Chapter 16: Allport: Trait Theory
Part 2: Allport’s Psychology of Personality
As a rule, science regards the individual as a mere bothersome accident. Psychology, too, ordinarily treats him as something to be brushed aside so the main business of accounting for the uniformity of events can get under way…With the intention of supplementing this abstract portrait by one that is more life-like, a new movement within psychological science has gradually grown up. It attempts in a variety of ways and from many points of view to depict and account for the manifest individuality of mind. This new movement has come to be known (in America) as the psychology of personality. (pg. vii; Allport, 1937)
With these words, in the preface to Personality: A Psychological Interpretation, Allport “officially” established the study of personality as a discipline in the field of psychology. His goal was two-fold: (1) to gather together the most important research on personality to date, and (2) to provide a framework within which the study of personality might then proceed toward understanding this “endlessly rich subject-matter” (Allport, 1937).
What is Personality and What Are Traits?
Allport provides an interesting history of the use of the term persona, including a set of definitions written by Cicero (106-43 B.C.): as one appears to others (but not as one really is); the part one plays in life; the collection of personal qualities that fits one’s career (or place in life); and distinction and dignity. These and other definitions of persona represent a contradiction, that persona, or personality in psychological terms, is both something vital and internal and yet also something external and false. Although psychologists came to favor definitions that emphasized an assemblage of personal qualities, Allport noted that no two psychologists could easily agree on one definition for the term “personality.” So Allport offered a definition of his own: Personality is the dynamic organization within the individual of those psychophysical systems that determine his unique adjustments to his environment. (pg. 48; Allport, 1937)
Dynamic Organization: According to Allport, personality involves active organization, which is constantly evolving and changing, and which involves motivation and self-regulation. Thus, it is dynamic, not static. Organization also brings with it the possibility of disorganization, and the resulting abnormalities associated with personality disorders and/or mental illness.
Psychophysical Systems: The term “psychophysical” is meant to remind us that personality reflects both mind and body; the total organism. The systems include habits, attitudes, sentiments, and dispositions of various kinds. Most important, however, are the traits, which may be either latent or active.
Determine: In Allport’s view, “personality is something and does something.” Personality is not synonymous with behavior, but instead, it underlies it and it comes from within the individual. The systems mentioned above can be viewed as determining tendencies.
Unique: Naturally, each adjustment by an individual is unique in time, space, and quality. However, Allport mentioned this aspect in anticipation of his later discussion of individual vs. common traits (see below).
Adjustments to His Environment: Personality, according to Allport, is a mode of survival, and it has functional and evolutionary significance. For humans, we are not simply reactive, as plants and animals are, because we can be spontaneous and creative. We can, and do, seek mastery over our environment (both behavioral and geographic). Unfortunately, once again, the possibility exists for maladaptive behavior that arises under abnormal conditions (such as an abusive home environment).
In 1961, Allport wrote an updated and substantially revised version of his personality text entitled Pattern and Growth in Personality. He made only one significant change to his definition of personality, which reflected a greater emphasis on cognitive processes. He changed the phrase “unique adjustments to his environment” to “characteristic behavior and thought” (pg. 28; Allport, 1961). He described “characteristic” in essentially the same way as he had described “unique” so that change was insignificant. However, the phrase “behavior and thought” was intended to indicate that individuals do more than simply adjust to their environment; they also reflect on it. Thus, the human intellect is an important factor in the manner in which we seek mastery over our environment and, indeed, over our lives.
So now we turn our attention to traits, those special psychophysical systems that are at the center of Allport’s theory of personality. In 1936, Allport and Odbert had examined the 1925 edition of Webster’s New International Dictionary and identified 17,953 words (4½ percent of the English language) that described aspects of distinctive and personal behavior that would commonly be described as traits (see Allport, 1937). Allport viewed a trait as both a form of readiness and a determining tendency. There are a number of other concepts that share some similarity with traits, such as habits, attitudes, needs, types, and instincts. In each case, however, these other forms of readiness to engage in certain responses or activities are different than traits, particularly with regard to their specificity and external focus or, as in the case of types, they describe a collection of correlated attributes. After describing the differences, Allport arrived at the following definition of a trait:
We are left with a concept of trait as a generalized and focalized neuropsychic system (peculiar to the individual), with the capacity to render many stimuli functionally equivalent, and to initiate and guide consistent (equivalent) forms of adaptive and expressive behavior. (pg. 295; Allport, 1937)
The essential aspect of this definition is equivalence, both perceptually and behaviorally. As the result of a trait, different stimuli are perceived as similar and therefore responded to in similar ways. This occurs regardless of the nature of the stimuli themselves. Suppose, for example, an individual is paranoid. If someone walks by and says “Hi, how are you today?” the paranoid individual might wonder “What is that supposed to mean? Why are they pretending to be so nice? What are they really up to?” As illogical as this response might seem, a paranoid trait has the ability to render even a simple hello as a threat.
Allport also made an important distinction between individual traits and common traits. Underlying this discussion was another important topic in Allport’s approach to psychology: the distinction between the idiographic and nomothetic approaches to studying psychology. As psychologists attempted to define their discipline as a scientific endeavor, they pursued a nomothetic approach, one that emphasizes general rules that apply to all. However, the psychology of personality that Allport was pursuing is inherently idiographic, an approach that emphasizes individuality. Strictly speaking, no two people can have exactly the same trait. Thus, all traits are inherently individual traits. However, this creates an extraordinary challenge for psychologists, both experimental psychologists who would measure traits and clinical psychologists who would describe an individual as possessing a certain trait (at some level) in order to provide a framework for communication and therapy. Allport agreed that is was logical to assume the existence of common traits, since normal people in a given culture would naturally tend to develop comparable modes of adjustment. However, Allport cautioned that developing clinical or experimental measures of such traits would at best be approximations of the individual traits present in each person (Allport, 1937, 1961).
Allport described the persona as something vital and internal, yet external and false. How can this be? Can you think of different aspects of your personality that fit both perspectives, and if so, how do those aspects of your personality fit together?
Personal Dispositions
Having acknowledged that there is logic to the process of examining common traits as opposed to individual traits, Allport then returned to each individual’s unique personality by addressing personal dispositions. A personal disposition is based on traits, but somewhat more complex, such as in a unique combination of traits (e.g., someone who is tentatively aggressive, as opposed to someone who is belligerently aggressive). In another important change between the 1937 and 1961 editions of Allport’s general personality text, the latter book discusses cardinal, central, and secondary dispositions, rather than cardinal, central, and secondary traits.
A cardinal disposition is one that dominates an individual’s entire life. It cannot remain hidden, and the individual will be known by it. Historically, some commonly used terms have adopted the reputation of famous figures, including at least one that appears in the DSM-V: the Narcissistic Personality Disorder (named after Narcissus, from Greek mythology). Another example would be to describe someone as Christ-like. Personalities that possess one cardinal disposition, however, are quite unusual.
Much more common are central dispositions. If you were asked to describe a good friend, you would most likely offer a handful of distinguishable central dispositions. The interesting question, of course, is how many central dispositions does a typical personal have? Allport suggested that a person’s central dispositions would be those things one would mention in a carefully written letter of recommendation, a response that might make sense to someone like a professor, who often writes such letters.
Of lesser importance, according to Allport, are the secondary dispositions. Secondary traits are those that are not quite as obvious or as consistent as central traits. They are present under specific circumstances and include preferences and attitudes. For example, one person gets angry when people try to tickle him; another can only sleep on the left side of the bed; and yet another always orders her salad dressing on the side.  (Psychology, 2014)
In concluding his discussion of cardinal, central, and secondary dispositions, Allport acknowledged that these gradations are arbitrary, and presented primarily for convenience. In reality, he said, there are many degrees of personality organization, from the most loosely structured and unstable to the most pervasive and firmly structured. The value of these distinctions is to provide a relative measure of the influence of traits and dispositions when discussing personality.
Personality Development, Functional Autonomy, and the Mature Personality
According to Allport, a newborn infant has no personality, for it has not experienced the world in which it will live and it has had no opportunity to develop its distinctive modes of adjusting to that environment. According to Allport, personality exists only later, after the common elements of human nature have interacted and produced the unique, self-continuing, and evolving systems that form the individual’s personality. The basic aspects of growth, following the infant’s initial random and diffuse behavior, involve differentiation, integration, maturation, and learning. As the child’s nervous system develops, it gradually gains finer control over its movement. Little by little, the young child differentiates more efficient and adaptive patterns of behavior, including vocal behavior. Psychologically, this differentiation involves more than just behaviors themselves; it also includes the ability to control the initiation of those behaviors. Very young children have little capacity for delaying their actions; they want to do things now! As the child’s behavioral repertoire increases, it becomes just as necessary and adaptive to begin integrating some of those behaviors into coordinated actions. Once again, if applied to psychological and cognitive processes, the development of traits and dispositions begins with the integration of life’s experiences. As these processes are occurring, the child is also maturing physically. Allport did not view maturation as something that contributed directly to personality, but it does indirectly by bringing out every inherited feature of the individual, including temperament, intellectual capacity, physical features, etc. All of these factors, plus the extensive contribution of different types of learning, contribute to the manner in which the individual experiences their environment (Allport, 1937). However, we can never truly know the personality that develops.
