Michigan and Arizona Republican Primaries; Romney Wins Arizona
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: CNN can now project Arizona will go for Mitt Romney. CNN projects that Arizona and its 29 delegates, all of them, will be in Mitt Romney's camp. He will win the election, the primary election in Arizona tonight. We do this projection based on the exit polls that have come in throughout the course of the day. We interviewed people at very important sample precincts throughout the state of Arizona. Arizona, another state going in favor of Mitt Romney, but guess what? We cannot repeat, not, make a projection in Michigan right now. It is way too close, based on all the exit polling numbers that are coming in as well as the actual raw vote that is coming in. Let's take a look at the exit poll numbers that have been coming up in Arizona, first of all. And we have projected that Mitt Romney is this winner. Based on the exit poll information in key precincts, 44 percent for Mitt Romney, 27 percent for Rick Santorum, 16 percent for Newt Gingrich, 11 percent for Ron Paul. This is why we can project Arizona and all of its 29 delegates, winner-take-all in Arizona, will go for Mitt Romney. We cannot make a projection, though, in Michigan right now, 30 delegates at stake, proportionate representation in Michigan. Let's take a look at the vote, though. The raw vote in Michigan right now. Seventeen percent of the vote is now in and Mitt Romney has now take a slight lead over Rick Santorum. Look at this. Forty percent for Mitt Romney, 39 percent for Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney, about almost 2,000 votes ahead of Rick Santorum right now, Ron Paul with 11 percent, Newt Gingrich with 7 percent. It's just gone up a little bit more now. Mitt Romney is almost 4,000 votes ahead of Rick Santorum in Michigan, 68,208 for Mitt Romney, 64,303 for Rick Santorum. It's very, very close. Nineteen percent of the vote now in Michigan. Romney taking a slight lead over Rick Santorum. Let's go over -- let's go over to John King right now. Let's assess Arizona. First of all, 29 delegates, all of them going for Mitt Romney. That is absolutely nothing to sneeze at.</s>JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: Not at all.</s>BLITZER: An important win for Mitt Romney in Arizona.</s>KING: An important win, important win, winner-take-all in Arizona. As you know Michigan is proportional. Let's look first at why we're so certain to make this call for Mitt Romney in Arizona. Then we'll look at why Michigan is so close. The number one issue for Arizona Republicans today, Wolf, 48 percent, nearly half of the voters in this primary say the economy was the issue number one, and a pretty significant lead, a 17 percent edge for Governor Romney over Rick Santorum. And second place at the top issue. He win most of the votes, you're on your path to a good night. Let's slide over. What else mattered in Arizona, electability. Thirty-eight percent of the voters, 38 percent say can defeat Barack Obama in November. The president, trying to defeat the incumbent president. And look at this right here, 53 percent, a majority of the voters who thought electability was the big issue went for Governor Romney. Another reason he is our winner tonight in Arizona. Let's look at the ideology here. This is interesting, 38 percent, just ahead of somewhat conservative, 38 percent said they're very conservative voting in Arizona, and this is interesting. If you look at it, Senator Santorum, 38 percent, Romney, 38 percent. Santorum needs to do better to win a state among very conservative voters. Governor Romney splitting the difference there. Part of his path to victory. Why? Because among the 37 percent who say they're somewhat conservative, a big win for Governor Romney there. He also won among those who describe themselves as moderate. That's why he's on his way to an issue. Now Arizona in the Romney camp, winner-take-all, Michigan, a roller coaster, Governor Romney now, 4500 votes ahead, with almost 20 percent of the vote in. Why is this one so close? The economy is issue number one in Michigan. But Wolf, we're going to pull this up just to show you, 45 percent, Governor Romney winning, he's getting a pretty good margin over Senator Santorum among those who say the economy is the tough issue. But you do find some weaknesses for Governor Romney, if you look elsewhere. This is very interesting here. Among very conservative voters in Michigan, that's 30 percent of the electorate, you pop this up right now, Senator Santorum getting 50 percent, 50 percent for Senator Santorum among the very conservative voters. Governor Romney getting just 35 percent. Remember, they split this vote in the state of Arizona, Governor Romney wins, Santorum with an advantage here. That's one of the reasons we're going to be counting votes. Among those who describe themselves as somewhat conservative, though, that's 31 percent of the electorate, here you see Governor Romney with an edge. So you have an ideological strain in the state of Michigan right now, what conservative to moderate voters breaking for Governor Romney. Want to show you this one here. This is the interesting, Wolf. This is very close late tonight when we start asking about the Democrats who voted tonight, 39 percent of the electorate, that's high for Republican