headline: US na China vyoba bitera bija mu ntambara kubera Taiwan?
text: Inyuma y’indwi nkeya umukuru wa Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika agabishije Ubushinwa kuri Taiwan, Pékin iriyamiriza bikomeye aya majambo, ivuga ko izorwanya n’inguvu zayo zose iciyumviro ico ari co cose c’ukwikukira kwa Taiwan. Ku wa Mungu, umushikiranganji w’Ubushinwa ajejwe kwivuna abansi Jenerali Wei Fenghe yaragirije cane cane Amerika ko ishigikiye ukwikukira kw’iri zinga, avuga ko iriko “irahonyanga ivyo yiyemeje kuri Taiwan” no “kwivanga” mu bibazo vy’Ubushinwa. Ari mw’ikoraniro Shangri-la Dialogue, ikoraniro ryiga ku bijanye n’umutekano wa Aziya ririko ribera muri Singapour, yavuze ati: “Reka ntomore iki kintu neza: mu gihe hogira umuntu uwo ari we wese yohirahira gutandukanya Taiwan akayikura ku Busshinwa, ntituzohingitanya kurwana. "Tuzorwana n’inguvu zacu zose gushika ku wa nyuma. Aya niyo mahirwe yonyene y’Ubushinwa”. Avuze aya majambo inyuma y’ubutumwa Perezida Joe Biden aherutse guha Ubushinwa ko buriko “bufyina ahafyikiye” mu kugururira indege zabwo hafi ya Taiwan. Yiyemeje ko azokingira iri zinga mu gihe ryoramuka ritewe. Taiwan, izinga ryifata nk’igihugu cigenga, yamye irwanirwa n’Ubushinwa. Ariko Taiwan kandi igendera kuri Amerika nk’incuti yayo ya hafi gusumba, mu gihe Washington ifise itegeko riyisaba gufasha iri zinga kwivuna umwansi. Ivyo guterana amajambo vyagiye kwunyuka igihe Ubushinwa burungitse indege z’intambara mu kirere ca Taiwan – mu gasotoro kanini cane muri uno mwaka, aha hakaba hari mu kwezi guheze – mu gihe Amerika nayo yarungitse amato y’intambara mu mazi ya Taiwan. None ubwo Amerika n’Ubushinwa vyoba biriko bitera bija mu mishamirano ya gisirikare? Hari ubwoba bwinshi ko hashobora kwaduka intambara mu gihe Ubushinwa bwotera Taiwan. Pékin yarigeze kuvuga ko izokwisubiza iri zinga hakoreshejwe inguvu bibaye ngombwa. Ariko abihweza ibintu n’ibindi babona ko ibi bidashoboka  - muri iki gihe. Hari impari nimba Ubushinwa koko bufise inguvu za gisirikare zihagije kugira ngo ikore igitero, mu gihe Taiwan ibandanya yegeranya inguvu zo mu kirere no mu mazi. Ariko abenshi baremera ko Pékin izi neza ko yohahombera cane kandi ko vyotera akaga – atari ku Bushinwa gusa, ariko no kw’isi yose. "Hari vyinshi bivugwa, ariko Abashinwa bategerezwa kuhagabira cane nu gihe boba bategura gutera Taiwan, cane cane ko ari ikibazo cegeranye n’ica Ukraine. Ubutunzi bw’Ubushinwa burafitaniye isano rinini cane n’ubutunzi bw’isi gusumba uko ubwo Uburusiya bumeze”, ibi bikaba bivugwa na William Choong wo mu kigo gikurikirana ibibazo vyo mu karere ka Aziya y’ubumanuko bushira ubuseruko (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies). Ubushinwa bubandanya busaba ko “busubirana na Taiwan mu mahoro” – ico Jenerali Wei yashimitseko ku wa Mungu – kandi ko buzofata ingingo mu gihe gusa bwosotorwa. Rero icotuma umuriro waka ni uko Taiwan itangaza ku mugaragaro ko yikukiye. Ariko iki nico Perezida Tsai Ing-wen azibira, n’aho yama avuga ko ari igihugu cigenga. Abanya - Taiwan hafi bose barashigikiye iki ciyumviro, ko ibintu vyoguma uko biri, n’aho hari inkehwa bavuga ko bashaka gushika ku bwigenge. Ariko kandi, ni nk’uko Amerika idashaka kwinjizwa mu ntambara yotuma ikoresha uburyo bwinshi bwa gisirikare muri Aziya, kandi ibandanya ivuga ko itipfuza intambara. Umunyamabanga wa reta ajejwe kwivuna abansi, Lloyd Austin nawe nyene akaba yaritavye iri koraniro, mw’ijanbo yashikirije yavuze ko Amerika idashigikiye ukwikukira kwa Taiwan, kandi ko idakeney “intambara nshasha y’ukwikekana [Guerre froide/Cold War]). Collin Koh, umushakashatsi kw’ishure S Rajaratnam School of International Studies  avuga ati: "Impande zompi ntizirota zidegura ku kibazo ca Taiwan. "Ariko bategerezwa kuraba neza, na rirya batagomba kuboneka ko ari bo batuma ibintu bisubira inyuma”. “Ariko aho nyene kandi, barazi neza  ko bitokworoha mu gihe boja mu ntambara yeruye. "Bariko barabana ku jisho ivyo umwe wese avuga, kandi buri ruhande ruriko rugerageza kworosha ibintu”. Kubona Jen Wei na Austin babonana ukwabo mw’ikoraniro Shangri-la Dialogue cabaye ikintu ciza, kuko bisigura ko impande zompi zishaka kwerekana ko “bagishaka kwicara bakabiganirako, bagashika mu masezerano, bakemera ko hari ivyo badategerezwa kubona kumwe”. Koh avuga ko ibi bishobora gutuma haba ibiganiro hagati y’ibi bisirikare bibiri vyotuma icuka kibi coteza intambara kivaho, hanyuma hagasubira kunagurwa “ingendo y’ibiganiro” yari ibuze mu gihe c’ubutegetsi bwa Donald Trump. Ariko n’aho biri uko, uku guterana amajambo hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika kwitezwe kuzobandanya uku. Ubushinwa bufise mbere no kwongereza “ibikorwa vy’agasotoro” mu ntumbero yo gutesha umutwe ingabo za Taiwan  - nko kurungika izindi ndege z’intambara  - canke mu gukwiragiza ibinyoma, nk’uko bivugwa na Dr. Ian Chong, umuhinga w’umushinwa kuri kaminuza ya Singapour. Taiwan yarigeze kwagiriza Ubushinwa ko bwateguye isekeza yo gukwiragiza ibinyoma muri ino misi iri zinga ryegereje amatora, bikaba vyitezwe ko iri zinga ritegura amatora akomeye mu mpera z’uno mwaka. Kuri Amerika n’Ubushinwa n’ibura, “nta shaka ririho ryo guhindura aho bihagaze” ubu, na rirya cane cane himirije ibikorwa bikomye – amatora yo muri Munyonyo (11) muri Amerika, hamwe n’ikoraniro rigira 20 ry’umugambwe w’aba Komunista  mu Bushinwa mu gice ca kabiri c’uno mwaka aho Perezida Xi Jinping yiteze gutsimbataza ubutegetsi bwiwe. Dr Chong ati: “Iciza kihari ni uko ata ruhande na rumwe rushaka ko ibintu vyunyuka”. “Ariko n’aho ibintu bitokwunyuka ntibisigura ko tuzoba duhagaze neza. Rero twese turacari muri iki kibazo mu gihe kanaka”.