{"action":"created","issue":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1","labels_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1/labels{/name}","comments_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1/comments","events_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1/events","html_url":"https://github.com/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1","id":56428728,"number":1,"title":"Can't replicate results in Bayes Factor page","user":{"login":"flimao","id":5827775,"avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/5827775?v=3","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao","html_url":"https://github.com/flimao","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/flimao/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"labels":[],"state":"closed","locked":false,"assignee":null,"milestone":null,"comments":6,"created_at":"2015-02-03T20:01:25Z","updated_at":"2015-02-11T15:00:56Z","closed_at":"2015-02-11T15:00:56Z","body":"Hi,\r\n\r\nThe page in question is this: [Calculating Bayes factors with PyMC](http://stronginference.com/bayes-factors-pymc.html)\r\n\r\nI ran the [model in it](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc/wiki/BayesFactor), using:\r\n\r\n```python\r\n>>> map_ = MAP(M_m)\r\n>>> M = MCMC(M_m)\r\n>>> M.sample(500000, burn=250000)\r\n```\r\n\r\n but I keep getting probabilities of the Poisson model being True like these:\r\n\r\n```python\r\n>>> true_model.stats()['mean']\r\n0.56470799999999999\r\n```\r\n\r\nThe traces look like these:\r\n\r\n![image](https://cloud.githubusercontent.com/assets/5827775/6028070/ca56d6a8-abcd-11e4-88e6-b42a50bb68ad.png)\r\n\r\n![image](https://cloud.githubusercontent.com/assets/5827775/6028074/d0e57970-abcd-11e4-9d28-325f313e22b3.png)\r\n\r\n![image](https://cloud.githubusercontent.com/assets/5827775/6028076/d8c7eaa6-abcd-11e4-9991-f6e938277758.png)\r\n\r\nChanging the burn-in, or thinning the posterior sample, doesn't change the outcome. \r\n\r\nI speculated that maybe including the `deterministic` variable `p` in the model was making the sampler's job harder (because it's correlated with `mu`), but removing it from the model specification didn't change the outcome either.\r\n\r\nI'm not sure what's going wrong here. Can you help me, please? I'm using version 2.3.4 of PyMC, running it in PYthon 3.4.1 x64.\r\n\r\nCheers!"},"comment":{"url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/comments/73894722","html_url":"https://github.com/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1#issuecomment-73894722","issue_url":"https://api.github.com/repos/fonnesbeck/fonnesbeck.github.io/issues/1","id":73894722,"user":{"login":"fonnesbeck","id":81476,"avatar_url":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/81476?v=3","gravatar_id":"","url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck","html_url":"https://github.com/fonnesbeck","followers_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/followers","following_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/following{/other_user}","gists_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/gists{/gist_id}","starred_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/starred{/owner}{/repo}","subscriptions_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/subscriptions","organizations_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/orgs","repos_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/repos","events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/events{/privacy}","received_events_url":"https://api.github.com/users/fonnesbeck/received_events","type":"User","site_admin":false},"created_at":"2015-02-11T15:00:56Z","updated_at":"2015-02-11T15:00:56Z","body":"I'm going to close this in favor of pymc-devs/pymc#676 where I will push a fix."}}