Kasich on Voting for Biden: Party Takes Second Place to Responsibility
CUOMO: The latest CNN poll shows this race is far from over. Tight, just 4 points difference, which is exactly the margin of error. What does that mean? Well, it means it could be neck and neck. And why wouldn't it be? We talk about polls being a snapshot. The question is what this picture tells us. And that's why we have the wizard of odds. We pulled away his blankie, took his thumb out of the mouth and said, Get up and do some TV. And here he is. Let me ask you. You know, we've had this discussion many times, but to fill in our brothers and sisters who are up late or on the West Coast, my sentiment is, Boy, the Democrats should be nervous if, after months of ignoring a pandemic, this sitting president is just a few points away from Joe Biden. Scary times. What do you see, Wiz?</s>HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: Well, I would say your face is scarier than any poll number, but look, here's the deal, right? Look, if you look at the average of polls, and that's the thing I always stress, right, the average of polls, and we have the CNN poll of polls which is essentially that, right? It shows that Joe Biden has a nine-point edge. And when you have a nine-point edge and you have a margin of error surrounding the polls, sometimes you'll come in on the lower end -- you know, a CNN poll at 4 points. Sometimes you might come at the higher end -- ABC News/"Washington Post" poll. That was at 12-point edge for Joe Biden. And that doesn't mean that any of the polls are wrong. It just means that you're going to have this range. I will say that there has been some slight tightening over the last month, and that is consistent with the CNN poll showing some tightening. But of course, the one other thing I will point out which gets the point, perhaps, of why this race is a little bit tighter than the national polls would indicate is the Electoral College. Right? That's the name of the game that really matters in this situation.</s>CUOMO: Took you 55 seconds, but you got to the only point of substance that you've made thus far. It's all about the Electoral College. It's all about the swing states. And in fact, it's really all about a handful of counties within the swing states. So let's go state by state. What is the story you see here?</s>ENTEN: Yes. This, I think, is rather important, right? If you look at the nationwide average, it's Biden by 9, right? But then you look at Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona. These are the five closest states that Trump won in 2016, and Biden needs to win at least two of them. And if he doesn't win Florida, he needs to win at least three of them. And what you see right now is a state like Wisconsin, Florida, those are the two most important states, because he needs to win one -- Michigan and Pennsylvania together don't add up to enough electoral votes. So the race nationally, in my mind, is actually closer to, say, a six- point margin then necessarily the nine-point margin. And so in that way, the CNN poll is generally representative of the fact that I do think that this race is closer than folks think it might be, just based upon the national polls.</s>CUOMO: Well, I'm glad you've come around to that way of thinking, Harry Enten. It's better late than never. The question is why is it so close? What do you see within what we call in the business the cross tabs? Looking at the specifics of the polls and different demographic groups. Why is it as close as it is right now?</s>ENTEN: I think there are a few reasons why it's as close as it is. No. 1, you have this fight within white voters, right, between those with a college degree and those without a college degree. Those with a college degree overwhelming for Biden, those without overwhelmingly for Trump, although perhaps by not the same margin as they were four years ago. And the other thing that I think is important to point out is that non-white voters, specifically African-Americans, while they're giving Biden a substantial margin at this point, it's not the same margin that Hillary Clinton was earning four years ago, and I think that's going to be something to watch as the convention sort of unfolds, whether or not Biden tries to bring back these traditionally Democratic voters. But the other thing I'll note, just Chris, is that Joe Biden is in a much better position than Hillary Clinton was four years ago at this point, right? He is still way out ahead, 9 points versus she was only up by 4. And more than that, he's over 50 percent. So he is in a much better shape than, say, Clinton was four years ago.</s>CUOMO: Well, what's up with the minority vote? Why would they be for Trump?</s>ENTEN: I think that there are a few things, not the least of which is that non-white voters overall tend to be lower educated as a percentage, and that, of course, is playing a big role in our politics right now, is education is a big deal. And more than that, younger black voters who were so strongly for Barack Obama in 2012, specifically younger black male voters, are not necessarily on board with Biden at this particular point. And you saw that throughout the primary, right, where Biden was running up these huge margins among older African-Americans, while actually, Bernie Sanders was winning those under the age of 30.</s>CUOMO: Strong point. Preconvention margins, do we have that to put in? And this is the -- the context is incumbents who were in trouble, how they looked in the conventions and how that carried through to the election. Can we put that up, Vaughn (ph), for Harry to explain it to us? Tell us the story of this.</s>ENTEN: Yes, I think that this is also key, right? This is so odd, the fact that you have an incumbent who is trailing by more than, say, a few points. There have only been three dating back to 1940, and the three of them are on your screen right now: Carter, Ford and Truman. Two of those guys lost. Truman came all the way back and won, but interestingly enough with the Ford notion right there, right, Ford actually was able to close the gap. So to me, look, Trump at this point is the underdog. I think we have to nail that in. But this race is far from over, as these poll numbers to election results indicate.</s>CUOMO: D. Lemon, come in here for a second and talk at Harry Enten.</s>LEMON: What do you want to know?</s>CUOMO: What do you think about Ford, Carter, Truman? You were alive for all those presidencies. What do you think is different today with Trump? Why might he be a different story than they?</s>LEMON: I know you're joking, but the only one I wasn't alive for was Truman. Why might Trump be a different story in what sense, you mean, then today? What do you mean?</s>CUOMO: I don't think it's the right way to compare it. Harry's right to give us the historical perspective. But we are in a different place than we were as a country in any of those elections. Although Truman is probably the best comp. You did have a postwar society there that was trying to figure out who it was and where it was coming, and he wound up making a comeback in that election. But we weren't where we are right now, Don, in terms of the kind of cultural cataclysm we're dealing with right now. A president bringing us to each other's faces, creating conflict and becoming an agent of conflict. Carter never did that, and frankly, Ford never did that.</s>LEMON: Well, not in -- not in the way that we are now. But we were pretty divided when -- when Bill Clinton ran for president. And I think this is the first time that the polling for an incumbent has been pretty much the same as it was, or similar -- and Harry can correct me if I'm wrong -- as it was with Bill Clinton and George Bush. And so I think that I -- I would not underestimate this president. Certainly, you can't compare George Bush, the first George Bush and Donald Trump in the way that they conducted themselves. The first was a very classy man, mostly a traditional politician and didn't, you know, demonize people in the way that this president does. And polarize to the extent, even, you know, all elections are polarizing. But I do think that there is a good comparison between Bill Clinton and -- and George Bush in this one, when you look at President Trump's polling. And I have to agree with Harry. I do think that our -- our polling may be a bit of an outlier when you look at all of the polls together. But I still think, whether you are Donald Trump or you are Joe Biden, you need to run as if you're 20 points behind in this race. Because you can -- you know, one never knows. But I do have to say, in this particular race, Chris, I do not think you should underestimate the dislike of this particular president. People going out to vote, not necessarily for Joe Biden but against Donald Trump, considering the situation that we're in now with the intersection of race, COVID and politics. I think many more people are going to be voting, at least Democrats, against Donald Trump rather than for Joe Biden.</s>CUOMO: Harry agrees with. He said it to me many times. But you both also know elections are more often about what people are for than what they're against. But we'll see. This is an unusual time.</s>LEMON: Uh-oh. Harry --</s>CUOMO: You can make funny -- he can make faces. I'm just saying, if you look at the elections where we've had pivot points, generally, people find a reason to believe in somebody that they believe is transcendent; it's going to take them to a different place, captures their emotion.</s>LEMON: But Chris, you can't have it both ways. You can't say that we can't look at this -- this is a different time, right? You can't say this is a different time, but yet we should be looking at it traditionally.</s>CUOMO: That's true.</s>ENTEN: It's a referendum. It's a referendum, gentlemen. It's a referendum.</s>CUOMO: If it's a referendum, then why is it so close? If it's a referendum.</s>ENTEN: It's not that close. You just saw it on the slide right there. He's doing worse than most -- most of the presidents.</s>CUOMO: Yelling doesn't make your point better.</s>LEMON: An average -- Chris, look.</s>CUOMO: Go ahead.</s>LEMON: He's talking about an average of the polling, right? I mean, listen, yes, we have great pollsters, but we're also not the only game in town.</s>CUOMO: Biden's not up double digits in any --</s>ENTEN: There it is.</s>LEMON: -- news organizations.</s>CUOMO: I know, this is the poll of polls, but he's not up 10 points in any state that mattresses. That's all I'm saying. This president has had the worst six months I've ever seen, and he's still within striking distance. I've got to go.</s>LEMON: That's true.</s>CUOMO: I've got to go.</s>LEMON: Let him finish his point first and then go. What did you want to say, Harry?</s>ENTEN: Look, all I'll say is the last president who was facing multiple crises, Jimmy Carter, who was also facing a very rough six months, ended up losing by 10. And that to me is a pretty good analogy for this election. Will it turn out the same way? I don't know, but there it is in the history books.</s>LEMON: What about my Clinton point?</s>CUOMO: It wasn't that good. In fact, it made no sense in context.</s>ENTEN: I loved that Clinton point, because it's the last president who was in as much trouble with his net approval rating as low as Trump's is at this point. So I think it was pretty good, Don. Chris, you can go to bed right now. I'll stay on with Don and do the rest of the hours.</s>CUOMO: It's apples -- it's apples to lemons. It's apples to lemons. Clinton was in a totally different situation then Trump is in right now. But I appreciate both of your take. It's time for commercial. We'll be right back.