APPENDIX A CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND EPISODE SELECTION FOR THE SAN ANTONIO EAC REGION SAN ANTONIO EAC REGION ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION MARCH 2004 A 2 Conceptual Model and Episode Selection for the San Antonio EAC Region Prepared by: The Alamo Area Council of Governments Natural Resources / Transportation Department San Antonio, Texas September 2000 A 3 Table of Contents Introduction                              A 4 Preliminary Concepts                        .. A 5 CAMS in the San Antonio Region                . A 5 Design Value                         . A 6 Elements of the Conceptual Model                  . A 7 Local Monitored Data                     .. A 7 Seasonal Patterns of High Ozone Occurrences        A 7 Local Wind Patterns: Monitoring Station Data         A 9 Regional Modeling Data                    . A 10 The HYSPLIT Model                  . A 10 Regional Wind Patterns: Back Trajectories          A 10 Episode Selection                          . A 14 Episode Candidates: Exceedance Days             .. A 14 Requirements Limiting Episode Selection              A 15 Comparison of Back Trajectories             . A 21 Regional Considerations                .. A 31 Conclusion                             . A 32 INTRODUCTION The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA) is charged with the maintenance of regional air quality across the United States through a series of standards, the National Ambient Air Quality Standards ( NAAQS). When regions fail to comply with these standards, the region joins together with the state and several federal entities to create and agree upon a State Implementation Plan ( SIP). The SIP is a blueprint for the methodology that the region and state will follow to allow the region to regain the federal air quality standards.

Air quality analysis and the modeling of control strategies are elements of a SIP. Since control strategy modeling requires extensive technical analyses of control strategy impacts under all meteorological conditions that give rise to high levels of ozone formation, it is important that each photochemical modeling episode be built upon a time period characterized by such meteorological conditions. Hence, careful selection of the proper episode is important for use in photochemical modeling.

The EPA suggests that a conceptual description1, or model, be developed to aid in the selection of modeling episodes. The following paper represents a Preliminary Conceptual Model ( PCM), developed and used for episode selection for initial eight hour modeling. A conceptual model profiles or typifies the meteorological conditions during which high levels of ozone are created for a region through the study of the meteorology accompanying high levels of ozone. The days which will comprise the modeling episode are specifically chosen because they reflect the area's meteorology during the formation of high ozone levels. Thus, a successful PCM will supply an identification of the best time periods for the modeler to incorporate into a photochemical model in order to evaluate control strategies. An interim conceptual model includes modifications made to the PCM during the development of the modeling protocol and base case modeling. The refined conceptual model will be developed after initial modeling has been completed and control strategies have been implemented 2.

The San Antonio area episode( s) will include days during which measured ozone levels exceed the 8 hour average ozone NAAQS concentration standard of 85 parts per billion ( ppb). If during a single day it is found that the 8 hour average ozone level is 85 ppb or above, while meteorological conditions are unexceptional, special notice of that day is taken. When several such days occur in a series, that set of days is a photochemical model episode candidate. The process undertaken for identification of such episodes in the San Antonio region, the analysis of the candidate episodes, and the rationale for their final ranking and selection are the subject of this report.

1 Pg 18 of 168, " DRAFT GUIDANCE ON THE USE OF MODELS AND OTHER ANALYSES IN ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATIONS FOR THE 8 HOUR OZONE NAAQS," EPA 454/ R 99 004, May 1999. Online: http:// www. epa. gov/ ttn/ scram/ draft8hr. zip 2 Page 2, " Development of a Conceptual Model for Episode Selection of High Eight Hour Ozone Events in the Dallas / Fort Worth area," C. Durrenberger, P. Breitenbach, J. Red, D. Sullivan, S. Minto, TNRCC A 5 PRELIMINARY CONCEPTS CAMS in the San Antonio Region There are currently four air quality monitors in the San Antonio region that record ozone levels reported to the public. The data from these sites are archived and displayed on the Internet3 by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission ( now known as the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality), and is quality assured to EPA standards. The monitoring equipment sets within this network are called CAMS, which is an acronym for Continuous Air Monitoring Station4. Information about San Antonio CAMS sites is contained in the table below, Table A 1. Figure A 1, on the following page, shows the locations of the local monitoring sites.

Notice that CAMS07 was deactivated on August 11, 1998 and CAMS58 was activated on August 12, 1998; the monitoring equipment located at CAMS07 was moved to its present location at CAMS58. Notice also that only CAMS23 has been active during the entire 1997, 1998 and 1999 ozone seasons; data from this monitor will be critical to any change in designation under the 8 hour ozone NAAQS.

Table A 1. Ozone Recording CAMS sites in the San Antonio ( SA) Airshed CAMS Designation / Site Name Address; Location Description Data Measured First date of data reporting ( online); maintained by CAMS23 / Marshall High School 6655 Bluebird Lane; northwestern SA Ozone, Weather Since September 17, 1996; TNRCC CAMS58 / Camp Bullis Near Wilderness road; far northern SA Ozone, Weather and NOx Since August 12, 1998; TNRCC CAMS59 / Calaveras Lake 14620 Laguna Road; southeastern San Antonio PM 2.5, NOx, Ozone, and Weather Since May 13, 1998; University of Texas at Austin CAMS678 / CPS/ Trinity 802 Pecan Valley Dr.; near eastern San Antonio CO, SO2, NOx, Ozone, and Weather Since March 4, 1999; by Trinity Consultants for CPS CAMS07 / San Antonio North C07 522 Pilgrim Dr.; near northern San Antonio CO, NOx, Ozone, and Weather Deactivated on August 11, 1998 In addition to various pollutant readings, the weather data reported from each of these sites include location specific temperature, wind direction and wind speed. This data is reported online as hourly averaged values. Since promulgation of the 8 hour ozone NAAQS in 1997, eight hour ozone reading averages are available online as well.

As mentioned in the Introduction, the 8 hour average concentration of 85 ppb for ozone is the single most important air quality measurement for San Antonio. According to the NAAQS, this critical threshold value determines whether an area is or is not in attainment of the 8 hour standard. If the average of the annual fourth highest eight hour average for three consecutive years is at or above 85 ppb at any one monitor, that region is not in attainment of the NAAQS.

3 " Air and Water Monitoring," on line August 3, 2000: http:// www. tnrcc. state. tx. us/ air/ monops/ 4 " What is a CAMS?", http:// www. tnrcc. state. tx. us/ cgi bin/ monops/ daily_ info? cams A 6 Figure A 1. Monitoring locations in the San Antonio airshed.

Image courtesy of TNRCC5. In addition to the ozone monitors discussed, this image shows C140 ( weather only), C301 ( PM 2.5 only) and C27 ( CO and NOx only) CAMS sites.

Design Value Another useful statistic is the design value. In the San Antonio area, the current design value is 88 ppb, the average of the annual fourth highest ozone readings recorded at CAMS 23 ( Marshall High School) during the 1997, 1998, and 1999 ozone seasons. The effectiveness of control strategies in helping a region to regain attainment is measured against this value. Also, when selecting episode days, the EPA recommends that daily peak ozone 8 hour averages be generally within 10 ppb above the 8 hour design value6. The design value will be discussed further in the section treating Episode Selection.

