Gans: Nothing in This Elections Should Turn 40-Year Trend of Declining Turnout
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Despite millions of dollars spent in get-out-the-vote campaigns across the country, and a close presidential race, many political observers expect relatively low voter turnout today. To talk about turnout and its impact on the presidential race is Curtis Gans. He is a voter turnout analyst. And Mr. Gans, we thank you for coming back. We talked with you I believe it was last week about this. I don't know if you were able to hear of the comments that we've gotten from people with the campaigns. They were saying that they believe that voter turnout is going to be higher this time around than '96. You don't believe so.</s>CURTIS GANS, VOTER TURNOUT ANALYST: The answer is, you know, nobody knows. We have this one day every two years when -- and I think it's a wonderful thing -- when the American people will tell their story. All of us so-called experts are going to be on the sidelines.</s>HARRIS: All right, so from where you have been, what are you seeing right now?</s>GANS: You can't see anything. Somewhere around 11:00 tonight, we will be count votes against previous years' votes. All the long- term indicators point to lower turnout. But we do have this incredibly close race, and millions of dollars being spent on get-out- the-vote activities. I wouldn't be shocked if turnout went up 2 percentage points, I wouldn't be shocked if it went down 2 percentage points. We are getting reports from California's secretary of state that he expects the highest turnout in 20 years. We are getting reports from the Georgia election officials that they are likely to have the lowest turnout since the Voting Right Act. Nobody really knows. It is right now in the hands of the people.</s>HARRIS: Well you said 2 percent either way. Is that considered to be a large margin or a large break either way?</s>GANS: No, it is not a large break. I mean, we have had a 40- year trend of declining turnout, and by in large, unless turnout really surges, nothing in this election is changing that. Most people -- we have voter interest levels in the polls go at about the level of '96 and '88, which were our lowest turnouts, you know, since 1924. We have the lowest viewership of debates and the conventions. We have a South, which used to have -- be moving up in turnout, which is trending lower. All these indicators tend to point to lower turnout, but we do have this incredibly tight race. And maybe toward the end, it piqued voter interest, and maybe these mobilization activities in the 17 battleground states will have an effect on turnout.</s>HARRIS: Let me ask you about the weather because, when we talked last week, you were saying that the Democrats are usually hurt when the weather is bad. From what we've seen in our reports this morning, of the seven or so key battleground states, it looks like weather is going to bad in five or six of them. Some of these states, though, are in the north. Do you think that theory is going to hold true there, even though these folks are a little hardier than folks down South are, and are more used to inclement weather?</s>GANS: Actually I didn't put forward that thesis. By in large, I don't think weather has a lot to do with it, if people are motivated. In 1992, when people were motivated, people in Georgia spent two hours in the rain on line waiting to vote. The only place that I think weather will have an effect is in the Dakotas, where you are going to have heavy snow. By in large, if people want to vote, they will brave the rain. And I don't think it is going to have an effect either on turnout or on partnership, except in North and South Dakota.</s>HARRIS: All right, we will see how things turnout. I apologize if I got your interview mixed up with another one. But, as you can imagine, we've done tons of these discussions about this kind of...</s>GANS: I know.</s>HARRIS: Well, listen, thanks much for your time this morning, Mr. Gans, hope to talk to you again later on.</s>GANS: You're welcome.