As a sense of self develops, these developmental processes of childhood progress through a series of stages: (1) a sense of bodily self, (2) a sense of continuing identity, (3) a sense of self-esteem or pride, (4) the extension of self, (5) a self-image, (6) a sense of self as rationally able to cope, and finally, in adolescence, (7) a sense of “directedness” or “intentionality.” Allport described these seven aspects of selfhood as a sense of self-relevance that we feel. When combined, they create the “me” as felt and known. In order to identify this sense of “me” or “I,” Allport recommended the term proprium. Proprium is derived from the Latin term proprius, and it refers to a property common to the members of some class, but which is not part of the definition of that class. In other words, everyone has a personality, but no one’s personality is part of the definition of what it means to be a person. But why not simply use the word “self?” Allport felt that many psychologists use the words “self” and “ego” to mean only one or two aspects of the entire proprium. Also, Allport wanted to distinguish between the self as an object and the self as the “knower” of that object. The proprium refers specifically to the self as an object, whereas self refers both to the object and the “knower.” We can be directly aware of the proprium in a way that we can never be fully aware of the “knower” (Allport, 1961).
As the child matures, both physically and psychologically, the individual’s interests and motives become stable and predictable. A special type of psychological maturity (as opposed to genetic/biological maturity) takes place, which Allport termed functional autonomy. Functional autonomy regards adult motives as varied, and as self-sustaining systems that are unique to the individual. They may have arisen out of developmental processes and experiences, but they are independent of them. This means that any tie between adult motives and early childhood experience is historical, not functional. This is a radically different view than that of Sigmund Freud and most psychodynamic theorists who considered early childhood experiences to be the driving force behind adult behavior, especially neurotic behavior. Allport offers the example of a good workman. Such a workman feels compelled to do his best work, even though his income no longer depends on maintaining high standards. Indeed, doing his very best on every job may actually hurt him financially, but his personal standards and his motivation demand nothing less (Allport, 1937, 1961). When viewed a different way, functional autonomy serves another important motivational role. If one considers early childhood experiences to be the determining factors in personality, then all adult motives must have some infantile source. However, by separating adult motives from their childhood antecedents, then there does not need to be anything childish about what motivates adults. This allows for entirely new sources of motivation to be relevant during adulthood, motives that might have been completely beyond the intellectual and cognitive capacities of children.
In considering what constitutes a mature personality, Allport considered the writings of Sigmund Freud, Richard Clarke Cabot, Erik Erikson, and Abraham Maslow. He also considered the length of each man’s list. Allport settled on a list of six ideal characteristics of the mature personality. He described the list as an ideal, because he freely acknowledged that no one is perfect, even the “sturdiest of personalities have their foibles and their regressive moments; and to a large extent they depend on environmental supports for their maturity” (pp. 282-282; Allport, 1961).
Extension of the Sense of Self: The mature person focuses on more than simple needs or drive-reduction; they develop strong interests outside of themselves.
Warm Relating of Self to Others: The mature person is marked by two kinds of warmth. On one hand, through self-extension they are capable of great intimacy in their capacity for love, whether it involves family members or friends. On the other hand, they avoid gossipy, intrusive, or possessive relationships with other people. They respect other persons as persons, they express tolerance and the so-called “democratic character structure.”
Emotional Security (Self-Acceptance): Mature individuals demonstrate emotional poise; they have the ability to avoid overreacting. Especially important, according to Allport, is that they possess the quality of “frustration tolerance.”
Realistic Perception, Skills, and Assignments: Generally speaking, the mature person is in close contact with what we call the “real world.” They see things, including people, for what they really are.
Self-Objectification – Insight and Humor: In describing this characteristic, Allport quoted Socrates: “know thyself.” In Allport’s psychology classes, 96 percent of his students thought they had average or better than average insight (by definition, only 50 percent can be above the average). So people think they have good insight, but this is often not the case. There does appear to be a high correlation between insight and humor. People who truly know themselves are able to look at themselves objectively, and to laugh at their own failings and mistakes.
The Unifying Philosophy of Life: According to Allport, humor may be essential, but it is never sufficient. Maturity requires a sense of life’s purpose. This sense of purpose can be found in having a clear direction to one’s life, in a strong orientation to values, within one’s religious sentiment, or through a generic conscience. Allport found it quite interesting that many people consider their desire to serve society was a more important generic motive than the fulfillment of any sense of religious or spiritual duty. He concluded that an integrated sense of moral obligation can provide a unifying philosophy of life regardless of whether or not it is tied to one’s religious sentiments.
Consider Allport’s definition of a mature personality. Do you know anyone who fits all of the criteria? What are they like as a person, and do you consider them a friend (or, do they consider you a friend)?
The Assessment of Personality
Personality is so complex a thing that every legitimate method must be employed in its study. (pg. 369; Allport, 1937)
Previously in this text, we examined the common procedures used to assess personality today, and Allport reviewed similar concepts, as well as procedures that were available at the time. It is interesting to note that, in his 1937 text, the very first topic in Allport’s survey of assessment methods is the importance of evaluating the cultural setting. Two other topics were also of particular interest to Allport: the study of expressive behavior and the use of personal documents.
Allport’s first two books, Studies in Expressive Movement (Allport & Vernon, 1933) and The Psychology of Radio (Cantril & Allport, 1935), both addressed what Allport considered to be the second level at which personality is evaluated (the first level consists of the traits, interests, attitudes, etc., that compose the “inner” personality). He considered the study of expressive movement to be a more direct analysis of personality since it is based on observation and does not require the use of tests that only indirectly address the inner dispositions revealed in the first level of analysis. For example, what a patient says or writes while taking the Rorschach test is projective, but how they say or write it, the tone of their voice or the style of their handwriting, is expressive (Allport, 1961). Perhaps the primary value of expressive behavior is that it is freely emitted by the person being observed. It can include all aspects of behavior, including walking, talking, handwriting, gesturing, shaking hands, sketching, doodling, etc. Cantril and Allport examined a variety of curious aspects of radio voices. For example, a natural voice is more revealing of personality than a voice transmitted over the radio. They also found that blind people are not better at judging personality from voices than other people, perhaps dispelling the common belief that when people lose one sense they enhance their ability to rely on other senses. Much of what they found was difficult to interpret, however. Voice definitely conveyed accurate measures of personality, but there are no characteristics of personality that are always revealed correctly. Most people preferred to hear a male voice on the radio, but no one could actually explain why, and there were a variety of differences based on the specific aspects of the message or its content (Cantril & Allport, 1935). As for handwriting analysis, Allport felt that through careful research, it could become a valid tool for personality analysis. He acknowledged that this was a difficult and complex task, but he concluded that both handwriting and gestures reflect essentially stable and consistent individual styles (Allport & Vernon, 1933).
There are many types of personal documents, including letters, diaries, recorded interviews, and autobiographies. Perhaps the richest of these sources, personal letters, may well become a thing of the past. Letter writing has become much less formal with the advent of phone calls and email. Today, text messages don’t even rely on whole words. Politicians often rely on speech writers, so even their written words aren’t necessarily their own. Of greater concern, according to Allport, is that personal documents are not representative samples and they are not objective (Allport, 1942, 1961). However, if they can still provide insight into the nature of an individual’s personality, then why shouldn’t they be used with caution? Allport had a unique set of letters that had been written over a number of years by a woman, between the ages of 58 and 70, to a young married couple. The young husband had been her son’s college roommate. Seeing value in the letters as a source of psychological material, the couple made them available for publication, and they came into Allport’s possession to be published. For many years he used the letters to provide examples in his own classes, and eventually Allport published them again, along with his analysis of the woman’s personality, in Letters from Jenny (Allport, 1965). Of particular interest, is that Allport interpreted the letters in a variety of ways, including existential, Jungian, Adlerian, and Freudian perspectives. Allport concluded by addressing whether or not Jenny was normal, a point on which some people disagreed. Using his six characteristics of a mature personality, he assigned relatively low scores to Jenny based on her letters, but he also found some strengths within each characteristic. Thus, although Jenny appears to have been troubled, Allport concludes that it is not a simple matter to say she is normal or abnormal, but “her tangled life has contributed stimulus and challenge to posterity” (pg. 223; Allport, 1965).
Supplemental Materials
This video [10:43] begins by introducing Allport’s cardinal, central, and secondary traits, and then goes on to discuss the Big-Five and Cattell’s theory on personality.
Source: https://youtu.be/QIExefY9Pak
This video [10:00] describes trait theory, focusing on the work of Gordon Allport, Raymond Cattell, Hans Eysenck, and the Big Five.
Source: https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/behavior/theories-personality/v/trait-theory
This video [12:32] provides a brief overview of trait theories, including a discussion on Allport, Cattell, and Eysenck’s theories. The lecturer describes the difference between cardinal, central, and secondary traits, providing an example of each.