5 http:// www. tnrcc. state. tx. us/ cgi bin/ monops/ select_ month? region13. gif 6 Conversation with Pete Breitenbach, TNRCC, August 18, 2000 A 7 ELEMENTS OF THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL A conceptual model identifies meteorological conditions that occur during days of excessive ozone formation. A high ozone day is classified as a day during which an ozone level of 85 ppb or above, when averaged for an eight hour period, or 125 ppb or above for a one hour averaging period, is recorded. Such levels exceed NAAQS air quality standards. Days during which such levels are achieved are also called exceedance days, and are candidate days for inclusion in a modeling episode. ( While the one hour average ozone NAAQS carries the 125 ppb one hour average standard, San Antonio is currently at risk to lose only the attainment status for the 8 hour standard.)

Local Monitored Data Seasonal Patterns of High Ozone Occurences After compiling a list of these ozone exceedance days  using both the one hour and eight hour definitions for exceedance  from TNRCC's archives, the task of identifying patterns in the data begins. The meteorology determined for all exceedance days will, by definition, reflect all of the meteorological patterns that correspond to high ozone.

The ozone season for the region is seven months long, lasting from April to October. If, on a given day from 1990 to 1999, any monitor in the San Antonio region showed an exceedance for either the one hour or the eight hour ozone standard ( 125 ppb and 85 ppb, respectively), that day was counted. Such counts were totaled by two week ( halfmonth periods and plotted in Figure 2. No day was counted more than once.

Within the ozone season, as shown in Figure A 2, there are two prominent periods during which the greatest number of exceedances occurred. Of the 57 exceedance days counted for San Antonio, 16 ( 28.1%) occurred between early May and late July. Also, 29 ( 50.9%) occurred between early August and late September.

This guides us in the first consideration. That is, we should further study episode candidates associated with each of these two periods within the ozone season7. It will likely be advisable that one modeling episode be drawn from each period.

7 In the more advanced conceptual model, the seasonal periods identified should be scrutinized for underlying patterns unique to each season; perhaps wind patterns are unique to that season in the target airshed. Wind patterns may indict transport sources. Or perhaps there are sources identifiable within the emissions inventory which follow seasonal activity patterns. In both cases, such identification may lead to season specific control strategies. In brief, ozone day occurence patterns identified according to season hint at further underlying factors affecting ozone formation. Marking the patterns by the calendar is not important; identifying the causes underlying the temporal distribution of occurences is important. A 8 Figure A 2. High Ozone Readings by Two Week Period by Region.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Early Jan. Late Jan. Early Feb. Late Feb. Early Ma r. Late Mar. Early Apr. Late Apr. Early May Late May Early Jun. Late Jun. Early Jul . Late Jul. Early Aug.

L ate Aug. Early Se p. Late Sep. Early Oct. Late Oct. Early Nov . Late Nov.

E arly Dec.

L ate Dec.

Years 1990 1997* ( unless stipulated)

Total #

of Days Over 0.12 ppm/

1

hr or 0 .08 ppm/

8

hrs Houston Area Dallas Ft. Worth Central Texas Northeast Texas Beaumont P. A.

Corpus Christi ( 90 98) *

Clute ( 90 98) *

San Antonio Area ( 90 99) * A 9 Local Wind Patterns: Monitoring Station Data As prepared by TNRCC data analysis staff, the following figure, Figure A 3, shows the wind patterns associated with days of both low and high levels of ozone formation. This is a compilation of days within the ozone seasons ( April 1 through October 31) from 1988 to 1997. The CAMS morning wind velocities ( direction and speed) are averaged between 7: 00 hours through 10: 59 hours Central Standard Time ( CST), inclusive. The afternoon wind velocities are averaged between 13: 00 and 16: 59 CST, inclusive. The averages shown are from 5 minute averages taken at all CAMS stations, averaged together.

Figure A 3. San Antonio Wind Roses San Antonio Wind Roses Low Ozone Days, Morning Winds High Ozone Days, Morning Winds Low Ozone Days, Afternoon Winds High Ozone Days, Afternoon Winds Slight shift to the east on high days.

This graph shows that, during low ozone days, 16.1% of the velocity readings in the morning are light and variable ( wind speed < 0.5 meters per second), while the direction for the morning winds are from the south, southeast or southeasterly. In contrast, during high ozone days, 26% of the velocity readings in the morning are light and variable, while the morning winds shift to the east.

In the same manner, during low ozone days, the image shows that 11.9% of the velocity readings in the afternoon are light and variable, while the direction for the afternoon winds are from the southeast. During high ozone days, 12.8% of the velocity readings in the afternoon are light and variable, while the afternoon winds shift to the east again. A 10 This provides evidence of the wind directions one should anticipate seeing at the monitors when scrutinizing meteorological data for candidate episode days. However, just as the ozone season could be narrowed to the two periods within which one may select representative episodes, the Hysplit model will allow a refinement to the description of wind directions and speeds beyond the monitored, station specific weather data.

Regional Modeling Data The HYSPLIT Model The Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission ( TNRCC) recommends back trajectory analysis as the preferred method in obtaining data necessary to track air parcels. Given a final geographic destination for an air parcel, back trajectories show the path followed by the parcel before reaching the destination. Theoretically, back trajectories effectively track air displacement over time, distance, and, consequently, over emission source areas.

The TNRCC recommends use of the HYSPLIT model to develop back trajectories. The Air Resources Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) maintains the HYSPLIT model. It is available for public use on the Internet at their Realtime Environmental Applications and Display sYstem ( READY) webpage8. This versatile model can be run either as a trajectory ( parcel displacement) or air dispersion model, using either forecast or archived meteorological data. The necessary data for creating the back trajectories used in this conceptual model development is linked to the online model. Point and click operation of the online model requires minimal data input by the user. While the meteorological database is not inexhaustible, the model and database is applicable across the United States, which provides a national reference for air trajectory and dispersion modeling needs.

Regional Wind Patterns: Back Trajectories Earlier, the list of exceedance days was used to identify the annual periods during which ozone exceedance days frequently occurred, on a seasonal basis. That is, temporal patterns were identified for exceedance days. The HYSPLIT model is first used to estimate air parcel paths typical to ozone exceedance days. By running back trajectories for thirty two of forty exceedance days in the San Antonio area from 1993 to 1996, TNRCC staff identified spatial patterns for exceedance days, shown in Figure A 4.

8 READY Homepage: http:// www. arl. noaa. gov/ ready. html . Online August 3, 2000. A 11 Figure A 4. Typification of Air Parcel Paths Arriving in San Antonio, Ozone Exceedance Days 1993  1998 Figure A 4 shows the pattern of air parcel positions on their path to the San Antonio International Airport. The HYSPLIT model produces air parcel positions for every hour in the model run by latitude and longitude. Figure 4 shows that, on high ozone days, it is rare that air arriving in San Antonio will have come from the northwest or the southwest.

A quantitative refinement of the above data is presented next. In Figure A 5, the air parcel back trajectory locations have been sorted into bins and counted. More specifically, the region of central Texas within a 250 mile radius of the San Antonio International Airport ( SAIA) has been partitioned into octants; northern, northeastern, eastern, southeastern, etc. Then, the region has been further subdivided by distance boundaries; area within 50 miles of SAIA, 50 to 100 miles of SAIA, etc., out to 250 miles from SAIA. Next, a count of the air parcel locations that fall in each bin were made, as they are given in the HYSPLIT model output files. Finally, these raw counts were converted into percentages and written into the representative bins. Note that the percentages in bold font outside of the 250 mile boundary are sums of the percentages within the octant. That is, for example, the image shows that 3.5% of the air parcel passed to the west and within 50 miles of SAIA; 0.6% passed to the west and between A 12 50 and 100 miles of SAIA. Due west of SAIA, outside the 250 mile boundary, the figure in bold, 4.1%, indicates the sum of all air parcels that passed to the west of SAIA within the western octant.

