5...........................................        2025      46,855      64,517         107         145      32,352      43,361      57,736      79,010
6...........................................        2026      82,119     113,231         187         255      56,727      76,161     101,122     138,557
7...........................................        2027     121,940     168,381         277         378      84,277     113,350     150,052     205,873
8...........................................        2028     144,104     199,249         327         447      99,640     134,231     177,213     243,433
9...........................................        2029     152,069     210,514         345         472     105,191     141,918     186,899     257,022
10..........................................        2030     160,196     222,006         363         497     110,854     149,758     196,784     270,886
11..........................................        2031     167,621     232,533         379         521     116,033     156,950     205,804     283,568
12..........................................        2032     174,185     241,865         394         541     120,615     163,337     213,764     294,792
13..........................................        2033     180,128     250,340         407         559     124,769     169,145     220,962     304,969
14..........................................        2034     186,049     258,785         420         578     128,907     174,934     228,133     315,108
15..........................................        2035     191,219     266,186         432         594     132,525     180,018     234,382     323,976
16..........................................        2036     195,680     272,596         441         608     135,651     184,430     239,763     331,640
17..........................................        2037     199,807     278,538         450         621     138,545     188,523     244,737     338,737
18..........................................        2038     202,975     283,135         457         631     140,773     191,705     248,540     344,204
19..........................................        2039     205,888     287,369         464         640     142,823     194,636     252,034     349,234
20..........................................        2040     208,845     291,652         470         649     144,901     197,597     255,587     354,333
21..........................................        2041     212,188     296,460         478         660     147,244     200,908     259,617     360,079
22..........................................        2042     205,999     287,930         464         640     142,969     195,173     251,993     349,638
23..........................................        2043     207,175     289,675         466         644     143,803     196,394     253,389     351,688
24..........................................        2044     208,251     291,263         468         647     144,564     197,502     254,669     353,558
25..........................................        2045     209,421     292,967         471         651     145,388     198,684     256,071     355,582
26..........................................        2046     210,280     294,224         473         654     145,994     199,557     257,098     357,069
27..........................................        2047     211,429     295,876         475         657     146,799     200,694     258,483     359,043
28..........................................        2048     212,258     297,073         477         660     147,381     201,521     259,481     360,471
29..........................................        2049     213,224     298,458         479         663     148,057     202,472     260,648     362,129
30..........................................        2050     214,216     299,875         481         666     148,751     203,445     261,848     363,829
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(2) Summary of Injury and Property Damage Benefits by Model Year
    Under both approaches, the MY benefits were derived by dividing the
annual benefits among all involved MY vehicles according to their
survived volume and vehicle miles traveled. Afterwards, the annual
benefits for that specific MY vehicles were discounted by multiplying
them with an appropriate discounting factor. Finally, we summed the
annual discounted benefits of that MY vehicles over their operational
lifespan to derive the MY benefits. These benefits were discounted at a
3 percent and 7 percent discount rate to represent their present value.
Table VII-35 and Table VII-36 presents the discounted MY benefits from
MY 2021 to MY 2050 vehicles for every five MYs. As shown, the first MY
vehicles (i.e., MY 2021) would not accrue benefits due to the adoption
scenario used in the PRIA. At a three percent discount rate, the 5th
applicable MY vehicles (MY 2025) would prevent 20,094 to 82,481
crashes, save 46 to 186 lives, and reduce 13,847 to 55459 MAIS 1-5
injuries. At this discount, the MY 2025 would also eliminate 24,828 to
100,913 PDOVs. The 30th MY vehicles (MY 2050) would prevent 261,241 to
453,138 crashes, save 587 to 1,006 lives, reduce 181,408 to 307,409
injuries, and eliminate up to 549,803 PDOVs.

    At a seven percent discount rate, MY 2025 vehicles would prevent
18,321 to 65,517 crashes, save 42 to 145 lives, reduce 12,623 to 43,361
MAIS 1-5 injuries and eliminate 22,643 to 79,010 PDOVs. The MY 2050
vehicles would prevent 214,216 to 396,388 crashes, save 481 to 880
lives, reduce 148,741 to 268,906 MAIS 1-5 injuries, and eliminate up to
480,956 PDOVs.

                                    Table VII-35--Summary of MY Injury and Property Damage Benefits (at 3% Discount)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Crashes               Fatalities           MAIS 1-5 Injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
5...........................................        2025      20,094      82,461          46         186      13,847      55,459      24,828     100,913
10..........................................        2030     175,685     276,526         398         619     121,501     186,614     215,991     337,269
15..........................................        2035     234,712     362,101         530         809     162,695     244,762     287,627     440,931
20..........................................        2040     254,958     425,875         574         948     176,909     288,466     311,982     517,525
25..........................................        2045     255,409     438,253         574         974     177,320     297,187     312,289     531,965
30..........................................        2050     261,241     453,138         587       1,006     181,408     307,409     319,322     549,803
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                    Table VII-36--Summary of MY Injury and Property Damage Benefits (at 7% Discount)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Crashes               Fatalities           MAIS 1-5 Injuries             PDOVs
                    Year                      Model year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Low        High         Low        High         Low        High         Low        High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...........................................        2021           0           0           0           0           0           0           0           0
5...........................................        2025      18,321      64,517          42         145      12,623      43,361      22,643      79,010
10..........................................        2030     154,035     222,006         349         497     106,513     149,758     189,411     270,886
15..........................................        2035     191,219     316,898         432         708     132,525     214,173     234,382     385,947
20..........................................        2040     208,845     372,995         470         831     144,901     252,625     255,587     453,305
25..........................................        2045     209,421     383,630         471         853     145,388     260,137     256,071     465,677
30..........................................        2050     214,216     396,388         481         880     148,751     268,906     261,848     480,956
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Note that the range of benefits is due to the use of a range of
effectiveness rates and the two MY benefit estimating approaches. The
two benefit approaches, labeled as ``free-rider'' and ``no free-rider''
approaches, deployed a different treatment on the distribution of
benefits from crashes involving different MY vehicles.
3. Monetized Benefits
    The agency developed the monetized benefits by applying the
comprehensive cost for a fatality to the total equivalent lives saved
(i.e., fatal equivalents) in accordance with Department of
Transportation 2015 guidance.\366\. The guidance requires the
identified nonfatal MAIS injuries and PDOVs to be expressed in terms of
fatalities. This is done by comparing the comprehensive cost of
preventing nonfatal injuries to that of preventing a fatality.
Comprehensive costs include economic costs and the value of quality
life (QALYs). Economic costs reflect the tangible costs of reducing
fatalities and injuries which includes savings from medical care,
emergency services, insurance administration, workplace costs, legal
costs, congestion and property damage, as well as lost productivity.
The QALY captures the intangible value of lost quality-of-life that
results from potential fatalities and injuries.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \366\ ``Guidance on the Treatment of the Economic Value of a
Statistical Life (VSL) in U.S. Department of Transportation
Analyses'' February 28, 2013, https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/DOT%202013%20Signed%20VSL%20Memo.pdf (last
accessed Dec 8, 2016).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table VII-37 shows the comprehensive values and the relative
fatality ratios for MAIS injuries and PDOVs that were used to derived
the fatal equivalents.\367\ As shown, the comprehensive cost of
preventing a fatality is currently valued at $9.7 million. A MAIS 5
injury, for example, is 0.6136 fatal equivalents. Thus, monetized
benefits can be derived by multiplying $9.7 million by the derived
fatal equivalents.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \367\ Revise to 2014 $ from the unit costs published in this
report, Blincoe, L. J., Miller, T. R., Zaloshnja, E., & Lawrence, B.
A. (2015, May). The economic and societal impact of motor vehicle
crashes, 2010. (Revised) (Report No. DOT HS 812 013). Washington,
DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table VII-37 also shows the unit costs for congestion and property
damage. These two costs are considered to be part of the comprehensive
costs. The congestion and property damage costs are provided now for
later use when calculating the net costs of the proposed rule. The net
costs are defined as the total vehicle costs minus the savings from
reducing property damage and crash related congestion.

                     Table VII-37--Unit Congestion, Property Damage, and Comprehensive Cost
                                                    [2014 $]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   Property       Comprehensive      Relative
                Injury category                   Congestion        damage            cost        fatality ratio
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PDOVs.........................................          $2,280          $3,908            $6,591         $0.0007
MAIS 0........................................           1,535           2,923             4,753          0.0005
MAIS 1........................................           1,545           8,641            47,144          0.0049
MAIS 2........................................           1,572           9,239           449,239          0.0463
MAIS 3........................................           1,615          17,400         1,065,032          0.1097

MAIS 4........................................           1,638          17,727         2,612,382          0.2690
MAIS 5........................................           1,657          16,385         5,958,375          0.6136
Fatality......................................           6,200          12,172         9,710,659          1.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(a) Monetized Annual Benefits
    Table VII-38 provides the undiscounted annual fatal equivalents,
monetized benefits, and property damage and congestion savings of the
proposed rule from the year 2021 to 2060. As shown, by Year 5 the
proposed rule is estimated to save 129 to 169 fatal equivalents
totaling approximately $1.3 to $1.6 billion annually. Approximately 12
percent of the monetized savings, $176 to $237 million, are from the
estimated reduction of property damage and congestion. By the year
2060, with V2V fully deployed, the proposed rule is estimated to save
approximately 5,631 to 7,613 fatal equivalents annually. Finally, the
total associated monetized annual savings would range from $54.7 to
$73.9 billion. Of these savings, $7.7 to $10.6 billion is estimated to
be property damage and congestion savings.
(b) Maximum Monetized Annual Benefit
    The proposed rule would save a maximum of $54.7 to $74.0 billion
annually after the full adoption of DSRC radios and the two safety
apps. Of these amounts, $7.7 to $10.6 billion are the potential savings
from reducing crash related congestion and vehicle property damage.