Source: https://youtu.be/8NF4qBhN_rE
If You Know Nothing About Personality 02: Modern Trait Theory
This video [8:44] briefly explores the work of Gordon Allport, Raymond Cattell, Hans Eysenck, William Sheldon, Henry Murray, and McCrae and Costa.
Source: https://youtu.be/MsTa-4Tamdg
Which Personality Traits Matter?
This video [7:09] describes several approaches to narrowing down personality traits into a manageable number of ways of thinking about how people differ. These include Gordon Allport’s hierarchy of cardinal dispositions, central traits, and secondary traits, the use of factor analysis and Raymond Cattell’s 16PF test for source traits, and Hans Eysenck’s two (and later three) dimensional model of introversion/extraversion and neuroticism (and later psychoticism).
Source: https://youtu.be/pxWEVoylr1c
References
Text: Kelland, M. (2017). Personality Theory. OER Commons. Retrieved October 28, 2019, from https://www.oercommons.org/authoring/22859-personality-theory. Licensed under CC-BY-4.0.
Psychology. (2014). OpenStax College. Retrieved from https://cnx.org/contents/Sr8Ev5Og@4.100:Vqapzwst@2/Trait-Theorists. Licensed under CC-BY-4.0.
Lisa Fosbender. (2013, March 7). Psychology 101: Trait theories of personality. [Video File]. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/QIExefY9Pak. Standard YouTube License.
Desai, Shreena. “Trait theory.” Khan Academy. Retrieved from https://www.khanacademy.org/test-prep/mcat/behavior/theories-personality/v/trait-theory.
East Tennessee State University. (2014, September 9). Personality: Trait theory part 1. [Video File]. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/8NF4qBhN_rE. Standard YouTube License.
Ken Tangen. (2010, January 14). If you know nothing about personality 02: Modern trait theory. [Video File]. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/MsTa-4Tamdg. Standard YouTube License.
PsychExamReview. (2017, July 27). Which personality traits matter? (Intro psych tutorial #137). [Video File]. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/pxWEVoylr1c. Standard YouTube License.


17
“You do not become a ”dissident” just because you decide one day to take up this most unusual career. You are thrown into it by your personal sense of responsibility, combined with a complex set of external circumstances. You are cast out of the existing structures and placed in a position of conflict with them. It begins as an attempt to do your work well and ends with being branded an enemy of society.”
― Vaclav Havel
The revolution in Czechoslovakia offers a unique case study for many reasons, one being that it was a revolution experienced in two stages. The first stage, the Prague Spring of 1968, ended when the Soviet Union sent Warsaw Pact troops to invade Czechoslovakia and take back control of the country. The second stage, the Velvet Revolution of 1989, resulted in a peaceful separation from the Communist Soviet Union. Although the Prague Spring may have ended in a “complete re-Sovietization” of the country, it should not be seen as a failure or as wholly separate from the Velvet Revolution (Schwartz, 1970). The efforts made by citizens and political leaders alike during the 1960s were essential to the success that the country reached in 1989. The earliest student-led protests set a precedent for the “relatively spontaneous and peaceful nature” that marked the revolution as a whole (Goodwin, 1995: p. 588). Although the protests played a major role in both parts of the revolution, the Prague Spring likely would not have come about without some support from prominent political leaders such as Alexander Dubček. Thus, the Prague Spring established another important factor that contributed to the country’s eventual revolution: the need for simultaneous top-down and bottom-up revolutionary efforts.
Although both stages of the revolution contributed to the country’s eventual success, it is important to examine them as separate revolutionary situations. Looking at each movement critically provides insight into what causes a revolutionary situation to result in a revolutionary outcome and what can cause it to stagnate. This chapter will apply two main theorists to guide our analysis of the revolution: Theda Skocpol and Chalmers Johnson. Skocpol’s theories on revolution examined the structural forces behind a revolution. Skocpol’s writing focused on “social revolutions;” this type of revolution must have “basic changes in social structure and political structure [occurring] together in a mutually reinforcing fashion.” (Skocpol, 1979: p. 5) Skocpol’s writings help to explain the nature of the Czechoslovakian revolution and how both movements played out. Chalmers Johnson wrote extensively on the “Communist World” and the stages commonly found within Communist regimes. Johnson’s process theory states that a revolution depends on three conditions: disequilibrium, intransient elite, and a contingency factor. This chapter will apply those conditions to the Prague Spring and Velvet Revolution to explain how the Communist regime affected Czechoslovakia and why it eventually fell in the country.
The Prague Spring
The Prague Spring began in 1968, but the Czechoslovak people had a growing frustration for the Soviet Communists in the years leading up to the revolutionary situation. The Soviet’s control over Czechoslovakia began in 1945 when they freed the country from Nazi occupation. In February of 1948, the Soviets formally seized control over the country when the Communist Party rose to power and forced all other coalitions out of office. The Czechoslovak people fought against the idea of Communists taking full control of the nation from the beginning; they turned to then-president Edvard Beneš “to stand firm against the ever-rising flood of Communist intimidation and terror,” but he could not stop them from seizing power (Lukes, 2011: p. 442). In the years following, the Communist Party implemented many policies that only exacerbated the Czechoslovak people’s distrust of and frustration with the party. The Communists’ planned economy played a crucial role in creating mass frustration within the country. By the 1960s, the system created a “deep crisis” in the nation that affected the country’s population on all levels (Gliniecki, 2018: p. 2). By 1967, the majority of Czechoslovak citizens, from the working class to the elite, were ready for a change in government.
In January of 1968, the Soviet Union appointed a new leader to Czechoslovakia: Alexander Dubček. While he may have been a Communist, he offered a more humanitarian approach to the ideology. Dubček believed in “socialism with a human face” and advocated for “both decentralization and liberalization” within Czechoslovakia (Goodwin, 1995: p. 593 and Bandow, 2020) Although he advocated for more human rights than previous Communist leaders did, he only pushed the government for “reforms within strict limits” (Gliniecki, 2018: p. 7). Although his efforts may have had little significance in terms of policy, his words created a symbolic change in the minds of the Czechoslovak people. Following his rise to power, “the free press flourished, artists and writers spoke their minds” (Santora, p. 2018). Students and other intellectuals played a major role in the rest of the Prague Spring. In the months leading up to the Soviet’s invasion, the country saw a steady rise in peaceful student-led protests, demanding the liberalization of their country. These protests became a greater threat to the Soviet Union as the months wore on and the students got increased support from disparate groups like workers unions and intellectual elites (Gliniecki, 2018: p. 8). By August of that year, the Soviet Union realized how dangerous these peaceful protests were. Knowing that if the protesters got their way and Czechoslovakia became a more liberal country, it would be a “threat to [the Soviet Union’s] regional power and could signal weakness on the world stage” (Kopsa, 2019). On August 20, 1968, the Soviet Union sent Warsaw Pact troops to invade Czechoslovakia, detain Dubček, and stifle the peaceful protests with force, ending the Prague Spring.
Although the Prague Spring may have ended in August of 1968, the efforts towards democratization continued throughout the 21-year period between the two revolutionary situations. On January 16, 1969, less than five months after the Warsaw Pact troops invaded, a Charles University student named Jan Palach set himself on fire in order to protest the “erosion of Czechoslovakia’s reforms” under Soviet rule (Amstutz, 1969). Palach died shortly after his self-immolation, but he remained as a symbol for Czechoslovakia’s freedom for decades after. Dissent continued throughout the 1970s and 1980s while Communism still reigned in the country, but it did not exist on a large scale until the start of the Velvet Revolution.
The Velvet Revolution
The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia lasted from November to December 1989 and marked the beginning of a new democratic era for the people of the modern-day Czech Republic and Slovakia. The phrase “Velvet Revolution” is credited to Czech dissident Rita Klímová, and signifies the idea that the revolutionary outcome was obtained without the use of violence (Kopsa, 2019). Looking at it from a larger context, the Velvet Revolution occurred around the same time other Eastern European countries struggled towards freedom from communist rule. While Communist party factions negotiated themselves out of power over a period of several months in places like Poland and Hungary, the collapse of Communism in Czechoslovakia happened much faster – occurring over several weeks instead. As a result, the supporters and leaders of the Velvet Revolution had to take responsibility for the government almost immediately after Communism fell (Wolchik, 1990: p. 414). They were led by the longtime dissident and human rights activist Vaclav Havel, the first non-Communist government emerged in Czechoslovakia for the first time in 41 years.