Figure A 5. Back Trajectories Percentages by Direction for High Ozone Days, 1993 1998 This is extremely valuable information. Just as the exceedance day list was used to identify the temporal occurrence of exceedance days, this calculation shows clearly how frequently air parcels passed through a given region, by distance and direction ( octant), before coming to San Antonio on a high ozone day. Industrial ( point) sources can be identified within the zones delineated in the image. Figure A 6 presents NOx Point Sources in the Eastern Half of Texas by their distance, magnitude and direction from San Antonio. N A 13 Figure A 6. NOx Point Sources in the Eastern Half of Texas by their distance, magnitude and direction from San Antonio.

Now that the seasonal time periods and typical air movements prior to ozone exceedances in the San Antonio region have been identified, the exceedance day information must be reviewed. The preceding statistical work has allowed identification of particular meteorological parameters which candidate episodes must fulfill. Episodes must have winds from the south, southeast, east and northeast. Episodes should be chosen from the two annual periods for exceedances: May to early July, and late August to late September. Depending on episode selection availability, air parcels traveling through the eastern octant, where some of the larger point sources are found, may A 14 weigh favorably on episode selection. Next, the exceedance day data will be reviewed for formation of candidate episodes.

EPISODE SELECTION Episode Candidates: Exceedance Days San Antonio does not have many episode candidates, simply because San Antonio ozone levels are not typically excessive. The following table ( A 2) lists all eight hour ozone exceedance days recorded in San Antonio for ozone seasons 1995 through 1999. While the one hour high values for the same days are listed, not every eight hour exceedance day is a one hour exceedance day. In fact, only three one hour exceedances ( one of which was excused by EPA) exist on these records. Every onehour exceedance is listed.

The years 1995 1999 alone are listed, since earlier years are not considered feasible for emission inventory and photochemical modeling development. A preference is placed on modeling 1997 and more recent years, since these are the years during which the 8 hour ozone NAAQS has been in effect. Note also that the column heading " Episode Dates" refers either to existing modeling episode dates  in which case ramp up days are included in the episode dates listed  or refers to the episode candidate period marked exclusively by exceedance days. In the latter case, ramp up days, which are negotiable but are not part of the analysis considered here, are not included in the episode date period listed.

Table A 2. 1995 1999 Ozone Exceedances and Possible Modeling Episodes for the AACOG Region: Ozone Readings from San Antonio Region Monitors 1995 Ozone Exceedance Days 1 Hour 8 Hour Episode Dates Notes 6/ 13/ 95 105 96 6/ 21/ 95 100 93 6/ 22/ 95 97 85 June 18 22 Existing UT Episode 6/ 23/ 95 111 89 6/ 27/ 95 105 86 7/ 8/ 95 109 87 7/ 9/ 95 99 87 7/ 11/ 95 109 86 July 7 12 Existing AACOG Episode 9/ 3/ 95 120 104 August 31 September 3 Existing TNRCC Episode 9/ 9/ 95 105 94 9/ 10/ 95 108 91 9/ 25/ 95 119 108 9/ 26/ 95 122 101 10/ 10/ 95 108 90 1996 Ozone Exceedance Days 1 Hour 8 Hour Episode Dates Notes 6/ 3/ 96 130 97 7/ 3/ 96 106 89 No Modeling Episode Not sufficient ozone exceedances for a 1996 modeling episode A 15 1997 Ozone Exceedance Days 1 Hour 8 Hour Episode Dates Notes 7/ 16/ 97 123 95 8/ 26/ 97 103 95 9/ 6/ 97 100 88 No Modeling Episode Not sufficient ozone exceedances for a 1997 modeling episode 1998 Ozone Exceedance Days 1 Hour 8 Hour Episode Dates Notes 5/ 7/ 98 140 101 5/ 10/ 98 107 89 No Modeling Episode Mexican Forest Fires; excused by EPA 8/ 28/ 98 99 89 8/ 30/ 98 99 92 9/ 3/ 98 105 87 August 28  September 3 9/ 4/ 98 141 110 9/ 16/ 98 107 91 10/ 9/ 98 121 95 No Modeling Episode 1999 Ozone Exceedance Days 1 Hour 8 Hour Episode Dates Notes 8/ 5/ 99 120 100 8/ 16/ 99 109 87 8/ 21/ 99 109 87 August 16 21 8/ 30/ 99 101 85 8/ 31/ 99 108 95 9/ 1/ 99 109 91 August 30 September 1 9/ 16/ 99 93 85 9/ 18/ 99 108 96 9/ 19/ 99 96 91 9/ 20/ 99 107 86 September 16   20 10/ 1/ 99 99 88 Requirements Limiting Episode Selection One criterion for episode selection is that there be more than two exceedance days in the episode. In all, the episode should be between three to ten days9 or so. Due to the expense and time required to model episodes, it is not practical to model all episode days. With these introductory guidelines in mind, reinforced by the desirability of developing 1997 1999 episodes, there are no episode candidates in 1995, 1996 or 1997, although June 21 23, 1995 are three exceedance days for San Antonio. This is not a strong candidate since the period is in 1995. This consideration tends to exclude August 16 21, 1999 in which only two exceedance days appear.

Note also that on September 4, 1998, a one hour ozone high of 141 ppb and an eighthour ozone high of 110 were recorded ( both at CAMS 58). This day comes at the end of an episode candidate, the August 28  September 3, 1998 period. Exceedance days within 10 ppb above the design value of 88 ppb are preferred. The September 4th 8 hour 9 Page 2, " Development of a Conceptual Model for Episode Selection of High Eight Hour Ozone Events in the Dallas / Fort Worth area," C. Durrenberger, P. Breitenbach, J. Red, D. Sullivan, S. Minto, TNRCC A 16 average value of 110 ppb is 22 ppb above the design value. This high value tends to exclude September 4th from consideration as part of the August 28  September 3 episode. The high values for both the one and eight hour averages recorded on September 4th represent an anomaly and are the highest in this record set. On the other hand, if the August 28  September 3, 1998 period is valuable as a modeling episode, it is within the modeler's discretion to note the anomaly and choose to include September 4 in the episode. It may be of interest to note the response of the model on this day to the control strategies considered. Also, since this exceedance comes as the very last day in an episode, there is no following exceedance day. There might be conceivably be debate about the value of an episode with such an anomaly surrounded by other exceedance days.

A restriction on episode selection has arisen since some meteorological data is missing. At this time, Eta Data Assimilation System ( EDAS) data is unavailable to create the meteorological modeling required for the August 30  September 1, 1999 candidate episode10. There are no current plans to replace this data. Coarse grid data exists which may be used to interpolate the missing data, but this is not a preferred methodology and would require additional expense. The August 30  September 1, 1999 candidate episode is effectively removed from consideration for this time.

Other data is missing from the same data set. Due to a fire at the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction ( NCEP) computer facility at the end of September 1999, EDAS data was not produced between October 1 and November 4, 1999. There currently are no plans to reproduce the missing EDAS data11. EDAS data is used both by the HYSPLIT model and to create the meteorological input files to the photochemical model.

