Senator Rand Paul On 2016 Race
HARLOW: At any moment now we are expecting Marco Rubio to take the stage at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference being held today in Maryland. We will bring you his speech live as soon as it gets under way. Following that, the senator heads to his home turf of Florida, later to Puerto Rico to hold rallies in both of those places. And Ted Cruz's campaign does not want to see Marco Rubio sweep his winner-take-all home state with its 99 delegates. They are preparing an aggressive effort to take on Rubio in Florida, as is Donald Trump. Let's discuss it all. Joining me now, Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, and historian and professor of Princeton University, Julian Zelizer. Thank you gentlemen for being with me. Larry, let me begin with you. If Marco Rubio does not take those 99 delegates in Florida, what do you think the path forward looks like for him, because he's only won one state thus far?</s>LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UVA'S CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well, there isn't a path forward if he can't carry his home state. Maybe he'd want to stay in, but I don't think people would take him all that seriously. You have to carry your home state. That's kind of understood in politics.</s>HARLOW: Well, Julian, if you look at John Kasich, right, he's admitted, he said if I don't take Ohio, basically, there's no path forward for me. He says he'll take Ohio. He says that will mean a brokered convention. If you look at latest Quinnipiac polling that's less than two weeks old it shows Trump pretty widely ahead of Kasich in Ohio. How likely do you think it is Kasich takes olio?</s>JULIAN ZELIZER, HISTORY AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS PROFESSOR: I think right now it's not likely. So, this has to change pretty dramatically. Look, part of this is you have to win your home state, and part of it is Donald Trump has the numbers. And if he takes Florida and Ohio, talk of a brokered convention is gone. So, he has to really do a lot of work, as do other Republicans, to cut into Trump's polling there.</s>HARLOW: So, fascinating piece, guys. I'm sure you both read it, by Peggy Noonan in the "Wall Street Journal," the column yesterday talking about the party as a whole. I want to read part of it, talking about the Republican Party as it stands right now, "I think we are seeing a great political party shatter before our eyes. I'm not sure I see a way around or through it." She argues that at this time with Trump, she says it's different than 1976 or '64 with Goldwater, and here's why. She writes this, she says, "Those battles in the past were over conservatism and actual political philosophy." Julian, to you first, why is it so different this time?</s>ZELIZER: Well, it is true that Barry Goldwater argued that there had to be this coherent, philosophical shift to the right, and most of the party wasn't there, where Donald Trump is all over the place. A lot of what he's about is style, mood and approach. That said, we should remember, after 1964, Republicans were devastated. They thought they would never get back in the White House again. And just remember, in 1968, that's exactly what Richard Nixon did.</s>HARLOW: Yes. All right, I want you both to stand by. We have something that just came in to us, so stay with me, Larry and Julian. I want to go to Brian Todd, live in Bowling Green, Kentucky. You are joined by former GOP presidential candidate, Rand Paul. We want to hear from him. What does he think of everything now?</s>TODD: I'm going to ask him that very question, Poppy. Actually, Senator Paul is the reason this is even happening today, the reason this is so energetic. Senator Paul really was instrumental in getting this caucus moved to March 5th. Senator Paul, what do you think of this? Great turnout. Are you surprised?</s>SENATOR RAND PAUL (R), KENTUCKY: You know, a little bit. We're excited about it, though. This is the first time that my vote or any Kentucky Republican's vote will really count because we're right in the middle of the election. Usually we don't vote until late May, and a lot of times, the election seems to be over. But it's also exciting because we have local candidates out campaigning, everybody's out here shaking hands. So, it's kind of more of an old-fashioned feel to politics.</s>TODD: We have to tell viewers, you paid for this because you had to move your presidential ballot to this date, even though you've dropped out of the race. Were you worried going in, because there were maybe some reports that maybe the word wasn't going on, that it may not have great turnout? Not the case here, but were you worried?</s>PAUL: You know, we didn't know what to think, but I think it is exciting, and I think a lot of people in some ways, we might get a better turnout because we're actually relevant. We're right in the middle of a race that is not yet decided. The other thing about Kentucky is it hasn't been polled very much so I think it's very uncertain who's going to win.