Clinton and Obama on the Offensive in Texas and Ohio
PILGRIM: The Texas primary is a must-win for Hillary Clinton, according to analysts and even her own camp. But the Texas primary process has some bizarre twists and turns that may benefit Barack Obama. Bill Schneider reports -- Bill.</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Kitty, here in Texas they have a unique system for picking delegates. I call it the Tex-Mex plan.</s>SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Tex-Mex restaurants have these things call combination plates, where you get a little bit of this and a little of that. Same way Democrats pick delegates in Texas.</s>PAUL BUNKA, "TEXAS MONTHLY": We have 126 by election, 67 by caucus, and 35 more are what they call P-L-E-Os, which are party leaders and elected officials.</s>SCHNEIDER: The 37 page menu, officially called the Texas Delegate Selection Plan explains how it works. First, there's a primary, the results are determined by state senate district. Simple, not so much.</s>BUNKA: The senatorial districts do not all have the same number of delegates chosen. The ones with big Democratic turnouts get up to eight and the small ones can be as low as two.</s>SCHNEIDER: Hillary Clinton is expected to do well in low turnout Latino districts. Those districts elect fewer delegates than high turnout African-American districts, where Barack Obama is likely to be strong. But the primary is only the first step.</s>WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Texas is the only place in America where you can vote twice in the same election without going to jail.</s>SCHNEIDER: On primary night, voters are supposed to go to precinct caucuses, where they can vote again to select more delegates.</s>BUNKA: You vote in the primary, but then you have to have the motivation to go back at 7:15 to the site of the primary where your precinct election was held and vote for your candidate. And it may be a long evening.</s>SCHNEIDER: Who runs the caucuses? The guys says if no precinct captain shows up, it's whoever gets there first. Imagine Clinton and Obama voters rushing to grab control. It's enough to give you the same thing you could get from a combination play. Heartburn.</s>SCHNEIDER: And one more thing. In section one, part B, paragraph three, item a of Texas's delegate selection plan, it says, "participation in Texas's delegate selection process is open to all voters who wish to participate as Democrats, and that includes independents, who tend to like Barack Obama, and Republican s, who may want to vote to stop Hillary Clinton -- Kitty.</s>PILGRIM: Bill, I'm glad you sorted that out for us. Because it is complicated. But could it all in end in Texas? I guess that's the question.</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, the idea. Texas could be the end game. Hillary Clinton's own husband and other advisers say she has to win Texas and Ohio. If she does, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't win them both, she won't be the nominee. What happens if she wins, but by narrow margins? She'll be behind in delegates. If that happens, she will find it, I think, useful to trying to on, because she'll claim, we've stopped Barack Obama's momentum. But then she has to catch up in delegates. But if she loses Texas, it's going to be tough -- Kitty.</s>PILGRIM: Thanks very much. Bill Schneider. Thanks, Bill. Now, for more about the upcoming Texas primary, also about last night's Democratic debate, and all the week's political news, we have three of the smartest political minds in the country. Pulitzer Prize winning columnist for the "New York Daily News" and LOU DOBBS TONIGHT contributor, Michael Goodwin. Syndicated columnist, and LOUD DOBBS TONIGHT contributor, Miguel Perez, and New York Bureau Chief for the "Washington Post," Keith Richburg. And thank you all for being here. You know, we just went through this highly complicated. I hope you followed this. Let's look at the poll numbers for Texas. I think they would be very instructive. And it looks pretty much like a dead heat. We have Clinton at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent. Miguel, give me your quick answer on that.</s>MIGUEL PEREZ, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: I think Obama has the momentum. I think he's going to surprise everybody in Texas. I think that the Hispanic vote that everybody's attributing -- or assuming is going to the Clintons, I think has been shifting gradually toward Obama and I think he's going to surprise everybody in Texas.</s>PILGRIM: A big race, 193 delegates. Michael.</s>MICHAEL GOODWIN, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Right. Well, there has been a pattern throughout the last group, 10 states or so, where she tends to have a lead, and then he wins before that and the polls begin to shift as the campaign moves to that state. We've already seen some of that in Texas. She had a 10-point lead, at one point, maybe more than that, a couple weeks ago, it was ten points. Now it's tied. I didn't think he did very well in the debate last night, so I suspect that will help him as well.</s>PILGRIM: We'll get to the debate in a second, Keith.</s>KEITH RICHBURG, "WASHINGTON POST": I agree with that. That "Washington Post-ABC" poll had some ominous news for Hillary Clinton just because she was ahead by double digits a couple of weeks ago and now they're essentially tied.</s>PILGRIM: What about this less than five percent gain, if she's less than five percent win?</s>RICHBURG: That's the huge problem for her. Even if she wins, you know, by a narrow margin, she would have to win by a landslide blowout to accumulate enough delegates to overtake him. So, even winning for her, although, you know, it gives her bragging rights and she can complain she stopped her momentum, she's going to have to make up something like 150 delegates before she can actually claim that it's a real tie.</s>GOODWIN: Well, also, what's going on in the meantime, because of this momentum, the superdelegates, a few have abandoned her. Some of the undecideds are going with him. So, in the period where she can't do anything, she can't win until March 4th, she's still losing superdelegates during this time.