In the late 1980s, Czech and Slovak citizens began to openly challenge the Communist system: dissident groups formed, the number of unauthorized protests and demonstrations increased, relationships were formed between longtime opposition figures and new activists, and citizens became radicalized to the oppositional cause (Wolchik, 1990: p. 414). In 1989, protests began, occurring as early as January, marking the 20th anniversary of the self-immolation of Jan The Czechoslovak Revolution 5 Palach. The turning point, however, came on November 17th with the largest protest in 20 years. On this first night of protests, thousands of students marched peacefully through Prague’s city center until they were stopped by riot police conducting a cordon of the area. The two sides came face-to-face, and though the protests were nonviolent, the police cracked down hard on the protesters by sealing off escape routes and attacking them physically (Steinzova, 2019). Word of the authorities’ brutality from the first night of protests spread, and rather than help to quell the demonstrations, it instead fueled their rapid growth and continuation. On November 21st, the fifth consecutive day of protests, crowds of demonstrators numbered around 200,000 people in Prague’s Wenceslas Square. On November 24th, the crowd grew to around 300,000 people. By November 26th, the protests had grown so large that they were forced to move to a larger space to accommodate the incredible numbers; about half a million people crowded together in Letna Park in Prague to hear addresses from Havel and other opposition leaders (Steinzova, 2019). On November 28th, after constant protests and workers’ strikes, the Communists announced they would cede their power. On December 29th, 1989, the revolutionary situation ultimately resulted in a revolutionary outcome when Havel was appointed as interim President of Czechoslovakia (Kopsa, 2019 and Steinzova, 2019).
Skocpol’s Theories on Revolution
Theda Skocpol’s theory of revolution aptly explains both the Prague Spring as well as the Velvet Revolution. Skocpol’s theory of revolutionary situations revolves around structural forces leading to revolutionary situations. She also presents the idea of a “social revolution.” A social revolution, as defined by Skocpol, is a change in social structure as well as government institutions led by a class-based revolt from below (Skocpol, 1979). To differentiate from a normal revolutionary situation, in a social revolution, it is important that the government The Czechoslovak Revolution 6 institutions are not the only things that change, it has to include the change in social structure as well. Skocpol also put forward two necessary conditions for a revolutionary situation: a crisis of state that the government cannot meet leading to a division in either the elites or the army, and patterns of class dominance that determine which social class will take advantage of the revolutionary situation to lead said situation. (Skocpol, 1979). International context is also important in Skocpol’s theory, as observation of the events in the international community serves as an important piece of revolutionary situations. Both the Prague Spring and Velvet Revolution exhibit the qualities Skocpol describes to be classified as social revolutions. It is important to note, however, that the outcome of the Prague Spring functioned more as a precursor to the Velvet Revolution than a normal revolutionary outcome as described by Skocpol. Understanding how and why both revolutionary situations came to be in Czechoslovakia and how they resolved is better understood when applying Skocpol’s theory to both.
Following World War II, the Soviet Union quickly took over control in Czechoslovakia. Although there were hopes within the country that leadership would come from within, a bureaucracy quickly formed taking control of the power, as well as the economy. The hopes for a worker-led economy were dashed by the lack of a worker-led democracy (Gliniecki, 2018). By establishing a distinct class of the wealthy bureaucracy led by Soviet rulers, the beginnings of a class struggle were in place. Quickly thereafter, some civil unrest began. The working class wanted control of this new society and wanted a democracy that the people were behind, but the Soviet bureaucracy stopped this from happening and, instead, implemented a planned economy. At the start of the 1960s, the Czech economy began to falter. Since their industrial sector failed to function well, the average member of the working class experienced a loss in quality of life, adding to the already established frustrations of lack of autonomy (Thompson & Llewellyn, 2020).
Thereafter in 1967, intellectuals and students began to express discontent with peaceful protests and attempted discussion with the local Communist party (Gliniecki, 2018). This, as well as observations of the fall of Poland, Hungary, and Eastern Germany serve as important international context for Skocpol’s theory since Czechoslovakia could observe other societies able to break free from the Soviet grip. Following Skocpol’s theory, there was international context and reasons to revolt, as well a pattern of class dominance which led to the workers becoming inspired to ask for social and institutional changes. This leads into Skocpol’s other necessary condition for a revolutionary situation since the local Communist party began to differ in action and belief from the Soviet Communist party. Dubček agreed to reforms within the country, and although they were meek, the bureaucracy was split (Gliniecki, 2018). Both of Skocpol’s necessary conditions for a revolutionary situation were met during the Prague Spring. The structural forces within the country began pushing for social and institutional reforms. The bureaucracy was not able to take immediate control of the situation, so the Czech workers were able to secure reforms to allow other parties to be a part of the government and economic change. This, by Skocpol’s definition, was a social revolution. The outcome was determined by the struggles the workers had in their revolt, since Warsaw Pact troops were sent into Czechoslovakia to push back said reforms. The working class were not able to secure complete autonomy, but they still succeeded in achieving social and political reform via a class-based movement from below. Skocpol’s theory lends itself well to understanding the proceedings of the Prague Spring, from the revolutionary situations to the revolutionary outcome.
The application of Skocpol’s theory for the onset of the Velvet revolution is rather similar to that of the Prague Spring. Similar to that time, the world context was permissive for a revolutionary situation. Gorbachev, the president of the Soviet Union at the time, was calling for reforms of the Communist party. On top of this, the Berlin wall fell merely 8 days before a particularly large protest within the Velvet Revolution. (Kopsa, 2019). The global context loaned itself to the ideology that the Czechoslovak people could fight against the bureaucracy and gain independence, on top of the partial success they had following the Prague Spring (Glenn, 1999). With the permissive global context already loaning itself to a revolutionary situation, both of Skocpol’s necessary conditions were on their way to being met. On November 17th, 1989, during a student demonstration for the 50th anniversary of a student’s death at the hands of the Nazi party, the military police intervened. The day after, an alleged report came out that a student had been killed during said intervention (Glenn, 1999). This led to a student group as well as many theatres calling for strikes, quickly leading into another call for reform from the government, as previously desired during the Prague Spring.
Mass protests against the state broke out through the end of 1988, with over 10,000 people in attendance (Luers, 1990). This fulfilled Skocpol’s other necessary condition, a crisis that the state could not control. Sure enough, it led to a dissonance between those in power. The state attempted to use the military to quell the rebellions, which led to the arrest of Havel, who was a spearhead for the revolutionary group. Havel’s arrest became a strong unifying factor for the Czech people. A petition to get him out of jail garnered support from not just the students and theatres leading the protests, but from other groups within the country as well. At the same time, draft bills were put forward in Parliament for social reform and change. On November 27th, following a relatively successful protest by the Civic Forum, that established themselves as the The Czechoslovak Revolution 9 revolutionary group, as well as the spokespeople for negotiations with the state. (Glenn, 1999). The establishment of the Civic Forum meets the criteria for another one of Skocpol’s necessary conditions of revolution. The pattern of the bureaucrats dominating over the working class gave rise, once again, to a class-based movement from below which took advantage of the situation and was a general displeasure with the Soviet bureaucrats and took control of the revolutionary situation.
On November 28th, the Communist party announced it would give up its control over Czechoslovakia. Following this, Havel became the Interim president of Czechoslovakia on December 29th, 1989 (Kopsa, 2019 and Steinzova, 2019). The revolutionary outcome observed in the aftermath of the Velvet Revolution would be expected, as per Skocpol’s theory. The people had support from the international community in securing a regime change, there was dissonance from the Communist party, and Dubček was willing to bow under pressure; all of these factors led to a social revolution. The Czechoslovak people were finally able to have their own economy controlled by their own as well as their own democracy, free from the rule of bureaucrats. The social system changed as well as the government institutions, and the revolutionary outcome of the social revolution that was the Velvet Revolution resulted in the people gaining freedom from Soviet control.
Chalmers Johnson and Changes in the Communist World
Chalmers Johnson expanded on actor-oriented, structural, and conjunction theories of revolution with his idea of process theories. As discussed in Chapter Eight, Johnson’s process theory requires disequilibrium, intransient elite, and a contingency factor. In the revolutionary situation of the Czechoslovakian revolution, the Prague Spring, the disequilibrium that led to mass protests and demonstrations for reforms was the planned economy. Under the Stalinist planned economy, the Communist bureaucrats in each state determined which industry they wanted to focus on. In Czechoslovakia, by focusing on heavy machinery, rather than consumer goods, the economic growth rate fell to 0% (Gliniecki, 2018). With the Communist regime refusing to reform the economy to limited capitalism, this equates to a disequilibrium that the state refuses to fix for the people. Even though Alexander Dubček was forced to roll back his plan for political, economic, and social reforms, the desire to fight disequilibrium followed the masses until the next revolutionary situation, the Velvet Revolution of 1989.
