group is disproportionately non-white and Hispanic. And so the suspicion is that a lot of new voters came in, registered, and are -- even though they didn't name a party affiliation, aren't there to vote for Donald Trump. Democrats are pretty confident about Florida.</s>TAPPER: David, let me ask you, speaking of confidence, what are they doing in Michigan?</s>AXELROD: I think it's a precautionary measure, because Michigan really -- a lot of these industrial states, Midwestern industrial states, will be closer, I think, than they were in 2012. I think the problem for Donald Trump is, this isn't horseshoes. You actually have to win. You can't just come close. And what I think the purpose of being in Michigan is to try and make sure that it stays close in her favor. And part of it has to do with turnout in Detroit, which is a concern, and some of these areas with the African-American populations, there is a real interest in hitting the turnout hard, because you don't have the first African-American president on the ballot this time.</s>BORGER: And you don't have early voting. So you really don't have as good a gauge as you might have in some of these other states, so I think they're trying to play protectively here and do the same thing in Pennsylvania as they are in Michigan.</s>POWERS: I just think -- I feel like a little too much is being made of the Michigan thing, actually.</s>TAPPER: You're very skeptical.</s>POWERS: I'm skeptical, yes, because I do think, look, they don't have early voting. You need to get -- turn people out. This is the linchpin. They obviously can't afford to lose there. They have -- they're trying to get to 270, you know, and then anything after that is gravy. This is how they get to 270. They're going to states. Pennsylvania, again, they don't have early voting. They're going to states and they're turning out their voters. I don't think that it means that they're in fear of losing Michigan and Pennsylvania to Donald Trump.</s>HAM: But I think his message was a threat to the Clinton campaign in those Rust Belt states, and somewhere like Michigan, where it is day of, they're hoping for this surge. I think, frankly, if it had been coupled with normal TV spending and a normal get-out-the-vote that a regular, conventional Republican campaign would have had, he might have had a better shot. But I think this close, it's really a stretch.</s>AXELROD: Also, how about a normal candidacy because...</s>HAM: Right, take 20 percent off...</s>AXELROD: ... part of the problem is, in these suburban areas, you have, particularly among women and college-educated women, you don't have the typical Republican vote. And that is hampering him in all of these states.</s>TAPPER: One of the things that's interesting obviously, Kirsten, is in North Carolina. I want you to take a look. "The Raleigh News & Observer" says that the North Carolina Republican Party put out a memo saying, "The Obama coalition is crumbling there" and pointing to a drop in turnout along African-American voters. In some ways, the Republican Party there is celebrating fewer voters turning out.</s>POWERS: Yes.</s>TAPPER: But also a lot of Democrats are saying, you know, this was planned. You know, Republicans and those who control have limited the number of early voting sites, et cetera.</s>POWERS: Right. Yes, well, I mean, it remains to be seen, but they have done a sort of overt voter suppression effort there. We don't know if that's the reason that we're seeing lower numbers or not, but it's certainly conceivable. Hillary Clinton is underperforming Barack Obama in North Carolina right now. I heard the Clinton campaign talking about how the Latino vote was going to really come out for them, which I'm sure they will, but that's a very small percentage of North Carolina.</s>HAM: Let me jump in with the North Carolina numbers. Actually, overall, in the state...</s>TAPPER: As a North Carolinian.</s>HAM: The hours and the number of sites for early voting were up. They were compressed into the last week for the most part, and they were fewer in the first week. So, that's part of the drop-off. But the actual number is up. Even in the counties that people are complaining about, the number of hours and sites is up over a shorter period of time.</s>TAPPER: A little Tar Heel reality check there. Thank you so much. We're going to take a very quick break. We're still waiting for President Obama to come. Stay with us. We will be right back.