With the above considerations in mind, August 16 21, 1999 and August 30 September 1, 1999 are excluded. A list of two candidate episodes can be defined. They are presented in Table A 3 below.

None of the one hour daily highs are within 15 ppb of the one hour threshold of 125 ppb. The highest of the eight hour averaged daily high values, 96 ppb for September 18, 1999, is eight ppb above the design value of 88 ppb. That is, none of the values in the remaining candidate episodes are excessively elevated, but rather are near the design value. This is fortunate, since very elevated daily high values are anomalies to be avoided, as are the rare events previously discussed. These eight hour values are within 10 ppb above the design value, as discussed in Section 2.0.

10 EDAS data is missing for August 29 at 15Z  21Z and August 30 at 00Z. Conversation with Pete Brietenbach and Shannon Minto, TNRCC, August 15, 2000. 11 According to " HYSPLIT4 ARCHIVE TRAJECTORIES," http:// www. arl. noaa. gov/ ready bin/ traj1file. pl A 17 Table A 3. Candidate Ozone Episodes 1998 Ozone Exceedances 1 Hour Daily High 8 Hour Daily High Modeling Episode Dates w/ o Ramp Up # Days Required to model, including Startto End Dates Modeling Episode Dates with 3 Ramp Up Days # Days Required to model 8/ 28/ 98 99 89 8/ 30/ 98 99 92 9/ 3/ 98 105 87 August 28  September 3 7 August 25  September 3 10 1999 Ozone Exceedances 9/ 16/ 99 93 85 9/ 18/ 99 108 96 9/ 19/ 99 96 91 9/ 20/ 99 107 86 September 16  20 5 September 13  20 8 A closely related consideration is the relationship between high one hour averages and high eight hour averages. The following figure, Figure A 7, shows the close correlation between high one and eight hour values for 1990 through 1999. This graph was prepared by TNRCC staff meteorologists.

Figure A 7. San Antonio Area Maximum Ozone 1990 1999 Best Fit Line: y = 0.8318x + 0.667; R2 = 0.9353 0 25 50 75 100 125 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Area 1 Hour Maximum ( ppb) Area 8 hour Maximum ( ppb)

Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy Very Unhealthy Projected Unhealthy Projected Unhealthy Sensitive Projected Very Unhealthy The best fit line for the data has an R2 value of 0.9353, an indication that the correlation between one and eight hour data is generally high. The table below, Table A 4, gives A 18 the comparison between the best fit line equation and the observed values recorded in Table A 3.

Table A 4. Observed and Predicted values correlated with Best Fit line, 1990 1999 Observed 1 Hour Daily High Observed 8 Hour Daily High Predicted 8 hour high, based on y= 0.8318* x + 0.667 Observed  Predicted 1995 July 8, 9, 11, 1995  Existing AACOG Photochem. Model Episode Exceedance Days 7/ 8/ 95 109 87 91.3332  4.332 7/ 9/ 95 99 87 83.0152 3.9848 7/ 11/ 95 109 86 91.3332  5.3332 1998 August 28  September 3, 1998 8/ 28/ 98 99 89 83.0152 5.9848 8/ 30/ 98 99 92 83.0152 8.9848 9/ 03/ 98 105 87 88.006  1.006 9/ 04/ 98 141 110 117.9508  7.9508 1999 September 16  20, 1999 9/ 16/ 99 93 85 78.0244 6.9756 9/ 18/ 99 108 96 90.5014 5.4986 9/ 19/ 99 96 91 80.5198 10.4802 9/ 20/ 99 107 86 89.6696  3.6696 The correlation between the best fit line itself and the one and eight hour observed values is poorest for September 19, 1999 and August 30, 1998. Underlying these differences is an unusually long sustained ozone level, near in value to the day's highest one hour value, during the eight hours used in the eight hour averaging period for that day. This lifts the day's corresponding eight hour averages above the best fit line, that is, nearer the numerically higher one hour value itself, on those two days.

In contrast, the difference ( negative) between observed and predicted values on September 20, 1999, show that the one hour value " spiked;" the low eight hour average of 86 ppb required much lower values in the set to bring the one hour high of 107 ppb down in the average. Yet, as can be seen from the data within the existing AACOG photochemical model episode, July 11, 1995 shows an even more pronounced " spike." ( The September 4, 1998 values, included here in italics, for the sake of comparison, show this relationship.)

Judging from the acceptability of the existing 1995 modeling episode, the September 20, 1999 value is acceptable as well. In all, the differences reported above are not seen as valid reasons for disqualifying the 1998 and 1999 episode days from further consideration.

Staff produced one hour versus eight hour plots, like Figure 5, for 1995, 1996, 1998, and 1999. The results are provided in Figures A 8 through A 11, respectively. A 19 Figure A 8. 1995 San Antonio 1hr  8hr Ozone Regression R 2 = 0.9464 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 150 1 Hour Max Ozone ( ppb) 8 H o u r O z o n e ( p p b )

June 18 22 ( UT Episode) July 7 12 ( AACOG Episode) August 31 September 3 ( TNRCC Episode) 8 hr Ozone Level ( 85 ppb)

1 hr Ozone Level ( 125 ppb)

Figure A 9. 1996 San Antonio 1hr  8hr Ozone Regression R 2 = 0.9298 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 150 1 Hour Max Ozone ( ppb) 8 H o u r O z o n e ( p p b )

June 30 July 5 ( TNRCC Episode) 8 hr Ozone Level ( 85 ppb)

1 hr Ozone Level ( 125 ppb) A 20 Figure A 10. 1998 San Antonio 1hr  8hr Ozone Regression R2 = 0.9435 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 150 1 Hour Max Ozone ( ppb) 8 H o u r O z o n e ( p p b )

August 25 September 3 1 hr Ozone Level ( 125 ppb) 8 hr Ozone Level ( 85 ppb)

Figure A 11. 1999 San Antonio 1hr  8hr Ozone Regression R2 = 0.9344 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 150 1 Hour Max Ozone ( ppb) 8 H o u r O z o n e ( p p b )

August 13 21 August 27 September 1 September 13 19 8 hr Ozone Level ( 85 ppb)

1 hr Ozone Level ( 125 ppb) A 21 Comparison of Back Trajectories The following comparison between the Back Trajectories for the 1993 1998 High Ozone Days, the existing 1995 Photochemical Model Episode, and the 1998 & 1999 Episode Candidates begins the final analysis of the wind trajectories. Figure 5 shows the direction ( by octant) and distance of the air parcel trajectories from 1993 through 1998 for all high ozone days. The distribution of air parcel locations in the northeast, east, southeast and southern octants represents 83.6% of the total high ozone day air parcel locations for the entire six year period. In a sense, the goal for this section of the conceptual model development is to incorporate back trajectories for the exceedance days found in the existing 1995 photochemical model together with one or more of the candidate episodes such that the resulting combination generally matches the distribution of the 1993 1998 back trajectory set.

Each exceedance day of the two candidate episodes ( not including ramp up days), August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998, and September 16, 18  20, 1999, was run through the Hysplit model to determine a back trajectory. In all cases, the back trajectory ended at the San Antonio International Airport at 21 UTC ( 4 p. m., Central Standard, Daylight Savings time), with the exception of one day: August 31, 1998. The back trajectory ended at 12 UTC ( 7 a. m.) instead. This was necessary due to missing EDAS data required in the Hysplit model. For the same reasons, all back trajectories were 33 hours except for August 28, 1998 ( 19 hours), and September 3, 1998 ( 19 hours).

