Al Qaeda Regaining Strength?; Democrats Hold Marathon Iraq Debate
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everybody. We start off, though, tonight with this hour's breaking news. An airliner with 140 to 170 people aboard has crashed at an airport in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Reuters is reporting at least one death at this hour. Reports say the plane apparently skidded off the runway, while trying to land in bad weather, crossed a busy highway and hit a building, possibly a gas station. Pictures clearly show there was a fire. The plane belongs to Tam Airlines. It happens to be an Airbus A-320 that was on a flight from Porto Alegre to Sao Paulo. We're keeping an eye on the situation. And, as soon as we have more details, we will bring them to you live. While we wait, we are going to move on to that special topic we're covering all this week. We're counting down to Monday's YouTube debate at the Citadel Military College in Charleston, South Carolina. And I think it is the kind of thing you have never seen before because it is actually your chance to pose a question to the Democratic presidential candidates. As of right now, more than 1,300 questions have been posted on the video-sharing Web site YouTube. We don't know which ones are going to be used in the debate yet, but all this week we're focusing in on some of the most provocative and most important questions coming in. Let's start off with the war on terror tonight. It is the subject of quite a few of the questions we got.</s>YUSUF ZAIM, RESIDENT OF SAINT CHARLES, ILLINOIS: I have served in the United States Marine Corps. I have deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. And I am also an Afghan American. My question is, do you guys have a plan to catch bin Laden? Remember that guy, the guy that murdered over 3,000 Americans?</s>CHARLES, RESIDENT OF ORLANDO, FLORIDA: As the son of two immigrant parents, I understand how beneficial immigration can be for our country. But I also realize that some terrorist organizations are trying to sneak immigrants both legal and illegal into the United States to commit attacks. What will you do as president to prevent terrorists from coming into our borders illegally?</s>JEREMIAH PASTERNAK, RESIDENT OF RYE, NEW HAMPSHIRE: What if we pull all of our troops out of these countries and then a month later there is another attack on the U.S. with numerous casualties that can be linked to al Qaeda, or some other extremist organization based on Iraq, Afghanistan, or Iran? What happens then?</s>DAN VURTON, RESIDENT VIRGINIA: My question to all of the candidates is, what specifically would your presidency do to restore the constitutional protections and freedoms that the current administration has diluted under the guys of fighting terrorism?</s>ZAHN: Not only is the war on terror sparking questions for next Monday's presidential debate; it is making big headlines tonight because of a disturbing new government warning. Justice correspondent Kelli Arena has some of the details for us now. So, Kelli, the government is telling us that al Qaeda has gained strength, it has revamped its recruiting process, recruitment is up. Can you describe to us tonight exactly how it is regrouping?</s>KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Paula, the report says that it has regained a lot of its capability to attack in the United States in the past 18 to 24 months. Now, that's largely due to a safe haven that al Qaeda has been able to establish in Pakistan in the tribal regions. It has replaced a number of key operators with very experienced lieutenants. It is busy recruiting, as you said. And the report also predicts that al Qaeda could get even stronger, Paula, if it capitalizes on its franchise in Iraq. Now al Qaeda there has already said publicly that it wants to attack on U.S. soil. It has already has got a fund-raising network. It is heavily recruiting as well. And of course that theater provides very deadly on-the-job training.</s>ZAHN: So, it clear how much strength it has regained since September 11, 2001?</s>ARENA: Well, no one is willing to measure it by any degree. They say that it is really something they have seen over the past couple of years. It is by no means as strong as it was just before September 11 or at that point, but it is steadily gaining in power.</s>ZAHN: There is an awful lot of debate, too, as we hear these chilling warnings about whether sleeper cells exist in the U.S. already or not. What are your sources telling you?</s>ARENA: Well, the FBI's deputy director, John Pistole, was asked that question directly. And he says no. But there are people in the United States that, we're told, are sympathetic to al Qaeda's cause and that has officials worried, because, as you know, that extremist movement has erupted in a big way over in Europe, Paula. And there are signs that it is growing in the U.S. as well, now, not at the same rate, but it is growing.</s>ZAHN: Of course, the greatest fear, I think, on most Americans' minds is whether al Qaeda, with this new operational capability, has gotten its hands on either biological, chemical or nuclear weapons. What do we know?</s>ARENA: Well, they're certainly trying to do that. But as one official said today, if they had them, they would use them. You know, officials say that they're definitely looking to get their hands on them, but there is absolutely no intelligence, thank God, suggesting that they have.</s>ZAHN: It would strike me with all this chatter that we're learning about that perhaps the Pentagon might have a better idea where Osama bin Laden is. Do they?