As for Johnson’s intransient elite condition, these were bureaucrats in the Communist party who either fought to keep Stalinism as the population began demonstrating for reforms, or bureaucrats who reinforced normalization policies after Warsaw troops rolled into Prague and Dubček repealed his reforms. Antonín Novotný, the First Secretary of the Communist Party in Czechoslovakia before Alexander Dubček was a hard-lined Stalinist. He and his supporters in the bureaucracy are the intransient elite in the first revolutionary situation. Once Dubček took Novotny’s place in office, he relaxed censorship of the media so they could openly criticize Novotny and his supporters in hopes of eliminating their ideas from the bureaucracy (Kalvoda, 1978: p. 356). Clearly this open criticism only lasted until the reforms were reversed and Dubček was taken out of office in 1969. Dubček was replaced by Gustáv Husák, reinitiating the intransient elite in the Czechoslovak bureaucracy. In order to buy the passivity of the population, the normalization process, initiated by Husák, allowed for slightly more availability to consumer goods (Pierce, 2009). While this intransient elite’s plan of normalization held off demonstrators for a few decades, they were not able to hold control forever as other elites within the party, intellectual elites, and artist elites began defecting.
Johnson’s final condition in his process theory is contingency, or something that ignites the public to attempt a revolutionary situation. Many contingency factors can be argued for both the Prague Spring and the Velvet Revolution, but only a few will be focused on in this chapter. As previously discussed, Dubček eliminated censorship of the press in hopes of having the masses criticize Novotny and his supporters. Journalists did this at first, but then began using their new freedom to criticize the whole Communist system (Kalvoda, 1978: p. 356). The removal of censorship is a contingency factor that allowed people to spread revolutionary ideas against the dysfunction of the state to the masses. Dubček coming into power can also be seen as a contingency factor. His reforms to the communist system sparked nationalist liberalization.
In terms of the Velvet Revolution, one of the most profound contingency factors was the “Sinatra” doctrine presented by Mikhail Gorbachev. In October 1989, Gorbachev announced that the Soviet Union, “had no right, moral or political right, to interfere in the events…” (Keller, 1989). Without fear of Soviet intervention, the people of Czechoslovakia felt safe to demonstrate, protest, and strike. Although it did not stop the police from cracking down on demonstrators during Jan Palach week, it did prevent large-scale military terror from the Soviet soldiers, which encouraged the masses to continue protesting for their rights.
Along with the process theory, Chalmers Johnson’s theory on changes in Totalitarian Communism also applies to the Czechoslovakia revolution. In 1966, a committee of scholars, the Planning Committee for Comparative Communist Studies, was appointed to discuss new models for explaining changes in Totalitarian Communist systems (Johnson, 1970: p.1). The ideas that came from these meetings were composed into a volume, Changes in Communist Systems, with Chalmers Johnson as the editor and writer of the first chapter. In his chapter, Johnson outlines four changes that are sometimes observed in Communist regimes. The first being changes in the political system, specifically from a one-party system to multi-party system (1970: p. 3). Second, when there is a change in the state dependence on terror to force a desired behavior from the public (1970: p. 3). Third, when there are changes in the economic structure. Last, when there is an externally imposed Communist regime, there can be changes in the freedoms of the formerly independent states (1970: p. 3). Johnson argues that when one of these changes occur, there is a domino effect in which the population now has expectations of change in other areas (1970: p. 3). These changes can lead to revolutionary situations in Communist regimes, unlike in other totalitarian regimes.
When the Communist revolutionary ideology is injected into new states, there are two components in the party’s strategy. The first is called “goal culture”, which is the ideology’s “image of the ultimate utopia, its idealized contrast to the present” (1970: p.7). The second component is called “transfer culture”, and it gives the steps to policy formation that will progress the society towards the goal culture (1970: p.7). In the case of Czechoslovakia, the goal culture of the Soviet Union and the Communist party was to have control over the industry, economy, and social affairs within the state. Under Soviet rule, Czechoslovakia added to the spread of Communist control, along with the neighboring Eastern European states. In order to obtain this goal culture, the Soviets used a transfer culture of coercion, threats of repression, forced industrialization, elimination of property sovereignty, and others to maintain their monopoly on Eastern European states. When the mobilization of the transfer culture is not supported by the people, they become alienated (1970: p.11). After the Red Army saved Czechoslovakia from Nazi occupation, they were forced into Stalin’s idea of a planned economy. This tactic of transfer culture made the Czech and Slovak people alienated from the Communist party because they were not prepared for, or informed of, drastic revolutionary changes both politically and economically. It can be argued that the persistence of transfer culture in Czechoslovakia, after the threat of Germany died down, became unnecessary in the eyes of the population.
Anything distracting from the overarching goal culture—in this case the goal mobilization was rapid industrialization of Czechoslovakia— is automatically condemned out of fear that the Communist regime could fall. Johnson explains that mobilizing only the economic sector leads the public to demand mobilization in other sectors, specifically the political and social sectors. This is why the reforms presented by Dubček made masses of the population so hopeful, with his policies of personal freedoms. In 1989, the main protest groups, including the Civic Forum were pushing to have negotiations with the Communist party. This negotiation went against the Communist goal culture, so during the Jan Palach demonstration week, the police cracked down on the protestors. The Communist party finally gave in to the Civic Forum. When Civic Forum was finally invited to negotiate with the Communist party, they were granted seats for representation alongside the Communists.
Moving to multi-party representation was Johnson’s first change in Totalitarian Communist regimes. Additionally, in November, after being attacked on the 17th by police forces, a mass strike was planned for the next day. During this strike, the police forces were told not to interfere (Kopsa, 2019). Giving up the use of terror is the second change in Johnson’s theory of Communist systems. The third change came along with the negotiations with the Communist party; they moved from a centralized economy to a more market focused economy. The final change embodies the whole revolution in Czechoslovakia. They were able to become an independent nation, apart from the Soviet Union.
Conclusion
The revolution of what is formerly known as Czechoslovakia is a rare case, but in this chapter, we used the theories of Theda Skocpol and Chalmers Johnson to better understand why the Prague Spring and Velvet Revolution occurred the way that they did. Defining the revolutionary situations as “social revolutions,” as according to Skocpol, explains why both movements came about. The political, economic, and social structures of Czechoslovakia made it possible for the revolutions to occur, but those structures were not weak enough to allow for a successful revolutionary outcome until 1989. Johnson’s writing examined many of the factors that were essential to a Communist regime’s success or defeat and why, after more than a 40-year period of control over Czechoslovakia, those conditions no longer made them successful in the country.
Works Cited
Amstutz, Jon G., The Czechs remain loyal to Palach, The Jerusalem Post, 1969.
Bandow, Doug, How the Prague Spring Led to the Fall of Communism, Foundation for Economic Freedom, 2020.
Glenn, John, 1999, Competing Challengers and Contested Outcomes to State Breakdown: The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia, Oxford University Press, pp. 187-211.
Gliniecki, Ben, 50 years after the Prague Spring – what are the lessons for today? Socialist Appeal, 2018.
Goodwin, Jeff, Old Regimes and Revolutions in the Second and Third Worlds: A Comparative Perspective, Social Science History, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 575-604.
Hartikainen, Ilana, 2019, The Velvet Revolution in the Regions. History Today.
Kalvoda, Josef, “The Rise and Fall of Alexander Dubček,” The Journal of Social and Political Sciences, 1978.
Keller, Bill, Gorbachev, in Finland, Disavows Any Right to Regional Intervention, The New York Times. 1989 https://www.nytimes.com/1989/10/26/world/gorbachev-in-finland-disavows-any-right-of-regional-intervention.html
Kopsa, Andy, “Czechoslovakia’s Velvet Revolution Started 30 Years Ago – But It Was Decades in the Making.” Time, 2019
Luers, William, Czechoslovakia: Road to Revolution. Foreign Affairs, 1990. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/1990-03-01/czechoslovakia-road-revolution
Lukes, Igor, The 1948 Coup d’État in Prague Through the Eyes of the American Embassy, Diplomacy & Statecraft, issue 3, pp. 431-449.
Johnson, Chalmers & Azrael, Jeremy, R., Change in Communist Systems, Chapter 1, Stanford University Press, 1970.
Pierce, Gina M., 1968 and Beyond: From Prague Spring to “Normalization”, University of Pittsburgh Center for Russian and East European Studies, 2009.
Santora, Marc, 2018, 50 Years After Prague Spring, Lessons on Freedom (and a Broken Spirit), The New York Times.
Image Attribution
Havla 1989 by MD is licensed under CC BY SA 3.0


Module 1: Sampling and Data
Course Contents at a Glance
Barbara Illowsky & OpenStax et al.
The following list shows a summary of the topics covered in this e-book.