</s>PILGRIM: And there's been a request by her campaign, if you're not --</s>GOODWIN: Right, freeze it.</s>RICHBURG: Freeze it.</s>PILGRIM: Just wait. It seems fair enough, right?</s>GOODWIN: Well, there's no reason why people - I mean, maybe the delegates from Texas. But those who have been in states that have already voted, there's no requirement. That's the whole thing. There are no rules.</s>PILGRIM: That makes good sense. Let's take a look at Ohio while we're at it. Because this is the one-two punch here. And we have Clinton just slightly ahead, 50 percent to Obama's 43 percent. There's a Cleveland debate coming up. Big economy, health care issues. That's very important to this group. Some suggested that this area may be, especially Cleveland, maybe be Hillary country because of sort of the blue-collar workforce there. Next 10 days are key, right, Miguel?</s>PEREZ: Yes, especially in Ohio with the teamsters endorsing Obama. I think that may shift things around toward Obama. But in response to what some of my colleagues here were saying, if Hillary manages to win by a very narrow margin in Ohio and Texas, Obama still has the lead, and then it drags into, probably into the Democratic convention, and that's what they want to try to avoid. They don't want to leave it up to the superdelegates. They don't want to leave it up to Michigan and Florida. Because then it's really going to get ugly.</s>PILGRIM: What's on Ohio. Michael?</s>GOODWIN: Well, I agree with Miguel to the extent that nobody wants to superdelegates to make or break a tie. But in fact they're going to. There's no way either one can get a majority without the superdelegates. So it's just a matter of how and when you get there. Ohio is clearly key. I mean, I think that -- one problem for the party is that it doesn't want to have a nominee who's lost the last couple of primaries, the last big ones, anyway.</s>PILGRIM: Right.</s>GOODWIN: So if she does beat him, then he is wounded in that way and it will keep it going forward. It may not give her the delegates she needs, but they'll have to go forward because the party wants to winner to come into the convention as a winner, not as a wounded leader.</s>PILGRIM: Yes. And this divided convention could be very destructive. Go ahead, Keith.</s>RICHBURG: Absolutely. I was going to say, you know, Ohio has almost the same exact demographics as Wisconsin, except bigger. And that's a state that she should have won. Ohio is a state that she should win. You've got blue-collar workers there. You got unemployment, a lot of union members, a lot of older Democrat there. You know, it just doesn't look good because Wisconsin should have been her state and it wasn't.</s>PILGRIM: The seniors are mostly for Clinton, though?</s>RICHBURG: Well, they should be for her, but we'll have to see if that maintains. She's been able to hold on to them, that's pretty much been the only group she's been able to hold on to. We'll just have to see whether his momentum is now so much with the teamster's endorsements, with all these superdelegates coming out, whether she's going to get swamped on March 4th.</s>PILGRIM: You know, another big issue in Ohio, as we're talking about Ohio's health care issue. Clinton has a slightly more detailed plan. Obama's plan would leave out many Americans. Does she have an advantage over that? Because health care after all is one of the biggest issues, especially in Ohio.</s>PEREZ: I think when they discuss the intricate details of both plans, basically they confuse all Americans. Nobody understands anything about what they're talking about. They really need to clarify things.</s>GOODWIN: Yes. I think there's some weakness in her plan in the sense of a mandate and the issue of how it would be enforced. How you would basically penalize somebody who chooses not to buy health insurance, even if they can't afford to. So, this is a very complicated subject, and its pure complications, as Miguel said, scare people so much, that even if it's a good plan, it might not, you know, get any traction. And don't forget, it still has to get through congress. So, the notion that if we get Hillary we're getting the plan, uh-huh.</s>PILGRIM: It's such an emotional issue.</s>RICHBURG: And just to add on that too. I agree with everything there. You know, the one thing that struck me from that debate last night is they basically agree on health care. They basically agree on immigration. They basically agree on economic policy. She tries to say there are these great fundamental differences between them, there aren't really. So, people are voting, do you like Hillary, or do you like Barack Obama? Who do you think can actually inspire people, implement the change, or is her experience more important? More people aren't going to vote on the health plan.</s>PILGRIM: Let's try to bring back the issues. We'll have a couple more issues when we go -- we'll take a break and have more with our panel coming up. First, "Election Center," coming up at the top of the hour. John Roberts joins us now. John, what are you working on?</s>JOHN ROBERTS, CNN, ANCHOR: Hey, Kitty. Thanks very much. CNN "Election Center" coming up at the top of the hour. We are looking tonight at how the Clinton campaign is spending its money. Nearly $100,000 for sandwiches, $13,000 for pizza, and $5 million for consultants in one month. John McCain may not be having trouble raising money right now, but we'll tell you why he could at least hit a wall when it comes to spending it. See you at the top of the hour with that and other stories on the political front. Kitty.</s>PILGRIM: We look forward to it, John. A reminder now to vote in tonight's poll. Do you find it outrageous that the Consumer Product Safety Commission says communist China is committed to improving the quality of the products it exports? Yes or no. Cast your vote at loudobbs.com and we'll bring you the results in just a few minutes. Also, up next, much more with our panel. So stay with us.