By entering the data from the Hysplit model as input to GIS software ( ARC INFO), the following graphs were developed. They indicate air parcel positions for each of the episodes. Graphs showing both raw position counts given by the Hysplit model and percentages of the total are given. A 22 Back Trajectories for August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 A 23 Back Trajectories for September 16, 18, 19 and 20, 1999 A 24 In addition, the back trajectories were calculated for the AACOG Photochemical model days currently used for analysis, July 10  12, 1995. The resulting analysis is contained in the graphs below.

Back Trajectories for July 10  12, 1995 Note that the air parcel trajectories associated with the 1995 AACOG Photochemical Modeling episode are essentially ( 75%) all within the southern or southwestern octant. As shown in Figure A 5, very few trajectory positions in the 1993 1998 trajectory sum A 25 were in the southwestern octant; the southwestern octant need not be well represented by the modeling episodes. Ideally, a second modeling episode candidate would provide the missing back trajectories required in Figure A 5 for the southeastern, eastern and northeastern octants. Back trajectories filling the northeast, east, and southeast octants are required in a 16.7/ 28.4/ 19.4 ratio, or, roughly, an equivalent ratio of 26/ 44/ 30. The following table, A 5, presents a comparison of the counts and percentages in these three quadrants, by episode.

Table A 5. Comparison of Back Trajectories without 1995 AACOG episode #, % of all Trajectory Points in NE, E, SE % Trajectory Points in Northeast % Trajectory Points in East % Trajectory Points in Southeast Ratio NE/ E/ SE 1993 1998 Back Trajectories 565, 64.5% 16.7% 28.4% 19.4% 26 / 44 / 30 Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 146, 70.1% 56.5% 13% 1% 80 / 19 / 1 Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 280, 78.9% 8.5% 26.5% 43.9% 11 / 36 / 56 The 1998 scenario contains many trajectory points in the northeast octant. The September 16  20, 1999 scenario ratio seems better balanced.

The next table, A 6, presents a similar comparison of the four major octants which must be accounted for. Here, the candidate episode trajectories are combined with the Base Case 1995 AACOG Photochemical Model ( BC) to compare with the 1993  1998 trajectory data. Because the attainment modeling will use both episodes, the 1995 Base Case plus at least one additional episode, for demonstration purposes, this shows the combined effectiveness of multiple episode considerations.

Table A 6. Comparison of Back Trajectories with 1995 AACOG episode #, % of all Trajectory Points in NE, E, SE, S % Trajectory Points in Northeast % Trajectory Points in East % Trajectory Points in Southeast % Trajectory Points in South Ratio NE/ E/ SE/ S 1993 1998 Back Trajectories 732, 83.6% 16.7% 28.4% 19.4% 19.1% 20 / 34 / 23 / 23 Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 + BC 337, 70.5% 25.3% 9.2% 5.3% 30.8% 36 / 13 / 8 / 44 Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 + BC 524, 83.7% 5.4% 17.7% 28.6% 32% 7 / 21 / 34 / 38 Table A 6 shows that both combined episodes cover the four essential octants. This same data is presented in more detail in tables A 7 through A 9 below. A 26 Table A 7. 1993  1998 Ozone Exceedance Days for San Antonio 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 13 0 1 2 2 18 2.05% Northeast 36 32 30 38 10 146 16.67% East 104 37 75 32 1 249 28.42% Southeast 60 35 36 26 13 170 19.41% South 41 39 52 32 3 167 19.06% Southwest 12 21 3 1 0 37 4.22% West 31 5 0 0 0 36 4.11% Northwest 44 3 2 2 2 53 6.05%

341 172 199 133 31 <= Counts 38.93% 19.63% 22.72% 15.18% 3.54% <= Percent Table A 8. Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995) plus Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 18 0 0 0 0 18 3.77% Northeast 25 25 31 23 17 121 25.31% East 35 8 1 0 0 44 9.21% Southeast 14 10 1 0 0 25 5.23% South 32 8 89 17 1 147 30.75% Southwest 37 27 10 0 0 74 15.48% West 27 15 0 0 0 42 8.79% Northwest 7 0 0 0 0 7 1.46%

195 93 132 40 18 <= Counts 40.79% 19.46% 27.62% 8.37% 3.77% <= Percent Table A 9. Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995) plus Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 8 0 0 0 0 8 1.28% Northeast 4 8 4 5 13 34 5.43% East 41 28 19 12 11 111 17.73% Southeast 71 64 39 5 0 179 28.59% South 64 23 95 17 1 200 31.95% Southwest 38 27 10 0 0 75 11.98% West 13 0 0 0 0 13 2.08% Northwest 6 0 0 0 0 6 0.96%

245 150 167 39 25 <= Counts 39.14% 23.96% 26.68% 6.23% 3.99% <= Percent These tables show that the combined episode using August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998, weighs heavily in the Northeast octant ( 25.3% compared to 16.7% in the 1993  1998 set, a difference of 8.6%), while the combined episode using September 16, 18 20, 1999 is very light ( 5.4% to 16.7%  a difference of 11.3%) in the same octant. Both combined episodes weigh heavily in the Southern octant (~ 31% to 19%). However, the 1998 episode is very light in the East ( 9.2% to 28.4%  a difference of 19.2%) and the Southeast ( 5.2% to 19.4%  a difference of 14.2%). The 1999 episode is better balanced in the East ( 17.7% to 28.4%  a difference of 10.7%) and the Southeast ( 28.6% to 19.4%  a difference of 9.2%). In this light, the September 16, 18 20, 1999 episode, combined with the Base Case set, does represent the required back A 27 trajectories marginally better than does the August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 combined set.

Figure A 6 shows that large NOx Point Sources exist to the east of San Antonio. Many are based in the Houston / Galveston area. This also argues in favor of the September 16, 18 20, 1999 episode, which shows a greater percentage of eastern trajectories than does the August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 trajectory set.

Combining the Base Case episode with the 1998 and 1999 episodes described above gives a good coverage of the required back trajectories. This is shown in table A 10 below. Compare these values with those in Table A 7.

Table A 10. Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995), Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 and Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 18 0 0 0 0 18 2.16% Northeast 25 33 35 28 30 151 18.13% East 68 28 19 12 11 138 16.57% Southeast 72 65 39 5 0 181 21.73% South 74 23 95 17 1 210 25.21% Southwest 46 27 10 0 0 83 9.96% West 30 15 0 0 0 45 5.40% Northwest 7 0 0 0 0 7 0.84%

340 191 198 62 42 <= Counts 40.82% 22.93% 23.77% 7.44% 5.04% <= Percent The conclusion for this chapter is that, in consideration of the back trajectories provided by the HYSPLIT model and the point source locations, the September 16, 18 20, 1999 will be a preferable episode to model next. However, the same data set strongly argues for another episode, the August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 period to follow. Recall that, according to Table A 3, the 1999 episode also would require a minumum of five days to model ( excluding ramp up days), while the 1998 episode would require seven days to model ( also excluding ramp up days). Thus the 1999 episode might be less expensive to model. A detailed trajectory count, both by combined and uncombined Hysplit runs, is provided in Table A 11. A 28 Table A 11. Total and Episode specific Trajectory Counts. 1993  1998 Ozone Exceedance Days for SA 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 13 0 1 2 2 18 2.05% Northeast 36 32 30 38 10 146 16.67% East 104 37 75 32 1 249 28.42% Southeast 60 35 36 26 13 170 19.41% South 41 39 52 32 3 167 19.06%