</s>TODD: Brings me to my logical next question. Senator Paul has not cast his ballot yet? Senator Paul, can you tell us who you're going to vote for?</s>PAUL: You know, I am not going to endorse anybody in the race. I'll keep that private, but I am excited that the caucus looks to be a success. I'm also excited that it's energizing the Republican Party. We're hoping to take over the state house in Kentucky. We haven't held the state house since 1922, I believe. So, this would be an energizing event f| us to try to take over the state house. We have four special elections on March 8th. So, on Tuesday, we're going to get a chance to take this energy and transform it into taking over our state house.</s>TODD: I'll try to narrow it down. Are you going to vote for one of the two senators who are at the top of the ballot?</s>PAUL: You know, I'm going stay out of it. I want to let Kentucky Republicans make their decision. I've said my piece. I had a few disagreements with many of the people on the stage. And I think that adds to the debate and I think I did my job and now sort of my job is to try to bring everybody together and not continue to divide it up.</s>TODD: Senator Paul, thank you very much for joining us. Great luck today and congratulations on the turnout.</s>PAUL: Thank you.</s>TODD: Thank you. Can't blame a guy for trying. He's not going to tip his hand, Poppy, as to who he's voting for, but he is here and he is the reason that this has been moved to this day, because he could not be on two ballots at once.</s>HARLOW: Right.</s>TODD: He's still going to be on the Senate ballot running for re- election to the Senate in May, but they moved it up to March 5th because he wanted to be on the presidential ballot. He's dropped out, but it's still, as Senator Paul pointed out, that still makes Kentucky very relevant in this race.</s>HARLOW: It certainly does. Ever the dogged journalist, trying to ask him each and every way. Brian Todd, thank you for that. I want to get back to Julian Zelizer and Larry Sabato for their take. Larry, let me go to you. I think one thing we did glean even though we don't who he is going to vote for and he is not endorsing. One thing we did glean is he talked he used the word consolidate, consolidation and that's different than the strategy that Mitt Romney's putting forth and some of the others are putting forth, which is, you know, go hard for Rubio, Cruz and Kasich, and then the numbers won't add up for Donald Trump.</s>SABATO: Yes, that's true, Poppy, but there's a reason why. Mitt Romney's not on the ballot this year. And despite all the rumors, I don't think he's going to be, as the surprise nominee of the Republican Party. But Rand Paul is on the ballot in November for re-election in Kentucky. So, it is very much in his interests, first of all, not to take sides, at least not right now. And second, to encourage party unity, because otherwise, he could suffer at the polls.</s>HARLOW: But at the same time, Julian, there has been the talk of sort of the down-ticket consequences if Trump is the nominee. That's what the establishment is saying, who doesn't like him, right? So, when you look at someone who is on the ballot, you know, for Senate again -- Rand Paul -- what did you make of what he said on that front?</s>ZELIZER: Yes, look, obviously, he and others are very fearful about what's the Trump effect on the congressional races? And that goes back to '64, you know --</s>HARLOW: Right.</s>ZELIZER: -- do Republicans get wiped out? I'm not sure that's true. You know, Trump is eliciting a lot of excitement with white voters, many of whom don't have college educations. And you could imagine this turning kind of excitement being translated into some congressional races. But Paul's smart. Why would you want to put yourself out there right now, like Romney did, when it's unclear how this is going to unfold?</s>HARLOW: I want to talk to you gentlemen about the dramatic shift we saw from Donald Trump yesterday in terms of his position on torture, frankly. He walked back comments that he had previously made that we should kill -- the U.S. military should kill families of terrorists, that we should go beyond waterboarding. He talked about that in this statement, sort of reversing course, saying I will not order our military or other officials to violate those laws and will seek their advice on such matters. He went on. Larry, to you, does the electorate in a general election care that that is a complete reversal of stance?</s>SABATO: Well, in a general election, it might matter more, although he did change in the direction of the law, so let's give him credit for that.</s>HARLOW: Right.</s>SABATO: In a party primary, given the strength, Poppy, that he has with his backers, I don't think it would have mattered one way or the other. He'd never even addressed it again, but I think he did the right thing for the general election, should he be the Republican nominee or an independent candidate.</s>WHITFIELD: All right, Julian, thank you. Larry Sabato, thank you. You will be back with us, so stand by. We're going to take a quick break. We're back on the other side.