</s>ARENA: Well, officials are saying more definitively than ever that they believe that he and his number two, Ayman al-Zawahri, are in those tribal areas of Pakistan. Now, they're not sure whether those men move across the border into Afghanistan or how often they move at all. But they're pretty sure that they're in that area of the world.</s>ZAHN: So, in spite of that knowledge, he remains as elusive as ever. Kelli Arena, thanks so much for the update.</s>ARENA: You're welcome.</s>ZAHN: It is time right now to bring in two members of the best political team in TV, CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider and senior political correspondent Candy Crowley. Always good to see the two of you. Candy, I want to start with you tonight. You have got Democrats always fighting this perception somehow that they're weak on terror. Certainly some people think that they don't obviously want anything to do with Iraq right now. But now that this report makes it very clear that Iraq could very well be a staging point for an al Qaeda attack against us, how does that impact Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Any time you have a negative report about the fallout from Iraq, it helps these Democratic candidates who now to a person are against this war and want a deadline for withdrawal and want it to start sooner rather than later. This particular report also helps them because it gets at one of the key arguments that they have been making, and that is, by going into Iraq, the president took his eye off the ball, that being Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. Now having said all that, I would judge that this probably would help Barack Obama a little more than it helps Hillary Clinton. He was against the war from the beginning. She voted for the war. Now, the two positions now of these two people are virtually indistinguishable, but they were different from the start. So, it may help him a little bit more.</s>ZAHN: But couldn't this also cut both ways, Bill Schneider, because if people really believe that Iraq is a central front on the war on terror, and both these candidates Candy was talking about want these troops out as quickly as possible, perhaps as early as six months, couldn't someone out there argue, saying that you're allowing al Qaeda then to reconstitute itself in Iraq?</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look, for Democrats, the argument is the longer the United States stays in Iraq and participates in the civil war, the more dangerous it will be for the United States because our policy in Iraq, our presence there, our participation in this war is serving the goal of recruiting more terrorists to the radical Islamic groups like al Qaeda in Iraq, and that it will be safer for the United States if we pull our troops out of their combat missions as quickly as possible. That's, of course, the opposite of the Republican argument, which is, the sooner we get out, the more dangerous it will be for the United States.</s>ZAHN: Sure. Bill, and I want to put up some of the latest statistics we have from a CNN opinion poll done before this latest intelligence report showing how Democrats rank terrorism on their list of priorities, pretty low when you compare it to Republicans. So, do you see any of the Democratic front-runners shifting their strategy to accommodate this, perhaps to go after maybe independents?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, I think for Democrats the central terrorism issue is the war in Iraq, as Candy said, and how it has distorted our policies of combating terrorism. And, so, what they want to argue is that the best way to fight terrorism is to get our resources out of this civil war in Iraq and devote them to not just in Iraq but all over the world to places where they can do lot more good.</s>ZAHN: And, Candy, final thought on what this all looks like on Monday. Rudy Giuliani, of all the candidates running for president, seems to benefit from the public's acknowledgement, at least so far, that he is the most serious about fighting this war on terror.</s>CROWLEY: Well, the Democrats, I think it will be very interesting during the debate, particularly because, as you mentioned before, they have been trying to do this balancing act, being against the war and being tough on terrorism. You may recall an earlier debate where the candidates were asked, listen, what would you do if there were a terrorist attack in the U.S. and you knew who it was? And Hillary Clinton immediately said I would go after them. Barack Obama gave this sort of around-the-bend speech that didn't get to the central point until a lot later. And she was generally giving kudos. I think what you're going to see is a fight for who can be the toughest as far as homeland security is concerned.</s>ZAHN: Bill Schneider, Candy Crowley, thanks. We're going move on now. And when it comes to the issue of Iraq, we have noticed a surprising trend in the YouTube questions. Many people already assume the U.S. will pull out, and that's raising a whole new set of difficult questions. Let's listen to some of them.</s>MITCH, RESIDENT OF PHILADELPHIA: How do we pull out now? And isn't it our responsibility to get these people up on their feet? Do you leave a newborn baby to take care of himself?</s>ZAHN: So, what is it that the U.S. should do about Iraq? Well, the Senate is starting an all night debate on it right now. These are live pictures coming at you. Will that help anything, even when they roll out the cots tonight and try to force a vote? And then a little bit later on, some pointed questions about immigration reform. I will also be joined by two young people who sent in some questions. You're going to hear their stories about what compelled them to share their questions with the public. We will be right back.