Southwest 12 21 3 1 0 37 4.22% West 31 5 0 0 0 36 4.11% Northwest 44 3 2 2 2 53 6.05%

341 172 199 133 31 <= Counts 38.93% 19.63% 22.72% 15.18% 3.54% <= Percent Base Case  July 10, 11, and 12, 1995 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 8 0 0 0 0 8 2.95% Northeast 4 0 0 0 0 4 1.48% East 8 8 1 0 0 17 6.27% Southeast 13 9 1 0 0 23 8.49% South 22 8 89 17 1 137 50.55% Southwest 29 27 10 0 0 66 24.35% West 10 0 0 0 0 10 3.69% Northwest 6 0 0 0 0 6 2.21%

100 52 101 17 1 <= Counts 36.90% 19.19% 37.27% 6.27% 0.37% <= Percent August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 10 0 0 0 0 10 4.83% Northeast 21 25 31 23 17 117 56.52% East 27 0 0 0 0 27 13.04% Southeast 1 1 0 0 0 2 0.97% South 10 0 0 0 0 10 4.83% Southwest 8 0 0 0 0 8 3.86% West 17 15 0 0 0 32 15.46% Northwest 1 0 0 0 0 1 0.48%

95 41 31 23 17 <= Counts 45.89% 19.81% 14.98% 11.11% 8.21% <= Percent A 29 August 30  September 1, 1999 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% Northeast 4 1 0 0 4 9 3.93% East 51 43 14 7 0 115 50.22% Southeast 60 25 18 2 0 105 45.85% South 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% Southwest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% West 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% Northwest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00%

115 69 32 9 4 <= Counts 50.22% 30.13% 13.97% 3.93% 1.75% <= Percent September 16, 18  20, 1999 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00% Northeast 0 8 4 5 13 30 8.45% East 33 20 18 12 11 94 26.48% Southeast 58 55 38 5 0 156 43.94% South 42 15 6 0 0 63 17.75% Southwest 9 0 0 0 0 9 2.54% West 3 0 0 0 0 3 0.85% Northwest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00%

145 98 66 22 24 <= Counts 40.85% 27.61% 18.59% 6.20% 6.76% <= Percent A comparison may be made between the 1993  1998 ozone exceedance days data and combinations of the base case with various candidate episode data. These combinations ( see Table A 12) help demonstrate that the back trajectories given by the combination of base case and various episodes will, to varying degrees, represent the back trajectories required to comprehensively represent the 1993  1998 ozone exceedance days trajectories. This represents one goal of the Conceptual Modeling exercise, identification of likely episodes according to the similarity of the candidate episode conditions  in this case, wind trajectories  compared to composite profile of high ozone days. A 30 Table A 12. Back Trajectories Counts and Percentages, Combined Data 1993  1998 Ozone Exceedance Days for San Antonio 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 13 0 1 2 2 18 2.05% Northeast 36 32 30 38 10 146 16.67% East 104 37 75 32 1 249 28.42% Southeast 60 35 36 26 13 170 19.41% South 41 39 52 32 3 167 19.06% Southwest 12 21 3 1 0 37 4.22% West 31 5 0 0 0 36 4.11% Northwest 44 3 2 2 2 53 6.05%

341 172 199 133 31 <= Counts 38.93% 19.63% 22.72% 15.18% 3.54% <= Percent Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995) plus Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 18 0 0 0 0 18 3.77% Northeast 25 25 31 23 17 121 25.31% East 35 8 1 0 0 44 9.21% Southeast 14 10 1 0 0 25 5.23% South 32 8 89 17 1 147 30.75% Southwest 37 27 10 0 0 74 15.48% West 27 15 0 0 0 42 8.79% Northwest 7 0 0 0 0 7 1.46%

195 93 132 40 18 <= Counts 40.79% 19.46% 27.62% 8.37% 3.77% <= Percent Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995) plus Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 8 0 0 0 0 8 1.28% Northeast 4 8 4 5 13 34 5.43% East 41 28 19 12 11 111 17.73% Southeast 71 64 39 5 0 179 28.59% South 64 23 95 17 1 200 31.95% Southwest 38 27 10 0 0 75 11.98% West 13 0 0 0 0 13 2.08% Northwest 6 0 0 0 0 6 0.96%

245 150 167 39 25 <= Counts 39.14% 23.96% 26.68% 6.23% 3.99% <= Percent A 31 Base Case ( July 10, 11, and 12, 1995), Sept 16, 18  20, 1999 and Aug 28, 30 Sept 3, 1998 0  50 Miles 50  100 100  150 150  200 200  250 Counts Percent North 18 0 0 0 0 18 2.16% Northeast 25 33 35 28 30 151 18.13% East 68 28 19 12 11 138 16.57% Southeast 72 65 39 5 0 181 21.73% South 74 23 95 17 1 210 25.21% Southwest 46 27 10 0 0 83 9.96% West 30 15 0 0 0 45 5.40% Northwest 7 0 0 0 0 7 0.84%

340 191 198 62 42 <= Counts 40.82% 22.93% 23.77% 7.44% 5.04% <= Percent Regional Considerations An overview of a data set pair is included here for the eastern half of Texas. A list of exceedance days is included below ( tables A 13 and A 14), which covers the August 25  September 4, 1998 and the September 13  20, 1999 periods.

Table A 13. Regional Considerations, 1998 Highest Daily Maximum by Area, 8 hour ozone average Exceedance Days for San Antonio 1998 Dallas

Fort Worth Tyler Longview

Marshall Beaumont

Port Arthur Houston Galveston

Brazoria Austin San Antonio Victoria Corpus Christi Laredo McAllen Edinburg

Mission Brownsville

Harlingen 8/ 25 79 63 63 45 72 44 30 23 23 24 25 19 8/ 26 83 68 85 82 111 42 31 17 26 20 23 14 8/ 27 90 84 104 87 132 62 56 51 42 29 28 16 X 8/ 28 84 87 114 93 114 84 89 55 52 36 33 30 8/ 29 84 83 96 87 149 88 84 72 75 52 38 31 X 8/ 30 100 85 73 99 118 92 92 48 42 56 33 27 8/ 31 96 78 82 46 72 84 74 60 49 33 31 26 9/ 1 102 73 73 41 53 79 69 47 53 54 44 41 9/ 2 120 99 86 62 75 74 76 62 82 55 64 56 X 9/ 3 100 91 107 94 152 101 87 71 76 51 41 36 X 9/ 4 92 90 96 97 128 95 110 78 78 50 59 63 A 32 Table A 14. Regional Considerations, 1999 Highest Daily Maximum by Area, 8 hour ozone average Exceedance Days for San Antonio 1999 Dallas Fort Worth Tyler Longview Marshall Beaumont Port Arthur Houston Galveston Brazoria Austin San Antonio Victoria Corpus Christi Laredo McAllen Edinburg Mission Brownsville Harlingen 9/ 13 49 43 45 66 82 55 64 67 70 48 47 50 9/ 14 69 60 58 64 88 62 66 67 76 61 50 54 9/ 15 80 85 75 70 97 78 82 78 82 56 70 68 X 9/ 16 78 82 79 89 104 85 85 79 81 65 68 66 9/ 17 99 86 75 69 111 99 76 86 81 55 64 57 X 9/ 18 99 91 86 101 98 99 96 87 89 61 71 66 X 9/ 19 96 91 97 100 120 101 91 84 88 59 71 55 X 9/ 20 92 99 110 79 124 87 86 99 75 53 65 54 The near non attainment areas for the 8 hour ozone NAAQS in Texas are Austin, San Antonio, Tyler Longview Marshall, Victoria and Corpus Christi for the 1997 1999 period. If a combined, regional photochemical model was to be undertaken by these areas, the September 1999 episode is preferable, in that there are no 8 hour exceedances for Corpus Christi or Victoria in the 1998 data set.

CONCLUSION Historical data reveals two annual periods of likely high ozone exceedances: May July and August October, with the central occurences in late June  early July and late August  late September. The 1995 Base Case Photochemical Model now with AACOG extends from July 7 August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 through July 12th. The two final episode candidates are represented by the September 16, 18 20, 1999 exceedance days or the August 28, 30 and September 3, 1998 exceedance days. The 1995 Base Case and either of the two final candidates represent the two seasonal periods.

The wind patterns for these two candidate episodes do follow the patterns of direction given in the wind roses fairly well. According to the wind roses for high ozone days, the morning winds are most likely to come from the south to southeast. According to CAMS 23 ( Marshall High) data, the morning winds for the episodes in question come from ( on average) the south or southeast. And the afternoon winds do swing to a more easterly direction. CAMS 23 has been in place since 1996, and so will most closely match the 1998 1997 data in the wind roses. Details of wind speed, resultant wind speed, and wind direction during the exceedance days, by monitoring station, are provided in tables A 15 through A 22. Wind direction, the direction from which the wind is blowing, is measured to the nearest degree based on a 360 degree compass with 360 degrees being from the North and 180 degrees being from the South. A 33 Table A 15. Wind Speed and Resultant Wind Speed at CAMS 58, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Camp Bullis, CAMS 58 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 28 Aug 98 82.25 4.10 3.63 5.78 4.68 30 Aug 98 87.50 5.13 4.65 5.53 4.80 03 Sep 98 87.38 3.88 3.30 3.68 2.75 04 Sep 98 110.25 3.13 2.35 4.43 3.20 Average 4.06 3.48 4.85 3.86 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 16 Sep 99 78.25 5.10 4.48 7.95 6.98 18 Sep 99 96.75 4.03 3.05 6.08 4.50 19 Sep 99 91.13 3.73 2.80 5.43 3.85 20 Sep 99 81.88 4.23 3.50 5.73 3.83 Average 4.27 3.46 6.29 4.79 Table A 16. Wind Direction at CAMS 58, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Camp Bullis, CAMS 58 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 28 Aug 98 82.25 327 109 30 Aug 98 87.50 122 120 03 Sep 98 87.38 279 201 04 Sep 98 110.25 253 160 Average 245 147 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 16 Sep 99 78.25 194 110 18 Sep 99 96.75 236 148 19 Sep 99 91.13 246 175 20 Sep 99 81.88 258 172 Average 233 151 A 34 Table A 17. Wind Speed and Resultant Wind Speed at CAMS 678, 1999 Episode* CPS/ Trinity Pecan Valley C678 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph)

16 Sep 99 74.00 3.93 3.35 5.58 4.80 18 Sep 99 76.25 2.70 1.70 3.88 2.55 19 Sep 99 84.88 2.55 1.88 3.85 1.93 20 Sep 99 86.88 4.38 3.85 3.53 1.98 Average 3.39 2.69 4.21 2.81 Table A 18. Wind Direction at CAMS 678, 1999 Episode* CPS/ Trinity Pecan Valley C678 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 8 10: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 16 Sep 99 74.00 129 90 18 Sep 99 76.25 205 102 19 Sep 99 84.88 241 147 20 Sep 99 86.88 248 157 Average 206 124 * There is no data available at CPS/ Trinity Pecan Valley C678 for August  September, 1998.

Table A 19. Wind Speed and Resultant Wind Speed at CAMS 23, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Marshall High C23 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m.. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph)

28 Aug 98 89.13 2.98 2.33 6.13 5.55 30 Aug 98 90.88 5.28 4.93 5.45 4.98 03 Sep 98 76.00 5.28 3.78 4.88 2.40 04 Sep 98 93.50 3.13 2.70 4.35 2.98 Average 4.16 3.43 5.20 3.98 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m.. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 16 Sep 99 85.63 5.85 5.25 7.23 6.45 18 Sep 99 92.88 3.73 2.55 4.83 3.23 19 Sep 99 89.88 3.58 2.70 4.33 2.60 20 Sep 99 84.63 5.08 4.43 4.60 2.80 Average 4.56 3.73 5.24 3.77 A 35 Table A 20. Wind Direction at CAMS 23, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Marshall High C23 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 28 Aug 98 89.13 282 101 30 Aug 98 90.88 55 108 03 Sep 98 76.00 248 215 04 Sep 98 93.50 183 141 Average 192 141 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 16 Sep 99 85.63 66 83 18 Sep 99 92.88 184 133 19 Sep 99 89.88 219 169 20 Sep 99 84.63 232 122 Average 175 126 Table A 21. Wind Speed and Resultant Wind Speed at CAMS 59, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Calaveras Lake C59 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph)

28 Aug 98 66.25 4.58 4.23 5.73 4.95 30 Aug 98 74.38 8.00 7.78 5.70 5.03 03 Sep 98 78.00 6.03 5.75 4.03 3.35 04 Sep 98 78.75 3.70 3.38 4.35 2.88 Average 5.58 5.28 4.95 4.05 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 8 10: 59 a. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Wind Speed Average ( mph) 1 3: 59 p. m. Resultant Wind Speed Average ( mph)

16 Sep 99 90.75 6.68 6.38 9.33 8.63 18 Sep 99 89.13 4.75 4.15 5.05 2.53 19 Sep 99 98.88 3.53 2.40 5.40 3.78 20 Sep 99 88.88 5.08 4.63 4.00 3.05 Average 5.01 4.39 5.94 4.49 A 36 Table A 22. Wind Direction at CAMS 59, 1998 and 1999 Episodes Calaveras Lake C59 August  September 1998 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 28 Aug 98 66.25 232 83 30 Aug 98 74.38 46 127 03 Sep 98 78.00 256 99 04 Sep 98 78.75 197 99 Average 183 102 September 1999 8 hour O3 high ( ppb) 8 10: 59 a. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 1 3: 59 p. m. Average Resultant Wind Direction 16 Sep 99 90.75 35 59 18 Sep 99 89.13 31 175 19 Sep 99 98.88 169 106 20 Sep 99 88.88 259 80 Average 123 105 While the complete list of exceedance days showed five possible episode candidates, several factors cut the list down to two. These factors are: lack of meteorological data; less than three ozone exceedance days within a single identifiable period; episode sequence was not found during the 1997 through 1999 ozone season period.

For the remaining two candidates, September 16 20, 1999, or August 28  September 3, 1998, an analysis of the back trajectories provided by the HYSPLIT model was performed. Comparing the back trajectories of historical ozone exceedance days with those of the exceedance days from each episode set, the September 16 20, 1999 trajectory set more closely resembled the desired balance of back trajectories. Moreover, the September 16 20, 1999 set showed a higher percentage of back trajectories from the east, a valuable asset, given the large number of NOx emitters found within 250 miles of San Antonio. However, a combination of the September 16 20, 1999 and the August 28  September 3, 1998 episodes well filled the back trajectory requirements.

Finally, if regional modeling considerations are weighed, the September 16 20, 1999 is the most practical next modeling episode for most of the other near non attainment areas to attempt. Of the two candidates, exceedance days for more of the five near nonattainment areas occured during the September 16 20, 1999 period. For these reasons, the September 16 20, 1999 is advised as the next photochemical modeling episode to be undertaken for photochemical modeling in the San Antonio region.


[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 149 (Friday, August 6, 2021)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Page 43091]
[FR Doc No: 2021-16617]

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DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Coast Guard

33 CFR Part 165

[Docket No. USCG-2021-0610]

Safety Zone; Recurring Events in Captain of the Port Duluth--
Bridgefest Regatta Fireworks

AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS.

ACTION: Notice of enforcement of regulation.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The Coast Guard will enforce a safety zone for the Bridgefest
Regatta Fireworks in Houghton, MI from 9:15 p.m. through 9:45 p.m. on
September 4, 2021. This action is necessary to protect participants and
spectators during the Bridgefest Regatta Fireworks. During the
enforcement period, entry into, transiting, or anchoring within the
safety zone is prohibited unless authorized by the Captain of the Port
Duluth or their designated on-scene representative.

DATES: The regulations in 33 CFR 165.943(b) will be enforced from 9:15
p.m. through 9:45 p.m. on September 04, 2021.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: If you have questions about this
notice of enforcement, call or email LTJG Joseph R. McGinnis, telephone
218-725-3818, email<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Coast Guard will enforce the safety zone
in 33 CFR 165.943(a)(1) for the Bridgefest Regatta Fireworks on all
waters of the Keweenaw Waterway bounded by the arc of a circle with a
100-yard radius from the fireworks launch site with its center in
approximate position 47[deg]07'28'' N, 088[deg]35'02'' W from 09:15
p.m. through 09:45 p.m.on September 04, 2021. This action is necessary
to protect participants and spectators during the Bridgefest Regatta
Fireworks.
    Entry into, transiting, or anchoring within the safety zone is
prohibited unless authorized by the Captain of the Port Duluth or their
designated on-scene representative. The Captain of the Port's
designated on-scene representative may be contacted via VHF Channel 16.
    This document is issued under authority of 33 CFR 165.943 and 5
U.S.C. 552 (a). In addition to this publication in the Federal
Register, the Coast Guard will provide the maritime community with
advance notification of the enforcement of this safety zone via
Broadcast Notice to Mariners. The Captain of the Port Duluth or their
on-scene representative may be contacted via VHF Channel 16.

    Dated: July 29, 2021
F.M. Smith,
Commander, U.S. Coast Guard, Captain of the Port Duluth.
[FR Doc. 2021-16617 Filed 8-5-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9110-04-P


[Federal Register: March 17, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 52)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Page 14177]
[DOCID:fr17mr08-5]

=======================================================================
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DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Food and Drug Administration

21 CFR Part 522

Implantation or Injectable Dosage Form New Animal Drugs;
Penicillin G Procaine Aqueous Suspension

AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS.

ACTION: Final rule.

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SUMMARY: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending the animal
drug regulations to reflect approval of a supplemental new animal drug
application (NADA) filed by IVX Animal Health, Inc. The supplemental
NADA provides for changing scientific nomenclature for a swine pathogen
on labeling for penicillin G procaine aqueous suspension.

DATES: This rule is effective March 17, 2008.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Cindy L. Burnsteel, Center for
Veterinary Medicine (HFV-130), Food and Drug Administration, 7500
Standish Pl., Rockville, MD 20855,<PHONE_NUMBER>, e-mail:
<EMAIL_ADDRESS>
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: IVX Animal Health, Inc., 3915 South 48th
Street Ter., St. Joseph, MO 64503, filed a supplement to NADA 65-110
for PEN-G MAX (penicillin G procaine) Aqueous Suspension used for the
treatment of animal diseases associated with several bacterial
pathogens. The supplemental NADA provides for changing a pathogen name
from Erysipelothrix insidiosato Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae on product
labeling. The supplemental NADA is approved as of February 12, 2008,
and the regulations are amended in 21 CFR 522.1696b to reflect the
approval.
    Approval of this supplemental NADA did not require review of
additional safety or effectiveness data or information. Therefore, a
freedom of information summary is not required.
    The agency has determined under 21 CFR 25.33(a)(1) that this action
is of a type that does not individually or cumulatively have a
significant effect on the human environment. Therefore, neither an
environmental assessment nor an environmental impact statement is
required.
    This rule does not meet the definition of ``rule'' in 5 U.S.C.
804(3)(A) because it is a rule of ``particular applicability.''
Therefore, it is not subject to the congressional review requirements
in 5 U.S.C. 801-808.

List of Subjects in 21 CFR Part 522

    Animal drugs.

0
Therefore, under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and under
authority delegated to the Commissioner of Food and Drugs and
redelegated to the Center for Veterinary Medicine, 21 CFR part 522 is
amended as follows:

PART 522--IMPLANTATION OR INJECTABLE DOSAGE FORM NEW ANIMAL DRUGS

0
1. The authority citation for 21 CFR part 522 continues to read as
follows:

    Authority: 21 U.S.C. 360b.

Sec.  522.1696b  [Amended]

0
2. In Sec.  522.1696b, in paragraph (d)(2)(ii), remove ``Erysipelothrix
insidiosa'' and add in its place ``Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae''.

    Dated: March 6, 2008.
Bernadette Dunham,
Director, Center for Veterinary Medicine.
[FR Doc. E8-5217 Filed 3-14-08; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 4160-01-S


Comment Info: =================

General Comment:Dear Mr. Zeller:

I am writing as an individual consumer to request an extension of the comment period for the Food and Drug Administration's ("FDA") Proposed Rule Deeming Tobacco Products to be Subject to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, as amended by the Family Smoking and Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (the "Proposed Rule") published at 79 Fed. Reg. 23,142 and Federal Register No. 2014-09491. On behalf of myself, I am requesting that the comment period for the Proposed Rule be extended by the FDA for an additional 105 days, from its current 75-day period, to 180 days.

The Proposed Rule raises a number of significant issues and questions that are important and relevant to me, as a consumer of products that are proposed for regulation under the Proposed Rule. The Proposed Rule asks about a hundred different questions I might want to respond to. I want to provide my thoughts and comments on many of these issues, but my time to devote to researching and providing thoughtful comments on these important questions is limited. I have already spent many hours researching and dissecting these issues, but they take time. I know that the FDA took many years to even come up with the Proposed Rule, so I do not think it is at all unreasonable to allow the public a mere six months to comment on it. This is our only opportunity, as consumers, to provide our feedback.

I feel very strongly about e-cigarettes as an alternative to combustible cigarettes. Quite simply, I firmly believe that they saved my life. Thanks to e-cigarettes, I am now combustible cigarette free for the first time in 24 years (and trying to quit for the last 9 years). I wish to provide you with my personal story in more detail, as well as science- and evidence-based responses to your questions so that you can take my comment into account. I realize that the FDA has the authority under 21 CFR 10.40 to extend this time frame and that the FDA has exercised this authority on numerous occasions in the past. I would therefore ask that you do so here, so that all stakeholders have the opportunity to provide their comments on this proposed regulation.

I appreciate your consideration of my request and am happy to discuss this issue with you further.