Module 1: Sampling and Data
- Definitions of Statistics, Probability, and Key Terms
- Sampling and Data
- Frequency, Frequency Tables, and Levels of Measurement
- Experimental Design and Ethics
Module 2: Descriptive Statistics
- Stem-and-Leaf Graphs (Stemplots)
- Measures of the Location of the Data
- Histograms, Frequency Polygons, and Time Series Graphs
- Box Plots
- Measures of the Center of the Data
- Skewness and the Mean, Median, and Mode
- Measures of the Spread of Data
- When to use each measure of Central Tendency
Module 3: Probability
- The Terminology of Probability
- Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events
- Two Basic Rules of Probability
- Contingency Tables
- Tree and Venn Diagrams
Module 4: Discrete Random Variables
- Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for a Discrete Random Variable
- Mean or Expected Value and Standard Deviation
- Binomial Distribution
- Geometric Distribution
- Poisson Distribution
Module 5: Continuous Random Variables
- Continuous Probability Functions
- The Uniform Distribution
- The Exponential Distribution
Module 6: Normal Distribution
- The Standard Normal Distribution
- Using the Normal Distribution
Module 7: The Central Limit Theorem
- The Central Limit Theorem for Sample Means (Averages)
- The Central Limit Theorem for Sums
- Using the Central Limit Theorem
Module 8: Confidence Intervals
- A Single Population Mean using the Normal Distribution
- A Single Population Mean using the Student Distribution
- A Population Proportion
Module 9: Hypothesis Testing With One Sample
- Null and Alternative Hypotheses
- Outcomes and the Type I and Type II Errors
- Distributions Needed for Hypothesis Testing
- Rare Events, the Sample, Decision and Conclusion
- Additional Informational and Full Hypothesis Test Examples
Module 10: Hypothesis Testing With Two Samples
- Two Population Means with Unknown Standard Deviations
- Two Population Means with Known Standard Deviations
- Comparing Two Independent Population Proportions
- Matched or Paired Samples
Module 11: The Chi Square Distribution
- Facts About the Chi-Square Distribution
- Goodness-of-Fit Test
- Test of Independence
- Test for Homogeneity
- Comparison of the Chi-Square Tests
- Test of a Single Variance
Module 12: Linear Regression and Correlation
- Linear Equations
- Scatter Plots
- The Regression Equation
- Testing the Significance of the Correlation Coefficient
- Prediction
- Outliers
Module 13: F-Distribution and the One-Way ANOVA
- One-Way ANOVA
- The F Distribution and the F-Ratio
- Facts about the F Distribution
- Test of Two Variances
- Relationships in an ANOVA Table
Module 14: Multiple and Logistic Regression
- Model Selection
- Checking Model Assumptions Using Graphs
- Line Fitting, Residuals, and Correlation
- Fitting a Line by Least Linear Regression
- Types of Outliers in Linear Regression
- Inference for Linear Regression


2
Austin Naples, Hannah Emigh, Ryan Danley
This section of “Wage Differentials,” will primarily focus on how geographical location plays a role in wage differentials. This will be done by analyzing several variables that may influence or cause wage differentials to occur throughout the United States. Particularly, how various locations differ in wage, such as; Urban versus Rural areas, the impacts of pollution on health and productivity and the risks associated, differences in right to work states versus non-right to work, and how each of these variables plays a role in the dynamics of wage differentials across the United States.
In analyzing the various wage differentials across the United States we will elaborate by conducting a thorough examination of historical data. This will help to better understand the overall trend and relationship of each variable in which each variation influences these outcomes, year over year, and the trends of growth within the economy. While also analyzing how severe each location may vary in comparison to an individual’s income. Evidence to support this research and data was found from, “The National Longitudinal Study of 1979,” which will be the basis for the conducted research and empirical data study.
Urban Versus Rural
Geographical differences have been the subject of wage differential studies since the mid-20th century. During this early testing period, economists primarily looked at the effects of moving and how it could potentially impact earnings. It is because of these early studies which found that when accounting for differences in experience or ability that there was little to no impact on earnings from moving (Lansing, 1967.) There are very few scenarios where there was an impact, which could be measurable, on earnings from moving. For example, those who move from rural areas to urban areas and those who move from the “deep south” to more northern states (Lansing, 1967). Those who move from poorer areas do not see any effects from moving to high income areas. This phenomenon may be occuring due to individuals in poorer areas having disadvantages such as lower education quality which hinders their wage earning potential. This was still true even after leaving that low income area (Lansing, 1967). This discovery put into perspective the dangers of low income areas like, the ghetto or places ravaged by outsourcing, become traps for those living there. This could lead some to believe that the best course of action is increasing labor laws in a way that would bring back some of these dying areas.
By making it harder to decrease wages or downscale employment, companies will be forced to decrease labor cost by investing in new and more efficient technologies (Rothstein, 1989). The idea here is if you increase the level of technology in a firm, this raises productivity and therefore increases one’s earnings potential. The relationship between productivity and wages is one of the strongest contributors to income inequality. As found from Lansing’s work there is a positive income effect on moving from rural to urban areas we can attribute this difference to differences in productivity that come from living in a city or a rural area. This is because high skilled workers will go work in urban areas this means that the area will have benefits such as a higher quality education and the ability to share ideas allows for higher income in areas like cities and other urban areas (Raunch,1993).
Another aspect that plays in wage differentials in areas that are urban versus rural is regional price parity. Regional price parity or RPP is the measure of various price levels across the United States. Regional price parity pairs well with the analysis of urban versus rural in discussion of wage differentials because it estimates the average cost of goods across the United States and shows how it affects income distribution (Bishop 8). RPP can be broken down even further by metro status, sex, race, and family income (Bishop 3). By incorporating RPP with wage differential, it can give a better picture of income inequality, vertical equity, and tax progressivity. In past research, it appears compared to other countries, like India and Brazil, showed that rural advantages diminished as they became richer (Bishop 2). However, due to lower housing prices and fuel prices, the United States’ rural advantage doesn’t diminish. Bishop’s finding in his research for his article, “U.S. Income Comparisons with Regional Price Parity Adjustments”, found that housing prices highly correlated with the regional price parity, however there should be adjustments made for spatial differences. By including spatial differences, it would help make a more comprehensive welfare comparison for individuals within a geographic area.
As we moved further into the 90’s we saw the expansion of tech industries and the rise of Silicon Valley. This led economists to wonder how the concentration of industries would impact wages. This trend seems to only impact highly specialized industries, like software development or wine (Ellison, 1994). This distinction between urban and rural areas became more pronounced as we made our way into the 2000’s. This made economists curious about the differences they could find between the economies. One approach to this was observing urban cities and regional areas to see if the density in cities causes some differences in how its economy develops. Many of the regional differences observed can be attributed to decisions made prior to the industrial age for example the Northeast adopted industrialization early on while southern regions relied more on slavery which slowed their development down (Kim, 2004). The Urban cities successes can be attributed to “Inventive activity, productivity, nominal wages, immigrants, government, and entertainment” all favoring urban cities economies.(Kim 2004).
“This research suggests that the United States economy is veering toward a less broadly dynamic, less entrepreneurial, and more geographically concentrated equilibrium. With the United States mostly reliant on a few high-performing geographies…. abundant in talent and capital to carry national growth. Even in the short period of time analyzed, patterns have reversed. Large urban counties dominate where they once lagged, while small counties have nearly disappeared from the map of recovery altogether (EIG.org, May 2016).”
Another feature of industry and income inequality, is how labor laws play into effect. Corporations certainly contribute to the large economic disparity (Fishman 1). Some corporations tend to care more about their upper-level employees than their lower-level employees. Corporations that choose to not follow strictly follow labor laws underpay employees and take away certain rights (Fishman 1). The solution to this problem would be for corporations to do a better job at following labor laws and to develop family-sustaining jobs (Fishman 1). If corporations were to pursue these solutions, they can assist in decreasing the size of the economic disparity within their own company. By corporations spreading their care to lower-level employees and following labor laws, it would help close the wide wage/income gap within their business.
Health Impacts on Productivity Due to Pollution
As industries expand and technology advances, the rate of pollution increases. The expansion of industry, not only affects pollution, but affects economic growth. In Baek’s article, he looked into the connection between income inequality, carbon emissions, and economic growth. Baek had found that as income inequality increases carbon emissions increases (Baek 1436). If his research is true then the connection between income inequality and carbon emissions is positive in the long run and short run. Another discovery is that there is a negative relationship between income and carbon emissions, meaning that economic growth contributes to a better environment (Baek 1436).The reason behind this relationship is that people who care more about the environment as it gets cleaner, they are more active and productive in their communities.
There are two main effects that play into working time and ecological output. The two effects are scale and composition(Fitzgerald 1857). The scale effect is the response of higher working hours leading to higher levels of economic output, income, and consumption (Fitzgerald 1857). This is referred to as the “work and spend cycle” (Fitzgerald 1857). Due to this effect, those who work less hours consume less and have a lower ecological footprint. However, those who would work more and consume more, would generate higher ecological footprints. The consumption effect is the influence of working time on GDP (Fitzgerald 1857). Fitzgerald stated that the consumption effect highly relied on the house-hold decision. Households who work less are likely to be more ecologically intensive compared to those who work more (Fitzgerald 1857). Although the relationship between pollution and productivity is positive, over time the amount of productivity could pay off leading to lower levels of pollution in the future. If the economy grows due to high levels of productivity, then the amount of labor hours may eventually decrease because of a prosperous economy (Fitzgerald 1856). This example shows growth that is sustainable, for both the economy and the environment. It wouldn’t necessarily mean there are layoffs, just fewer working hours. This helps the economy grow consistently and sustainably, without majorly interrupting the environment.