primaries, describe themselves as moderate or liberal. Well, Rick Santorum is no liberal but look at this, 37 percent to 33 percent. So are these moderate to liberal voters voting because they support Senator Santorum or are they Democrats and independents who lean Democrats voting in the Republican primary trying to cause a little mischief in Mitt Romney's home state? This, Wolf, will be something we watch as the night goes on. It looks like we're going to be counting Michigan, not only county by county, but congressional district by congressional district. Because that's how the delegates show up. Why are so many moderates and liberals voting for Rick Santorum? Could be a question late into the evening -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Yes. We're going to be staying on top of this story. It could be, as I say, late into the night. I want to go to Candy Crowley. She's over at Mitt Romney's campaign headquarters. They're very excited, Candy, that Mitt Romney has won Arizona and all of its 29 delegates.</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: They are. But I have to tell you that the video feeds in here, the cable news went to hash about 10 minutes ago, so nobody in this room knew until about a minute ago that the Arizona projection is that Mitt Romney will win all those delegates. It came over the PA system actually is how they found out. So while they're not dancing in the streets, they're at least dancing in the ballroom here. Obviously, what they want to know about is Michigan. The folks here on the ground, a lot of them state officials, say it's going to be a long night which I think we probably could have figured out for ourselves. At some point we do expect the attorney general of Michigan, a Romney supporter, to come up and say exactly what they've heard that, A, Arizona is coming in for Romney, and, B, stand by and we'll see how Michigan goes. So waiting and seeing. Some of them have been here for a couple of hours. So it was nice for them to have some good news, albeit over the PA system here -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Yes, it's amazing. You would think at a night like this, they would have the TVs working at these respective campaign headquarters but obviously someone screwed up over there at Romney headquarters. I assume, Candy, people will be saying this is a metaphor or whatever, but let's just assume somebody made a mistake and the TVs working --</s>CROWLEY: It was working, it was working originally.</s>BLITZER: Yes.</s>CROWLEY: Yes. It was fine and then it went to hash. And I'm sure they're working on it.</s>BLITZER: Yes. I'm sure they are. All right, Candy, don't go too far away. Anderson is with us as well. Look, you can't knock it. Arizona, 29 delegates.</s>ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.</s>BLITZER: All of them going for Romney, a big win. We were all just in Arizona last week at the CNN debate and Romney came through there.</s>COOPER: Yes.</s>BLITZER: We'll see what happens in Michigan.</s>COOPER: Certainly a big win indeed. I mean it would have been a huge surprise had he not won in Arizona based on all the polls we've been watching over the last weeks.</s>DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. And you know we need to give him credit in Arizona because we have a tendency in the press to focus on the ones -- you know, the train wrecks and -- or the close ones like Michigan. But Arizona has just -- has just as many delegates, in fact, he'll get all the delegates out of this. So in terms of the delegate hunt, this was a -- this was a significant win for Romney and looks like he's doing -- you know the trend lines in Michigan suggest he may pull this out. That would constitute a good evening for him. And certainly avoidance of a huge embarrassment.</s>COOPER: If he wins but it's a very close race in Michigan, as it appears to be at this point, at least, I mean is that -- is that -- does that still do him damage?</s>GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it could because you would feel that Michigan would be an easy state for him to win. And because, you know, it's where his father was governor, it's where he grew up, and he's having a hard time there. And then it brings into the whole question of how is a Republican candidate, if he becomes the nominee going to do in the Midwest which, you know, you have to win a state or two in this Midwest if you're going to win the presidency, Michigan and Ohio would be -- would be nice. But again, to echo David on Arizona, I think you have to give Mitt Romney credit here. What's interesting to me is that he split those most conservative voters. He still was a little behind Santorum on the Tea Party voters, strongly support the Tea Party voters, those are the ones he's had some problem with. And -- but he won all income groups and you know he usually wins the wealthy and not under $50,000 so, you know, you have to give him credit here.</s>COOPER: Although if you're a Rick Santorum, you look at the fact that if you look at his percentage of the votes and Newt Gingrich's percentage of the votes it about equals what Rick Santorum -- what --</s>BORGER: Right. And you would also say, I didn't spend money in the state of Arizona, I've been competing in the state of Michigan, large population of Mormons, 15 percent of the Republican electorate. So I think, you know --</s>COOPER: Right.