-0.08
                                                                         0.0283
                                                                            $13
                                                                             28
                                                                            153
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0325
                                                                            $15
                                                                            153
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0183
                                                                             $8
                                                                           2136
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0284
                                                                            $13
                                                                             29
                                                                            154
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0327
                                                                            $15
                                                                            154
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0184
                                                                             $8
                                                                           2150
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0286
                                                                            $13
                                                                             30
                                                                            153
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0319
                                                                            $51
                                                                            153
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0179
                                                                            $28
                                                                           2136
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0278
                                                                            $44
                                                                             31
                                                                            145
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0303
                                                                            $48
                                                                            145
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0170
                                                                            $27
                                                                           2029
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0264
                                                                            $42
                                                                             32
                                                                            141
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0294
                                                                            $47
                                                                            141
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0165
                                                                            $26
                                                                           1968
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0256
                                                                            $41
                                                                             33
                                                                            139
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0289
                                                                            $46
                                                                            139
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0163
                                                                            $26
                                                                           1936
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0252
                                                                            $40
                                                                             34
                                                                            135
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0281
                                                                            $45
                                                                            135
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0158
                                                                            $25
                                                                           1883
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0245
                                                                            $39
                                                                             35
                                                                            138
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0176
                                                                            $31
                                                                            138
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0099
                                                                            $18
                                                                           1931
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0153
                                                                            $27
                                                                             36
                                                                            134
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0170
                                                                            $30
                                                                            134
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0096
                                                                            $17
                                                                           1872
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0149
                                                                            $26
                                                                             37
                                                                            137
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0174
                                                                            $31
                                                                            137
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0098
                                                                            $17
                                                                           1913
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0152
                                                                            $27
                                                                             38
                                                                            143
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0182
                                                                            $32
                                                                            143
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0103
                                                                            $18
                                                                           2002
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0159
                                                                            $28
                                                                             39
                                                                            151
                                                                          28.41
                                                                          27.11
                                                                          -1.30
                                                                         0.0192
                                                                            $34
                                                                            151
                                                                          20.84
                                                                          20.11
                                                                          -0.73
                                                                         0.0108
                                                                            $19
                                                                           2110
                                                                          25.97
                                                                          25.89
                                                                          -0.08
                                                                         0.0168
                                                                            $30

Table 17: Upper and Lower bound benefits for reduced fertility effects using three housing profiles

                             Upper  Bound Estimate

                             Lower  Bound Estimate

Year
                                New Mobile Home
                            1-Year Old Mobile Home
                             New SF Detached Home
                                   Total WTP
                             Total Discounted WTP
                                New Mobile Home
                            1-Year Old Mobile Home
                             New SF Detached Home
                                   Total WTP
                             Total Discounted WTP

                                                                        $16,538
                                                                         $9,003
                                                                        $14,429
                                                                        $39,970
                                                                        $26,461
                                                                        $14,272
                                                                         $7,901
                                                                        $12,450
                                                                        $34,623
                                                                        $21,779
                                                                              0
                                                                           $533

                                                                           $465
                                                                           $999
                                                                           $999
                                                                           $226

                                                                           $197
                                                                           $422
                                                                           $422
                                                                              1
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,261
                                                                           $252
                                                                           $141
                                                                           $219
                                                                           $612
                                                                           $595
                                                                              2
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,224
                                                                           $277
                                                                           $156
                                                                           $242
                                                                           $674
                                                                           $635
                                                                              3
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,189
                                                                           $302
                                                                           $170
                                                                           $263
                                                                           $734
                                                                           $672
                                                                              4
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,154
                                                                           $317
                                                                           $178
                                                                           $284
                                                                           $779
                                                                           $692
                                                                              5
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,121
                                                                           $349
                                                                           $196
                                                                           $304
                                                                           $850
                                                                           $733
                                                                              6
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,088
                                                                           $372
                                                                           $209
                                                                           $324
                                                                           $905
                                                                           $758
                                                                              7
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,056
                                                                           $393
                                                                           $221
                                                                           $343
                                                                           $958
                                                                           $779
                                                                              8
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                         $1,025
                                                                           $415
                                                                           $233
                                                                           $362
                                                                         $1,010
                                                                           $797
                                                                              9
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $996
                                                                           $446
                                                                           $251
                                                                           $380
                                                                         $1,077
                                                                           $826
                                                                             10
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $967
                                                                           $455
                                                                           $256
                                                                           $397
                                                                         $1,107
                                                                           $824
                                                                             11
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $938
                                                                           $472
                                                                           $265
                                                                           $412
                                                                         $1,149
                                                                           $830
                                                                             12
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $911
                                                                           $487
                                                                           $274
                                                                           $425
                                                                         $1,185
                                                                           $831
                                                                             13
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $885
                                                                           $499
                                                                           $281
                                                                           $436
                                                                         $1,215
                                                                           $828
                                                                             14
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $859
                                                                           $509
                                                                           $286
                                                                           $444
                                                                         $1,240
                                                                           $820
                                                                             15
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $834
                                                                           $517
                                                                           $291
                                                                           $451
                                                                         $1,259
                                                                           $808
                                                                             16
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $810
                                                                           $524
                                                                           $295
                                                                           $457
                                                                         $1,275
                                                                           $795
                                                                             17
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $786
                                                                           $528
                                                                           $297
                                                                           $461
                                                                         $1,287
                                                                           $779
                                                                             18
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $763
                                                                           $532
                                                                           $299
                                                                           $464
                                                                         $1,295
                                                                           $761
                                                                             19
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $741
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $741
                                                                             20
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $719
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $719
                                                                             21
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $698
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $698
                                                                             22
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $678
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $678
                                                                             23
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $658
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $658
                                                                             24
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $639
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $639
                                                                             25
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $620
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $620
                                                                             26
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $602
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $602
                                                                             27
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $585
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $585
                                                                             28
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $568
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $568
                                                                             29
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $551
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $551
                                                                             30
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $535
                                                                           $533
                                                                           $300
                                                                           $465
                                                                         $1,299
                                                                           $535

3.4.4 Discussion of uncertainties
As with the previous endpoints, this example assumes that the population is constant and that the future distribution across housing types is exactly the same as the present distribution. Correcting for trends in population and housing could be done in the same fashion as for the other endpoints.
The willingness to pay estimates above reflects the positive value that women who have trouble conceiving would obtain by not suffering this difficulty. However, it should be pointed out that there is probably a much smaller opposite effect associated with an increase in pregnancy by women who do not want to become pregnant. A complete analysis would incorporate this opposite effect, but is much more difficult and controversial to estimate and value.
The equation for probability of having trouble conceiving is used to produce an estimate of the number of women who whose time to pregnancy will exceed 12 months. The valuation treated this estimate as equal to the number of women who seek fertility treatment. This might be justified as an upper bound estimate, but there are certainly women to have trouble becoming pregnant and do not seek fertility treatment. This is not reflected in this analysis.
The willingness to pay values are based on the average cost of obtaining fertility services. While this is not the theoretically correct value to use for monetization, it is a reasonable estimate if most fertility treatment costs are paid for out-of-pocket by the patients rather than by insurance.  In actually paying the cost, the patient reveals that the treatments is worth at least as much as she paid.  The maximum willingness to pay, however, would be expected to be greater than these costs because many consumers receive more utility from service than they pay for it. Note that this does not take into account any utility or disutility of treatments.  This suggests using cost-of-illness will produce an underestimate.
On the other hand, these values are being applied to all women who are exposed to formaldehyde, but not all of the women whose fertility is affected will pay the market prices for the treatments.  In other words, we have an estimate of the willingness to pay for the women who choose to undergo these treatments. However, we do not have an estimate of the willingness to pay for the women whose fertility is affected but choose not to undertake the treatment. Their values are likely to be positive, but they are less than the costs.  For example, it may be that women with lower household incomes are less likely to pay for treatments at the going prices.  In this sense, the estimate of fertility benefits using the average cost of obtaining fertility service may be biased upward.
Also, all of the women in the Taskanen study whose pregnancies were delayed ultimately had successful pregnancies.  The "health endpoint" being modeled is therefore delayed fertility, not infertility.  If women would be willing to pay more to increase the chance of getting pregnant than they would to decrease the time to pregnancy then the cost-of-illness estimates based on a successful pregnancy used here would overstate the true willingness to pay.
The willingness to pay for reduced time to conceive could, theoretically, be estimated with a stated preference survey, but this would require women to place an ex-ante value on their willingness to pay to undergo various types of fertility treatment, each with an uncertain outcome. Since the women producing this ex-ante value will likely have had little or no experience with the various fertility treatments, such a study would require extensive pre-testing to assure that the women understand the commodity.
There are also reasons to believe that the cost of treatment may not even reflect the correct endpoint. For example, women are willing to pay to reduced time to conceive but, at the same time, are reluctant to undergo fertility treatment. Furthermore, the cycle-based treatments described here may not even be the appropriate treatment to reduce delayed fertility associated with formaldehyde exposure.
Finally, the values reflect that ages reported in the Taskinen (1999) study, ages 20-40. However, women older than age 40 obtain fertility treatment. The CDC (2005) study that was used to produce probabilities for the 20-40 age group reports 19.2% of the women studied who were age 40 to 44 had obtained some type of infertility treatment, with 8.4% obtaining ovulation drugs, 2.6% undergoing artificial insemination, and 0.7% utilitizing assisted reproductive technology (assumed to be IVF). The value of reduced infertility effects from reduced formaldehyde exposure is not reflected in this analysis in order to remain consistent with Taskinen (1999), but could be included by simply extending the ages considered.
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