Various Factors That Could Play into Possible Surrender of Kandahar
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: CNN military analyst General Don Shepperd joins me now from Washington. General, you've been following this campaign since the very beginning. Does the possibility of a surrender at Kandahar make it more likely, or did it happen more quickly than the military expected?</s>MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), U.S. AIR FORCE, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, we had an indication of this a couple of days ago, Paula, when Hamid Karzai, the Pashtun leader coming in from the north reportedly said that Kandahar would fall just like Konduz, through a negotiated settlement rather than fighting. Now the elements of that are he's probably very much in favor of taking the city with negotiations because it's a city and population about the size of New Orleans and you can imagine how difficult it would be to go house to house and all the ugly things that go with city fighting. So it's very likely he'd like to take it to negotiations. On the other hand, the U.S. interest is that Omar does not escape and the al Qaeda do not escape. It could be that Karzai would be willing to let them escape in exchange for the city and the U.S. not. And then we would have some type of political solution here to work with and it could be difficult.</s>ZAHN: I know Bob Franken reported from the Pentagon a little bit earlier this morning that U.S. administration officials are viewing this report with perhaps some deal of skepticism. They've said in the past they've found these Islamic Press reports semi-reliable, Allen Pizzey reporting on the ground from Kandahar that the U.S. military operation proceeds as if this had not been confirmed.</s>SHEPPERD: Yes.</s>ZAHN: Give us your insights into that.</s>SHEPPERD: Sure. Obviously, you're going to proceed that way. Again, Mullah Omar and the al Qaeda and the remaining Taliban fighters in Kandahar are in a world of hurt. You've got Hamid Karzai coming in with increasing forces from the north. You've got Gul Agha and his Pashtun tribes coming in from the south. You've got the marines to the southwest. You've got the Northern Alliance up in Kabul to the northeast. He has no place to go. So again, it's a difficult situation, but the other thing is the al Qaeda fighters know what happened in Mazir-i-Sharif and Konduz and it may be that no matter who wants to negotiate, they fight to the end. Lots to be decided and real early in this reporting of this settlement, Paula.</s>ZAHN: So in this murky period of time where we can't really confirm these reports are true, what remains the mission of the marines on the ground there?</s>SHEPPERD: It appears the marines are in a blocking position. They're gradually expanding their patrols. They're trying to stop supplies and people from flowing into and out of Kandahar area. They also are in position to take part should an assault take place on Kandahar. They're also in a position as a forward operating base to operate against the remaining al Qaeda cells and then search for bin Laden in the area down there, reportedly the area of Marouf (ph) to the southeast of Kandahar. So they're doing what the marines were brought there to do, which is increase the pressure on the remaining Taliban and al Qaeda and provide General Franks with options.</s>ZAHN: I need a quick yes or no here. Essentially what you're saying, if I read between the lines then, is even if Kandahar falls, the U.S. can't declare this a success until they've gone on and either gotten Osama bin Laden or the other leaders of the al Qaeda movement?</s>SHEPPERD: Absolutely not. We need al Qaeda cells. We need bin Laden. We'd like to have Mullah Omar. Lots left to be done to pacify the country and get all that done, Paula.</s>ZAHN: You can take a cue there. General Don Shepperd, thank you very much for your insights this morning. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com