</s>GERGEN: Yet the polls do show that in Arizona the debate -- Santorum, I think we all agree Santorum lost the debate, he had a bad night last week, and that debate did have a significant impact in Arizona.</s>COOPER: Yes.</s>GERGEN: So I think it helped Romney. It seemed to have less of an impact in Michigan. But to go back to your question about -- I think a win is a win in terms of the kind of headlines you get but it does set you up for the next test. And Ohio will be a perhaps I think in many ways more critical test for Mitt Romney because it is not the state which he was raised, and right now, he's behind there. And I don't know whether -- well, it will be so interesting to hear tonight from these undecided voters in Ohio how they respond to whatever happens if Mitt Romney wins Michigan.</s>BORGER: Yes, I think the big question also is if Mitt Romney wins Michigan, even if it's only by a point or two or three, will that give him momentum? We haven't seen a lot of momentum in these -- in these races. Will that give him momentum on Super Tuesday and will that get him some more money because he's been spending his money at a very quick pace here? And so he needs money, he needs momentum going into Super Tuesday. In a lot of states, in the south, for example, that he -- that he is not likely to do well in, like Georgia, for example.</s>GERGEN: He's running third there. He's running third.</s>BORGER: Where Newt Gingrich will do well.</s>COOPER: Right.</s>BORGER: Right. In Massachusetts, yes, he will. But Oklahoma, Tennessee, and so, you know, you've got to think of those states and Santorum could do well in some of those.</s>COOPER: Let's bring our other panel as well. I mean how critical on Super Tuesday is Georgia become for Newt Gingrich? I mean Newt Gingrich has not had a win now since South Carolina. I guess he can stay in it for -- regardless of Super Tuesday.</s>ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: I think the most important state for Newt is not Georgia, it's Nevada. He's got to keep getting money out of the -- out of Chairman and Adelson there. And as long as he keeps winning that one-man primary, then --</s>ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Did you call him Chairman Adelson?</s>COOPER: Yes.</s>CASTELLANOS: But no, that's -- interestingly enough, I think even a victory in Georgia is not going to do much for Newt Gingrich at this point. It's home, it's expected. He has to broaden himself beyond that and prove he -- you know, we can certainly can't count him out. The guys is -- he's harder to kill than one of the thing from the horror movie, you know, he keeps coming back. But we haven't -- and unless he goes beyond Georgia, I think you're going to see this turn -- stay a two-man race.</s>FLEISCHER: You know Newt set himself up because he said it's hard to imagine anybody going on if they don't take their home state.</s>COOPER: Right. Right.</s>FLEISCHER: So he set himself up for that. And I think Georgia is going to be a fair fight actually with him. But Anderson, let me return to something we've been focusing on all night long, and that's the Democrat influence in Michigan. The latest we have in exit polls showed that percentage now of Democrats in Michigan is 9 percent, it's dropped from the earlier projections of 10 percent.</s>COOPER: Right.</s>FLEISCHER: Putting it very close to the 7 percent that came out four years ago. I've talked to a number of people in Michigan during tonight. There's a real sense up there that it's been a bit of an exaggeration of how many of these people are political pros that came out to make mischief. They're the ones who would love to get on camera and talk about it. There's also a sense that they really are just some blue-collar Democrats, moderates, who don't like Barack Obama who are attracted to Rick Santorum mostly because of what Gloria has talked about, some of the class warfare kind of thing, identification with Rick Santorum. So I do think there's more to it than just -- this is mischief making for Rick Santorum.</s>COOPER: Right.</s>FLEISCHER: I don't think that's fair to him. He has an attraction to some of these voters. And the numbers really aren't that disproportionate. But for example, he's got 45 percent of the union vote and Mitt Romney has only 26 percent of the union vote in Michigan. That's a Democratic vote.</s>CASTELLANOS: But there's some things that just don't make sense, though, when you look at -at -- when you look at people who say they oppose the Tea Party. Guess who they're voting for? Rick Santorum. Wait a minute. That doesn't make sense. Some Democrats slipped in there. When you look at liberals, guess who they're voting for in large numbers? Rick Santorum.</s>FLEISCHER: There is no liberal breakdown. It's moderate and liberal combined.</s>CASTELLANOS: Moderate and liberal.</s>FLEISCHER: But the polling doesn't tell you.</s>CASTELLANOS: You would still expect that -- you would still expect that that would be a place where Romney would find gold, not Rick Santorum. I think the answer is probably a little bit of both but in a close race, it all counts.