The Environmental Protection Agency in the United States has taken serious action to help ensure safer air since 1970. Although the United States air pollution continues to harm people’s health and the environment still today. “Under the Clean Air Act, EPA continues to work with state and local government including other federal agencies to help reduce and mitigate the harmful air pollution. Pollution can cause various health and environmental impacts.An extensive body of scientific evidence shows the long-term and short-term exposures to fine particle pollution, also known as fine particulate matter (PM2.5), can cause premature death and harmful effects on the cardiovascular system, including increased hospital admissions and emergency department visits for heart attacks and strokes. Scientific evidence also links PM to harmful respiratory effects, including asthma attacks (EPA.gov, September 2019)”
“Ozone is a colorless gas, created when emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds react with one another. Ozone can increase the frequency of asthma attacks, cause shortness of breath, aggravate lung diseases, and cause permanent damage to the lungs through long-term exposure. Elevated ozone levels are linked to increases in hospitalizations, emergency room visits and premature death. Pollution also causes environmental damage and can impair visibility. Fine particles can be emitted or formed from gaseous emissions such as sulfur dioxide or nitrogen oxides (EPA.gov, September 2019).”
After analyzing and studying the risks associated with different geographical locations such as; North v.s. South, and Urban v.s. Rural within the United States there are some areas, particularly cities, in which have experienced rapid economic industrialization. Rapid industrialization; such as the building of factories, and various evolutionary technological advances or the use of devices which emit dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses were found to exist in more modernized areas. These areas that had the worst pollution were mostly urban areas instead of rural areas which are producing pollution at higher levels.
In turn, this exposure poses a significantly higher risk to an individual’s health. Living in a more polluted area, which does cause harm to your health, has correlated a higher earning potential. As mentioned earlier, corporations have to spend more money on protecting their employees’ health. With a higher risk associated, there is a higher return on earnings which means the lower the risk the lesser the return on earnings will be, opposed to an individual taking a higher level of risk.
O-Ring Model Effect
“There are several implications one can derive from this model.
- Workers performing the same task earn higher wages in a high-skill firm than in a low-skill firm;
- Wages will be more than proportionately higher in developed countries than would be assumed by measurements of skill levels;
- Workers will consider human capital investments in light of similar investments by those around them;
- This model magnifies the effect of local bottlenecks which also reduce the expected returns to skill;
- O-ring effects across firms can create national low-production traps. (Kremer,1993)”
Kremer’s O-ring Model helps explain brain drain and help better understand international economic disparity. As Kremer puts it, “If strategic complementarity is sufficiently strong, macroeconomically identical nations or groups within nations could settle into equilibria with different levels of human capital (Kremer, 1993).” The model also explains how quantity of a good cannot be substituted for a better quality of another good. Workers of similar skill will be matched together with the schedule of wages as a function of that workers skill level. Small differences in skill lead to large differences in wages and output, so wage and productivity differentials between countries with different skill levels are enormous. Now try to imagine it happening on a lower level within the United States. Firms will offer jobs to only some workers rather than paying all workers their estimated marginal product. If tasks are performed sequentially, high-skill workers will be allocated to later stages of production. “If firms can choose among technologies with different numbers of tasks, the highest skill workers will use the highest technology (Kremer, 1993).” These predictions of the model correlate to a collection of factual and proven evidence of how employees are grouped together around the world today. “Although these facts may be due to a variety of causes, together they suggest that O-ring production functions are empirically relevant. Small differences between countries in such subsidies or in exogenous factors such as geography or the quality of the educational system lead to multiplier effects that create large differences in worker skill (Kremer, 1993).”
Ultimately, Kremer’s O-Ring Model helps to explain the variations in wage differentials due to high-skilled versus low-skilled workers by geographical location as it causes a multiplier effect. This methodology is quite simple: high-skilled workers are grouped with other high-skilled workers and low-skilled workers are placed with other low-skill workers. When this grouping occurs it causes income inequality which stunts growth from surpassing a given threshold, eventually stunting the overall growth of the economy. Which in turn, then causes low-skilled workers who are unable to earn higher potential wages from advancing to higher paying and higher skilled jobs.
Right to Work States
Federal law enforces the right of employees to not be forced by joining a union even if it is a requirement for employment. Right to work (RTW) laws allow employees access to the same benefits of a union contract. “This includes; the right to have the union take up their grievance if their employer abuses them without paying any of the cost. This means that if an employer mistreats a worker who does not pay a union fee, the union must prosecute that worker’s grievance just as it would a dues-paying member, even if it costs tens of thousands of dollars. Non-dues paying workers would also receive higher wages and benefits that their dues paying co-workers enjoy. RTW laws have nothing to do with whether people can be forced to join a union or contribute to a political cause they do not support; that is already illegal. Nor do RTW laws have anything to do with the right to have a job or be provided a job (EPI.org, 2019).”
Right to work laws were designed to help a unions’ ability in assisting an employee with more bargaining power, with their employers for improved benefits, wages, and safer working conditions. Although unionization raises that of the workers wage both for an individual union member, as well for non-union workers. This research shows that both union and non-union workers in right to work states have lower wages and fewer benefits, than that of many comparable workers in other areas of the United States where they are considered to live in a non-right to work state.
“In an EPI paper from 2011, Elise Gould and Heidi Shierholz estimate that wages in RTW states are 3.2 percent lower on average than wages in non-RTW states, even after controlling for a full set of worker characteristics and state labor market conditions. Gould and Shierholz (2011) also find that workers in RTW states are less likely to have employer-sponsored health insurance and pension coverage. (Shierholz and Gould, 2011)”
The difference between certain workers in a right to work state and workers in a non-right to work state is that; workers in non-right to work states are more likely to be in a union and paid more. It was estimated that non-right to work states were 2.4 times more likely to be protected under a union contract than right to work state workers are. “Average hourly wages, the primary variable of interest, are 15.8 percent higher in non-RTW states ($23.93 in non-RTW states versus $20.66 in RTW states). Median wages are 16.6 percent higher in non-RTW states ($18.40 vs. $15.79) (Gould and Kimball, 2015).”
This being said, workers in non-right to work states end up making more in potential and realized earnings than right to work states do. Workers may want to migrate to those states depending on their current socio-economic standpoint and if the trade off of moving would be more beneficial than staying at their current place of employment.
Empirical Research
| Model Female: OLS, using observations 1-2367 (n = 2281) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Missing or incomplete observations dropped: 86 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dependent variable: l_Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, variant HC1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Model Male: OLS, using observations 1-2465 (n = 2389) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Missing or incomplete observations dropped: 76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dependent variable: l_Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, variant HC1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Empirical Research Overview
Using the National Longitudinal Survey 1979 data set the model above was created to find the effects on wage differentials by geographical location. The 79 data was chosen over the 97 data due to the fact the people involved would be seen at the end of their income potential as they enter into their mid 50’s. Also,it allows evaluation of data for the entire amount of people who have graduated from universities.This data will be used as general theory that predicts those who go to college would see much larger gains in their careers. However, due to this general theory, data was lost in this category because it went two years back to 2014 data.
Using roughly 5000 observations from the NLSY, the model was able to include key variables to help separate effects from geographical impact. These variables included Work Experience, Ability (Measured through AFQT score), Race, and Educational attainment. The variables chosen act as proxies for what in theory impacts wage. For example, work experience is considered a desirable trait that can boost productivity and lead to higher wages. The dummy variables for education play a similar role as they measure skills as many going to college go with the objective of procuring the skills to enter into a desired job market. The variables we chose to include outside of the geography-related data were based on what economic theory predicts to have an impact on wage differentials. We then ran two versions of the model one with all male participants and the other female to help identify differences in genders.
Summary of Variables
The NLSY 79 study allowed us to include a wide array of variables of which we only included a small number from 2014. The variables that were chosen were backed by theory and past studies and whose impact if unaccounted for we believe would taint the rest of the study. Educational attainment is a great proxy for skill, the reason being that those seeking educational attainment are forgoing wages today as an investment in skills. This investment has a return based on the difference in wages compared to an individual who did not make such an investment. The relationship between the two is well documented as the link can be traced to “1890 to 1910 where earnings in occupations that required greater levels of schooling were far higher than those that require little education”(Goldin 2007). After education comes job experience and that will allow individuals to obtain even more skills which can improve efficiency or quality of the work. By improving in ways that increase the value of your work you will see increases to wages. For example consider that you have 2 economists working and one has 10 years of experience and the other has 1 year. The one with 10 is more familiar with programs, office procedures, better office relationships, ect could lead to the experienced economist receiving higher wages.
Using AFQT scores is much like using an I.Q test only if it is administered through the military. Using I.Q measures give a good indication of the person’s ability to learn and adapt which is why they are being used as a proxy for ability differences. Ability is a difficult measure to have and even I.Q isn’t a perfect predictor of ability if you had 2 people in the same blue collar profession for example that job may require something other than I.Q to succeed.