                                                         Table VII-38--Annual Monetized Benefits
                                                           [Undiscounted, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Fatal equivalents           Total monetized benefits     Property damage and congestion
                  Year                     Calendar year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021            0.00            0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00
2.......................................            2022            1.98            2.57           19.18           24.99            2.69            3.60
3.......................................            2023           12.98           16.97          126.05          164.75           17.67           23.75
4.......................................            2024           50.94           66.58          494.62          646.51           69.35           93.20
5.......................................            2025          129.38          169.32        1,256.34        1,644.21          176.14          237.00
6.......................................            2026          273.40          358.63        2,654.86        3,482.52          372.24          501.88
7.......................................            2027          492.69          648.24        4,784.30        6,294.87          670.88          906.96
8.......................................            2028          760.14        1,003.08        7,381.47        9,740.54        1,035.15        1,403.08
9.......................................            2029        1,055.03        1,395.74       10,245.07       13,553.52        1,436.84        1,951.93
10......................................            2030        1,373.29        1,820.47       13,335.53       17,677.94        1,870.39        2,545.51
11......................................            2031        1,708.97        2,269.74       16,595.21       22,040.63        2,327.71        3,173.24
12......................................            2032        2,055.46        2,734.45       19,959.89       26,553.31        2,799.80        3,822.44
13......................................            2033        2,406.57        3,206.42       23,369.32       31,136.42        3,278.19        4,481.66
14......................................            2034        2,756.78        3,678.26       26,770.14       35,718.29        3,755.42        5,140.59
15......................................            2035        3,099.49        4,141.07       30,098.04       40,212.46        4,222.44        5,786.78
16......................................            2036        3,427.08        4,584.47       33,279.20       44,518.16        4,668.90        6,405.77
17......................................            2037        3,734.36        5,001.37       36,263.04       48,566.54        5,087.70        6,987.66
18......................................            2038        4,016.39        5,384.96       39,001.73       52,291.53        5,472.13        7,522.96
19......................................            2039        4,267.25        5,727.35       41,437.81       55,616.35        5,814.11        8,000.63
20......................................            2040        4,486.82        6,028.11       43,569.99       58,536.92        6,113.46        8,420.10
21......................................            2041        4,674.40        6,286.06       45,391.52       61,041.76        6,369.24        8,779.76
22......................................            2042        4,829.59        6,500.30       46,898.45       63,122.18        6,580.86        9,078.39
23......................................            2043        4,958.71        6,679.27       48,152.35       64,860.05        6,756.97        9,327.77
24......................................            2044        5,065.75        6,827.92       49,191.70       66,303.56        6,902.96        9,534.88
25......................................            2045        5,153.64        6,950.12       50,045.25       67,490.21        7,022.85        9,705.13
26......................................            2046        5,228.04        7,053.49       50,767.72       68,493.96        7,124.33        9,849.14
27......................................            2047        5,293.45        7,144.11       51,402.88       69,373.99        7,213.54        9,975.43
28......................................            2048        5,351.13        7,223.76       51,963.02       70,147.39        7,292.20       10,086.44
29......................................            2049        5,402.91        7,295.12       52,465.83       70,840.43        7,362.81       10,185.94
30......................................            2050        5,448.79        7,358.22       52,911.30       71,453.12        7,425.36       10,273.91
31......................................            2051        5,486.64        7,410.41       53,278.83       71,959.96        7,476.97       10,346.67
32......................................            2052        5,519.98        7,456.51       53,602.60       72,407.63        7,522.44       10,410.92
33......................................            2053        5,547.41        7,494.52       53,868.95       72,776.73        7,559.85       10,463.88
34......................................            2054        5,570.75        7,526.96       54,095.66       73,091.76        7,591.69       10,509.08
35......................................            2055        5,590.30        7,554.13       54,285.50       73,355.51        7,618.36       10,546.93
36......................................            2056        5,606.76        7,577.01       54,445.28       73,577.69        7,640.80       10,578.80
37......................................            2057        5,618.70        7,593.79       54,561.30       73,740.69        7,657.10       10,602.17
38......................................            2058        5,625.16        7,603.20       54,623.95       73,832.03        7,665.92       10,615.22
39......................................            2059        5,629.36        7,609.56       54,664.73       73,893.77        7,671.66       10,624.03
40......................................            2060        5,631.45        7,612.92       54,685.04       73,926.44        7,674.53       10,628.67
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(c) Monetized Benefits by Vehicle Model Year
    The range of the monetized benefits by vehicle model year (i.e.,
the lifetime benefits of a MY vehicles) represents the estimates from
both the ``free-rider'' and ``no free-rider'' approaches. The lower
bound of the range represents the low estimate from the ``free-rider''
approach and upper bound represents the high estimate of ``no free-
rider'' approach. For each approach, the low and high estimates
correspond to the low and high app effectiveness, respectively. Table
VII-39 and Table VII-40 show the monetized MY benefits at a 3 percent
and 7 percent discount rate, respectively.
    As shown, at a three percent discount rate, MY 2022 vehicles would
save 3 to 68 fatal equivalent and $33.8 to $659.0 million over their
lifespan. MY 2050 vehicles would save a total 3,350 to 5,608 fatal
equivalents and $32.5 to $54.5 billion. The property damage and
congestion savings would range from $4.7 to $94.9 million for MY 2022
vehicles and $4.6 to $7.8 billion for 2050 MY vehicles.
    At a seven percent discount rate, the MY 2022 vehicles would save 3
to 51 fatal equivalents and $31.8 to $497.0 million over their
lifespan. MY 2050 vehicles would save a total 2,747 to 4,906 fatal
equivalents and $26.7 to $47.6 billion. Of these monetized savings, the
property damage and congestion savings are estimated to be $4.5 to
$71.6 million for MY 2022 vehicles and $3.7 to $6.8 billion for 2050 MY
vehicles.

                                                Table VII-39--Monetized MY Benefits at 3 Percent Discount
                                                                  [2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Fatal  equivalents           Total monetized  benefits          Property damage and
                                                         ----------------------------------------------------------------           congestion
                  Year                      Model year                                                                   -------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021            0.00            0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00
2.......................................            2022            3.48           67.86           33.79          658.99            4.74           94.91
3.......................................            2023           23.35          208.55          226.72        2,025.12           31.79          291.65
4.......................................            2024          104.31          580.04        1,012.92        5,632.53          142.02          811.11
5.......................................            2025          257.57        1,017.05        2,501.20        9,876.22          350.72        1,422.05
6.......................................            2026          586.69        1,774.90        5,697.12       17,235.41          798.94        2,481.38
7.......................................            2027        1,112.42        2,621.45       10,802.30       25,455.98        1,515.02        3,664.44
8.......................................            2028        1,606.16        3,090.78       15,596.91       30,013.55        2,187.63        4,320.00
9.......................................            2029        1,946.18        3,250.93       18,898.69       31,568.66        2,650.90        4,543.36
10......................................            2030        2,252.45        3,415.26       21,872.79       33,164.45        3,068.24        4,772.57
11......................................            2031        2,523.52        3,563.63       24,505.02       34,605.22        3,437.64        4,979.46
12......................................            2032        2,761.74        3,697.69       26,818.31       35,906.98        3,762.58        5,166.34
13......................................            2033        2,847.78        3,975.69       27,653.77       38,606.57        3,879.91        5,555.21
14......................................            2034        2,934.41        4,241.63       28,495.06       41,189.00        3,998.06        5,926.26
15......................................            2035        3,009.61        4,475.08       29,225.26       43,456.01        4,100.63        6,251.90
16......................................            2036        3,074.84        4,678.59       29,858.67       45,432.21        4,189.61        6,535.69
17......................................            2037        3,134.46        4,858.86       30,437.71       47,182.69        4,270.96        6,787.01
18......................................            2038        3,182.03        5,007.07       30,899.56       48,621.96        4,335.86        6,993.56
19......................................            2039        3,224.93        5,139.68       31,316.16       49,909.68        4,394.41        7,178.33
20......................................            2040        3,269.38        5,267.60       31,747.87       51,151.88        4,455.07        7,356.56
21......................................            2041        3,320.90        5,404.46       32,248.10       52,480.81        4,525.34        7,547.30
22......................................            2042        3,224.76        5,283.11       31,314.49       51,302.48        4,394.39        7,377.52
23......................................            2043        3,241.75        5,334.51       31,479.52       51,801.61        4,417.60        7,449.02
24......................................            2044        3,258.96        5,380.31       31,646.62       52,246.36        4,441.10        7,512.74
25......................................            2045        3,275.27        5,423.17       31,805.05       52,662.57        4,463.36        7,572.40
26......................................            2046        3,290.63        5,461.25       31,954.16       53,032.36        4,484.32        7,625.42
27......................................            2047        3,306.52        5,499.93       32,108.44       53,407.94        4,505.99        7,679.31
28......................................            2048        3,319.75        5,536.44       32,236.99       53,762.45        4,524.05        7,730.18
29......................................            2049        3,333.27        5,571.05       32,368.22       54,098.58        4,542.49        7,778.42
30......................................            2050        3,350.10        5,608.31       32,531.65       54,460.39        4,565.44        7,830.37
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                Table VII-40--Monetized MY Benefits at 7 Percent Discount
                                                                  [2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Fatal equivalents           Total monetized benefits           Property damage and
                                                         ----------------------------------------------------------------           congestion
                  Year                      Model year                                                                   -------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021            0.00            0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00           $0.00
2.......................................            2022            3.28           51.18           31.80          497.03            4.46           71.59
3.......................................            2023           21.83          159.55          212.00        1,549.29           29.72          223.15
4.......................................            2024           96.35          450.18          935.65        4,371.50          131.19          629.59
5.......................................            2025          234.85          795.52        2,280.53        7,725.00          319.78        1,112.43
6.......................................            2026          527.59        1,396.62        5,123.26       13,562.13          718.45        1,952.75
7.......................................            2027          989.03        2,077.54        9,604.09       20,174.30        1,346.94        2,904.40
8.......................................            2028        1,416.94        2,459.15       13,759.41       23,879.93        1,929.87        3,437.45
9.......................................            2029        1,710.25        2,598.90       16,607.61       25,236.98        2,329.50        3,632.38
10......................................            2030        1,974.86        2,741.45       19,177.23       26,621.24        2,690.07        3,831.23
11......................................            2031        2,149.18        2,947.24       20,869.91       28,619.59        2,927.85        4,119.15
12......................................            2032        2,233.37        3,227.88       21,687.48       31,344.84        3,042.66        4,510.89

13......................................            2033        2,309.61        3,478.57       22,427.83       33,779.21        3,146.63        4,860.73
14......................................            2034        2,385.57        3,711.72       23,165.40       36,043.23        3,250.21        5,186.03
15......................................            2035        2,451.89        3,916.19       23,809.50       38,028.75        3,340.68        5,471.24
16......................................            2036        2,509.12        4,095.07       24,365.23       39,765.77        3,418.75        5,720.68
17......................................            2037        2,562.08        4,254.99       24,879.46       41,318.79        3,490.99        5,943.64
18......................................            2038        2,602.73        4,384.79       25,274.25       42,579.22        3,546.47        6,124.52
19......................................            2039        2,640.12        4,501.23       25,637.28       43,709.92        3,597.49        6,286.75
20......................................            2040        2,678.06        4,613.37       26,005.75       44,798.85        3,649.27        6,442.98
21......................................            2041        2,720.95        4,730.53       26,422.20       45,936.55        3,707.77        6,606.25
22......................................            2042        2,641.60        4,624.69       25,651.68       44,908.74        3,599.70        6,458.14
23......................................            2043        2,656.70        4,670.32       25,798.30       45,351.86        3,620.32        6,521.61
24......................................            2044        2,670.51        4,709.04       25,932.43       45,727.85        3,639.18        6,575.46
25......................................            2045        2,685.53        4,747.17       26,078.29       46,098.16        3,659.68        6,628.54
26......................................            2046        2,696.56        4,779.45       26,185.33       46,411.61        3,674.73        6,673.47
27......................................            2047        2,711.29        4,815.03       26,328.44       46,757.14        3,694.84        6,723.04
28......................................            2048        2,721.94        4,845.29       26,431.78       47,050.95        3,709.36        6,765.20
29......................................            2049        2,734.33        4,873.87       26,552.13       47,328.48        3,726.26        6,805.02
30......................................            2050        2,747.06        4,905.91       26,675.71       47,639.58        3,743.62        6,849.69
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The agency seeks comment on all aspects of the monetized benefits
developed for this proposal. More specifically, the assumptions used
for the benefits calculations which are the basis the estimates. Please
provide any supporting data for the comments. If necessary, the agency
has processes and procedures for submitting confidential business
information.
4. Non-Quantified Benefits
    As discussed above, the agency has only quantified potential
benefits of this rule derived from the assumed adoption of IMA and LTA.
Although this assumption allows the agency to provide a reasonable
quantification of the potential benefits of this rulemaking, it does
not account for many other potential benefits of V2V. The non-
quantified benefits of the proposed rule can come from several sources:
(1) The effects of enhancing vehicle-resident safety systems, (2) the
incremental benefits over the current vehicle-resident safety systems,
(3) the potential impact of the next generation V2V apps that would
actively assist drivers to avoid crashes rather than simply issuing
warnings, (4) the impact of enabling wide range deployment of V2P and
V2I apps, and (5) the effects of adding V2V sensor input to other
sensors utilized for automation. The agency does not quantify the
potential impacts of these sources primarily due to lack of data (e.g.,
effectiveness of the apps, incremental effective rate of the V2V apps
over the vehicle-resident systems, etc.) that can be used to discern
these benefits.
(a) The Effect for Enhancing Vehicle-Resident Safety Systems
    For vehicles equipped with current on-board sensors, V2V can offer
a fundamentally different, but complementary, source of information
that can significantly enhance the reliability and accuracy of the
information available. Instead of relying on each vehicle to sense its
surroundings on its own, V2V enables surrounding vehicles to help each
other by reporting safety information to each other. V2V communication
can also detect threat vehicles that are not in the sensors' field of
view, and can use a V2V signal to validate a return from a vehicle-
based sensor. This added capability can potentially lead to improved
warning timing and a reduction in the number of false warnings, thereby
adding confidence to the overall safety system, and increasing consumer
satisfaction and acceptance. The vehicle-resident FCW, LCM/BSW systems
can be improved by BSMs. However, the agency could not quantify the
benefit due to lack of the measurement of how BSM can improve the
vehicle-resident systems.
(b) Incremental Benefits of the V2V Apps
    Due to the sensing advantage of the V2V apps, the agency believes
that these apps also have some incremental benefits over the vehicle-
resident version of the systems. For example, V2V-based FCW and LCM
might perform better than the vehicle-resident systems. However,
benefits from these apps could accrue if they add a marginal
effectiveness to the existing in-vehicle systems, or if they enable the
installation of these apps in vehicles that do not voluntarily have
these systems. This later effect would occur due to the significant
marginal cost reduction for these apps that would result from V2V.
However, we do not have sufficient data to determine the marginal
effectiveness of V2V for these apps and the added installation rates.
Therefore, we did not quantify this type of benefits.
(c) Potential Impact of Next Generation V2V Apps
    The agency believes that the V2V apps will be evolved as did the
vehicle-resident systems. The next generation V2V apps, we envision,
can also actively assist drivers to avoid crashes as did the vehicle-
resident crash avoidance systems (such as advance brake assist).
Furthermore, the new apps might be applicable to motorcycle crashes.
V2V could increase the adoption of these apps to lower incremental
cost.
(d) The Impact of Enabling V2P and V2I Apps
    The V2V also is the foundation for the deployment V2P and V2I apps.
For V2P, pedestrians can carry devices (such as mobile phones) with a
V2V chip that can send out a safety signal to V2V devices in the
vehicles and vice versa. Both the driver and the pedestrian could be
warned if a possible conflict arises. Specifically, V2P can protect
pedestrians in crosswalk and improve mobility. However, there are many
issues to be resolved concerning V2P

apps. The agency is developing a research plan that will investigate
issues relating to V2P communication, safety applications, and human
factors, and among other things.
    The same communications technology that supports V2V apps could
also enable a broader set of safety and mobility applications when
combined with compatible roadway infrastructure. The potential V2I apps
have been identified included: Red Light Violation Warning, Curve Speed
Warning, Stop Sign Gap Assist, Reduced Speed Zone Warning, Spot Weather
Information Warning, Stop Sign Violation Warning, Railroad Crossing
Violation Warning, and Oversize Vehicle Warning.\368\ These V2I apps
can mitigate congestion and facilitate green transportation choices,
thus reducing the energy consumptions and environmental impacts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \368\ The Connected Vehicle Core System Architecture, See
www.its.dot.gov/research/systems_engineering.htm (last accessed Jan.
9, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

(e) The Effects of Paving the Way for Automation
    We believe that V2X technology may be necessary to realize the full
potential of vehicle automation (e.g., self-driving vehicles), as such
communication would provide a vehicle with the highest level of
awareness of its surroundings, which is likely necessary in situations
where the driver cedes all control of safety-critical functions and
relies on the vehicle to monitor roadway and driving conditions.

E. Breakeven Analysis

    The agency conducted a breakeven analysis of the proposed rule's
estimated costs and benefits. The analysis is used to determine when
the cumulative estimated benefits will recoup the investment made up to
that year. In essence, this analysis determines the year that the total
investment of the proposed rule will be paid back through the total
realized benefits of the proposed rule. The total investment of the
proposed rule for a year is the cumulative annual costs from the first
year of implementation up to that year. Similarly, the total realized
benefits would be the cumulative monetized annual benefits from the
first year of implementation up to that year. All annual costs and
monetized benefits used in this analysis are discounted back to 2021,
the projected first year of implementation of the proposed rule. In
determining the potential breakeven point, the agency needed to develop
the undiscounted annual net benefits yielding the values shown in Table
VII-41. As shown, undiscounted, the proposed rule would accrue a
positive annual benefit around 2026 and 2027.

                                                            Table VII-41--Annual Net Benefits
                                                            [Undiscounted, 2014$ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Total monetized benefits              Annual costs                 Annual net benefits
                  Year                     Calendar year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021              $0              $0          $2,192          $2,864         -$2,864         -$2,192
2.......................................            2022              19              25           3,011           3,926          -3,907          -2,986
3.......................................            2023             126             165           3,832           4,946          -4,820          -3,668
4.......................................            2024             495             647           3,741           4,981          -4,486          -3,095
5.......................................            2025           1,256           1,644           3,701           4,803          -3,547          -2,057
6.......................................            2026           2,655           3,483           3,655           4,735          -2,080            -173
7.......................................            2027           4,784           6,295           3,640           4,705              79           2,655
8.......................................            2028           7,381           9,741           3,634           4,690           2,692           6,106
9.......................................            2029          10,245          13,554           3,622           4,668           5,577           9,931
10......................................            2030          13,336          17,678           3,649           4,692           8,643          14,029
11......................................            2031          16,595          22,041           3,659           4,699          11,896          18,381
12......................................            2032          19,960          26,553           3,662           4,699          15,261          22,891
13......................................            2033          23,369          31,136           3,665           4,699          18,670          27,471
14......................................            2034          26,770          35,718           3,682           4,719          22,051          32,036
15......................................            2035          30,098          40,212           3,717           4,757          25,341          36,495
16......................................            2036          33,279          44,518           3,713           4,731          28,548          40,805
17......................................            2037          36,263          48,567           3,734           4,726          31,537          44,833
18......................................            2038          39,002          52,292           3,749           4,736          34,266          48,543
19......................................            2039          41,438          55,616           3,769           4,858          36,580          51,847
20......................................            2040          43,570          58,537           3,831           4,844          38,726          54,706
21......................................            2041          45,392          61,042           3,856           4,872          40,519          57,186
22......................................            2042          46,898          63,122           3,737           4,715          42,183          59,385
23......................................            2043          48,152          64,860           3,744           4,719          43,434          61,116
24......................................            2044          49,192          66,304           3,752           4,723          44,469          62,552
25......................................            2045          50,045          67,490           3,796           4,764          45,281          63,695
26......................................            2046          50,768          68,494           3,770           4,736          46,032          64,724
27......................................            2047          51,403          69,374           3,780           4,745          46,658          65,594
28......................................            2048          51,963          70,147           3,789           4,752          47,211          66,359
29......................................            2049          52,466          70,840           3,797           4,759          47,707          67,043
30......................................            2050          52,911          71,453           3,858           4,818          48,093          67,595
31......................................            2051          53,279          71,960           3,822           4,761          48,518          68,138
32......................................            2052          53,603          72,408           3,813           4,732          48,870          68,594
33......................................            2053          53,869          72,777           3,805           4,719          49,150          68,972
34......................................            2054          54,096          73,092           3,797           4,810          49,285          69,295
35......................................            2055          54,285          73,356           3,832           4,766          49,520          69,523
36......................................            2056          54,445          73,578           3,782           4,711          49,734          69,795
37......................................            2057          54,561          73,741           3,775           4,700          49,862          69,966
38......................................            2058          54,624          73,832           3,768           4,688          49,936          70,064
39......................................            2059          54,665          73,894           3,761           4,677          49,987          70,133
40......................................            2060          54,685          73,926           3,804           4,717          49,968          70,122
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table VII-42 and Table VII-43 show the discounted cumulative annual
benefits, cumulative annual costs, cumulative annual net benefits, and
breakeven year at a 3 and 7 percent rate, respectively. As shown, the
proposed rule would be expected to break even between 2029 and 2031 for
a 3 percent discount rate and 2030 to 2032 for a 7 percent discount
rate.

                                                            Table VII-42--Breakeven Analysis
                                                           [at 3 Percent, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Cumulative  monetized   Total cumulative  annual  Cumulative  net benefits       Breakeven  year
                                       Calendar           benefits                    costs          ---------------------------------------------------
                Year                     year    ----------------------------------------------------
                                                      Low          High         Low          High         Low          High         Low          High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1..................................         2021           $0           $0       $2,160       $2,822      -$2,822      -$2,160          (*)          (*)
2..................................         2022           18           24        5,040        6,578       -6,559       -5,016          (*)          (*)
3..................................         2023          135          177        8,600       11,172      -11,036       -8,423          (*)          (*)
4..................................         2024          581          760       11,973       15,663      -15,081      -11,213          (*)          (*)
5..................................         2025        1,681        2,199       15,213       19,868      -18,186      -13,014          (*)          (*)
6..................................         2026        3,938        5,160       18,320       23,892      -19,954      -13,161          (*)          (*)
7..................................         2027        7,886       10,354       21,324       27,775      -19,889      -10,970          (*)          (*)
8..................................         2028       13,800       18,158       24,236       31,533      -17,732       -6,078          (*)          (*)
9..................................         2029       21,769       28,700       27,053       35,164      -13,395        1,647          (*)         2029
10.................................         2030       31,840       42,050       29,809       38,707       -6,867       12,241          (*)         2030
11.................................         2031       44,007       58,211       32,492       42,152        1,855       25,719         2031         2031
12.................................         2032       58,215       77,111       35,099       45,497       12,718       42,013         2032         2032
13.................................         2033       74,365       98,630       37,632       48,744       25,621       60,998         2033         2033
14.................................         2034       92,328      122,597       40,102       51,911       40,417       82,494         2034         2034
15.................................         2035      111,934      148,791       42,524       55,009       56,925      106,267         2035         2035
16.................................         2036      132,980      176,944       44,872       58,001       74,979      132,072         2036         2036
17.................................         2037      155,245      206,764       47,165       60,903       94,342      159,599         2037         2037
18.................................         2038      178,494      237,935       49,400       63,726      114,768      188,536         2038         2038
19.................................         2039      202,478      270,126       51,581       66,537      135,941      218,545         2039         2039
20.................................         2040      226,960      303,018       53,734       69,259      157,701      249,284         2040         2040
21.................................         2041      251,726      336,322       55,837       71,918      179,808      280,485         2041         2041
22.................................         2042      276,568      369,758       57,817       74,415      202,153      311,941         2042         2042
23.................................         2043      301,328      403,109       59,742       76,841      224,486      343,367         2043         2043
24.................................         2044      325,889      436,214       61,616       79,200      246,690      374,599         2044         2044
25.................................         2045      350,146      468,927       63,455       81,509      268,637      405,472         2045         2045
26.................................         2046      374,038      501,160       65,229       83,738      290,300      435,931         2046         2046
27.................................         2047      397,524      532,857       66,956       85,906      311,618      465,901         2047         2047
28.................................         2048      420,574      563,975       68,637       88,014      332,561      495,337         2048         2048
29.................................         2049      443,171      594,486       70,273       90,063      353,108      524,213         2049         2049
30.................................         2050      465,294      624,360       71,886       92,078      373,216      552,474         2050         2050
31.................................         2051      486,919      653,569       73,437       94,010      392,909      580,132         2051         2051
32.................................         2052      508,044      682,104       74,940       95,875      412,169      607,165         2052         2052
33.................................         2053      528,654      709,949       76,396       97,681      430,974      633,553         2053         2053
34.................................         2054      548,751      737,102       77,806       99,468      449,283      659,296         2054         2054
35.................................         2055      568,332      763,562       79,189      101,187      467,145      684,373         2055         2055
36.................................         2056      587,399      789,329       80,513      102,837      484,562      708,816         2056         2056
37.................................         2057      605,949      814,401       81,797      104,435      501,515      732,604         2057         2057
38.................................         2058      623,981      838,772       83,040      105,982      517,999      755,732         2058         2058
39.................................         2059      641,501      862,455       84,246      107,481      534,020      778,210         2059         2059
40.................................         2060      658,513      885,454       85,429      108,949      549,565      800,025         2060         2060
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Not breakeven.

                                                            Table VII-43--Breakeven Analysis
                                                           [at 7 Percent, 2014 $ in Millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Cumulative monetized     Total cumulative annual   Cumulative net benefits       Breakeven year
                                       Calendar           benefits                    costs          ---------------------------------------------------
                Year                     year    ----------------------------------------------------
                                                      Low          High         Low          High         Low          High         Low          High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1..................................         2021           $0           $0       $2,119       $2,768      -$2,768      -$2,119          (*)          (*)
2..................................         2022           17           23        4,840        6,316       -6,299       -4,817          (*)          (*)
3..................................         2023          124          162        8,076       10,492      -10,369       -7,914          (*)          (*)
4..................................         2024          514          672       11,028       14,423      -13,909      -10,356          (*)          (*)
5..................................         2025        1,441        1,884       13,757       17,965      -16,524      -11,873          (*)          (*)
6..................................         2026        3,271        4,285       16,277       21,228      -17,958      -11,992          (*)          (*)
7..................................         2027        6,353        8,340       18,622       24,260      -17,907      -10,282          (*)          (*)
8..................................         2028       10,796       14,204       20,810       27,083      -16,287       -6,606          (*)          (*)
9..................................         2029       16,560       21,829       22,847       29,709      -13,149       -1,018          (*)          (*)
10.................................         2030       23,572       31,124       24,766       32,176       -8,604        6,358          (*)         2030
11.................................         2031       31,727       41,955       26,564       34,485       -2,759       15,391          (*)         2031
12.................................         2032       40,894       54,151       28,246       36,643        4,251       25,905         2032         2032

13.................................         2033       50,925       67,515       29,819       38,660       12,264       37,695         2033         2033
14.................................         2034       61,665       81,845       31,297       40,554       21,111       50,548         2034         2034
15.................................         2035       72,949       96,920       32,690       42,337       30,612       64,230         2035         2035
16.................................         2036       84,610      112,520       33,991       43,995       40,615       78,528         2036         2036
17.................................         2037       96,486      128,425       35,214       45,542       50,943       93,211         2037         2037
18.................................         2038      108,420      144,426       36,361       46,992       61,429      108,065         2038         2038
19.................................         2039      120,271      160,333       37,439       48,381       71,891      122,893         2039         2039
20.................................         2040      131,918      175,980       38,463       49,676       82,242      137,516         2040         2040
21.................................         2041      143,257      191,228       39,427       50,893       92,364      151,801         2041         2041
22.................................         2042      154,207      205,967       40,299       51,994      102,214      165,668         2042         2042
23.................................         2043      164,714      220,119       41,116       53,023      111,691      179,003         2043         2043
24.................................         2044      174,744      233,639       41,881       53,986      120,758      191,757         2044         2044
25.................................         2045      184,283      246,502       42,605       54,894      129,388      203,898         2045         2045
26.................................         2046      193,325      258,701       43,276       55,738      137,587      215,425         2046         2046
27.................................         2047      201,883      270,252       43,905       56,528      145,355      226,346         2047         2047
28.................................         2048      209,969      281,167       44,495       57,267      152,701      236,672         2048         2048
29.................................         2049      217,597      291,467       45,047       57,959      159,638      246,420         2049         2049
30.................................         2050      224,788      301,177       45,571       58,614      166,174      255,606         2050         2050
31.................................         2051      231,554      310,316       46,057       59,219      172,336      264,260         2051         2051
32.................................         2052      237,917      318,911       46,509       59,780      178,136      272,402         2052         2052
33.................................         2053      243,891      326,982       46,931       60,304      183,587      280,051         2053         2053
34.................................         2054      249,501      334,562       47,325       60,803      188,698      287,236         2054         2054
35.................................         2055      254,761      341,670       47,697       61,264      193,497      293,973         2055         2055
36.................................         2056      259,688      348,329       48,039       61,691      197,997      300,290         2056         2056
37.................................         2057      264,304      354,567       48,358       62,088      202,216      306,209         2057         2057
38.................................         2058      268,625      360,407       48,656       62,459      206,166      311,751         2058         2058
39.................................         2059      272,665      365,868       48,934       62,805      209,860      316,934         2059         2059
40.................................         2060      276,443      370,976       49,197       63,131      213,313      321,779         2060         2060
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Not breakeven.

    Table VII-44 summarizes the breakeven year for the proposed rule
based on the estimated costs and monetized benefits.

    Table VII-44--Summary of the Breakeven Year of the Proposed Rule
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Discount rate                             Year
------------------------------------------------------------------------
At 3 Percent.............................  2029 to 2031.
At 7 Percent.............................  2030 to 2032.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

F. Cost Effectiveness and Positive Net Benefits Analysis

1. Cost Effectiveness
    The cost-effectiveness analysis identifies the model year the
agency estimates the net cost per fatal equivalent is no greater than
the $9.7 million comprehensive cost of a fatality, indicating the point
at which cost of the propose rule is lower than a fatal equivalent. For
this analysis, the agency defines the net cost as the difference
between a given MY cost and the congestion benefits and PDO savings
(i.e., the lifetime savings of these two categories for a given vehicle
MY).
    For each discount rate, the range of fatal equivalents covers those
from the two benefits estimating approaches discussed previously
Section VII.D: Free-rider and no free-rider. The low fatal equivalent
numbers represent the low benefit estimates from the free-rider
approach and the high estimates represent the higher benefit estimates
from the no free-rider approach. Additionally, the cost-related low and
high values represent the two potential cost estimates that result from
utilizing a one-radio or two-radio approach to DSRC implementation
approach.\369\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \369\ The one-DSRC radio consists of one DSRC radio in vehicle
paring with a hybrid (WiFi/Cellular/Satellite) vehicle-to-SCMS
communication. The two DSRC radios in vehicle are paring with DSRC
vehicle-to-SCMS communication.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The agency utilizes the net cost per equivalent life saved to
determine the cost-effectiveness for a given vehicle MY. The net cost
defined in this analysis is the difference between the MY costs and the
savings from reducing property damage and congestion. As described in
Section VII.D.3, fatal equivalents are derived by translating the MAIS
1-5 injuries saved and the PDOVs prevented into fatalities using the
calculated relative fatality ratios found in Table VII-37.
    Table VII-45 and Table VII-46 present the factors used when
determine cost-effectiveness, the net cost per fatal equivalent
discounted at 3 percent and 7 percent, respectively, and when the
agency estimates the proposed rule would become cost-effective. As
shown in the tables, the agency estimates the proposed rule would
become cost effective in MY 2024 to MY 2026 regardless of the discount
rate. Note that the negative MY net cost shown in the tables means that
the MY benefits outweigh its costs.

                                                        Table VII-45--Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
                                                           [at 3 Percent, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      Fatal equivalents           MY net costs           Net cost per fatal          Cost- effective
                                                 ----------------------------------------------------        equivalent        -------------------------
                Year                    Model                                                        --------------------------
                                                      Low          High         Low          High         Low          High         Low          High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1..................................         2021         0.00         0.00    $2,221.39    $2,893.52    $2,221.39    $2,893.52            *            *
2..................................         2022         3.48        67.86     2,958.11     3,963.34        43.59     1,138.99            *            *
3..................................         2023        23.35       208.55     3,592.36     4,965.74        17.23       212.68            *            *
4..................................         2024       104.31       580.04     2,975.53     4,884.16         5.13        46.82         2024            *
5..................................         2025       257.57     1,017.05     2,317.96     4,491.28         2.28        17.44         2025            *
6..................................         2026       586.69     1,774.90     1,208.85     3,970.64         0.68         6.77         2026         2026
7..................................         2027     1,112.42     2,621.45         7.03     3,221.61         0.00         2.90         2027         2027
8..................................         2028     1,606.16     3,090.78      -657.77     2,530.40        -0.21         1.58         2028         2028
9..................................         2029     1,946.18     3,250.93      -896.40     2,042.34        -0.28         1.05         2029         2029
10.................................         2030     2,252.45     3,415.26    -1,101.36     1,645.84        -0.32         0.73         2030         2030
11.................................         2031     2,523.52     3,563.63    -1,301.00     1,280.31        -0.37         0.51         2031         2031
12.................................         2032     2,761.74     3,697.69    -1,487.91       952.38        -0.40         0.34         2032         2032
13.................................         2033     2,847.78     3,975.69    -1,876.58       833.11        -0.47         0.29         2033         2033
14.................................         2034     2,934.41     4,241.63    -2,233.79       731.05        -0.53         0.25         2034         2034
15.................................         2035     3,009.61     4,475.08    -2,526.26       664.36        -0.56         0.22         2035         2035
16.................................         2036     3,074.84     4,678.59    -2,816.23       547.13        -0.60         0.18         2036         2036
17.................................         2037     3,134.46     4,858.86    -3,048.91       459.30        -0.63         0.15         2037         2037
18.................................         2038     3,182.03     5,007.07    -3,242.04       402.76        -0.65         0.13         2038         2038
19.................................         2039     3,224.93     5,139.68    -3,409.01       463.44        -0.66         0.14         2039         2039
20.................................         2040     3,269.38     5,267.60    -3,527.55       387.12        -0.67         0.12         2040         2040
21.................................         2041     3,320.90     5,404.46    -3,692.67       345.44        -0.68         0.10         2041         2041
22.................................         2042     3,224.76     5,283.11    -3,646.00       315.00        -0.69         0.10         2042         2042
23.................................         2043     3,241.75     5,334.51    -3,711.27       294.44        -0.70         0.09         2043         2043
24.................................         2044     3,258.96     5,380.31    -3,768.41       274.41        -0.70         0.08         2044         2044
25.................................         2045     3,275.27     5,423.17    -3,785.48       292.50        -0.70         0.09         2045         2045
26.................................         2046     3,290.63     5,461.25    -3,865.08       242.56        -0.71         0.07         2046         2046
27.................................         2047     3,306.52     5,499.93    -3,909.53       228.66        -0.71         0.07         2047         2047
28.................................         2048     3,319.75     5,536.44    -3,952.52       216.58        -0.71         0.07         2048         2048
29.................................         2049     3,333.27     5,571.05    -3,992.64       204.60        -0.72         0.06         2049         2049
30.................................         2050     3,350.10     5,608.31    -3,984.67       240.58        -0.71         0.07         2050         2050
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The proposed rule would not be cost effective for the MY vehicles since the net cost per fatal equivalent is greater than $9.7M in 2014 dollars.

                                                        Table VII-46--Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
                                                           [at 7 Percent, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     Fatal  equivalents           MY net  costs          Net cost per fatal          Cost- effective
                                                 ----------------------------------------------------        equivalent        -------------------------
                Year                  Model year                                                     --------------------------
                                                      Low          High         Low          High         Low          High         Low          High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1..................................         2021         0.00         0.00    $2,213.68    $2,885.80    $2,213.68    $2,885.80            *            *
2..................................         2022         3.28        51.18     2,969.81     3,952.00        58.02     1,206.56            *            *
3..................................         2023        21.83       159.55     3,645.47     4,952.42        22.85       226.83            *            *
4..................................         2024        96.35       450.18     3,141.76     4,879.71         6.98        50.64         2024            *
5..................................         2025       234.85       795.52     2,612.54     4,507.19         3.28        19.19         2025            *
6..................................         2026       527.59     1,396.62     1,722.09     4,035.73         1.23         7.65         2026         2026
7..................................         2027       989.03     2,077.54       751.28     3,373.91         0.36         3.41         2027         2027
8..................................         2028     1,416.94     2,459.15       208.58     2,771.96         0.08         1.96         2028         2028
9..................................         2029     1,710.25     2,598.90        -2.00     2,347.17         0.00         1.37         2029         2029
10.................................         2030     1,974.86     2,741.45      -177.05     2,006.97        -0.06         1.02         2030         2030
11.................................         2031     2,149.18     2,947.24      -458.15     1,772.63        -0.16         0.82         2031         2031
12.................................         2032     2,233.37     3,227.88      -850.33     1,654.44        -0.26         0.74         2032         2032
13.................................         2033     2,309.61     3,478.57    -1,200.35     1,548.14        -0.35         0.67         2033         2033
14.................................         2034     2,385.57     3,711.72    -1,512.27     1,460.19        -0.41         0.61         2034         2034
15.................................         2035     2,451.89     3,916.19    -1,764.75     1,405.16        -0.45         0.57         2035         2035
16.................................         2036     2,509.12     4,095.07    -2,020.80     1,298.41        -0.49         0.52         2036         2036
17.................................         2037     2,562.08     4,254.99    -2,225.59     1,219.23        -0.52         0.48         2037         2037
18.................................         2038     2,602.73     4,384.79    -2,393.47     1,171.68        -0.55         0.45         2038         2038
19.................................         2039     2,640.12     4,501.23    -2,538.36     1,239.43        -0.56         0.47         2039         2039
20.................................         2040     2,678.06     4,613.37    -2,635.41     1,171.48        -0.57         0.44         2040         2040
21.................................         2041     2,720.95     4,730.53    -2,773.58     1,141.05        -0.59         0.42         2041         2041
22.................................         2042     2,641.60     4,624.69    -2,748.24     1,088.07        -0.59         0.41         2042         2042
23.................................         2043     2,656.70     4,670.32    -2,805.80     1,069.77        -0.60         0.40         2043         2043
24.................................         2044     2,670.51     4,709.04    -2,853.41     1,054.05        -0.61         0.39         2044         2044
25.................................         2045     2,685.53     4,747.17    -2,864.22     1,073.57        -0.60         0.40         2045         2045
26.................................         2046     2,696.56     4,779.45    -2,936.06     1,029.21        -0.61         0.38         2046         2046

27.................................         2047     2,711.29     4,815.03    -2,976.53     1,016.55        -0.62         0.37         2047         2047
28.................................         2048     2,721.94     4,845.29    -3,011.12     1,007.69        -0.62         0.37         2048         2048
29.................................         2049     2,734.33     4,873.87    -3,043.14       996.93        -0.62         0.36         2049         2049
30.................................         2050     2,747.06     4,905.91    -3,028.20     1,038.18        -0.62         0.38         2050         2050
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The proposed rule would not be cost effective for the MY vehicles since the net cost per fatal equivalent is greater than $9.7M in 2014 dollars.

2. Lifetime Net Benefits for a Specified Model Year
    The lifetime net benefits for a specified MY vehicle (i.e., MY net
benefits) is the difference between the monetized MY benefits and the
corresponding MY costs. Table VII-47 and Table VII-48 show the MY net
benefits at a 3 and 7 percent discount rate, respectively. As shown,
for both discount rates, MY 2024 to MY 2026 vehicles would accrue
positive lifetime net benefits. (Due to rounding errors, discrepancy
existed between the monetized MY benefits that were deriving directly
by multiplying $9.7 million by fatal equivalents and those reported in
the tables below.)

                                                              Table VII-47--MY Net Benefits
                                                           [at 3 Percent, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Monetized MY benefits                 MY costs                     MY net benefits
                  Year                      Model year   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021           $0.00           $0.00       $2,221.39       $2,893.52      -$2,893.52      -$2,221.39
2.......................................            2022           33.79          658.99        3,053.02        3,968.08       -3,934.29       -2,394.03
3.......................................            2023          226.72        2,025.12        3,884.01        4,997.52       -4,770.80       -1,858.89
4.......................................            2024        1,012.92        5,632.53        3,786.63        5,026.18       -4,013.26        1,845.90
5.......................................            2025        2,501.20        9,876.22        3,740.01        4,842.01       -2,340.81        6,136.21
6.......................................            2026        5,697.12       17,235.41        3,690.23        4,769.58          927.54       13,545.18
7.......................................            2027       10,802.30       25,455.98        3,671.47        4,736.63        6,065.67       21,784.52
8.......................................            2028       15,596.91       30,013.55        3,662.23        4,718.02       10,878.89       26,351.32
9.......................................            2029       18,898.69       31,568.66        3,646.96        4,693.24       14,205.45       27,921.70
10......................................            2030       21,872.79       33,164.45        3,671.21        4,714.08       17,158.71       29,493.24
11......................................            2031       24,505.02       34,605.22        3,678.46        4,717.95       19,787.07       30,926.76
12......................................            2032       26,818.31       35,906.98        3,678.43        4,714.96       22,103.36       32,228.55
13......................................            2033       27,653.77       38,606.57        3,678.63        4,713.02       22,940.75       34,927.94
14......................................            2034       28,495.06       41,189.00        3,692.47        4,729.11       23,765.95       37,496.53
15......................................            2035       29,225.26       43,456.01        3,725.64        4,764.99       24,460.27       39,730.37
16......................................            2036       29,858.67       45,432.21        3,719.46        4,736.74       25,121.92       41,712.75
17......................................            2037       30,437.71       47,182.69        3,738.10        4,730.26       25,707.44       43,444.60
18......................................            2038       30,899.56       48,621.96        3,751.52        4,738.62       26,160.94       44,870.43
19......................................            2039       31,316.16       49,909.68        3,769.32        4,857.85       26,458.31       46,140.36
20......................................            2040       31,747.87       51,151.88        3,829.01        4,842.19       26,905.68       47,322.87
21......................................            2041       32,248.10       52,480.81        3,854.63        4,870.78       27,377.32       48,626.18
22......................................            2042       31,314.49       51,302.48        3,731.52        4,709.39       26,605.10       47,570.96
23......................................            2043       31,479.52       51,801.61        3,737.75        4,712.04       26,767.49       48,063.86
24......................................            2044       31,646.62       52,246.36        3,744.33        4,715.51       26,931.12       48,502.03
25......................................            2045       31,805.05       52,662.57        3,786.93        4,755.86       27,049.18       48,875.65
26......................................            2046       31,954.16       53,032.36        3,760.35        4,726.88       27,227.28       49,272.01
27......................................            2047       32,108.44       53,407.94        3,769.78        4,734.65       27,373.79       49,638.16
28......................................            2048       32,236.99       53,762.45        3,777.66        4,740.64       27,496.35       49,984.79
29......................................            2049       32,368.22       54,098.58        3,785.78        4,747.09       27,621.14       50,312.80
30......................................            2050       32,531.65       54,460.39        3,845.70        4,806.01       27,725.64       50,614.69
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                              Table VII-48 MY Net Benefits
                                                           [at 7 Percent, 2014 $ in millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               Monetized MY benefits               Vehicle costs                  MY net benefits
                  Year                      Model year   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Low            High             Low            High             Low            High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................            2021           $0.00           $0.00       $2,213.68       $2,885.80      -$2,885.80      -$2,213.68
2.......................................            2022           31.80          497.03        3,041.41        3,956.46       -3,924.66       -2,544.37
3.......................................            2023          212.00        1,549.29        3,868.62        4,982.14       -4,770.14       -2,319.34
4.......................................            2024          935.65        4,371.50        3,771.35        5,010.90       -4,075.25          600.15
5.......................................            2025        2,280.53        7,725.00        3,724.97        4,826.97       -2,546.44        4,000.03

6.......................................            2026        5,123.26       13,562.13        3,674.84        4,754.19          369.08        9,887.29
7.......................................            2027        9,604.09       20,174.30        3,655.69        4,720.85        4,883.24       16,518.61
8.......................................            2028       13,759.41       23,879.93        3,646.03        4,701.83        9,057.59       20,233.89
9.......................................            2029       16,607.61       25,236.98        3,630.38        4,676.66       11,930.95       21,606.59
10......................................            2030       19,177.23       26,621.24        3,654.18        4,697.04       14,480.18       22,967.06
11......................................            2031       20,869.91       28,619.59        3,661.00        4,700.48       16,169.42       24,958.59
12......................................            2032       21,687.48       31,344.84        3,660.57        4,697.09       16,990.38       27,684.27
13......................................            2033       22,427.83       33,779.21        3,660.38        4,694.77       17,733.06       30,118.83
14......................................            2034       23,165.40       36,043.23        3,673.77        4,710.41       18,455.00       32,369.46
15......................................            2035       23,809.50       38,028.75        3,706.49        4,745.84       19,063.67       34,322.26
16......................................            2036       24,365.23       39,765.77        3,699.88        4,717.16       19,648.07       36,065.89
17......................................            2037       24,879.46       41,318.79        3,718.05        4,710.22       20,169.24       37,600.74
18......................................            2038       25,274.25       42,579.22        3,731.05        4,718.15       20,556.11       38,848.18
19......................................            2039       25,637.28       43,709.92        3,748.39        4,836.91       20,800.36       39,961.54
20......................................            2040       26,005.75       44,798.85        3,807.57        4,820.75       21,185.00       40,991.28
21......................................            2041       26,422.20       45,936.55        3,832.67        4,848.82       21,573.37       42,103.88
22......................................            2042       25,651.68       44,908.74        3,709.90        4,687.77       20,963.91       41,198.84
23......................................            2043       25,798.30       45,351.86        3,715.80        4,690.09       21,108.20       41,636.06
24......................................            2044       25,932.43       45,727.85        3,722.05        4,693.23       21,239.19       42,005.80
25......................................            2045       26,078.29       46,098.16        3,764.31        4,733.25       21,345.04       42,333.85
26......................................            2046       26,185.33       46,411.61        3,737.41        4,703.94       21,481.39       42,674.20
27......................................            2047       26,328.44       46,757.14        3,746.51        4,711.38       21,617.06       43,010.63
28......................................            2048       26,431.78       47,050.95        3,754.07        4,717.05       21,714.73       43,296.87
29......................................            2049       26,552.13       47,328.48        3,761.88        4,723.19       21,828.94       43,566.60
30......................................            2050       26,675.71       47,639.58        3,821.49        4,781.80       21,893.91       43,818.10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Summary
    Table VII-49 summarizes the MY vehicles that would be cost-
effective.

    Table VII-49--Summary of the MY Would Be Cost-Effective and Have
                          Positive Net Benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Discount rate              Cost-effective       Net benefits
------------------------------------------------------------------------
At 3 Percent...................  2024 to 2026.......  2024 to 2026.
At 7 Percent...................  2024 to 2026.......  2024 to 2026.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

G. Uncertainty Analysis

    In order to account for the inherent uncertainty in the assumptions
underlying this cost-benefit analysis, the agency also conducted
extensive uncertainty analysis to illustrate the variation in the
rule's benefits and costs associated with different assumptions about
the future number of accidents that could be prevented, the assumed
adoption rates and estimated effectiveness of the two safety
applications, and our assumptions about the costs of providing V2V
communications capability. This analysis showed that the proposed rule
would reach its breakeven year between 2030 and 2032 with 90 percent
certainty, with even the most conservative scenario showing that the
breakeven year would be five to six years later than the previously
estimated years (2029-2032). Considering these same sources of
uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness and net benefits analyses showed
that the proposed rule would become cost-effective and would accrue
positive net benefits between MY 2024 and MY 2027 with 90 percent
certainty. This indicates that it is very likely to become cost-
effectiveness at most one MY later than estimated in the primary
analysis, and that even under the most conservative scenario, this
would occur two to three model years later than the initial estimate of
2024-2026.

H. Estimated Costs and Benefits of V2V Alternatives

    In the interest of ensuring the agency's proposed approach to
regulating V2V technology is both fully informed and backed by a
comprehensive regulatory analysis, the agency considered two potential
alternative approaches for V2V deployment. The first alternative
(Alternative 1) explores the concept going beyond this proposal's
mandate for only the V2V communications equipment (radio), by also
including a mandate for two safety warning applications: Intersection
movement assist (IMA) and left turn across path (LTA). Alternative 2 is
an ``if-equipped'' approach that would provide requirements for V2V
communication as specified in this proposed rule but only applicable if
the equipment is used in the vehicle fleet. These two alternatives
represent a significant range of potential agency actions beyond the
baseline and the proposal.
    Alternative 1 shares the same three-year phase-in schedule (50%-
75%-100%) for V2V equipment as the proposed rule but delays the same
phase in rate by one year delay for safety application implementation
(0%-50%-75%-100%). Alternative 2 \370\ assumes that a V2V
implementation would be both slower and most likely stay flat
thereafter versus the mandatory implementation of the proposed rule,
never reaching all or even a significant percentage of the fleet. The
agency believes this results from the cost of installing V2V on any
particular vehicle is not dependent on adoption by others, while the
benefits are. With these considerations, the agency assumes that a 5
percent DSRC adoption for MY 2021 vehicles and a 5 percent increase for
the subsequent years until plateauing at 25 percent in MY 2025 and
indefinitely This assumption is broadly based upon adoption rates of
other advanced technologies in the absence of a mandate. Alternative 2
has the same safety application implementation schedule as the proposed
rule as implementation would be voluntary for both regulatory options.
Table VII-50

and Table VII-51 summarize the DSRC and safety application adoptions
rates for the proposed rule and these two alternatives.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \370\ The agency believes that V2V would not occur in the
absence of any government action and has, therefore, not estimated a
``no action'' alternative. We request comment on this assumption.

                                                      Table VII-50--DSRC Adoption Rates in Percent
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Model year
             Regulation alternatives             -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027        2028+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Proposed Rule Mandating DSRC................           50           75          100          100          100          100          100          100
Alternative 1 Mandating DSRC and Apps...........           50           75          100          100          100          100          100          100
Alternative 2 If-Equipped.......................            5           10           15           20           25           25           25           25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                      Table VII-51--App Adoption Rates * in Percent
                                                               [of DSRC-equipped vehicles]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                Model year
             Regulation alternatives             -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      2021         2022         2023         2024         2025         2026         2027        2028+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Proposed Rule Mandating DSRC................            0            5           10           25           40           65           90          100
Alternative 1 Mandating DSRC and Apps...........           50           75          100          100          100          100          100          100
Alternative 2 If-Equipped.......................            0            5           10           15           20           25           25           25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Because of the aggressive app adoption, Alternative 1 would be
expected to accrue more annual benefits than the proposed rule before
the entire on-road fleet has been equipped with V2V (i.e., reaching the
maximum benefits). Alternative 1 would also reach the same maximum
annual benefits as the proposed rule, but would do so four years
earlier. This alternative would achieve these benefits without
significant cost increase, since the incremental cost of adding two
apps over the DSRC radios is very small (less than 0.1 percent of the
vehicle technology cost). The annual costs of this alternative would
range from $2.2 to $5.0 billion.
    Alternative 2 would accrue up to 6 percent of the maximum annual
benefits of the proposed rule due to lower DSRC and app adoption rates.
This alternative also has relatively lower annual costs than that of
the proposed rule, since far fewer vehicles would be installed with
DSRC. The annual cost of this alternative would range from $254 million
to $1.3 billion, with an average annual cost about 26 percent of the
cost of the proposed rule.
    Alternative 1 would breakeven between 2027 and 2030 (combining 3
and 7 percent discount rates), two years ahead of the proposed rule.
The first MY vehicles that would be cost-effective and that would
accrue positive net benefits is expected to be between MY 2024 and MY
2026, also two years earlier than the proposed rule. In contrast,
Alternative 2 would breakeven between 2037 and 2055, eight to twenty-
three years behind the proposed rule. The first MY vehicles that would
be cost-effective under Alternative 2 is expected to be between MY 2026
and MY 2031, two to five years later than the proposed rule. The first
MY vehicles that would accrue positive net benefits is between MY 2026
and MY 2033, two to seven years later than the proposed rule. Table
VII-52 and Table VII-53 compares these visually at three and seven
percent discount rates.

              Table VII-52--Comparison of Breakeven and Cost-Effective Measures--3 Percent Discount
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Cost-benefit measures (3 percent   Alternative 1 mandating       The proposed rule         Alternative 2 if-
            discount)                 DSRC radios and apps       mandating DSRC only            equipped
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Breakeven (CY)...................  2027 to 2029.............  2029 to 2031............  2037 to 2045.
Cost-Effectiveness (MY)..........  2022 to 2024.............  2024 to 2026............  2026 to 2030.
Positive Net Benefits (MY).......  2022 to 2024.............  2024 to 2026............  2026 to 2031.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Table VII-53--Comparison of Breakeven and Cost-Effective Measures--7 Percent Discount
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Cost-benefit measures (7 percent   Alternative 1 mandating       The proposed rule         Alternative 2 if-
            discount)                 DSRC radios and apps       mandating DSRC only            equipped
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Breakeven (CY)...................  2027 to 2030.............  2030 to 2032............  2039 to 2055.
Cost-Effectiveness (MY)..........  2022 to 2024.............  2024 to 2026............  2027 to 2031.
Positive Net Benefits (MY).......  2022 to 2024.............  2024 to 2026............  2027 to 2033.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Although mandating safety applications like IMA and LTA along with
the V2V communication capability (i.e., DSRC) would result in
significant safety benefits sooner, the agency is not proposing to
mandate these applications as part of this proposal, because the agency
currently does not have sufficient data to proceed with a mandate at
this time. As explained above, further research for establishing
practicable and objective test procedures and performance requirements
for the applications will likely need to be conducted prior to mandate
to avoid potential unintended consequences which could have broader
negative effects, such as false warnings causing consumers to dismiss
the technology, on the development and deployment of V2V-based
applications.
    Additional details on the analysis of Alternative 1 and Alternative
2 can be found in the PRIA accompanying this proposal rule.
    We request comment on the alternative cost and benefits analysis
including the approach for the alternative? Do commenters agree with
the costs assumptions used for developing and implementing safety
applications? Why or why not? Please provide supporting data. Do
commenters agree with our assessment that mandating applications would
result in accruing benefits sooner? Do commenters have estimates for
the potential costs that an earlier mandate (like, consumer rejection
of tech, opportunity cost, etc.) that are not quantified or are not
quantifiable but hold great importance? Do commenters have any
information that could assist the agency in learning more about these
and any other applications that may be useful in a potential agency
decision to mandate V2V-enabled safety applications.

VIII. Proposed Implementation Timing

    This section of the NPRM describes the proposed timing for
implementing the requirements for new vehicles and aftermarket devices,
and also describes our expectations of the availability of the national
SCMS.

A. New Vehicles

    The agency proposes the following lead time and phase-in period for
all new light vehicles sold in the U.S. to comply with this proposed
rule.
1. Lead Time
    We are proposing two years of lead time, with the two years
starting on Sept. 1 following issuance of a final rule to this
proposal. This approach would allow a minimum of two full calendars of
lead time. New light vehicles manufactured for sale in the U.S. would
not be required to comply until that time. NHTSA believes that a lead
time period is necessary to allow for the development and production of
automotive-grade V2V communications devices by the automotive supplier
industry. While a quantity of DSRC devices were developed for the
Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, MI, these were mostly
prototype aftermarket devices that were not designed to directly
integrate into the vehicle's controller area network. Furthermore, the
expected lifespan of these devices is only 3 to 5 years instead of the
lifespan of a typical vehicle. Those devices, or ones based on their
design, would therefore not be appropriate for meeting this proposed
standard. At the time of issuance of this NPRM, we have limited
information regarding the capability of automotive suppliers to produce
the quantities of DSRC devices to equip all new light vehicles sold in
the U.S. annually (approximately 15 million \371\). However, the agency
was able to confirm, confidentially, with at least one supplier while
gathering information for this proposal that request for quotations
were being issued by original equipment manufacturers for V2V capable
devices. In addition, the ITSA market study commissioned by the agency
indicated the industry would need approximately 18 months to two years
to ``ramp-up' V2V devices for mass production, considering the device
itself and the perceived integration as original equipment are less
complex than other technologies such as ESC or powertrain components.
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    \371\ See the 2015 EIA Annual Energy Outlook, available at
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/tables_ref.cfm.
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    Depending on when the final rule establishing DSRC FMVSS is issued,
the agency concurs with the ITSA market study and its own regulatory
experience that automotive suppliers with need some lead time to
generate production-level devices in the quantities that would be
required annually by automotive OEMs.
    Lead time also allows the automotive OEMs time to integrate V2V
communications devices into their product lines, as these devices are
not currently part of any production vehicles sold in the U.S. This
will minimize costs by allowing OEMs to incorporate the new technology
into product cycle planning. Many OEMs conduct ``refreshes'' (i.e.
minor cosmetic changes, new features, quality fixes, etc.) on their
product lines in a staggered fashion approximately three to four years
after a major redesign.
    For these reasons, the agency is proposing a two year lead time
after issuance of the final rule before manufacturers are required to
begin complying with the requirements. Two years was chosen because it
is approximately half the amount of time between average vehicle
refreshes, allowing OEMs to integrate V2V technology into their
existing product cycles. This will minimize the cost burden on the OEMs
by not requiring concurrent redesigns of all production lines at the
same time. We seek comment on whether this amount of lead time is
necessary and appropriate. If commenters believe that additional lead
time is needed, or that less lead time is needed, we ask that they
support their comments as best as possible with specific information as
to why.
2. Phase-In Period
    While the agency understands that design changes may be required in
order to integrate V2V communications devices into all light vehicles,
since V2V technology is a cooperative system, the potential benefits
associated with V2V devices depend on a high penetration rate of
equipped vehicles. As such, the agency proposes an aggressive phase-in
schedule after the conclusion of the lead time period. In addition to
the proposed two years of lead time, NHTSA proposes a three year phase-
in period. The three year phase-in schedule, which starts immediately
after the conclusion of the lead time, would be as follows:

 End of Year 1--50% of all new light vehicles must comply with
the rule
 End of Year 2--75% of all new light vehicles must comply with
the rule
 End of Year 3--100% of all new light vehicles must comply with
the rule

    This proposed schedule allows a total of five years until all new
vehicles would be required to comply with the final rule. This is
consistent with a DOT-sponsored market study \372\ conducted by ITS
America, in which interviews were conducted with a wide range of V2V
stakeholders including:

    \372\ Impact of Light Vehicle Rule on Consumer/Aftermarket
Adoption- Dedicated Short Range Communications Market Study,
Intelligent Transportation Society of America, FHWA-JPO-17-487,
available at http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/60000/60500/60535/FHWA-JPO-17-487_Final_.pdf. (last accessed Dec 12, 2016).
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 Automotive OEMs
 Tier 1 Suppliers
 Tier 2 Suppliers
 Automotive Insurance Companies
 Component Manufacturers
 System Integrators and Service Providers

 Roadside Infrastructure Operators and Manufacturers

    The consensus from that research was that OEMs and suppliers will
need approximately three to five years after the final rule in order
for all new vehicles to comply with the regulation.\373\ Therefore, the
agency believes that this comprehensive input from the industry
provides a sufficient justification for the lead time and phase-in
period. See Table VIII-1 for the full schedule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \373\ Vehicle to Vehicle Crash Avoidance Safety Technology
Public Acceptance Final Report--FHWA-JPO-17-491 See Docket No.
NHTSA-2016-0126.
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    Finally, depending on the number of product lines and the timing of
their redesigns, it may be economically advantageous for some OEMs to
comply with the regulation prior to the proposed schedule. These OEMs
will be able to capitalize on arriving to market earlier than their
competitors, and the customers of these OEMs will realize safety,
mobility, and environmental benefits earlier than others. As such, the
agency does not envision granting credits for early compliance with
this schedule as there are sufficient incentives already in place for
OEMs to consider early compliance.

         Table VIII-1--Proposed Lead Time and Phase-In Schedule
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Percentage of
                       Time period                           vehicles
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 year after final rule.................................               0
2 years after final rule................................               0
3 years after final rule................................              50
4 years after final rule................................              75
5 years after final rule................................             100
------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Aftermarket

    Based on market study research,\374\ the agency believes that the
aftermarket device industry will move quickly (within one year) after
the issuance of the final rule to develop and market V2V communications
devices that support safety applications as well as mobility,
environmental, and other applications. While these aftermarket devices
will support V2V, they will also enable more fee-based services such as
mobility applications and data and communications suites to be marketed
to device owners. While safety is important to consumers, the other
applications offered by these devices may be potentially more
attractive to the consumer. The agency believes that there will be a
market for these aftermarket devices; however, it will be driven by the
totality of features offered by these devices that directly impact the
consumers' time spent in their vehicles, as well as by device cost.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \374\ ``Impact of Light Vehicle Rule on Consumer/Aftermarket
Adoption--Dedicated Short Range Communications Market Study'', ITS
America Research, 2015, pp 21.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The agency believes aftermarket device suppliers would need to
react to a newly issued FMVSS to capitalize on the large volume of
light vehicles that will not be equipped with V2V communications
devices. The prevailing view is the market for such aftermarket devices
will exist only during the transition period between the issuance of
the final rule and the turnover of the entire fleet. NHTSA typically
assumes that the maximum life span of a light vehicle is 39 years. We
would anticipate that the vast majority of the light vehicle fleet in
the U.S. will be completely replaced in less than 20 years, and they
will be capable of V2V communications. This gives the aftermarket
device industry a relatively small window of time to sell aftermarket
devices to light vehicles without V2V communications capabilities
installed by the OEMs.
    Additionally, based on research from the Safety Pilot Model
Deployment and additional market research, we believe the aftermarket
industry is capable of producing V2V communications devices that can
meet the proposed performance requirements and could be installed by a
qualified installer, if needed. These aftermarket devices do not need
to be connected to the vehicle controller area network vehicle bus;
however, an external GPS and V2V antenna will need to be installed as
well as a connection to the in-vehicle power. Therefore, the agency
expects that specially-trained installers should be able to install
these devices in a similar manner to other devices such OnStar FMV,
which is installed at major electronics retailers as well as at car
dealerships. Therefore, these devices could deploy faster than OEM
integrated as they do not require an OEM to integrate them into their
vehicle build and testing processes. For these reasons, the agency
believes it is technically possible that these devices could be
available on the market within one to two years after this proposed
FMVSS is finalized.
    Based on this, the agency anticipates that aftermarket devices will
be available for purchase and installation during the lead time period
and prior to the start of the first year of the phase-in period (i.e.
less than two years after the final rule is issued).
    The agency seeks comment on these lead time projections for both
OEM and aftermarket devices. Specifically, do commenters believe the
proposed lead times are reasonable? If so, why? If not, why? What type
of adjustments, if any, should agency make? Do commenters agree with
the agency's perspective on a ``window of opportunity'' for aftermarket
devices? If so, why? If not, why? Please provide any supporting data
for your response.

IX. Public Participation

A. How do I prepare and submit comments?

    Your comments must be written and in English. To ensure that your
comments are correctly filed in the Docket, please include the Docket
Number NHTSA-2016-0126 in your comments. Your comments must not be more
than 15 pages long.\375\ NHTSA established this limit to encourage you
to write your primary comments in a concise fashion. However, you may
attach necessary additional documents to your comments, and there is no
limit on the length of the attachments. If you are submitting comments
electronically as a PDF (Adobe) file, we ask that you scan the
documents submitted using the Optical Character Recognition (OCR)
process,\376\ thus allowing the agency to search and copy certain
portions of your submissions in order to better evaluate them. Please
note that pursuant to the Data Quality Act, in order for the
substantive data to be relied upon and used by the agency, it must meet
the information quality standards set forth in the OMB and Department
of Transportation (DOT) Information Dissemination Quality guidelines.
Accordingly, we encourage you to consult the guidelines in preparing
your comments. OMB's guidelines may be accessed at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg_reproducible (last accessed Dec. 7,
2016). DOT's guidelines may be accessed at http://www.dot.gov/regulations/dot-information-dissemination-quality-guidelines (last
accessed Dec. 7, 2016).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \375\ See 49 CFR 553.21.
    \376\ Optical character recognition (OCR) is the process of
converting an image of text, such as a scanned paper document or
electronic fax file, into computer-editable text.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Tips for Preparing Your Comments

    When submitting comments, please remember to:
     Identify the rulemaking by docket number and other
identifying information (subject heading, Federal Register date and
page number).
     Explain why you agree or disagree, suggest alternatives,
and substitute language for your requested changes.

     Describe any assumptions and provide any technical
information and/or data that you used.
     If you estimate potential costs or burdens, explain how
you arrived at your estimate in sufficient detail to allow for it to be
reproduced.
     Provide specific examples to illustrate your concerns, and
suggest alternatives.
     Explain your views as clearly as possible, avoiding the
use of profanity or personal threats.
     Make sure to submit your comments by the comment period
deadline identified in the DATES section above.

C. How can I be sure that my comments were received?

    If you submit your comments by mail and wish Docket Management to
notify you upon its receipt of your comments, enclose a self-addressed,
stamped postcard in the envelope containing your comments. Upon
receiving your comments, Docket Management will return the postcard by
mail.
    If you submit your comments through www.regulations.gov, you can
find very useful information about how to confirm that your comments
were successfully received and uploaded under the ``Help'' link on the
top right of the home page, under ``FAQs.''

D. How do I submit confidential business information?

    If you wish to submit any information under a claim of
confidentiality, you should submit three copies of your complete
submission, including the information you claim to be confidential
business information, to the Chief Counsel, NHTSA, at the address given
above under FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT. When you send a comment
containing confidential business information, you should include a
cover letter setting forth the information specified in our
confidential business information regulation.\377\
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    \377\ See 49 CFR part 512.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition, you should submit a copy from which you have deleted
the claimed confidential business information to the Docket by one of
the methods set forth above.

E. Will NHTSA consider late comments?

    NHTSA will consider all comments received before midnight E.S.T. on
the comment closing date indicated above under DATES. To the extent
practicable, we will also consider comments received after that date.
Additionally, if interested persons believe that any information that
NHTSA may place in the docket after the issuance of the NPRM affects
their comments, they may submit comments after the closing date
concerning how NHTSA should consider that information for the final
rule. If a comment is received too late for us to practicably consider
in developing a final rule, we will consider that comment as an
informal suggestion for future rulemaking action.

F. How can I read the comments submitted by other people?

    You may read the materials placed in the docket for this document
(e.g., the comments submitted in response to this document by other
interested persons) at any time by going to http://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the online instructions for accessing the docket.
    You may also read the materials at the DOT Docket Management
Facility by going to the street address given above under ADDRESSES.

X. Regulatory Notices and Analyses

A. Executive Order 12866, Executive Order 13563, and DOT Regulatory
Policies and Procedures

    Executive Order 12866, ``Regulatory Planning and Review'' (58 FR
51735, Oct. 4, 1993), as amended by Executive Order 13563, ``Improving
Regulation and Regulatory Review'' (76 FR 3821, Jan. 21, 2011),
provides for making determinations whether a regulatory action is
``significant'' and therefore subject to OMB review and to the
requirements of the Executive Order. The Order defines a ``significant
regulatory action'' as one that is likely to result in a rule that may:
     Have an annual effect on the economy of $100 million or
more or adversely affect in a material way the economy, a sector of the
economy, productivity, competition, jobs, the environment, public
health or safety, or State, local, or Tribal governments or
communities;
     Create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with
an action taken or planned by another agency;
     Materially alter the budgetary impact of entitlements,
grants, user fees, or loan programs or the rights and obligations of
recipients thereof; or
     Raise novel legal or policy issues arising out of legal
mandates, the President's priorities, or the principles set forth in
the Executive Order.
    The rulemaking proposed in this NPRM will be economically
significant if adopted. Accordingly, OMB reviewed it under Executive
Order 12866. The rule, if adopted, would also be significant within the
meaning of the Department of Transportation's Regulatory Policies and
Procedures.\378\
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    \378\ DOT Order 2100.5, ``Regulatory Policies and Procedures,''
available at http://www.dot.gov/regulations/rulemaking-requirements
(last accessed Mar. 16, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The benefits and costs of this proposal are described above in
Section VII of this preamble. Because the proposed rule would, if
adopted, be economically significant under both the Department of
Transportation's procedures and OMB guidelines, the agency has prepared
a Preliminary Regulatory Impact Analysis (PRIA) and placed it in the
docket and on the agency's Web site. Further, pursuant to Circular A-4,
we have prepared a formal probabilistic uncertainty analysis for this
proposal.\379\ The circular requires such an analysis for complex rules
where there are large, multiple uncertainties whose analysis raises
technical challenges or where effects cascade and where the impacts of
the rule exceed $1 billion. This proposal meets these criteria on all
counts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \379\ See Chapter 12 of the PRIA accompanying this NPRM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Regulatory Flexibility Act

    Pursuant to the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.),
as amended by the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act
(SBREFA) of 1996, whenever an agency is required to publish a notice of
rulemaking for any proposed or final rule, it must prepare and make
available for public comment a regulatory flexibility analysis that
describes the effect of the rule on small entities (i.e., small
businesses, small organizations, and small governmental jurisdictions).
The Small Business Administration's regulations at 13 CFR part 121
define a small business, in part, as a business entity ``which operates
primarily within the United States.'' (13 CFR 121.105(a)). No
regulatory flexibility analysis is required if the head of an agency
certifies the rule will not have a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities. SBREFA amended the Regulatory
Flexibility Act to require Federal agencies to provide a statement of
the factual basis for certifying that a rule will not have a
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
    NHTSA has considered the effects of this proposed rule under the
Regulatory Flexibility Act. I certify that this proposed rule will not
have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of small
entities. The following is NHTSA's statement providing the

factual basis for the certification (5 U.S.C. 605(b)).\380\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \380\ See also Chapter 13 of the PRIA accompanying this NPRM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If adopted, the proposal would directly affect twenty large single
stage motor vehicle manufacturers.\381\ None of these would qualify as
a small business, however. Based on our preliminary assessment, the
proposal would also affect 3 entities that fit the Small Business
Administration's criteria for a small business (Panoz, Saleen, and
Shelby). According to the Small Business Administration's small