</s>MARIA CARDONA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, at the end of the day, I don't know if it's going to really make all that much of a difference. But I do think what we haven't really focused on tonight, and I'm sure we will as the night goes on, are the politics of the auto rescue. Because I really think that's one of the reasons why Mitt Romney is struggling so much in his home state. And while clearly the majority of Democrats are for it, we see that a good number of Republicans support it as well including the Republican governor.</s>COOPER: But all the candidates were opposed to the bailout.</s>CARDONA: Yes, but except for Mitt Romney is from that state. His father was an auto executive. People from Detroit and especially Michigan, obviously, they see this as more of a betrayal from Mitt Romney than they would Rick Santorum.</s>CARDONA: And let's keep in mind, they call -- they don't call this the bailout in Michigan, they call it the auto rescue. Why? Because it rescued millions of jobs.</s>FLEISCHER: Look, the exit polls actually show 51 percent of the voters tonight in the primary oppose the bailout.</s>COOPER: Yes.</s>FLEISCHER: The majority of Republicans in Michigan opposed it.</s>CARDONA: But that's not -- that's not --</s>PAUL BEGALA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: They're the Republicans. I mean --</s>CASTELLANOS: That's the majority.</s>BEGALA: But what it did was rescue Michigan for Barack Obama. He will win Michigan in the general election, it will not be a swing state, even if Mitt Romney, as the son of Michigan, is the Republican nominee because the president took a really tough stand and it was very unpopular at the time in both parties if you polled it. And it worked it. And he is going to win Michigan and it's not going to be a swing state. And that's -- I mean --</s>CARDONA: Yes.</s>CASTELLANOS: It hasn't been a swing state in a long time.</s>BEGALA: It could. It was -- it was a few months ago, though, because the economy was so bad and unemployment was so high. It plainly looks like it's worked.</s>CASTELLANOS: I can't believe my ears that -- my friend Paul here. So the president took a tough stand giving away 43 percent of GM and billions of dollars? No, giving money is the easy part. Saying no --</s>BEGALA: We can get at the time --</s>CASTELLANOS: Mitt Romney is criticized -- excuse me.</s>BEGALA: It was a business decision.</s>CASTELLANOS: Excuse me, Mitt Romney is criticized a lot, isn't he, for not taking tough stands, for not -- for not being firm on things. Well, guess what, in his home state, he stood up to a home state industry and said, no, there's a better way to do this than to hand it to the</s>UAW. BEGALA: But he was wrong.</s>CASTELLANOS: And it's pretty tough.</s>BEGALA: He said in that op-ed -- I know he says he didn't write the headlines, so let's leave the headline out. Let Detroit go bankrupt. He wrote the lead, though. And the lead said, if we do what the auto executives are asking for we can kiss the American automotive industry good-bye. That's what Newt -- that's what Mr. Romney said. He was wrong.</s>CASTELLANOS: No, he wasn't.</s>BEGALA: This is an important thing but to grab him on his argument against President Obama is he has never held a job, he doesn't know anything about business. That's a powerful argument. This is a wonderful answer that Obama has, he says, wait a minute, Mr. CEO, Mr. Businessman, I made a business call about a big business crisis. I was right and you were wrong. And I think it's a terrific --</s>FLEISCHER: Paul, it's certainly true about Chrysler. Chrysler is no longer an American owned company. We took it over. The taxpayers. And then it was sold through the pennies on the dollar to Fiat. Fiat owns Chrysler.</s>BEGALA: Let's go make that to Mitt Romney's point --</s>FLEISCHER: It has a lot of validity there.</s>FLEISCHER: Unless you can</s>CASTELLANOS: I think the biggest thing --</s>CARDONA: But the problem is what Romney was talking about, his plan would not have worked, and in fact, your old boss said so as well because there was no private money to come and rescue the auto industry, so there was no other option.</s>CASTELLANOS: Because -- because the Obama administration wouldn't cut lose the --</s>CARDONA: So what is he talking about when he said we should have done it my way?</s>BEGALA: The Chrysler bailout did come from the Bush administration. And they deserved credit for that. So if they were bought by Fiat or whatever, that's Mr. Bush --</s>CASTELLANOS: The most important thing we've learned tonight so far is that Mitt Romney has too many home states.</s>CASTELLANOS: Because he doesn't seem to be doing well in them.</s>COOPER: Yes. Wolf, we're still watching those votes come in.</s>BLITZER: And let's take a look, Anderson, where the votes stand in Michigan right now. Twenty-eight percent of the vote is actually in. And Mitt Romney is building up his lead in the state of Michigan. He's 9,238 votes ahead of Rick Santorum, 116,000 votes for Mitt Romney or so, 106, almost 107,000 for Rick Santorum. Forty-one percent for Romney, 38 percent for Santorum, 28 percent of the vote is now in. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich behind. We're going to be speaking live shortly with Ron Paul. I've got bunch of questions I want to ask him on this very important night, Michigan, Arizona. We projected Arizona already going to Mitt Romney. We're one week away from Super Tuesday. Ten contests next week, lots of questions coming up for Ron Paul right after this.