While much of the difference people see in wages come from ability or skills that give those workers with high wages at an advantage but some workers experience discrimination. Discrimination is when workers of one group may be viewed as less diserable by employers so even when these group are offering to be paid less employers will pay a premium to hire their preferred groups. This could affect the regional measure as attitudes and demographics differ by region for example their may be more discrimination in one area due to a cultural difference meaning the impact to moving to that area would be overstated. To account for discrimination we put in dummy variables for race and sex as these 2 catagories are seen as wide sources of discrimination. For race we measured the effect of being black or hispanic against that of non black or hispanics this will show the impact from being black and hispanic compared to other races. Gender differences can be seen by the differences in the male and female models constant. By running two models we are able to see the differences each factor has on wage differential given gender as well.
After accounting for the variables that we believed would hinder our ability to measure the true impact of geography we broke geography down into 2 variables. Urban and rural environments were used to measure the impact on living in a city with much more job opportunity would impact wages. The model ran rural areas against the impact of urban areas using dummy variables to see the difference between the 2. The model also captures regional differences using Southern, Northeastern, North central, and Western regions of the U.S to capture the effect we ran the South, Northeast, and North central regions against the West. This will let us see the impact of large cities like L.A and Seattle in the west against the northeast cities like NYC and Boston. At the same time the model will show the impact of communities in middle america who have been hit hard by poor economic strategies, outsourcing, and trade policies.
Test
Using the variables from the NLSY study we decided to run a OLS regression model against the log of income earned from wages and salary. Before we conduct the OLS regression we first manipulated our variables so they would function within the Gretl stats program. Before running the OLS we first had to do some basic manipulation of the variables such as creating the log of income and adding a squared work experience to help more accurately capture the % impact our variables have. We then dummified the variables Region, Urban/Rural, Race, and Highest grade completed so we can test the effects of the qualitative variables by testing their effect against the variable left out. We then ran the test with robust standard errors to help deal with any Heteroskedasticity that the variables present. Because all the data was gathered in 2014 the data is cross sectional and isn’t faced with an autocorrelation problem.
Results
The OLS test gives an estimate of the impact each factor has on the % change in income and the statistical significance of the result is measured using t-ratios. For reference, we are looking for t-ratios above 1.97 to say that the result is statistically different from 0. By looking at the two models we see that the impact of the variables varies significantly by gender. While initially there are bad signs for the data mostly the low r2 this can be explained by our use of cross sectional data which is known for producing results with a low r2 .
The Male model found significant impacts from some regions, race, IQ, work experience, and education. The only region to show a statistical impact was the southern region which held a t-ratio of 2.63 and provided a 37% increase to wages compared with those in the west. The other regions showed similar effects but both t-ratios showed the results were not statistically different from 0. Race was shown to only be a significant factor for black males as the result for hispanics was not statistically different from 0. Being black led to an estimated .63% decline in income compared to non-black individuals and had one of the largest t-ratios in the data set at -4.5. IQ was a strange result showing a minimal impact of 8.69506e-06 but had a t-ratio of 4 which suggests that its impact is higher than 0. Part of the reason for this could possibly be because those with high I.Q attended university and the benefits of their I.Q are captured in the measure for college returns. Education seemed to have the largest impact on wage differentials amongst men with returns to a bachelor’s degree seeing an estimated .615% greater return to wages than an associate or some college has and this is supported by a 4.03 t-ratio. Work experience seemed the most off result in the study as most would believe that wage would increase as you accrue more workplace knowledge which would lead to increases in productivity and wages. This doesn’t occur in our study which estimates a negative return to work experience and shows statistically insignificant results for work experience^2. Rural versus urban environments also showed to have no impact to male earning differentials.
The Female model differs in many ways from the male but the first difference of note is the lower constant to female earning which shows an earning disparity between the genders. Many of the variables changed most notable black for females showed to have almost no impact but along with the low estimation the OLS prediction showed that it was statistically insignificant from 0. Even stranger, the model estimates hispanic women to experience wages roughly .2% greater than non-hispanics with a t-ratio of 3.33. The effect from the south was also erased and all regions now show no impact on the female wage differential and the effect from rural vs urban areas remained statistically insignificant.The effects from schooling also seem to be more unfair to women as they experience a harsher decrease to wages than male for a much lower benefit for a bachelors. A bachelors for a female versus an associates is a .26% increase to wages versus the male .615% increase. The effects from IQ and work experience seem to be the same as the males showing unexpectedly low values but females’ work experience was statistically different from 0.
Interpreting Results
Before conducting this study we had a hypothesis that the impact would be low or statistically indifferent from 0. Our initial reasoning was because of the lack of restriction to movement in the U.S. This trait would make it difficult for regional differences to exist as if there were wage differences attributable to just location then people would move to the high wage location.This movement would be a shock to the supply side on labor shifting the supply curve up which decrease price of labor in the region. This hypothesis seems to hold true from our data as all impacts regarding regional differences are indistinguishable from 0 which indicates our prediction could be correct. We see that the majority of the impact for differences in wage differentials is attributable to race, education, and gender.
Summary/Conclusion
This paper focused on wage differentials in relation to geographic location. Wage differentials are the differences in wages between people in the same industry with different skills or people with similar skills in different industries. This paper took a closer look into how geographic location correlated with wage differentials by looking into different factors like urban v. rural, health impacts on productivity due to pollution, and empirical data from two different models.
The findings of this paper related to urban v. rural were that, overall, it seemed over time it had more of an impact on wage differentials. As the United States entered the 2000’s and became more industrialized, the larger the wage differential was seen between areas that are urban versus areas that are rural. However, after looking into the potential of impact on income after moving from rural to urban or poorer areas to high-income areas, there wasn’t much difference found in income. This is likely because those who start out living in rural areas, are affected in the long-run by the disadvantages they experienced living in poorer areas. However, one potential benefit found from moving from rural to urban is that the change in technology and industrialization in urban areas leads to higher earning potential. Another way to analyze the difference between urban and rural is looking into regional price parity. This helps look into the average cost of goods and evaluate income distribution. Also, looking into density within an area to evaluate how exactly it affects the economy’s development. Despite one moving from a rural area to an urban area, there seemed to be a positive impact on earning potential when living in an urban area. This is due to the larger presence of industry and technology that helps increase the earning potential. With this being said, wage differentials across the U.S. become more present as the economy develops more in urban areas than rural areas.
There were interesting findings for health impacts on productivity due to pollution. There were definite connections, both positive and negative relationships, between income inequality, carbon emissions, and economic growth. What was found is that the relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions is positive. This means that as carbon emissions increase, income inequality also increases. The relationship was found to be positive in both the short and long run. However, there is a negative relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. As carbon emissions decrease, economic growth rises. This is likely linked to behavioral economics and that people who strive for a better environment are more active and productive within their community, contributing to greater economic growth. This then links to geographic location in areas that are more industrialized and technology heavy, like urban areas, have higher levels of pollution. In the long-term this could impact production whether companies need to reduce working hours to reduce the level of pollution emitted. However, there is the potential if the economy develops enough from the current high level of production, that people would be able to work less, leading to lower levels of pollution emitted. In a way, it could be seen as pay off from the current level of production in an area, that only temporarily affects the amount of pollution in an area.
The O-Ring Model helped analyze the varying wage differentials that were seen between high-skilled workers and low skilled workers within different geographic locations. This ultimately caused a multiplier effect. In other words, high-skilled workers were likely to be grouped with similarly high-skilled workers and low-skilled workers were paired with low-skilled workers. This particular grouping led to income inequality and ultimately hinder growth of the workers and economy.
Another factor that impacted wage differentials across the U.S. was the difference between right to work states and non right to work states. Right to work states allow workers more bargaining power and union benefits in comparison to non-right to work states. However, when the two are compared, it seems that overall workers in non-right to work states benefit more with higher wages and benefits versus workers in right to work states. Across the U.S, this would cause greater income inequality due to different states that adopt the right to work or don’t.
Lastly, there were several discoveries from the empirical data. The data chosen was from NLS79. This was chosen over 97 because those who were at the end of their income earning potential would be analyzed. The empirical data evaluated different geographic location, race, ethnicity, AFQT score, work experience, and gender. Previous to conducting the study, the hypothesis was that the impact of geographic location would be low or statistically indifferent from zero. This was due to the lack of restriction of movement within the U.S. that could greatly change and impact one’s earning potential. If one didn’t earn much in one area, they could easily move to a high-income area to increase their level of earning. After conducting the study, the hypothesis held true. The variables that had greater impact were race, education, and gender.
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34 Thermal Radiation
An object’s temperature is the measure of the speed at which the object’s particles move. To measure temperature, astronomers prefer the Kelvin temperature scale . This scale is much like Celsius, but 0 o is Absolute Zero – scale starts at zero, 0K.Wien’s Law relates the color of an incandescent object to its temperature. The law states that wavelength of the brightest color is inversely proportional to the object’s temperature.
Where:
λmax is the wavelength of the brightest color
T is the temperature
Stefan-Boltzmann Law states that the power, P , emitted per unit of area of an object is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature, T . Mathematically, this is: