Cruz Gains Ground in New CNN Poll.
BOLDUAN: Tonight, Ted Cruz is gaining ground. A new CNN poll showing the Republican candidate, he is making a move. Listen.</s>SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, a few days ago Donald Trump said publicly that he could see this race coming down to a two-person race and I think that's entirely possible.</s>BOLDUAN: So is this now a two-man race on the Republican side? Sunlen Serfaty is OUTFRONT. So, Sunlen, you've been on the road with the Cruz campaign this week. It almost seems like Ted Cruz is wishing that it has become a two-man race but is that now where they are also focusing their campaign strategy?</s>SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kate, I think for the Cruz campaign, framing this race as this two-man showdown really plays into the certain narrative that they really want right now, especially as they try to consolidate Conservatives and Evangelical Republicans. What it does is it presents Cruz as alternatives to Trump and it outplays Rubio's positioning the race and that really is the key here. Rubio is a candidate the Cruz campaign has always been really focused on and they still very much are but this declaration that it's a two- person race really allows them to project all of that without really having a say at all.</s>BOLDUAN: That's exactly right. That's exactly what those campaigns are about. Cruz is clearly happy about the polls, CNN polls out but also he is furious about a very different issue on the campaign right now. A campaign trail. A Washington Post cartoon mocking Cruz for using his daughters as political props. There is the cartoon right there. How has Cruz responded?</s>SERFATY: That's right. Well, he's been out on the campaign trail all day today in Oklahoma really blasting "The Washington Post" bringing it up multiple times, this cartoon depicting his children as monkeys and you hear him saying that, he keeps saying that kids are usually off limits on campaigns and election cycles and many candidates coming to his defense today. And he just point blank said, keep my kids out of it. Now, "The Washington Post" they have pulled down that cartoon in an editorial posting acknowledging really that they should have never posted it in the first place. But, interestingly enough, Ted Cruz is now fundraising off of this controversy, including having an image. You see it right there on the screen. That's his fundraising e-mail. Using the cartoon and saying in that pitch, the liberal media has hit a new low with the tasteless attack on his kids and their goal, Kate, is to raise $1 million in the next 24 hours.</s>BOLDUAN: We'll see how that turns out. Sunlen, great to see you. Thanks so much.</s>SERFATY: Thanks.</s>BOLDUAN: Let's talk much more about that. OUTFRONT tonight, Eric Fehrnstrom, he was a senior adviser to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, and Amanda Carpenter, she's a former communications director for Senator Ted Cruz. Eric, it's great to see you. I want to get to that cartoon in just a bit. But first, we have to talk about the polls out today. Yes, Cruz is on the rise but you cannot deny that Mr. Trump has a huge lead here. Just look at these numbers. More than double Cruz. But do you think the poll -- you actually think the polls are under-representing Trump's support right now? Explain, please.</s>ERIC FEHRNSTROM, FORMER SENIOR ADVISER, 2012 ROMNEY PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Well, it's true, Kate. As amazing as it sounds, Trump's commanding lead. It's possible that we're still undercounting his support. And the reason for that is, there are two factors. One is something that the statisticians call it social desirability bias. And that's simply a recognition that people lie. And the more uncomfortable they are with the question being asked, the more likely they are to lie in response and we have evidence out of Europe that shows anti-immigration candidates doing much better in the more anonymous online and automated polling than they do in the live interviewing and polling. And I think the second factor that may be under-representing Trump's support is that he's bringing a lot of new voters into the Republican Party -- voters who haven't previously participated in the primary or caucus system.</s>BOLDUAN: Uh-huh.</s>FEHRNSTROM: And because of that, they are being excluded from these likely voter screens that pollsters use. Now, it's possible these voters won't show up on a cold, snowy day.</s>BOLDUAN: Exactly. In Iowa for a long caucus. That's right.</s>FEHRNSTROM: But I think it's also true that they are being undercounted.</s>BOLDUAN: Very interesting. Amanda, you and I have talked about this concept of not believing in the polls right now. If this is true, does that spell trouble for Ted Cruz?</s>AMANDA CARPETNER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, listen, I agree and disagree with Eric. In a sense, I think that Trump's support is definitely being overcounted. I think he has complete control, you know, of the Twitter and the TV media in a way that gives him a lot more standing nationally. I also agree with Eric that he is speaking to a different type of voter. When he goes to Michigan, I don't think he's speaking to traditional Republican audiences. I think he's addressing blue collar workers who have been abandoned by the Democratic Party. All that said, I don't think his support translates into winning Iowa, to winning New Hampshire, to winning South Carolina. So, I think he's going to have trouble in that three-state stampede but that doesn't mean he doesn't have national attention from a new type of voter like Eric mentioned.</s>BOLDUAN: Yes. And is this really the two-man race that Ted Cruz really wants it to be right now? That's to be debated but there's still lots of time to go for that to change. I do want to ask you, though, Eric -- we got late news this evening that the Carson campaign -- Ben Carson's campaign is actually considering a staff shakeup in light of his falling poll numbers. He's now tied in our latest poll, a distant third at 10 percent. The campaign says they are not letting anyone go, but you have been around this before. What does this tell you?</s>FEHRNSTROM: Well, Ben Carson has been doing the slow fade in the polling ever since Paris and San Bernardino and the resulting doubts about his ability to handle our nation's foreign policy. That's not only a problem for him, by the way. It's a problem for the establishment candidates because they needed two things to happen in this race for them to make a credible challenge to Donald Trump. One is the field needed to thin out and the second was Carson needed to remain strong so he could divide that outsider vote. Neither has happened. And so I can only imagine the panic that they must be feeling in the Ben Carson campaign as they try to right this ship. They thought maybe sending him on a world tour to Israel and Africa would fix it, but that's been canceled. They seem a little bit adrift right now. They only have 40 days to get their act together before Iowa caucus.</s>BOLDUAN: Yes.</s>FEHRNSTROM: So, every moment counts.</s>BOLDUAN: Jeb Bush, though, would be happy to take over that 10 percent right now in these national polls. That's for sure. Amanda, I have to get your take, though, on what is going on with -- as Sunlen was explaining with this cartoon, back to this cartoon, mocking Ted Cruz for using his daughters as political props. That's the cartoon. We all know that kids are off limits and that cuts across party lines, young children in campaigns. But Ted Cruz, he's now fundraising off of it. He's even putting that cartoon that he called sickening in the fundraising e-mail. Does he, on some level, I don't know, lose the moral high ground for trying to raise money off of it?</s>CARPENTER: I don't think so. I think when something like this happens and it's so outrageous, you have every right to tell your supporters, this is what my campaign is dealing with, this is why I need more resources. And, listen, fundraising e-mails are one of the best forms of communication that a candidate has. Frankly, I think it would be a little bit weird if he didn't talk to his supporters about it because it was such a firestorm overnight last night I was sitting on Twitter, and the feed was completely in favor of Cruz. So, I think he needed to talk about it. He needs to say, this is what I'm up against, and, hey, he won this. He had a tweet that I think was very civil, very restrained and he was in the right. He won, took it down. So, yes, I would think it's OK to talk to your supporters about that.</s>BOLDUAN: Yes, no other candidates going to be on the other side of that argument, putting kids on the campaign and taking them on. Great to see you, guys. Thanks so much.</s>CARPENTER: Thanks.</s>FEHRNSTROM: Thank you.</s>BOLDUAN: Tomorrow, big programming note: Bernie Sanders, he's going to be on NEW DAY to weigh in on Hillary Clinton. That starts, of course, at 6:00 a.m. Eastern, right here on CNN. OUTFRONT still, breaking news. 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